242 - Learning from Earthquake Engineering with Negar Elhami-Khorasani and Justin Moresco

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<v Justin Moresco>Hello everybody.

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<v Justin Moresco>Welcome to the Fire Science Show.

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<v Justin Moresco>I always find it an amazing opportunity when we can learn something useful from experiences of other fields of engineering.

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<v Justin Moresco>It's not that we have to discover or come up with, uh, everything on our own, actually given the limited resources we have, that would be actually quite stupid if we tried to do that.

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<v Justin Moresco>And uh, there have been others who have been dealing with natural disasters and other things that threaten people in somewhat similar ways as fires in the past.

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<v Justin Moresco>We can take their knowledge, we can apply their knowledge to our problems.

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<v Justin Moresco>We can build on it and we can grow.

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<v Justin Moresco>And one of such fields is earthquake engineering.

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<v Justin Moresco>We have not talked about earthquake engineering, yet in the podcast, uh, fires are a big part of earthquake engineering because, uh, post earthquake fires are quite a thing and they're quite scary.

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<v Justin Moresco>Uh, regardless.

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<v Justin Moresco>Earthquake engineering deals with how structures respond to earthquakes and what happens to the whole cities and communities after earthquakes.

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<v Justin Moresco>And you can, you already see a ling in here because today we are talking about communities and societies and their resilience all the time In the fire, safety, engineering, and specifically in the wildfire, we engineering and I have found two guests that can confidently talk about transferring knowledge from the world of earthquake engineering into world of fire safety engineering, and those guests are.

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<v Justin Moresco>Professor Negar Elhami-Khorasani from university at Buffalo Negar is a structural engineer and she's been in the podcast a few episodes ago.

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<v Justin Moresco>She just won the Magnussen in the world at IFSS.

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<v Justin Moresco>And the second guest is Justin Moresco from Applied Technology Council, who's also uh, an earthquake engineer and who.

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<v Justin Moresco>who works a lot in transferring this knowledge from the space of earthquake engineering into the space of fire safety engineering.

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<v Justin Moresco>So in this particular episode, we will discuss about how.

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<v Justin Moresco>Earthquake engineering works with the disaster.

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<v Justin Moresco>What are the approaches that these guys are using?

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<v Justin Moresco>Uh, which of them are transferable to define safety engineering?

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<v Justin Moresco>What are the similarities?

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<v Justin Moresco>What are the differences?

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<v Justin Moresco>And basically what are the best things we can learn from earthquake engineers?

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<v Justin Moresco>And trust me, there is a lot of them.

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<v Justin Moresco>And they're not only applicable to wildfires, they're also applicable to normal building fires because some of this is, is.

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<v Justin Moresco>Pretty universal.

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<v Justin Moresco>They have a different views on stuff that we do.

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<v Justin Moresco>They definitely use a lot of probabilistic methods and risk in their assessments.

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<v Justin Moresco>I like it very much.

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<v Justin Moresco>So, yeah.

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<v Justin Moresco>Let's spin the intro and jump into the episode.

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<v Wojciech>The Fire Science Show podcast is brought to you in partnership with OFR Consultants.

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<v Wojciech>OFR is the UK's leading independent multi-award winning fire engineering consultancy with a reputation for delivering innovative safety driven solutions.

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<v Wojciech>we've been on this journey together for three years so far, and here it begins the fourth year of collaboration between the Fire Science Show and the OFR.

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<v Wojciech>Check their website@orconsultants.com And now let's head back to the episode.

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<v Wojciech>Hello everybody.

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<v Wojciech>joined once again by Negar Army, from University at Buffalo.

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<v Wojciech>Hey Nagar, welcome back.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Hello.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>It's great to be back and I'm really happy to be here this time, uh, with a wonderful colleague.

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<v Wojciech>yeah, we've promised a quick return and, and we have delivered.

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<v Wojciech>And, uh, the interesting colleague is Justin MoCo from Applied Technology Council.

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<v Wojciech>Hey Justin, welcome to the Fire, sun Show.

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<v Justin Moresco>It is great to be here, so great to be on this panel with Nagar.

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<v Wojciech>Fantastic.

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<v Wojciech>And, uh, Nagar, you're already well known to the Fire Science Show audience.

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<v Wojciech>If you don't know Negar, there's an episode about structural fire engineering that you have to catch up just in, you're here for the first time.

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<v Wojciech>Maybe, uh, can you introduce yourself, what you're doing and what's Supply Technology Council doing

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<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

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<v Justin Moresco>So I'm, I'm a structural engineer and an earthquake engineer.

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<v Justin Moresco>I'm, I'm with the Applied Technology Council.

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<v Justin Moresco>We're a nonprofit based in the San Francisco Bay area, and we develop tools, technologies, and resources to help communities be more resilient to natural hazards.

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<v Wojciech>Okay, and those natural hazards, I assume now evolve also wildfires.

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<v Justin Moresco>They do?

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<v Justin Moresco>Yes.

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<v Wojciech>Unfortunately.

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<v Wojciech>Yeah.

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<v Wojciech>we, we joined together, uh, Negar proposed to do this episode.

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<v Wojciech>and she got my attention by mentioning that you guys are trying to implement a lot of earthquake, uh, or earthquake engineering knowledge into improving resiliency of wildfire communities.

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<v Wojciech>And I found it very interesting, especially value those links between disciplines and, you know, learning from, from each other's.

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<v Wojciech>Maybe let's start with, uh, do you think, or why do you believe that, uh, engineering brings valuable lessons to, to wildfire, uh, resiliency?

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, um, earthquake engineering, um, research has been going on for many, many years, similar to wildfires, but earthquakes focusing inside the built environment and looking at, structures as well as communities, response and recover.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And, um, it started with life safety, basically saving lives, building the way that we can, resist the, earthquake.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then it has expanded in years and now days in the US to focus on, it's what's called functional recovery.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Basically the idea is that after, uh.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>an earthquake, not, not for every, uh, extreme earthquake, but given an earthquake intensity, want to have a functional, community after the event, to a reasonable extent.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So

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<v Wojciech>Hmm.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>even the, uh, way they've been thinking about it and given the tools that they have developed, we think that we don't have to reinvent the wool for other hazards.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, you know, other hazards such as floods, for example, have been following and now wildfire.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So we can't, we don't need to start from scratch.

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<v Wojciech>Hmm.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Wildfire is specific to itself, the, in terms of the dynamics of the fire and the details of, um, how it's present inside communities.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But, uh, we can learn how, uh, the tools and decision making happen in the earthquake and bring some of that into wildfire.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And I'll let Justin, add to that.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um.

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<v Justin Moresco>Yeah, no, I think what you said is spot on Nagar, that we've been fortunate, in the earthquake world in that we've had really, really well funded programs in the United States stretching back more than 50 years, where researchers and practitioners have been coming together to try to develop solutions to the problems of the hazard.

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<v Justin Moresco>And, and so then when we look over on, wooey Fires, uh, we see that a lot of these decision making tools don't seem to be there.

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<v Justin Moresco>And so we can then bring some of the learnings, um.

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<v Justin Moresco>Try to avoid the mistakes that were made over on the earthquake side and try to help move, um, Huey Fire, um, forward more quickly.

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<v Wojciech>so, so, okay.

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<v Wojciech>What's the similarities?

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<v Wojciech>What's the differences?

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<v Wojciech>I, I, I would assume that similarity is in, in the outcomes, in the damage, the differences that come immediately.

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<v Wojciech>My hand is kind of, not sure if you can predict earthquake, um, not an earthquake scientist, but my feeling is it's difficult, uh, whereas, uh, with wildfire, you perhaps have a warning shortly after a few hours a day, two days before.

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<v Wojciech>How, how do you feel about differences and, and, and, and similarities between the, the two fields

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<v Justin Moresco>in, in terms, well, I mean in terms of similarities, there's fundamentally, you have some sort of, you have a hazard, right?

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<v Justin Moresco>You have some, an intensity that can do damage, to the, the built environment.

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<v Justin Moresco>and so how you go about considering the interaction between that hazard and the built environment and then develop, estimates for what the outcomes of that damage may be.

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<v Justin Moresco>oftentimes it's, you know, expressed in terms of damage and fatalities and downtime, um, so that, you know, at, at the highest conceptual level, regardless of the hazard.

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<v Justin Moresco>I think that applies and we now have, like I said.

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<v Justin Moresco>Decades of experience demonstrating that we can do that and it can lead to informed decisions, right?

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<v Justin Moresco>So that communities can be more prepared and can hopefully reduce the expected losses, from, from future events.

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<v Justin Moresco>um, I think the, you know, at the highest level, that's where the, the similarities are.

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<v Justin Moresco>the, some of the, the differences are with wildfires.

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<v Justin Moresco>you do have a firefighting capacity,

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<v Wojciech>Hmm.

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<v Justin Moresco>that is, that is unique, um, at least to relative to the earthquake world.

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<v Justin Moresco>Um, you also have this, interaction between hazard and vulnerability.

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<v Justin Moresco>That is different, than the earthquake world.

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<v Justin Moresco>You, you could argue that you do have a similar pattern with other hazards like flood, for example, where you have debris that can be picked up and become part of the hazard.

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<v Justin Moresco>But on the wildfire side, you know, buildings that are highly vulnerable and therefore can become a source of the fire, um, create this sort of feedback loop that you don't get, over on the earthquake world.

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<v Justin Moresco>And then I think the other major difference that comes to mind for me is that you really have to be thinking at both the individual building level and the community level because.

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<v Justin Moresco>There is this, um, sort of herd.

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<v Justin Moresco>I, I like to use the term herd immunity concept, at least in my, in my, the way I conceptualize it.

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<v Justin Moresco>Where if you have a lot of buildings, if you take a typical, you know, say suburban neighborhood where you have a fairly dense, um, development, if some of those buildings catch fire and they're close to other assets, even if those other assets do have fairly fire resistant features, they're gonna be at a much higher probability of igniting themselves.

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<v Justin Moresco>And over in the earthquake world, you don't really have that phenomenon.

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<v Justin Moresco>You can, you can kind of largely sort of ignore the surrounding buildings.

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<v Justin Moresco>You can look at it more building by building, and, and still generate, you know, fairly accurate, expectations of loss.

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<v Wojciech>This is very interesting concept.

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<v Wojciech>And in terms of the, the background experience, do you consider this like a, a global perspective or is it more like a West coast US perspective from what, what you've been doing so far with the earthquake engineering

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<v Justin Moresco>Uh, from the earthquake side?

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<v Justin Moresco>No, I, I think at this point it's, it's global.

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<v Justin Moresco>There's, yeah, there's, there's research groups in, in Europe, Italy, um, Pavia comes to mind.

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<v Justin Moresco>Uh, London, uh, Japan has a lot of, um, advanced earthquake engineering, New Zealand Advanced Earthquake Engineering.

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<v Justin Moresco>there's probably, uh, south America, Chile is quite sophisticated and I think at this point, probably most people have more or less adopted, um, a, a pretty common methodology to how you think about risk from, from earthquakes.

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<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

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<v Wojciech>concepts that we're discussing today in the world of earthquake engineering.

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<v Wojciech>Please, uh, forgive me my ignorance, but I, I literally don't know this space at all.

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<v Wojciech>Uh, are they like, well matured?

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<v Wojciech>Is it something being developed or, or like, how far ahead is earthquake engineering with those concepts, uh, ahead from us.

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<v Justin Moresco>It, it, it's, it's very well developed.

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<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

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<v Wojciech>Okay.

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<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

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<v Justin Moresco>Very well developed.

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<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I will just add something perhaps quick.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, so I agree with what Justin mentioned, the similarities and, uh, differences.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, what else I can think of perhaps on the, The life safety part again for me.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So earthquake, um, you, as you mentioned, you don't get much warning right.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, uh, you really need to design your structures to stand up, uh, once the earthquake happens.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So life safety is pretty important.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Consideration.

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<v Wojciech>Hmm.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, it's the same thing for ui.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Life safety is super important, but I think it's easier hopefully, to be achieved because of the warning that you have.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>If you think about the evacu evacuation routes, if you, they're, they're properly designed, or alternatives.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I know that, um.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We have not the, the, the, at least in the US the idea is to have the community evacuated, not staying back and fighting the fire.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But some of the recent fires extremely, intense and I would say that led to fatalities.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>For example, the Lahaina fire, it happened so close to the community.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>It basically was at the border of the community

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<v Wojciech>Hmm.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>the warning was not, you know, It wasn't a lot of time, and then there was a gridlock and people couldn't get out.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, um, it actually led to fatalities.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So in those cases, maybe the option of having a shelter, inside the community, some, you know, other options to be considered, uh, so that people can, uh, not necess, they don't necessarily need to evacuate outside the community, but if there's a nearby shelter that they can get in for safety.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But potentially, for me, I think the life safety problem in the should not be as hard as the earthquake side.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>However, the damage side, you know, after an earthquake, yes, you may have collapsed structures, hopefully not, but you, you still have buildings that might be standing and you just need to have to go back and repair.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Whereas after Hui, technically what, where we stand right now, we look at communities where tens of thousands of houses are gone.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>There's nothing left.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the level of destruction is pretty, intense after these recent w events we've had in, especially in the us.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So that site then is pretty much rebuilding from scratch again,

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<v Wojciech>Hmm.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>um, makes it, um, harder on the WWE side than the earthquake side.

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<v Wojciech>Interesting about that aspect of, of, uh, wildfires, communities in a short notice and being able to escape.

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<v Wojciech>I had a really interesting, uh, interview with Eric Link and, and we've discussed, uh, NIST Escape Project, that, uh, I think that was campfire.

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<v Wojciech>It was campfire, yeah.

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<v Wojciech>So, so I would refer to, to that podcast episode.

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<v Wojciech>You'll find it in the shows.

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<v Wojciech>Of course, of course.

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<v Wojciech>You'll, uh, okay.

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<v Wojciech>Let's move, uh, so we know, uh, why should we learn from Meco engineering?

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<v Wojciech>And now you've convinced me that, uh, those people know some stuff that I'm potentially interested in hearing.

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<v Wojciech>So let's hear it out.

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<v Wojciech>What's, what's the paradigm of, building this resilience through the lens of, earthquake engineering?

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<v Wojciech>Where, where would we start in applying the knowledge from that space?

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, in earthquake engineering, the risk, um, probabilistic risk assessment methodology that's pretty well established, um, basically relates to this performance based design.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So they have a very systematic way of, defining the problem.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>in.

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<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Specific pieces and then connecting those pieces together.

00:16:03.212 --> 00:16:11.004
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then the beauty of the, I would say, methodology is that, each piece, um, has its own uncertainty.

00:16:11.004 --> 00:16:16.134
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So because it's extreme event, we don't, we can't, it's, it doesn't make sense to do deterministic analysis.

00:16:16.134 --> 00:16:22.975
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So each, I would say, piece of the process will have its own uncertainties and we then can quantify them.

00:16:22.975 --> 00:16:27.654
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I'll mention the four pieces, and then I'll let Justin to continue

00:16:27.740 --> 00:16:31.250
<v Wojciech>I was, I was about to interrupt you and ask what the pieces are.

00:16:31.269 --> 00:16:31.840
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>the pieces?

00:16:31.840 --> 00:16:37.149
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Okay, I'm gonna mention the four pieces and then let, uh, Justin expand on it.

00:16:37.149 --> 00:16:38.950
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the first piece is the hazard.

00:16:38.950 --> 00:16:42.970
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So it's, if we think of these as boxes, the first box is a hazard box.

00:16:42.970 --> 00:16:46.333
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Then, um, there is what we call system response.

00:16:46.333 --> 00:16:49.153
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Basically, let's say right now, let's think of it as a building.

00:16:49.153 --> 00:16:51.494
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You're looking at earthquake response of the building.

00:16:51.494 --> 00:16:56.774
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So hazard is the earthquake, and then you have the building response to that, uh, earthquake.

00:16:56.774 --> 00:16:59.083
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Then what we call damage assessment.

00:16:59.083 --> 00:17:00.374
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So now you had a response.

00:17:00.374 --> 00:17:01.903
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>What was the level of damage?

00:17:01.903 --> 00:17:05.594
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then finally from that damage was the level of loss.

00:17:05.788 --> 00:17:09.048
<v Wojciech>and each of them would be considered from a probabilistic perspective.

00:17:09.482 --> 00:17:10.893
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Each, yeah, each box.

00:17:10.893 --> 00:17:15.482
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the hazard you have, you don't have one earthquake, you have a suit of ground motions.

00:17:15.482 --> 00:17:17.282
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, the system responds.

00:17:17.282 --> 00:17:22.863
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Basically you are looking at how your building is shaking and then quantifying that.

00:17:22.863 --> 00:17:24.935
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then, the third one, damage.

00:17:24.935 --> 00:17:31.321
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You typically, quantify the probability of exceeding a certain, um, damaged state.

00:17:31.321 --> 00:17:41.674
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, you lump these things because, otherwise it's gonna be very hard to, Do this process for every, I mean, there are different level of, we can get into this.

00:17:41.674 --> 00:17:55.737
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>This is perhaps after we, there are different level of details of, uh, quantification that you can do if you do a inventory of buildings at the community level versus if you look at one, a single building, that's, there's a different level of detail.

00:17:55.737 --> 00:17:59.606
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You can look into this and then, but there is a probability of exceeding a damage state.

00:17:59.606 --> 00:18:02.846
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So that's again, a probabilistic uh, approach.

00:18:02.846 --> 00:18:05.787
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And finally, from there you get the probability of loss, which is risk.

00:18:06.042 --> 00:18:15.323
<v Wojciech>I, I really love we're talking about frameworks and, you know, worked out stuff that that's potentially applicable, but yeah, please just expand on those.

00:18:16.034 --> 00:18:23.672
<v Justin Moresco>so gi given and, and there are different terms that are used in different, you know, sort of applications or we might call them industries.

00:18:23.672 --> 00:18:32.521
<v Justin Moresco>Uh, I mean the terms that I, I sort of came up with using our, our hazard exposure, vulnerability and then consequences.

00:18:32.521 --> 00:18:42.204
<v Justin Moresco>and one of the powers that this enables is that, like Nagar was saying, that there's, there's different, um, sort of levels and complexity.

00:18:42.204 --> 00:18:43.765
<v Justin Moresco>You can apply, right?

00:18:43.765 --> 00:18:54.921
<v Justin Moresco>And you can, depending on the need and also sort of the, the sort of capacity that somebody has in terms of time and budget, you can make things ratchet up the complexity or the simplicity.

00:18:54.921 --> 00:19:07.231
<v Justin Moresco>but you know, just to give one, one really powerful tool is to go back and, and look at what would happen if a well-known historical event were to occur again.

00:19:07.231 --> 00:19:14.601
<v Justin Moresco>you know, at least in California where I'm from, one of the most famous earthquakes was in 1906 that devastated San Francisco.

00:19:14.601 --> 00:19:33.128
<v Justin Moresco>And so there's been a lot of work that's done to say, okay, given the current inventory that we have information about the buildings and the people in the region, if that same earthquake were to occur today, what would the expected losses be?

00:19:33.128 --> 00:19:50.559
<v Justin Moresco>and that because there's so much sort of public awareness of that event, when you then do that sort of study, it automatically becomes, um, of high interest to the media and the public and, um, and that, you know, bring some awareness to the current risk.

00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:54.039
<v Justin Moresco>And it can help emergency managers and their planning.

00:19:54.039 --> 00:19:59.980
<v Justin Moresco>It can help policy makers justify investing more in earthquake safety and, and resilience.

00:19:59.980 --> 00:20:04.248
<v Justin Moresco>Um, so that, that's like one single scenario event.

00:20:04.248 --> 00:20:14.762
<v Justin Moresco>Um, but then you can make that ratchet up the complexity and you can say, well, we're not just gonna consider rerunning, one historical event.

00:20:14.762 --> 00:20:27.903
<v Justin Moresco>We're gonna consider all potential future events that we, that we think are likely, uh, and the most sophisticated models out there would then have tens of thousands of potential.

00:20:27.903 --> 00:20:29.772
<v Justin Moresco>Individual events.

00:20:29.772 --> 00:20:50.053
<v Justin Moresco>And these, these models would have that same information about the, the existing inventory that's out there, but then they run each one of those, um, they carry through the uncertainties in terms of the level of shaking caused by each one of those events, the amount of damage that would occur, and then the losses that result.

00:20:50.053 --> 00:21:12.103
<v Justin Moresco>Um, you do that for tens of thousands of events and, and then you can generate, um, statistics, probabilities on, okay, well what do we think the what, what are the what, what are the average annualized losses, from all those events Or, um, what, what is the probability of, of exceeding a certain level of damage in the future?

00:21:12.103 --> 00:21:17.247
<v Justin Moresco>communicating that kind of information becomes more complicated because it's probabilistic.

00:21:17.247 --> 00:21:25.751
<v Justin Moresco>Um, so the places where that kind of information gets used is, within the insurance industry, right?

00:21:25.751 --> 00:21:36.113
<v Justin Moresco>So they would, um, insurance companies would want to be able to demonstrate that, they have enough claims, paying capacity, considering all possible future events.

00:21:36.113 --> 00:21:41.172
<v Justin Moresco>it also enables true or benefit cost analysis, right?

00:21:41.172 --> 00:21:49.092
<v Justin Moresco>Because to do a real sort of, you know, rigorous benefit cost analysis, you don't wanna just consider one possible event.

00:21:49.092 --> 00:21:52.932
<v Justin Moresco>You want to consider all possible future events.

00:21:52.932 --> 00:22:11.614
<v Justin Moresco>and so you can imagine, you could say, okay, well, Here's this new building code or these new important changes that we'd like to make to the way, um, cities are developed or buildings are constructed, say, with with enhanced resistive capacities to, in this case earthquakes, but it could also be to, to other hazards.

00:22:11.614 --> 00:22:16.259
<v Justin Moresco>Um, if we were to make those changes, what would the benefits be?

00:22:16.259 --> 00:22:25.184
<v Justin Moresco>And, and the way you would look at those benefits is you would say, okay, well let's, let's imagine that all these events occur under the status quo and now and get our.

00:22:25.184 --> 00:22:27.779
<v Justin Moresco>Expected annualized losses.

00:22:27.779 --> 00:22:37.767
<v Justin Moresco>and now let's, let's imagine that that a certain percentage of the buildings or all of the buildings and all of the communities are built to this higher standard.

00:22:37.767 --> 00:22:44.018
<v Justin Moresco>And then we, and now we, now we run the models again and, the losses should come down.

00:22:44.018 --> 00:22:53.198
<v Justin Moresco>And so you can compare the losses under the current status quo versus the expected losses under the, that enhanced sort of building practices.

00:22:53.198 --> 00:22:55.972
<v Justin Moresco>and there should be a, a big delta, we hope.

00:22:55.972 --> 00:23:04.041
<v Justin Moresco>Um, and then you can, and you can use that over, you know, you, you've gotta take into consideration the, the time value of money.

00:23:04.041 --> 00:23:09.855
<v Justin Moresco>but you can then arrive at a present day, cost benefit analysis, and, and.

00:23:09.922 --> 00:23:12.832
<v Wojciech>Yeah, I, I see the direct applicability of that approach.

00:23:12.832 --> 00:23:24.865
<v Wojciech>However, I also see like an imminent problem with it because, uh, the scenario definition, I believe for earthquake it would be just the earthquake, while the severity of the fire will largely depend on level.

00:23:24.865 --> 00:23:27.955
<v Wojciech>So you have an nasty feedback loop within there, right?

00:23:28.729 --> 00:23:29.298
<v Justin Moresco>Exactly.

00:23:29.355 --> 00:23:30.224
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Right, right.

00:23:30.224 --> 00:23:37.664
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, so I'll, let me, um, dive in a little bit on the earthquake side and then bring it back to your question and the community side.

00:23:37.664 --> 00:23:43.424
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So when we do this type of analysis, again, the level of, um, complexity, um, may vary.

00:23:43.424 --> 00:23:48.105
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You may look at one structure or you may look at a whole inventory of structures.

00:23:48.540 --> 00:23:48.661
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:23:48.734 --> 00:23:50.144
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>you're looking at one structure.

00:23:50.144 --> 00:23:54.674
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>there's this concept of fragility function in earthquake engineering that quantifies damage.

00:23:54.674 --> 00:23:59.924
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And that is a function of, um, XA is basically your hazard.

00:23:59.924 --> 00:24:09.105
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Like your, either depends again, but it, it's a, it's a function of your hazard intensity or the impact of the hazard on your structure.

00:24:09.105 --> 00:24:13.305
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So in earthquake, for example, drift, how much your structure is deforming, right?

00:24:13.305 --> 00:24:15.734
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>That's a function of your earthquake intensity.

00:24:15.734 --> 00:24:19.694
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then the Y axis is the probability of exceeding a damage state.

00:24:19.694 --> 00:24:25.724
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And that again is lumped as is a slight damage, moderate damage, extreme damage or collapse.

00:24:25.724 --> 00:24:28.484
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And when we say slight or moderate, then these.

00:24:28.484 --> 00:24:31.759
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Have their own specific definitions.

00:24:31.759 --> 00:24:40.846
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So slight damage is just, you know, crack some cracks, minor cracks, something that, doesn't really compromise safety all the way again to collapse, right?

00:24:40.846 --> 00:24:49.473
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, you look at these and you say, okay, this can be derived for individual structures as a function of your structural system.

00:24:49.473 --> 00:24:54.394
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>A steel moment frame will have a different and a high, and also number of stories.

00:24:54.394 --> 00:25:04.141
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So a high-rise steel moment frame will have different set of fragility functions compared to a low rise, concrete structure with shoe roll

00:25:04.582 --> 00:25:04.801
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:25:04.951 --> 00:25:05.461
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>up something.

00:25:05.461 --> 00:25:05.760
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Okay?

00:25:05.760 --> 00:25:17.683
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So this is how we categorize an earthquake engineering, try to, Basically quantify again, the uncertainties, but then scale it up where you can look at the inventory of structures.

00:25:17.904 --> 00:25:18.384
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:25:18.733 --> 00:25:27.617
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Now, if I wanna tie back to your, uh, question on the, the one approach, again, it's, it's, it's conceptual.

00:25:27.617 --> 00:25:39.384
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We haven't done it yet, but, it is not sufficient to look at these fragilities or develop these fragilities basically at the structural level, even if it's just a residential.

00:25:39.384 --> 00:25:46.494
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You know, we categorize as this house has certain number of features with this level of vulnerability.

00:25:46.494 --> 00:25:50.343
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So this is going to be the, the probability of exceeding certain damage state.

00:25:50.343 --> 00:26:11.691
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But I think we may need to look again broader and think about, Community archetypes or neighborhood uh, representation of the conditions because of the dependence of your hazard intensity on the vulnerability because the houses become the fuel themselves.

00:26:11.691 --> 00:26:20.330
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>They start burning, they create the intensity for houses downstream, and therefore there's that feedback loop loop again.

00:26:20.330 --> 00:26:33.861
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So if you have more vulnerable neighborhood, it means that there may potentially all catch on fire the amount of heat, energy and potentially fire spotting that other houses will receive, it's gonna go higher.

00:26:33.861 --> 00:26:42.849
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So it won't be enough just to perhaps look at, and we can derive, we can develop these fragilities and it could potentially be maybe binary.

00:26:42.849 --> 00:26:46.434
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I don't know how much in between damage we get for these timber.

00:26:46.434 --> 00:26:49.029
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Yeah, pretty much, right?

00:26:49.029 --> 00:26:50.740
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So either Yeah.

00:26:50.740 --> 00:26:58.329
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But, um, at the neighborhood level, then we have to, um, and, and you don't have to come up with a fragility function.

00:26:58.329 --> 00:27:00.849
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You can always come up with a fragility surface, for example.

00:27:00.849 --> 00:27:07.390
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So you have multiple X axis in terms of ca, um, characterization of the community, like structure, separation distances.

00:27:07.390 --> 00:27:14.589
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You know, you need to combine some of these, parameters that influence the hazard and the outcome.

00:27:15.500 --> 00:27:25.131
<v Wojciech>who's the user of that is so, so this tool in that sense is not perhaps guided towards a single house investor.

00:27:25.131 --> 00:27:26.300
<v Wojciech>Like, I'm building my house.

00:27:26.300 --> 00:27:33.500
<v Wojciech>I would like to understand how to build my house best, because then you just apply, you know, the best guidance that that exists.

00:27:33.500 --> 00:27:38.060
<v Wojciech>Uh, there are guidelines how to, um, your structure.

00:27:38.060 --> 00:27:40.701
<v Wojciech>I think that's the correct word, hardening, uh, structures.

00:27:40.701 --> 00:27:41.270
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:27:41.270 --> 00:27:46.851
<v Wojciech>But, uh, this is more guided towards community and, and, and like urban management.

00:27:46.851 --> 00:27:47.162
<v Wojciech>Right.

00:27:47.346 --> 00:27:47.675
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Yes.

00:27:47.675 --> 00:27:59.294
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So emergency management, the fire department, the, these commun communities, typically in the US they have their, wildfire protection plans, community, wildfire protection plans.

00:27:59.294 --> 00:28:20.739
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And, um, the PE people around the table again include, um, the Fire Chief, the Office of Emergency Management, um, and they are trying to understand the risk to their community basically prepare for it, prepare if the risk is too high, they, they think they have to do something right.

00:28:20.896 --> 00:28:33.166
<v Wojciech>I'm asking this because, uh, you know, I, I assume that in earthquake engineering, this process is a part of designing a building and figuring out how I should do the PPD for this particular building, it's also done at community level.

00:28:33.236 --> 00:28:34.221
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>is also that community.

00:28:34.221 --> 00:28:34.436
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Just,

00:28:34.734 --> 00:28:41.540
<v Justin Moresco>so on on, on the earthquake side, so for, the, the classic way is you're develop, you're designing right?

00:28:41.540 --> 00:28:52.385
<v Justin Moresco>An an individual building and, there are, within structural engineering, considering earthquakes, um, there, there, what's most commonly is to follow prescriptive methods.

00:28:52.385 --> 00:29:01.340
<v Justin Moresco>So it, it's important to emphasize that it's not that every building is being designed with performance-based design, but it, it's still a small percentage.

00:29:01.340 --> 00:29:20.151
<v Justin Moresco>However, what's been done over the years as those prescriptive designs have been tested, um, using this sort of risk framework that we were described to build confidence that those buildings following the prescriptive methods, achieve a certain reliability.

00:29:20.151 --> 00:29:26.593
<v Justin Moresco>That, that is, that they have a very small, probability of collapse, in a very extreme event.

00:29:26.593 --> 00:29:45.737
<v Justin Moresco>and so what, what comes to mind for me is that we now are seeing, and for, and I apologize, I'm most familiar with what's happening on the west coast of the us and, and I know your audience is much broader than that, but, um, but at least, in the west coast of the United States, there's now this growing interest in more hardened structures.

00:29:45.737 --> 00:29:53.397
<v Justin Moresco>And there, there is a, ICE International Code Committee, code, right, that can, that is being increasingly adopted.

00:29:53.397 --> 00:30:09.448
<v Justin Moresco>But I don't think any nagar you can say, but I, I don't think anyone can, could tell us, well, what is the expected performance of a community that designs its, its buildings, its communities to these prescriptive rules.

00:30:09.448 --> 00:30:13.448
<v Justin Moresco>And so one thing you could do then, if you have a.

00:30:13.448 --> 00:30:23.914
<v Justin Moresco>kind of tool, the beginnings of tools that Nagar was just talking about is we could start to test analytically, well, what kind of performance do, do we actually expect to get?

00:30:24.027 --> 00:30:24.537
<v Wojciech>what would happen

00:30:24.545 --> 00:30:24.755
<v Justin Moresco>Uh,

00:30:24.807 --> 00:30:25.527
<v Wojciech>had more

00:30:25.565 --> 00:30:25.835
<v Justin Moresco>yeah.

00:30:26.156 --> 00:30:27.416
<v Wojciech>buildings in our community?

00:30:27.416 --> 00:30:27.679
<v Wojciech>Not

00:30:27.743 --> 00:30:27.983
<v Justin Moresco>right.

00:30:27.983 --> 00:30:34.290
<v Justin Moresco>And then, yeah, and then that comes back to, you can say, okay, well, what's the performance that we'd expect under the status quo?

00:30:34.417 --> 00:30:34.538
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:30:35.101 --> 00:30:41.431
<v Justin Moresco>Um, under d And you'd have to be, you'd have to consider many different, um, ey fire scenarios.

00:30:41.431 --> 00:30:41.790
<v Justin Moresco>Right.

00:30:41.790 --> 00:30:55.279
<v Justin Moresco>Um, you can't just pick one individual scenario, but, but then you could also start to look at, well, yeah, if we start changing the way that we're designing our buildings and, designing our communities, how do the outcomes improve?

00:30:55.279 --> 00:30:58.789
<v Justin Moresco>And, and then you could also start to incorporate costs.

00:30:58.789 --> 00:31:00.200
<v Justin Moresco>I mean, I know all this is.

00:31:00.200 --> 00:31:02.153
<v Justin Moresco>There's a lot of hand waving that I'm doing right now.

00:31:02.153 --> 00:31:19.130
<v Justin Moresco>It it, it's not simple but you could imagine in the long run through some hard work, we could maybe get to the point where you actually could start doing that kind of analytical testing and then that could help to justify changes in the way that we develop our communities.

00:31:19.811 --> 00:31:20.791
<v Wojciech>That's an interesting concept.

00:31:20.791 --> 00:31:21.112
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:31:21.628 --> 00:31:21.898
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Right.

00:31:21.898 --> 00:31:28.003
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And I will just add, so, um, it, it's my experience for example, working in, uh, one community.

00:31:28.003 --> 00:31:30.740
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>they have limited resources.

00:31:30.740 --> 00:31:37.701
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So for them, the questions that where do they want to spend their resources to have the maximum impact?

00:31:37.701 --> 00:31:48.701
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>typically, again, like a fire chief of a community, they have a good feeling based on their experience of where could potentially be their vulnerabilities.

00:31:48.701 --> 00:32:03.483
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But once you start showing them the quantitative assessment and, potentially say, okay, we rerun the simulations, now we implement, and working with communities means that they actually, uh, bring to the table that these are our options.

00:32:03.483 --> 00:32:22.071
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We can, for example, in terms of we doesn't have to be, uh, it, it, well structure hardening is, um, definitely something they want to consider, but, cutting vegetation inside the community, for example, that's something that might be easier for them to implement from the policy perspective.

00:32:22.071 --> 00:32:24.231
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And it's, it's in their control.

00:32:24.231 --> 00:32:42.588
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, so they want to see the change in, let's say, The level of damage that they eventually get if they implement something like that, cutting vegetation in a specific neighborhood because they don't really have the resources to do it all across, for example, the community.

00:32:42.588 --> 00:32:46.578
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So then you look at historically where could be the ignitions, right?

00:32:46.578 --> 00:32:48.499
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the hazard, the variability in the hazard.

00:32:48.499 --> 00:32:59.898
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Whereas potentially the higher risk of having higher likelihood of having a fire an an ignition that will go outta hand.

00:32:59.898 --> 00:33:08.141
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And during a season with a wind condition that will impact your community.

00:33:08.141 --> 00:33:23.508
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>and those are the things that I think, again, drawing parallels that will fall under the hazard box, where we start looking at ignitions and directional wind, blah, blah, blah, and then damage how much damage you're gonna have.

00:33:23.508 --> 00:33:34.133
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then the community stakeholders will decide that, okay, potentially we might, if we have X amount of dollars right now, this is where we're gonna go in and actually do something in this neighborhood.

00:33:34.682 --> 00:33:45.358
<v Wojciech>do you also involve calculations of ability to evacuate people, for example, like, firefighting operations in that, or you're just looking at from the damage layer perspective?

00:33:45.358 --> 00:33:45.608
<v Wojciech>That's it.

00:33:46.348 --> 00:33:51.058
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>um, ideally yes, we should include all of that again from the earthquake side.

00:33:51.058 --> 00:34:04.288
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We look at things holistically with infrastructure, transportation, power, water, all of that on the we, so let me just expand a little bit on the earthquake side, the concept of fragility that I mentioned.

00:34:04.288 --> 00:34:09.253
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We now have fragility functions for water pipelines for bridges.

00:34:09.253 --> 00:34:11.443
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Right for transportation bridges.

00:34:11.443 --> 00:34:18.583
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, so you know your bridge type, you know, your bridge structural system, it's, it's a steel girders single span.

00:34:18.583 --> 00:34:35.983
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So you have this fragility, you know, the potential earthquake scenario, and then you apply and say, okay, the, the likelihood of exceeding, you know, extreme damage for this specific bridge is such and such, which then means that, uh, because after an earthquake, again, the emergency response, they need to, it's chaotic.

00:34:35.983 --> 00:34:37.851
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>They need to, get to the community.

00:34:37.851 --> 00:34:53.692
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>If, if, uh, and I, for earthquakes, I've also had experience working with a community and they were worried about creating islands where they, if they have too many bridges and if those bridges get damaged, means that they could potentially have an island, like a neighborhood that may not be reachable.

00:34:53.692 --> 00:35:05.692
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So these are the things that they look on the earthquake side, uh, on the side, I would say that, um, there's a lot of research, very excellent research going on, on the evacuation side.

00:35:05.692 --> 00:35:21.166
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>definitely, um, well, there's some research going on on the impact of fire on Water, but integrating them all together within a, I would say, community resilience assessment.

00:35:21.166 --> 00:35:23.152
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We're not there yet

00:35:23.358 --> 00:35:23.978
<v Wojciech>That's another.

00:35:23.992 --> 00:35:29.387
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>have been doing research in pieces, but with the same community.

00:35:29.387 --> 00:35:33.376
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, we were looking at the level of damage and what resources you have.

00:35:33.376 --> 00:35:39.695
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>They actually had a separate study going on with a separate group, at their evacuation plan.

00:35:40.077 --> 00:35:40.737
<v Wojciech>Good, good, good.

00:35:40.737 --> 00:35:45.117
<v Wojciech>It's, I, I mean, I'm, I'm scouting, where are we and what's to be done?

00:35:45.117 --> 00:35:52.018
<v Wojciech>I know that evacuation part is growing and we had, uh, example, in podcast, um, mentioned multiple times.

00:35:52.018 --> 00:35:55.827
<v Wojciech>We had a Ty episode as well, which has, again in the show notes.

00:35:55.827 --> 00:35:58.947
<v Wojciech>Um, let's, uh, change the focus a little bit.

00:35:58.947 --> 00:36:02.097
<v Wojciech>You mentioned earlier the archetypes of buildings.

00:36:02.097 --> 00:36:13.077
<v Wojciech>Perhaps this is something interesting to discuss, and again, something that's not very familiar to me from my fire safety engineering experience, but perhaps something very obvious for earthquake engineers.

00:36:13.077 --> 00:36:17.128
<v Wojciech>So what do you mean by archetypes of buildings and how this concept can be used?

00:36:17.472 --> 00:36:33.474
<v Justin Moresco>The idea is that in order to try to do this sort of community scale risk assessments, that we're, it's not gonna be a realistic to define every single building, in great detail, right?

00:36:33.474 --> 00:36:40.135
<v Justin Moresco>And so we want to try to identify what are the features of these buildings that are most.

00:36:40.135 --> 00:36:47.050
<v Justin Moresco>Determinant of the building's response, um, and therefore damage, um, given ground shaking.

00:36:47.050 --> 00:36:58.630
<v Justin Moresco>And so over the years, there's been a lot of work done on this where the, the sort of key features that get distinguished are the, the structural system.

00:36:58.630 --> 00:37:09.713
<v Justin Moresco>is, is it steel and what are some of the, and then within steel there's, there's different types of, um, structural systems, braced frame or moment frame and, and, and others, is it reinforced concrete?

00:37:09.713 --> 00:37:11.994
<v Justin Moresco>Um, and then there's subcategories of that.

00:37:11.994 --> 00:37:12.893
<v Justin Moresco>Is it wood framed?

00:37:12.893 --> 00:37:14.454
<v Justin Moresco>And there's sub-categories of that.

00:37:14.454 --> 00:37:16.253
<v Justin Moresco>So that's the structural system.

00:37:16.253 --> 00:37:17.844
<v Justin Moresco>Then the height.

00:37:17.844 --> 00:37:20.829
<v Justin Moresco>Of the building is, is quite significant.

00:37:20.829 --> 00:37:31.865
<v Justin Moresco>and the, the vintage, um, and, and the, the reason the vintage is so important is because, um, that tells you what building standards it was designed and constructed under.

00:37:31.865 --> 00:37:43.028
<v Justin Moresco>And, and so, um, you can combine all that information with, you know, other studies that have been done, both experimental and um, um, numerical.

00:37:43.028 --> 00:37:49.186
<v Justin Moresco>to then, describe their potential for damage, um, their, their fragilities.

00:37:49.186 --> 00:38:18.871
<v Justin Moresco>and once you've built up enough of a catalog of these fragilities, um, you can, when you go into, um, analyzing a community or if it's an individual portfolio, um, going again, that, that could be say for an insurance company or if you just wanna look at schools within a community or hospitals within a community, having that catalog then allows you to more readily assign the fragilities, within that portfolio that you're looking at.

00:38:19.278 --> 00:38:23.869
<v Wojciech>Are you defining them primarily through the lens of how they are built?

00:38:23.869 --> 00:38:26.478
<v Wojciech>Do you take into account where they are located?

00:38:26.478 --> 00:38:35.239
<v Wojciech>Like for example, in wildfires, the terrain would have a significant, uh, impact on your potential damage.

00:38:35.239 --> 00:38:39.451
<v Wojciech>So here it's not just what's the building, but where is it?

00:38:39.451 --> 00:38:41.851
<v Wojciech>What's around, like how, how

00:38:41.918 --> 00:38:42.159
<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

00:38:42.271 --> 00:38:44.221
<v Wojciech>translate this concept to, to wildfire?

00:38:44.637 --> 00:38:51.867
<v Justin Moresco>earthquake side, the, um, where, where it's built would be directly related to how it was built.

00:38:51.867 --> 00:38:57.637
<v Justin Moresco>um, and, and so that, that's gonna give you information about the, the codes that were in place.

00:38:57.637 --> 00:39:09.967
<v Justin Moresco>And, and then that, that in turn tell can help you understand, you know, how effective those codes are and therefore how effective the building is in, in resisting forces.

00:39:09.967 --> 00:39:13.744
<v Justin Moresco>the effect of the, the local site conditions.

00:39:13.744 --> 00:39:20.463
<v Justin Moresco>I'm not sure if that's what you were talking about, but at least within the earthquake world, and maybe there's an analogy here for, for Woo, we fire to pass it over to the guard.

00:39:20.463 --> 00:39:28.324
<v Justin Moresco>But in the earthquake world, if you have really soft soils, those then amplify the shaking,

00:39:28.349 --> 00:39:28.710
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Yes.

00:39:29.197 --> 00:39:29.527
<v Justin Moresco>right?

00:39:29.527 --> 00:39:39.235
<v Justin Moresco>And so that, that local site condition affects the hazard, but it doesn't affect the capacity of that individual building to resist those forces.

00:39:39.235 --> 00:39:43.717
<v Justin Moresco>Uh, and so we're able to distinguish the two pretty cleanly.

00:39:43.717 --> 00:39:45.869
<v Justin Moresco>and so now I'll pass it over to Nagar.

00:39:46.170 --> 00:39:57.960
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>that, what I was thinking that you, so on, on the earthquake side, because the soil type makes a difference on the hazard side in terms of what is actually the building is feeling.

00:39:58.097 --> 00:39:58.516
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:39:59.460 --> 00:40:03.451
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>then, that, that part is definitely incorporated in the hazard box.

00:40:03.451 --> 00:40:16.005
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, for the, um, w I would say topography, uh, still probably fits best in the hazard part, although we have, again, that feedback loop.

00:40:16.005 --> 00:40:25.005
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the hardest part with the oui fires, that feedback between the vulnerable and hazard, the, the two boxes will have a cycle back and forth.

00:40:25.005 --> 00:40:28.931
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>uh, and it's not a clean one way direction.

00:40:28.931 --> 00:40:38.572
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, I will also mention this, uh, that, uh, when, when we are talking about these archetypes So one, I would say 2, 2, 2 points.

00:40:38.572 --> 00:40:47.452
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Point number one, we do see that age built, like the year built of a, um, structure actually makes a difference in

00:40:47.538 --> 00:40:47.887
<v Wojciech>Right.

00:40:48.141 --> 00:40:48.621
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>fires.

00:40:48.621 --> 00:40:55.349
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>There, there are studies, if you look at campfire, um, so I'll mention Laina for example.

00:40:55.349 --> 00:41:02.083
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>There was a neighborhood, neighborhood, built just couple years before the fire event.

00:41:02.083 --> 00:41:09.099
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And only five out of hundreds of houses in that neighborhood burned down.

00:41:09.099 --> 00:41:16.079
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Everything else survived primarily because of the, it wasn't, they were built to the code.

00:41:16.079 --> 00:41:18.043
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, the most recent code.

00:41:18.043 --> 00:41:26.744
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And the idea was it wasn't necessarily following detailing for fire, but they had upgraded the code for wind.

00:41:26.744 --> 00:41:38.068
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And there were details there such as, you know, the, um, eaves and, you know, things that benefited the fire side.

00:41:38.068 --> 00:41:43.007
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So embers, for example, didn't, accumulate or didn't cause ignition.

00:41:43.007 --> 00:41:52.547
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the idea of, and this is something that I think we are borrowing when we look at year built, the idea is coming from, again, different hazards.

00:41:52.547 --> 00:41:59.086
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>When we, in the we, we look at California fires and we look at the inventory of buildings and we categorize the structures.

00:41:59.086 --> 00:42:03.137
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We are doing something exactly in parallel what happened in earthquake engineering.

00:42:03.137 --> 00:42:12.088
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And then say, okay, if it was built to the code from this state to this state, from this state to this state, are we seeing improved performance of the building inventories?

00:42:12.088 --> 00:42:18.909
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And at well, that that will depend based on what I've seen on the level of intensity of the fire.

00:42:18.909 --> 00:42:29.266
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>In cases that the fires are really extreme and we have had a few, um, we are not building bunkers, we're still building houses.

00:42:29.266 --> 00:42:33.166
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So at some point these houses will break regardless of how well you design them.

00:42:33.166 --> 00:42:38.769
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>but for more moderate fires, you actually see a difference.

00:42:38.769 --> 00:42:46.929
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You see structures that are built more recently to better code actually survive, which then themselves reduce the hazard.

00:42:46.929 --> 00:42:48.039
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Again, that feedback loop.

00:42:48.065 --> 00:42:48.485
<v Wojciech>Mm-hmm.

00:42:48.485 --> 00:43:01.550
<v Wojciech>wonder how much of that is also evolution in materials and just, uh, general trends perhaps, you know, and a new material for exterior of your building is more trendy in, in the recent years.

00:43:01.550 --> 00:43:04.971
<v Wojciech>And it, by the way, it is also better for fire.

00:43:04.971 --> 00:43:10.940
<v Wojciech>I wonder if we're capable of, of capturing those trends along the codes changes because code changes.

00:43:10.940 --> 00:43:12.891
<v Wojciech>I mean, it sounds easy.

00:43:12.891 --> 00:43:14.871
<v Wojciech>Just follow when the code has changed.

00:43:14.871 --> 00:43:18.320
<v Wojciech>But it's probably a madness to follow that on a great scale.

00:43:18.320 --> 00:43:22.740
<v Wojciech>But I, I, I wonder how much materials also change and how big differences there are.

00:43:23.724 --> 00:43:28.255
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>of it, I think it's definitely, I mean, as years past, we definitely have improved materials.

00:43:28.255 --> 00:43:41.704
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Some of it on the, especially the West coast, US, California, I can mention this, is that, they have their own, chapter related to, um, Hui so when we look at, The building inventory.

00:43:41.704 --> 00:43:50.307
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We look at the year that this chapter went into effect, and that is specific to detailing, not just material, but also the way you build.

00:43:50.307 --> 00:44:11.934
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And, um, yes, roofing, siding, all of those features, uh, specifically focusing on fire hazard and some of that, I think, um, well, all of it is helping, uh, in terms of lowering the risk because, a parcel that follows that chapter, um, has to fulfill certain criteria.

00:44:12.646 --> 00:44:18.304
<v Wojciech>also, I also wonder how much you can expand it into the future, because we have massive changes.

00:44:18.304 --> 00:44:30.215
<v Wojciech>One in terms of, of just the climate and, you know, the, the hazards, but also you have extreme changes in the building culture, you know, photovoltaics, energy storage, electric cars.

00:44:30.215 --> 00:44:32.045
<v Wojciech>You didn't have that five, 10 years ago.

00:44:32.045 --> 00:44:34.505
<v Wojciech>So that, that's, that's really tricky, right.

00:44:34.824 --> 00:44:39.893
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>that's really tricky and I look at it, uh, I would maybe make two comments, comment number one.

00:44:39.893 --> 00:44:39.954
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um.

00:44:39.954 --> 00:44:48.927
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>As part of this uncertainty, I'm not an expert on climate models, but I work with atmospheric scientists.

00:44:48.927 --> 00:44:51.896
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>There are a lot of uncertainties in those models.

00:44:51.896 --> 00:44:52.376
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I get it.

00:44:52.376 --> 00:44:56.101
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But it's probably better than, not doing anything.

00:44:56.101 --> 00:45:01.050
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So we can incorporate some of those future predictions.

00:45:01.050 --> 00:45:02.581
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, well, yeah.

00:45:02.581 --> 00:45:06.300
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Future predictions in terms of potential change in.

00:45:06.300 --> 00:45:12.201
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>temperature, humidity, uh, wind, all of that for projections.

00:45:12.201 --> 00:45:20.141
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>so rather than only using historical data, I think that may not be the proper approach for this risk assessment for future.

00:45:20.141 --> 00:45:25.900
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So if you just look at historical approach, you may actually find a community is not even vulnerable to a fire.

00:45:25.900 --> 00:45:34.369
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Whereas given the fact that, better systems are changing, climate is changing, that community's now in a, fire danger zone.

00:45:34.369 --> 00:45:39.974
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So, uh, bringing some of those models for future protect projections, that might be helpful.

00:45:39.974 --> 00:45:50.173
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>then the other thing I'll mention, I know we have been thinking about, uh, oui fires and now you mentioned how we are building and, cars, everything.

00:45:50.173 --> 00:46:14.769
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>we are looking at an external fire, like let's say you actually have, uh, so coming out of the, house, like basically timber frame type structures, even our steel and concrete structures, let's say your critical facilities, that's another thing in earthquake engineering, when they do inventories and they look at response.

00:46:14.769 --> 00:46:17.469
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>One thing is your residential inventory.

00:46:17.469 --> 00:46:22.306
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>The other thing is the critical infrastructure and structures inside your community.

00:46:22.306 --> 00:46:25.161
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Those could be hospitals, your schools.

00:46:25.161 --> 00:46:33.751
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>so on the fire side, you, you have, if you go back to campfire, we see, um, schools and hospitals burned down.

00:46:33.751 --> 00:46:35.998
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>These are not timber frame structures.

00:46:35.998 --> 00:46:39.061
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But the fire came from outside.

00:46:39.061 --> 00:46:47.461
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>It's not a typical also, structure fire problem where the fire starts inside, it's a compartment fire, and then it grows.

00:46:47.461 --> 00:46:48.541
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>It's coming from outside.

00:46:48.541 --> 00:46:53.161
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So I think that's another place where we need to look at.

00:46:53.161 --> 00:46:58.989
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>and tie back this maybe performance based design or the, the type of archetypes we're looking at.

00:46:58.989 --> 00:47:24.061
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, you've got these type of structures that could be, uh, exposed to external fires and those external fires, depending on the community, the EV cars, like what's happening around there, if the fire happens, what kind of exposure you are going to get for these, critical infrastructure that you have to save, because your community is relying on it.

00:47:24.387 --> 00:47:25.947
<v Justin Moresco>And, and just building off of that.

00:47:25.947 --> 00:47:36.976
<v Justin Moresco>So o over in the earthquake world, um, we disti, as Nagar said, we distinguish between more common types of buildings and in these essential facilities.

00:47:36.976 --> 00:47:46.673
<v Justin Moresco>And, um, those essential facilities have to be built to a much higher, standard, a lower probability of failure.

00:47:46.673 --> 00:47:52.344
<v Justin Moresco>Um, and, and maybe there's already parallels, uh, for, forgive me, um, in, in fire signs if, if there is.

00:47:52.344 --> 00:47:55.344
<v Justin Moresco>Um, but you could imagine one, once we.

00:47:55.344 --> 00:48:01.239
<v Justin Moresco>Hopefully start getting a better understanding of expected future performance.

00:48:01.239 --> 00:48:09.619
<v Justin Moresco>we could start ratcheting up the requirements around these essential facilities for resisting wy fires.

00:48:09.619 --> 00:48:11.239
<v Justin Moresco>I think, I think that's where you're going to guard.

00:48:11.239 --> 00:48:14.119
<v Justin Moresco>I just wanted to put it in, in my, my own terms.

00:48:14.119 --> 00:48:14.693
<v Justin Moresco>Yeah.

00:48:14.889 --> 00:48:21.188
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We don't necessarily have any specific methodologies to design these essential facilities for.

00:48:21.188 --> 00:48:23.588
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>It is probably case by case right now,

00:48:23.869 --> 00:48:27.320
<v Wojciech>What's the practicality of this clustering or those archetypes?

00:48:27.320 --> 00:48:30.949
<v Wojciech>It allows you to, to reduce the complexity of your analysis.

00:48:30.949 --> 00:48:38.420
<v Wojciech>Like you're basically now looking on broader behavior within the clusters rather than individual structures.

00:48:38.420 --> 00:48:39.650
<v Wojciech>So where does this lead?

00:48:39.911 --> 00:48:52.181
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>uh, let's say you are eaten fire Altadena, um, damaged something along, along the lines of, um, 10,000, structures in Altadena area.

00:48:52.181 --> 00:48:57.878
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So let's say we wanna look at, performance of that, that community to fire.

00:48:57.878 --> 00:49:01.202
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, right now we need to run explicitly the fire spread.

00:49:01.202 --> 00:49:06.338
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And let's say we wanna do a probabilistic assessment.

00:49:06.338 --> 00:49:18.773
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So it means that we, even if we just sell for thousands of simulations, not tens of thousands, just thousands of simulations, we are looking at a lot of computational cost, right?

00:49:18.773 --> 00:49:21.983
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>From the re I know this is more from the research perspective.

00:49:21.983 --> 00:49:26.092
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I think Justin, you can tie it into the industry side of things.

00:49:26.092 --> 00:49:29.572
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But from the research perspective, yes, we can do that.

00:49:29.572 --> 00:49:32.873
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But, um, that's perhaps something that only researchers can do.

00:49:32.873 --> 00:49:46.373
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, we need something more streamlined, or not streamlined, but more efficient, uh, in terms of computational costs to be able to get the response without running individual, single simulations thousands of times.

00:49:46.373 --> 00:49:54.922
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And those clusterings and archetypes, uh, and tying them into fragilities will very quickly give you.

00:49:54.922 --> 00:50:02.213
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, but I then I say very quickly compared to the individual simulations, relative, um, the outcome.

00:50:02.663 --> 00:50:18.181
<v Justin Moresco>Yeah, I would just, I think it, I mean, that's a great question because it, I think with these things, because this, these risk-based frameworks and the kind of numerical simulations we're talking about, because they can get so complex it, you want to keep in mind what, what is the intended use, right?

00:50:18.181 --> 00:50:22.351
<v Justin Moresco>And then that, that in turn influences the complexity.

00:50:22.351 --> 00:50:31.436
<v Justin Moresco>So, it, when you're doing these, like Nagar was saying, when you're doing these community scale types of analyses, you have to do these simplifications.

00:50:31.436 --> 00:50:49.572
<v Justin Moresco>And the, i, the hope is that you've built up enough experience, doing post-event reconnaissance, but also doing experimental tests and numerical tests to, to feel as though, okay, we've identified what those key parameters are to describe the expected response.

00:50:49.572 --> 00:50:51.311
<v Justin Moresco>And there's uncertainty around.

00:50:51.311 --> 00:51:11.134
<v Justin Moresco>You're placing on the response, recognizing that, yes, saying that this fragility is representing a three story wood frame building, and you're capturing the median with the distribution around that median, um, then, then that, that is giving you enough accuracy to be able to move forward on that community level analysis, right?

00:51:11.134 --> 00:51:17.347
<v Justin Moresco>it would be different if you're using this kind of analysis to do an individual building design, right?

00:51:17.347 --> 00:51:29.887
<v Justin Moresco>If you're doing an individual building design, then you want to bring in all the features that you can, uh, and make it, you know, capture everything that you think might have an impact and do the analysis, right?

00:51:29.887 --> 00:51:32.077
<v Justin Moresco>So, so it comes back to the, the use case.

00:51:32.085 --> 00:51:32.355
<v Wojciech>Hmm.

00:51:32.355 --> 00:51:33.315
<v Wojciech>Fantastic.

00:51:33.315 --> 00:51:46.574
<v Wojciech>Uh, we're running out of time, but there's one more thing I want to go back, which you mentioned off the record, Negar, which is going beyond the structures to utilities, to water services, because I, I found it very interesting.

00:51:46.574 --> 00:51:52.125
<v Wojciech>Uh, how does earthquake engineering, uh, grow beyond the structure and what we can learn from that?

00:51:52.476 --> 00:51:57.606
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So on the earthquake side, they actually can, let's say, model A, um.

00:51:57.606 --> 00:52:12.675
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Community, whole community, whole city and say, here's the building inventory, this is the transportation network, this is the power network, this is the water network, um, communication network.

00:52:12.675 --> 00:52:13.514
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Yes.

00:52:13.514 --> 00:52:15.846
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>All those layers of, infrastructure.

00:52:15.846 --> 00:52:21.460
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>they actually can also, uh, capture the dependencies.

00:52:21.460 --> 00:52:24.731
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>these, um, infrastructure.

00:52:24.731 --> 00:52:36.599
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So after an earthquake, if your water network rely on pumps and you don't have backup power at a pumping station and the power is damaged, maybe your water network is not damaged.

00:52:36.599 --> 00:52:46.170
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But if you rely on the power and the power goes out, actually your water network gets impacted because the pressure goes down, um, because of the pump.

00:52:46.170 --> 00:52:59.452
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So there are all these, they call it interdependencies because there's sometimes so dependencies just between two layers, but interdependencies, um, there could be, um, feedback from the same, uh, infrastructure layer back to, another one.

00:52:59.452 --> 00:53:15.929
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So model all of these, um, they do similar, very similar They have the fragility functions, they apply the damage, and then at the end of the day, the idea is that as a structural engineer, we can.

00:53:15.929 --> 00:53:24.688
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Build structures remain, standing and safe to be occupied after an earthquake.

00:53:24.688 --> 00:53:37.768
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But if inside the community you don't have power and you don't have water and you don't have gas, people can't really go back inside their buildings and live there because you don't have the lifelines working.

00:53:37.768 --> 00:53:42.418
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>for the community to remain functional, you need all these layers to be functional.

00:53:42.608 --> 00:53:57.003
<v Wojciech>sorry, which is actually very interesting in the context of what we just spoken about 10 minutes ago with the know changes in, in, in how the buildings look like, because if you have your own battery pack, you are perhaps less, uh, vulnerable to the power outage.

00:53:57.003 --> 00:54:01.833
<v Wojciech>If you have, uh, a Starling network connection, you are most likely gonna have communications.

00:54:01.833 --> 00:54:02.132
<v Wojciech>Right?

00:54:02.132 --> 00:54:07.083
<v Wojciech>So it go, it's, it's not the world, the world is not just worsening.

00:54:07.083 --> 00:54:09.632
<v Wojciech>There are positive things happening around.

00:54:11.391 --> 00:54:12.442
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Look at the positives.

00:54:12.442 --> 00:54:12.717
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Exactly.

00:54:13.353 --> 00:54:16.532
<v Wojciech>It took me, it took us 55 minutes to find a positive yes

00:54:17.706 --> 00:54:19.327
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>like reducing dependencies

00:54:19.668 --> 00:54:20.248
<v Wojciech>no, but this.

00:54:21.487 --> 00:54:22.327
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Yeah, exactly.

00:54:22.382 --> 00:54:30.722
<v Wojciech>Well, you know, I, I love when you're speaking about those, those dependencies to me they are like absolutely obvious.

00:54:30.722 --> 00:54:31.503
<v Wojciech>And you know why?

00:54:31.503 --> 00:54:37.023
<v Wojciech>Because 30 years ago I played hours and hours in Sim City, 2000.

00:54:37.023 --> 00:54:48.632
<v Wojciech>And it, it is in that game, if you had an earthquake and it broke your electricity line, your pump went down and now your community's in sewage and you had to fix it all one by one.

00:54:48.632 --> 00:54:56.695
<v Wojciech>Like, I, I said it before when there are mayor elections for a city, like, show me your best sim city, you know, games you achieved.

00:54:56.695 --> 00:55:00.655
<v Wojciech>And then based on that, I'll pick up who's gonna be the mayor of war or something.

00:55:00.655 --> 00:55:09.594
<v Wojciech>But no, actually those types of, of interactions, I, I think there are critical, because as you said, you may have a very well functioning, uh.

00:55:09.594 --> 00:55:11.110
<v Wojciech>House, sorry.

00:55:11.110 --> 00:55:19.869
<v Wojciech>You may have structurally sound building after a wildfire, but if you don't have electricity, water, sewage, or anything else, it's not a great help.

00:55:19.869 --> 00:55:20.199
<v Wojciech>Right?

00:55:20.447 --> 00:55:21.347
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Exactly.

00:55:21.347 --> 00:55:31.806
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>And I think in the we side, our water network is really not designed for attacking or suppressing a, an intense fire line.

00:55:32.192 --> 00:55:32.762
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:55:32.766 --> 00:55:38.226
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>designed for individual structural fires and a couple of structural fires across neighborhood.

00:55:38.226 --> 00:55:40.626
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Neighborhood, but not a whole block on fire.

00:55:40.626 --> 00:55:44.675
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>We can't really suppress because it's not designed for those conditions.

00:55:44.675 --> 00:55:50.394
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>so once we, I think on the buoy side again, so on the earthquake they can model these.

00:55:50.394 --> 00:55:55.097
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>uh, the question I will mention this, that, that there's always a question that, um.

00:55:55.097 --> 00:55:57.541
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Where's the data to validate this?

00:55:57.541 --> 00:56:07.235
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Some of it there, there have been validated because, you know, earthquake side, they do collect very good data, after earthquakes and try to go back to the models and see how they're doing.

00:56:07.235 --> 00:56:16.780
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Some of it perhaps is less, validated verify, but, but to the extent they, they've been able to validate these, community level models, they've done it.

00:56:16.780 --> 00:56:25.610
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Now on the UI side, number one, I think we, we need to start, uh, integrating this different infrastructure within the whole holistic approach.

00:56:25.610 --> 00:56:29.721
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Uh, we have been, again, doing research, um, because it was needed.

00:56:29.721 --> 00:56:34.311
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>You have to start from, you can't start at times zero integrating everything.

00:56:34.311 --> 00:56:35.271
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>That's not the right thing to do.

00:56:35.271 --> 00:56:44.420
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But once we advance and each infrastructure modeling and answering some of the questions, then we can start integrating them.

00:56:44.420 --> 00:57:04.932
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>To look at the problem or the community response more holistically and then look at, okay, so if we do some structure hardening, but we also think about our backup water system, because if we don't do any structure hardening, probably with an extreme fire, our water system is, will not have the flow and pressure needed.

00:57:04.932 --> 00:57:11.702
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>But if we lower the rate of fire spread and potentially, improve our water system, then there might be a solution there, right?

00:57:11.702 --> 00:57:18.530
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, transportation evacuation, making sure that emergency response, teams can get to the location of the fire.

00:57:18.530 --> 00:57:35.061
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>All of those things, once we start integrating them, um, then we can tweak, or mitigate, at different levels, which potentially as a whole, then we reduce the overall losses.

00:57:35.061 --> 00:57:35.855
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Justin.

00:57:36.228 --> 00:57:44.643
<v Justin Moresco>Well, I, it's, it's a slightly different thought, but just, it, it's maybe just to, that I, I, I want to, I don't wanna lose sight of that.

00:57:44.643 --> 00:57:49.952
<v Justin Moresco>We, we've been talking about some pretty sophisticated concepts.

00:57:49.952 --> 00:57:50.163
<v Justin Moresco>Right.

00:57:50.163 --> 00:57:50.523
<v Justin Moresco>And,

00:57:50.530 --> 00:57:50.590
<v Wojciech>Yeah.

00:57:50.943 --> 00:57:59.465
<v Justin Moresco>and, and, and again, you know, we, one of the, the main points of discussion today has been looking at what earthquakes have done, uh, the, the field of earthquake engineering.

00:57:59.465 --> 00:58:12.186
<v Justin Moresco>And I, I just want to emphasize that I don't think we have to go all the way to the fully probabilistic, most sophisticated models and understanding to get benefits.

00:58:12.186 --> 00:58:14.900
<v Justin Moresco>From thinking about that risk framework.

00:58:14.900 --> 00:58:22.418
<v Justin Moresco>I think that just when I'm attending conferences or reading papers, I do see confusion out there.

00:58:22.418 --> 00:58:29.588
<v Justin Moresco>It seems in not always, but often in the way people are talking about these different components of risk.

00:58:29.588 --> 00:58:56.483
<v Justin Moresco>And so I think even just as a first step for people to start, um, if they're not already familiar, educating themselves on how other hazards have defined risk in these components that we've been talking about, and then trying to be as precise as they can in their, um, in their discussions and then in their, when they're developing their programs, to use these terms as accurately as they can.

00:58:56.483 --> 00:59:04.764
<v Justin Moresco>And hopefully we as a community can start building consensus around the way these terms are used and that that will help us to, to move forward.

00:59:04.764 --> 00:59:05.213
<v Justin Moresco>I think.

00:59:05.956 --> 00:59:12.240
<v Wojciech>I'm, I'm gonna take the, the, the, the out, out of what we've been discussing, but I have a down to earth question.

00:59:12.240 --> 00:59:16.081
<v Wojciech>Does earthquake engineering deal with post earthquake fires as well?

00:59:16.081 --> 00:59:19.797
<v Wojciech>Is it a part of earthquake engineering or, thank you.

00:59:21.755 --> 00:59:23.434
<v Justin Moresco>We shoulda said that, said that from the.

00:59:23.726 --> 00:59:23.907
<v Wojciech>What?

00:59:23.907 --> 00:59:23.996
<v Wojciech>But

00:59:24.170 --> 00:59:30.851
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I did wanna say at some point I thought about it, but I said, earthquakes are bu I'm not gonna bring in the fires following earthquake.

00:59:31.012 --> 00:59:31.373
<v Wojciech>yeah.

00:59:31.512 --> 00:59:34.722
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Um, it's, um, it falls under earthquakes.

00:59:34.722 --> 00:59:53.021
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>I would, I mean, it's between fires and earthquakes, but for me, very briefly, I would say that the difference, uh, between fire following earthquake versus wwe, there we are again dealing with individual ignitions across the community versus for wwe we have a full fire line

00:59:53.257 --> 00:59:53.478
<v Wojciech>Mm

00:59:54.731 --> 00:59:56.112
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So that's the primary difference.

00:59:56.112 --> 01:00:03.222
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>The other difference is that after an earthquake, you get fires, but you already have a system that is damaged.

01:00:03.222 --> 01:00:03.461
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So

01:00:03.617 --> 01:00:03.838
<v Wojciech>mm.

01:00:03.942 --> 01:00:09.342
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>structures, your life, your fire safety measures, your sprinklers Inside this, the.

01:00:09.342 --> 01:00:10.512
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>The building.

01:00:10.512 --> 01:00:12.192
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So these are typically internal fires.

01:00:12.192 --> 01:00:14.291
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>Your supreme clears are probably damaged.

01:00:14.291 --> 01:00:24.304
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So the, the fire department may not reach to the location of ignition in time because they're already, dealing with the chaos.

01:00:24.304 --> 01:00:37.503
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>and on the Wooey side, uh, we have an intact water system, but again, your water system may not necessarily be designed to have to, um, suppress that, um, intense, uh, fire line.

01:00:37.503 --> 01:00:46.923
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>So there are differences, uh, between the two, although they both are considered as far as inside the built environment.

01:00:46.923 --> 01:00:48.574
<v Negar Elhami-Khorasani>That's how I would categorize them.

01:00:49.137 --> 01:00:52.197
<v Wojciech>So on this optimistic accent, I think we can wrap it up.

01:00:52.197 --> 01:01:00.418
<v Wojciech>So, so thank you very much for, for coming, uh, to the world of fire engineers and talking about experiences of earthquake engineers.

01:01:00.418 --> 01:01:03.628
<v Wojciech>I'm really happy that we can, uh, learn, uh, from each other.

01:01:04.074 --> 01:01:04.864
<v Justin Moresco>Thank you so much.

01:01:04.864 --> 01:01:06.793
<v Justin Moresco>And I said, thank you for listening.

01:01:06.793 --> 01:01:14.623
<v Justin Moresco>Now the next thing I need is worked out examples to see how this, uh, methodology works in practice.

01:01:14.623 --> 01:01:23.382
<v Justin Moresco>In the show notes, you can find some papers linked and you can find the previous episodes of the podcast I've mentioned, uh, which help us work out.

01:01:23.382 --> 01:01:25.992
<v Justin Moresco>Uh, this is not the only framework that we have been discussing.

01:01:25.992 --> 01:01:30.137
<v Justin Moresco>In the Fire Science show, we also had Pascal Vaca some episodes ago.

01:01:30.137 --> 01:01:35.903
<v Justin Moresco>She talked about her approach, uh, that she applied in Catalonia to some wildfire communities.

01:01:35.903 --> 01:01:44.507
<v Justin Moresco>It's very nice that those things are peeled up and we get more and more tools that are useful in planning, resilience of communities planning.

01:01:44.507 --> 01:01:49.336
<v Justin Moresco>Preparedness of communities for potential wildfires.

01:01:49.336 --> 01:01:56.364
<v Justin Moresco>I liked the aspect that Justin brought up about testing for previous disastrous fires.

01:01:56.364 --> 01:02:04.130
<v Justin Moresco>This is very interesting where you can apply just a, a fire as a boundary condition, something that happened in the past.

01:02:04.130 --> 01:02:04.735
<v Justin Moresco>Now.

01:02:04.735 --> 01:02:09.896
<v Justin Moresco>Difficulty will be obviously that what is built influences that fire.

01:02:09.896 --> 01:02:16.496
<v Justin Moresco>So if, if you have rebuilt in a different way that it was built, uh, previously, then the outcomes will be different.

01:02:16.496 --> 01:02:25.385
<v Justin Moresco>But still, you could get a lot by simplifying the, this growth or just having a range of possible fires and just see what happens.

01:02:25.385 --> 01:02:32.628
<v Justin Moresco>That's a very, very powerful, way of looking at the problem and something I feel is quite possible for five safety engineers.

01:02:32.628 --> 01:02:34.458
<v Justin Moresco>I always say that.

01:02:34.458 --> 01:02:45.528
<v Justin Moresco>There is a job coming wildfire engineer, where we will be hired to do these things for communities and hopefully paid quite generosity for our good work.

01:02:45.528 --> 01:02:53.981
<v Justin Moresco>And, uh, I think, uh, yeah, approaches like that are, are one of the ways that, that we can help support those, uh, communities at risk.

01:02:53.981 --> 01:02:54.701
<v Justin Moresco>Um.

01:02:54.701 --> 01:02:58.121
<v Justin Moresco>I think that would be it for today's podcast episode.

01:02:58.121 --> 01:02:59.710
<v Justin Moresco>There was a lot of new stuff.

01:02:59.710 --> 01:03:01.438
<v Justin Moresco>I hope you've enjoyed a lot.

01:03:01.438 --> 01:03:02.489
<v Justin Moresco>It was quite new for me.

01:03:02.489 --> 01:03:05.693
<v Justin Moresco>I had never known the details of how earthquake engineering works.

01:03:05.693 --> 01:03:07.914
<v Justin Moresco>And frankly speaking, I like it a lot.

01:03:07.914 --> 01:03:16.043
<v Justin Moresco>A lot of those other engineering, uh, disciplines have such nice methods and, and some of them are so much transferable to fire science.

01:03:16.043 --> 01:03:17.693
<v Justin Moresco>We need to do more of that.

01:03:17.693 --> 01:03:23.634
<v Justin Moresco>So, uh, for this, uh, important effort, I am highly thankful to Justin, highly thankful to Nagar.

01:03:23.634 --> 01:03:25.733
<v Justin Moresco>And, uh, for you listener.

01:03:25.733 --> 01:03:27.797
<v Justin Moresco>I'm thankful for being here with me today.

01:03:27.797 --> 01:03:28.617
<v Justin Moresco>I hope you've enjoyed your.

01:03:28.617 --> 01:03:32.447
<v Justin Moresco>Weekly dose of fire science, and if you will be looking for more.

01:03:32.447 --> 01:03:34.757
<v Justin Moresco>Another episode is coming your way next Wednesday.

01:03:34.757 --> 01:03:35.597
<v Justin Moresco>See you there.

01:03:35.597 --> 01:03:36.077
<v Justin Moresco>Thank you.

01:03:36.077 --> 01:03:36.527
<v Justin Moresco>Bye.