713: 15 Transactions for Week 12

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachera J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode seven hundred and thirteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. The twenty twenty two NBA season is in full swing and Fandol and Dojorno are teaming up to give fans the opportunity to go to an NBA game of their choice this season. To enter the sweeps, all you have to do is go to FanDuel dot com slash Dogorna and be on the lookout for Dejorno's next free to play NBA DFS contest, Friday Night Hoops. Dogorno's Friday Night Hoops NBA DFS contest is set to begin Friday night, November twenty fifth. In the meantime, head to fandle dot com slash Giorno to enter for a chance to win a trip to the NBA game of your choice. That's fandel dot com slash do Giorno. No purchase necessary, agent location restrictions apply. Void were prohibited c full terms at fandle dot com. Sell Jamal Williams, so most people understand that Jamal Williams won't score three touchdowns every single week. That's what he did in Week eleven, but a lot of people are still intrigued by the guy who's leading the NFL and rushing touchdowns. Williams is now ranked as an RB to a top twenty four running back in four consecutive games in PPR formats, he's averaging seventeen point three points per game during that stretch, and while he's averaging sixty four yards per game on the ground, nothing wrong with that. The main reason he's been so relevant is touchdowns. Period. He has six rushing touchdowns over his last four He's accounted for almost fifty five percent of Detroit's offensive touchdowns during this stretch. Since twenty eleven, only two running backs have finished a season with more than fifty percent of their team's offensive touchdowns. Neither of those running backs were able to get to that fifty five percent mark. That's just me showing you that regression is almost inevitable. And both of those players it was Maurice Jones Drew in twenty eleven and Christian McCaffrey in twenty nineteen. Both of them were pass catchers. They had multiple ways of finding the end zone. That's not the case for Jamal Williams. Williams has not seen a single target in three consecutive games, and they were also full time players MJD and CMC were. Williams has played more than half of Detroit's snaps just once this year. Basically, Williams is lacking some of the key things that we're looking for in fantasy running backs. He's seeing goal line work. That's great. The Lions clearly are not afraid to give him the rock close to the goal line. That's not going to go away, and Detroit doesn't have a bad schedule moving forward. It's just that what he's currently doing is not sustainable. We want guys who are catching passes out of the backfield. We want guys who are on the field a lot. We want high snap shares. There's a correlation between those things and scoring fantasy points. Now, to see how the market was viewing Jamal Williams, I posted a Twitter poll. I know this is very very scientific, but I wanted to ask people who they would prefer in half PPR leagues moving forward, Jamal Williams or Jeff Wilson, and about fifty five percent of people prefer Jamal Williams. But I'm on the Wilson side. It's not by a ton, but I do like Jeff Wilson more than Jamal Williams. He's someone playing a higher percentage of his team snaps. His offense is better, his schedule, it's relatively comparable. Most importantly, he's not just seeing rushing work, but Wilson's seeing receiving work too. We could sit here and say that DeAndre Swift isn't seeing that big of a workload in that offense. He's not seeing the field that much. Well, DeAndre Swift snapshare in week eleven was greater than Raheem moster it's in week ten. Like I said, Williams isn't gonna go away. I'm just looking at some of the responses to that poll tweets saying things like I'll take the guy leading the NFL in touchdowns, or I'll take the guy who's seeing five goal line looks game, which isn't even true. People want their touchdowns, and understandably so, Jamal Williams is a pleasant surprise this season. He's been great, But don't let recency bias overshadow what's to come from a process standpoint. This is a classic case of selling high. Of course anything can happen. Of course he can just score a touchdown every single week through the rest of the season. You have to be open to that. That's what variance is. But logic and math tell us that Jamal Williams is a sell add to Marcus Robinson. So Rashad Bateman aggravated his foot injury back in Week eight against the Buccaneers, and as we know, he's done for the year. He hasn't played since counting that game against Tampa Bay. Baltimore's played three games without Rashad Bateman, and in those games, DeMarcus Robinson has seen target chairs of twenty three and a half percent, nineteen percent and twenty eight point one percent. He's seen amazing target chairs without Rashad Bateman. Now, Devin Duverney is running as the team's top receiver, but Robinson is the one who's getting it done. He's coming off a nine catch, one and twenty eight yard day. He's looking like Lamar Jackson's preferred option at wide receiver. That makes him roster worthy by Alan Lazard. So oftentimes when I buy and sell players, I like to play into narratives. I like to do the opposite of what people are probably thinking, And what people are probably thinking right now is Christian Watson. Is that dude, which, yeah, I talked about this last week. I've talked about Christian Watson over the last month on this show. I like Christian Watson in this offense this season. I think he has at least a chance to be a league winner down the stretch. But what this does when everyone's so focused on a guy like Watson, it pushes Alan Lazard to the background. But Lazard is still seeing more consistent work in that Green Bay offense. He's actually had at least a twenty percent target share in every single game since Week three, and he's coming off a game in Week eleven whereas target share was almost thirty percent. Christian Watson in that game had a sixteen percent target share. So everyone is understandably excited about Watson. I am too, But that might open up an opportunity to swoop in and get Alan Lazard at Darius Slayton. So I probably should have talked about Darius Slayton on last week's fifteen Transaction show, but instead I featured him on the sleeper show, but now you definitely have to add him. Wandell Robinson unfortunately suffered a torn acl against the Lions on Sunday. He's going to be sidelined the rest of the year. But regardless of that injury and what it could do to Slayton's overall volume, the target share was already there. Slayton's average a target share per game of over twenty one percent over his last six He's now scored at least eleven point six PPR points and four consecutive games. I'm not really worried about the Giants schedule moving forward either. It's pretty average. Slayton's currently available in about half of Yahoo leagues. He should be add this week. Hold Naji Harris. So we finally got a big game from Naji Harris and all it took was an injury to Jalen Warren. Kind of well, let's not take anything away from Harris. Yes, Jalen Warren left Pittsburgh's game agains Cincinnati early, but Harris still finished the day with a forty five percent success rate. That's pretty good. He had twenty carries for ninety yards, and he saw every single Pittsburgh running back rush for the first time this season, en route to almost twenty eight PPR points. It was a great day for Najie Harris, and he looked pretty good too. Now, obviously you might be sitting back and saying, Okay, finally I can sell Naji Harris high. I'm just not sure the market is buying Naji Harris even after this performance. And the thing is, the Steelers actually have a pretty nice schedule moving forward for Harris. They have the eighth best one by justin fantasy points allowed to running backs from week twelve through seventeen, and then in weeks fifteen to seventeen, it's the second best, say the second best running back schedule in fantasy playoffs. In weeks fifteen and sixteen they get the Panthers and the Raiders. So there's a chance that we see some decent performances from Najie Harris down the stretch. I don't think this is really the time to sell high unless you absolutely can sell high. Add James Cook. So back in Week two against the Titans, James Cook had a season high fifty five percent running back rush here. But if you remember that game, it got out of hand. The Bills crushed the Titans. So in that blowout, they gave James Cook a little bit more run in Week eleven, So this past week, Cook saw his second highest running back rush share of the season. But this game was a little bit different. It was a whole lot closer. Cook was seeing work in the second and third quarter. The game hadn't been won yet, and he had eleven carries for eighty six yards, and he had a couple of targets through the air. Now, Devin Singletary is their dude in the backfield. He's the guy you obviously won. But Cook could have some flex appeal moving forward. And at the very least, he's a Singletary handcuff by Antonio Gibson. So for anyone wanting to make a more volatile move, I think buying Antonio Gibson might be for you. Since Brian Robinson returned to the football field, he's out attempted Antonio Gibson in every single game, six straight games of more Robinson on the ground than Antonio Gibson. But in Week eleven that changed. Not only did Gibson see more work on the ground than Robinson, he had a season high sixty seven percent snapshare and guys that wasn't a really positive game script historically, or at least over the last month and a half, that would have favored Brian Robinson a lot more. JD. McKissick is now out for the year. The Commanders have a two headed backfield. It's Gibson and Robinson. Gibson is more of the pass catcher. Robinson has been more of the grinder. Gibson's actually seen a double digit percentage target shair in each of his last seven games. It's pretty amazing. But if Gibson's now seeing more work on the ground, that's a really good running back workload. But this is a risky transaction because the Commanders could easily just go back to Robinson. This is just a one game trend. But at the very least we know that Gibson's seeing the pass catching work. In PPR formats, he's been absolutely fine. And the thing is he's coming off a game in a really really good matchup against Houston where his performance wasn't that incredible. It's not like he found the end zone a couple of times. That's why I think you still might be able to buy him right now. Sell Curtis Samuel So in that same offense we have Curtis Samuel. He's been pretty mediocre in Fantasy over the last month. Taylor Heineke took over that offense in Week seven. Since that point in time, Samuel's averaged a target share per game of fifteen point seven percent. With Carson Wentz that number was over twenty two percent, and his fantasy numbers have obviously taken a hit. He scored eleven point three PPR points per game with Taylor Heineke, and that's while scoring two touch shouns across his five games. And he's coming off a performance where he scored another touchdown, So there might be an opportunity to sell high with Curtis Samuel. Maybe the fact of the matter is this is Terry mclaurin's offense once again, as it should be at Samaj p Ryan, So sometimes these transactions are really easy. Joe Mixon was ruled out of their Week eleven game against the Steelers because he had a concussion. Samaj p Ryan stepped in. He handled eleven of thirteen non Mixon running back rushes, but most importantly, he played the pass catching role as he does in that offense. He got three of his four targets for three touchdowns. He had a monster day. So if Mixon misses time, p RN's the guy that you would want by Ramandre Stevenson. So some fantasy managers might look at the box score from Sunday and see that Damien Harris outrushed for Andre Stevenson sixty five to twenty six, And really, Harris did look better on the ground than Stevenson. He had a fifty percent success rate, Stevenson was at thirteen percent. Stevenson's peripheral numbers, though they were still great. He played seventy nine percent of New England snaps against the Jets. That was the third highest mark of his season. He ran the second most routes for the Patriots overall, and he continues to be a massive piece of their passing game. Ramandre Stevenson has hit a twenty two percent target chair in four consecutive games. Damien Harris is gonna limit Ramandre Stevenson's ceiling a little bit, but with a pretty reasonable rest of the season schedule, I think Stevenson's going to be just fine. In fact, I think he's going to be more than fine. That's why you can buy him. Add kyn Williams. A lot of attentions probably going to be given to cam Akers on the waiver wire this week. He had fourteen carries in their game against New Orleans. But I'm kind of intrigued by Kyron Williams. We know the Rams are not a good football team. That could lead to a lot of negative gamescripts. In Week eleven, Kyron Williams ran twenty routes. He was the team's primary pass catching option. He also ended up playing ten more snaps than cam Akers did. Darryl Henderson only had six and a half percent of the team snaps. Now, I wouldn't want to really rely on any Rams running back moving forward, but Williams is probably the easiest to snag off the waiver wire this week because more attention is going to be put on cam Akers. I think Williams is going to be cheaper, and I'm not sure there's that much of a difference between those two players and PPR formats by AJ Brown. So it's been back to back kind of mediocre performances from AJ Brown. I don't think it's time to panic though. Brown only had nine PPR points on Sunday and he was out targeted by DeVante Smith, but he still finished with a thirty percent target share. The Eagles played their first game without Dallas Goddard and we saw DeVante Smith and AJ Brown capture almost seventy percent of the team's targets. So basically, the target ceiling, it's gonna be there for AJ Brown week in and week out, so the production will inevitably follow. Add Latavius Murray. So, in someone of a surprise move, the Broncos waived Melvin Gordon on Monday. He's had issues with fumbling the season, but it still wasn't necessarily expected. And that's especially true because on Monday it was announced that Chase Edmonds has a high ankle sprain. He hurt his ankle on Sunday. In other words, it's Latavious Murray's time. Murray had his best bagfield hare numbers of the season in Week eleven. He had sixty three percent of the team's running back rushes in a fourteen point three percent target share. I think we should expect those kinds of numbers moving forward, which are good numbers, but someone's got to back him up. Right in the short term, that's likely going to be Marlon mack so in deeper leagues, you could look maxway, but then it gets even more complicated. Mike Boone is eligible to return from ir in week thirteen, and he's someone who could make some noise if he's healthy enough down the stretch. And I highly doubt your league mates are going to be really into Mike Boone this week off the wires, so you can get him for pretty cheap. But Latavius Murray he's the priority. Add if you want to take a shot on Marlon Mack, that makes plenty of sense too, as does Mike Boone, who probably has a little bit more upside than Mac given the talent profile. It's just that the injury could make him not as attractive. But Latavious Murray he's your guy this week. Add Jamison Williams. So Jamison Williams is reportedly returning from the pup. That means he's back on our fantasy football radars. Just see you guys know if you weren't around for prospect season, he was a ninety fifth percentile prospect in my model. He ranked just behind Drake London, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Trey Lon Berks in that order. Entering the season or I guess exiting the draft. He's someone who can stretch the field and make splash plays. And if he's healthy, if he's playing, he needs to be on fantasy rosters because the Lions really don't have a secure second option in their passing attack right now. Williams could hypothetically play that role. And yes I'm using the term hypothetically. We don't I don't know how healthy he really is. We don't know exactly when he's gonna return, at least at the time of this recording. You just can't wait and see, though, so you should be adding him this week. Add the Miami Dolphins defense. With the Dolphins having a buy in Week eleven, they're now available in a lot of leagues, and they get the Texans in Week twelve. According to Fandels Sportsbook, Miami's an eleven and a half point home favorite, Houston has just a seventeen point imply team total, and the Texas are the third most advantageous matchup for team defenses in fantasy football when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. And get this, they've allowed a top seven defensive performance in each of their last five games, So Miami a great play this week. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. You know, for it to follow me on Twitter at Late Round qb'ro go to check out Lateround dot com. You can join the Patreon for weekly rankings, rest of Seas and rankings live Q and as and more. But you can also subscribe to the free newsletter. That's where my written content is going these days, including the fifteen transactions column, so check it all out Lateround dot com. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow