600: 15 Transactions for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacherretha Jyja Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode six hundred of the Late Round Podcast, the many shows that are part of the FANDEL podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Before get into the transactions this week, I want to remind you about the FanDuel Sunday Million Contest. The prize bowls of Whopping one point twenty five million dollars with first place taking home two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. This week. All you have to do is head over to fandel today and click on the NFL Sunday Million Contest. Draft your lineup of player, sit back and enjoy some Sunday NFL football. Go to fennel dot com today to participate in the NFL Sunday Million. Eligibility destrictions apply. Go to fenda dot com or download the Fandle app for more details. It's a waiver wire focused fifteen transaction show today because that's what matters most this time of so let's get to it. Sell the Miami Dolphins backfield So this past week, the Dolphins had some COVID related issues in their backfield. At first, we thought that maybe Philip Lindsay was going to be the lead back, and then maybe it was gonna be Malcolm Brown with Miles Gaskin then playing. Everyone figured that Miles Gaskin was going to have a big day against the Jets, but no, it was Duke Johnson. Johnson handled sixty eight point eight percent of the team's running back rushes this past week. That was the fifth highest mark by any Miami running back this season. He had twenty two carries for one hundred and seven yards and a pair of scores. But let's give this some context. It was against the Jets. When looking at schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed by position, New York against running backs has been the most advantageous matchup in fantasy this year. On the season, they've allowed about eleven more points to be scored on them versus their opponent's season long averages. So let's say a team walked in to face the Jets and that team's backfield averaged fifteen fantasy points per game against the Jets, We'd expect that team backfield to score over twenty six fantasy points over the next two weeks. For Miami, they get the Saints and the Titans. Those teams rank thirty second and twenty ninth and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs this year. They're tough matchups. And then on top of that, because Duke Johnson's big game, what if the Dolphins just added another head to that backfield. It's just honestly a mess. And with those two matchups, I would not be wanting to rely on any Miami running back from here on out. Add Amen Ross Saint Brown. So I talked about Saint Brown last week, but over his last three now, he's seen target shares of thirty one point six percent, thirty two point four percent, and forty two point three percent. He's gotten twelve, twelve, and eleven targets over his last three games, and he's finished as a top ten wide receiver and two of those contests. Like I always say, you need a buy volume in fantasy football, Saint Brown is getting that vo. I don't care what offense he's in if he's seeing twelve targets a game. And not only that, but in Week sixteen, Detroit has a pretty good matchup against Atlanta so definitely add Amen ros Saint Brown this week if he's still out there, add Craig Reynolds. So this past week, things really didn't go that well for the two running backs on top of Detroit's depth chart. DeAndre Swift he has a shoulder injury. He wasn't able to go in Week fifteen, and Jamal Williams is dealing with COVID nineteen. That allowed Craig Reynolds to once again lead that Detroit backfield, and he saw a better running back rush here in Week fifteen than he did in Week fourteen. In Week fourteen, that running back rush share was fifty eight percent. This past week it was seventy nine percent. He carried the ball twenty six times against Arizona. He had one hundred and twelve yards on the ground. Now, I will say his role as a receiver has not been very good over these two games. He's about a four point six percent target share per game. But let's just pretend that Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift can't go in Week sixteen. That means that Craig Reynolds would once again step up and have a good matchup against Atlanta. So I think that you should add him this week, although there is a chance if something happens and things get shuffled in that Detroit backfield, add Ronald Jones. So if Ronald Jones is on your waiver wire, he's the top priority this week. It sounds like Leonard Fournet's going to miss a game or two with a hamstring injury, and considering the Buccaneers get the Jets in Week seventeen, why would they rush him back. So you should have the expectation that Fournette is not going to participate in the fantasy football season from here on out. That's just my guess, but you should at least plan for that. And that means that Ronald Jones is in store for a lot of work, and that's work in a very good offense. Now, Fournette had seen a double digit percentage target share in all but one game this year heading into Week fifteen, and when Ronald Jones was getting a big workload last year, he wasn't seeing that many looks through the air, at least compared to Fournette. Jones had ten games last year with ten or more carries. He ended up with a double digit percent his target share in just three of those games, So don't just assume that Ronald Jones is going to see Leonard Fournette's work. The good news, though, is that Ronald Jones average over twenty two touches per game without four Nette and twenty twenty, so he's gonna see a lot of work. He's just never been that much of a pass catcher, and that's likely why the Bucks opted for Keyshawn Vaughn a bit in that game against the Saints. Both Jones and Vaughn ended that game with two targets, so Jones should see a lot of work on the ground, and he should still see some work through the air. I'm not saying he's gonna have a zero percent target share. We just shouldn't expect him to be Leonard Fournette regardless. There's gonna be plenty of opportunities. It's a great offense you need to be adding Ronald Jones, add Tyler Johnson, Scottie Miller, and bershad Perriman. So an even bigger injury to the Bucks this week was with Chris Godwin. He tore his ACL so he's done for the year, and then on top of that, Mike Evans heard his hamstring his Week six is in question right now. Now. Fortunately Tampa Bay is getting Antonio Brown back this week, but these are still brutal blows to this offense. Now, replacing Godwin and maybe Evans will be Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, and Bershod Perriman. According to Pro Football Focus, against the Saints, Johnson ran fifty routes, Miller ran forty, and Johnson also played twelve more snaps, but Paraman didn't play because he was out on the COVID nineteen list. He could play a role this week as well, and moving forward. Remember a couple of weeks ago he ran ahead of both Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller, but he did take a back seat in Week fourteen to Tyler Johnson. So what does this all mean? What am I saying here? Who should you prioritize? I would say you should prioritize Tyler Johnson. He's now played more than the other two wide receivers over the last couple of weeks, and Chris Godwin plays a lot from the slot. He's played about seventy percent of his snaps from that area of the field this year. Brashod Perriman's a p perimeter player, and then Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson have both played similar snap rates from the slot this year, but in Week fifteen, Johnson ran ten more routes from the slot than Scotty Miller did, so that all seems to favor Tyler Johnson, especially if Evans is able to go, because with Evans you get Evans and Ab on the perimeter and Tyler Johnson in the slot. If Evans can't go, there's a risk for Scotty Miller that Prashad Perriman plays on the perimeter. With Tyler Johnson, I think he's just the slot guy, and with Chris Godwin out, that's why I would prioritize Johnson ahead of the other Buccaneers wide receivers. AD Gabriel Davis. So I talked about Gabriel Davis last week. He was an obvious ad with Emmanuel Sanders banged up and without Emmanuel Sanders in the lineup in Week fifteen, Davis saw twenty two point six percent of Buffalo's targets and he found the end zone twice. He's now scored four touchdowns over his last three games, and through Sunday's games, he's leading the NFL in red zone targets during this timeframe. Gabriel Davis is going to be relevant as long as Emmanuel Sanders is sidelined because he's seeing a good number of looks and he's seeing highly valuable looks. And honestly, guys, even if Emmanuel Sanders is healthy, it's tough to imagine at this point that Buffalo just makes Gabriel Davis a part time player once again. Adds Samaj p Ryan. Joe Mixon has been struggling in fantasy football. His highest target share over his last three games is just five point nine percent. He's failed to get any higher than that and four of his last five and during this five game stretch, p Ryan has out targeted him thirteen to eight. Now, Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury at the time of this recording, I don't know if he's going to play this weekend. I don't know the status of that injury in full. But you can't really just wait and see what happens. You have to add Samaj p Ran his backup because he would see more work on the ground if Mixon is sidelined, and we already know that he can play a receiving role. So it's definitely worth it to get pe Ryan, no matter if you have mixing or not. Ad Marquez Valdez scantling. So I've brought up MVS on the show a lot over the last month, but his percent roster number is still just forty one percent. Over on Yahoo. MVS has hit a twenty percent target share in three of his last four games, and he finished as a top ten wide receiver in weekly scoring twice over this time. I know I mentioned that on yesterday's ten Trend Show, and like I said on yesterday's ten Trend Show, he's the perfect boomer bust player for underdog teams, for teams needing that boost. There's a player out there in a lot of leagues who's seeing twenty percent of Aaron Rodgers targets. You should want that in fantasy football, add Justin Jackson. So Austin Eckler was dealing with an ankle injury this past week. That led to Justin Jackson seeing a season high thirty nine point four percent running back rush share in that Chargers offense. He had thirteen carries and he turned them into eighty six yards. Now, there were some conflicting reports on Monday about Austin Eckler testing positive for COVID nineteen or going on the COVID nineteen list. At the time of this recording, he's not on that list, but the risk is obviously there, not just with Austin Eckler, but any player across the league right now. So yeah, you could argue that Justin Jackson could get COVID two, but no one's handcuffing Justin Jackson. Justin Jackson's the handcuff to Austin Eckler. All relevant handcuffs need to be rostered right now, and that includes Justin Jackson. Add Cole kmet Kamen has actually seen a decent target share in twenty twenty one. He has a nineteen percent target chair this year, and he's coming off a game where he caught six of nine targets for seventy one yards and the Bears get Seattle in Week sixteen. Seattle's been one of the worst teams this year against the tight end position and adjustin Fantasy points allowed. So Cole Comett makes a lot of sense as a tight end streamer. Add Justin Fields, and the guy throwing him the rock is Justin Fields, Who's been very, very good in fantasy football. Thanks to a late game touchdown against the Vikings, Fields was able to finish as a QB one in Week fifteen. He now has four QB one performances across his last four completed games played, and as I alluded to last week, a lot of that has to do with his increase in rushing. He's now averaging eight and a half rush attempts in over sixty four rushing yards per game over this four game sample. That's amazing, That's exactly what we want. So I would feel fine streaming him against Seattle this week at Jimmy Garoppolo. So I've been talking about Jimmy G a lot on this podcast too. He's been pretty reliable during this second half of the season. He's not producing like a high ceiling, which is why I would still opt for justin Fields. But Jimmy G has averaged seventeen point three points per game since Week eight, and he's had a low of eleven point two points. He hasn't sunk your fantasy teams, and against Tennessee this week, a team that ranks eighth and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, he makes for a decent streaming choice. Add the New Orleans Saints defense, So the Saints are rostered in fifty three percent of Yahoo leagues. They're not totally a streaming option, but it's Week sixteen. It can't hurt if I just throw out some defensive plays. New Orleans has one of the best schedules for their defense in week sixteen and seventeen. They get Miami in Week sixteen and then Carolina in Week seventeen. According to my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, those are two top ten opponents for an opposing fantasy football defense. Fandals Sportsbook this week has this game against Miami at a thirty nine point over under, and New Orleans is a three point home favorite. That alone means that they make sense as a streamer. Hold the New England Patriots defense. So the Patriots get the Bills this week, and Buffalo is a tough matchup. I would understand if some of you don't want to use the Patriots and if you have a better option. Only three defenses against Buffalo have finished in the top ten and weekly scoring this year, and that's why the Bills are a bottom five team for opposing defenses to face and adjusted fantasy points allowed. But if you're gonna replace New England as a defense, don't drop them. Because in week seventeen they get Jacksonville. You absolutely want to use the Patriots against the Jags. So again it's understandable if you have another defense this week. I don't think the Patriots are like that horrific of a play either. I'm just saying, please don't drop them. Add the Seattle Seahawks defense. So I think the most traditional streamer this week is Seattle. They're decent home favorites against the Bears in Week sixteen, and by the way, if you get Seattle this week, you could even play them in week seventeen they get Detroit. Those are two plus matchups and ad justin fantasy points allowed, and that gives Seattle one of the best schedules in all of fantasy football over the next two weeks. The sixteen transaction this week that you can't get my fifteen transactions Calum over on number fire dot com. It's another ad. It's to add James O'Shaughnessy. I've talked about James O'Shaughnessey on my Sleeper show throughout the season, and while he's likely not going to be someone that just lights it up in fantasy. He's a reasonable option for tight end streamers. He's averaged a target chair per game of over fifteen percent since his return from injury, and in Week sixteen, the Jags get the Jets, it's actually a defense that Jacksonville might be able to move the ball on. Though we said that last week against Houston and we saw how that worked out. But even last week O'Shaughnessy also caught four of his four targets for sixty yards. He was a usable tight end, so I think we could see that happen again in Week sixteen given this matchup. That's going to know for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.