US & Iran Weigh Truce Extension; Stocks Extend Record Highs

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.
Here are the stories we're following today, Karen.
Momentum is building in the market for a possible longer
ceasefire between the US and Iran, the source tells Bloomberg News.
Both sides are considering a two week extension to allow
for more talks around contentious issues like reopening the Strait
of horror moves and Iran's nuclear program. White House Press
Secretary Caroline Levitt says the US has not asked for
a formal extension yet.
We've remained very much engaged in these negotiations. In these talks,
you heard from the Vice President directly and the President
this week that these conversations are productive and ongoing, and
that's where we are right now.
Press Secretary Caroline Levitt at the White House. We get
more from Bloomberg's Jumana Bursecci in Dubai.
No date has been set, there's no official confirmation yet
that these talks are happening. Actually, the White House Press
Secretory Caroline Levitt said yesterday that the US had not
put in a formal proposal to extend the seasfire by
two weeks, but she did say if another round of
talks are going to be held, they would likely be
held in Islamabad in Pakistan. And Pakistan for their port
I will say are working the diplomatic channels aggressively. The
Army chief site semineers in Tehran for ceasefire talks and
meeting with some of the chief negotiators on the Iranian side.
The Iranian state media are reporting that the US have
relayed a message via the Pakistani mediators to the Iranian side,
so we'll see what their response is going to be.
In the meantime, Bloomberg's Jumani Barsetti reports the US naval
blockade of the Strait of Hornmuz continues. Iran State Television
reports the Iranian military sees prolonging the blockade as a
prelude to a breach of the ceasefire.
Well if in former Secretary of State John Carey played
a key role in the nuclear deal with the Rum
that President Trump rejected in his first term, he tells
Bloomberg's fancy in Lachwa could have been avoided if the
President had stuck with the deal.
What's happened is a war that had been certainly postponed
and probably avoided. Most likely it was made inevitable almost
when the President pulled out, and we are where we
are but now.
Secretary Kerry says the blockade of the Strait of Juamuz
could be a smart decision to pressure Iran, but only
if the US is willing to compromise.
The Karen talks are scheduled to continue now between Israel
and Lebanon, and Israeli official says Prime Minister Benjamin NETANYAHUO
and Lebanese President Joseph Ayun will speak today following ambassador
level talks in the US earlier this week. Those were
the first direct discussions between the Middle Eastern countries in
more than three decades.
Month in a series of suspiciously well timed trades in
the oil futures market during the war has caught the
attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bloomberg's Amy Morris
has more from Washington.
Investigators are looking into instances over a peer of about
two weeks where trading volumes surged just before major announcements
and policy pivots by President Trump that raised alarm bells
about the potential misuse of non public information tied to
Trump's shifting stance on the war in Iran. The CFTC
wants to see the data from the exchanges, including who
was behind the trades. That investigation is now focused on
trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging to CME
Group and enter Continental Exchange in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.
Amy Thanks back on Wall Street. The global stock market
rally continues this morning. Stocks in Japan closed at an
all time high. The MSCI All Country Index, which had
dropped as much as nine percent since the start of
the war, has erased those declines, and the S and
P five hundred closed above the seven thousand level for
the first time, while the Nasdaq one hundred also ended
the yesterday session at an all time high. Wall Street
veteran Ed Yardenny says investors are looking past the war
and focusing now on fundamentals.
When you look at the history of geopolitical crises, especially
as they affected the S and P five hundred, history
shows that geopolitical crisis turned out to be great buying opportunities.
So just when everything looks most dire and grim, that's
when investors come in and conclude that the war will
eventually end and peace will follow.
At Yard Denny with your Denny Research notes the S
and P five hundred reached its bottom on March thirtieth, Well, Nathan.
Despite the market optimism, voices at this week's World Bank
and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington are more cautious.
IMF Managing Director Chris de Alina Georgieva says investors maybe
underestimating the economic damage from the war.
Why are markets so optimistic? I think part of the
reason is because there is a high concentration of financial
assets in the United States. US economy is doing well.
It is relatively not so impacted because the US is
a now export and not importer, and that creates that
picture of dynamism and vibrancy. But I can tell you
that's not the story of the rest of the world.
In the rest of the world already there is a
lot of pain.
I am F Managing Director Kristallina Georgiaeva made the comments
in an interview with Bloomberg's Friends, saying, lochwa catch our
full conversation with Georgiaeva and former Secretary of State John
Kerry and our new video experience on the Bloomberg Business App.
Well, let's check some stocks in the news this morning. Now,
Karen Taiwan's Semiconductor Manufacturing is raising its revenue outlook for
the year. The upbeat forecast underscores the resilience of AICHIP
demand despite concerns about the economic fallout from the war
CSMC is the main chip maker for Nvidia and Apple.
It expects revenue to grow more than thirty percent.
This afternoon, Nathan we get earnings from a streaming giant, Netflix,
and Bloomberg's Town Busby has a preview.
Well, this is the first earnings report from Netflix and
to walked away from an ugly battle to acquire most
of Warner Brothers.
Discovery.
Analysts expect the company to report a fifteen percent increase
in revenue thanks to live sporting and concert events and
from advertising. Raising its subscription fee in March to twenty
dollars for the standard plan without ads also helped Bloomberg
consensus calls for revenue of twelve point one seven billion
dollars on earnings per share of seventy six cents. Tom
Busby Bloomberg Radio Okay Tom.
Thanks to a federal jury in New York has found
Live Nation Entertainment illegally monopolized the live events industry and
overcharged fans. The verdict marks a major win for a
coalition of thirty three states and Washington, DC that pursued
this case despite the Justice Department's recent settlement that allowed
Live Nation to keep its ticket master unit. Jenniferree is
a senior antitrust litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
I think this ruling is significant because, honestly, it's been
over the years very very difficult for plaintiffs to win
monopolization suits against bacmpanies, and in particular a suit like
this one where the federal government is no longer in
the case because they settled, and it's a group of
states only going out on their own. And it just
shows that that plaintiffs can win these monopolization suits where
they have compelling evidence, even where it's really hard fought
by the defense.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jenri says the states are now seeking
as much as seven hundred million dollars in damages and
possibly additional penalties. Live Nation says it will appeal.
Time now for a look at some many of their
stories making news in New York and around the world,
and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.
Michael, good Morning, Good Morning Karen. Today, New Jersey voters
will pick Governor Monkey Cheryl's replacement in Congress. Cheryl had
to give up her eleventh district seat after being elected.
Governor Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway is the Republican nominee.
One of my big platforms is to freeze taxes for
first time home buyers.
Home ownership in New Jersey is more challenging than ever.
Progressive Annaliliya Mahea is the Democratic nominee.
We lost the healthcare tax credits because of the Republican Party,
and now healthcare costs are up one hundred and seventy
five percent in one year. We lost energy tax credits
and that's why energy prices are up.
Audio courtesy of ABC seven New York City. Dorman and
other staff voted to authorize a strike, which would disrupt
operations at co ops, condos, and apartment buildings as soon
as April twenty first. The workers are pushing back against
possible reductions in healthcare coverage, advocating for pay hikes and
demanding that building owners strengthen the pension fund. The fallout
continues after Vice President Vance made comments about Pope Leo's
criticism of the war in Iran. The Vice President said
Pope Leo should be careful when he talks about matters
of theology. Yesterday, House Speaker Mike Johnson weighed in on
the comments.
It is a very well settled matter of a Christian theology.
There's something called the just war doctrine, a time to
every purpose under heaven.
The pope criticized President Trump's rhetoric about destroying a civilization.
New Yorkers have been soaking up some sun as some
parts of the country deal with damaging severe storms. The
East Coast is enjoying eighty five to ninety degree days.
This woman was out in Washington Square Park.
How abready the.
UVS eight so trying to tan.
Yeah, got some.
Ice cream today. Once again it will be mostly sunny man.
Huh.
Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you
wanted with Bloomberg News now, not Michael barn, this is
Bloomberg hearen.
Thanks Michael.
Time now for our Bloomberg sports update, and for that
we bring in John stash hour.
Thanks Garrett Twomore NBA play in games. Philadelphia had to
play without Joe Lmby due to his appendectomy. The Sixers
still beat Orlando one oh nine ninety seven. That makes
Philly the seventh seed in the East. They'll play the
Celtics in the first round. It means the Magic will
play again on Friday at home against Charlotte and the
Winter will be the eighth seed. Played Detroit Golden Stay
led by Steph Curry over the Clippers in LA. That
moves the Warriors to a game tomorrow in Phoenix to
see who'll be the eighth seed in the West. The
season over for the Clippers. That's the Bloomberg Sports Update.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.
Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
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Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning on Nathan Hager. There's some optimism now that
the break in fighting between the US and Iran could
last a little longer. Bloomberg News has learned both countries
are considering a ceasefire extension the White House. Press Secretary
Caroline Levitt says the US hasn't asked for one yet.
I saw some reporting, again bad reporting this morning, that
we had formally requested an extension of the ceasefire. That
is not true at this moment.
That was Press Secretary Caroline Levit at the White House
yesterday joining us this morning from Dubai is Bloomberg Mida
Least corresponded Jumana Brossecci, the anchor of Bloomberg Horizons. So
Jumana just to pick up on what Caroline leve was saying.
What is true this morning? What do we know about
the prospect for further talks? Good morning?
Yeah, well, Caroline love it. They're saying that the US
had not formally requested a c's for our extension. But
she also went on to say that if there were
going to be if there was going to be a
second round of talks, it would likely happen in Islamabad.
And we know that the diplomatic channels are being actively worked.
Over the last twenty four hours, the Chief of Army
of Pakistan made a visit to Tehran. Apparently he is
conveying messages from the US, and those messages have been
relaid back and forth, so Pakistan also acting as sort
of a message go between between the US and Iran here.
At the same time, the Pakistani Prime Minister, long alongside
the delegation, is making a trip through the region. Yesterday
he was in Saudi Arabia. Today he's heading to Katar,
and then he's going to Turkey and again all of
those three countries, increasingly more so Saudi Arabia as well,
looking to play some form of a diplomatic mediation role
should these talks go ahead. But I should say at
this point, no time and no venue has been confirmed.
Okay, Well, we've heard from President Trump saying that the
next two days could be key toward getting potentially a
big deal. I believe that was two days ago. What's
the prospect of that at this point.
Well, there is a clock that's sticking in the background,
and it's less to do with Trump's deadline and more
to do with the ceasefire x fire, which I guess
that goes back to President Trump, But technically it expires
on the twenty second over here in the region, twenty
first in the US, and so we do have a
couple of more days before decision has to be made
about whether that ceasfire expires, whether it continues. Remember yesterday
we were reporting that at the same time as we're
speaking about the big efforts on the diplomatic side of things,
there has continued to be a build up military assets
in the region as well. So perhaps from the US perspective,
looking to continually apply a pressure to the Iranian side
to come back to the table. But at the same time,
you've got all of those mediators and even I would say,
and I should have mentioned this before, even the UAE
received a call from the Iranian Speaker of the parliament yesterday,
the first time that UE has spoken to Iran since
the inception of the war. So there is a feeling
from the region that there's momentum to de escalate. What
shape or format we just don't know yet.
Okay, Well, in the meantime, of course, we have this
trickle moving through the strait of hormones, the blockade of
the blockade as it were, How does that potentially complicate things?
And are Iran's leaders in Iran's military on the same
page when it comes to enforcement of the blockade.
Yeah, So what we understand is there are a couple
of sticking points still when it comes to those negotiations.
One of them, of course, still the fate of the strait,
so to speak. The Central commands that are saying, and
they said they've iterated this overnight that they have full
superiority over maritime shipping, that there have been around a
dozen merchant vessels that have been forced to turn back
and go back to Iranian ports. As you say, there's
still a trickle of vessels coming in. They're being closely monitored,
and it's quite difficult to monitor because many of them
just turned their signals off as they're passing through the strait.
But the point is we're very far away from where
we were before the war even kicked off, and now
half a dozen vessels going through the street today isn't
going to move the needle on energy. But I think
the objective, as we spoke about yesterday, is really for
the US to apply increasing the economic pressure on Iran
to cut off this key lifeline for their oil exports,
that when they do come to the next round of negotiations,
they potentially would be more open to give concessions.
This is Bloombery Daybreak, your morning podcast and the stories
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