703: Week 9 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachera JJ zacher reson What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode seven hundred and three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel.

00:00:20
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

00:00:21
Speaker 1: I was pleased with the results of last week's sleeper show. We'll start with the bad Wandel Robinson didn't come through and what was kind of a tough matchup. Irv Smith and Ka Dootten weren't very good streamers and most of the lower tiered quarterback streamers they didn't come through either. But Tyler Algier top fifteen performance, Rondell Moore had a good game. Garrett Wilson at one hundred and fifteen receiving yards, Latavius Murray was an RB two, Mikeasicki tight end eight, Khalif Raymond had seventy six receiving yards. Matt Collins had seven catches for sixty four yards. Like I said, I was pleased with the results. Now we're onto week nine before getting those sleepers though this week. Did you know that the Week nine and f Hilse Sunday Million is officially live on fandle Showcase. Your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one point four million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool two hundred and fifty thousand dollars first place prize, all for just five dollars. Head to fandle and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the Fandle app for more details. The first of two tiers of players that I talk about on this weekly sleeper show consists of guys who are rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. I would love to talk about Justin Fields here, but he's moved on.

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Speaker 2: He's rostered in more than fifty percent of leagues.

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Speaker 1: Now. It's a tough week for quarterback streamers, but the next man up, Marcus Mariota. There are a lot of teams on buys. There's not a whole lot to choose from this week, but the Falcons Chargers game has the second highest total on the week according to Fandel Sportsbook. This game is also being played in Atlanta, which is a plus according to Number five's expected points model. The Chargers are a bottom ten team and rushing success rate allowed this year, so the Falcons should be able to move the ball doing what they do best. LA has been pretty average against the past too, so it's not like they're a lock to just fail through the air. It's not like Marcus Mariota won't be able to throw the ball at all, But if the Falcons can move the ball offensively, that'll just generate more scoring chances overall for Mariota. LA's pretty average when it comes to adjusted Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this year, and I think Mariota is a pretty average streamer.

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Speaker 2: In a rough week.

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Speaker 1: There aren't as many options to choose from this week, but I've got to say Jeff Wilson is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues.

00:02:42
Speaker 2: I think that needs to change.

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Speaker 1: Clearly, He's learning a new system. He may not be up to speed this week, but it's at least a system and a staff that he's familiar with. Raheem Moster is going to be the lead back this week, and I still think moving forward that's the case. But Jeff Wilson is a much bigger threat to Raheem moster than Chase Edmonds was Edmonds was not working in that offense clearly, and Wilson has been good when he's gotten the call in the past. So I'm bringing him up on today's show because there's still a chance he sees some work this week. The running back position dies off pretty quickly in weekly rankings. You might be in a tough spot because of buys and Miami at least gets Chicago. That's a team that ranks in the bottom twelve and success rate allowed to running backs, and the Dolphins are a five point road favorite, so game script could really favor Jeff Wilson.

00:03:28
Speaker 2: He may not get that much run.

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Speaker 1: You should monitor reports as you enter the weekend, but I do think he makes some sense given what's out there this week and the last time we saw the Chiefs, Isaiah Pichecko played more snaps than Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Now the Chiefs are twelve and a half point home favorites against the Titans. That could lead to a more run heavy script. Of all backs on that team, that likely favors Isaiah Pichecko most so, even though the Titans have done pretty well against running backs.

00:03:56
Speaker 2: Of late.

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Speaker 1: I'm into Pachecko as a bye week fill in this week, speaking positive game scripts. On Thursday night, the Eagles are fourteen point road favorites over the Texans. Houston ranks is the best opponent for running backs and the justin fantasy points allowed to so clearly Miles Sanders deserves some love this week. But Miles Sanders has rostered in way more than fifty percent of leagues. If the Eagles get off to a hot start and lead in that game, Kenneth Gainwell could get some run too. He's had games this year where he's been in that fifteen percent twenty percent running back rush are and he's played by far the second most snaps at running back on that team. So if you're in a serious pinch, I like Gainwell in this spot. Remember we've got to play into game script when it comes to running back sleepers. Kenny and Drake is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of leagues at the time of this recording, and if we assume Gus Edwards doesn't go this week, he makes for an obvious play. I talked about this on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week, so I won't get into a ton of detail, but Drake saw a season high twelve percent target share this past week and he's given US two top fifteen performances over his last three. New Orleans is a below average matchup, but they haven't been the same tough matchup for running backs that we saw over the last few years. So you can go with Drake, who's the one A in that backfield. As long as Gus Edwards is sidelined. Deon Jackson would get a huge boost if Jonathan Taylor doesn't go this week.

00:05:18
Speaker 2: Even if he.

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Speaker 1: Does go, he may not be one hundred percent. He's got that ankle issue. That means Deon Jackson could get more run. And the thing about Jackson is that he's been really effective as a pass catcher this year. The fact that he has a couple of games with an eleven percent and eighteen percent target shair and he's got every single target that's gone his way this year. That likely helped the Colts get rid of nim Hines to feel good enough about getting rid of him now. The matchup this week is not great against New England. They're the toughest team for running backs and a justin fantasy points allowed, but they do rank twenty first and adjusted target share allowed, and that's really what you'd bank on for Deon Jackson, So keep an eye on that. Jonathan Taylor injury. Now, moving on to wide receiver Josh Palmer, another guy talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show. Mike Williams is out, Keenan Allen is banged up, it makes sense to go to Josh Palmer even if Allen goes, which he's at least trending in that direction. Palmer makes plenty of sense. He'll likely run the second most routes at wide receiver for LA, and he gets a Falcons team that ranks is the absolute best matchup for wide receivers and AD justin fantasy points allowed to the position, he's a very good play this week. Zay Jones is back as a mention on the show given Jacksonville's matchup against the Raiders. The Vegas secondary has been bad this year, The entire defense has been bad, and ad justin Fantasy points allowed, they rank as the top opponent for quarterbacks, the eighth best one for running backs, the eighth best one for wide receivers, and the tenth best one for tight ends. It's a good spot for Zay and while his target share dipped this past week, he still ran the most routes at wide receiver for Jacksonville and he's still at a nineteen percent target share on the season. Now, I don't love Isaiah McKenzie's route participation, giving Khalil Shakira's inching closer and closer, but he's in a prime spot this week. Butckenzie's played seventy five percent of his snaps from the slot this year according to PFF, and no team has seen a higher percentage of their targets against go to that area of the field than the Jets. That's who they get this week. So Isaiah McKenzie, given that matchup, he makes some sense. Evan Ingram is someone I love talking about on this show, but he's graduated. He's no longer a sleeper given the number of leagues that he's rostered in. You could go to Isaiah likely at tight end this week, though as long as Mark Andrews is sidelined, likely would likely be a tight end one projections wise, if Andrews officially gets declared out after seeing a twenty one percent target chair last week, So likely in this spot without Mark Andrews, likely a tight end one. And if you want to dig a little bit deeper than that, how about the duo of Noah Fan and Will Disley. I probably prefer Fan to Disley because he's seen a target share that's two and a half percentage points higher so far this year, but they both ran the samember of routes last week. This is purely a matchup play. Though Arizona has been really bad against tight ends this year, They've allowed five more PPR points beginning to be scored on them by tight end groups versus those group season long averages. So the Seahawks tight ends as a whole could be expected to score about five more PPR points this week than they typically score. It's an attractive game in terms of game environment, so going with Fan or Disley makes sense if you're in a tough spot. Now, we'll look at players roster and fewer than ten percent of leagues and WHOA, these options.

00:08:33
Speaker 2: Are not great. It's a rough week.

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Speaker 1: It's the last time I'm gonna say that, but it's a tough week. With all these sleepers, I don't have a quarterback streamer that's a deep play So we'll kick things off at running back and go to Sony Michelle. I can't even explain to you, guys how bad this tier is for running backs this week. I know you just heard Sony Michelle's name. You're like, nah, I'm not gonna use Sony Michelle.

00:08:53
Speaker 2: I get it. But there's a chance that this game.

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Speaker 1: Favors the Chargers more than their previous game against Seattle, where they were in a negative game script, and that script favored the pass catching Austin Eckler over Michelle. Eckler's obviously gamescript proof, but he played by far a season high seventy eight percent of LA's snaps back in Week seven. A more neutral or positive gamescript will favor Michelle a little bit more, maybe get him that thirty percent thirty five percent snapshare, and Atlanta's a favorable matchup, and Michelle still leads that backfield in goal line rushes this year with two. It's ugly, but at least there's some logic to it. Now. Michelle's unfortunately the only running back from this tier that I've got for you this week. So let's move on to wide receiver and talk about another Chargers receiver, DeAndre Carter. Carter's played about three quarters of his snaps from the slot this year, while Keenan Allen has been at sixty two percent. My guess is that if Allen does go, we'll see Carter in the slot more frequently, at least compared to Allen. But even if we don't, Carter's next in line for the Chargers. He should get more work because Mike Williams is sidelined and Atlanta not only has just been bad against wide receivers like I talked about earlier, but they've a lot the second most slot yards and the seventh highest target rate to the slot in the entire league this year, So you could look at DeAndre Carter without Rashod Bateman. The Ravens are going to lean on Devin Duverney, but he's rostered in way too many leagues. I can't talk about him on this show. Instead, I'm gonna talk about other wideouts on Baltimore and James Proshee and DeMarcus Robinson. In Week eight, where Bateman didn't get to play a whole lot because of that injury, Proshey tied DuVernay for the most routes run in the Baltimore offense, Robinson ran seven fewer routes than them. Robinson did, however, see eight targets to pro Chase four, so I can understand if you'd rather go that route. He might get more playing time, or maybe he's just the guy that Lamar Jackson likes more. The other thing, too, is that proche plays more in the slot, Robinson's more on the perimeter, and the Saints have actually done pretty well against the slot this year. They rank second best in yards allowed to that area of the field and their sixth best and target share allowed to the slot. So I guess Robinson is probably the play, but both should see more action this week with all the injuries in Baltimore, and it's against a Saint secondary that's been average against wideouts this year. Khalif Rayman has now hit seventy five receiving yards in each of his last two games, and he's had a target share per game close to eighteen percent over his last four. He ran just as many routes as aman Ross Saint Brown last week. The Lions now get the Packers. That's not a good matchup at all for Raymond on paper, but he at least deserves a shout out in this section because he's seeing good work in his offense. Now, speaking of matchups, the matchup for Terris Marshall this week not great. It's not one to get excited about. But since Robbie Anderson's departure from Carolina two weeks ago, Marshall's been running as the team's number two wide receiver pretty easily. He has fifty nine rounds. DJ Moore has sixty one. The next wideouts at thirty three. That's resulted in target shaars of fourteen percent and twenty five percent, So even in a tougher matchup, it could be at least a negative game script that could lead to some decent volume for Terris Marshall. And then, lastly in the section, Kate Otten, I'm going back to Auten. Cameron Braid has been out the last couple of weeks with a neck injury. He could be out again this week. Over these two games, no tight end has run more routes in the entire NFL than Cade freaking Otten. That hasn't resulted in amazing production or target shares, but that's the first hurdle a tight end needs to get passed. He needs to play and be on the field. The Bucks get a tough tight end matchup this week against the Rams, but Odden makes plenty of sense in an offense that's thrown at the highest rate in the league. Now, as for the defensive streamers, the Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Vikings all makes sense if they're still available in your league, but they're not a roster and over fifty percent of leagues they're not typical streamers anymore. So if you want one super deep defensive play, how about Seattle. That unit is playing really well and they've given you top twelve performances in each of their last three The last time these two teams faced one another, last time Seattle played Arizona, Seattle got to Kyler Murray six times, they forced an interception, and they had a fumble recovery. Now this one's in Arizona, I expect it to be tougher for Seattle, but they've done well the last few weeks and that gives me some confidence that they can handle the Cardinals offense. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, you know, for it's Follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com. Otherwise, we got one more show this week, the Mailbag Show, that drops tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk to you then