Late-Round Perspectives: Theo Gremminger

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Speaker 1: Theo Greminger is the director of content at Player Profiler, where he produces both articles and podcasts. He does some work with Fantasy Points in the Athletic too. He's an accomplished high stakes player, a long islander, and a dad. These are his Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by Underdog. Underdog is the easiest place to play fantasy sports, and they give you a ton of different games and contests to choose from each week. If you think drafting is over because the season started, you'd be wrong. You can draft teams over there each week in literal minutes right now. If you sign up an Underdog with promo code Late Round, you not only get a deposit offer of up to one thousand dollars, but you also get access to my rest of season rankings. Those will be emailed to you once you sign up. But when you sign up, you have to use promo code late Round. Head to Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the app to do so.

00:01:04
Speaker 2: Again.

00:01:05
Speaker 1: That's promo code Late Round. Now back to the show. I mean so much to talk about. I'm sitting here. I'm like, I'm like crossing my fingers that I don't lose power during this this recording because we I'm in Charlotte, North Carolina, so we're not getting hit by the hurricane the same way that folks in Florida are getting hit by the hurricane. But there is just like constant rain. We've had thunderstorms for like every night for the last three days. So hopefully fingers crossed, you know, technology wise, everything's everything's good to go.

00:01:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, Mother Nature thrown you for a curve, you know, right before Thursday night football, so yeah, it's yeah, you never know in this business exactly.

00:01:39
Speaker 2: And I always like the caveat.

00:01:41
Speaker 1: I always like the caveat that we are recording this before Thursday night. So hopefully the Molik Neighbors train, you know, keeps on keeps on rolling ahead, and once people you know are listening to this, hopefully you know, Neighbors has some fantasy points for you on Friday, because I know both you and I have been have been in on Neighbors this year.

00:01:58
Speaker 3: All summer long. We were singing the praise of Molik Neighbors. I said during the summer that we're gonna have two rookie wide receiver ones, and yeah, Milik Neighbors is currently the wide receiver one overall, and it's the game within the game. You know, not to talk too much Thursday when this is airing after Thursday. But the Melik Neighbors, Trayvon Diggs trash talk all summer long now comes into fruition. Dallas defense not looking nearly where they were last year either. This is like I live on Long Island and there is a lot of hope from Giants fans that they can win this game out right tonight. So yeah, Milik Neighbors gives hope to an entire community.

00:02:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it, man, I love it. He goes hope to a lot of dead fantasy teams too.

00:02:38
Speaker 3: One hundred percent. It's the Dynasty. Dynasty is funny this year. I wrote this this week. I'm doing this Dynasty article on Fantasy Points where I kind of do stock up stock down, and you could literally have Molik Neighbors stock up every week. But it's funny that a lot of people go into the Dynasty season with Jaden Daniels Malik Neighbors on their team, meaning that they had one of the first picks in a super flexed rookie draft, and you might walk into the season thinking, you know, I'm still rebuilding now. Suddenly these teams are like three and zero, and some of the teams that had these older veterans are zero to three. So the dichotomy of Dynasty has flipped upside down so quickly because of just how impactful these rookies are.

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Speaker 1: I think my biggest learning as a Dynasty player. I've been playing Dynasty for probably a decade or so now, and I think though, like once I started really modeling rookies and like getting better at rookie analysis is when my game kind of went to the next level, just from like an evaluation standpoint and feeling better about the picks that I was getting and stuff like that, and then also understanding, you know, the market side of things and how to just get value.

00:03:40
Speaker 2: On your team.

00:03:40
Speaker 1: But I think one of the most overrated things in Dynasty in general has to be you know, you going after veteran assets because you think that your team is in when now mode, when oftentimes, not only is there variants in a typical playoff, but oftentimes when you re like I've had teams last year, I had a team that I completely rebuilt and I won the championship just because you hit on I mean, I literally had like one of the most like it was just one of those drafts whereas things just went really really well, you know, Laporta, Gibbs, Jaden Reid, all of that just kind of hit at the right time. But I think that people over state and then understate the opposite. You know, you don't have to be in a rebuild for that long of a period of time.

00:04:18
Speaker 3: I think that's a great, a great way of looking at it. And I think that there's been some very not to get too Dynasty focused for the show, but there's been a strong argument to just being sort of agnostic to your build and continue to add young talent and ascending talent. You're gonna be better off over the years. And if you think of the players that we that we think of as like guys that are peeking towards the end of the season, guys who get better as the season moves along, Oftentimes the guys that are like league winners in the Fantasy football playoffs are those young players. It's not necessarily like a like a Travis Kelcey or Mike Evans going nuts for you in the final week in the season. So it's yeah, I agree with you. I think taking on too many older assets is just not the right way to play it. And then if it doesn't go your way, nobody wants to buy those guys unless they're really really hitting. It's sort of like dead weight if it's not going your way.

00:05:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that people often just try too hard to build super teams when which is great, like you should build super teams, but super teams are not really like, in my opinion, it shouldn't be in a one year window super team. It should be a super team that you built through the years that is also competitive every single year and is able to squeak into the playoffs and then you let variants kind of take the wheel to some degree in the playoffs because we know that's what happens in fantasy football, and then you win championships that way because too often, Look, my biggest mistakes in Dynasty have one million percent been either trading like a late second for some older wide out, or running someone who just does who's in the wrong side of his age curve right, or trading a younger asset who isn't as proven for that kind of player as well. It's just been a consistently you know That's that's been my demise in some of my leagues. I would have massively amazing teams if I would have just never done that, you know, a handful of years ago before my brain started thinking about this stuff a little bit differently.

00:06:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, patients is definitely a virtue and and it's it's difficult when you see that prize in front of your face, but yeah, sometimes you got to have like a nice balance with it. With dynasty, that's why Dynasty's just so much fun.

00:06:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed, man, agreed.

00:06:21
Speaker 1: So look, I want to start this show off and I do this with with basically every guest, but I want to know more about you, your background, you know how you cause you you and I have I mean, we've known each other for a decent amount of time now because we've done shows and stuff in the past. But you've really gone and taken your content game to the next level over the last handful of years. So I just want to hear about, like what got you into Fantasy football and then what got you more into the content game and what made that you know what in your brain sort of made that switch for you.

00:06:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I really appreciate that, and I think a lot of people say that, you know, I'm a player first, but I really was a player first. I had some success in NFFC where I was playing high stakes fantasy, and I had one year that was going very very well, and throughout the years, like we had this conversation about how more and more people are covering high stakes content and more and more people are sort of delving into it because it's you want to test test your might in places like f FPC, NFFC. But I actually got reached out on Twitter by Ryan Lopes and Ryan Lops. A lot of people might not know who that is, but Matt Kelly and Nate Liss. At the time, it was those two with Ryan Lopes as like the three big people at Player Profiler, and he was doing the Breakout Finder and Player Profiler and he's like, hey, do you want to do some content? And I had just sort of like a obsessive personality with fantasy football, and I said sure, And then it just sort of took and I started doing written content for Player Profiler and it did, It did fairly well, and then some people reach out to me if seen and if I wanted the podcast, and I did, and then the podcasting started took off, and you get the itch to kind of create more content. You feel like you're helping people. And then at Player Profiler, they sort of kept elevating me to the point where I'm director of Content, and then I've had an opportunity to do cool stuff with other companies. I'm doing some stuff with Fantasy Points and also writing a weekly article with The Athletic. I'm doing some stuff with the guys at Dynasty Trades in five and Andrew Cooper. So I'm sort of like I'm wearing a lot of hats right now, but it's sort of like a I really enjoy it. I enjoy creating the content, and I do like the idea of helping people, helping people win money. That's and I want to consume the content that I would like to actually read. You know, you're you're definitely a big influence of mine. You know, before we even knew each other, I was listening to your content about your your clarity with things, how you make things actionable, and you sort of lay out the reasoning behind it, and I think I do a pretty good job with that. So it's just sort of been one of those things in life where things fall in your lap and you take to them and I'm very passionate about it, and you know, hopefully people are enjoying it, but it's it's just one of those things where it just sort of happened. I wasn't going into it looking to do this at the level that I'm doing it, but it just was something where it fit and it fit my personality and sort of like, you have to be a little bit obsessive in this. And I'll give you a big hat tip because for years you've been dropping like your your transactions, which is essentially you're giving people waiver Wire advice. And I talked to John Dagel a lot, and there's a few content creators who just don't get away from like waiver Wire type advice. Like that's it's tough, and I've been doing writing the waiver Wire column for years. But you have to be a little bit obsessive with it. But there's nothing better than when you give somebody that move and like you're Isaiah Pacheco telling people to draft him as a rookie, You'll wear that hat forever. And all these nasty managers, oh you, oh you a beer or a steak dinner JJ, And I'd like to think with the waiver wire that my whole thing is trying to be a week ahead and a lot of people I've helped them over the year. So that's sort of it. It's a long, convoluted story, but here we are.

00:10:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, it's it's also cool, Like I remember when I first started doing a lot of the content stuff, this is you know, back in twenty eleven, twenty twelve or so, Like the there was a very clear divide between people like myself who at the time, I wasn't even playing any high stakes. I wasn't playing you know, I was. I was twenty three years old, twenty four years old, and not really you know, I didn't I didn't have the disposable income to just go and do that, and I was just trying to make it as a content creator within fantasy football. But there was a very, very big divide and it continued for a handful of years between high stakes folks and folks who were playing for whether a living or not, but playing a lot right and playing for a lot of money, versus people who are in the content space who may or may not have been involved in some of those high stakes leagues, and it's been nice that it's those those worlds have merged a lot more over the you know, you look at like Nelson or you look you know, there's there's a lot of folks who are doing content now who are also high stakes players. And it's it's cool though to see like like you know, and I'm you know, someone like me, I'm playing more high stakes than I did before, and so I get to see that world a little bit more. You get to see this world a little bit more, and I think there's just a natural appreciation at the end of the day for what either side does. Like one of the things that I always would would defend was when people said would say, oh, well, this content creator doesn't have any skin in the game. And my thing was always my pushback, especially when I didn't have much skin in the game or as much skin in the game, was always like, okay, but my advice at the end of the day that I'm giving to people really dictates how many people are going to continue to listen and go to my content, Like there's there's skin in the game. From that perspective, now, is it as dramatic when it's not even my full time job yet and it's not you know, no, it's not as big of a deal, but there is still that component to it to some degree. Have you what I'm getting at is, have you noticed like a different kind of pressure with the content that you do versus the gaming that you would play.

00:11:58
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think for me, when I was doing podcasting with like Goat District and doing some of these shows that were a little bit more niche, that was something where I could kind of get away with it. I do think that nowadays I'll get into drafts where people know the players I'm on. That's a whole nother subject, but I'm glad you brought up skin in the game. I think that was sort of like a loaded term. And there's some people I really respect that have strong opinions on both sides of this. I'm of the opinion that there's value added from from people that don't play high stakes at all that are providing, you know, the research side. The really a lot of the really strong analytical takes on players. You never see those guys in some of these NFC FFPC drafts, but it's still an important part of the process. Whereas there's some some players don't necessarily adhere to that, but we just want to hear about like the players they're drafting because they've had success over the years. So I do think that that there's a couple of reasons why you're seeing a little bit more of like the merging of the cultures and everything sort of coming together. Forty Fantasy football is a lot larger now than it was in twenty twelve, so people really I feel like they want to test themselves a little bit. And then I think it's really underdog where underdog people, even though it's low stakes, people got into the habit of playing for such money because you'd have one hundred teams here and there, whereas the next step up would be, hey, a one three hundred and fifty dollars entry into an FPC on f FPC or something like that. So I just think it's the more sharp voices we have in this industry, providing actionable content while being kind of respectful to one another. I think that's that's going to make everybody better at fantasy It's not necessarily one dogmatic approach rather than the other. It sort of would be like for me, it's no different than somebody saying JJ. The only smart way to draft is hero RB. The only smart way to draft is zero RB. The only smart way to draft is the drafter, tight and early. Like, you can pull off any strategy and any sort of content can help you if you're listening to the right things and and not and focusing on the correct things. Yeah.

00:14:03
Speaker 1: I've always also seen it as sort of like a player and coach relationship from the standpoint of like, not all coaches were good players or or would be good players. You know, plenty of them were not great players, but they're you know, Kyle Shanahan's a brilliant offensive mind and a brilliant football mind, and Mike McDaniel and all these all these guys.

00:14:21
Speaker 2: Who are great at what they do.

00:14:23
Speaker 1: Those are sort of like the content creators, if you will, right, And whereas the players themselves, there's the Patrick Mahomes who may or may not be able to coach at the you know, after he retires, Like, we have no idea. I think that it just comes down to people bringing different skill sets to the table, and you know, at least being open minded and welcoming is the most important thing at the end of the day.

00:14:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, one hundred percent being dismissive of either side is sort of the wrong way to do it, but you nailed it. It's the it's the kind of a respect level for for other people's content and their approaches.

00:14:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:14:53
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into some of this fantasy football stuff that we've seen so far this year, because it's very very to overreact after three weeks, but at the same time, we do still need to react. I think the biggest storyline so far and look, I have been like, like, I'm at the forefront of the l taking when it comes to tight ends this year, because you know, I was okay with going and grabbing, you know, in a non tight end premium league, grabbing these guys in the fourth to sixth round, more so in the fifth and sixth you know, because they were they were at a discount. We were typically seeing those kinds of players get drafted in the second and third And I'm saying to myself, Okay, historically we typically see at least a couple of them emerge and give us a good advantage over the rest of the position. But so far this year it has been more of a dumpster fire than I could even imagine. I mean, I would say that the outcome for tight ends right now is like a third percentile outcome, just just the way that that things have gone down. Do you have any theories as to why the elite tight ends just haven't shown up yet.

00:15:55
Speaker 3: I think that there's a combination of many things. I think with some of the elite sort of household name tight ends, like Travis Kelcey, those guys, maybe he was a little bit overrated. I think with Kelsey, the whole idea of basing his sample size on what we saw in the in the NFL playoffs and that high level of play and betting on Kansas City to take this big step forward with also Kelsey returning to form. One thing with Kelsey I think that we didn't talk about enough was his points per game average dropped from like eighteen and a half points per game in twenty twenty two down to fourteen and a half points per game, which people would say, well, that's still essentially leading the tight end position, but at the end of the day, it's an older player who lost several points per game. Mark Andrews, I don't think we put enough into the tightrope surgery when we saw it last year with Tony Pollard. But then certain things have just been poor luck, like at the end of the day David, we couldn't have capped a David and Joku getting hurt. We couldn't have projected Evan Ingram to get hurt in one warm ups, like and then now you know Trey McBride, who has all the metrics we want for a tight end one overall, is probably out this week with a concussion. Sam Laporte is an interesting one because the Jamison Williams breakout coincided with the reduced target share. Is that something that's going to last the entire year? I don't know, But now he's dealing with an ancle injury, so I think it's a lot of bad luck. And last year we did see the position produce a historically high number of two hundred point scorers without giving us like that massive massive player, So I don't know. For me, I think it's a combination of really really bad luck and also maybe overrating the tight end too, the low end tight end ones a little bit. But I do think that that we haven't seen the full story here. The season is only three weeks long. There's a couple of these guys showing us promise to get t J. Hawkinson coming back pretty soon, which obviously was a lower drafted player but might come and rescue some people. And I thought that there was some really positive signs with Jake Ferguson, and you know, Trey McBride when he comes back, he's me fine. But at the end of the day, we should have just all drafted brock Bauers, brock Bowers. Brock Bowers in every single draft would have felt good. So I think it's a number of things and not just one particular reason. And it also doesn't help that overall touchdown passes are down, which is touchdowns are obviously a driver of tight end scoring.

00:18:26
Speaker 2: I think that last.

00:18:27
Speaker 1: Point is really important is that the league so far this year, I don't think we can overstate how poor offenses have been and what that means to the fantasy football landscape, because theoretically, what it does is that it creates an even larger divide between the haves and have nots in fantasy football. Like if you have Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley and these guys who have been big producers to start this season, your teams are feeling and looking really really good. Right, But even if you have players who have been fine but not great, right, just a lineup with that where you look at your lineup, Like I have teams right now where I'm staring at my lineup. They're in like seventh or eighth place, and I'm staring at my lineup and I'm like, this team is.

00:19:07
Speaker 2: Like objectively good.

00:19:09
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on right now, like what it's because it just doesn't have that one dude, right, like that one player who is breaking fantasy football. And when you have that one player who's breaking fantasy football and the rest of the league is performing so poorly, it makes that one player look even better than what he otherwise would look, right, because you're not able to even come close to matching that kind of production at the tight end position. The fortunate side I think with the tight end stuff is that because of this high level trend of like offenses being so poor, at least we haven't seen like bottom tiered tight ends all of a sudden, you know, be superior. You Know, it's not like like sure Tyler Conklin had a great game last week. Last week from like a volume perspective all that kind of stuff, and you know, maybe he's like, I think he's a decent streamer this week, but we're we're not watching Tyler Conklin, you know, be a guy that we're ranking rest of season ahead of any of the elite tight ends. You know, we haven't had that true breakout yet. And I don't think that that read on the tight end position was necessarily wrong because a lot of us entering the year, we were like, oh, look the tight ends. Last year we were like, oh, there's this good rookie crop where we can throw the dart at Sam Laporta. You know, we can throw the dart at some of these guys that Dalton Kincaid, whoever, who might be able to be productive this year. I think a lot of us as analysts we looked or players, we just looked at the bottom tier tight ends after like a Bowers and Djoku that tier and god Art that tier, and we're like, why would we want to hitch our wagons to one of these guys, Like this is just a really really pitiful situation at tight end and none of them have really emerged yet either, right, So at least that's something that if one or two of these tight ends or a handful of these tight ends do start to perform as we thought entering the year, you are going to get that advantage in that edge as what we thought entering the season.

00:20:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I completely agree. And again, it's a long, long season. We don't know the win rates, and I think that being like too reactionary to what we've seen through three weeks is just not really helpful to anyone. And I'll also say that there's been an argument from some fantasy analysts that basically weeks one and two. I know Sigmund Bloom has said this a lot, that weeks one and two are sort of the new preseason because guys are being held out, guys are sitting. Certain NFL coaches just want to get through preseason without anybody getting hurt. And that's probably the smart way of thinking, especially with the seventeen game season that we really don't fully know until we've seen probably four or five weeks, is like what we used to see like after two or three weeks.

00:21:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's very fair. So speak of Mark Andrews in particular, do you think at this point, because I'm sure you've got questions about this. I've gotten questions about this. Is he just straight up droppable.

00:21:52
Speaker 3: I don't think you can drop them. I think that we have to look at like the so Tony Pollard has told people that he didn't really feel comfortable until like week eleven is when he felt like fully healed. I think that if you drop Mark Andrews, first of all, you're dropping a potentially large piece of one of the league's better offenses, and an offense that we saw sort of ramp up their productivity as the season went along last year. I mean, I think Mark Andrews. The way to play Mark Andrews is to have some patients put him on your bench this week. Probably. I know I'm gonna be using him on my bench this week to make sure that the snapshare and everything sort of is not where it was last week. And maybe last week was a, you know, a one off. I hope it's not a sign of things to come. There's a chance it could be, but I think it's just a testament in patience with Mark Andrews. I don't think that he forgot how to play football, and I don't think that Todd Mucken is just fully phasing him out and I think that his overall health, the fact that he's not on the IR and he's out there playing a reduced snap share indicates to me that they'll ramp him up at some point. It's it's incredibly frustrated. It's somewhat concerning, But do not cut Mark Andrews. Just don't cut them.

00:23:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

00:23:07
Speaker 1: We also can't understate the game script that they had last week. Last week's game script was really really bizarre just in general against Dallas, and I know that that's not necessarily a great thing because it means that if they see that game script again, then we might have another Mark Andrews playing, you know, not like a third of their snaps and running four routes. It's not great, but I do think that there's at least that that we can latch onto and say, okay, if he's not one hundred percent, then this could be the reason why they're not throwing him out there to run block, right, because why would they in a game script you know like that.

00:23:39
Speaker 2: Are there are there any under the radar guys?

00:23:41
Speaker 1: I know I mentioned that we haven't seen really any of these like tight End two's that we drafted or you know guys that were drafted after that that Goddard range. Are there any under the radar tight ends that that you think should be rostered at a higher rateer that people should at least have their eye on.

00:23:56
Speaker 3: Well, I think a lot of people are on Eric all right now on as a player Cincinnati might ramp up as the season goes. I do think that's one where you're gonna have to be patient with. So for guys that are sort of right now maybe a little bit underrated, I do think that there's an argument that the Jets offense is sort of becoming self aware with what they are. And there were some increases in terms of usage last week with Tyler Conklin that coincided with his strong performance, But he had a thirty two percent air yard share and a seventeen point one percent target share. Those numbers were significantly higher than we saw in weeks one and two. And I think that this whole double headed monster at running back, where with Braylan Allen working in, might coincide with a little bit more success out of Tyler Conklin. So I do think he's a player that you can get by with. I'm a little bit interested in rostering zach Ertz in some places the metrics are strong, and I just think this Jaden Daniels offense it could take off. And then, obviously I think that if TJ. Hawkins, if anyone in your league is getting frustrated by rostering a player that's on the ir and it might they're not necessarily patient enough to wait two weeks, three weeks, however long it takes for t J. Hawkins to get back on a field. The whole argument with Hawkinson was not only that you weren't going to have him to start the year, but it was also that his quarterback play was going to be poor relative to what he's had previously in his career. Now you have Sam Darnold as a guy who has been a real dynasty winner. I think he's earned himself a starting job long term, and he's leading the NFL in touchdown passes. So for me, I think TJ. Hawkinson is a really underrated asset to go out and try to acquire. But Conklin, for me, I think he's just the sort of kind of guy that can get you by that doesn't cost hardly anything. And then short term, just this week in particular, if Trey McBride misses, I think as a complete dart throw at the position. Elijah Higgins is interesting because you're talking about a big time athlete, a converted wide receiver, a little bit smaller side tight end, but like a four five, four forty guy, and he's going to get a one week start against Washington, a team that we know can get beat in the secondary. So Arizona Washington is actually one of the games we have to circle this week as a big source of potential fantasy points. And I think if you're chasing that game, using guys like Higgins, using guys like Michael Wilson is a great way to play it on the short term basis.

00:26:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that that call a lot converted wide out.

00:26:28
Speaker 1: I remember doing his prospecting stuff when he came out a couple of years ago, and it was very obvious that he needed to play tight end, just given the size and given given we were working with. But they've used him a little bit, you know, whenever, whenever McBride's been been out, they I saw him, you know, getting some run last week.

00:26:41
Speaker 2: So that's a good call out.

00:26:42
Speaker 1: And then the other thing with Conklin that I want to throw out there is you know, we saw that uptick that that that just nice little increase in like route participation this past week, like he was getting a little bit more usage. He's now first in the NFL in route participation at tight end, which is pretty wild. But on top of that, Garrett Wilson was someone who, like Garrett Wilson on paper, I actually want to throw this to you too. This is just off the cuff because I like to ask guests about some of the fifteen transactions stuff that I talk about. Garrett Wilson's a really interesting case right now because if you look at what he's done versus his peripherals, it's an obvious buy right because you're like, Okay, it's Garrett Wilson. Great target share production hasn't been there yet, but it's Garrett Wilson. And then you look at their upcoming schedule and it's just like crazy cornerback matchup after crazy cornerback matchup. I think that plays in the conklin a little bit as well and helping him get a higher target share. I think that there's a reason though, with Garrett Wilson to say, Okay, I need help right now. Maybe I sell Garrett Wilson on an off chance that someone in my league is reading up on a lot of analysts saying by Garret Wilson, by Garrett Wilson because of the peripherals and what his actual production was. But if you're struggling right now, you need that w he might be more of a cell. But if you're in the opposite camp and you can kind of wait it out a little bit, he's gonna be like a second half of the year winner just based on the schedule. Is that a bad way of looking at it?

00:28:08
Speaker 3: Do you think? No? I don't. I think Garrett Wilson's actually a player. You can play different ways right now. I think if the Garrett Wilson manager is a little bit frustrated at seeing like Alan Lazard with three touchdown catches and just maybe a little bit frustrated about where they had to draft Garrett Wilson, he could be a potential by low. You did make a great point on the upcoming matchups, and also that Mike Williams is now out there on the field, and we've seen that Aaron Rodgers is willing to use Alan Lazard on sort of like high value end zone looks. Some deep balls, Like, there's some things out there that are a little bit troubling with Garrett Wilson. I think in name, he's sort of a he's in name and in draft capital he's sort of this high end wide receiver one, but in reality he might be more of like a locked in wide receiver two. At the end of the day. I actually like the idea of if you're trying to teer up, to use a dynasty term, if you're trying to tear up, Garrett Wilson's a perfect player to sort of match with a running back or another wide receiver and maybe tier up to a wide receiver like a Nico Collins that has a little bit more of a clear path to giving you like that alpha alpha season. So I think Garret Wilson, it's kind of league specific, but just understand what you have in Garrett Wilson. I don't think we're going to get that Garrett Wilson season that we were drafting where it was sort of like the Garrett Wilson or AJ Brown or do I take like Saquon here at the end of the first round. I don't think that was necessarily the best process. And Rogers has shown that he's willing to use different players. He's certainly targeting Brice Holid at a high rate, and we've seen seven targets for Braylon Allen over the last two weeks, so he's using both running backs consistently. That also sort of caps Garrett Wilson a little bit. Yeah.

00:29:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're leading the league in a running back target here right now. That's a good call out. Let's move on to the Colts passing attack. Anthony Richardson, I mean, probably the worst passer in football to start the season, at least one of the top top three worst. So things are not going well for this Colt's passing attack. Do you have any hope that things will turn around or are you nervous that Anthony Richardson just is not him?

00:30:22
Speaker 3: Well, I'm very nervous, more so for Richardson in terms of his lack of rushing production and his lack of lack of like design runs that we're seeing from Indianapolis. I think that for me is way more concerning. One thing with Anthony Richardson is he will push the ball downfield. So I think we'll see some opportunities for guys that we've already seen with Alec Pierce. I think it sort of bodes well for ad and I Mitchell, if you want to kind of roster one of these Colts wide receivers. There's some strong metrics with adenized separation skills, and I think that the team might ramp him up as a younger wide receiver they used the second round pick on. But for me, the probably the worst fit in fantasy right right now in terms of a skill position player that we put strong draft capital into, is Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman last year gives us one hundred and fifty plus target season, catches one hundred plus balls, has eleven hundred and fifty receiving yards, and JJ if he gets seventy five percent of that at this point, then that's sort of a win. Based on what we've seen early in the year. He's still getting a very similar target share, but are high target share in this offense is kind of worthless. Michael Pittman's the one that I'm most concerned of. I'm willing to sell Michael Pittman low on my redraft teams and sort of just try to get out of this situation. I do think with Anthony Richardson. There's going to come to be a point where there has to be some self scouting from Indianapolis and say what can work for us, and using this quarterback, you know, as a as a runner, is going to threaten the opposing defense a little bit more than we saw like last week. I do also think what's interesting is one thing that we didn't necessarily hear a lot in the preseason was Anthony Richardson was being drafted around let's call him like QB six range. However your draft went QB six, seven eight in that premium mid range QB one range, and then Caleb Williams was sort of like one of the highest drafted QB two's who sort of touched low end QB one range at the end of the summer. Those two guys are the youngest two starting quarterbacks in football, and they've they've had really really slow starts. So that's sort of one thing where the inexperienced the youth. The sample size for Anthony Richardson last year was really small and really promising, and we just haven't seen it this year. But I do think Anthony Richardson's won where I've heard some people saying we're gonna see Joe Flacco and all that kind of stuff. I don't think so. I think they'll ramp him up a little bit. It's the franchise. I'd be really surprised if they benched him for performance reasons.

00:32:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree those kinds of things, at least not in the short term or anything that we should be worried about, like the idiot.

00:33:00
Speaker 2: And you're right.

00:33:01
Speaker 1: I mean, if I talked about this on my show earlier this week, but it's like, if you look at his rushing production versus a Daniels versus lit Lamar, it's just not even close. I mean, he's not run He's running the ball half as much as they are. And rich Reebar had a great tweet that I also referenced on the show where Anthony Richardson his pressure to scramble rate is horrible. Like when he's pressured, he's not just taking off and running, which is what you would expect for a guy who's athletic as he is. He's sitting in the pocket longer than guys like Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers, which is just not a recipe for success for a player like that at all.

00:33:34
Speaker 3: It's just wild, my numbing, and I love that you brought up the Jaden Daniels just as like a to go off on a sidebar. Jaden Daniels right now QB two overall, But we haven't seen that sort of rushing spike week for Jaden Daniels which we know he's capable of, which is could be coming as soon as this week. I mean, there's gonna be a game where Jayden Daniels goes for one hundred plus rushing yards. He's just so efficient and looks so good every opportunity has So that's sort of what we expected with Richardson as as a runner. So it's really weird. I don't know if that's something that they've emphasized in Indianapolis, him trying to stay in the pocket a little bit more, or if it's something where he's still getting over coming back from a major injury and maybe it's a little a little more less hesitant to get outside the pocket and just run naturally. So those things all enter your mind when you see the sort of struggles from a guy that we believed was very, very talented.

00:34:25
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be really interesting this weekend because they get the Steelers, and you know they're gonna see so much pressure.

00:34:31
Speaker 2: You know, TJ.

00:34:32
Speaker 1: Watt's gonna be getting to him, and so you know, as a result of that, it's gonna be just interesting to see if he ends up escaping the pocket a little bit more or if they're just gonna continue going down the path they're going down, which I think at this point, given the sample size that we've seen, he's made like, look, he's made arguably the best throw of the season when he when he had that like scramble top, it was just absurd, right, So we've seen that like individual single throw upside, which we've seen at times even from like a Justin Field. Justin Field said that one they got called back thrown down the field at George Pickens earlier this year, and like, we see that, but it has to be way way more consistent than it has been for Anthony Richardson. I think they just need to let him loose a little bit and then hopefully if they do that, he will score more Fantasy points if they do that. But it's just a matter of you know, when is that really going to happen at the end of the day.

00:35:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I hope it happens sooner and later. But Pittsburgh is certainly not the defense that we want to bet on it to. I mean, they might have the best defense in football right now, that's just a scary, scary defense.

00:35:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's go. Let's talk about another quarterback.

00:35:36
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton gets his first start last week, lights up the Raiders. Are you buying or selling that performance and maybe even talk a little bit about what that might do for the rest of that Carolina offense.

00:35:47
Speaker 3: I think you're you're absolutely buying it. I think that this is the Dave Canalis offense that we were sort of promised. Dave Canalis as this reputation as a as a quarterback whisperer, He's also sort of been the ADP whisperer. You think about some of the biggest wins we had last year in ADP where Mike Evans and Rashad White that happened under Dave Canalis, and I certainly don't see why it can't happen in Carolina with some functional quarterback play. And what's interesting is a great deal of the Andy Dalton production happened in the first half. This could have been an even bigger game everybody's still use the stat it's the only quarterback this year to give us a three hundred passing yard game and a three touchdown game combined. Andy Dalton was terrific. And I think that you feel most confident in Deontay Johnson right now, where Deontay Johnson put up like a career high this week, and Deontay Johnson, I think is a locked in, high end wide receiver two type player, and it's sort of projecting like we did last year with Mike Evans, where once in a Dave Canalis offense, we have the clear wide receiver one, a hyper targeted player who's going to get double digit targets every week. I think we can bank on fantasy football production. Short term, you're feeling really strong about Chewba Hubbard, who gave you one hundred and fifty combined yards, gives you five catches a touchdown catch, and I think long term you're feeling really optimistic about what Jonathan Brooks can do for you over the second half of the season. Devil's advocate would be Chuba Hubbard's earned himself touches, but I happen to be under the belief that it's going to be hard to not get Jonathan Brooks actively involved. He's that talented. They use that draft capital on him super flex wise. Andy Dalton's right in your lineup single quarterback No. And then the one player that I think will be interesting over the next few weeks with Adam Thielen Hurt Xavier Loget. Xavier Loguette was sort of a player that was polarizing for us to evaluate as a prospect. But now he's got a clear path to being on the field like the whole time, and he could be a full time wide receiver there with his athleticism profile. There's gonna be a couple of big weeks for Xavier get. He's gonna have every opportunity to help at least make you feel optimistic about his long term future in the NFL. So I'm feeling pretty strong about this Carolina offense. They put the offensive line, they put money into improving that offensive line in the preseason, and I think it was just a they looked bad because Bryce Young was like historically bad.

00:38:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that you're right.

00:38:18
Speaker 1: I mean, look, we have to obviously give it context that they played the Raiders last week and it wasn't a very inspired performance from Vegas. But even still, I think that we can look at our you know, all the things that you talked about, all of this, like evidence about Dave Canalis and what he's done with his offenses in the past. You know, like a lot of us were high on Deontay Johnson entering the season because of that, and because of Deontay Johnson the player, Like the surroundings aren't that horrific for for Andy Dalton and I talked about this in my mailbag, But uh, with with Jonathan Brooks, even if Chewba Hubbard is somewhat involved, right, that means that that your worst case scenario with Brooks at this moment, like from a projection standpoint, is that when he's healthy, he's the one A in that backfield, right, which is not an uncommon thing in today's game. We're seeing a lot of split backfields just in general. But you still have the upside of him being a bell cow, him being a true workhorse back there, and the cost to acquire right now probably is not significantly high. You know, I think that people are still a little scared off of the ACL I get all that, but I think that when you are going to buy a player to trade for a player, and you're you're just wearing cost benefit at the end of the day. To me, the cost isn't nearly significant enough given what that benefit might end up being.

00:39:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I agree with you. And it's sort of a you know, I do this podcast now with Scott Barrett, who I know you've podcast with Scott a number of times, but his sole upside wins championships. Like, we're not chasing that running back that can give you running back twenty four production. We're chasing that guy who can give you league winning production. And the cost versus the potential benefit to your roster. It's hard to find players like that. And I think that the that the really promising thing for Boks is Brooks is such a strong receiving prospect where he's really a two way back, and we saw it last week with Cuba. Like the rushing yardage from Cuba is nice, but to see Cuba get you fifty five plus receiving yards and a touchdown, that's really the thing you want to hang your hat on. He's Dave canalis Is. I mean, I just can't get over the fact of how how impactful some of those picks were for Tampa last year, and let alone he had Baker Mayfield finishes QB eleven last year, no one, no one had that. So yeah, I'm I'm bullish on this. Whether or not it was the Raiders, Uh, they still completely put it on. The Raiders did exactly what you want to see against a kind of poor defense. So I'm bullish on this one moving forward.

00:40:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, me too. It's crazy that we are bullish on it.

00:40:44
Speaker 3: Any the red right DA saving Deontay Johnson fantasy manager seasons, we would have thought, yeah, absolutely, thank god.

00:40:55
Speaker 1: So speaking of some of these backfields, you know you mentioned kind of chasing upside. I've talked plenty about ambiguous backfields, in particular when we're drafting and instead of getting the standalone running backs in the middle rounds and in the late rounds, look at some of these guys who are in these muddy backfields because situationally, it's probably a decent situation and then there's always a chance that they emerge. But'll at least give you some production now. But that being said, look, it hasn't been the best year so far with some of the more ambiguous backfields. Has been a little bit better than normal for some of the RB twos, you know, like an Aaron Jones type and James Connor type, Like those guys have been really really strong, Alvin Kamara, what have you. And it was a weird different year for the running back dead zone. I wrote about that in my draft guide. I sent an email blast about that too, But I was still obviously going after some of these ambiguous backfields. Now you look at two of them in particular. You know, you have Tennessee, you have Cincinnati, you know where you know we kind of have seen a one a emerge of that group. But do you think that there's any any of these ambiguous backfields, whether it is Tennessee or Cincinnati where the current RB one that we see right now, whether it's Zach Moss, Tony Pollard or Naji Harrett whoever, that you could see the RB two overtaking them as the season goes on.

00:42:12
Speaker 3: I feel way less optimistic on it as I did in sort of the preseason where Chase Brown and Taija Spears were sort of the kind of profiles that I like to chase the younger, high value touchbacks. But Cincinnati has really I mean Chase Brown in terms of his opportunities in terms of his usage. I'm actually surprised because we had a lot of positive buzz in the preseason with Brown, all the reports that he's working with the first team offense, and so far it's been like all Zack Moss. It comes down to does Cincinnati want to work in more Chase Brown, do they think that this offense needs a change, and do they want to kind of have potential big plays out there. I think they just trust Zach Moss a lot more so, way less optimistic on Chase Brown than I was before. I do think he's a solid receiver, but he only has five catches all year, so it's really hard to hang our hat on anything there. Ty Shay and Tony Pollard, to me, it's another backfield where I think Tony Pollard could break down. But also any offense quarterback by Will Levis right now, how much real value is there in that backfield. So these are certainly backfields where I'm not like actively looking to acquire either side. It's just sort of uninspiring backfields to me right now. I think there's obviously more value in Cincinnati that's a functional offense. So if you really really want to buy low on Chase Brown. I can see it. But for me, I think that the more appropriate move, the way to play this situation would be actually buying Zach Moss, knowing what you're getting, even if it means short term utility. A lot of teams that were like, here AREB builds. You can get by with Zach Moss in your RB two spot unless he fully falters, that job is his right now.

00:43:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think that's a bad idea, you know, just given the fact that, like sometimes what we see is just the reality. And look, there was always the downside with Chase Brown. Of he wasn't much of a pass protector. That was always a big question mark. He wasn't playing third downs and such even last year. And so yeah, I mean like that this was an outcome. We knew this was an outcome. But to me objectively, when you watch Chase Brown versus Zach Moss, one of them gives you more juice, right, And it's very clearly Chase Brown. It's just a matter of, like you said, what are these coaches looking for? Are they looking for a reliable guy who is better in pass protection?

00:44:35
Speaker 2: Is gonna just get you? Generally?

00:44:38
Speaker 1: What you need to just be a replacement level player, that's Moss. But if you want a little bit more upside, that's Brown. When it comes to Tennessee, the Tennessee stuff is kind of interesting to me because they I talked about this in my early season schedule analysis episode that I did in late July and August. But Tennessee had a brutal and so I mean they have a brutal schedule to kind of open up the season just in general in terms of the defenses that they're facing. And so I'm I'm cautiously optimistic that they can be better from like a fantasy perspective because the schedule might the schedule will open up a little bit in the second half of the season. And then with Taja Spears, you know, he has been banged up, you know, if you want to, if you want to look at him semi optimistically, and when he's healthy, he's been playing their passing downs like he's been playing the same role that he effectively played last year when Derek Henry was in that backfield, And to me, Tony Pollard is not Dereck Henry, you know, on early downs and playing that role. So I might be a little bit more optimistic still about Spears, but I worry more about the offensive environment that he's in, you know, versus the one that a player like Chase Brown would be in. Like like Chase Brown more upside than all of them, just because of what he can do is explosiveness and the offense that he's in. But Spears is kind of interesting in a full PPR format just because you know, he's still getting some of those looks. He's been a little bit banged up, and you know, look, Brian Callahan every week comes out and says, I want this to be a fifty to fifty thing in the backfield. It's just that you know, Spears hasn't been able to stay healthy and be out there.

00:46:05
Speaker 3: Well. I think that this is a really big week for the Tennessee Backs in general, based on what we've seen out of Miami the last two weeks where James Cook, I mean, probably the easiest multi touchdown game you're ever gonna see, and then we saw Zach Charbonney have that extremely strong performance as well. So for me, this is like, this is a big game for Tennessee in general. The Tennessee defense I think is a start. I think you're playing your Titans. If they can't beat this Miami team right now with their struggle as at quarterback, they've got major problems. So this could be sort of a get right game for that Tennessee running backfield, and really we'll see them featured this week.

00:46:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really great call. That's a really good point. Bucky Irving's banged up right now. At the time of this recording, we have no idea if he's gonna play or not. It sounds like like he says that he's fine, he's gonna play, but he hasn't been practicing as much. Whatever, let's forget about the injury. Do you think there's a realistic chance that he takes over this Buccaneers back field? And my second question to this is would you rather have someone like Bucky Irving on your roster or someone like Braylan Allen on your roster?

00:47:09
Speaker 3: That's such a great question, And again this goes back to like waiver wire content where you've been talking about these guys for weeks and now they're finally rostered, so it's like which one would you rather. It's a fun conversation to have, But just back to Bucky Irving. I saw the Todd Bowles where coach speak. Index sort of tweeted it out and everybody saw Todd Bowles saying, you know, Bucky's been successful in some runs. Rashad White hasn't, but we're still going to use both backs, and I get that. I think that with Bucky Irving, it's to qualify what a takeover would be for him. I think if he can earn like a fifty five percent of the touches, sixty percent of the touches, that's going to be more than good enough for him. And I think that still is a realistic outcome. Todd Bowles is not burying his veteran running back. But at the end of the day, a lot of their numbers are very very skewed. Game one, they completely annihilate Washington, but if we take that game out. The Detroit game, they scored twenty points and we sort of didn't really care because they won. It was sort of like Baker Mayfield making these great plays the end of the game with his legs, Like how cool is that they go to two and zero. But I think the Denver game could be a real wake up call for this offense. Denver completely handled them, and at the end of the day, Bucky Irving is a much more efficient runner in this offense. And it's not even close. If you took away Rashad White's fifteen yard run that he had this year, then he's a sub two yards per carry player, And if you take away Bucky Irving's two thirty yard rushes, then he's still over four yards per carry. And Rashad White has sort of gotten by for us in fantasy with his ability as a receiver, and by all accounts, he's a good pass blocker, he's a big back and can catch balls. But we know Bucky Irving can do that and he's a dynamic receiver because we saw it last year in college and that was sort of his mo was that he's going to come in this league and be a really strong pass catcher. So for me, like Todd Bowles, can say whatever he wants, but at the end of the day, if a healthy Bucky Irving is giving them a better chance to win at least getting him more touches, that I think we're going to see it go in that direction. So I'm very optimistic on Bucky Irving if he's still available in your league. I would go get him again. We don't know the severity of how banged up he is, but it does sound like to me he will play this week. But getting back to Braylan Allen versus Bucky Irving, if we're searching for an upside outcome, I think it's probably Braylan Allen if the ability if Breese Hall went down, then I think Braylan Allen becomes. It's kind of scary to think about how highly he'd be ranked on the week, but he's been shockingly good as a receiver, and we saw the final year at Wisconsin the reception totals go up. It did seem like a little bit like it was a manufactured It wasn't like he was some natural pass catcher and they just found him open. It was like design catches for him. And I think it was probably some sort of a let's feature him in this role. We're trying to change our philosophy here at Wisconsin from the past. But he looks like a natural pass catcher out there. He's moves better than you to anticipate a two hundred and forty pounds back would move. He's twenty years old and he has the trust of Aaron Rodgers, where Aaron Rodgers is a guy who sometimes phases some of these younger players out. They love Braylon Allen there, and if Breese Hall went down versus Rashad White going down, I think we would rank Braylan Allen as the higher the higher scoring back every week. And I think by a fair margin.

00:50:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly how I see it is.

00:50:43
Speaker 1: I think Irving is a better without injury probably asset, you know, from a projection standpoint and production standpoint. I mean, look at the end of the day, like when the Jets are in a more negative game script or even a neutral game script, We're probably not going to see the split that we saw last week with with that back field, like for all of the takes of Braylan Allen's but like I trust me, I people in my mentions last week were saying that Braylean Allen was better than Breeze Hall, like likes just straight up better of a player. And as much as I look, I liked Braylan Allen a lot coming out. He had the best breakout score within my my ZAP model in this running back class. Like he looked good on paper. I wish I would have been more bullish just about the situation and him getting some work and just trusting that talent evaluation. There's no doubt, But there's also no doubt that talent evaluation was there of him being a a good player.

00:51:32
Speaker 2: But to me, you know, look.

00:51:34
Speaker 1: At Week one against San Francisco, where they were in a negative game script, Breesehall dominated touches in that game. Now, I know it's week one, it's the first game of Braylan Allen's career, but it's not like Week two and Week three or that dramatically different, you know of a circumstance versus Week one. So I do think that in different game scripts and different scenarios, we probably don't see as big of a split he might be able to be, you know, a flex play and stuff, especially as we get into buy weeks and stuff like that, like you need to have him rostered. But Bucky Irving feels like someone who's gonna be a flex play, like like like, regardless of what's going on with Rashad White, I still have worry about Irving hitting you know, a really really usable ceiling without a White injury, because I don't know if they make that switch at pass catcher, you know, this season with White and Irving and having Irving be that guy. But it was always a weird pick to begin with, man, like you mentioned it, like Bucky Irving coming out was kind of a scatbacky kind of player who can catch the ball in the backfield, not bad in pass like that, Like he can play that role, and he goes to a team where the running back on that team, that's the only role that he that he can confidently play, right, Like we're we're all saying, like we all recognize that Rashad White has not been very strong in the ground, but we also recognize that White has been pretty good through the air, Like that's that's where his bread and butter is. That's what it was in college too for Rashad White. So it was always a weird pairing. And that's what makes it so difficult to think about, you know, where that like what that trajectory is season for a player like Bucky Irving.

00:53:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really weird. It's almost like you want to flip flop their sizes with Rashad White how efficient and then Bucky Irving, you know, he runs like he's two hundred and fifteen pounds, he's like hitting the hole, not necessarily trying to get outside. I will say that there's the one kind of case with Bucky Irving is we're in this age of running back by committee where last year we had four running backs that were like sub two hundred pounds give us RB one points per game, three of them finished. There are Kyrine Williams, Devon h Chan was certainly not overall but in points per game absolutely, and then Jamier Gibbs and James Cook where you know, these sixty to forty backfields, these fifty five to forty five backfields, these smaller backs that are like the high value touch guys are very much more in play than we saw years and years ago. So I don't know, it is could be the age of a guy like Bucky Irving making a real impact. So I want I want both those guys on as many rosters as pop right now.

00:54:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a really important point to make.

00:54:02
Speaker 1: It's it's not that these teams are giving because look, running back weight is in my prospect model is one of the inputs because historically it's mattered a decent bit, right, but production can trump that. Still, like my model still had Devon a Chan as a decent prospect and and all that. But I do think that it's not so much that what we're seeing is that teams are giving those guys a massive workload, right. I mean, Devon a Chan has started to see a bigger one, but he's also gained a little weight, and they have certain circumstances going on in Miami that's forcing them to kind of do that. It's more so that the rest of the league is splitting their backfields. And I talked about this a little bit during the offseason, but like a lot of these other teams are splitting their backfields, and so in turn, if you have a more efficient back who is on the smaller side, he can get away and be a decent fantasy asset, if not a really really good fantasy asset. I think that's really what we're seeing right now. I think that you're point though about this Buccaneers offense in general needing to be a little bit better than what especially what we saw last week. That's gonna probably go a long way as well in terms of you know, him being able to Bucky Irving being able to withstand that value on lower touches because you know the three guys that you just named from last season, Kyen Williams, the Rams offense was pretty strong, and obviously he saw an incredible workload. Jamiir Gibbs, that was an efficiency and offense environment situation. Devon a Chan It's an efficiency and an offensive environment situation, you know, for him last season. So I do think that that's another key part to this Bucky Irving puzzle is that man, hopefully they can they can get back on track after a really really just poor performance against Denver.

00:55:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're definitely kind of a mystery team at this point for sure. Yeah.

00:55:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, which player do you think? I got two more questions for you. Which player do you think can bounce back after a slow start?

00:55:57
Speaker 3: I think Bjon Robinson is sort of the low hanging fruit here. You know, it's Bijon's giving you, like RB two numbers. At the end of the day, there's nothing about Bijon in the way that he looks with the football in his hands that's gonna change anything that makes me think he's gonna give us high end production. I do think that the Zach Robinson offensive offense was very much overrated in terms of the expectations that we pushed on them this offseason, but I think Bijon is just going to naturally get there with those touches. I think CJ. Stroud sort of where he's at in the quarterback rankings, this is an offense. It's gonna bounce back this week against Jacksonville. I think you're gonna see a really big CJ. Stroud week, and I think he'll get back there. So it sort of a number of these slow start type guys, but those two stand out significantly. And I think George Pickens is an interesting one where he's not necessarily a slow start based on where you drafted him, but I think where he's at in terms of the wide receiver scoring right now heading into week five, I think he could be much higher in heading into like week seven or week eight. Pittsburgh had these two games to start the year where it's sort of like, let's get out of Dodge with the win, not really open things up where you know, you go into Atlanta, you get that tight win. George Pickens could have had a monster game that week. You reference like a play that was called back Denver. Get out of Denver with the win always a weird place to play, and then last week we actually saw it sort of tick up a bit. Justin Fields has like two hundred and forty passing yards. I think this Pittsburgh offense is going to start looking better and better with Justin Fields sort of being acclimated to being the starter, and I think George Pickens is going to rise up in production. He just looks so good out there. It's sort of one of those feel things, and the metrics back him up to obviously limited by the Arthur Smith offense, but all of the metrics with a player that looks dis talented, I think it indicates we're gonna see some spike weeks. Yeah.

00:57:53
Speaker 1: I like that call a lot. Another thing you mentioned was a Zach Robinson thing. Do you think that it was poor pro sess to say, hey, I'm gonna lean into this a little bit and say, you know, I'll buy into Bijon, maybe get Drake London in the second round and go that route. Or do you think and do you think that we're looking at it in hindsight now and saying, Okay, this is the outcome that we then saw.

00:58:17
Speaker 2: Would you if you had that process, would you have done it again?

00:58:20
Speaker 1: Because why I'm asking this is because I think it's easy for fantasy managers to look at the result of what's going on and chances are, like, if we're just playing probability, chances are Atlanta's offense is not gonna do what some of us thought, or like the market thought entering the season.

00:58:37
Speaker 3: Right.

00:58:37
Speaker 2: But at the same time.

00:58:39
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a terrible notion to buy into what could be a really good offensive mind coming from a good tree, right because look at what's going on in New Orleans right now.

00:58:49
Speaker 3: Oh No, I think you nailed it. I think that the process of trying to identify the upside breakout offenses is one of the last remaining edges that we have in like so like when you know you referenced your you know you get started in like twenty twelve. This is like the information age. You have more access to more data right now than you ever did in fantasy football. And even like the worst player in your fantasy league has access to decent information if they're just a little bit proactive. So we have to be a year ahead on things. But I think you nailed it. I think like New Orleans was an offense that was sort of overlooked, but the offense that we should have had a little bit more excitement on and there. It's one that I heard you talk about this offseason, and I talked about a lot, but collectively as a community, I think maybe it was not we weren't quite as bullish on that. We should have been more bullish on this. Ryan Grubb in Seattle, that's sort of like if we could have flipped our ADP enthusiasm from Atlanta to Seattle and just attack those players continual at ADP, we'd feel a lot better about things. I mean, this looks like it could be a career year for dk Metcalf. The passing volume for Gino Smith exceptional, and I think he's just a new thinker. Ryan Grubb also factored in Kirk Cousins playing better and looking better, and Kirk Cousins. I just think it's it's not quite what we were expecting with Kirk Cousins. Now, Kirk Cousins goes ahead and gets himself that win in Philadelphia, if they were owned three and Saquon Barkley would have caught that ball towards the end of the game and we didn't get the Drake London game winning touchdown catch. Maybe there would be a little bit more drum beats for Michael Pennix right now. So maybe the full story for Zach Robinson hasn't been told. I just feel like it was a little bit of a not quite a Ponzi scheme, but sort of a we were We were influenced too heavily and collectively, and there was too many sharp people collectively investing in one offense. Where As Seattle, I think that's it. You brought up Clint Kubiak. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the offensive line injuries in New Orleans. But Taysom Hill back this week. That was sort of a missing piece last week. So yeah, Ryan Grubb, that's my guy. I think it's the greatest story. H The crazy probably the craziest thing for a college football fan is that Ryan Grubb's tight end coach is now the offensive coordinator at Alabama. That's how good Ryan Grubb is that he's getting people these life changing jobs, very much incredibly successful coach at Fresno, incredibly successful at Washington, and now you're immediately seeing it in the NFL. I love Ryan Grubb. I think there's a year from now, he could end up being the head coach at one of these big time college football jobs. It opens up. I don't know if he's long for the NFL. He seems like a college football guy, but if not, he'll be a head coach in the NFL at some point. He seems like a really really sharp guy that's getting a maximum value out of all these players.

01:01:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I started to do some research this offseason because I wanted to see if there were, if there was any statistical significance to offensive coordinator changes in the NFL, just just straight up changes, right, not looking at the individual coaches or anything like that, And at a large, from a large sample, a high level, there's not in fact, touchdowns per game when teams have seen an offensive coordinator change actually have dipped a little bit per team, which was kind of surprising to me, just because it seems like some of these teams get these like jolts from you know, one of these oc changes. But I do think that when you're able to find that team, you know, whether it be New Orleans, and what we might get in this like really really hyper focused target try in that offense, or what we're seeing out of uh Seattle and then you know, let's cross our fingers that we can see some change in like Tennessee and Atlanta. But like those two teams in particular New Orleans and Seattle, if you're able to hit on that, it's well worth the especially if you have like a portfolio of teams, it's well worth the misses on the other teams because you're getting such big values out of those players that it becomes worth it at the end of the day. So it's really, you know, it goes back to like how I think all of us, you know, how we both view fantasy football is just this giant cost benefit. And yes there's gonna be some growing pains and some negative stuff that comes out of targeting the wrong offenses, but it's important to not let that, you know, be the focus and let you lose sight of the good offenses that ended up, you know, working out at the end of the day.

01:03:08
Speaker 3: I think another thing, and I'm curious, curious if your research supports this, but there's not enough enthusiasm about year two offensive coordinators where sometimes these guys, you know, they have to see what works with this new job, and maybe year two is what we want to bet on for like the significant breakout we're seeing with Joe Brady, some really promising signs for him in year two. Certainly, Drew Petzig is a guy that we think, you know, that Detroit game was you know, minus not Detroit game. But we feel positive about this Arizona offense. And it's not only because Marvin Harrison Junior is in town and Kyler Murray's healthy. Functionally, they look right. So that's an interesting one for you to kind of follow on year one versus year two.

01:03:52
Speaker 1: The other thing that I was actually texting my buddy who's a Bears fan, and he's not obviously not very happy about the way that the Bears offense is going right now, so it's texting with him about it, and you know, the Waldron offense, And then I was referencing Luke Getzi and like talking about those guys.

01:04:06
Speaker 2: I do wonder and someone listening to this.

01:04:08
Speaker 1: Feel free to research this because this is just like off the cuff, you know, me h, just thinking about it out loud. Based on anecdotal evidence, it seems like offensive coordinators who get fired or let go from their previous gig and then immediately get a job somewhere else. It seems like those are the offenses that you generally should be worried about and not want to attach yourself to, which kind of makes sense logically, right, Like, this isn't like a promotional thing. It's not like a you know, and I'm not even referring to like Cliff Kingsbury who goes from head coach to offensive coordinator. I'm really referring to a lateral move from one team to the next after a clear failure the previous season, when they don't have this massive, massive backbone of being awesome coordinators. I wonder, I do really wonder if there's something to that. And then avoiding those offenses.

01:04:56
Speaker 3: I think that's a really strong point. And it's sort of like a those guys are like the recycled names. They're uninspiring hires, Yes, and it usually correlates. Usually don't get like a huge success rate from those guys. I mean, there's obviously gonna be exceptions to every single rule, but it's it's sort of like the you'd much rather see a unknown like a Ryan Grubb get the opportunity to see if his stuff correlates in the NFL. Bobby Slowick when he was hired. Like names like that that are that provide inspiration to you and maybe innovation versus these guys that we know are not that great because we've already seen.

01:05:31
Speaker 1: It, right exactly, And and like I wouldn't even throw like Joe Brady in that buck I know that Joe Brady was in OC in Carolina and stuff, but like I wouldn't throw him in that bucket because he went to a different scenario and a different situation and he then you know, got promoted, you know, into into the role that he has. But what's interesting another guy, Ken Dorsey who got fired from that gig and now he's the OC in Cleveland, and they look horrific offensively, Like I wonder if there's just like something too.

01:06:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm not trying to defend Dorsey, but that offensive line and loves again Joku and Deshaun Watson Schellen, so like yeah, like not trying to defend Ken Dorsey, but yeah, it's it's super interesting. And the Joe Brady won it's sort of like I think as the season moves along, Joe Brady will become a little bit more of a storyline. But they lose all they lose so many receptions and touchdowns of Josh Allen's career. Really when you look at the loss of Diggs and also gave Davis stylistically and what he's been able to do with this unknown wide receiver room, lack of a clear number one target, and then how efficient James Cook has been with him. Joe Brady is interesting because his career path was he was the hottest name in college football by a mile, and then gets elevated to the NFL rapidly as a very very young coordinator, and then gets sort of thrown under the bus in Carolina and now it's like a full circle where he's smart again. So it's Joe Brady's a really fun story line and one that I think is going to gain traction as the season moves along.

01:07:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent. All right, one more for you before we go.

01:07:07
Speaker 1: Give me an under the radar guy, maybe a couple under the radar guys who are rostered in very few leagues but should be rostered in way more leagues than they're currently rostered.

01:07:15
Speaker 3: So I do a Sleepers article in a Sleepers show. I'm on player profiler, and I'm always looking in the weeds here, these dumpster dive tech guys, I think for sub five percent rostered players available in ninety five percent of Yahoo leagues. Short term, it's Corderyl Patterson. It's a Corderyl Patterson weekend. You've got Pittsburgh in an opportunity to go up against Indianapolis, a team that's been very generous to opposing running backs. Corderill also gives you a kind of Swiss army knife like approach, and you know Arthur Smith would love to get a big game out of his guy, Cord Darryl Patterson, like he's dying at the bit for that one. And then long term, the fact that Devin Singletary has looked better than anticipated, the fact that they're getting offensive production out of Devin Singletary on a weekly basis, the fact that the New York Giants offense is actually very condensed. It's as much Malik Neighbors as you can handle, with some Wandel Robinson and some Devin Singletary, that's pretty much it. I think that bodes well for Tyrone Tracy, a guy who was a big time athlete, an older rookie. Last week he had seven touches. He's not rostered anywhere and Devin Singletary. The one issue with Devin Singletary is we haven't seen a really big sample size of him being able to handle an alpha role throughout the is and career, So could he break down in the second half of the year. I think Tyrone Tracy, if we're like chasing for upside with that sort of athleticism in the Devin Singletary role, he'd be a guy we comfortably have in RB two land and he's free right now.

01:08:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that call.

01:08:53
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be surprised if tonight, you know, Singletary has a big workload and does well against a very bad Cowboys defense against the run, and like that's something that we probably expect at this point. But I love the point that we've seen bursts of Singletary in the NFL, whether it be in Houston or Buffalo where he was fantasy viable and he gave us like a five or six game stretch, but it's never been, you know, across the entire season. And Tyrone Tracy more explosive than Singletary, is good pass cutcher out of the backfield, like that call a lot despite the fact that he is you know, a twenty four ish year old rookie. I still am a tyrone tracy guy. THEO man. It was great to chop it up. I wish we could do it more often. Let everyone know where they can find you.

01:09:34
Speaker 3: Yes, you can find me on Twitter at the og Fantasy You can find most of my work at Player Profiler written work. I write the Waiver Wire column and I do Waiver Wired the podcast. So after you listen to JJ's wonderful short form transaction show, you can listen to my long form show. They mesh well together. I'm doing School of Scott with Scott Barrett over at Fantasy Points. I'm doing Redraft in five with Andrew Cooper, and I have about five shows at Player Profile, So you can find me pretty much every day at one of these channels. I'm putting out a lot. Oh, and I write a weekly column at the Athletics, so that gave me credibility with like my father in law. I'm just like, look, just put my name at the top of the New York Times. If you search Theogremmager on the New York Times, my articles show up. So I guess I'm high brand now, JJ.

01:10:20
Speaker 2: I know I love whenever.

01:10:21
Speaker 1: It's like always like the random one off stuff that like isn't even like the focus of your gig necessarily. Like back in the day, I was doing a little bit of like we had like a number fire like a partnership with USA today, and I was, you know, getting published on the USA today. But that mattered so much more to all the all the boomers in my family, that's right, you know, as opposed to just the other stuff that I was doing in a startup and then getting bought by FanDuel and having all these like really cool things happening. They're like USA today, you were on you, you were That's all they care about.

01:10:48
Speaker 3: Man, Yeah, be patient with them. They don't know ball like we do JJ, but they can appreciate big brands. That's right.

01:10:54
Speaker 1: As always, you guys can find all my stuff over on lateround dot com. Make sure you're taking advantage of the underdog offer that's promo code late Round, But otherwise, everyone enjoy your weekend and thanks for tuning in.