1055: 15 Transactions for Week 12

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha j J zacher reefon.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode ten fifty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in, hey.

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Speaker 1: Before I get to the transactions this week, I just want to remind you you can get this transaction list and directly to your email inbox every single week. This show comes from the newsletter that I send out on Tuesday mornings. So if you want to reference something, or if you want any of the other content that's sent out via that newsletter, make sure you head to Lateround dot com right now and sign up for free. It takes two seconds and it really is a big help to the Late Round Fantasy Football business that's Lateround dot com. Now let's get to this week's transactions. Add Emmanuel Wilson. So Josh Jacob suffered a knee injury in Week eleven. He's likely going to miss a little bit of time, although fortunately it seems like that injury it's not a long term one. But if Jacobs is out, Emmanuel Wilson is the running back that you won from this Packers backfield. After Josh Jacobs left that game against the Giants. In Week eleven, Emmanuel Wilson had every single running back rush for the Packers. He out snapped teammate Chris Brooks thirty nine to five according to PFF. Now, Brooks is likely going to be in the mix more without Josh Jacobs, but we could see some really nice production from Wilson as long as Jacobs's sidelined. Just do be aware that the Packers get the Vikings lines and Broncos in three of their next four games, depending on how long Josh Jacobs is out. Though again it sounds like it's more day to day rather than week to week, but that gives them one of the tougher running back schedules over the next month or so. By brock Purty, So if you listen to last week's mail back episode, then this transaction isn't going to come as a surprise. Brock Purty returned to action in Week eleven, and he looked like his typical self. The forty nine Ers offense looked great against the Cardinals, and party had nineteen point three standard Fantasy points. Now, I'm not sure that we'd consider this like a by high moment, but you're gonna want a piece of this forty nine ers passing attack for the fantasy playoffs, whether it's a quarterback, a wide receiver, or George Kittle. In Week fifteen, they get the Titans in San Francisco, Tennessee. Largely due to volume, they've been a completely average opponent for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed.

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Speaker 2: But you know the forty nine Ers, they're gonna have a high implied team total.

00:02:30
Speaker 1: That week after that, San Francisco is gonna face the Colts in Indianapolis.

00:02:36
Speaker 2: They get a Dome game.

00:02:38
Speaker 1: The Colts are a top half matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed this year. And then in the final week of the fantasy season, Fantasy Championship Week, they get Chicago, and that's in San Francisco. Chicago's the third best matchup for quarterbacks right now by justin fantasy points allowed.

00:02:55
Speaker 2: None of those.

00:02:55
Speaker 1: Opponents should scare us off of this passing attack, especially because two of those three games are gonna be in the Bay Area. So this transaction really could have just been for the passing attack in general. But if you want to capture that passing attack, obviously you're gonna go with the quarterback, and that quarterback is Brock Purdy. At bay Shall Tuton, we saw a career day from Bashall Tuton in week eleven, even with that unfortunate ankle injury. He carried the ball fifteen times for seventy four yards in a touchdown against the Chargers.

00:03:26
Speaker 2: Now Travis Etn.

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Speaker 1: If you look at that box score, he did have more carries than Tuton, but that largely happened because of Tuton's late.

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Speaker 2: Game ankle injury.

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Speaker 1: Prior to that injury, Tuten was actually out attempting Etn fifteen to twelve, and it doesn't sound like that injury is a serious one for Tuton, So we could see more of this split rest of season in that Jacksonville backfield. Not only did Tuton look really good in the zap model, but he now could have flex appeal with injury related upside. Before he was just a handcuff. But if he's gonna get this kind of work, he might make it into your flex and that kind of player it's perfect to have rostered this time of year.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: Ad Michael Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Look, I know that I had Michael Wilson on last week's Sleeper Show as did most fantasy analysts. It was clear he was going to get more opportunity with Marvin Harrison Junior sideline with appendicitis, but never in a million years did I expect this, this kind of performance that was ridiculous. He absolutely torched the forty nine ers, at least statistically. He finished the day with eighteen targets, fifteen receptions, and one hundred and eighty five yards. And for the record, Marvin Harrison Junior, He's never had more than seven receptions in the game throughout his NFL career, albeit his brief NFL career. Now context is obviously needed here. Jacoby Brissett threw the ball fifty seven times against the forty nine Ers. He'd average about thirty nine pass attempts per game prior to Week eleven, or at least per start. He also completed forty seven of those passes, which was an NFL record that's not gonna continue. But this is exactly why we look at peripherals. Michael Wilson had a really solid thirty two percent target share, and if Marvin Harrison Junior is out to get in Week twelve, which is very possible, then we're looking at Wilson as a very reasonable starter against Jacksonville, and who knows, maybe this performance will lead to more work down the stretch.

00:05:27
Speaker 2: Sell Josh Allen.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen went absolutely nuts against the Buccaneers on Sunday. He not only threw for three hundred and seventeen yards and three touchdowns, but he ran six times for forty yards and three more scorers on the ground. Allen has the highest ceiling in fantasy football, period and because of that, if you're feeling okay about your Allen led team, I don't think this transaction is a necessary one to make. But if you need to introduce a little bit more variance in your team, that might be a different story. There's a very real chance that this is the most Fantasy points that Allen's gonna score this season. It's gonna be hard to top forty three standard points. So from that perspective, you'd be trading him away at a high point. But the crux of this recommendation it stems from the fact that the Bills are going to face the Browns in Cleveland in Week sixteen and then the Eagles in Buffalo in Week seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Those are two bottom five matchups.

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Speaker 1: Or quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed quarterbacks against the Browns, they're scoring about three and a half points below their season long average. With the Eagles, it's about three point one points. We just saw what Cleveland did to Lamar Jackson. In Philadelphia's defense, they're playing lights out right now. You should only trade away Josh Allen this kind of fantasy. As said, if you can truly truly sell high, but for teams winn into cash in now for a playoff push, at least know that it might not be butterflies and rainbows for Josh Allen during the most important weeks of the fantasy football season.

00:06:55
Speaker 2: Add Chris Rodriguez.

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Speaker 1: So I talked about Chris Rodriguez in the Sleeper Show because in that Lions game in Week ten, he was very clearly playing ahead at Jacory Krossky Merrit. He just suffered a shoulder injury, but he was back in healthy in Week eleven, and in that game he had thirty offensive snaps. Jacorey Krossky Marriott was at eighteen. Rodriguez had a fifty three point six percent running back rush share. He even saw a target that was his first target of the entire season. Now, Look, I'll be honest with you guys. The odds at Rodriguez is like a league winner this year pretty slim. But Washington does have an ok rest of season schedule for running backs, especially in the fantasy playoffs, where they get the Giants in Week fifteen and then the Cowboys in Week seventeen. Those are two of the best matchups you're gonna find across the league. There's a chance for some usability there. Just be aware of the Commanders. They do have a bye here in week twelve, so you won't be able to use Chris Rodriguez right away by Lamar Jackson, so you guys might be having a little deja vu. I had Lamar Jasjackson as a bye last week, and he completely s the b against the Browns. He posts his lowest fantasy total of his entire career in a game where he had at least twenty pass attempts. Now, in my defense, I did talk about this matchup as being a not great one.

00:08:16
Speaker 2: In my write up.

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Speaker 1: I said, quote, a matchup against Cleveland this week isn't great, So you could always wait on this transaction.

00:08:23
Speaker 2: So hopefully fingers crossed you waited. Now.

00:08:26
Speaker 1: I typically don't double down like this, but with such a bad performance, Jackson becomes an actual BI Low candidate and moving forward, according to my numbers, no team has a better quarterback schedule than the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens get the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, the Bengals again, Patriots, and Packers to close out the fantasy season.

00:08:46
Speaker 2: As I said last week.

00:08:47
Speaker 1: The only team among that group that kind of scares me for Lamar Jackson is probably Pittsburgh and that's just because they've played him well historically. And Green Bay's a bottom half matchup two. But that's a really good schedule, and we're talking thing about Lamar Jackson. I don't want to overreact to what happened in Week eleven. He faced a good Browns defense. They were at home where they play a little bit better, and it's a division rival. He should be much better rest of season, add Luth Burden, so full disclosure. I try to not repeat transactions week over week. I know I just did it with Lamar Jackson and now I'm doing it with Luther Burden. But when I do it, I try to do it with players where there might be questions like should you still be buying Lamar Jackson, Should you still be adding Luthor Burden? For example, I'm not going to talk about Sean Tucker today because I talked about Sean Tucker last week and Tucker went absolutely nuts against the Bills. At this point, you know to add him off the waiver wire. But what about someone like Luther Burden? And clearly my answer is yes, Burden may not have had unbelievable production in Week eleven, but his peripherals were the best of his season. Burdon had a sixty one percent participation rate, which was a season high, and he ran twenty two routes to Alamide Zikias's seven. Burden had an eighteen percent target chair, which is also a season high.

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Speaker 2: As you guys know by now, he was a Zap Model.

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Speaker 1: Darling the Zap Model loved Luther Burden, and he's looked the part so far as a rookie. In fact, no one on Chicago right now is really close to him. And yards per rout run according to PFF, he has a two point thirty nine yards per rout run rate, which is awesome. So I'll say it again, even if this doesn't work out in twenty twenty five. This is the exact type of player that you want stashed this time of year, and now that he's getting more playing time, now it's even more obvious.

00:10:43
Speaker 2: Ad Jaden Higgins.

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Speaker 1: Entering the season, I did not think that Xavier Hutchinson was gonna be the reason that Jayden Higgins didn't have production in twenty twenty five. But here we are in week eleven, for just the second time this season, Jaden Higgins had more routes run than Xavier Hutchinson, and it was three more routes run. That was the largest margin that we've seen between those two players. Which, yes, if you're listening to that and you're hearing that, yes, it is wild. It is insane. I don't know why this isn't happening more frequently. Hutchinson's yards per route run rate right now is below one yard. It's point three yards below Higgins. Higgins being a rookie, and you'd think the Texans would want to get their rookies some more run. This includes Jalen Knowle. They've quite literally been better than the veterans that are ahead of them on the depth chart. But regardless with this small change, I think Higgins should be more on your radar. The Texans don't have like a special rest of season schedule, but with better target chairs of late, including an eighteen percent one in Week eleven, Higgins might be usable. We know that some rookies are going to break out down the stretch. Don't lose sight of that as you add guys off the waiver wire. By Jared Goff, We're talking about a lot of quarterbacks this week, which isn't typical for fifteen transactions. But Jared Goff is coming off a really bad performance against the Eagles. He only scored twelve fantasy points and his completion percentage over expected according to Next Gen Stats was minus twenty five point four percent. That was the lowest completion percentage over expected among all qualified quarterbacks this year in a single game. Now, GoF hasn't been the same type of fantasy asset that he was last year. This year, he's averaging seventeen point four points per game. Last year he was at nineteen point one, and that's standard fantasy points. But I'm calling him out today because of something I talked about in the ten Trends episode just a couple of weeks ago. Moving forward, the Lions don't have a single game outdoors through the end of the fantasy season. In Week twelve, they get the Giants in Detroit. Then it's the Packers and the Cowboys, both also in Detroit. Then they get the Rams they're going to be in LA, the Steelers are back in Detroit, and then the Vikings in Minnesota. All of those games are under roof. That gives the Lions a much better scoring environment. And on top of that, according to my numbers, Detroit is a top ten schedule for quarterbacks rest of season. Even if those games weren't in ideal conditions, they'd still be against beatable opponents. Now, I don't know if Jared Goff is going to light the world on fire down the stretch, but for quarterback needy teams, he's not a bad target right now. Add Darnell Mooney. Look, guys, I know no one wants to hear this. I have a very specific person in the Spotify comments section who definitely doesn't want to hear this. But with Drake London's sideline with his PCL injury, Darnell Mooney does become a waiver wire target. You don't need to like spend the rest of your budget on him, but he is a target. And I know the last time the Falcons play without London, Moody didn't do a thing. The offense was horrible, and that was with Kirk Cousins, who's going to be starting moving forward because Michael Pennox is hurt too.

00:13:58
Speaker 2: But crazy things can happen.

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Speaker 1: One game sample and Mooney has now seen target sharers of thirty two percent twenty four percent over his last two games. But look, I'm not gonna sell this any further. Mooney has not been good this year. He's failed to reach double digit PPR points in every single game that he's played, but he's worth an end of bench stash because he's Atlanta's top wide receiver right now.

00:14:23
Speaker 2: Add Kenneth Gainwell.

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Speaker 1: We've seen Kenneth Gainwell get to a twenty percent target share or better three times this year. One of them was in a game where Jalen Warren missed back in Week four against the Vikings, then the Steelers had to buy and then they played Cleveland in Week six. Jalen Warren in that game didn't see his typical workload and that led to a twenty point seven percent target share for Kenneth Gainwell. And then on Sunday, Gainwell stepped in for an injured Warren and saw a near twenty eight percent target share. Now, Jalen Warren claims that he could have gone back into that game against the Bengals in Week eleven after he had that ankle injury, but players say that kind of thing all the time. He's not necessarily a lock to play in Week twelve, and they get the Bears, which is a good matchup by justin fantasy points allowed. At the very least, there's a chance for more of a split backfield similar to what we saw out of their Week five by so that could make gain Well usable in deeper formats by RJ.

00:15:24
Speaker 2: Harvey. Now, some of you might be disappointed by RJ. Harvey's first outing without JK.

00:15:30
Speaker 1: Dobbins, and while I do get that, I was actually kind of encouraged. According to PFF, Harvey had thirty eight offensive snaps against the Chiefs.

00:15:39
Speaker 2: Jalil McLoughlin and Tyler Bidet they each had eight. So RJ.

00:15:44
Speaker 1: Harvey played by far the most snaps in that backfield, and that led to a sixty five percent running back rush share and a nine percent target share, which really wasn't that far from my projection that I talked about on last week's Mailbag episode. I mean I could sit here and argue that that backfield share in his usage it was better than I even expected. Now, whether Harvey can take advantage of that work remains to be seen, but we can't deny that Week eleven's matchup against the Chiefs that was a tough matchup. They rank as a bottom five matchup for running backs this year. Denver's schedule. Admittedly it's not amazing rest of season. Remember I talked about that with JK. Dobbins on this show just a few weeks ago. But with more reps as a rookie, better days should be ahead for RJ.

00:16:26
Speaker 2: Harvey.

00:16:26
Speaker 1: If you can truly buy low, it's probably not a bad idea because the usage looked a lot.

00:16:31
Speaker 2: Better than eight PPR points.

00:16:36
Speaker 1: Add Darren Waller, So if you want to be a week ahead of your league mates, you could add Darren Wallder this week while Miami's on a bye, no one's going to be thinking about him, but there's a chance that he returns post by and that's not nothing because he did flash upside before he got hurt. He scored seventeen point seven eighteen point eight to nine point two pper points in his three full game games pre injury.

00:17:01
Speaker 2: Another thing to point out.

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Speaker 1: Is that the Dolphins get the Steelers and the Bengals to open up the fantasy playoffs. Pittsburgh's a third best matchup for tight ends this year by justin points allowed in Cincinnati, as we know by now, they're the best matchup. We could get some OK performances from Darren Waller when things matter most, and he should be back before that Week fifteen matchup, and that would let us know if we can be confident or not starting him. Add the Las Vegas Raiders defense. So this is being analyzed prior to Monday Night Football. But the Raiders are at home in Week twelve and they take on the Browns. At this moment, at the time of this recording, I don't know who's going to start a quarterback for Cleveland, but I don't think it really matters. It's a great spot for the Raiders. They're three and a half point favorites in a game with a thirty seven and a half point total, and Cleveland they're the top opponent for defenses by justin Fantasy points allowed, defenses against the Browns, they've ranked in the top eight and weekly scoring in each of their last three.

00:18:04
Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening.

00:18:06
Speaker 1: If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

00:18:17
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Everyone greatly appreciate it.

00:18:19
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.