706: 10 Trends for Week 10

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha Jay Jake Zacher Reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zach er Eeson in this episode seven hundred and six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. The week ten NFL Sunday Million is officially live on Fandel. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one point four million dollars in cash prizes, including a two hundred and fifty thousand dollars first place prize, and it's all for just five dollars. Sunday is approaching quickly, so head to fandle and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the Fandle LAP for more details. It's a ten trend show, Let's get to them. Trend one this week is that Juju Smith Schuster is kind of happening. A tough start to the season, but he's currently wide receiver twenty one and PPR points per game a wide receiver after finishing his a top ten wide out in three consecutive games. He's averaged over one hundred and eight yards per game over his last three. Now, his target shar has remained similar during this stretch, but he's seeing slightly different usage, and not in the way that you might think. From weeks one through five, Juju had four to fifteen plus air yard targets zero point eight per game. Over his last three during the stretch of high end production, he's only had one fifteen plus aeryard target. His air yards per target rate has actually dropped by almost three full yards in and out of this split, meaning he's actually been used closer to the line of scrimmage during this productive stretch. Now, his fantasy production has been better because of touchdowns too. He scored twice in his last three games, and the Chiefs have seen a little bit more passing, allowing for a target per game rate increase of a little over one. But Juju's being used more like his usage from Pittsburgh. That may not be a bad thing, though. Trend two is about another wide receiver putting up low key good numbers, and that's Alan Lazard. He's banged up, but Lazard has scored at least eleven and a half PPR points per game in every single contest since Week two, He's been a top fifteen wide receiver in fantasy. During the stretch, He's been pretty amazing, and it feels like the fantasy community isn't giving him enough credit. He just hasn't had that blow up game, so people weren't overly excited about him, but make no mistake, Alan Lazard should be in your fantasy lineup most weeks at this point. We saw a jump and snapshare from Isaiah Spiller this past week. Back in Week seven, Spiller had a six percent snap share in the Chargers offense. Nothing special out of their bye week, though the Chargers use Spiller more. They put him on the field on over eighteen percent of their snaps that resulted in a season high thirty two percent running back rush share. This doesn't mean a whole lot in terms of immediate production, but it does change the handcuff landscape a little bit, and rookies do tend to perform better to the second half of their first seasons, so this is definitely something to monitor and see if Spiller's role continues to grow. JD. McKissick was out this past week with a neck injury that allowed Antonio Gibson to hit his highest snap share since Week one. He played fifty eight percent of Washington's snaps and what was a pretty neutral game script. Gibson's now seen a double digit percentage target share in each of his last five games, and he's posting respectable PPR outputs thanks to the Commanders using him more frequently as a receiver. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Antonio Gibson, He's still the most talented running back in that backfield. Kenyan Drake saw almost eighty three percent of Baltimore's running back rushes against the Saints on Monday Night. That high of a running back rush here has been hit only once since twenty eighteen in the Baltimore offense. It seems pretty clear who the guy is in Baltimore. As long as Gus Edwards and JK. Dobbins are sidelined. Drake has now hit sixteen plus PPR points in three of his last four games. Justin Herbert has not been very good in Fantasy this year. He's the QB eleven in points per game when expectations were much higher. Part of the reason for that is injuries throughout the offense, yes, but Herbert's also not pushing it down the field very frequently. On the year, he's thrown at fifteen or more air yards and just thirteen point four percent of his attempts. Last year, that number was two percentage points higher. During his rookie year was almost four percentage points higher. More importantly, he's only completing thirty nine percent of those throws this season. Last year's completion rate on fifteen plus air yard throws it was closer to fifty percent. In other words, big plays aren't happening for LA at the same rate this year. Herbert's throwing it deep less and they're converting less. That's a huge reason for his down fantasy season. Cole Comet hit a twenty percent target share for the first time this season. On Sunday, he had a twenty two percent target chair. He ended up finding the end zone twice on six targets. From weeks one through eight, Comet had about a sixty eight percent route participation in that Bears offense. In Week nine, that number rows to about eighty percent, so his usage was a little bit better. But I don't think that we can sit here and say that KMMT is a full blown starter or anything. Yet this was his first tight end one performance on the year, and he's had a fourteen percent target share this season in that offense. And it's an offense. It's running the ball at the highest rate in the league. As a streamer, that's one thing. As a full time guy in your lineup, I think it's premature to say that. I know everyone's sick of Kansas City backfield talk, but I do have to note one thing. Clyde Edwards A Lair has now played the fewest snaps in that backfield and consecutive games. The Chiefs had some trouble running it against the Titans, so Jerrick McKinnon benefited because he's the hurry up back. But just wait for that run heavy script. That's when we might see more Isaiah Picchecko than we've seen. They've just had a couple of rough opponents for that. Since we started to see the shift in backfield snaps with Clyde Edwards Laire not seeing as much. Chris Godwin still hasn't scored this year, but his expected touchdown total isn't as high as you'd think. Godwin has averaged over nine targets per game. That number is actually over ten when you remove Week one. Despite this, he's only been expected to score between one and two touchdowns so far this year. Based on where he's seeing his touches, Pro Football Focuses expected points model has him at one point three expected touchdowns. Because he's not being used close to the end zone. Per PFF, Godwin doesn't have a single end zone target this year. He does have seven red zone targets and four targets from within the ten, but none of them have been in the end zone. Now I'd expect that to change a little bit moving forward. We have to remember that we can't assume usage is unchanging when talking regression. It would be surprising if Godwin finishes the year without an end zone target. That just helps explain why he hasn't found the end zone yet. Now. The last trend this week is about the Jets backfield. In Week eight, which was James Robinson's first game with the Jets, he saw thirty six percent of the team's running back rushes in a three percent target chair. He played twenty two percent of the team snaps. From Week eight to Week nine, Robinson saw his running back rush share jump by more than twelve percentage points, his target share by over five percentage points, and his snapshare it went from twenty two percent to forty percent. He's been dealing with a knee injury. He might not even be fully healthy yet. I think it just plays into the idea though, that Robinson is going to be a big part of this Jets backfield. And remember, like I talked about on last week's fifteen Transaction Show, the Jets have a really nice fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Reme'mb going to check out Lateround dot com. Otherwise, I will talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.