1013: Week 1 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachariesen in this episode oney thirteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. I've teamed up with DraftKings to kick off Week one. Head over to DraftKings. Deposit five dollars and get rewarded with one DFS ticket for Week one and play free for your shot at a share of millions. The ticket reward amount varies and is based on deposit, but make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round Today. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler or eight seven seven eight hope en wyre Tex Hope NY to four six seven three six nine in New York. Help is available for problem gambling Call eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Connecticut eighteen plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibilit restrictions apply. Void were prohibited one per customer, minimum five dollars deposit required. Ticket rewards or site credit's only valid for use on eligible DFS. Contest Ticket awards are single use and expire nine to eight to twenty five at eight to twenty pm Eastern See terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions sponsored by DraftKings. Through the years, there's been one consistent piece of feedback with this sleeper show. I talk about way too many deep sleepers. In the past, I've looked at players roster in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and then I've looked at another bucket of players under the ten percent mark, and that's too low of a threshold. So this season, I'm changing it up. I'm gonna looking at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues as one bucket, talking through some guys that I generally like more than the market that week. Then I'll dig into players that are rostered in that twenty percent to fifty percent range, and then from there I'll find players who are rostered in fewer than twenty percent of leagues who you may want to consider starting. And I'm not going to come at you with just loads and loads of players. I want to be as thoughtful as I can with the players that I'm picking. So we're looking at like five to seven players per tier some weeks last year that number was closer to ten to twelve. When I mentioned names on this show, I'm not saying start them no matter what. Just for the record, I'm simply giving you options. Some of you may be in a pinch and you may need some help off the waiver wire. Others may be looking to gather some information on matchups. Whatever the case may be, know that the sleepers on this show they're sleepers for a reason. Teams in your league don't have them rostered. They're not the best fantasy football assets in the world. Now, I'll do my best to give you context for where I have these guys ranked. But if you're ever curious about precisely where I have them ranked, you can always check out the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. I'm posting weekly rankings over there for the Insider tier. With all that out of the way, let's look at Week one sleepers. Now, as I said, this first group of sleepers consisted of players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. And we'll kick things off with the only quarterback that I have in this group, and that's Trevor Lawrence. Lawren's hopefully got upgrades across the board this season. There's Travis Hunter, who sounds like he's gonna play more offense than defense to start the year. There's an improved backfield, they have base shall touton now, and most importantly, Liam Cohen is coaching this team. We just watched Cohen lead the Buccaneers as one of the best offenses in football. And Baker Mayfield had a career year and part of that career year was Baker Mayfield getting it done more on the ground with his legs, and that's what I'm really eager to see with Lawrence. Te law actually has used his mobility quite a bit throughout his career. He's never finished the season with fewer than two point seven rushing points per game. That's way higher than where Baker was at prior to last year, and Baker finished the season last year with three point three points per game via the rush. The Jacks get the Panthers this week in a game that has a solid forty six and a half point total that gives Jacksonville this sixth highest team total on the slate, and Carolina, according to PFF, is entering the season with a third worst secondary in football. Lawrence is a great play and you should be using him over players who are drafted over him, like Justin Fields and Caleb Williams. I think it's a fringe top ten quarterback this week now in that same game as Tank Bigsby, who's rostered in eighty percent of leagues at the time of this recording. I do still prefer Traves Etn to Tank Bigsby this week because I'm not sure the pass catching is on Bigsby's side. But Caroline is coming off a season where they were by far the worst team at stopping running backs in Fantasy football, and Bigsby still projects to see the most work on the ground in that offense. And like I said, that offense could score a lot of points. It's a game that could be higher scoring, so you can look his way if you need someone in the flex. Now, one player who I have ranked below Bigsby but could be a cheap option if you're in a deeper league is Javonte Williams. Now the matchup against Philly, it's not a great matchup, but the Cowboy a pretty big underdogs, and Williams, at least early on in the season, is more than likely going to play the hurry up role. In that Dallas offense. Not only did he see a solid twelve point eight percent target share last year in Sean Payton's offense, but the Broncos used Williams on sixty one percent of their long down and distance snaps ac cording of Fantasy Life data, that was by far the most on the team. So there's definitely a scenario here where Javonte Williams sees the most work on the ground for Dallas. That's what we're projecting. And then all the while he'll see by far the most snaps due to a possible negative game script hitting and if that happens, he can come away with flexworthy numbers even in a tough matchup. Now, at wide receiver Josh Downs, Miami secondary has a chance to be really bad this year, and in the slot this week, they're gonna be playing Jason Marshall Junior. He's a rookie fifth round pick out of Florida. Downs is coming off a year where he saw a target on twenty nine percent of his routes run Among one hundred plus target get wide receivers last year, only Malik Neighbors in pukin Akua could match that number. I think downs could have a really big game. Now, I don't have a tight end in this tier this week, so the last player I want to talk about is Darnell Mooney. As I said in the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week, Mooney was one of the best deep ball receivers in football last year, only Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton had more fifteen plus air yard receptions. Only Jefferson, George Pickens, and DK Metcalf, according to PFF, had more twenty yard receptions. That pairs really well with Michael Pennix, who finished last season with the second highest average depth of target among quarterbacks among qualified quarterbacks. And the Falcons get a Tampa Bay secondary this week that ranks as a below average one entering the season according to PFF. That game also has one of the higher totals on this slate. It could be high scoring. So if Mooney's able to go, he's been recovering from that shoulder injury, I'm cool with him as like a wide receiver for maybe even a wide receiver three type. Next, we're looking at players rosterman in twenty percent to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues and we'll start a quarterback with Bryce Young. Now, I already mentioned that the Jags and Panthers game could be higher scoring, and Bryce Young is obviously gonna be part of that. But also, like I talked about earlier in the week, Young was actually not bad when he returned from the bench last season. Over his final ten games post benching, he averaged eighteen standard Fantasy points per game while averaging five points per game via rushing. With Ttero McMillan now in the mix a wide receiver, Young has a real shot to be fantasy viable, especially in a good game environment like this one. I'd be fine playing Bryce Young over the quarterbacks in the Chicago Minnesota game, and I think he's in the same tier as someone like Justin Herbert. Michael Pennix is the other quarterback to shout out here. Now, I like Bryce Young Moore, but like I said, with Darnell Mooney, the Falcons passing attack has a plus matchup in what should be a higher scoring game against the Buccaneers. Pennix may not bring a ton of juice with his legs, but as long as Mooney is back and healthy, he's got a shot to post some big passing numbers. Last year, the Bucks had one of the highest adjusted passing yards per game allowed in all of football. Now at running back, you could look at the Cleveland backfield of the two Jerome Ford and Dylan Samson. This week, I do prefer Ford. The Browns get a great matchup against the Bengals and Ford, like I said on yesterday's ten Trends episode, he's the veteran presence in that backfield with the most two minute and long down and distant snaps for Cleveland last year. By far, the Browns are big underdogs. I'm expecting a decent bit more forward than Samson in Week one. He could bring some PPR upside. Ollie Gordon's the other guy to call out in this tier Devon a Chan He's gonna get his, but he's also coming off that calf injury. He's also never been like an eighty percent running back rush share player. He was at a sub sixty percent running back rush share last year. There's plenty of work to be had for Allie Gordon and he could have a decent day against this Colts defense. Christian Kirk is going to be playing a lot in a slot this year, and my guess is that he starts the year out playing in two wide receiver sets as long as he's healthy, and that's just given the inexperience that the Texans have at wide receiver. I'm a little bit worried about how this Texans offensive line is going to hold up, just in general, but definitely this week against the Rams. The Rams last year were able to generate pressure at the tenth highest rate in football. That could result in some easier lower aid dot looks from CJ. Stroud to Christian Kirk. That would really benefit Kirk out of the slot, and with him likely running more routes than he will later in the season as some of these rookies develop, now might be the time to use him. Cedric Tillman's also pretty interesting this week. The Browns should see that negative game sert like I talked about against Cincinnati, but even if they don't, the Bengals are entering the season with a bottom ten secondary according to PFF. Tilman last season was averaging a twenty two percent target chair per game rate during the a month before his season ending injury. If that type of share continues with Joe Flacco, then Tilman could be in store for a really great week, and then at tight end Chigaconquo, as I've been saying, he had a wild route participation rate with cam Ward in the preseason. And there's no obvious number two option in Tennessee Denver, who they face this week. They have a great defense, and Calvin Ridley could be occupied by Patrick Surtan. If a negative game script hits for Tennessee, a Conquo could be one of the players in that offense who benefits most. We're now onto players roster in fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues, and look, if you have to start one of these guys in Week one, then you're either in a super deep league or you had a super bad draft. Regardless, I have some options for you, Joe Flacco. If I'm talking about Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson and Cedric Tillman, I should probably mention Flaco too, right, the Bengals surrendered bottom ten numbers to quarterbacks last year when adjusted for strength of opponent, and Flacco so the last time he was in Cleveland he gave us five top fifteen performances and five regular season starts. The Browns will have to keep pace with his Bengals offense and passing volume is the way that's going to have to happen. That makes Flacco a low end QB two option. Now I've got Danny Dimes ranked below Flacco, but I don't like totally despise him either, because, like I said, the Dolphins have problems in their secondary and Indianapolis has weapons all over that offense, and sportsbooks are recognizing this too. The Colts actually have the twelveth best implied team total on this week slate. Dimes, as we know, can bring a little something extra with his legs too, so I think he's most definitely in streaming territory here in Week one. Now, my lone running back in this tier is Chris Rodriguez. The Giants aren't necessarily an ideal matchup, but with Bill Krosky Merritt being a first year player, it's hard to envision him having this massive workload in Week one. The Commanders have come out and they talked about Rodriguez being their short yardage and goal line guy, and if they do hit a positive game script, which is very possible because they're six point favorites, then Rodriguez could benefit. And Washington has the third best implied team total. On this week's slate, We're gonna go back to that Jacksonville Carolina game with this next one. In shout out xavierly Get. I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions episode how I don't personally think Lagett is like the answer for Carolina, like the number one obvious answer, But I've been wrong plenty in the past, and I still think he's capable of like a twenty percent target share. He'll play full time snaps, and his route share should be really strong, So I'm willing to throw him out there as an option within this game that I think could be high scoring. The Mario Douglas has basically been New England's best wide receiver over his two years in the league. That might not be saying much, but he was barely second on the team in yards per out run as a rookie at one point seven zero, and that season as a rookie, he had a target's PERU run rate of point twenty four. Last year, his numbers fell, but both of those numbers for to Mario Douglas were best on the team. I'm interested to see how fast paced his opponent this week. Vegas plays on offense with Chip Kelly. If Kelly runs the offense at the pace that he did the last time he was in the NFL, it's gonna allow opposing offenses to also run more plays. Now, that might not happen, but it's a nice upside piece for this plus matchup for New England. Vegas has PFF's worst secondary entering this season, and then one more wide receiver to call out here, Alamide's Akias. Luther Burton got a slow start to camp with an injury, and it allowed Alamide's Achias to sort of carve out a slot role in that Bears offense. My guess is that he's gonna be the primary slot guy against Minnesota, and with Minnesota's front, I think Caleb Williams might be looking for those quick outlet throws that's gonna help Zakias. He's a deeper sleeper for sure, but I think he could be a nice PPR option. And then I'll go with one tight this year, and that's Kate Oughton. Last year, only Trey McBride had a higher route participation rate at tight end across the league than Kate Oughton did. We saw Auten come through with some big games when the wide receivers were banged up for Tampa Bay last year, and right now we're looking at just Mike Evans and rookie of mechag Buca. Those are the only guys who are locked in target getters, so Auton in a game where Tampa Bay has a shot to score a lot of points against Atlanta, he makes a lot of sense. Now at the end of these episodes, I'm gonna throw out some streaming defenses that you can look at off the waiver wire, and I'll keep it quick, because that's the point of these episodes. Arizona was a fifteen transactions defense this week because they're near touchdown road favorites against Spencer Rattler and the Saints. Washington works as well against Russell Wilson and the Giants. Russ played just eleven games last year, He's still finished in the top fifteen in sacks taken. And speaking of sacks, the Rams could have their way with that Houston offensive line this week. I mentioned that with Christian Kirk, but I love the Ram as sort of a sneaky streamer, and then New England could work too. That game against Vegas is a forty three and a half point total and the Raiders of a bottom ten implied total on this week's slate. So those are the four choices this week, the Cardinals, Commanders, Rams, and Patriots in that order. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shredding for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found in diffort to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Enjoy football tonight everyone. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow with a new Mailbag episode and a new episode of Late Round Perspectives.