461: Mailbag 12/11/20

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachera j Jake zacher reefon.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyese and the editor in chief has Fandle on a number five dot com in this episode four hundred and sixty one of the Late Round Podcast the many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Betting on the NFL is great. Betting on the NFL. Fandels Sportsbook that's even better. Right now, FANDL Sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on the NFL season with reduced risk with their exclusive same game parlay insurance.

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Speaker 2: You know.

00:02:31
Speaker 1: It's funny sometimes my advice really really helps someone and really really hurt someone else. Like, for instance, I remember early on in this show, I was early as a sixteenth transaction in one of the fifteen transaction shows, I was early on T Higgins and Chase Claypool. I've had people thank me for being on T. Higgins and Claypool, but I have others who don't even remember that stuff. What they remember is me being low on Stefan Diggs entering the season. So this obviously depends on who's answering that question of did you have a good year or not. I do think I was high around players like James Robinson and Deontay Johnson this year.

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Speaker 2: Those were good hits.

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Speaker 1: But like I said, I wasn't very high on Stephan Diggs and I also wasn't very high on Keaton Allen.

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Speaker 2: Those were big misses. I will say, though, I think my.

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Speaker 1: General draft strategy this year, I think that was on point. I think draft strategy is a reason why my teams are doing fine. But I got a few questions like this one this week to talk about biggest hits and biggest misses. And just so you guys know, I do two podcasts in January every single year where I walk through this. I go through my biggest misses on one show, see what went wrong, and then I do the opposite on another show. It's a good way for me to hold myself accountable while also refining my process.

00:03:41
Speaker 2: This asked questions from at never.

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Speaker 1: Wide right when looking at projections to choose starters on Sunday is a bad process to go through and look at things like wide receiver cornerback matchups, game totals, game script, et cetera. If I like the site, i'd assume they've done this already. So I feel like I might be double counting certain things. I can pretty much assure you that you wouldn't be double counting things, because a lot of what you're talking about can be subjective. Like game totals themselves are not subjective, but the application of game totals that is subjective. How heavily a projection system or a person weighs that stuff has some subjectivity. Not only that, but I would advise anyone who's looking at different sites for fantasy advice to not make assumptions. It's why it's always important to read what analysts are saying and why they like or don't like certain players. Don't just read a rankings list and say I'm going with this. Look at the why. Understand the why. Now, I can tell you that number fires projections, which are built by an algorithm and constantly monitored throughout the week, they're pretty strong as a baseline. But if you're looking strictly at a projection system, my guess is that they're not weighing something like cornerback matchups nearly as heavily as you might think. So if you want to manually adjust based on perceived cornerback matchup, feel free. But also add it's very easy to overstate those matchups. I just don't know exactly how you're using projections and advice, so I can't tell you exactly what to change here. This last Christ says can you trust Pittman rest of season? With Hilton starting to show signs of life? So, as I alluded to on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, because of the Colts schedule, I think that you've got to hold on to both Michael Pittman and t Y Hilton. The main problem is that they're both still only reliable in deeper leagues or maybe as wide receiver threes like. Don't let recency bias totally overshadow that t Y Hilton has sucked this year in fantasy football. His thirty one percent target share last week was great, but he also had a twelve percent target share the week before that. The bottom line here is that the cults spread things around and it's very frustrating. So either guy can have a big week in a plus matchup, it's just not going to be super predictable. That's why technically you can't really trust either wide receiver, but I'd still hold on to them because things happen and players get hurt, and they wouldn't be terrible replacements given their schedule in weeks fourteen and fifteen. This test question says any defenses or players with exceptional Week fifteen matchups to pick up this week for teams with a first round by Yeah. So look, I've tried to bring this up on my shows over the last month or so to help you guys out here, but I'll lay it out again since I got this question a few times this week. Cleveland is one defense that may be out there still because they get Baltimore this week, but they get both New York teams in weeks fifteen and sixteen. I know, I sound like a broken record. I've brought this up on the show so many times, but they should be added. I'd also say that a lot of people want there to be like this, really clear clean answer here, this one singular plug and play defense doesn't always work like that. So let's go ahead and look at week fifteen only real quick, and keep in mind the percent roster for defenses this time of year.

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Speaker 2: It shoots up, so there aren't really low.

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Speaker 1: Roster defenses to choose from right now, so I'll be a little bit looser with my restrictions. But Minnesota gets Chicago, they're roster in about half of Yahoo leagues.

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Speaker 2: They work.

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Speaker 1: You can go Buffalo against Denver in week fifteen if they're available. Arizona gets Philadelphia, San Francisco gets Dallas. Any of those defenses work. But again, hopefully you were able to take advantage of the fifteen Transactions recommendations over the last few weeks, and you have a team like Cleveland or Seattle in week sixteen, it's not as pretty. Philly gets Dallas. You could go there. The Chargers get Denver, that's a good play, and then Arizona.

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Speaker 2: Gets San Francisco. That might work.

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Speaker 1: But again, all of this is a big reason I was trying to plan ahead with defenses on the fifteen Transactions episode because the options based on percent roster numbers they aren't that great in weeks fifteen and sixteen. But those are some defenses that you can at least consider. This has question from at Desperado twenty eight. You have been using adjusted Fantasy points allowed frequently this year? Have you looked into rather this as predictive as opposed to descriptive. Isn't there a lot of sample size noise? I mean, look, there's a whole lot of sample size noise in everything that we do with football analysis. I can tell you that schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed is better than just regular fantasy points allowed, though, but yeah, it's not the end all. You shouldn't be making decisions simply based off of adjusted points allowed or fantasy points allowed. It's why I always lead my non quarterback analysis with volume, and it's why I reference team totals and pace and game environment and all those factors that go into whether or not a player should be started.

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Speaker 2: But I do think.

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Speaker 1: People should understand that most data in fantasy football isn't ultra predictive. Like the good predictive metrics in fantasy would not fly in other industries.

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Speaker 2: But all these pieces sort of.

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Speaker 1: Come together like a puzzle, and they tell us whether or not we should start a player. Not one metric is going to tell us everything. This ask questions from at pardon my French, on a week to week basis, how do you determine which quarterback to start? It's easy when you have just an obvious player. But in one of my single quarterback dynasty leagues, I have Lamar and Justin Herbert. That's a good problem to have. I often find myself picking the wrong quarterback when I look at matchups, so I don't really know how to answer the how do you determine which quarterback to start?

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Speaker 2: Question?

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Speaker 1: Because there are so many factors each week. But that's what the matchup show is for. I talk through the process and the things that I look at when making a decision at each position. So for quarterbacks, I'm looking at game totals and game environment stuff to go along with the individual matchups that quarterbacks might be able to exploit, things like pressure rate and so on. Sometimes those decisions are a fifty to fifty coin flip, and sometimes it bites you in the you know what when it doesn't go your way. That happens in fantasy football. You guys have to accept this. You're going to make bad start sit decisions. Sometimes I do it. I made one that knocked me out of the playoffs. I have the third most points in the league, and because of this really bad start sit decision that I made the other week, I'm now out of the playoffs. But I look back and I ask myself was this logical? And if it was logical, I try not to be that upset over it, because this is a process over results game. If you have a sound process, if you're making the right decisions when those decisions have to be made, then you're doing it right. The result will not always favor you. There's only one league champion at the end of the year. Of course you want it to be you, and of course it doesn't always go your way. But if you're smart with it and you're logical, then you're going to win out in the long run. But on top of this, what I also think happens is that we fall victim to negativity bias.

00:10:34
Speaker 2: You may have not done well in choosing your quarterbacks this year.

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Speaker 1: That's going to happen in a small sample, but negativity bias also can creep in. Negativity bias is when things more negative in nature have a greater effect on someone's psychological state and process. You remember those negative experiences and you adjust your process more based on those negative experiences. So, for instance, I remember this start sit choice from two weeks ago, and it eats at me because I would have made the playoffs, and I probably had a shot at the title because my roster's really good. But what I don't think about are the good decisions that I made, the good decisions that got me wins, because those are almost assumed. It's assumed that you make good decisions, that your process led to a good result, and then we just remember the ones where a good process led to a bad result. That's negativity bias. So I would say that before any of us get upset about always making the wrong start sit decisions, make sure that number one, you're recognizing the small sample sizes that we work within, and that number two, you're not only remembering the negative side of things, because that can overshadow what could otherwise be a totally normal and fine process. This last question is from at Bodentown. In this week's fifteen Transactions, you alluded to Atlanta's defense being a good matchup for the Chargers, But hasn't the Atlanta defense performed much better in recent weeks. The Falcons defense has been better in general since Rahem Morris took over, and I think regression was going to naturally hit that defense a little bit too. Defenses that perform poorly generally get a little bit better as the season goes on, and then the opposite is true too. It's just how small samples work. But even still, Taysom Hill last week threw for over two hundred and thirty yards in a pair of scores. That was a nice uptick over what he did the last time that he faced Atlanta in his first career start. Drew Lock in week nine came through even though someone that was in garbage time. Kirk Cousins in week six was a top ten quarterback. Atlanta's not as good of a matchup as they were maybe in like week three, but there's still a good matchup. They're still good enough. I do have some concerns this week because the line isn't as high as I might have expected. And look, there's always the chance at Herbert tanks.

00:12:44
Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 1: I'm not calling him a locke, but I would definitely still call Atlanta a good matchup versus a bad one. This that's christ is from at R Kilmer twenty three. Does your start sit process change in the playoffs when you are the perceived underdog. No, it doesn't change because it's the same game. Nothing changes in fantasy football from the regular season to the playoffs, you're still playing the exact same game that you were playing before. If you're a perceived underdog in the regular season and you need some upside, you might roll the dice on more ambiguity. That's no different in the playoffs. If you need upside, you might go for a player like Jalen Hurts over a lower ceiling quarterback because we don't know exactly what Hurts is bringing to the table, but we do know that there's rushing upside potential. So for instance, and I'm recording this before the Thursday night game, so I could sound like an idiot, but I'm putting myself out there.

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Speaker 2: I don't care.

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Speaker 1: I'm starting Jalen Hurts over Jared Goff this week. I don't like Jared Goff's matchup at all, and I do need a little bit of upside in this particular matchup, and I see Goff as having a pretty low ceiling in this matchup. Again, you're gonna be listening to this on Friday, maybe Saturday, and I might sound like an absolute moron because Jared Goff might have gone off on Thursday night. I think process wise, it makes sense for my team in that moment to choose Jalen Hurts. Now, I don't think Hurts is this like great play this week, But overall, you shouldn't approach the playoffs really all that differently than the regular season in any normal format.

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Speaker 2: Do what got you there?

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Speaker 1: This vis question is from at dip Underscore sand In the playoffs, would you rather play it safe and start your studs against tougher matchups such as Diggs versus Pittsburgh or roll the dice and start guys with more favorable matchups that aren't considered studs at the moment, such as Tyler Boyd versus Dallas.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so just to.

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Speaker 1: Reiterate, your process really shouldn't change because it's the playoffs. Get that idea out of your head. The goal is the exact same. You're trying to score the most Fantasy points.

00:14:43
Speaker 2: And I think this.

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Speaker 1: Start your stud idea is mostly dumb because it's subjective. It's not like we have this list of players who are studs and a list of players who aren't. Now that being said, if you're talking about Stefan Diggs, he should be started. It's not like the Steelers' secondary is this shut down unit. And if you're looking at someone like Lloyd who sure he has a good matchup, but he's in a way less desirable situation, and I'm going to always in that case lean towards the player in a better offense who should see more volume and is honestly in a game that has a higher scoring ceiling. I know I don't answer start sick questions on here, but I think this was more of a process question. Always lean volume first, and only really cared that much about matchups that much about matchups at the extremes. This last question is from at Zachary Underscore MJ hey JJ, who are some streaming quarterbacks that you see could lead to fantasy championships. I've been riding with Taysom Hill for a few weeks now, but with breeze looming, Hill will no longer be an option for me. So yeah, we'll see what happens with Drew Brees, but I'll do what I did with the defenses earlier on the show and just shout out some lower roster quarterbacks with good matchups in weeks fifteen and sixteen. In Week fifteen, you might be able to play Jalen Hurts, depending on how he does against New Orleans and that's why he was a transaction earlier this week. Philip Rivers gets Houston, which I mentioned earlier this week. If Matthew Stafford is out there, which he is in forty percent of Yahoo leagues, he gets Tennessee, maybe Teddy against the Packers. Those are really the only guys I have decent confidence in who might be on your waiver. Wire Drew Lock faces Buffalo, but I wouldn't want to trust Drew Lock or even Alex Smith against Seattle. I wouldn't really want to trust them with so much on the line. In Week sixteen, Hurtz gets Dallas, Baker Mayfield gets the Jets, Tua gets the Raiders, and Mitch Trubisky gets the Jags. I will say I'm not meaning to call anyone out here specifically, but I do think these types of questions they showcase the need to plan ahead. It's hard to give specific advice for your league because I don't know who's available, but it's important to have a strong plan at quarterback and defense as we enter the playoffs, because fantasy managers start to hoard those positions as we move closer to the end of the season because they don't need running back and wide receiver depth as much, so that's something to keep in mind for next season. But that's gonna do it for today show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and ne't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, good luck in the playoffs this weekend. I will talk to you next week.