Biden Tries Again for Immigration Bill; Chip Plans if China Invades Taiwan

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:12.920 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and. 0:00:12.880 --> 0:00:15.960 I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:19.160 We begin with politics. President Biden is trying to bring 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:21.279 back a bill that has been all but left for 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:26.439 dead in the House, Bipartisan Immigration Reform. Bloomberg Steve Potisk 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:27.720 has the latest from Washington. 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:30.800 The President had a call last night with House Speaker 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:34.480 Mike Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, hours after 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:37.600 Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced he was bringing the bill 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:41.120 back to the floor. The measure would speed up deportations 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:44.280 and make it harder to apply for asylum, while allowing 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:48.320 more visas for legal immigration. Speaker Johnson declared the bill 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:51.880 dead on arrival three months ago after former President Trump 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.800 blasted it on social media as a great gift for Democrats. 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.520 The White House says President Biden told the GOP leaders 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:03.160 to quote stop playing politics and act quickly to pass 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:08.759 this bipartisan border legislation in Washington. Steve Potisk, Bloomberg Radio. 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:10.400 All right, Steve, thanks well. 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.360 Former President Donald Trump has hit a milestone in the 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:17.160 twenty twenty four campaign. He's outraised President Biden for the 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.399 first time in this election cycle. The Trump campaign and 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:23.880 the Republican National Committee took in seventy six million dollars 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:26.959 in April. That compares to fifty one million for President 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:30.480 Biden and the Democrats. The Biden campaign still has twice 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.840 as much cash on hand as the Trump team, at 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:35.720 one hundred and ninety two million dollars. Trump has held 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:39.319 several high profile fundraisers in recent weeks, including a Palm 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:41.760 Beach event hosted by billionaire John Paulson. 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:44.679 As the former president continues to raise that money, Karen, 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:48.080 He's doing it while his hush money trial continues. In Manhattan, 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:51.720 yesterday was a chaotic one as the judge had to 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.800 clear the court. Let's get more now from Bloomberg's John Tucker. 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:58.840 John Nathan Trump's lawyers call their second defense witness, attorney 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:02.760 Robert Costello, to testify about his interactions with the prosecution 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:07.160 star witness Michael Cohen. Costello repeatedly gave answers that went 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:11.200 beyond the questions, prompting Judge Juan Marschant to sustain objections 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:14.960 from prosecutors and strike the testimony after one such world 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:18.400 and Costello commented, Geez. The judge looked at him and 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:22.040 said I'm sorry, and then Costello said, stricken, referring to 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.760 his own remark, his antics got to be a little 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:27.720 too much for the judge. He stopped the proceedings, asked 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:30.880 the jury to leave. Mershawn lectured the witness, but that 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:34.239 was met with an eye roll. A visibly angry judge 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:37.360 then cleared the entire courtroom. After a few minutes, the 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:40.560 publican press were allowed back in. Costello then seemed to 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.480 get the message about proper decorum in a court of law. 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.920 Earlier in the day, prosecutors did rest their case in 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.160 New York. On John Tucker Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:51.800 All right, John, thanks well. Now to another high profile 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.840 criminal case in New York, the fraud and market manipulation 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:58.960 trial of Bill Wong. A key prosecution witness says, once 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:02.440 the Arkago's camp management founder decided on a trade, he 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:06.600 did it again and again and again. Senior staffers reacted 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:10.120 by greeting each other with Happy Groundhog Day, a reference 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:13.280 to the classic Bill Murray time loop comedy. Our Kagos 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:16.200 has highly leveraged and concentrated bets on a few companies 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:19.400 resulted in a meltdown in March twenty twenty one, wiping 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:22.680 out more than thirty billion dollars of Wong's fortune and 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.880 costing its counterparty banks ten billion dollars. 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.200 Now to a Bloomberg News exclusive, Karen Sources tell us 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:33.000 that two of the world's biggest chip makers, ASML and TSMC, 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:36.920 can shut their machines down remotely in the event China 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:41.120 invades Taiwan. We get more from Bloomberg's Chan coach in Amsterdam. 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:44.800 Forces have told us that officials from the US government 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:49.600 have privately expressed concerns to both their Dutch in Taiwanese 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:53.880 contraparts about what would happen if China invades the islands. 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:58.040 So this secret capability to remotely kill the machines is 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:01.880 a way to reassure what she took that China can't 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:04.760 use these missions if they taken by force. 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:08.360 In Spumberg's Chun coach in Amsterdam, China has long claimed 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:11.120 the island of Taiwan as its territory. In President Shi 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:14.800 Jinping has advocated for unification and refused to rule out 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:16.000 a military intervention. 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.960 Nathan in the Middle East to the International Criminal Courts 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.120 Chief Prosecutor is seeking arrest warrants for the leaders of 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:27.320 both Israel and Hamas on war crime charges. President Biden 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.560 criticized the ICC, seeing he sees no equivalence between Israel 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:32.840 and Hamas. 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:36.360 Contrary allegations against Israel made by the International Court of Justice. 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:42.520 What's happening is not genocide, to reject that they'll always 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:46.040 stand with Israel and the threats against his security. 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:49.680 The decision to seek charges against the Israeli leaders comes 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.400 despite a US warning that it could jeopardize the chance 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:53.920 for a ceasefire deal. 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:56.760 Well back here in the US, Karen Martin Gruenberg will 0:04:56.839 --> 0:05:00.400 step down as head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corps Proporation, 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:04.320 the FDICE. Bloomberg's Amy Morris has the details from Washington. 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:07.479 Findings of a toxic work environment put the regulator at 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.599 the center of a heated political fight and fueled calls 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:14.200 for his removal. Grooenberg has faced mounting pressure following a 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:18.680 scathing report detailing allegations of harrisman and discrimination, finding a 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:23.280 misogynistic workplace culture at the FDIC and raising questions about 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:27.160 Groomberg's leadership. Grooenberg says he will leave after his successor 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:30.560 is confirmed. He's been with the FDIC since two thousand 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:34.200 and five. In Washington, Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio. All right, Amy, 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:36.880 thanks Welby. Now turn to the markets in the economy. 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.880 As investors await to earning Strom Nvidia tomorrow, they'll yet 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:43.320 plenty of FED speak to digest. Thomas Bark and Christopher Waller, 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.560 John Williams, Raphael Bostik, Susan Collins, and Loretta Mester all 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.839 speak at separate events today, And speaking of Mester, the 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.880 Cleveland FED president tells our Michael McKee she no longer 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:57.680 favors three rate cuts this year. She says policymakers still 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:00.160 need more evidence about the path of inflation before for 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:01.320 adjusting rates. 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.400 It's too soon to tell what path inflations on, so 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:07.159 we just need to collect more information on that. In 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:09.040 the first part of the year, what we saw was 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.760 the risks that we were too restrictive of gone down. 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:14.120 You know, last year people were worried about, oh, the 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.600 FENN maybe getting too restrictive and therefore it's going to 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:19.680 dampen the economy. Those risks went down. At the same time, 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:21.600 the risk to inflation, I think are tilted to the 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:24.560 upside and remain so. And so that's the balancing that 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.039 we have to do. As we said policy going forward. 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:31.280 Cleveland Fed President Lorettemester votes on policy decisions this year. 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:35.520 I speaking of decisions, Karen. Jamie Diamond says succession plans 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:38.880 are well on the way at JP Morgan Chase. Speaking 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:42.240 at an investor day, the CEO told shareholders that senior 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:48.160 individuals at the bank are being prepared for his eventual departure. 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:47.560 On the way. 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:49.520 I mean, we're moving people around. I still think I 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:51.880 should mention if you look at our company, a lot 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:53.720 of these folks have been all over the company now. 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:57.159 They've been in CFO jobs and in the consumer side, 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.680 the investment banking sides. They have eat knowledge of the 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.760 whole company, the whole operating committee, which I think almost 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:05.799 all in the room here. They all know all parts 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.760 of the company. So you've seen succession and got built 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.520 in a succession with Daniel Pinto. How many companies can say. 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:14.640 That Jamie Diamond is sixty eight years old. He adds 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.440 the timeline for his retirement from JP Morgan is not 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:21.320 five years anymore. It's a reference to the long standing 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.239 tradition of diamond saying that his retirement's five years away 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:25.680 no matter when asked. 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:30.640 And it's time now for a look at some of 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:32.880 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:34.920 the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's and 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.559 Michael Barr. Michael, good Morning, Good morning, Karen. 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:41.720 Iran is beginning funeral events today for President Ibraham Rayisi. 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.080 Raightisi was killed in a helicopter crash over the weekend. 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:49.160 Iran will hold presidential elections on June twenty eighth. Following 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:53.800 Ibraham's death, Vice President Mohammed Muckburr will take on the 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.920 role the president in the meantime. Here in the US, 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:01.440 National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby says, even in dealing 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:05.360 with the worst oppressors, the acknowledgment of the deaths is 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:07.200 for the people of Iran, not for the man. 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:13.080 This was a man who had a lot of blood 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:16.720 on his hands, that said, as we in any other case, 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:21.360 we certainly regret in general the loss of life. 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:25.360 Raisi and eight others, including the country's foreign minister, were 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:29.320 killed in northwestern Iran after their helicopter went down in 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:33.240 a mountainous area. New York Mayor Eric Adams formerly is 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:37.400 on to the Turkish community had knowledge to some of 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:38.719 Adam's dealings. 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:39.559 With Turkish officials. 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:43.520 It's according to The New York Times, which reports Rana Abasova, 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:47.199 once an eight to Adams, is cooperating with the corruption 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.520 investigation into the mayor and his twenty twenty one campaign. 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:54.480 The Times reports that, according to three people with knowledge 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.680 of the matter in the case, one of the five 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:01.839 Americans being detained in Turks and Keikos because ammunition was 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:05.600 found in their luggage is talking. Tyler Winrick is speaking 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:07.640 out ahead of his plea hearing later today. 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:10.439 I have a lot of fear and anxiety. 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:10.719 You know. 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.400 The best outcome to this is that the judge will 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:18.199 find leniency and compassion in the situation and steer away 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.959 from that twelve year sentence and be able to give 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.760 a sentence is less than that in a fine. 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:29.360 Hopefully, a bipartisan delegation of US lawmakers travel to Turks 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:33.640 and Kekos to ask for leniency. The Environmental Protection Agency 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.240 has issued an alert warning of cyber attacks against the 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:40.120 nation's water supply. According to the EPA, about seventy percent 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:45.040 of federally inspected utilities violated standards to vend off cyber threats. 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:48.240 Last year, Congressman Buddy Carter of the House Energy and 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:49.000 Commerce Committee. 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:53.599 The water sector frequently operates on legacy technology systems, and 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:58.320 small systems regularly lack the financial resources to hire cybersecurity staff. 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.440 Global News twenty fe four hours a day and whenever 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:04.199 you want it with Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr, and 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:05.800 this is Bloomberg, Karen. 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:12.760 Sorry Michael Barr, thank you, and it's time now for 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:15.439 the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stashauer. 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.040 John, good morning, Good morning, Karen. 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:19.040 There was no reason to think the Yankees were not 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:21.120 going to win their eighth game in a row. More 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:24.560 great starting pitching, this time from Marcus Stroman alex Erdugo 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.080 with three hit three RB Eyes at the stadium. Yanks 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:28.559 took a four to one lead to the ninth, and 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:30.839 he gave the ball the closer, Clay Holmes, who in 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:32.560 twenty appearances had. 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:34.800 Not blown to save, had not allowed a single run. 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:36.160 He gave up four. 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.959 Seattle with four hits off Holmes, who also walked to 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:40.960 the Mariners rally to win five to four. 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:42.720 Yankee managers Aaron. 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:44.920 Boom, you know it's baseball. I thought he threw the ball. 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:48.839 Well again, you know, I mean just didn't really bounce 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:50.360 our way to that ending. You know, he was on 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.880 the attack, you know, a couple swinging bunts on him, 0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:56.199 bloop and then you know, and then they put together 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.959 some good at bats there to finish off. Obviously a 0:10:59.000 --> 0:10:59.839 big rally. 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:01.760 Lost in Cleveland three to one. 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:04.040 Mets started the season oh to five, then went twelve 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:07.439 and three, but in the past month they're nine and eighteen. 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:09.400 Only once have the Mets won as much as two 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:10.040 games in a row. 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:12.559 Red Sox won five nothing a Tampa Bay behind Taylor 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.080 Hawk another home run for Rapid Devers. He's the first 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:18.360 in Socks history to homer and six traight games. Nationals 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.040 beat the Twins twelve to three. Seniley Cup Playoffs down 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:22.719 to the final four. They'll drop the buck on the 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:26.079 East Finals tomorrow at the Garden Rangers and the Florida Panthers. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:29.760 In the West is now SAT Dallas against Edmonton, who 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.199 won Game seven in Vancouver three to two. Six of 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.080 the seven games in the series were decided by one goal. 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:39.439 NBA East Finals begin tonight Indiana at Boston. Katelyn Clark 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.800 and the Indiana Fever now zero to four and the 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:42.960 WNBA bile. 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:44.640 The livery four to oh they beat Seattle. 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.360 Scottie Scheffler was originally supposed to be in the Louisville 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:51.000 courtroom today. He's facing charges from that traffic incident with 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.800 police last Friday before Round two of the PGA Championship. 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.600 His arraignment was postponed until June third. 0:11:56.960 --> 0:12:00.400 Scheffer's facing two misdemeanors but also felony's second degree assault 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:01.640 of a police officer. 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:04.360 John Stashy What Bloomberg Sports Karena Navin. 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:10.480 Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.520 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:18.280 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.240 Nathan Hager. Turning now to our exclusive conversation with the 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:24.920 president of the Cleveland Fed, Loretta Mester. She says inflation 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.960 risks remain tilted to the upside, and she no longer 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:32.000 thinks three rate cuts this year are appropriate. Loretta Mester 0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.599 spoke exclusively with Bloomberg's Michael McKee on the sidelines of 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:38.360 the Atlanta FEDS Financial Markets Conference in Florida. 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:39.800 Let's go to part of that discussion. 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.120 I don't think about it in terms of when right. 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:45.319 It really is dependent on how the economy is faring 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:48.360 and where it's going and is in the progress on 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.679 our dual mandate goal. So what we're going to be 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:53.520 doing is looking at that progress. The first three months 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:56.040 of the year we didn't see progress. The CPI report 0:12:56.240 --> 0:13:01.040 welcome numbers, but still elevated too high, and and in 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:04.640 fact there's monthly reading in April was higher than what 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.079 we saw last year. Now, I wasn't one of the 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:09.520 people who thought that we would continue to see the 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:11.480 great progress who saw in the second half of the 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.079 year continue this year. I always thought we'd see some 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.000 slowing progress, partly because I think we got a lot 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.840 of help from the supply side last year, and as 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:24.280 supply chains have become more normal and as labor markets 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:26.760 have become in better balance, I wouldn't have expected to 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:30.360 see as much progress. Nonetheless, the lack of progress, I 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:34.000 think is something that certainly I didn't find welcome at all, 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:36.160 and so that's why we have to continue to gather 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.280 data and really see it. But as you say, there's 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:41.760 no real risk in doing that at the moment, because 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:45.280 the real side of the economy growth, labor markets earning 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:46.720 good shape well. 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:50.840 As old sort of saw. The recessions don't happen slowly. 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.120 They come on rather immediately, and there are people on 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.320 Wall Street who are worried that if that'll be behind 0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:59.839 the curve on growth. Do you have any concerns that 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.559 there may be something happening that you're not able to 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:04.439 measure correctly. 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.400 Well, you know, we look at data for sure, we 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:09.360 have models for sure, but we do a lot of 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:13.280 speaking to businesses. We gather a lot of information from 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:17.680 contacts all across My district is SUPPORTISI, but every president 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.720 of a federal reserve is doing the same thing, and 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:23.360 so that's very good information because it's more forward looking 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.040 than the data. And a lot of the people that 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:28.520 we talked to in the first quarter of the year 0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:31.880 were actually telling us that, wow, things are stronger than 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:34.400 even we anticipated that they would be. So it wasn't 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:38.160 just the data showing strong it was they were also saying. Nonetheless, 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:40.560 they did say that they're being more cautious, you know, 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:44.160 and more careful. Some projects have been put on hold 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.680 because they want to sort of see how the economy fares, 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.120 and that's kind of the mechanism that monetary policy is having. 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.680 It is starting to moderate demand. It just hasn't moderated 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.240 as fast as some of us might have expected it 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:58.880 to this year. In fact, the last time we put 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:02.320 in forecast, you know, I had up my forecast for 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.160 growth this year to be above trend as opposed to 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.520 below trends. So I think we're all sort of looking 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.760 at the data businesses are doing so we're doing so, 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.160 and we're trying to calibrate to where the economy is 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:13.920 and where it's going. 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:17.160 Well, speaking of forecasts, you get to put in one 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.240 more before your retirement at the correct and of June. 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.080 What's your outlook for inflation the rest. 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:23.280 Of the year. 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:25.520 Well, you know, we're going to gather all the data 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:27.560 that we're going to put together and I'm going to 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.240 put my forecasts in there. I still think, broadly speaking, 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.440 that inflation is going to come down. That's my motal 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:37.280 forecast that we'll see inflation come down. I just don't 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.360 think it's going to come down quickly. And so that's 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:44.320 why it's really going to be this risk management kind 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.480 of proposition, as the FED always has to do, is 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:48.880 sort of managing the risks around both of our dual 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:51.560 mandate goals. If you remember back to the beginning when 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:55.560 we started raising rates, monetary policy was not well positioned 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:57.480 for the high inflation readings we were getting, and so 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:02.240 we had to increase rates quick pace and to a 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:05.360 high level. You know, right now, I think monetary policy 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:08.560 is well positioned for risk on either side, and so 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:10.480 that's kind of what I think what we're gonna be 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:13.360 doing going forward is making sure that we're well calibrated 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:16.400 for whatever risk end up happening. And so we're well 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.480 calibrated now if if there is some deterioration on the 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.560 real sun of the economy that we aren't foreseeing, as 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.080 you said, you know, we're well positioned to address that 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:28.160 by lowering rates. If it turns out that inflation is 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.840 stalling out not my base case, or even going up, 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:33.320 not my base case, we're well positioned to deal with 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.920 that too, either by holding rates at current levels for 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:40.480 longer or if if appropriate, raising the rate. That again, 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:42.440 that's not my base case. My base case is that 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:46.040 inflation is going to start moving back down on a 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.520 slow gradual path back to two percent. But we'll have 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:50.160 to see, and that's what we're going to be doing 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:51.240 is gathering information. 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:53.840 What odds would you put on the idea of inflation 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:56.840 accelerating again forcing you to maybe raise rates. 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.760 Well, I think there are upside risks. My base cases 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.600 at inflation will gradually move back down, But I think 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.600 we have to be open to the fact that, you know, 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:08.320 the economy can surprise you. We've seen that during this 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:12.560 episode of high inflation. Partly, I think because the pandemic 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:15.720 was a significant event and then the reaction to it 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.200 was significant, and the economy may be changing, and so 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.399 we have to be open to the possibility and be 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.159 prepared for it. But again, my motal forecast is that 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.359 we'll see inflation move down. But that's why we're going 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:31.480 to be having to be very careful and monitoring what's 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:32.880 actually happening in the economy. 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.879 This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.479 the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.520 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:46.280 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:47.320 get your podcasts. 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.360 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:53.000 am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:55.840 in New York Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:59.120 Bloomberg one six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:00.600 sixty in San Francisco. 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:04.160 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:09.600 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:13.119 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERRIUSXM, 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.800 the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:18.400 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.359 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:24.680 need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak