AvTalk Episode 317: The (Q1) results are in

AVT 317 Transcript
EPISODE 317
[EPISODE]
[0:00:07] IP: Hello, and welcome to Episode 3174 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik here as always
with –
[0:00:16] JS: Jason Rabinowitz. Hello, Ian.
[0:00:17] IP: Hello Jason. How are you sir?
[0:00:19] JS: I'm good. How are you doing?
[0:00:22] IP: I'm doing all right. I think spring might actually be here.
[0:00:26] JS: For real this time, so it's not going to be snowing in Chicago tomorrow or anything
crazy like that?
[0:00:30] IP: I mean, who knows? But I think this might actually be spring, so I'm enjoying it.
[0:00:37] JS: Enjoy your one week before summer.
[0:00:39] IP: Yes, before it's 85 degrees and 200% humidity.
[0:00:42] JS: Yes, that is actually next week.
[0:00:46] IP: Yes, there you go.
[0:00:46] JS: Looking forward to that already.
[0:00:48] IP: But things have been all over the place in the aviation industry. We've got lots of
first-quarter results coming out from companies seeing the effects of, I think, the word
“uncertainty” has been mentioned in every single one of these quarterly reports. Also, the
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Federal Reserve's Beige Book is out, a macro survey of the general economic feeling of
businesses and economists and the mention of uncertainty is certainly highest, I think, it's ever
been.
So, we'll get to that in a little bit, but there's also some good news this week, and we're going to
talk about that as well. Let's dig into some of the top-line numbers from Boeing, which released
its first quarter financials today and had its call earlier today. They lost $31 million in the first
quarter.
[0:01:49] JS: I mean, in the grand scheme of things, that's –
[0:01:52] IP: But that’s a lot less than they lost last quarter, which was $3.9 billion.
[0:02:01] JS: Yes, you don't want to lose any money, but if you're losing money, it's better to lop
an entire digit off that figure, I guess. It's not too bad.
[0:02:10] IP: Many, many, many digits, really. They lost $31 million in the first quarter of 2025,
which was a dramatic reduction from the previous quarter, and also a pretty dramatic reduction,
a 10-fold decrease from the same quarter in the previous year where they lost $355 million. So,
as Boeing CEO, Kelly Ortberg said today during the earnings reports, “Our company is moving
in the right direction as we start to see improved operational performance across our
businesses.” And the company, “Remains committed to making the fundamental changes
needed to fully recover the company's performance while navigating the current environment.”
There's that buzzword though. But we didn't get any uncertainty in that first –
[0:03:01] JS: Did they use the word, “dynamic”, because a lot of companies are using the word
dynamic which really mean anything. But Boeing did reiterate that it does plan on gradually
increasing the 737 production rate to get to 38 per month this year and also the 787 program,
they are stabilizing that at five per month and still hopes to get that up to seven aircraft per
month by the end of this year.
Boeing has not been particularly successful on increasing production rate without either having
to ratchet it back down or simply not reaching that target. Still, I don't think there's been any
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commentary on the second 737 line-up in Everett. Who knows when that's going to happen, but
things are trending, dare I say, in the right direction.
[0:03:44] IP: Well, they did say, so 38, remember, 38 is the number that the FAA has capped
Boeing at as far as how many 737s they can build per month. To go higher than that, they need
to request permission from the FAA, and Ortberg said that they do plan on asking the FAA to
increase that monthly cap up to 42 later this year. So, that seems to be trending in the right
direction.
[0:04:17] JR: Okay. Good news.
[0:04:19] IP: Yes. Good news. Boeing also talked about how the tariffs are impacting the
company. They are paying a 10% tariff on parts that are coming in from Italy and Japan. Those
increased prices, Boeing says will be passed on through exports. They hope to basically keep
the same amount of revenue versus cost because they're going to be able to pass those
increased costs on as increased prices through exports. US airlines, on the other hand, not too
happy to hear about that or happy to hear about that, I guess I should say. What else was good
news for Boeing?
[0:05:00] JR: Good news.
[0:05:00] IP: Generally, upbeat on deliveries, 130 aircraft delivered in the first quarter this year,
that is up from 83 deliveries in the same quarter for last year. So, trending in the right direction,
it seems financially, operationally, and culturally, it seems that Boeing has done some listening.
An employee survey in which 82% of employees participated told Boeing that the employees
just basically said, “Hey, management, we don't trust you and we're not feeling great.” Which I
don't think is a huge surprise.
[0:05:47] JR: No, not a surprise to anyone, but in reaction to all of that, Ortberg shared five new
company values that they plan to adopt. And this is not, I mean, a lot of this is corporate speak,
but this is not something unique to Boeing or anything here. But the five company values that
Boeing has picked is safety and quality, people focus, trust, ownership, and innovation. Okay. If
that's in order, I guess that's the right order as well. Maybe I'd swap around people focus and
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trust because without trust, you can't focus on your people. But seems to be good, especially
the back and forth over the one on ownership where apparently the tagline for that one includes
the quote, “Give a damn!” When I pointed out that, like, “Hey, I like that,” because nothing good
happens if people don't give a damn. If you don't believe in what you do, if you don't believe in
the company, if you don't put effort into it, the company is going to rot and it's going to be bad
and you're going to end up with Boeing circa 2022 or 2019, whatever.
There is some question of, well, it really depends on what you're giving a damn about. If you're
giving a damn about financials and share buybacks and only investors, yes, that's a problem.
But this is more of what are the company values from an employee point of view. If it is that
every employee needs to give a damn, well, your guys and whomever else on the 737 assembly
line, they probably don't care so much about shared buybacks. If they give a damn about doing
a good job and sending out airplanes that have all the bits and pieces attached, that's probably
a good improvement.
[0:07:25] IP: Yes. I mean, some of the results in the survey were, I think, not shocking, but the
numbers offer some real clarity. This survey was the first survey of Boeing employees since
2019, and it found that 67% of the employees who responded reported feeling proud to work at
Boeing. That was down from 91% in a 2013 survey. Only 27% of staff would highly recommend
Boeing as a place to work and 42% said they had confidence in senior leaders' ability to make
decisions, communicate direction, and respond to concerns raised by employees. So, less than
half had confidence in the folks leading the company.
Those are some real stark numbers. I think that that is hopefully some stark relief for Boeing
leaders, and it seems like they're taking this to heart. The new values, and Jason, you
mentioned, corporate speak, yes, it's going to be corporate speak because Boeing is a giant
corporation. But if they can put these values into action and reinvigorate what being a part of
Boeing means, then I think that's a great thing.
[0:08:45] JR: Yes, the proof will be in the pudding. They actually got to put in the work. You
can't just slap these whatever you want to call them company slogans or company beliefs on
the wall and then not do anything with them. You actually have to live these things. So,
hopefully, we do actually get to that point and it's not just, “Oh, people focus and then on to the
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next thing.” But not all is well at Boeing because nothing is ever going to be all well at Boeing.
Nothing can ever be going that well because it's too large a company for everything to just be
fine. We talked about this a bit already about the tariffs and how Boeing is paying for some of
the parts because, remember, Boeing is a global company. It cannot make its aircraft without
sourcing parts from international entities.
However, China, as we talked about last week, basically stomped on the brakes for all deliveries
of Boeing aircraft and I guess really US based parts and now we have seen two 737 aircraft
already flying all the way back home to the US to be potentially pre-marketed elsewhere.
[0:09:47] IP: These were 737 MAX aircraft that were destined for Chinese Airlines that had
flown from Seattle to Boeing's completion center in China for final work before delivery. They
had not yet been delivered, and they are now back in the US. I believe there's a third 737 MAX
that is due to make the trip back as well.
Elsewhere in China, China Southern had been trying to divest itself of its 787-8 fleet. They are
trying to sell all 10 of them. I put in a tender offer. It was immediately rejected –
[0:10:27] JR: Petchmo Air, unfortunate aircraft.
[0:10:29] IP: It was immediately rejected, and I guess they didn't want my money, but that's
neither here nor there. However, they are now temporarily suspending that potential sale
because of uncertainty and what's happening. The company says that they were suspending
the sales, “In view of the existence of matters affecting property rights transactions.”
[0:10:57] JR: Oh, that's a lot of words. These are not new aircraft by any means. The average
age of China Southern 788 fleet is, I think, almost 12 years old. So, these have been around a
while, and airlines aren't exactly thrilled with the 787-8. It's kind of the misfit of the family, they
have far more. I think they have 19-9s. Kind of like what we saw with Norwegian transferring to
Norse, they had no interest in those dash 8s, because Ian, you're not a big fan of the dash 8,
are you?
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[0:11:28] IP: Anyone who's listened to, I think, more than three or four episodes of the podcast
will know that I do not like the 787-8 for a variety of reasons.
[0:11:35] JR: And you tried to buy them from China Southern. Look at you. Hypocrite.
[0:11:38] IP: Just because I don't personally like the plane, it doesn't mean it's not a great fit for
Petchmo Air. But it's just the oddball for all sorts of operational reasons, for all sorts of aesthetic
reasons. It's just the oddball 787. Don't get me wrong. I absolutely love the 787-9. It is the
perfectly proportioned airplane. The dash 8, it’s just wrong.
[0:12:02] JR: Well, at least China Southern had a very nice livery on these dash 8s with not just
the Euro white on the fuselage, they had that nice blue kind of feathery, swooshy thing going on
and big 787 titles up front. Because remember, these are some of the older 787s out there. So,
it was still cool to tout that you have 787.
[0:12:20] IP: These is a 787.
[0:12:21] JR: It was a cool thing to show that, hey, these are 787s, and they definitely did just
that. I think their oldest one is line number like 34. So, these are pretty old aircraft in the grand
scheme of 787s, but yes, they might hold onto those for a fair bit longer, huh?
[0:12:37] IP: So, the suspension runs through the middle of May, and then I think they're going
to try and retender them. So, maybe I still have a shot. I don't know.
[0:12:43] JR: You never know?
[0:12:45] IP: You never know. Let's round out our discussion of Boeing this week. This isn't
really part of the earnings call that was today, but this news came out yesterday on the 22nd of
April, we're Boeing announced the agreement to sell a collection of digital businesses to a
private equity firm. Thoma Bravo will purchase Boeing's digital aviation solutions businesses
including Jeppesen and ForeFlight. So, Jeppesen is the charting company that has been around
for decades and decades.
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[0:13:19] JR: 1934, 91 years.
[0:13:21] IP: So, if you're using approach charts, airport charts, things like that, that's all
Jeppesen, and they do much more than that. ForeFlight is of course the digital pilot all-in-one,
Electronic Flight Bag is, I think, underselling it, but extremely popular with general aviation
pilots, used by military pilots. That was purchased by Boeing I believe in 2019.
[0:13:47] JR: You are correct.
[0:13:48] IP: Not been part of the family for very long, but this has been, I don't want to say on
the chopping block, but Boeing has been looking to kind of divest themselves of these types of
businesses for about a year now. There's been talk and there was some speculation that
somebody like RTX or another kind of aviation-centric large contractor would pick these up.
Thoma Bravo is a private equity firm that deals with a lot of software, but they do not have
necessarily a strong aviation background.
[0:14:25] JR: No. I'm cautioning myself getting too out of my wheelhouse. But if you are a
Jeppesen or ForeFlight user, this should scare the crap out of you. Nothing good happens in the
hands of a private equity firm. Literally nothing in the history of a company being acquired by a
private equity firm has ever resulted in something positive happening. So, if you are a GA pilot
tooling around for fun, using ForeFlight or if you are a massive global airline using Jeppesen for
your charts and your Electronic Flight Bag, this should scare the crap out of you because a
private equity firm is in it for nothing but the profit.
So, the term for private equity firms and what happens to stuff that they buys, and what happens
is they're not in this to improve it, most likely prove me wrong. Hopefully that is not the case, not
what happens here. But private equity firms are typically the grim reaper for private companies
or public companies that get bought out by private equity. I would not be happy if I were an
airline that relied heavily on my operation for this. I can't imagine they'll have the resources or
the commitment to it that an entity like Boeing did.
[0:15:40] IP: The best thing that could happen is nothing.
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[0:15:44] JR: Exactly. If nothing happens, that's fine, but that's not typically how this goes.
[0:15:49] IP: Well, we shall wait and see. Let's head south and talk about Embraer, which has
an optimistic outlook.
[0:15:58] JR: Hey, good times down in Brazil.
[0:16:01] IP: Like very optimistic outlook. Very large and growing backlog, both in terms of the
E175 original, because American airlines, both airlines in America and American Airlines, the
company, are continuing to order those things, scope clause. And then the E2 backlog
continues to grow with Brazil's Azul, Porter Airlines up in Canada, and some lessors including
AerCap taking a bunch of those.
So, you've got airlines around the world looking for E2s. E195 is an E190 E2s. And Embraer
says, “Hey, we're doing okay. Delivery performance was not super great because of supply
chain issues.”
[0:16:48] JR: Thirty aircrafts in the first quarter, which is apparently 20% higher than the first
quarter of 2024 when they only delivered 25. So, they're actually managing to turn out more
aircraft than they did the year before, which these days, that's something to sneeze at.
[0:17:04] IP: That will hopefully grow over the course of the year. Then we'll see where they go.
But they seem upbeat, so we'll go with the good news for Embraer.
[0:17:12] JR: Yes, good for them. Just slow and steady. It must be nice to be a company of this
size who can just keep churning out a 20-plus-year-old product and just keep going and keep
selling. And not really even have to worry about replacing it because you don't have to do
anything. All you have to do is –
[0:17:26] IP: Let us know when you need more.
[0:17:27] JR: – conveniently building and supporting your existing 20-year-old thing and the
buyers will keep coming.
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[0:17:33] IP: Yes. Airbus not so happy with the A220 these days. The aircraft itself still doing
quite well. However, building and delivering those aircraft, not great, and not many people are
ordering them.
[0:17:53] JR: Yes. The A220, we've talked about this a number of times. It's kind of the runt of
the Airbus family. Not surprising. It's not actually an Airbus-developed aircraft. It is Bombardier's
aircraft now rebranded as Airbus. Of course, it's not going to be the aircraft in the spotlight, but
Airbus is very focused on stabilizing the A320 production line and the A320 supply chain, and
also, fixing all those engine issues from Pratt & Whitney for, specifically the A320. So, the A220
is kind of a runner-up here, like it's getting some attention, but not a ton. Definitely not going to
see a stretch anytime soon of this aircraft until it's stabilized or there's some more orders. But
Airbus isn't it for the long haul, but you don't see many orders for the A220 these days, do you?
[0:18:44] IP: No. I mean, they, I guess symbolic orders in the last year or so, but just the
program has been under such strain. I mean, between the actual building and delivering the
aircraft, and then once the aircraft are delivered, keeping them in service because of the
engines has just been such a –
[0:19:04] JR: A hassle.
[0:19:07] IP: Hassle. There you go.
[0:19:07] JR: Hassle. And on top of that, Airbus now has to take in-house the Spirit
AeroSystems’ division that made A220 components, which according to this Aviation Week
article that willing to, is a really big problem because, “They are horribly loss-making. And up
until now, that was Spirit AeroSystems’ problem. But now it becomes an Airbus problem and it
starts to become real because those losses are now Airbus' problem. So –
[0:19:33] IP: It's funny. Their Airbus’ problem now because they were Spirit's problem before.
Spirit becomes Airbus' problem because Spirit is Boeing's problem.
[0:19:41] JR: There’s just problems everywhere.
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[0:19:41] IP: It's almost like this is a very small industry. I mean, we're talking about billions and
billions of dollars between the decisions of a handful of people, which is, I think, worth
remembering sometimes.
[0:19:56] JR: Yes. Maybe we go back so long ago to when Airbus referred to the C Series way
back when as a cute little aircraft. A different reality we would be in if Airbus didn't have to
basically purchase out the C Series family or ended up buying it for a symbolic dollar. What's old
is new again, since –
[0:20:17] IP: It just keeps coming around.
[0:20:18] JR: Teros put this aircraft where it is now and Teros again, making it even more
difficult to sell this aircraft. Everything that's old is new again.
[0:20:28] IP: There you go. Let's head southwest. With Southwest Airlines reporting its first
quarter earnings this week as well, Southwest Airlines lost $149 million in the first quarter.
However, that's less than it lost last quarter.
[0:20:49] JR: Hey, that's the good news.
[0:20:51] IP: There's the good news.
[0:20:51] JR: The bad news is that they lost $149 million on record revenue of $6.4 billion. So,
there's something quite wrong in the house of Southwest where if you are losing that much on
record –
[0:21:06] IP: And on all-time record yields.
[0:21:08] JR: Yes, not good. So, they are taking in more money than they have ever taken in,
but they are still losing $149 million on the quarter, on the quarter, which is not great. Things are
moving along in the way of reshaping Southwest, so basic economy and bag fees are expected
to launch next month while assigned extra legroom seats go on sale in the third quarter for
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actual operation in the first quarter of next year. Oh, and as everyone is doing, is so popular
these days, capacity is being cut due to, quote, “dynamic.” There's the dynamic word, economic
environment.
Overall, though, capacity is up, I think, 1% on the full year, even after the cuts for Southwest
because of their operating red-eye flights, which they didn't do last year. Also, they have cut turn
times at 19 airports and counting, so making airplanes fly more and making them fly overnight
since they're capable of flying at night, and it turns out so is Southwest now, but a little bit.
[0:22:09] IP: Planes can work in the dark. Who knew?
[0:22:11] JR: They can. They can. Some airplanes can only work in the dark. If you're 757 in
Europe, you can only operate when the sun goes down.
[0:22:17] IP: That's true. It's true.
[0:22:20] JR: It's a little known, but it's true.
[0:22:23] IP: Jason's referring to, I think it was early this week, late last week, you threw up a
filter on 757s, and it was nighttime in Europe, and that’s the only time they come out there.
[0:22:32] JR: The only time you'll see them.
[0:22:31] IP: Did you call them the vampire airplane?
[0:22:33] JR: They are the vampire airplane because in Europe, you pretty much only see a
757 operating when the sun goes down because they're all freight aircraft at this point. I don't
think there are any passengers 75s left in Europe, right?
[0:22:45] IP: I mean Iceland.
[0:22:48] JR: Except for Iceland Air, but that's different. They're over there. And even those are
on their way out.
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[0:22:52] IP: We're going to get angry emails from –
[0:22:54] JR: That's okay. Moving on. I'm going to move on. Southwest is not the only airline, at
least in the US, losing money. As just a minute ago, we see Alaska Airlines also reported an
adjusted $95 million net loss on 197 operating loss in quarter one. But they say bookings for the
second quarter have stabilized, but their outlook includes recent, “softness.” There's a new word
we haven't used yet today. So, things, not good. Not good.
[0:23:22] IP: I'm making a list of all the euphemism words that we're seeing. Soft, dynamic,
uncertain.
[0:23:29] JR: Got to be more.
[0:23:29] IP: We'll keep it going. Let's head over to the engine side of things where CFM is
saying that things are not great.
[0:23:40] JR: Things are still broken. What do you want from us?
[0:23:42] IP: Yes. Things are still broken. LEAP engine deliveries were down 13% year over
year with the first quarter of 2025 seeing delivery of 319 engines amongst a host of continuing
supply chain issues. However, they are trying to make those up by the end of the year with
shipments rising 15% to 20%. So, they've got a way to go then, if they want to come out ahead
that far by the end of the year. They shipped 367 engines in the first quarter of 2024.
[0:24:21] JR: Could be better. Could be better.
[0:24:23] IP: It could be better. So, on the good news side of things, all of the LEAP-1As that
are being shipped for the A320neo family have the life extension kit as kind of the factory
package. So, those are going to be especially good for A320neo Family aircraft that are
operating in those hot and dusty regions. So, that'll be good to see. The similar package for the
LEAP-1Bs, which power the 737 MAX, is also in progress.
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So, that's moving in the right direction. We'll see how that goes. Where else can we go?
We'll go to GE Aerospace and RTX discussing tariffs as well, saying that GE is going to take a
$500 million hit this year from tariffs. However, they do intend to impose tariff surcharges on
customers, which will lessen the total number and bring them down to $500 million. However,
they are still going to be able to meet their financial guidance. That's impressive to my mind that
you can take a $500 million hit and still meet your financial guidance. I'll be interested to see
how that's going to happen. RTX says that they will possibly see a potential impact of $850
million from increased costs due to tariffs.
We have a quote from RTX CEO, Chris Calio, quote, “The situation remains fluid and it's difficult
to assess the impact. I'm adding fluid to the list.”
[0:26:03] JR: Fluid. That's a good one. So, we've got fluid, dynamic, or the other ones. Are we
writing these down or are we forgetting –
[0:26:12] IP: Soft. Yes, I’m writing them. Soft, dynamic, uncertainty, and fluid.
[0:26:15] JR: Oh, okay. Okay. Maybe we'll get another couple by the end of the episode.
[0:26:19] IP: Yes. So, breaking that down, RTX actually breaks down where the tariffs are
impacting its businesses. So RTX is the massive defense and aerospace contractor that owns,
among other things, Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney. So, they say $250 dollars of the
$850 will be because of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. $250 million will be on China-related
tariffs and then $300 million to just other general other countries, and then $50 million
specifically for the US's new aluminum and steel import tariffs.
So, an interesting breakdown from RTX on where they're seeing the biggest hit. But all that said,
their businesses are doing quite well. RTX saw a good quarter, especially Collins, which was up
28% year-in-year, and Pratt & Whitney turned a $580 million profit, which is up 41%.
[0:27:23] JR: Hey, that's great. That's enough financials. Financials are confusing. They're very
complex. There's a of stuff, with numbers, and letters being thrown all over. You know what?
Let's talk about something streamlined and simple, and not at all confusing. NOTAMs.
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[0:27:39] IP: Yes. NOTAMs. Fundamentally, the most understandable and clear set of ideas one
could think of.
[0:27:52] JR: Easily accessible too. It's definitely a modernized thing, no problem. You don't
have to sort through 50 pages telling you about birds 60 miles from the airport. Well, good news.
The FAA has, “Expedited a replacement for the NOTAM system.” There's some good stuff to
break down here.
[0:28:13] IP: There is some good stuff to break down, but I want to note very clearly.
[0:28:17] JR: I know where you're going with this. It is not a replacement of, I guess, the core
function of NOTAMs. We are not fixing the problem.
[0:28:25] IP: Yes, we're not fixing NOTAMs. We are fixing the systems.
[0:28:26] JR: We are fixing how you access the junk that is currently there. What is the quote
from Office Space? We're not, oh, I'm losing it at that.
[0:28:36] IP: It's still going to be garbage in, garbage out.
[0:28:39] JR: Yes, something like that.
[0:28:40] IP: But the garbage will come in faster and more reliably, and the garbage will come
out faster, more reliably, and in a text and geographical format more quickly.
[0:28:50] JR: It will be cloud-based because what could go wrong? It'll be fine. But the FAA, this
is something that does need to be done. It's something that has been planned for a long time.
But the FAA put out a release saying they are accelerating the modernization of a critical safety
system that alerts pilots and flight planners about airspace changes. And it's time again, “It is
time our technology enters the 21st century. And NOTAM modernization is the first step as we've
worked to deliver an all-new air traffic control system that makes air travel safer and more
efficient.”
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But I guess at the end of this, it's just going to be like you said, Ian, seeing the same junk that's
there just more reliably, hopefully. They do note that there were major NOTAM system outages
dating back to January 2023 and they've mitigated that a bit with some backup systems that
they can put into place if the main system does go out of service. But apparently, they have
selected a company called CGI to modernize it and have it in service by July 2025 with a
deployment and operational readiness date of September 2025. But Ian, you pointed out that
there's something fishy about those dates, isn't there?
[0:30:05] IP: Well, it's not so much that it's fishy. It's the fact that those are just the original
dates.
[0:30:11] JR: Oh, okay. Well, I mean, it is fishy that they're calling accelerated, but then they're
just matching the dates that they've already set forth.
[0:30:18] IP: I think what didn't happen is they never announced that it was never going to
happen on time. I think everyone knew that because that's just how these things work.
[0:30:28] JR: If they hadn't selected a vendor to do this –
[0:30:32] IP: You don't need it.
[0:30:32] JR: Yes. If they hadn't selected a vendor to do this until now, there was no way this
was ever going to happen. So, yes, this is, it's late April already to have something in place and
delivered by July and in service by September. That is an extremely accelerated timeframe to
do anything.
[0:30:48] IP: This is what gives me great pause for concern because the NOTAM system is for
all of our talk about how terrible it is. And yes, it is absolutely terrible.
[0:31:00] JR: It is.
[0:31:02] IP: It is also critical.
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[0:31:04] JR: Mission critical.
[0:31:04] IP: You cannot launch flights without the NOTAM system. And an accelerated
timeframe like this scares the bejesus out of me. Because it is April 23rd. That gives them May
and June and however much of July. Let's say it gives them all of July because when they say
deliver it by July, we'll say they give them the last day of July. So, that gives them roughly three
months and a week to understand the requirements of the system, figure out how to do it, do it,
test it, and deliver it.
[0:31:37] JR: Yikes. Just thinking about this is making me sweaty because it actually kind of
mirrors the timeline for a project I have at work, where I need to have something done by July
and a final thing done by September, October. And that's just like this little thing and that's giving
me angst. But to know that some private company is going to come in and totally detangle
something as tangled as the NOTAM system in just a couple of months, that's – and I don't
know about that.
[0:32:06] IP: So, here's what we don't know. This is why I'm not completely jittery about this. We
don't know how much work has already been done.
[0:32:16] JR: Yes.
[0:32:16] IP: So, it could be the fact that there was a contractor working on this, they've done
most of the work, and now there's just some implementation work to accomplish. Maybe that's
the case. From April to July, they just need to basically plug it in and test it, I hope. So hopefully,
this is in fact them saying, “Okay, we're going to work hard. We're going to do this faster than it
was going because this is critical. It needs to get done and we need to make sure that this
happens so that we can do other things that we want to do to modernize our airspace.”
[0:32:54] JR: Hey, there's nothing wrong with that. Accelerating stuff like this, I don't think
anyone would say the FAA has been particularly prompt in overhauling its technology. If this
administration wants to come in and more efficiently roll things out, go for it. But my
recommendation would be whatever the cut over date to the new NOTAM system ends up
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being, you probably don't want to fly that day. Let's just say, I can't imagine it being completely
seamless. Even in the best-case scenario, things are going to be weird.
[0:33:28] IP: Things invariably happen.
[0:33:30] JR: Maybe sit this one out if you can.
[0:33:31] IP: Keep an eye on that date, yes. Okay, let's go to Orlando and talk about the Delta
A330 that did its best impression of the Delta 717 fuselage that they've turned into a barbecue.
[0:33:45] JR: Oh, yes. The engine number two on the right side of the aircraft caught fire as it
was operating as Delta 1213 from Orlando to Atlanta. You may think that's a little weird that an
A330 was operating Orlando to Atlanta, but it happens all the time. It's a very high capacity
route. I think it operates like a dozen times a day. One of those endless capacity routes. It was a
legit fire, if you've probably seen the video.
[0:34:11] IP: This was not like a compressor stall, this was not – this was engine, do something
bad, engine, and some of the plane catch on fire.
[0:34:22] JR: Yes. This was one of the more legit fires you will see, not quite like British Airways
in Las Vegas.
[0:34:27] IP: No, not that.
[0:34:27] JR: That was a crispy aircraft. But this was a legitimate fire. And the evacuation, let's
say, did not go seamless. The flight attendants, the crew on board, they popped two exit doors
on the left side of the aircraft, one fully inflated and the L4 door towards the back of the aircraft.
Well, that slide didn't fully inflate and was not usable. Towards the end of the evacuation, the L3
door, that slide just went limp. Not sure what the circumstances are behind that one, if that was
after the evacuation or if the wind blew it or what happened. But I would say that this aircraft, it
was extremely unlikely if they were ever going to be able to evacuate in the 90 allowable
seconds with half the exits usable. Interestingly, they don't seem to have ever opened the L1
door, and I don't know why.
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AVT 317 Transcript
[0:35:21] IP: Yes, I noticed that. I don't know why either.
[0:35:23] JR: But at some point, the fire crews at Orlando, they were able to get the airstairs,
the ARF airstairs up to the rear left door of the aircraft and people were able to just walk off the
airplane, which is a lot safer than going down the slide where most injuries do occur. But
thankfully, there are no reports of injuries on this aircraft except for the A330, which Delta is
going to need to put some work into that particular aircraft.
[0:35:49] IP: It'll be back in service in no time. It's Delta.
[0:35:53] JR: No time at all. Unfortunately, didn't happen at Atlanta, happened at an outstation
at Orlando, so they're going to have to fly some of their magical elves down there and put this
thing back into service in, a couple extra minutes. It's going to take them.
[0:36:06] IP: Just tow it back up to Atlanta.
[0:36:08] JR: They can do that.
[0:36:09] IP: They could. Let's finish what we've got in the rundown and we'll go to Istanbul
where last week, Istanbul Airport became the third airport in the world and the first in Europe to
conduct triple parallel takeoffs. Istanbul Airport has a goal to serve 200 million passengers per
year. The only way to do that is to offer more flights. The only way to offer more flights is to have
more capacity. So, they said, “Okay, you know what, we can land three. Why not take off three?”
Which is harder than it sounds because there are a lot of special procedures that go into place
for both the flight crews and especially the air traffic controllers.
So, after all of that work, they finally began the triple parallel takeoffs last week. And they are
continuing on their way in Istanbul to try and take away from other major transit hubs, especially
in the Middle East. So, I think, Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, where those airlines have made their
business to move folks through their hubs. Istanbul and Turkish Airlines says we can do that too
because we have this giant new airport. This is just another step in that direction.
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AVT 317 Transcript
[0:37:27] JR: Yes, it looks pretty cool too if you do the playback where what the aircraft on the
far left runway turns right, the one on the far right turns right, and the one in the middle just
keeps on flying in a straight line, takes some good coordination, but it looks pretty sweet when
you do the playback.
The far right runway, I don't know the numbers offhand, but it's a bit offset from the other two
and way on the other side of the terminal complex, so there's a good bit of separation between
the runways here. But what other airports have a triple departure like this? I know it's the only
one in Europe, but are there any others in the world that do this kind of thing?
[0:38:02] IP: There are others in the world. I think that's a really good quiz question.
[0:38:06] JR: I don't know off the top of my head.
[0:38:09] IP: I didn't put it in the show notes. So, I think we're going to leave that one up to
listeners. What are the other two triple parallel departure airports, because there are many,
many, many airports around the world that have triple parallel landings.
[0:38:26] JR: Rivals. Yes. That's a different story. Departures.
[0:38:29] IP: But what are the other two that have triple parallel departures? Drop us a note at
podcast@fr24.com. If anybody gets the right answer, there might be a little something in it for
you.
[0:38:42] JR: Nice.
[0:38:42] IP: flyadeal, Jason. A low-cost carrier that needs some wide body capacity. How about
10 A330neos? What do you say?
[0:38:50] JR: Ah, yes. Transfer it over from everyone's favorite undisclosed airlines. I had no
idea, flyadeal was looking to expand into wide body long-haul operations. It is a subsidiary of
the Saudia Group, so I guess not all that surprising. Saudia's got a lot of backing behind it, so it
knows how to operate long-haul flights, but I did not know they were looking to expand the low-
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cost unit of the Saudia Group to long-haul. Saudia has got a lot going on in the Saudi Arabian
aviation market right now between the imminent rolling out of Riyadh Air, and also, in the very
other end of the spectrum, flyadeal. You have an ultra-premium airline launching in the same
country where we see an ultra-low-cost airline going into long-haul. So, very busy country right
now.
[0:39:41] IP: I mean, we can skip right down to Riyadh, which has begun proving flights. So,
that's exciting. And they unveiled what their cabin is going to look like this week in a, do we call
it four-class configuration? Three-and-a-half-class? How do we –
[0:39:57] JR: Three-and-a-half-class is all the rage now. It's economy, premium economy,
business, and business plus, which is just your bulkhead front of cabin. It's got a bit of extra
wiggle room seat, so not quite four cabin, three and a half, until they have an actual first-class
cabin, then it's four and a half cabins.
[0:40:16] IP: Four and a half? Yes. There you go. They also have the first aircraft painted in, I
guess, what's going to be the standard Riyadh Air livery, not the super purple-y one, where the
front half of the fuselage is white with the giant billboard titles, and then you have that lilac and
purple in the rear of the fuselage. They've done a very, I think, nice job with the Zoro mask on
the 787. It comes to a point near the door, and I haven't seen it head-on. We have just one
photo on the Jet Photos that has a view of that, but I like how they've done that. It's not just kind
of a rounded mess. They've given it a little bit of flair.
[0:41:01] JR: Yes, it's nice. Oh, jeez, I just got another text message that, “Hey, why not toss
this PSA?” And, “Hey, real ID enforcement begins on May 7th at PSA checkpoints at an airport in
New York.” It won't stop. It won't stop. So, I figure why not bring that to everyone else? It won't
stop. For some background, if you don't follow me on – shout out to that week. I don't think we
have. I have signed up for SMS and email alerts from the Port Authority of New York and New
Jersey, the operator entity of the New York airports because I want to know when the air train
doesn't work, and I want to know when something else is wrong at the airports because there's
no other way really to proactively know.
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AVT 317 Transcript
Typically, it's, “Oh, you know, the Newark air train's broken or the Newark air train's going to be
offline this weekend,” because of course it is. But they have been sending out the same
message that says, “Real ID enforcement begins 5/7 at TSA checkpoints, board info at tsa.gov,”
three times a day, every day, all week. I'm starting to lose my mind a little bit. The time to include
all of you. If you don't have a real ID, May 7th is coming up. We talked about it last week where,
hey, maybe it's going to be delayed again and people want it to be delayed, but we're getting
dangerously close to that date.
[0:42:17] IP: If it does go into force, we'll talk about how that impacts the airports. Where are we
going next? How about Australia?
[0:42:25] JR: Okay, we're going down on there.
[0:42:27] IP: If the pay is right.
[0:42:28] JR: If the pay is right, unconfirmed reports say from Reddit that nine air traffic
controllers at the Albuquerque FAA Center have resigned to accept positions at Air Services
Australia, the government-owned ATC organization. Typically, I would say we don't really cover
things that are not yet confirmed, but we see it on AvWeb, which is confirming reports on Reddit
that air traffic controllers are just getting up –
[0:42:54] IP: Interesting, nonetheless.
[0:42:55] JR: And quitting and leaving because there's better pay and better stability elsewhere.
That's a big part of it. We know the FAA has been understaffed forever, really all air traffic
control entities everywhere have been understaffed for a long time. But things are not great at
the FAA, especially when you get random emails on a Monday morning say, “Hey, do you want
to resign? We'll give you some money if you leave.” So, very weird time. But if this is actually
true, that nine air traffic controllers at one control center have put in their resignation letters,
that's going to get really bad, really quick in that air space.
[0:43:33] IP: That'll be interesting to see how widespread that becomes.
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[0:43:37] JR: Yes, air traffic controller poaching.
[0:43:39] IP: Albuquerque seems kind of like Australia. Let's recruit them.
[0:43:41] JR: Yes, sure. Why not?
[0:43:44] IP: Hey, congratulations to Thailand, which has regained FAA category one, it's FAA
category one safety rating, which means it can expand service and launch new service in the
US. So, I'll take it.
[0:44:02] JR: Yes, this was a long time coming. It was knocked down to category two, it being
Thailand, in 2015. So, a very long time and we thought the knocking down of Mexico to category
two lasted a long time. This was a lot longer. So, this means presumably That Airways will be
able to launch non-stop flights to the US once again, and it will be able to ink co-chairs and
other sorts of fun agreements with US airlines that it has not been able to do since 2015, a full
decade. That's crazy. Hey, that's exciting. Thailand's a very popular destination right now, so I
wouldn't expect it to take very long for them to at least try to get a non-stop flight to the US.
[0:44:43] IP: I want to say, every other week or so, another airline is adding service to Bangkok,
so it's certainly popular in many locations, so now that they have access to the US, I think that's
going to be a very good thing for them.
Let's end the show with a bit of a fun thing. We've talked about undisclosed airlines and all of
that good, fun stuff, how many times I don't know, that it's become enough of a joke that an
undisclosed podcast listener went and did something very nice for us.
[0:45:14] JR: Wait, this wasn't you?
[0:45:17] IP: No.
[0:45:16] JR: You told me about this, but I just assumed it was you.
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[0:45:19] IP: No, this was not me. This was a nice, very nice podcast listener who went out and
did this. So, if you're listening to the show and you're thinking to yourself, “What can I do?” You
can go to undisclosedairlines.com is what you can do. So, we're going to have to figure out
something fun to do with this now that we have access to this. But thank you to the undisclosed
listener who has gone out and purchased that domain.
[0:45:46] JR: That’s hilarious.
[0:45:47] IP: On that note, this has been Episode 317 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here as
always with –
[0:45:58] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
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