403: Bold Predictions

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Speaker 1: This is the lad with your host JJ Zachera J J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandelin at Number fire dot com in this episode four hundred and three of the Late Round podcast with many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I write a Bold Predictions article on number five each year, and I almost feel like it's a more actionable article than the players to Target or the players to avoid articles that I do too. And I think it's because typically when I'm looking at players to target or avoid, I'm looking at the most likely outcome for those players generally speaking. Obviously it's different for Late Round guys, but players to target and avoid articles are less about boldness. With the Bold Predictions article, I'm thinking a little bit more abstractly, But I think when I do that, I uncover players that I'm into more than I expected, and that helps me and you draft those players regardless. The Bold Predictions article is a super fun one that I do each and every year. Last year's version hit at a very unsustainable rate, so I don't expect things to go as well this year. But I decided to take ten of the fifteen predictions that I wrote up and talk about them on today's show. You can look up the other five with a quick Google search of my last name and Bold predictions. But since you're a loyal listener to this podcast, I'll also provide an additional bold prediction that didn't make it to the article. Now, before getting into those predictions, as you guys know, the NBA Playoffs are here, and of course FANDL has you covered. Compete in the Mountain Dew NBA Free play from now through September fourth for your chance to win your seat in a virtual event with NBA legends Gary Payton and Ray Allen. With each entry, you'll also be entered in the King of the Mountain Dew three point Bonus for your chance to win a share fifteen thousand dollars brought to you by Mountain Dew, official sponsor of the NBA. For more details, visit fandel dot com or download the FanDuel app today. Eligible ability restrictions apply. So the first bold prediction I want to talk about is that Terry McLaurin will score more Fantasy Points than Amari Cooper. Now, this is a bold prediction because McLaurin is currently being selected about twelve to fifteen wide receiver spots below Amari Cooper. That's according to Best Ball ten's ADP. Now, I don't think there's anything really really wrong with Amari Cooper's ADP, but I do think there is more volatility than people realize. The Cowboys took CEED Lamb in the first round of April's draft. That gives the offense another legitimate mouth defeed, and that has a chance to lower Amari Cooper's overall target share or at least cap it. But Amari Cooper was actually pretty fortunate in the touchdown column last year. You might not realize it because he only scored eight times, but ESPN might Clay's Opportunity adjusted touchdown Metric or OTD showed that he should have had a little under five. He was one of the top twenty biggest overachievers in touchdowns last year, and it was all because he had unsustainable play in the red zone. So you look at that, you look at some inconsistent play historically from Amari Cooper, and then you add CD Lamb into the mix. It's sort of easy to see Amari Cooper not totally living up to expectation. I don't mind him, but I'm not targeting him heavily. With Terry McLaurin, there's obviously some fear that the Washington football team is going to be very, very bad offensively, but he has a lot of potential. He only saw ninety three targets despite a twenty percent target share last year, and that's all because Washington ran the second fewest plays that any offense has run since twenty eleven at the same pass to rush ratio that they had last year. With an average number of plays, McLaurin would have easily had one hundred to one hundred and ten targets. And again, he's a rookie and Washington didn't do a whole lot to bring in competition for Terry McLaurin. So him getting to a twenty five percent of twenty six percent target chair is very, very viable volume wins in fantasy football. I understand the situation might suck, but it also might be more average than just terrible, and that's why Terry McLaurin has a chance to outscore in Mariy Cooper. The second bold prediction is that Cam Newton will finish as a top five quarterback. Now, this is obviously bold because Newton is usually drafted outside the top ten or twelve quarterbacks. I don't think this one's that hard to imagine, though. There's a lot of question marks because Newton's in this new environment. There's gonna be some sort of learning curve. But when he's healthy, he's a monster in fantasy football. And right now he appears to be healthy. Cam Newton has finished eight NFL seasons with fourteen or more games played. He's ended up as a top four fantasy quarterback in five of those seasons. Now, you might sit back and say New England doesn't have very good weapons. Cam Newton didn't have very good weapons in Carolina either. And let's not forget the last time we saw a healthy Cam Newton back in twenty eighteen. He was dominating in fantasy football. He was a stud before injuring his shoulder in Week ten against Pittsburgh. In twenty eighteen, he had averaged twenty three points seven fantasy points per game. He was the QB four in fantasy football. I think he's probably the go to late round quarterback this year. The third bold prediction is that Jeric McKinnon will catch at least fifteen more passes than mark Ingram. Now this is bold because Jack McKinnon is kind of an afterthought in fantasy drafts. For the most part, he hasn't played in forever. Now, I understand that mark Ingram is not that much of a pass catcher, even though he finishes a top ten running back. Last year, he only had twenty six receptions. It's because Baltimore is a run heavy team. But now you add in JK. Dobbins, who could steal some of those looks, and mark Ingram might not reach that six to seven percent target share. Again, it's a little bit scary in that offense. But with Jack McKinnon, he has a pass catching skill set. Now, he hasn't played since twenty seventeen, but in his four active seasons with the Vikings, he had twenty seven to twenty one, forty three and fifty one receptions. Raheem Moster last season averaged a target chair per game under seven percent when he started seeing significant snaps. But at the same time, the forty nine Ers still ranked fourteenth in the league in running back target share. They were still targeting their running backs. What if McKinnon is that piece that they need out of the backfield. I think that he can push the forty reception mark this year. The next bold prediction is that Adam Thielen will finish as a top three Fantasy wide receiver. Now this one's bold because Adam Thielen is being drafted outside the top twelve right now. But I think Adam Thlen is one of the few wide receivers in this league this year that can hit the one hundred and fifty target mark. Since twenty eleven, of the twenty seven wide receivers with the top three season long finish, twenty three of them saw at least one hundred and fifty targets. Last season. You got to kind of push aside because Adam Thlen wasn't totally healthy. But Minnesota was also good last year, running just thirty six point six percent of their offensive plays while trailing. They had a lot of positive game scripts that led to a lot of rushing for that offense. But now Stefan Diggs is not on this team and we could see more negative game scripts. Because the Vikings have an over underwin total of eight and a half on Fandel Sportsbook, there aren't many options in this offense, Adam Thielen might be fed and with a little touchdown variance, he could end up with a really, really solid fantasy season. James Connor will score more points than Nick Chubb. This one is bold because everyone's drafting Nick Chubb way ahead of James Connor, but I think that this could happen. The biggest knock on James Connor is his durability. He's yet to play a full season during his three year NFL career, but we've seen his upside in a totally normal environment, and by totally normal environment, I mean one where he's the starter or Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. Back in twenty eighteen, James Connor averaged twenty one and a half points per game in the thirteen games that he played. That's a number that's five point six points higher than Nick Chubb's single season points per game high. So this is far from impossible. It happening. What happens if Nick Chubb's workload is dinged a little bit more than we expect with Kareem Hunt now in the mix across the entire season. I've talked about this before on the show, but it's gonna be tough for things to get better for Nick Chubb. In terms of rushing share. In twenty nineteen, he had almost seventy six percent of Cleveland's rushes. That's the third highest individual rushing share that we've seen since twenty eleven. That's not gonna be repeated. And then, as we know Kareem Hunt is a great pass catcher, he's gonna cap Nick Chubb's ceiling as a pass catcher, as he did last year when he returned. I don't mind Nick Chubb where he's being drafted, it's fine, but I definitely see a scenario where James Connor, if he's healthy, outscores Chubb. The next bold prediction is that Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones will both finish as a top twelve wide receiver. I think this is the least bold of all of them that I'm gonna talk about today. But the reason it's somewhat bold is because these are two wide receivers on the same team both finishing as top twelve wideouts. But as I talked about last year with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the same exact show, teammates finishing as top twelve wide receivers as wide receiver ones happens pretty frequently. We had the Buccaneers do it last year. We had two pairings do it in twenty eighteen, one in twenty seventeen, two and twenty sixteen, none in twenty fifteen, but then two in twenty fourteen, twenty thirteen, and twenty twelve. We've been averaging more than one wide receiver teammate pairing finishing as wide receiver ones together per season. And the obvious pick this year is Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. I think you can make the case for other sets of wide receivers like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, maybe even Jujus Smith Schuster and Deontay Johnson that would have been bolder. But I love Calvin Ridley. That's what this is all about. Really. In the four seasons that Dirt Cutter has been offensive coordinator for Atlanta, they've been in the top eight and pass attempts every single season with a really shallow target tree there, Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones should eat. The next bold prediction is that Bryce Love will outscore both Carrie on Johnson and Marlon Mack. Now this is bold because carry On Johnson and Marlon Mack are going off draft boards multiple rounds before Bryce Love. I'm not really that into drafting Marlon Mack or carry On Johnson this year. I just don't see a path to upside. But I think there is a path to upside for Bryce Love without an injury. Of course, I'm not talking about injuries here. I like Antonio Gibson the most in that backfield. He's that Swiss army knife who can catch the ball out of the backfield and do a lot for that offense. But don't forget about Bryce Love. He wasn't a bad prospect at all, and all he needs to do is beat out Antonio Gibson, who only had seventy seven touches in college, and a geriatric thirty five year old Adrian Peterson. It's not that hard to see Bryce Love elevating himself to the RB one in that Washington offense. And like I said, I don't like Johnson and Mack this year. You have DeAndre Swift who's gonna steal a lot of looks from carry On Johnson. And you have Jonathan Taylor, who I think could just take over that backfield. I think projection wise, carry On Johnson and Marlon Mack should project to score more points than Bryce Love, But absolutely I think that Bryce Love has a higher ceiling. Tyler Lockett will finish as a top eight wide receiver. Now, this one's bold because most fantasy managers are taking Tyler Lockett outside the top twenty wide receivers. As the offseason has gone on, I've liked Tyler Lockett more and more. There's a couple of reasons for it. First off, Tyler Lockett bawled out last season before he got hurt. He had that leg injury that slowed him down towards the end of last year. But prior to that injury, he was averaging about nineteen PPR points per game. After the injury, that number dropped to nine point two. He was essentially the wide receiver three in Fantasy football before that injury happened. Now, the reason that his ADP is where it's at is because Seattle is projected to be a run heavy team. But like I said in the Mailbag show last week, what if they let Russell Wilson cook. What if they air it out just a little bit more. There's a path to serious upside for both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, And as we know in that offense, both of those wide receivers are going to have fairly high average at the targets and they're gonna be targeted in the end zone a lot. Last season, DK Metcalf led the NFL in wide receiver end zone targets. Tyler Lockett was fourth. So if Tyler Lockett's able to maintain his twenty two point four percent target share, he should be able to exceed his draft day expectation. But if that Seahawks offense gets a little bit more pass heavy, I could see him finishing as a top eight wide receiver. This next one is that Jamison Crowder will score more points than Stefan Diggs. This one's bold because you're typically gonna find Jamison Crowder getting selected fifteen or more wide receiver spots after Stefan Diggs. But as I talked about in the Players to Avoid episode, I'm a little bit worried about Stefan Diggs this year. In fantasy football, the Bills probably won't be throwing the ball all that much this year. They've averaged five hundred and six pass attempts over the last two seasons. The wide receiver twelve, the last of the wide receiver ones over the last five seasons, has averaged fifteen point nine PPR points per game. Now, since twenty eleven, thirty point two percent of teams have thrown the ball five hundred and twenty five or fewer times in a single season. Again, the Bills have averaged five hundred and six pass attempts per season over the last two years. Only eleven and a half percent of wide receiver seasons where a wide out hit that fifteen point nine mark came from those low volume teams. And then you add in the fact that Stefan Diggs is playing with a new quarterback, the ramp up period isn't very favorable. I just have a hard time drafting Stefan Diggs this year, even though he's in an awesome talent. But meanwhile, Jamison Crowder is in a position to just see a lot of volume in that offense. According to Fandels Sportsbook, the Jets are projected to win two fewer games in the Bills. They're likely going to be more pass heavy, and Jamison Crowder is not fighting with a lot of talent to see that volume. It's really just pshad Perriman and Chris Herndon right now. He already had a near twenty five percent target share last season. Jamison Crowder had one hundred and twenty two targets last year. That's a number that should look pretty similar to twenty twenty. To me, it's not that hard to see Jamison Crowder outscore Stephan Diggs this year. This next one's a fun one. It's the last one from my article, but it's that Logan Thomas will be the surprise tight end this year. Now this is bold because no one is even drafting Logan Thomas. There's a lot of ambiguity within that Washington offense. That's why you see three different bold predictions within that offense on today's episode. I already talked about Terry McLaurin, I talked about Bryce Love, and now I'm talking about Logan Thomas. But who's Washington's number two wide receiver. Who's their top tight end? That's the point. Logan Thomas has an opportunity. He's a converted quarterback with insane athletic measurables, and he's only been playing tight end for a few years. Like I talked about earlier, this offseason. One of the keys in spotting breakout tight ends is that they're typically very very athletic, more so than what you see from running backs and ye receivers easily, and Logan Thomas has that, and he's walking into a position where he actually could see volume. There's a much better chance that Logan Thomas does nothing this year as opposed to being a very very productive tight end in fantasy football. But this is a Bold Predictions podcast. I got to be bold, and Logan Thomas to me is going to be the surprise tight end this year. So all the predictions that I've walked through so far were written up in my article. Again, you can go search for that and find it, or just check my Twitter timeline at late round QB. An additional bold prediction that I want to talk about today is that Zach Moss will outscore his teammate Devin Singletary. I've talked a bit about the dynamic between Moss and Singletary on this show in the past, and how I've targeted Moss at his ADP way more than Singletary at his earlier this offseason. Back in January, I thought that Singletary was a by candidate for dynasty purposes. I've clearly cold on that as time has gone by. My biggest fear for Singletary is that he's not going to see any of the highly imp important looks in fantasy football. At one point, the thought was that he was going to be the primary pass catcher in that offense, with Zach Moss being the early down or an early down player and the goal line guy, the bigger bodied guy. But Number one Moss is more than capable as a pass catcher. He actually had a better receiving profile coming out of college than Devin Singletary did. That was a big knock that I had on Singletary coming out. One of the biggest surprises for me last year was how Singletary was utilized in that offense as a receiver. And then number two Moss has already gotten praise for that pass catching skill set according to reports. I'm just worried about Devin Singletary. I ranted about this on a mailbag show about a month or so ago, but he just comes across as someone who's going to be more of a between the twenties type player, and with Moss in the mix, Singletary's gonna have capped upside as a rusher, touchdown scorer, and potentially receiver. Moss is probably going to see his ADP rise over the next week or two because of these positive reports that are coming out of Buffalo, but I think it's totally justified. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.