718: Week 13 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacheras JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharieson in this episode seven and eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I think Week twelve was my worst week of the season, at least as an analyst, and after a handful of good weeks in a row, the Sleeper Show was not great. None of the quarterbacks that I mentioned ended up being QB once. Samaj p Ryan was good, but I wasn't as high on him as other analysts were. Last week. The Colts wide receivers were bad. DeMarcus Robinson was bad, Jarvis Landry was bad. I think the only read that I had right was the Rams backfield. I liked Kien Williams more than Cam Akers, but it's not like Kyron Williams scored a ton of fantasy points. It was a rough week. I've got to be better than that, and you deserve better than that. I'm ready to turn it around here in Week thirteen now before getting into the sleepers this week. 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The contest is set to go live at eight to fifteen pm Eastern on Thursday night, so head to fandel dot com, Slash League Slash DirecTV hyphen SNF and make sure to submit your lineups before Sunday night. That's fandle dot com Slash League Slash DirecTV Dash SNF. The first tier of players on this sleeper show consist of players who are rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll kick things off with some quarterbacks. So I actually do like this week. It's not one of those weeks where I'm like, sure, yeah, they're fine. These guys are actually decent streamers. And we'll start with Jared Goff. The Lions are hosting the Jags and one of the best game environments of the week. As I mentioned on last week's Sleeper Show, the Lions and Goff have been much much better offensively at home this year than on the road, and they're playing in Detroit this weekend. They're also just one and a half point underdogs in the game, with a fifty one and a half point over under according to fandals Sportsbook. That's the second highest game total on this slate, so GoF makes plenty of sense against the eighth best quarterback matchup according to adjustin Fantasy points Allowed. Now moving on, Mike White is in play this week too. I do like GoF more, but Minnesota's been pretty bad at stopping quarterbacks of late. They've a lot of QB one performance in five of their last six. They now rank as the tenth most advantageous matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Mike White's coming off a game where he did look good. He wasn't super aggressive down the field, but he did complete all four of his fifteen plus air yard throws. He has the supporting cast to be fantasy relevant in these plus matchups, and then the final quarterback Kenny Pickett. I think this could be Pickett's biggest fantasy outing of the season. He hasn't had more than one touchdown pass in a game all year, but Pittsburgh's been a lot better offensively, and their three games out of their by they scored twenty plus points in each one of those contests. They hit twenty offensive points just twice from weeks one to eight, and both of those games were at twenty points. Pittsburgh also has seen too many of their touchdowns as rushing touchdowns this year. Just forty one point two percent of their touchdowns have come through the air this season. That's the second lowest in the league, ahead of only Cleveland. The difference is that Cleveland is a more run heavy team than Pittsburgh is. Based on the Steelers' pass rate, that number should be more than twenty four percentage points higher. They're huge regression candidates in terms of how they score their touchdowns. They should be scoring more touchdowns through the air than they have been. And now they get Atlanta, a team that ranks is the fifth best opponent for opposing quarterbacks and the best opponent for wide receivers and the justin fantasy points allowed. I think it could really all come together this week for Kenny Pickett. Now, speaking of the Steelers, Najie Harris is banged up and Jalen Warren was out last week with a hamstring injury. But while I was putting notes together for the show, Adam Schefter tweeted that Jalen Warren was cleared by team doctors to resume practicing. That leads me to believe that he's going to play this weekend. And if he plays this weekend, I would anticipate him being the lead back in that Pittsburgh backfield. He's had a role all season long. He at least would likely see a lot of the early down work and then he'd get the pass catching work. And against a bad defense like Atlanta has, that makes him a really strong play. Now. Another popular waiver ad this week was Bam Knight, and with Michael Carter dealing with that ankle injury. He's not a horrible play. He doubled Ti Johnson's snap count in week twelve, which is great, though we do need to note that it was a nice positive game script for New York. Johnson actually ran one more route than night last week. That leads me to believe that if this does hit a negative game script against Minnesota, which is entirely possible, we could see a little bit more Ti Johnson than expected. So that makes Johnson a deeper sleeper in PPR formats. With that being said, Knight still had a target shair above ten percent in Week twelve. He'll likely see the most early down work for New York if Carter's sidelined, so you can start him if you're having issues at running back. Now, if Travis Etn doesn't get a good practice in this week, then I would expect Jrmichael Hasty to at least get some run against Detroit, at least more than usual. He came in for Etn last week against Baltimore and he got it done. He had seventy one percent of Jacksonville's running back rushes and a thirteen and a half percent target chair. Now, Darryl Henderson would probably get some more work if Travis Etn does miss this game, but Hasty is still my preferred option given what he did last week and the fact that he's going to see the receiving work for them. He's the guy who's probably going to be the pass catching back. So Jamichael Hasey is my pick outside of Travis Etn. And then the last running back in this group is Kyron Williams. The Rams continue to play in these negative game scripts, and Williams has been the pass catcher in that backfield since returning from injury. He's seen target shares of eight percent, seven percent, and twelve and a half percent over his last three while Cam Akers has one total target during this time. Seattle's a good matchup for running backs. Akers might actually be relatively efficient, but chances are the Rams are going to be trailing in this game and that'll lead to more Kyron Williams like we saw last week where he more than doubled cam Aker's snapcount. Now moving on to wide receiver, let's start with Zay Jones, who's a pretty obvious sleeper this week. I'm still not over the fact that he didn't talk about Jones on last week's show after talking him up week after week after week on this show, but I know that I have to move on. This game in Detroit could be high scoring, and Jones has a twenty six percent and thirty eight percent target share over his last two games. The Lions are the third best matchup for wideouts and adjustin fantasy points allowed too, So yes, there's a possibility that Zay Jones has another big game. DeAndre Carter could be a really good play this week too, as long as Mike Williams is sidelined. Right now, that's totally up in the air. Now, I will say I think Keenan Allen might go off in this game. They're playing the Raiders this week. He ended up playing sixty seven percent of his snaps last week from the slot. Carter, who'd been playing the slot this season, was at just twenty six percent, and Vegas ranks first in the NFL and percentage of wide receiver targets that go to the slot. They've been really, really bad against slot receivers. Now, I do think that Carter will get some looks from that area of the field as long as Mike Williams is out and the matchup just in general is not that bad, so as a sleeper, I do think Carter's logical. In that same game as Mac Collins, the Chargers ranked twenty first in PPR points allowed per game to wide receivers. When you adjust that for shrink opponent, they actually look even better. They rank twenty fourth. That's likely because teams are running the ball on them at one of the higher rates in the league, and they're not that good at stopping the run now. Even still, this game has a chance to shoot out, and Hollins, who's continued to play as the Raiders wide receiver two, he has almost an eighteen percent target chair per game since Week one. He's at least a highest floor option when considering players off the waiver wire. Nico Collins has seen target shairs of twenty five percent, twenty seven percent, twenty two percent, and twenty four percent and four of his last five games. He's not been super productive because of the offense that he's in. But Houston's a pretty big underdog this week against Cleveland, and the Browns are a relatively average team for wide receivers and the justin fantasy points allowed, So just given that target share, maybe a negative game script I think Nico Collins is in play. Corey Davis is playing more than Elijah Moore. In Week twelve, despite more having better production, Davis out snapped him forty three to twenty two. Now the Jets get the Vikings, they're the fourth best matchup for wide receiver and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Minnesota's specifically been bad against perimeter wide receivers too. Seventy four percent of their targets allowed to wide receivers have gone outside of the slot. That favors Davis more than Elijah Moore. But Davis should be favored over Elijah Moore anyway because of his general usage. And then the final wide out in this tier is DJ Shark. I'm gonna go back to that game against Jacksonville. Chark ended up playing just two fewer snaps than Khalif Raymond last week, finishing the day with a fourteen percent target chair. Jacksonville's a top ten matchup for wide receivers and justin fantasy points allowed, and you're getting Chark in a strong game environment. And I'm just realizing as I'm recording this that it's a revenge game. Not that that matters, but it's fun. So DJ Shark, he works now at tight end. I'm gonna go back to that exact same game and go to Evan Ingram, who, yes, he's not done a whole lot of late. He scored a grand total of seven point six p Puerow points over his last three games, but even still last week he ranked fourth across the league in tight end routes run and like I've been saying, this game has a high over under and the lines have been bad against tight ends this year. They're the fourth best matchup and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. And then there's one more New York Jet for you. I've now got a New York Jet at every single position on this show. What could go wrong? But it's Tyler Conklin. He also has a revenge game against the Vikings. Again, I don't really care about that, but it's fun. Conklin's in a similar spot as Ingram, where he's actually seeing decent usage but the production is really lacking. Thankfully, there's been a quarterback switch for the Jets, and Minnesota is the seventh best tight end matchup and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. He's a mid range tight end two for me this week, but outside the top four or five tight ends. It's a total crapshoot. Now we're moving on to a group of players rostered and fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. We're digging really deep here. I've got no quarterback, but I have two running back options. There are sets of team running backs. Josh Jacobs is banged up after his monstrous Week twelve. That would leave the backfield in the maybe more than likely if Jacobs doesn't go against the Chargers, though that's still intriguing enough because, like I said earlier with MATC Collins, the Chargers can be run on, and teams have chosen to do that this year. They have one of the lowest pass rates against in the entire league. Zamir White is definitely the ceiling play in that backfield without Josh Jacobs, but Amir Abdullah is a high floor option in PPR leagues because he'd likely be the team's primary pass catcher. So just watch that injury report with Josh Jacobs, and we've got another committee situation forming with the forty nine ers number two running back. Like I talked about in the fifteen Transaction show, Christian McCaffrey's having knee issues and Elijah Mitchell. He's now out for an extended period of time. We still don't know for sure right now if Christian McCaffrey's even gonna go this weekend, but regardless, let's just assume that CMC goes. I think ty Davis Price is the back who's going to take that RB two role, and that role could see a decent number of touches now. Jordan Mason has been active over tie Davis Price this year, but Mason also plays special teams. Back in Week two, when a similar situation arose, Davis Price played ahead of Mason, So I think logically he would be the play again this week. But it's Kyle Shanahan, who freaking knows it could even be Tevin Coleman. It's at least a match up against Miami that could be relatively high scoring at wide receiver. I've got two slot matchups that I want to exploit. The first one's Randall Cobb and the Packers. You know how Elijah Moore had his best game of the year last week. I know it was only two catches, but he still had his best game. That's partially because the Bears are not all that great against the slot. They've seen the six highest percentage of wide receiver targets go to that area of the field this year, and they've allowed the sixth most wide receiver yards to the slot. Randall Cobb not only plays the majority of his snaps from the slot, but he's had back to back games with a sixteen percent target share, So there is some intrigue there. And then the other slot player that I'm interested in, and this is a really really deep play, but it's Nick Westbrook Akine. The Eagles are there another team that tends to funnel looks to that area of the field to the slot. They rank second in percentage of wide receiver targets allowed going to the slot. Westbrook Akine saw as many targets as Treylon Burks and Robert Woods last week while playing seventy five percent of his snaps from the slot. If Tennessee falls behind, which is very very possible, they could be more pass heavy and they've actually been more pass heavy and neutral game scripts over the last few weeks. I doubt that you have to go this deep, but he's at least someone who's available in basically every league now. Looking at streaming defenses, this week, I talked up Seattle on the fifteen Transaction Show, so they obviously work as big favorites against the struggling Rams offense. Green Bay is a really strong play against Chicago as long as Justin Fields is inactive. Cleveland works against Houston as big favorites, and Houston just gave up the top defensive performance. And then there's the Giants. New York is a two and a half point home underdog, but that game has just a forty and a half point over under according to FANDLS Sportsbook, and Washington is the eleventh best opponent and adjusted fantasy points allowed for opposing fantasy defenses. So I think the Giants are another streaming defense option that's going to do it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com. Otherwise, thanks for listening everyone, I really really appreciate it. I'll talk to you tomorrow