815: 10 Trends for Week 6

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host J J zacheras j Jake Zacher reefon. What's up everyone, It's jj zacheryeson in this episode eight hundred and fifteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the trends this week, I just want to remind you guys about the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. The patreon has livestream q and as with yours, truly weekly rankings and tiers, rest of season rankings and tiers, and so much more. You can learn more about it over on lateround dot com. Trend one this week is about Ramandre Stephenson. I thought he was a by candidate a couple of weeks ago when Ezekiel Elliott started stealing more work from him because Stevenson's general snapshare and workload didn't really suffer that much. But clearly that was wrong. Advice, gimme the l now. I wasn't overly high or low on Stevenson entering the year, but I definitely didn't expect this, and it's not just an Ezekiel Elliott thing. His target's per out run rate has been cut by about forty percent. His rate of giving US explosive plays is dropped. His target share per game rate was over seventeen percent last year, it's only ten percent this year. Now. If you want some hope, New England's faced a pretty rough schedule to start the year from here on out. According to my adjutin fantasy points allowed numbers, Patriot running backs have a top ten schedule. So hopefully I can get Stevenson back on track, though I don't expect him to come close to his twenty twenty two numbers, especially as a receiver, which is really why you drafted Stevenson in the first place. According to fantasylife dot com, the Chicago Bears this year have a dropbacks over expected rate of zero percent, which means they've thrown the ball from a volume perspective at expectation. They're also nineteenth and neutral script pass rate, or their rate of throwing the ball when games are within six points. This has led to more passing volume in the offense. Last season, Chicago was dead last in neutral script pass rate. They averaged just a little over twenty two pass attempts per game. This year, that numbers over eight pass attempts higher. One of the strangest things this season, at least from the standpoint of what we expected entering the year to what's actually happening. One of the strangest things is that Chicago currently has eleven passing touchdowns to two rushing touchdowns. They have the seventh highest pass to rush touchdown rate in football. Now, their pass rate may be higher than last year, but that passed to rush touchdown rate that's bound to regress, which could mean good things for someone like Roshawn Johnson moving forward. But it's been a wild ride this year for that offense. Christian Watson was so close to a big game in Week five. His box score looked okay enough because he did make one big play, But Watson finished the week with a twenty four percent target share and the second most air yards in the NFL, behind only George Pickens. Still lead the NFL in air yards per attempt, too, so better days should be ahead for him. I'd consider him more of a bye than a cell. The New York Giants offense is such a dumpster fire. They ring thirty first in air yards per attempt, They're tied for last and total touchdowns this year with just five and as I said in the fifteen Transaction Show, they haven't scored an offensive touchdown in three of five games. They ring thirty first in pressure rate allowed, they're thirty second in sack rate allowed, they're twenty seventh and rushing yards over expected per rush. This is your friendly reminder to stream defenses against the New York Giants. Things continue to trend in the wrong direction for Alexander Madison. He's still been productive enough in Fantasy. Last week he scored through the air, but he saw his snapshare drop to just fifty one percent this past week. From weeks one to three, he averaged about a seventy five percent snap rate. Over the last two weeks. With the Vikings using more cam akers, that snap share has gotten down to sixty nine percent and then fifty one percent this week. This might be what we see moving forward, more of a fifty to sixty percent snap share. But I still think throwing a dart at cam akers, using a bench player to get cam akers, it's not the worst idea in the world. It's a trend show. So I've got to bring up Breisall after his Week five performance. Yes, I know it was the Broncos, but Hall saw his highest snap share of the season at fifty two percent. He saw by far his highest running back rush share of seventy six percent. He had a season high eleven and a half percent target share too. Robert Sawa said that Hall wouldn't be limited, and while they're still using more Michael Carter than I'd like, we saw how effective Hall can be in a plus matchup. He's just a great running back. The Chiefs seem adamant about rotating their wide receivers, but their best wide receiver this year has clearly been Rashi Rice. His yards per round run of two point seven nine is best on the team by point six and the only other wide receiver with a mark above two is Justin Watson. Rice also has the highest targets per route run rate in all the football among players with fifty or more routes run. Now, I know that they're openly telling us that there's gonna be a rotation there, but I'm having a very hard time just accepting that as truth. Rice is a raw prospect, but he's doing well and they're giving him the ball when he's on the field. It's hard for me to drop a player like that. As everyone knows. Cooper Cup returned for the Rams in Week five. With Cupp, the Rams ended up running one hundred percent of their offensive plays out of eleven personnel. That's accord to Next Gen Stats. That's a three wide receiver set, and it's also a Sean McVay special. The Rams are first in the league in eleven personnel usage entering the week at a ninety two percent rate, but the fact that it was even heavier, even higher, that's good news for two to two at Well because Atwell played as the team's number three WI with an eighty nine percent snaphare. He's the third option in that offense, but he still saw a fifteen percent target share despite two wide receivers being ahead of him, and he has upside if something happens to either Cooper Cup or Puka Nakua, there's plenty of reason to keep him on your roster. Despite a two catch performance, Derrick Henry saw a season low sixty five percent running back rush are in Week five. He's now been below a ten percent target shair in all but one game this year. He's ranked as a top ten running back in PPR formats just once. It hasn't been a completely miserable experience if you have Derrick Henry, but it also hasn't been great. But if you want some optimism thrown your way, which I'm sure you do, I think Henry's more of a hold despite these peripherals. Moving forward from now through the rest of the year, Tennessee running backs to the fourth best schedule by justin Fantasy points allowed, and we want positive game scripts. That's gonna help Derrick Henry. And after this week and it's Baltimore, they get the Falcons at home, and then they're on the road against the Steelers and then the Buccaneers. Those aren't difficult matchups. And in the fantasy playoffs, Henry's gonna get Houston Seattle and then Houston again. So I wouldn't give up on Derrick Henry just yet. The last trend this week is about James Cook. Things were really looking good for Cook after Week one he saw eighty percent of the team's running back rushes. But since that point in time, he's hit a max single game running back rush here of sixty percent. And I've seen people panicking, and I get it. He doesn't have the most ideal role in the world, but I would still relax a little bit. His snapshare in Week five was the highest that we've seen all year, and his route participation was also highest. He's now hit about a ten percent target chair in four or five games this year. He's gonna be more valuable in a role where he's used, more like Alvin Kamara than some early down bruiser, so hopefully the Bills lean into that right now James Cook as a whole. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and doore friend to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show