420: 10 Trends for Week 4

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Round Podcast with your host JJ Zachera j Jake zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandled at number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and twenty of the Late Round Podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Betting on the NBA Finals is great. Betting on the NBA Finals risk free is even better. Fandel's Sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on Game one of the Finals risk free with their exclusive single game parlays. Simply place a three leg or more parlay for Game one prior to tip off to be eligible for the offer, and follow along as the game unfolds. If you don't win your bet, Fandel will refund your bet up to ten dollars in site credit. What do you have to lose? For more details was a sportsbook dot Fandel dot com must be twenty one years old. Gambling problem called one eight hundred. Gambler Le's get to this week's ten trends. Cede LAMB had a sixteen point two percent target share in week one, almost a twenty percent target share in week two and then in week three that dropped a ten point seven percent. He also saw his snap rate drop from eighty two percent during his first two weeks to sixty percent against the Seahawks. It appeared as though Lamb was a little bit banged up in that game, so I'm not looking too hard into this. It could be a reason we saw Cedric Wilson do what he did, with Wilson playing sixteen snaps from the slot in that game. Keep playing Cede Lamb as you usually would, but keep an eye on the injury report this week. The only four players with a twenty five percent target share or better in each of their first three games so far this year are DeAndre Hopkins, Alan Robinson, Keenan Allen, and Odell Beckham. Keenan Allen seems to be clicking with Justin Herbert. We've got to keep in mind that they had really good matchups over the last two weeks, especially last week against Carolina. Alan Robinson finally ended up scoring this past week. Hopkins is bawling out, and then there's Obj. Despite his target share being so strong, it's still hard to call him a by low. This is basically exactly what we saw last year from Odell Beckham. I'm still looking at him more as a hold than a bye. Joe Mixon leads the league in running back rush share. He's seen ninety six point three percent of Cincinnati's running back rushes in twenty twenty. The problem is he's still seen just a six point six percent target share. So things are pretty in line with what we've seen historically with Joe Mixon. If there's one piece of optimism to grab onto and run with, it's not just that they get Jacksonville this week, but it's that Joe Burrow looks legit. If the Bengals continue to improve offensively, touchdowns and more opportunity will come for Joe Mixon. But like OBJ, I still view mix And more as a hole than a bye. You guys know how I am with running backs who don't catch a ton of passes. The hope is that Mixing would be used more as a receiver this year, but that hasn't happened yet. After seeing eighty four percent of Pittsburgh's running back rushes in Week two, James Connor saw that share drop to fifty six percent in Week three. This is just something a monitor moving forward. The Steelers got all of their running backs involved this past week. That can't be the best sign in the world for James Connor, but I wouldn't be overly panicked about the usage since he's still seeing a decent enough target share. The Jets have by far the lowest pass to rush ratio and neutral game scripts this year at point five to seven. But here's the thing. They've also ran just eleven blays in total when games have been within six points. Both of the LA teams are the only teams with neutral script ratios under point nine right now, aside from the Jets, and those teams plus Cleveland, New England, and Minnesota all have run the ball more than they've thrown it when games have been that close. But that's the trend. Those are the most run heavy teams in football so far. Trend six is that Austin Eckler has seen a twelve point nine percent and twenty two point nine percent target share in his two games with Justin Herbert. That number was just three point five percent with Tyrod Taylor in Week one. You guys might remember in Week one where I talked about Eckler on this show on this podcast. In the fifteen Transactions episode and I called him a hold, the main reason being they were facing Kansas City and Carolina in weeks two and week three. If the Chargers go back to Tyrod Taylor, I'm gonna be nervous again. We all should be nervous. We should have some concerns given that Week one usage, But for now, Eckler is back to being a very usable starter for your fantasy teams, though I wish he was the goal line back in then offense to really give us a super high ceiling. Nick Chubb hasn't finished a single game with a target share above five percent this year. For some context, he averages seven point five percent target share per game. When Kareem Hunt returned to action last year, Cleveland's targeted their running backs on twenty and a half percent of their targeted throws, which is actually pretty average compared to the rest of the league. But this, along with the fact that Chubb continues to see pretty average running back rush share numbers, those are the reasons I'm still I'm not super high on him from here on out. I still view him more as an RB two than an RB one despite what he did in Week three, and like I said on yesterday's show. I'll take the l at the end of the season if I need to. I'm just being honest with how I see this situation. New Orleans has targeted their wide receivers on just forty point nine percent of their targeted attempts this year. They haven't targeted wide receivers at that low over rate since twenty thirteen, and they're wide outs last year had a fifty two percent share. They actually haven't been below fifty percent since twenty fourteen. So much of this has to do with Michael Thomas being out and I'm just force feeding Alvin Kamara. But Drew Brees also has tied for last in the league and deep ball rate. He's thrown at fifteen plus air yards on just eight point seven percent of his throws. It's not a very fun offense for fantasy football unless you've got Alvin Kamara on your team. Trends nine to ten are all about the Seattle Seahawks because they've become one of the most fun teams in fantasy football, not just because of Russell Wilson either, but because of the defense. And speaking of that defense, get this, the Seahawks have given up seventy six wide receiver receptions and one one hundred and thirty six wide receiver yards. This year. The next closest teams have allowed forty nine wide receiver receptions and seven hundred and thirty six wide receiver yards. You've got to start players against the Seahawks right now, and then the last trend this week. This is a quick show. It's about Russell Wilson. Since twenty eleven, quarterbacks have thrown a passing touchdown for every one hundred and sixty one or so yards. So far this year, Russell Wilson has thrown one for every sixty six passing yards. Based on NAT alone, he's thrown over eight more touchdowns than he should have. He has a thirteen point six percent touchdown rate that's significantly higher than the NFL record. He's very unlikely going to come close to maintaining this, but it looks like we're probably in store for one of those outlier type seasons. I would be shocked if that touchdown rate drops to his career average of six point two percent. The Seahawks are far more pass heavy this year, and that's gonna help Wilson maintain pretty amazing numbers. I'm here for letting Russ cook. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and no forgets to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. I know this show is quick every week, but I hope you enjoyed it. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Matchup show