542: Week 1 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jake zacher reson. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and forty two of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Hey, thanks for tuning in. Over the last handful of years. On this show, I've done a matchup show. I'd arbitrarily pick players I was higher and lower on versus the consensus, and I'd let you know why I was higher or lower on that player. I don't think that episode was bad or anything, but I feel like there's a way to give you guys a little bit more utility with an episode like that each week. So this year, I'm trying out a sleeper show. So what's this sleeper show going to be all about? Well, first off, it's gonna be more structured. My plan is to look at Yahoo percent rostered numbers and find players in different percent rostered buckets who you could play in a given week. I'll break those players into three distinct buckets. Players that are rostered in twenty one to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, players rostered in ten to twenty percent, and players rostered in under ten percent of leagues. From there, I'll give you guys five recommendations in those first two buckets, and then three in the last one. So five players rostered in twenty one to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues that I like on the week five and ten to twenty percent, and then three and under ten percent at the end of the show. Then I'm going to provide players who are rostered in more than seventy five percent of leagues who I would consider benching. My hope with this type of structure is that it's going to be easier to actually apply the things that you hear about on this show. You may hear a player who's still on your waiver wire who you may be able to play in a pinch. Maybe this is going to be worse than what I've done in the past, but I'm hoping you all will now get more out of this episode each and every week. Now, before looking at the first bucket of sleepers, I want to let you know that Fandal is giving new users an exclusive opportunity to bet on Week one games. All you have to do is sign up, make a ten dollars more deposit, and you'll be able to bet on any Week one NFL team at forty to one odds. Yes, that's forty to one odds. Just sit back, watch and win. Head over to FanDuel's sportsbook today and make your first deposit. Must be twenty one years or older in president of Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, India, and Michigan, New Jersey, Pensylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. New Years is only max bonus two hundred dollars in sich credit. See full terms at sportsbook dot fandel dot com. Gambling problem called one hundred five to two forty seven hundred in Colorado. One one hundred bets off in Iowa. One hundred nine with it in Indiana one one hundred two seven zero seven one seven for confidential heled Michigan. One hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia, Tennessee redline one hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit one hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Let's kick off the first bucket of sleepers or players rostered in twenty one to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues by talking about my guy Elijah Moore. As of right now, there's still no big update on Jamison Crowder's AVAILABIL for this weekend's game, and if he's out, it's going to be much easier to play Elijah Moore because he'd take on slot duties. But I think Moore should still play a decent number of snaps given his biggest competition to see the field if Crowder does play, would be Keeling Cole. The Jets used more all over the formation this offseason, and as I've noted multiple times in this podcast, Moore was tied with a third best percentile ranking in my prospect model among all wide receivers in this really good twenty twenty one class. The matchup against Carolina isn't all that bad either. Their Pro Football Focus is twenty third ranked secondary entering the year, and the Jets could be forced to pass a little bit more than they'd like because they're five and a half point underdogs. He's only going to be a deep play if Crowder does go. If Crowder doesn't go, I'd feel fine with Moore as my wide receiver three. The second player in this bucket that I want to talk about is no surprise, it's Tyson Williams. The Ravens added Le'Veon Bell this week, but he's not a threat here in Week one. I don't really think he's a threat season long either. As I noted on yesterday's ten Trend show, the Ravens have split their backfield up a lot over the last two years, more than any other team in the league. No running back on the Ravens has at a single game during the stretch with a snapshare above seventy percent. Tyson Williams should get some run, and it's against the Raiders. The Ravens are four and a half point favorites in this game according to Fandals Sportsbooks. That's a positive game script that could hit for Tyson, and if it does, expect Williams to see the field a decent bit. Gus Edwards is obviously the guy that you want in his backfield, but if the right script hits, Williams can end up being usable as a flex play. You could also go with James White in a PPR format, as I noted on yesterday's show, even though his volume numbers weren't spectacular last year. His pro rated target shair was right in line with his career averages. He still was near a seventeen percent target share had he played sixteen games. Now the Patriots have Mac Jones under center, and there's a chance he ends up being more prone to dumping the off to the Patriots running backs. White is just under rostered in general right now. He should give you some production no matter the opponent each week. The fourth player I want to mention another fifteen Transactions player, Emmanuel Sanders. There's a reason that some of these players that I'm talking about today were in the fifteen Transactions episode. They're not rostered in enough leagues. Sanders is rostered in only twenty three percent of Yahoo leagues. And this is despite the fact that he has the potential and honestly, I'd say he's the favorite to be the second best pass catcher on the Bills this year. Stefan Diggs was out in their last preseason game, but even still, Sanders was the target leader by a relatively decent margin in that game. Now he gets a Steelers defense that's good, yes, but it's likely going to be easier to beat the Steelers through the air than on the ground. When the Bills face the Steelers. Last year, they threw the ball in about seventy two percent of their plays when they were in a neutral game script. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Sanders comes through with a decent outing, and I also wouldn't be shocked if he's one of the better waivers as heading into Week two. Finally, I'm gonna go with a tight end in this bucket. I'm gonna go with Zach Ertz the Eagles Falcons game this weekend. We could see a shootout in that game. There's a forty eight and a half point over under, it's being played indoors, and Atlanta has the last ranked secondary in the league. According to PFF, Ertz isn't the most ferocious tight end in the league, but I think that people forget that he still saw a decent target share last year. He still saw a decent amount of looks. He saw at least a sixteen percent target share in all but one game played, and he averaged an eighteen point six percent target share per game last year. If he comes close to that, he'll be a worthwhile tight end stream against a beatable defense. Let's move on to players in the ten to twenty percent bucket. The reason this percentage range isn't as big as the last one is because there are just more players in general who fall inside it. But let's start with AJ Green. You could actually apply this recommendation to Rondel Moore as well, but Rondell Moore is rostered in twenty five percent of leagues. But you can apply it to more two because the Arizona passing attack is in a good spot against Tennessee this weekend. Tennessee is a bottom half secondary entering the season and the Cardinals are struggling there as well. The lack of defense in this game could really create a shootout, and that's why this game has a fifty two and a half point over under over on fandals Sportsbook. And AJ Green should see a good number of snaps after it's been reported that he's had a really good camp. His real competition is Christian Kirk, and Christian Kirk, as we know, just continues to disappoint and Ron del Moore has a shot to see slot duties right away too. He played ninety one percent of his snaps from the slot in the preseason. Overall, both players are just cheap ways to get in on this game because this game could be very, very high scoring. Another wide receiver that I like in this percent rostered range is Paris Campbell. T Y Hilton is out that could end up funneling more targets Paris Campbell's way, and it's in a game with a fifty point over under that's being played indoors, and they're facing a Seattle defense that has suspect corners. The matchup may not be as good in the slot, which is where Paris Campbell's probably gonna play, but Campbell should see five to six, maybe even seven targets in this game, and that makes him a waiver wire ad with flex appeal. Now I'll just lump two players together with this next recommendation because they're on the same team. They're a stack Sam Darnold and Terris Marshall Junior. The Jets secondary ranks fifth worst according to PFF entering the season, and as I've been saying over the last forever on this show, Terris Marshall looks like the slot option in this Carolina Panthers offense, and that offense has over a twenty five point implied team total this week. That total is better than teams like Arizona and Cleveland. It's the right matchup to exploit. And if you're a believer in Marshall like I am, then you may feel okay about him slotting into a flex spot in deeper leagues. I can't imagine that you have to play Sam Donald right after your draft, but maybe you're in a super flex league, or maybe you just really screwed up the quarterback position on draft day. Sometimes that happened, but regardless, I think that Darnold makes for a very good streaming option. And then lastly in this tier is someone else that I mentioned on the fifteen Transaction Show, and that's Boston Scott. Earlier this week I talked about the evidence that we have with this coaching staff and how they may split up this backfield. And then on top of that, Miles Sanders has struggled as a pass catcher. Now this week you get an environment against Atlanta and what could be, like I said earlier, a pretty high scoring game, and if the script goes south for Philly, Scott could be on the field more or at least more than we think. I also like the fact that his biggest competition for that number two role in Philly is Kenneth Gainwell, And I love Gainwell the prospect, but he's still a rookie, so it may take some time for him to develop and take over Scott on that depth chart. So to me, Boston Scott's actually kind of viable if you went zero RB and you play in a PPR league. Let's talk about some deep sleepers now, players rostered in under ten percent of leagues, who you may be able to play this week. I'm gonna stick with that Falcons Eagles game, and I'm gonna stick with the Eagle side and talk about Quez Watkins. None of the Falcons corners have been average over the last two seasons according to PFF grades, and it looks like Watkins is gonna be one of the Eagles starters, at least in the slot. In the preseason, he played sixty five percent of his snaps from that area of the field. Jalen Rager was at twenty one percent. And then the other thing to like about Watkins is his big playability. He ran a four three five forty and we've seen that speed on display in the preseason. He had that one play that he took to the house against Pittsburgh and he just ran by the entire defense. So I like Watkins as a deep play this week. And another young wide receiver that you might be able to target this week if you're super desperate is Diami Brown. Curtis Samuel status is currently unclear, and he left Wednesday's practice early with a groin injury. That's what Ian Rappaport reported at the time of this recording. If Samuel can't go, Diamy Brown will get more run in that offense. And guys, I gotta tell you, I think Diami Brown is a very good player. I said what apparently was a controversial tweet earlier this offseason where I said I wouldn't be shocked if Brown just ends up being a better player than Curtis Samuel, and I believe that's true. Diami Brown was just one of eleven wide receivers that were drafted this year with a best season yards per team attempt rate in college above three, and he had a strong collegiate breakout age two. He's in eighty first percentile prospect in my model, So if he sees the field, if Samuel's not one hundred percent, then he's got a good chance to post some numbers. The final deep sleeper that I've got for you is Jimmy Garoppolo. He's clearly not rostered in a ton of leagues because people care a lot more about Trey Lance, understandably so. But Jimmy G's team this week has an implied team total above twenty six points and they're facing a bottom five secondary in Detroit. These are the situations where people often fade quarterbacks because they just expect the team to run the ball a lot in a positive game script. But in order to get to that positive game same script, the team needs to score points. If San Francisco does indeed post like twenty six, twenty seven to twenty eight points, Jimmy Garoppolo will probably have something to do with it. He's not necessarily a high ceiling option, but he can get you fifteen, sixteen, seventeen fantasy points. The matchup is there, and the personnel around him is very good. So, like I said earlier, at the end of these shows, I'm gonna give you guys a handful of players who are rostered in seventy five percent or more league, So I'd consider benching. Saquon Barkley is a big, big name I understand the idea of always starting your studs. You don't want to bench a player like Barkley and then watch them go off on your bench. But we've got two things going against him this week. The first is that the Broncos defense is very, very good. It's one of the best on paper in the league. It could create just an ugly game. In general, the Giants Broncos game has a forty one and a half point over under. But we also don't know Saquon Barkley's exact workload. There's plenty of question marks around that. So if you want to play it safe, I wouldn't fault you for going with someone like Chase Edmonds over Saquon Barkley this week or Raheem Mostered. Those are two guys in good matchups who are guaranteed volume and will likely finish with just as much volume as Saquon Barkley unless they just decide to unleash Barkley right away. It doesn't mean that Barkley was a bad pick. We knew all this going into the season. It's just not a good spot for him for multiple reasons. And this idea can expand into Kenny Galladay too. Galladay hasn't gotten many reps with Daniel Jones. He's now facing arguably the best secondary in the league here in Week one. I said it on the fifteen Transaction Show. I'll say it again, Galladay is a cell through the first two weeks of the season. Process wise, of course, we know Jamar Chase struggled in the preseason and I'm struggling to put him in my lineups here in Week one. Now. Granted, I drafted him mostly as a wide receiver for on wide receiver heavy teams this year, so I have good alternatives, but he's not a slam dunk play despite an average matchup. We again just don't know what the usage is gonna look like, Whereas we have a better idea for other players who are also good in his range, like, for example, I would absolutely play Laviska Channault over Jamar Chase this week, but that's not being reflected in expert ranks right now. So this one overall is not very mathematical. It's just working with what we know, which is not a lot. It's hard to trust Jamar Chase right now. And then if you have one of the Buffalo Bills running backs, I would try to not start them. I already talked about how Buffalo intelligently went with a pass heavy approach against Pittsburgh last year, and I'd expect the same this year. But we also have a scenario where we know Pittsburgh's front is very good. Add in the fact that we don't know how this backfield is going to really be split between Devin Singletary and Zach Moss, and Josh Allen also is stealing a lot of goal line looks. I just think that overall, the Buffalo Bills running backs are going to be very hard to trust early in the season. I would absolutely play someone like Tyson Williams over those two running backs this week, and then just hope that Tyson Williams can be on the field during garbage time in a way better matchup. I'll try to close out each show with a couple of streaming defenses, because I know that's been helpful in the past. My two this week are Green Bay and Carolina, the two I talked about on the fifteen Transaction show. Both defenses not only could be strong this week, but they've got good matchups upcoming as well, so you can hypothetically hold on to them If you want to know a little bit more as to why I'm playing those teams, you can go ahead and listen back to that show. But they're both favorites, They're both going to have that positive game script defensively, and they both have attractive quarterback matchups. That's why they're targets. Anyway, Hopefully you guys really like this new format of the show. If you have any feedback, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and talk to me about it. I would love to hear that feedback, but that's going to do for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. We got one more show this week, the Mailbag episode, that's going to drop tomorrow. I'll talk to you then, faster, ter,