959: Week 15 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha, j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eaeson in this episode nine and fifty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show was a little disappointing. The quarterback streamers were fine, but none of them were great. I called a pretty mediocre week on that front. Nick Westbrook, A Keene did nothing, Dontavian Wicks, Elijah Moore, and Wandel Robinson were kind of blah, and the deep sleepers of Trey Tucker and Parker Washington they were bad picks.

00:00:41
Speaker 2: Now.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: On the plus side, I had one of the best sleeper calls of the season with Tim Patrick since here McCormick had a decent day and Brandon Cooks found the end zone two. I talked up Isaiah Davis elsewhere, but didn't have the Breeze Hall information by the time that this show went out, so I wasn't able to officially lock him in as a sleeper. Unfortunately, it was a pretty bad week overall. Though It's the fantasy playoffs now, so I really want to end the season on a high notes. So let's get to this, but before we get to the Sleepers, I want to remind you to check out Underdog right now. Over on Underdog you can enter into Snake draft for this week's late of games, but there are playoff contests available for you too. If you think you have a better grasp on the league's playoff picture than others, then you can have a serious edge right now in those contests. To check them out and more, head to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog app when you sign up.

00:01:31
Speaker 2: Of course, use promo code late Round.

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Speaker 1: That'll get you a really nice to pause and offer, as well as my rest of season rankings if you still want those, that's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code late Round. Now, as usual, we'll start with the look at players roster in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll look at quarterbacks, and we'll start with Aaron Rodgers. Rogers had his first three hundred yard game in ages last week. He gets a Jags defense this that's the best matchup at the NFL for quarterbacks on the season. The jacksonvill allow the most adjusted fantasy points of the position. They lead the league and adjusted passing yards allowed too. The Jets have an ok enough twenty two point implied team total, so I think Rogers can find your lineup as like a QB two this week Jamis Winston as well. The Browns get the Chiefs in Kansas City has been a slightly above average opponent for quarterbacks this year. Cleveland has an applied team total over twenty points, so it's not like sports books think that they won't be able to score. And look, the bottom line is that Jamis Winston has gotten it done since becoming a starter. At least from a fantasy perspective. He's averaging for twenty standard Fantasy points per game, and his average opponent has ranked twenty third and adjusted points allowed to the position, meaning they've been far below average. From a matchup standpoint, Kansas City is thirteenth, so I think Winston is a solid enough bet this week. Now, running back, I'm gonna just quickly call out Patrick Taylor if Isaac Garndo can't go on Thursday. At this moment, I don't know if Grenda will be in or out, but if he's out, I'd anticipate Taylor getting most of the work in that backfield or at least leading that backfield and touches and the Rams are a pretty average matchup overall for running backs, next to Sincere McCormick, who still needs to be rostered in way more leagues. The Raiders get the Falcons, and Atlanta's low key actually been pretty good against running backs this year. It's their secondary that's the bigger problem. But even if Alexander Madison's able to play, the Raiders may just give McCormick a shot to be the early down guy. That's what Antonio Appears essentially said on Wednesday. And it's a game where Vegas is only a three and a half point underdog, maybe this game ends up being closer. That matters a lot because the Raiders have used the mir Abdullah as their pass catcher even during the Sincere McCormick stretch. So I have McCormick as a higher end RB three this week in that same game as Tyler Aljear Because there's a chance that gamescript doesn't go the way that we think and Atlanta does do well against the Raiders, Algier could be in play. He's seen running back rushers of twenty nine percent twenty three and a half percent and thirty six percent in three of his last four games. Vegas is a team that you can definitely run on. They're below average and running back rush yards allowed versus expected, and they rank in the top ten as an opponent for running backs and adjusted points allowed. Now, Jean Robinson should have a big day, but Algier might be able to sneak in eight to ten carries. That makes him a deep league flex option. And then a more obvious sleeper this week is Isaiah Davis. As I said in the fifty Transaction Show, the Jets really made their backfield to fifty to fifty split this past week without Breeze Hall, and it's not sounding great for haul this week, and the Jets get the Jags, the second best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. Braylan Allen is obviously in play, but this is a great spot for Davis in your flex two now wide receiver this week, even if Lad mcconkey's back. I don't think Quinton Johnston is a terrible play, and Josh Palmer works here too, but QJ had a twenty four percent target share this past week without McConkie. Palmer had a season high thirty one percent target chair and now they get a better matchup this week against the Buccaneers. It's a team that ranks as a top ten favorable opponent for wide receivers by justin points allowed. If McConkie goes, I think there's way more volatility, but they're still viable in deeper formats. The Browns could be getting Cedric Tillman back this week, but like I've talked about before in the show, each of those wide receivers they play a specific role in the offense. For Elijah Moore, it's more of a slot role. He's usually in the sixty to seventy percent slot range, more than Jerry Judy, more than Cedric Tillman. Well, the Browns get the Chiefs this week, and Kansas City is the number one team an adjusted slot target shair allowed to wide receivers, meaning teams against the Chiefs are using their slot wide outs more than usual, a lot more than usual, and that could really benefit more this week, especially with David and Joku now banged up. Now, another slot matchup to target this week is to Mario Douglas. He's averaging a target share per game rate of about twenty two percent in completed games with Drake May and while his ceiling hasn't been super high, his floor is ok in PPR formats. This week, the Patriots get the Cardinals. Arizona hasn't been a great matchup for wide receivers this year, but they've allowed a well above average yards per route run to the slot, as well as the seventh highest adjusted target share to that area of the field. Douglas has run seventy eight percent of his routes from the slot this year, so the matchup is there. Nick Westbrook A Kine did not come through last week really for the first time in a while. He also saw just a six percent target share when he had seen three straight games with at least a twenty percent target share.

00:06:47
Speaker 2: This week, the.

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Speaker 1: Titans are involved in the game with a forty six and a half point total. That's not bad for them, and they're four and a half point underdogs against the Bengals. There could be a negative game script involving more pass and I don't think the six percent target share that westbrook Akine saw last week should be considered the norm. He still had a ninety one percent route share, so I think he does make some sense this week. I think a lot of times we just assume that teams who are big favorites are only gonna run the ball, like Baltimore this week. Yes, they'll probably have a low pass rate, but you've got to create a good environment in the first place. You have to score points to get to the point of running the football. No. I bring that up because Rashad Bateman is facing a Giants team this week that ranks dead last in the league and deep ball completion rate allowed this year, and Bateman's number one on the Ravens and averaged up the target. It sounds like his knee issue is now behind him, so he's a high variance play for Week fifteen. Zach Ertz is an easy go to for me this week at tight end. The Commanders just lost Noah Brown. They get a Saints team that ranks is a top ten favorable opponent for tight ends this year by justin points allowed. Ertz has seen at least a twenty percent target share in each of his last four and six of his last seven. He's in a great spot now. I like Ertz more than Hunter Henry, but Hunter Henry's in play too solely due to volume. His matchup's not great against Arizona, but he's seen target totals of nine to eight to nine over his last three games. He's accounted for about twenty five percent of New England's targets during this time. He's still under that fifty percent rostered mark, so he works as a sleeper. Will now take a look at players roster and in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo league, so we're digging deeper here now.

00:08:33
Speaker 2: Quarterback. I don't mind Bryce Young this week.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a betting tout, but I do think this forty two and a half point total is a little bit low considering both of these teams, the Panthers and the Cowboys. They run at a decent pace. Dallas is the fourth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed, and Bryce has played so much better over the last month and he's averaged seventeen and a half points per game over his last three and Cooper Rush belongs in the discussion too. Carolina is a six best matchup for quarterbacks and the Cowboys had the best pressure rate matchup in the league this week. That's in terms of how much pressure the Panthers generate and how much pressure the Cowboys give up. Rush is certainly not great, but he's averaging about fifteen points per game as starter. That's not horrendous, so as a dart throw he does make some sense. I got Jerry McNichols in this year because the Commanders are pretty big favorites over the Saints this week, and we've seen it with Washington this year. They won't be afraid to give their backup running backs some work if this game is out of reach. Not only that, but McNichols could just see some work naturally with Austin Eckler sidelined. New Orleans is a top five matchup for running backs, and they have a lot eleven more running back rushing yards per game versus their opponent's season long averages, so you could look mcnicholls way. Sean Tucker's the other running back in this tier. Only if Bucky Irving doesn't go, the Bucks get a pretty mediocre matchup against the Chargers, but I would imagine that Tucker could see some short yardage stuff and maybe double digit touches. He did see less work last week than we'd probably want, even when Bucky was out, but that's why he's a deep sleeper. We at least know the ceiling is there given what he did earlier this season against the Saints.

00:10:12
Speaker 2: Now, like I said earlier, Noah Brown has an injury.

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Speaker 1: That's sidelining him, and I think Diami Brown is the direct one to one replacement there. Luke McCaffrey's a slot player. While Noah Brown has run just nineteen percent of his routes from the slot this year, Diami Brown is at twenty one percent. The Commander's get a Saints team that actually has struggled against the slot, so keep that in mind, but they've just been beatable in general. They rank is the twelfth best matchup by justin points allowed. The Commanders have a healthy implied team total over twenty five points and the pressure rate matchup is pretty good here, which may allow Brown to get down the field and make one of those splash plays that we've seen him make in the past. He's a pretty high variant sleeper, but he does make some sense. And then if you want another big play guy, Marvin Mims, Yes, Marvin Mims. I don't feel great about it either, but mimsaw his rout participation rise to forty two percent the last time we saw the Broncos. That number had been closer to twenty five to thirty percent most of the season. He also set a double digit percentage target share in three of his last four. He's getting a top half matchup for wide receivers and Indianapolis has been below average at stopping deep ball completions. He's a hail Mary almost literally, but that's why he's a deep sleeper. And then at tight end, Stone's smart Will Disley is doubtful this weekend. Smart was the one who stepped in last week and ran the most routes of tight end for the Chargers outside of Disley. He made a super athletic catch. He got three of three targets for fifty four yards. Now the Chargers get a matchup against a Buccaneers team that's giving up the seventh most adjusted points of tight ends this year. He's definitely in play, and that's especially true if lad McConkey is out.

00:11:54
Speaker 2: Now.

00:11:54
Speaker 1: As for our defensive streamers, I talked about Washington earlier this week.

00:11:57
Speaker 2: They're in play. They work.

00:11:59
Speaker 1: I don't mind the Falcons against the Raiders, the Bengals against the Titans, and the Cardinals against the Patriots. Now I know the Cardinals burned you last week, but New England has had trouble protecting their quarterback all year. Now, looking at some underdog picks, let's go to Zach Ertz. I'm gonna go higher than thirty six and a half receiving yards Noah Brown being out good matchup. The only fear here will they go with a really run heavy approach, which is very very possible. And then I also like Bryce Young higher than two hundred and four and a half passing yards. There could be a lot of plays running this game, and he's been north of that mark in two of his last three. He was about fifteen yards off of it last week, but he was also going up against the Eagles. This is an easier matchup than that. You can use those picks if you want to, Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the Underdog app. When you sign up, you know the promo code Late Round. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shirting where pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and jeffre to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. I'm on Blue Sky as well with the same handle. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly Mailbag episode, and there's another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll be in your ears then