Previewing the 2022 PGA Tour Season with Joseph LaMagna

00:00:00
Speaker 1: I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset. When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset.

00:00:05
Speaker 2: And when I find my ball in a fried egg.

00:00:07
Speaker 3: Friday Egg, the dreaded Frida Egg, Frida Egg, Frida, Frida egg bride egg Lie.

00:00:11
Speaker 1: I'm about ready to run off of the.

00:00:31
Speaker 2: Welcome back to another episode of the Fridaygg podcast and happy New Year. We got a new year upon us. Today's episode is brought to you by the Friday Egg. We launched our events calendar the first tranch of events yesterday, so two of them sold out and we still have a few spots remaining for the Boomerang at Seoul Park, and we are also doing a lottery for the Coup de Gras at the Dunes Club with opportunity to play law students the day before as well. So those you can find all the information on our website if you navigate the website to the events tab, and we will have some more of our events going on sale at the beginning of February, so get involved. They are really fun one day events and thank you for those that are coming who have come to him. It's a great way to meet fellow golf nuts and thanks for the support. So without further ado, let's get our guest Joseph Lamania, who's an up and coming voice in the golf space. He writes a wonderful newsletter called Finding the Edge on Substack that I read every week. Nice that he focuses mostly on golf, but he also covers some other sports, you know, general sports topics. It's a really really delightful read that comes out once a week. As well as he has a business that helps PGA tour players and you know Corn Ferry Tour players with the golf course strategy. So Joseph came on to preview the twenty twenty two year of golf. We talk a wide range of topics, go down a lot of different rabbit holes. He brings a great statistical bund to it as well as a kind of eye for golf and he watches a lot of golf, so that helps. So here is Joseph LaMagna and UH can't wait for another year of golf. Joseph, are you a man of New Year's resolutions or not?

00:02:41
Speaker 3: Maybe it's to whine less about coverage, but I think we could all do that probably, So maybe I'll try and lead the charge on abstaining from some of the coverage takes.

00:02:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a delicate line with coverage because if nobody nobody whinds, nothing happens. If everybody winds, then it's just it makes it worse, you know, it's just a h I think more more of the blame needs to be put on on the organization that sells the rights and then has kind of their thumb on the scale all year of it, and and forces the networks to do a lot of prepackaged stuff and graphics throughout the telecast. I think that's, you know, part part of why the coverage is with the way the coverage is, but I definitely don't think it's it's great.

00:03:30
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:03:30
Speaker 3: Actually, I think I'm gonna take that back because I'm not ready to give up the whining about coverage takes. It does warrant a lot of criticisms. I think I'm gonna stick with it this year.

00:03:38
Speaker 2: I am excited to see what like new things they roll out that last like four weeks are like the UH. I'll never forget when they did the UH. The walk and talk interviews at the at Capital a couple of years ago, and Leishman was in the lead and they talked to him, and then the next drive like coasts in the junk and you know, JT's like, I'm never doing that it. You know, in general, mid game interviews in every other sport are possibly the most pointless things in the world that never get anything valuable said in them.

00:04:13
Speaker 3: It's it's terrible. I don't know why people have this appetite for hearing what these players are saying on the golf course. I want to hear them talk through shots, but outside of that, I don't need to hear any of that.

00:04:24
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, So twenty twenty two is upon us, whether we're ready for it or not, and figured it'd be great to have you on to kind of set up the year, talk about what we're looking forward to for the year, and then just some a few other things. You're obviously deep in the analytics, but you also watch a lot of golf, and you know, I think you're you marry the analytics with the eye test quite well. And I'd love to start off talking. I think kind of the story of the year at the beginning of the year is the youth in the top ten, top twenty, top fifty in the world rankings top one hundred. Really, we're at an unprecedented level of young talent. Do you see this stopping? Do you are we getting younger? Are we gonna keep getting younger? This is obviously, by far the youngest top ten in the world rankings we've ever seen.

00:05:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely don't think we're gonna get older. But I also don't think that some of these players that I guess we'd call older are done yet by any means. I mean, if you include like Rory Brooks Koepka, those guys aren't old at all, and I think they're a huge part of the picture for twenty twenty two. So I guess the way I'm looking at it, I think there's an enormous amount of parody going into twenty twenty two, and at any given large event, you've got fifteen to twenty players who can win, which is really exciting to look forward to.

00:05:53
Speaker 2: That's the exciting thing. I think people lament that, oh, it's so young. I don't really know who these guys are. I think one of golf'sould biggest strong suits is the longevity of their stars. You know, people have gotten to know Phil Mickelson, whether you like them or dislike them. For thirty years with these guys, a lot of people don't know much about them, and there hasn't been that much time for their personalities to really come out and be on display. But what you hit on, like the NFL feasts on parody, the idea of players having dramatic swings year to year is totally possible because of their youth here, Like you know, the reality with golf is like rarely who's the best at twenty two is the best at twenty eight. And what we're seeing is a lot of guys that are really good at twenty two to twenty four bursting onto the scene and some of their counterparts. And a perfect example would be like Sam Burns, Like nobody was talking about Sam Burns last year, and now he's tenth in the world, and we're gonna see guys make jumps up and we're also gonna see guys jump down.

00:06:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'd be curious for your opinion on this, but I think a big part of what you've hit on and understanding of player's personality so to speak, is seeing what they do in really large moments. And I think the current structure of the tour without complaining too much doesn't allow for a lot of those really intense moments to happen. I mean, you have to have a major championship come down to the wire and see a player hit a shot in an intense situation to really feel that intensity. If we had more match play, for example, you might see a lot more of that. But I mean, how much information do you glean from Cameron Champ winning the three M Open? I mean, does that reflect much of his personality? So I think that that's at play here.

00:07:39
Speaker 2: I think how players close out their first wins, you know, is a big deal, right, and how they get it done. I think you see them any win on tour when it's your first is a really big deal. I think, like any win on tour is a big deal in general, but particularly for a young player, getting that first when off their back early is a big deal, and it gives you an idea of how they process things because typically I think with golf, like just in general, you know, the normal human being reaction is that you move up levels in golf and you're uncomfortable. And what happens when you play golf uncomfortable is typically people get a little quick and they don't hit the ball as well, they make dumb decisions, they make their rush, they just you know, everything's moving fast, right, it's hard to process. You hear this with the NFL or the NBA all the time. The speed of the game. I think that in a way mentally, the speed of the game and golf is that way when you move up levels. But then they're these extraordinary talents, and we've seen a lot of them come on the scene lately where the game it doesn't really matter because they're so good, you know, and they know that they're that good, whereas like some players, you know, if they aren't hot right at the way, Like that's the thing with golf is like if you're not hot right when you need to be hot, you're not getting up there for a year, a year and a half, two years with like what happened with the pandemic. So that I think is one of the things with it. Like I think like that first win, but I agree like match play brings it out because nobody wants to lose a match, and it puts that like final round pressure on every single round that you play match play, right, you feel that that's why playing match plays such a great practice for just regular joes I who want to be better at golf. Is that because it puts you in these situations where you feel pressure. It could you could be playing for nothing you just don't want to lose. But yeah, I think that I kind of like have started to think about, like where are the barometer moments? Like you know, it's like Christmas Day games in the NBA are barometer moments, you know, when rival teams that are clearly going to make the playoffs in the NFL or barometer moments. And there are a few tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule the lead up to major season now that are clear barometers I think like Tory Pines stands out, Riviera obviously Arnold Palmer, and then you've got obviously the players, which is whatever you want to call it, the biggest tournament there. But the problem is then after the majors, there aren't really those barometer moments.

00:10:20
Speaker 3: Agree And again, I think with match play you would get that organically because you're resetting the score every day. And right now you have so many runaway tournaments where a player on the back nine doesn't have to hit many stressful shots. You wouldn't have that with match play. So I guess another barometer moment. If you watch a lot of PGA Tour golf, I think some of the most exciting shots are Friday afternoon when a player has a big shot on eighteen to make the cut and you know it has a really big impact on his career and if he's going to get his card next year. Like, I think those are some of the most exciting moments. We could create a lot more of those by you know, varying the format a little bit.

00:10:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's fun because, like you know, Shane and Maxhoma did the GHETA Grip pod and Max was on there regularly for all last year the back catalog. If you haven't listened to that, it is wonderful to go listen to. But one of the things Max always talked about was like there needs to be more coverage dedicated to the players on the cut on Friday, Like that should be what you're leading with with the coverage is like this guy, he's too off the cut, he hasn't made it, like you know, because that's where also like the pressure of like keeping your card not to use Paul Easinger's line there, but like you know, reshuffles are dictated by like cuts made and where you are on priority lists, Like there's more than just the making the cut at that event. That ride on a lot of these tournaments is is like, is this rookie gonna be able to get starts for the next month, because a lot of times if you don't play well, then you're out of out of starts until you know, the middle of summer. It's like, you these guys need flow a lot of times to play well.

00:12:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I also think you should consider what are the incentives on a Saturday. And I'm not saying that those rounds aren't important, but if we're talking about the viewing experience, like what's gonna get you really excited about some shots on Saturday, especially when a player's tied for fortieth place, because even moving from fortieth to thirtieth isn't going to have that big of an impact on a player's career.

00:12:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree. It's it's definitely the hardest sport to televise, which is a you know, somehow we've switched the topic back to the coverage discussion here, but it's definitely the most difficult sport to televise because there is so much going on, and I think like, eventually we're gonna get to a point where it's a kind of like red zone like experience where you could switch around, or maybe not red zone, but maybe like league pass where you could switch around and watch different groups. But we're seemingly a ways of ways away from that outside of the Week of the Players in Augusta National. So one thing I wanted to talk about with the youth like it. Obviously the two big stories of youth would be Victor Holand and Colin Morikawa, who are both in the top seven of the world rankings. Haveland has kind of made a sprint up in terms of these guys, and what's made them so successful is the early indicator for you know, success elite ball striking because these are the two guys. I mean, is it that obvious, like who's going to succeed is going to be the best ball strikers?

00:13:38
Speaker 4: I think that's a big part of it.

00:13:39
Speaker 3: I tend to view every player individually, and I probably value putting more than a lot of people who do a lot of golf analytics work. Clearly, with Colin Morikawa, we're seeing an iron player who we haven't seen in a long time, probably since Tiger Woods. I think what's remarkable about Colin is that he's not just the best long iron player, but he's also the best wedge player, which is really weird to see both of those statistics lined up next to each other, because you just don't see this in golf fery often when somebody's dominant in two different categories like that a.

00:14:14
Speaker 2: Lot of times, like what makes you really good at long iron play takes away from your wedge play or what makes you really good? You know, like it's that's really that's the super crazy thing.

00:14:24
Speaker 3: What do you mean by what makes you good at your long irons? Can can take away from me?

00:14:28
Speaker 2: Like a perfect example, like one of the best drivers of the golf ball I've ever seen was Rico Hoe at usc who's playing on the corn Ferry Tour. I believe now, you know, you could he just hit this little cut and he could hit driver off the deck. He just was a machine with He's still as a machine with a driver. But like why he was such a good driver. You know, he didn't hit the ball like the furthest He could have hit it a lot further, but he was really steep and that steepness like really hurt his wedge play, right, And I think like a lot of times, like you get players that are sweepers, like who you know are sweepers, are really good wedge players, but they aren't always as good with long irons.

00:15:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting you bring that up because I think technique is probably a missing from the statistics conversation a lot, and that's probably something people will start to spend a lot more time thinking about. Even when it comes to technique chipping, that's something I've been thinking about a lot recently. You see Tiger talking about drawing chips, and then you start to think of the elite players in the history of the game who've kind of drawn their chips. It's interesting to think about technique that way.

00:15:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, And obviously, like Havlin, who you were talking about before I cut you off, is somebody that has like completely reworked his short game technique in recent years, and I think that's been a big part of his improvement.

00:15:47
Speaker 3: Agree, he still has some room to grow with the chipping, but he's not a bad putter by any means, and he's an unbelievable driver of the golf ball. He's consistently gaining distance on his peers, and he's a very accurate driver of the ball.

00:16:01
Speaker 4: Both both more.

00:16:02
Speaker 3: Cowa and Holand are some of the most accurate drivers in the world among top ten players in the world.

00:16:07
Speaker 2: Distance and like strokes gained off the Tea's It's really interesting because just in terms of distance, I think the correlation of driving distance and rank in the world. Success on the PGA Tour, whether you deem that money list or scoring average, has definitely risen in the last ten years. It's become you know, forever approach was king, and now you might be able to argue make the argument that distances is king over approach play. From your standpoint, do you see that trend continuing and distance continuing to become more and more important, or will approach play is klu Morikawa essentially like the savior of approach play is still king.

00:16:51
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:16:51
Speaker 3: I think people get a little too bogged down in sweeping generalizations. So all strokes gained are equal. If you gain a stroke on the green one full stroke, it's identical to gaining one full stroke off the tee. Now, gaining strokes off the t tends to be more predictive of future success than gaining a bunch of your strokes on the green.

00:17:12
Speaker 4: But that doesn't have to hold true for every player.

00:17:16
Speaker 3: So if you watch Colin Morikawa and you believe I'm seeing something special, he's an unbelievable iron player that's going to persist, then he can continue to gain his strokes with the iron player. So do I think that you'll see a lot of Do I think strokes gained off the tee will sort of be king because it's a reliable skill and players are going to make a lot of money being really good drivers of the ball. Yes, but it doesn't mean that all the top players in the world have to win that way.

00:17:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's like the comparison to baseball pitchers, right A guy that throws ninety eight shows up every day and throws ninety eight. He doesn't have to rely on his cutter cutting. You know, he's got just the ability to overpower it and it's there every day. And I think that's that consistency he talked about is the big thing with distance. But I think that same things there with iron play. And if you look at the the long longevity in golf, I think it is directly correlated typically with iron play, Like iron play is the skill that endures. That's why Tiger Woods won, you know, the Masters a couple of years ago. That's why Phil Mickelson won the PGA, is because these guys are generational iron players, and I think that that will hold true, you know, in terms of like the longevity argument, which could be you know it. That's where I think the Colin Morikawa discussion is a very interesting one because of his He's not necessarily short, but he's not long, but he does have this elite iron play, you know, and he's winning at a you know, historic rate. He's not at a Tiger rate, but he's at a Philler Ernie rate, which is, you know, one of the ten to fifteen best players of all time. So you know, where do you see you know, with Calin Morikawa. It's young, it's early, it's hard to predict the future, but like, what do you see from him at a statistical level that do you think this is sustainable on the path that he's been the last two years.

00:19:14
Speaker 3: I do think it's sustainable. Part of the picture that I think is really relevant about Calin Marikawa is how straight he hits his driver. I hope that's not lost on people, because that's a very consistent part of Colin's game. He is one of the most accurate drivers on the tour. So when you combine really straight driving with unbelievable iron play, you're gonna get consistent results. His short game has room for improvement, but I think that's the main limiting factor here, even more so than his length.

00:19:46
Speaker 2: So you're saying Marikawa is a rich man's chez Revy, really rich He's said Jeff Bezos chez Reevey. He does hit it longer than chez Revy, you know. So this is a you know, in terms of like when we look at like average to short hitters in recent history, you just all you have to do is look at the list of people that have won the most major championships in golf history. You go down and it's like Nick Faldough, Zach Johnson, Jordan Speith, like, especially if you look at players like post Jack Nicholas and Arnold Palmer era players like, there's not a long list of short hitters who have had sustained success on the PGA Tour.

00:20:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think that that gets into an interesting conversation around winning versus consistency.

00:20:37
Speaker 4: And I think something you see.

00:20:39
Speaker 3: On tour right now with this distance push is when you have a long hitter who finds this swing for the week and hits the ball straight, puts himself in a really good position to win. And so it maybe that results in some more volatile results. But when they find their game for a week, they're twenty yards past Colin more Kywa consistently, it's really hard to overcome that distance advantage. So if you're looking at particularly major championship winners, I think you're gonna see a lot of people who hit the ball straight that week. And that's I think Bryson is a prime example. When he hits the ball straight, good luck. He's an unbelievable putter and he's bombing the ball past you, but he's gonna miss some cuts that he wouldn't have missed if he was, you know, didn't go on this distance pursuit.

00:21:20
Speaker 2: And more Kawa likewise, is like he's so consistent te to Green, it's really a matter of like, if he puts well, he's gonna have a chance to win. You know, if he puts above average, he's gonna be in the mix and if he puts well, he's gonna win with with that. Like, do you ever, is there any way to look at skills like who has like lots of peak performances, like where their best is really good? You know, they might be average, but they have you know a lot of above average and below average their average because like they have a lot of good and bad and there isn't a lot of in between.

00:21:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, there are ways you can look at that. You know, we adjust our strokes gain for strength to field, so you could kind of look at who has the most variance in their overall strokes gained performances. I think Bryson would be a pretty good example off the top of my head of somebody whose peaks and valleys are going to be pretty extreme, but that's beneficial in the modern PGA tour ecosystem, where points and world ranking points are often determined pretty heavily by winning and less so by finishing tie for eighteenth place.

00:22:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is something I've been thinking about. I heard what was I listening to it? I was listening to is Zach Lowe podcast and he had Jeff van Gundy on and Van Gundy and this is something I think about all the time Van Gundy was talking about like how everybody's chasing consistency and when you listen, when you if you remember back when Tiger was in his prime, all he was ever chasing was consistency. The best players in the world are just trying to get more consistently good. And what's really a it's kind of almost divergent from like the idea of sport. Like you want players on your team. You want the guy that, like, you know, he's gonna get twenty three points a night regardless, you know. He want the running back that gets you know, four yards of carry when it's a bad run, and then like what Jonathan Taylor's doing this year. You don't want the guy that like might drop forty and then go bagel for a month on you, you know. And I think what's what the tour system has done is like between the OWGR and the way the fed X Cup is set up, is like and winning is hard, you know, it's the hardest thing to do is win. But is it over rewarded? You know, because if everybody's if the best players in the every sport are striving for more consistent results, you know, shouldn't consistency be more rewarded.

00:23:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. And when you say is it over rewarded? Like according to who? And And that's kind of it comes back to your point on different sports. Right in the in professional basketball, when you get to the playoffs, it's a seven game series and the home team has a significant advantage. It's not that high variance of a sport, so every game during the regular season actually does carry some importance. Whereas on the PGA Tour, if you're Brooks Koepka, and that's probably who I should have led with in terms of being high variants, he looks at the schedule and he says, look, I just want to win these major championships, maybe contend a few other times throughout the year. I'm not after consistency because the tour doesn't incentivize it. So when you say is it overrewarded or underrewarded, I think from a structural perspective, it's under rewarded.

00:24:43
Speaker 2: And this might tie back to what you were talking about at the at the oddset about creating these moments, like I think, like I think Brooks Kopka, if if there were more competitive moments in some of these smaller events, like in match play, like brooks Kepka strikes me as a guy I like, especially when he played that Bryson match, which I tuned into for a little bit, but like you know, going into that, I kind of was like a buddy asked me about it, and I'm like, listen, I just I know brooks Kopka doesn't want to lose to Bryson, probably more than he wants to win. And I imagine that Brooks is that type of competitor where like he hates losing maybe more than he likes winning. And I think a lot of a lot of tour players are like that, and that's where that match play probably would bring out more competitive situation. It also bring a lot more drama to.

00:25:32
Speaker 3: The PGA Tour. I completely agree. I think it's also easier to cover from a television perspective. But no, I agree with you. I think some of the better golf brooks Kopka played this year was probably in that match with Bryson d Schambeau, And I don't think that's a coincidence.

00:25:47
Speaker 2: It's not that I don't played good to the Ryder Cup too, right, right.

00:25:51
Speaker 3: But I mean, what gets you up in the morning for a Saturday round in a random seventy two whole stroke play event. If you're one of the best players in the.

00:25:59
Speaker 2: World, Yeah, it's I don't know. You know, it's money, And at a certain point, these guys have so much money, it doesn't it's not that significant, which is crazy to say as somebody that doesn't have that kind of money. It's like when these guys kind of it's like, oh, one hundred thousand dollars whatever.

00:26:16
Speaker 3: But Andy, if it makes you feel any better, I too do not have that kind of money, and I understand.

00:26:24
Speaker 2: So let's talk about one topic I wanted to touch on was Rory's resurgence in the in the back half of the season when most people were not paying attention after the Ryder Cup, Rory played some of the best golf that we've seen in some time. Is Rory back?

00:26:43
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it depends on what you mean by being back. Do I think Rory McElroy will win golf tournaments in twenty twenty two?

00:26:50
Speaker 4: Yes? Do I think he'll win a major? No, it's not my expectation. Rory.

00:26:57
Speaker 3: He has an unbelievable short game. I don't know if his putting is appreciated enough by anybody not named Brad faxon his short game's incredible. The iron play does struggle periodically, and he hits some of these shots that it feels like everything with Rory's full speed and every iron shot he puts everything into it and you're just hoping it ends up near the hole and doesn't go twenty five feet off line. And I think that kills him in some of these big major championships. He makes these mistakes. I know what Tory pines. He had the unbelievable recovery. I think he chipped in on Friday after a really wild iron shot. But you got to start to think about how do those iron shots play at Augusta. Oh he got up and down right right, But that doesn't work everywhere. And I think with Rory, you see these loose iron shots and some of these decisions that make you, you know, a little bit, make you scratch your head, and he does it with more frequency than I think is indicative of a top player in the world. Again, another example of just a random poll, but his t shots at the Tour Championship a couple of years ago. I don't know if people remember this but he almost hits a drive into the water on eighteen on his Thursday or Friday round, gets away with it. Then the next day he does the same thing again and tops his second shot into the water. At some level, I think the course management is an issue for Rory.

00:28:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, he might hit some of the worst shots of an all time great player that we've ever seen. Like, I mean, like some of the wedges. I remember what he was in the final group with Justin Thomas at Bridgestone a few years ago, and it was just like, how's this guy in the final grill? Like he's hitting wedges that are sailing over greaves by you know, fifteen yards. But at the same time, you know, the skill set in general is intoxicating, and I you know, I don't know, he's a guy that you just can't quit. But like, I don't I think gone are the days of him. Like one of the things that I might be a pet peeve of mine is like, well, Rory's the most talented player out there. I think that time is long gone.

00:29:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I don't I wouldn't push back too much on him being one of the most talented players out there, but I mean it's also about what you do with your talent, and I'm kind of frustrated watching some of these iron shots sail over the back of a green and leave himself short sighted when I think exercising just a little bit more restraint and a little more control over his iron shots would go a long way.

00:29:32
Speaker 2: I mean, if he's one of the top top ten putters ever, he should rely on, you know, making fifteen footer every once in a while.

00:29:39
Speaker 3: I know people poke fun at that comment, but Rory is an outstanding putter, especially right now. But if you think about people have said that Rory does well in soft conditions, I do think there's something too the impact that soft conditions have on an errant approach shot, and when it doesn't bound super far away from the hole and it's soft so it's easier to get up and down right, it's not as punishing as infirm conditions. Rory's arerant iron shots aren't punished as much, So I think there's something there.

00:30:12
Speaker 2: That's So that's an interesting point. So he's a great like obviously like no nobody's gonna argue he's one of the greatest players ever, and he's probably the player of his generation. Now, Like what prohibits him from being really great are the bad misses, And that makes sense, Like when it's soft, the bad misses are the penalty might go from you know, a half a shot to point three shots, and that's why he plays well in soft conditions.

00:30:42
Speaker 3: And it also exaggerates length a little bit as well, right, which is only gonna play into Rory's hands. So I don't think it's random that people get excited for soft conditions Rory. And I also don't want to say that he's a bad iron player. He's not a bad iron player. He's a great iron player, but he hits some really bad iron shots and then those come back to bite you when you're trying to, you know, win a major championship at Augusta.

00:31:03
Speaker 2: Yeah. So as as somebody who is you know, a fan because I grew up, these are the players of my my youth, my generation. Watching these young guns, the young guns of yesteryear, I kind of like as I think about today with more Kawa, Burns, Hoveland, Scheffler, I can't like help in rom I mean, you have to put Rob in there, but I can't help to think back to like the the mid two thousands when you had Tiger, but then you had the young ends of Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and and Sergio Garcia hitting the scene, And do those three have any hope anymore? They're they're they just started, like, you know, seemingly just wandering around the top fifty in the world line lately. Justin Rose hadn't been outside of the top fifteen in the world forever until last year and he kind of rock bottomed out, but you know, played some encouraging golf at the end of the year, Like what do you see as these guys who are you know, probably at the back end of their prime is the way golf used to be are now like at kind of like where you're like, wow, they're just like average players right now.

00:32:13
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:32:13
Speaker 3: I think it's easy to talk about golf and pretend like you know what you're talking about, So you should. I do believe people should make some predictions and be willing to put their name behind them. So one I'm willing to say in twenty twenty two, I think you're going to see a really good year from Justin Rose. Again, just from watching him this year and then also looking pretty deep into his data, I think he has is showing flashes of a really strong player. Every putt he hits looks like it's going to go in. I know people can say that putting's really you know, high variance, and isn't that predictive, But when you watch somebody who's that talented with the putter, at some point he finds a swing for a week and gets himself into contention.

00:32:57
Speaker 4: I don't know.

00:32:58
Speaker 3: People remember Justin Rose was the number one ranked player at the end of twenty eighteen with a couple weeks to go. In twenty eighteen, made a bad equipment deal with Hanma I think, almost objectively, and his game kind.

00:33:10
Speaker 4: Of fell off.

00:33:11
Speaker 3: But seeing some flashes in this past year, and I think he's gonna have a really good year. He finished top ten and two of the majors this year. I believe he's driving the golf ball well, incredible putter. I think you're gonna see a really good year from him.

00:33:23
Speaker 2: I mean, this is this is the guy that's like the model of consistency with Justin Rose, Like I mean, it was him and Rory were the two guys that hadn't been outside of the top fifteen in the world. I think since two thousand and eight, and they both fell out last year, which was kind of crazy. It's just like a signal of like the changing times in golf. But you know they you know, a crazy, crazy run of consistency with both those players. But like just a road. That's the thing what you said about putting, like it's crazy. The Varians is nuts with it, but everybody knows when they play with a really great putter. How you're just frightened that every putt in reputt looks like it's gonna go in, whether it goes in or not. Like there's there's a difference between bad putters and really good putters who might be in a in a slump, you know, it's like a shooting slump. You know.

00:34:12
Speaker 4: I agree.

00:34:13
Speaker 3: And if you're thinking about like Augusta, I mean, how many players would you rather have hit a ten footer for you than justin Rose? It's a short list.

00:34:22
Speaker 2: Do you do you see any big changes like anything? Are you gonna be watching what the impact of green books have and not being allowed? Like do you is there is there anything to be watching? Like what should people be watching if they want to say, because I think there's gonna be a lot of like you know, just this is the way of media now and and social media. There's gonna be grand sweeping conclusions all over the place within a week, which is obviously the wrong thing to do about greens books, But like, what should we look for with like the impact of maybe not that not having greens books could have onto it.

00:35:00
Speaker 3: So I'm of the opinion and it's not informed by much data. It's purely speculation. I do not think the greens reading books are going to have much of an impact on player performance. If you want to track whether or not it does, what I would do is I would wait, if you can, about four to five months, and then check like the tour make percentage between like five and ten feet or whatever they have up on the website, just the tour average, compare it to the last couple of years, and see if there's a big drop off.

00:35:31
Speaker 4: I am skeptical that.

00:35:32
Speaker 3: There is that there will be, but I think that's a reasonable way to look at it. And also, like, let's see what happens with Bryson. I think Bryson's one of the best putters in the world. Is his potting performance really going to drop off because there's no Greens Reading books. I honestly don't think so.

00:35:48
Speaker 2: But like a small drop off would be a big blow to Bryson, like in that department, right, I mean, that's the difference between being a top five player and a top fifteen player.

00:36:00
Speaker 3: It is, and I'd be curious for his perspective on it. But how different is hitting a twelve footer after you've looked at the Greens reading book versus if you didn't have any access to that. I mean, I understand that there's a difference there, but you're only making that putt what thirty five percent of the time anyway, like forty percent of the time. A lot has to go wrong for it to be the difference between making a put and missing a putt.

00:36:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, and who knows what these guys will have in the books, Like they can't test drivers reliably before before tournament, so like who knows if they're even going to check if guys are using old books or using new books. And before anybody says it's a game of honor, anytime millions of dollars are at stake, people cheat. So that's it's just a general good rule of thumb to live by. H with everybody's favorite exercise. It's a new year. Who is going to be the breakout player of twenty twenty two? Last year gave us Jason co Crack, Nobody saw Coming, and Sam Burns This is I have a lot of different ways I tried rubbage about and figure out who could be, you know, a little undervalued. I'm curious about your ideology of trying to identify players that might be you know, prime for breakout and a few players that you have on your list.

00:37:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I guess when I think about this, my head goes more to names of players who could be in contention a lot.

00:37:32
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's the way I think too. You know, you got to look at guys that are going to be on the board a lot, right.

00:37:39
Speaker 3: And like, how many corn Fairy Tour players end up being a really relevant part of the PGA Tour season for the next year. So that's not to say that that it can't happen that one of these new you know, guys who just got status will be really relevant week in and week out. But when I was thinking about breakout players, wasn't really thinking about that basket of new it could happen. But I'm thinking more about who do I expect to be contending week in and week out in major championships. Maybe this is a hot take, maybe not. I mean it shouldn't be. I think Brooks Koepka is primed for a really, really good year. I know that's a name everyone knows. It's not a secret that he plays well in major championships. But when you listen to people making their predictions for who will win majors next year, and you know, you look at whatever Vegas markets, I don't think brooks Keopka's getting the respect that he deserves as one of the best players in a really long time. So that's a player that I think could have a really big twenty twenty two. Unbelievable iron player, hits the ball far. When he's putting well, you can make a ton of birdies. I just don't see why he's not a part of every conversation about major championships.

00:38:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, most importantly, like psychologically, Brooks probably feels disrespected, which we've seen is like when he plays the best off because people are kind of writing of Off and slight ago. He's I mean, he's sixtieth of the world, which is absolutely crazy to think for a guy that's won four major championships in the last what three years? Four years?

00:39:14
Speaker 3: I don't think he has many top finishes over the last you know, twelve months, because and again it's it's hard to say he doesn't care, but I really don't think he cares that much. He's got a couple of good finishes in majors he won in Phoenix. Other than that, I mean, you'd have to dig through a little bit to find too many other good finishes. So I think he's gonna have a really good twenty twenty two, and I don't think he cares where he ranks on the FedEx cup point system. Who else you got another example of a player that I think has an opportunity to be in contention week in and week out.

00:39:47
Speaker 4: Somebody who kind of.

00:39:48
Speaker 3: Had a quiet twenty twenty one, but maybe not that quiet if you dig into it a little more.

00:39:53
Speaker 4: Is Xander schaffley Man going with the no names?

00:39:57
Speaker 3: Well, we can get to some, we can get to some no names, but Xander was pretty quiet for a lot of twenty twenty one. I understand he won the Olympics, but he wasn't that relevant for a lot of the back half of twenty twenty one, he started to hit the driver a little bit crooked. If he gets that back on track, I think Xander could absolutely win his first major. When you hear other players talk about Xander, they have enormous respect for his game. So I think that's somebody who could be relevant. But we can get we can get to some longer shots. An another somewhat big name, but he just seems to have completely escaped public conversation as will Zalatorus. So I don't know if that counts as a breakout.

00:40:36
Speaker 4: Player or not.

00:40:37
Speaker 2: But I'm I'm I think I'm out.

00:40:40
Speaker 4: You're out on Xalators, I'm out on the putting.

00:40:42
Speaker 2: The putting just I've just I just don't know if I like. I think he's gonna contend so much, but I have a question about will he win very much? He didn't win a lot like as great as he was on the corn Ferry Tour. They were high finish as they weren't winns great of a college player. Is he like? He didn't? He did? He won match like he won the Junior AM that's his big like title. That's match play. It's a lot different than stroke play, And I think like one of the things I saw like that back nine on Sunday at Augusta National. You know, obviously the putter has always been the big question mark with with will Z l Torres and the armlock kind of brought him from many tour to the PGA Tour. Is like can he make putts on Sunday in the afternoon? And I think last year we saw at the Masters as well as the the Open Championship, like what caused him a couple of year delay to getting to the tour? Agree, And that makes me wonder if he ever wins.

00:41:45
Speaker 3: No, it's it's a clear concern. I think he's shown an ability to put himself into contention. He's really young. He knows what he has to work on, and I like that he only he knows what his weaknesses are. There are other players who when you look get their strengths and weaknesses. There's a couple things that need to clean up going into the next season, and it is I think there's something promising about when you have one clear weakness, if you're feeling good with the putter that week, you could win. So I am pretty bullish on will Z Alaturus in general.

00:42:17
Speaker 2: He's also a guy that could strike his way to win. Yeah, Like he could just be so good that nobody else even has a shot even if he puts average, which is like there aren't a lot of guys like that on tour.

00:42:31
Speaker 3: Agree, And I think you can make the same to say that you don't say somebody doesn't think they're gonna Will's Alataurus will win because of the putter is valid, But you could make the same argument about a lot of players who have won big golf tournaments like Khideki Matsuyama, right, who comes out and wins the Masters. So again, you just have to find it for one week or strike your way there, hit some really good chip shots. I think will z Alatrus is capable of that.

00:42:57
Speaker 2: All right, I have turned me around. I've just gotten really really out at it because of the optics of the stroke.

00:43:06
Speaker 3: I think that's fair, though I'm not suggesting that it isn't. But again, it's not like he also has all these other holes in his game and he just caught fire for four weeks but yet to get to some longer shots. This is a player we have very limited information about, but I am interested in seeing what Hayden Buckley does this year, He's proven that he can win on multiple tours.

00:43:30
Speaker 2: Now.

00:43:30
Speaker 3: It was a really good college player. And in the small sample of events we have from the fall, his driving accuracy is remarkable and he also hits the ball long. He could be a true great ball striker on the tour. Again, really limited sample size, but he had two top tens in the fall swing and then three bad appearances.

00:43:52
Speaker 2: That's the thing you're looking like. I always like try and think about guys that were like in the mix on Saturday, even a lot, but like maybe had just a bad final round because like what we talked about at the beginning, like you get uncomfortable and then you don't play your best. But like, two top tens for a rookie is a big deal because that means he was like in the mix.

00:44:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I believe he played really well in the corn Ferry Tour playoffs. He's won multiple times on development tours. Again, really good college player. And when I say that his driving accuracy numbers are good, you're looking at somebody who if he were to replicate what he did in the Fall all season, he'd be by far the most accurate driver on tour. I don't expect that to happen. I don't think again that it's much more likely that he regresses towards a much more PGA Tour average number. But he could be a top twenty five thirty most accurate player on tour. Also hitting it far, that's a recipe for making a lot of money.

00:44:52
Speaker 2: And that's like effectively like what Victor Hoblin has going for.

00:44:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know that he hits it quite as far as Victor Hoblin, but you're exactly right that from a driving profile perspective, they would check out pretty similarly. I doubt his iron play is quite as good. I'd honestly be sprised if his putting he's as good. But we're just talking about somebody who, you know, maybe could get to, you know, this the second round of the playoffs or something like that.

00:45:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're talking about a guy who's a young guy who might become a top thirty player you know, in the world, like legitimately chanced to be that because of different profile, you know. And that's like the important thing with with with all this conversation, it's not like it's just like a guy that you don't see coming is undervalued that you could pencil in you just watch it. You could be the guy early on the Island, sure, and another name like that.

00:45:43
Speaker 3: I don't think he's quite as under the radar, But Eric van Ryan, I know he's a shotgun start favorite. He's very similar. He's kind of like a Cory Conners in his profile. The short game's really bad, but the ball striking is really really good, and he hits it straight, he hits it long, especially the second half of the year. I think Eric Vnroyan could be somebody who again makes a lot of cuts, maybe finds a hot putter, and gets himself into contention in a big event, especially if you have a course we're hitting driver a lot. Maybe some penal rough could see it in Eric van roy and making a splash.

00:46:21
Speaker 2: I like Corey Connors, Is that crazy?

00:46:24
Speaker 1: Like?

00:46:24
Speaker 2: I just like believe that at some point he can become an average chipper of the golf ball. Is that a fleeting thought?

00:46:34
Speaker 3: I think with Corey Connors, I almost group him with like an Abraham answer. And I don't know if that's makes sense to people or not, but they're both really straight drivers of the golf ball. They don't hit the ball, particularly far. Connors hits it farther than answer. I wonder what they do to take the next step. And at some level, you know, Corey Connors has been on tour for a while, what's he going to do this offseason to ascend the rankings. Is it gonna be clean up the short game because he's he's probably known that the last couple of years.

00:47:03
Speaker 2: And he should buy an armlock putter. Okay, go go to Dixon or Golf Galaxy, buy buy an armlock. Just start. It worked for a lot of other guys.

00:47:13
Speaker 3: I don't think that's crazy at all, But that's where I come to like, well, what is going to be what takes this player to the next step? And with Corey Connors, he should know what that is. I'm sure he does. It's pretty obvious. But I think with some of these other players where they have a little bit more power and they have one thing they can clean up that gets them into contention a lot of golf tournaments. Corey Connors does fit that profile. But I feel like we've seen this for a few years now and I am interested in what that could actually be that takes.

00:47:42
Speaker 4: Him to the next level.

00:47:45
Speaker 2: So you're saying I'm falling for the same trick for the fifth straight year.

00:47:51
Speaker 3: I'm not saying that I think Corey Connors isn't going to have a good season. It's just how does he win a big time golf tournament.

00:48:00
Speaker 2: Well, that's what I'm saying. I guess this is like the argument for zale Taurus too, Like xale Torus is better than Corey Connors though and younger. So I guess that's the argument for xale Taurus over Connors in this category. So I just lost my own thought. I'm just it's like the same thing with Fleetwood. Like Fleetwood you could put in the same bucket, who obviously has regressed significantly the last two years from you know, a top fringe, top ten player in the world is like you saw it, like he was a great driver, great iron player, but like would the putter ever come around? And it just hasn't.

00:48:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually have some Fleetwood notes when I was looking over some data in preparation for this. I think one thing about Fleetwood that's a bit concerning. I mean, I would love to see him regain his form.

00:48:53
Speaker 4: He was a very.

00:48:54
Speaker 3: Accurate driver of the golf ball in like twenty eighteen. I'm sure even into twenty nineteen that has fallen off quite a bit and he's not driving the ball accurately at all. So when you combine being inaccurate off the tea with really bad putting, I don't like to see when you have two skills that can come back to bite you in any given week. He had a couple good finishes on the European Tour. That's kind of boosting his world ranking right now. You have to do a lot of digging to find some good PGA Tour finishes from Fleetwood.

00:49:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's just been kind of irrelevant in I think, Like that's the thing is like when you are clearly deficient in certain skills, I think one of the things that happens is it puts more pressure on your the skills that are really good, and those skills are eventually going to deteriorate or have bad years. And when those when that happens, like you, it really exposes you as as a golfer. Like it's why, Like it's really the tricky thing with golf is like do you work really hard to improve your weaknesses and potentially sacrifice some of your strong You know, your strong suits by working really hard at your weaknesses, or do you just keep getting better at what you're really good at and figure maybe you get hot with with the putter for a week, or maybe you drive Like I don't think you could really drive it really bad and have a long PGA to our career, But who knows, you know.

00:50:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think one of the most interesting storylines of the next decade is how does Colin Morikawa do at Augusta? Like that that is a fascinating puzzle in my opinion. He does have some weaknesses with the short game, and you know, I was just recently rewatching some of his rounds at Augusta, Like there are shots for him out there that are very challenging, especially when you're giving up distance to the field. I was just watching him hit a wood into number five at Augusta on his second shot, Like, where does that ball end up? He's gonna have to get a tricky up and down there most of the time. Is he able to do that? And I think that's the big question mark with Morikawa at Agusa for the next ten years. Also, how does he play whole thirteen? He's kind of struggled with it. That's a tight drive when you like that stock fade, and then you know, I know he prefers hitting that cut you're hitting off a side hill. Lie, he put one in the creek last year on his approach shot. Like, I think there's some really challenging shots out there from morecawa, especially when you're giving up distance to the field.

00:51:29
Speaker 2: I think distance is a little overrated at this point at Augusta because I think it was underrated when when the average driver hit it to eighty. You know, it was, you know, so important to hit it three hundred to get over hills. But now everybody gets over hills at three hundred. But like I do agree with the shot shape thing, and like reinstate the back tee on five brings distance, makes distance so important on five, and they're adding a back tea on fifteen. You know that we know of So that's gonna make fifteen a lot tougher for shorter hair. So maybe you're you know, distance might be more important this year than it has been.

00:52:08
Speaker 3: So in general, when anytime I talk about distance, I'm always referring to the second shot as well, because that's a huge part of the story with why distance is an advantage, and fifteen is the example that I was going to bring up even before you just mentioned that new tea. It's very difficult to hit a long shot into the fifteenth green and hold it. It's also hard to lay up there and hit a wedge into that hole. So when you talk about distance being an advantage at Augusta, fifteen is a pretty clear example. And again was just watching more Kawa was round. He hit one over the back, ricocheted off that hill long of the green and went into the pond beyond the hole. If he was ten yards closer to the hole, maybe he hits a little bit less, club comes in a little higher and it stops. So I think distance is still a big advantage at Augusta, not on every hole, but it's going to be a relevant part of the more how A story at Augusta. I'm not saying you can't win there.

00:53:03
Speaker 4: He can't. Yeah.

00:53:04
Speaker 2: I always think in what you hit on earlier is like short game is always the undervalued skill at at Augusta. That's really important. And all you have to do is like watch Jordan speed play Augusta and you see how important short game is because the guy like you know that short grass all around the greens just accentuates the skill. And if you're uber skilled, you can get up and down from everywhere because you have a perfect lie right. But if you're if you're not so if you don't trust it, like a guy like you know who's played really well there, but it's more so because of his ball striking prowess, Lee Westwood. You know Lee Westwoods pulling out putter. He's who Westy.

00:53:44
Speaker 4: I'm kidding, come on.

00:53:48
Speaker 2: Don't hada, don't had on. You know, he might have another year of magic at him. But but you know he like you watch him around the greens and it's just terrifying. You see him grabbing his putter all over the place, and you're like, you know, he's just trying to get down in three versus like guys like Speth, like, I think he legitimately thinks he can hold any shot when it's in short grass and he's around the green.

00:54:10
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think you have to look at too many leaderboards to confirm that point. In twenty eighteen, it was what Reid, Fowler, Spif and Rory at the top of that leaderboard. I mean, those those are players with short game.

00:54:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, I'm boided for JT. I really do believe he's gonna play. Really he's gonna win a Masters because like he's got he's got that short game that like, I don't know statistically if this bears it out, but I like feel like he like is going to chip in. So I'm always like he's like a guy like a great putter where he's not a great putter, he's a great chipper like where you really think he might hole out any any chip.

00:54:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I have, I have his numbers around the green being very strong, especially in twenty twenty one. The clear issue with him is the putter right now, but I believe that can flip around. Again, That's the nice thing about putting being high variance. If you believe that Justin Thomas has had two decades of good putting, you know, and now he's just had a little bit of a drop off that can turn around.

00:55:13
Speaker 4: So I'm with you. I think Justin Thomas has tons of potential.

00:55:15
Speaker 2: He could be a breakout player.

00:55:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, But again, how about I've always watched him on whole thirteen. I think that's an interesting example of let's see what let's see how JT plays that hole in general, because that's a big T shot. Not hull holes are equal at Augusta.

00:55:31
Speaker 2: It'd be uh. I wonder if anybody ever, I'm not like an equipment junkie, if anyone ever looks at like putting like a super draw bias three wood in the bag for like that, just for the thirteenth te shots, since it's so important.

00:55:46
Speaker 3: I don't think that's a crazy decision. I mean, I think players in general could be more thoughtful about their equipment stack and what wedges you have and in all of those things. So I don't think a super draw three would is crazy at all.

00:55:59
Speaker 2: Like cause T shot, I mean you look at it, it's like that's the difference between a par and a potential eagle chance, Like every day is finding that fair away.

00:56:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I was watching more Kawa.

00:56:11
Speaker 3: I think he caught a tree trying to take a pretty tight line with a cut, and then he left himself two sixty in. I think he still ended up making birdie by stuffing a wedge. But that's you're right, Like that's the difference between a potential ego look and a par So another good lesson for people to be thinking about range of outcomes on a hole, and not all holes are equal, right, There's there are certain holes where the difference between a good shot and a bad shots much bigger than on other holes.

00:56:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, in a way, fifteen to become the more compelling part five. Though on that back nine, I think.

00:56:42
Speaker 3: I'm interested in your perspective on fifteen. I feel like architecturally it gets a lot of criticism and I.

00:56:47
Speaker 2: Kind of thought as good of a hole, But like for the modern game, I just think it it asks that question, it asks of the second shot. I think it really you can't miss short, like these guys are afraid of missing short, and then they said it long and if you lay up like it's actually like the reverse of what you think. You know you should be on the left side when you think you should be on the right side, especially to the left pin, if you know. I just think that that hole induces such huge numbers, you know, like we saw it with Cercio a couple of years ago. You saw it with Cabrera a few years before that. But like just in general, I think, like, you know, that's a hole, like you're you can ruin rounds on you know thirteen, you play bad, you make a six that hole, you play bad, you could walk away with it eleven.

00:57:36
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:57:36
Speaker 3: And another interesting point now that we're talking about this on fifteen, is it so often golf tournaments don't get to eighteen. I mean, they get there, but the shots aren't that important, right, Like Tiger just needs to make a bogie. Fifteen is going to be relevant, even in kind of a blowout. We saw it with a Decky this year where he suddenly brought the field back into play it with one loose shot. And I think whole fifteen has had some of the sneaky best shots in the history of golf. Honestly, I think.

00:58:07
Speaker 2: Sergios, I think VJ.

00:58:09
Speaker 3: Singh's shot in two thousand, if people aren't familiar with that, is one of the best golf shots in the history of golf. Tiger's shot into that into fifteen in his win twenty twenty incredible. So I think it's always going to bring suspense, and that's something.

00:58:24
Speaker 2: That Sergio's was insane. Sergio's was one of the best shots I've ever seen in my life. Was Sarah'sn's shot fifteen, the shot heard around the world.

00:58:33
Speaker 3: You're asking somebody from the wrong generation on that one.

00:58:37
Speaker 2: I think it was fifteen. I feel like it's last May that we don't know.

00:58:42
Speaker 3: I mean, like this is just such a random example. But Mark Leishman hit an incredible shot on that whole. I think it was I can't remember if it was this year or the year before, but some kind of peeling draw around that tree.

00:58:53
Speaker 4: That was like one of the.

00:58:54
Speaker 3: Best shots probably of the year. And I think Seewoo Kim broke his putter on that hole as well. So it usually brings excitement.

00:59:01
Speaker 2: Sarah's in Sarason's fifteen double eagle, I must have missed that one. This is it's a shot heard around the world. How do you come on all right now? Like not to talk negative? Who are who are some prime regressors?

00:59:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is that's always the tough question. So I don't want this to be interpreted as people who I don't think are good.

00:59:28
Speaker 2: No, I mean they got to a point that might have been just like, hey, they were played the best golf. They're they're in the best circumstance of their life.

00:59:36
Speaker 3: Right, And so I think there are some clear candidates, like a co Crack potentially like a Louis Ustazan, who just had a historic putting year, and you never know if that's gonna hold up. I think a more interesting name to potentially talk about is Sam Burns, who I'm not I'm not predicting that he's going to fall off, but he just played a stretch of incredible golf, got himself into contention a lot. He's ranked tenth in the world right now. Is that his ceiling like it easily could be, But he's so talented that you never know. So I think that's a really interesting name to watch over the next eighteen months.

01:00:15
Speaker 2: Where I default with him is like where he stacked with his peers. You know, he was he was the college player of the year when Morikawa was in college, and you know John Ram I think John Ram wasn't it was done at that point. But like, you know, when all these guys were in college and that mora college generation, Sam Burns was the player of the year, you know. And I think that to me carries a lot of weight that tells me that he wasn't out, He's not out of his depth here. And then he has like he has the guy that like I kind of look at it and It's like if he just tightens up a little bit here and there, he's got the intangibles to be really great because he's a good putter and he's very powerful, and you know last year it was just about like becoming a above average iron player.

01:01:08
Speaker 4: Yeah. No, I think that's fair.

01:01:11
Speaker 3: Is he of the caliber of the names around him? Is the question?

01:01:15
Speaker 4: Right?

01:01:16
Speaker 3: Like is he a justin Thomas Patrick Cantley as Xander Schoffley?

01:01:20
Speaker 4: Like maybe?

01:01:21
Speaker 2: And he could be the other thing that's underrated about Sam Burns. You know, he's had this for you know, back to amateur golf days and junior golf days. He's one of the cockiest sobs out there, you know, And I think like irrational confidence is a big thing with golf. Like I think Sam Burns believes that he might be the best player in the world, and I think that carries some serious weight into getting there, Like you have to believe. There's no I don't. I have no doubt that there's immense self confidence in that in that guy. So I'm I'm I'm not buying on the regressor regression from Sam Burns.

01:02:02
Speaker 4: No, that's fair.

01:02:03
Speaker 3: And I also think he showed in his when he was paired with Tiger in a final round a couple of years ago, that he clearly has that mental edge to be a great player. So this is not an argument that I see something that Sam Burns isn't great. I just see some of the names around him, and I think their expectations should be higher. One other name, maybe for a potential regression candidate, would be Dustin Johnson. It pains me to say it, but I wonder his driving was not good in twenty twenty one. It seems like anytime he hits the ball remotely straight, he's right in contention. Because he's really cleaned up his short game and his putting has become very good. How motivated is he to keep the putting sharp? Does the driving accuracy get a little bit better? I don't think you're gonna I think we're past the days of Dustin Johnson being in contention week in and week out. I think he'll show flashes, but we might be passed his week in and week out dominance.

01:02:57
Speaker 2: A couple of years ago. I had a take that so Justin was going to regress, and then he had like the best year of his career. I think it was twenty eighteen and he had the knee thing going on, and I was like, oh, you know, like this is the thing with power is that it's a fleeting skill, like you know, like youth is always going to be rewarded when your game is centered around power and driving. And that's I think we've seen it with like players over the last twenty years. You see it like you can only be at the top of the strokes gained off the tea mountain for so long, and Dustin Johnson was the guy at the top of the strokes gained off the tea mountain for a very long time. And the reality is it's like there's younger, faster guys now on tour, and like DJ is not going to be a perennial top three off the tea guy forever. And I think that's where like that's you know, a dip to twentieth or eighteenth, and that it is the difference between him being a top five player and a top twenty player.

01:04:00
Speaker 3: And I'll give him a lot of credit. He really has cleaned up some parts of his game, like his wedge play has come such a long way, and he is a very good putter. But I think that's where I I don't have real strong reasons to question his motivation, but those are skills that you have to be really grinding to keep sharp. He's thirty seven, maybe he's Maybe he's fully motivated, you know, to keep the putting sharp. But when I see really bad driving accuracy, I wonder what twenty twenty two is gonna look like for Dustin and how motivated he is. But I will say I think he's one of the most I think he gets a bad rap for his mental people call him. The people say he's dumb, and I think he's one of the smartest athletes in the world at being an athlete.

01:04:43
Speaker 2: I think, like competitively, he's a genius and I.

01:04:46
Speaker 3: Will never forget. There was no Laying Up podcast with Danielle Kang years ago, and she talked about going into Pinehurst since the Men had just played. She has a relationship with Dustin Johnson called him to ad questions about it, and he could go whole by whole, every single spot you'd want to miss, apparently like photographic memory, which which made a ton of sense to me. The Dustin Johnson's that.

01:05:11
Speaker 2: Way definitely one of the most misunderstood athletes of all time, because it's it's just like you don't see the competitiveness in golf the way you see it in other sports, and you don't see like necessarily the brilliance. The brilliance is like his has been masked by the driving distance and the just that skill that was like, you know, he was a unicorn of ten years ago. He was the freak of nature. You know, he's not the freak of nature anymore. But like you know, also like the way he's improved every aspect of his game is kind of insane, Like he's he's gone from being like kind of a one trick pony to one of the most well rounded players on tour.

01:05:51
Speaker 3: No, yeah, I completely agree, And I don't think you need any other examples of his mental toughness other than watching him walk off the green at Chambers Bay. Like that will always stick with me. So I get when I say, when I say regress, I think.

01:06:03
Speaker 2: Chambers Bay, Pebble Beach.

01:06:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, And when I say regress, I think I'm talking about being ranked third in the world. Like a year from now, will he be ranked third in the world.

01:06:14
Speaker 4: I doubt that. But this is not a knock on his talent, all.

01:06:18
Speaker 2: Right, we're gonna cut it here. I think we're gonna have you back pretty regularly this year and talking all things golf and analytics and what's going on on the tour. So, Joseph, where can people find more of your work?

01:06:33
Speaker 4: Yeah?

01:06:33
Speaker 3: I can be found on my substack, which is Finding the Edge dot substack dot com. Or you can connect with me on Twitter at Joseph Lamanna. That's l A m A g n A.

01:06:46
Speaker 4: So either one of those spots is good.

01:06:48
Speaker 3: Trying to get a little more Twitter active this year, so feel free to engage.

01:06:53
Speaker 2: Trying to get more active on the wasteland. You know, I'm trying to get less active. You're trying to get more active.

01:07:01
Speaker 3: That's good to hear that you're thinking about getting less active because I heard they increase the PIP money for next year. So if I have less competition, that's excellent.

01:07:10
Speaker 2: All right, Well we'll talk to you, soud and thanks for coming on. Highly recommend Joseph's work. I read it every week. Go check out his substack and follow him on Twitter.

01:07:20
Speaker 4: Thanks Andy, thanks for having me