804: Week 3 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eighth four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show had some really good plays and some really not good plays. Derek Carr not a good streamer. Mac Jones wasn't very good either, but I did talk up CJ. Stroud and he was a QB one in week two. That was a nice deeper play recommendation at running back, Josh Kelly, Justice Hill, Taj Spears. They didn't do a lot for your teams, but Kyron Williams, Zach Moss, and Jerome Ford did. Now, the Jerome Ford thing isn't really that much of a w because the process wasn't that Nick Chubb would get hurt. So take that one with a grain of salt. Wide receiver was a little bit more iffy. Donovan Peoples, Jones, J. Jones, the Steelers windeouts not eight, but the Texans guys in Robert Woods and Tank Dell they were fine. And then tight end was more fifty to fifty. I had Jake Ferguson and Hunter Henry they were good, but Luke Musgrave and Durham smythe they weren't. Overall, though, I'll take those kind of results when we're talking about players on the waiver wire. I think it's been an above average start to the year with this show. Now, who's ready for Week three? The first year of players are rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. Maybe you could use them in your starting lineups this weekend, maybe you won't. We'll see the top quarterback streamer this week though, in my eyes, is Matthew Stafford. The Rams currently ranked first and plays per game, second in total dropbacks, and tenth in air yards per attempt. In turn, Stafford's thrown for three hundred yards in both games this year. He hasn't been amazingly fantasy relevant because he only has one touchdown, but that's gonna regress. The Rams have the lowest pass to rush touchdown ratio and all of football to start the year, just twenty percent of their touchdowns have come through the air. That's a number that's not going to continue all season long. Both quarterbacks against Cincinnati this year, to Shaun Watson and Lamar jackson They finished as top ten options, so the matchup shouldn't be overly difficult for Stafford. I don't feel as good about him as Stafford, but CJ. Stroud does make some sense this week. I just rattled off some of the numbers for the Rams offense, but the Houston offense, they've had some favorable numbers. Two their fifth and pass rate third in place per game, fourth in total dropbacks, twelfth in air yards per ten. This is clearly due to being in negative gamescripts, but they could easily be in another negative gamescrip this week and against Jacksonville they're big underdogs. The Jags also have a bottom five pressure rate to start the year. That could be a big deal considering the Texans offensive line issues. So I think Stroud makes sense if you're desperate now at running back. It sounds like Isaiah Pacheco is dealing with a hamstring injury at the time of this recording. I don't know if he's going to go this weekend against Chicago. If he doesn't go, then you could look at Jack McKinnon and Clyde Edwards Hilaire. The Bears have been egregiously bad against running backs, so far this year, they've allowed two top eight performances. The Chiefs are monster favorites, so could be a scenario where even if Pacheco goes, someone like Ceh ends up getting more work than anticipated. So keep an eye on that situation now. I talk briefly about the Saints backfield on the fifteen Transactions episode and how we needed more clarity. We got some clarity fortunately before waivers. Kendre Miller is gonna practice and be ready to go this week. It sounds like and I would play him over someone like Tony Jones. I think he's firmly an RB three territory, which can be useful for people, especially the ones who lost Nick Chubb. The Saints get the Packers, and Green Bay's been a totally ordinary opponent for running backs to start the year. According to adjusted Fantasy points allowed, those are schedule adjusted points. Clearly, our samples are small though Miller wasn't that much of a pass catcher coming out, but he's a super young and ableback who's capable of carrying a big workload. I wouldn't be shocked if he has a decent Week three, and then after that game we're talking about him maybe even seeing more work even when Jamal Williams is back. Obviously, when Alvin Kamara's suspension is over, He's going to be the top back there, but Miller makes plenty of sense here. In week three, we might see more Tank Bigsby this week. Travis Etan has dominated that backfield with a seventy seven percent running back rush air to start the year. But Jacksonville's a big favorite this week against Houston, and the Texans are very beatable on the ground. They rank seventh thus far, and adjust appoints a lot of running backs. If that positive game script hits, which is very possible, don't be surprised if Bigsby gets more involved in this offense. We just didn't get to see that against the Chiefs in week two. Now, in that same game as Devin Singletary, I think you have to be pretty desperate to use Singletary this week, but he does lead the Texans in two minute snaps and he's coming off a game where he led that backfield and route participation. If that type of usage continues, and if this gamescript does indeed favor Jacksonville, it could be a game where he's on the field more than Damian Pierce. Managers would like I see him Moore as an RB four though this week, someone who I think is a much better play than Singletary is Roshan Johnson. In Week two, Chicago decided to make Deontay Foreman inactive. That led to Rochean only carrying the ball four times, but that was four times out of eleven running back carries. The greater point is that he tied Khalil Herbert in routes run and so far on the season, they've been using Roshan Johnson as their receiving back, the guy who's on the field when they're trailing. And if that's the case, that means he might find the field a good bit this weekend because Chicago gets Kansas City and they're big underdogs, so you might be able to get some cheap late production from Roshan Johnson this week. Now, moving on to wide receiver, someone that I'm really mad at myself for not mentioning last weeks Josh Reynolds, but I'll mention him this week. He's been Detroit's number two wide out and he currently has a twenty percent target share on the year. Now he gets it Atlanta, which isn't a super tough opponent on paper. That game also has a reasonable forty six and a half point over under according to Fandles Sportsbook, and the Lions had the eleventh best implied team total on the slate. There's a chance that without David Montgomery, Detroit is a more pass heavy team, so Reynolds makes for a decent play. Now it's gonna feel like I'm just chasing production with some of the wide receiver picks this week, but these players are just under rostered compared to how well they've played, and that goes for someone like two to two at Well. At Well now ranks in the top thirty and yards per route run on the season, he's seen a nineteen percent target chair and that's within an offense like I said earlier, that's been running a lot of plays AND's been pass heavy. So with seventeen targets in two games, he's a pretty obvious waiver wire type option this week. Tank Dell's another one we're going with the small wide receivers this week. I already talked about Houston being a team that could be pass friendly once again this weekend, and that's big for a guy who saw a twenty three percent target chair last week, and it was in his debut with a bigger role in that offense. They're lining him up all over the field too. This isn't just a tank Dell's a slot guy kind of situation. He should be solid this week against Jacksonville, especially if that negative game script hits. People were asking me why Jayden Reid wasn't featured on this week's fifteen Transactions episode, and it's because I already talked about him before week one and basically all summer long. I'm trying to get you guys more information, so I didn't feel the need to reinforce things with Jayden Reed. You know how I feel about Jaden Reid. But Reed now has a twenty five percent target chair in the Packers offense after a thirty two percent target share game in week two. We're not going to see him score twice a week, but that usage is enough for him to be on your radar, especially if Christian Watson still doesn't end up going this weekend. If Watson does go, it makes Read a less attractive option because we haven't seen this offense with Christian Watson this year. Reed has played sixty six percent of his snash from the slot to start the year. That's the role we all projected him to play at the beginning of the season. New Orleans his opponent this week. They've been totally average against the slot to start the year. I don't think Reed is some smash play, but because he's still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of leagues, I've got to call him out. Adam theln's the last wide out in this group. He only had a six and a half percent target chair in Week one, but that shut up to twenty nine percent in Week two. He's played the vast majority of his snaps from the slot at seventy six percent. In Seattle, the team Carolina gets this weekend ranks in the top half of the league and percentage of targets allowed to the slot this year, the Panthers could hit a negative game script and be forced to throw a little bit in this contest. That makes thelan an okay enough play. Not overly thrilled about it, but I think he's fine at tight end. I still think Jake Ferguson works, even though his route participation dropped by about ten percentage points from Week one to Week two. He still has an eighteen percent target chair in the season and forty six percent in Dallas's red zone. Targets have gone Jake Ferguson's way. That's a top twelve number in the league according to Fantasy Life. I'd still roll with him if you need some tight end help, and you could also go to Zach Ertz. He leads all tight ends this season with a thirty and a half percent target share, And even though the matchup is not ideal against Dallas, and even though Ertz hasn't done a whole lot with those targets, he's at least providing you a nice floor at a volatile position. And I hate to say it, but with all the injuries at running back in New Orleans, you could also look at Taysom Hill. He's rostered in thirteen percent of Yahoo leagues. Hill ran the ball nine times for seventy five yards in Week two, but he didn't find the end zone. So without receptions like we won at tight end the fantasy day wasn't amazing. But if you're in a standard format, especially, I do think he makes some sense. Kendre Miller's gonna see work, i'd imagine, but Hill could have a similar role as last week, where he saw two of seven carries within Carolina's ten yard line. This next group consists of players rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. So we're digging a little bit deeper, actually a lot deeper. I don't have a quarterback in this tier this week, but I have two running backs. One of them is Rico Dowdell. So far the season, Daddle's second on the Cowboys with thirteen running back rushes. Duce Vaughan has nine. Dawdlell's also played six more snaps. Wouldn't surprise anyone if Dallas has a big win over Arizona this week the way that defense is playing, since that's very very possible. We might end up seeing more Dowbdell in this game as the game unfolds late in the game and he could rack up some garbage time points as is always the case, and this tier of players, game script is gonna dictate the running back moves. Craig Reynolds is the other running back who should be on your radar. I think he makes a lot more sense than Dowdell. Reynolds has been sprinkled into this offense before, it's not sounding good for David Montgomery this week. Jamiir gives meanwhile, is not a bell cow back. That's not his game, that's not his role. So while someone like Bam Knight could step in and see more work with David Montgomery sidelined, Craig Reynolds, who's been dressed for Detroit this year, is probably the top early down back that offense. When you're removing Gibbs from the equation and what could be an okay game environment, I do think that Reynolds makes sense as a deep option now. I missed on Donovan Peoples Jones last week, but I'm gonna go back to him in Week three. Cleveland gets Tennessee. The Titans have surrendered a top ten pass rate both in neutral script environments and non neutral script environments. They're first in air ards per attempt allowed and their bottom ten team and passing EPA allowed. Now they face Derek Carr and Justin Herbert, but it's a defense that's better upfront. Teams are gonna throw in the Titans. That makes me interested in DPJ. He's now run the most routes for the Browns this year. I'd still play Elijah Moore over him, but Moore's rostered in too many leagues to call out on today's show. I also think that kJ Osborne makes sense this week. He's been playing ahead of Jordan Addison so far this year, having run nineteen more routes. He hasn't been nearly as effective, but as a sleeper that's still noteworthy. The Vikings get the Chargers this week and could end up being a shootout. It's got by far the highest game total on the slate, and as I mentioned on the ten Trends episode, the Chargers have been brutal against wide receivers to start the year. I obviously like Jordan Addison more even with fewer routes run, but Osborne works as a deeper play and then at tight end I got one of them in this tier. I'm gonna go back to my guy, Durham smythe The Dolphins get the Broncos this weekend, and they have a healthy implied team total of twenty seven and a half points. Jalen waddles if he right now at the time of this recording, but even if he goes Smith could produce. Not only has Denver been the seventh most advantageous matchup for tight ends and adjusted points allowed. So far this year, their defense has been brutal, but Smyth still leads the NFL and tight end route participation that's resulted in a fourteen percent target chair. He's certainly not an easy player to slot into your lineup, but the signs point to him being an okay play. Finally, with streaming defenses this week, Jacksonville is still under that fifty percent mark despite being big favorites against a team that's allowed multiple top ten performances this year, so they're definitely in play, as is Seattle against Bryce Young and the Panthers. Caroline has been a bottom ten team in pressure rate allowed and they're on the road in that one, so those are the two obvious units to call out here in Week three. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. We've got the Mailbag episode and a new Late Round Perspectives episode dropping tomorrow i'll talk to you then