Week 11 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're still riding high after taking Tyler Schuck as a road underdog last week. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm here in the Chris Westleying podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Frielan, who was riding high off the fumes of some confusing jet lags. Since this show last week, she's gone to Berlin. She's come back, and she's probably on like her fourth or fifth show this week already back here, So welcome back.

00:00:31
Speaker 2: Thanks. That was a quick trip. It was cool.

00:00:33
Speaker 1: It was a game.

00:00:34
Speaker 3: It was finally yeah, I mean overtime. But the fans were amazing. They like stay all seventy thousand of them stayed in their seats for like thirty minutes after like a game.

00:00:43
Speaker 1: So we're gonna do three picks each against the spread to what we do every week. But tell me a little bit about bert Berlin, like any vibes, any any thoughts on.

00:00:51
Speaker 3: Berlin yet great, Like I hadn't been there since I was eight, Okay, a little kid, right, so it doesn't count. But we like we chiseled away Berlin Wallack with my family and it was a very impactful memory left on me and to see how like the people are so nice there and so but but I'm gonna I'm not gonna lie.

00:01:09
Speaker 2: I'm exhausted.

00:01:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta. I gotta get there as you do. You can on the show many times. My brother spends a lot of time over there. He's actually a citizen. Got that reparations, Let's make picks. So last week, thank you to Tyler Shuck. Yeah, thank you to the Rams, and no, thank you to myself for going against my patriots. That was my one loss. I now I believe have a six week winning streak. Here. I did two and nine last week. You're you at one and two last week, So you're gonna rebound this week. I can feel it. And should I go first?

00:01:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, you definitely need to go first.

00:01:47
Speaker 1: Okay I only had one Well that's not true. I had two games. I feel pretty strongly about number one. It is the international game.

00:01:56
Speaker 2: Okay.

00:01:56
Speaker 1: It is the Miami Dolphins.

00:01:58
Speaker 2: Wow, you feel you feel anything about?

00:02:00
Speaker 1: I do?

00:02:00
Speaker 2: Okay? Okay, good, I'm glad you're having feelings.

00:02:03
Speaker 1: Their defense is playing well. Yep. I actually made a list because I know it's early on the West coast. For instance, it's Dolphins commanders blah blah blah.

00:02:13
Speaker 2: Yep.

00:02:13
Speaker 1: I made a list of seven reasons to be excited about the Dolphins right now. Okay, but that was on my last podcast, and so I don't want to just repeat all that. But there's a lot that's Okay, what's the best one. The last four weeks, they are eighth in success rate in terms of their defense, twelfth in EPA per play, really if you go back since about week four, so they are a better than average defense. So that thought that they're just a tire fire on defense, it's kind of over. And you compare that on the other side of the ball to the Washington Commanders, who are either last or second to last in any defensive metric you can find over the last month. And I look at this matchup and I see it's two pretty mediocre offenses, even with Mariota, Like they're not terrible, but they're both just mediocre. Dolphins are a little better than average if you just look at the last three weeks, but that's not why. It's one defense is one of the worst in the league and the other defense is actually playing pretty well. Bradley Chubb, Anthony Weaver, the coordinator. I think it's it's actually kind of a little bit of a mismatch this week. I think the Dolphins win going away.

00:03:20
Speaker 3: The hard part about me with this game is like now that I like, like, Okay, it's a grueling schedule to be over there.

00:03:27
Speaker 2: You've done it.

00:03:28
Speaker 3: You've done it so many times. You're it's old hat for you. You You're just no, it's very time. I know that they value him here at NFL Media because they don't make him do the sixty hour trip.

00:03:37
Speaker 2: They let him stay for like two weeks.

00:03:39
Speaker 3: Anyways, I digress, but it's grueling, and I know that the Dolphins already over there and they're practicing.

00:03:45
Speaker 1: It's raining kind of like the weather's supposed to be back. That worries me, Yeah, a little bit, because the Dolphins have struggled in bad weather.

00:03:54
Speaker 3: That's why this one in general, I get it. I do think the Dolphins win. I do agree with you that their defense is better, and I do dan Quinn now taking over defensive play calling duty, So maybe Washington have like a little extra pep in their step because but I just feel like this one's a whole stay away because just weird stuff happens when you're that far away.

00:04:11
Speaker 2: From like your normal routine. So I'm with you.

00:04:14
Speaker 1: I was just pleasantly surprised. It's hot two and a half. I thought they would be a bigger favorite with the way that they're playing. They might get their right tackle Austin Jackson back for the first time leave all season. Their offensive line is playing pretty well. It's not a good Commander's front. Okay, your first pick.

00:04:28
Speaker 3: Okay, So I know that eight points is a lot, but I don't care, okay, because I think Baltimore is playing that well. Okay, I think so it's Baltimore over Cleveland. In Cleveland, Baltimore has been really doing a nice job of limiting what defense or what other offenses can do with their defense.

00:04:49
Speaker 2: Dylan Gabriel, poor kid. I just feel like it's not great.

00:04:54
Speaker 3: No like sub five yards per past, using play action, like the tricks that usually work, Just like the tricks aren't tricking, you know, like the things that get people in rhythm aren't getting people in rhythm. I know we saw a new play caller last week, Okay, but I just I just think that the Ravens have so much to be playing for that even eight, which is like a hefty number. I think it's the second heftiest of the week.

00:05:17
Speaker 2: I don't care. I think I think the Ravens beat that.

00:05:21
Speaker 1: Number two items a good news for you. Yeah, number one, I've been meeting for about four shows straight to just mention that Tommy Reese is the play caller for Cleveland. Yeah, I've just forgot to mention it and it's just been bothering me. You just did it, and it's no more Stefanski, So thank you for just providing that information.

00:05:41
Speaker 3: Glad I could be I'm glad I could do something around here for now.

00:05:44
Speaker 1: Jeez, Louise, you've you've been killing it and you're killing me. By the way, everyone should check out game debut every week on NFL Network. Cynthia's model is crushing me right now in that format. Number two, I got a half point to give you back. It's actually seven and a half, uh, according to the DraftKings where I'm looking. So you even point back.

00:06:04
Speaker 2: Great?

00:06:04
Speaker 1: Love it? So oh, I love that pick for you. I think this Browns it is. I know the defense is playing hard, but I like their defense.

00:06:13
Speaker 3: I like really like Miles Garrett. I really like a lot of pieces that Denzil. There's a lot of nice pieces on their defense.

00:06:19
Speaker 1: It's great.

00:06:20
Speaker 2: It's literally on them play offense.

00:06:22
Speaker 1: It's a top five defense. The Ravens could score. You could tell me that the Ravens score nineteen points in this game because the Browns defense place as well, and I'd still take the eight points. I don't think Browns are going over ten. So I think that's a good one. And at some point Kevin Stevanski will no longer be the Browns head coaches, is what I fear, Whether that's fair or not.

00:06:41
Speaker 3: Do you think I have a question about the Giants. You think that's gonna be a coveted job or you think like giants?

00:06:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Well I always think coveted jobs are not is a little overrated. Yes, there's the occasional Ben Johnson, who likes has his pick of a litter, but in general, all coaches want first they every job. And the fact that you have Jackson are Andrew Thomas, Malik, Neighbors, Dexter, Lawrence, Abdell Carter.

00:07:04
Speaker 2: Yeah that's Ryan Burns.

00:07:07
Speaker 1: That's a lot better than a lot of teams that are rebuilding.

00:07:09
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm just curious.

00:07:10
Speaker 1: I think it's a good situation.

00:07:11
Speaker 2: I don't like that.

00:07:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Brown's Brown's less.

00:07:15
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know. Anyways, they got Miles scared.

00:07:17
Speaker 1: Okay, my number two pick that I'm very excited about. That's curious where the model lands on this one.

00:07:22
Speaker 2: Models drunk this week.

00:07:24
Speaker 1: Just so you know, Bucks plus six at Buffalo. I know the model has been big on Buffalo all year.

00:07:31
Speaker 2: Meddles with you. Okay, now the model has Buffalo winning.

00:07:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, but only by four. I couldn't believe that both Patrick and I are taking the Bucks straight up. I don't feel amazing about them, straight up, but I just went with my gut before I even looked at the lines. Yeah, six points a lot. Now, I've been wrong about the Bucks a lot and a lot of these lines. Whenever it's almost seems too good to be true.

00:07:53
Speaker 2: It's too good to be true.

00:07:54
Speaker 1: It is. And I actually went on the other side of that last week that was like Rams favored by four and a half. I don't care if that seems too good to be true, taking the night Like I like the Rams a lot last week, but in this case, I think they have the recipe the Bucks do to either win this game or make it more of a defensive game and keep it close.

00:08:10
Speaker 2: I'm going to do the tiny asterisk.

00:08:12
Speaker 3: Okay, if somehow and he's been practicing all week and so Bucky Irving looks to be returning. If somehow, some weird thing happens and we've seen weird things this year and he doesn't come back, I would stay away from that interesting if he's not there. I do think it does change things for you. My problem that I have for the Bucks to pick the outright win is that Buffalo has been so efficient and so good in the run game, and they've been just crushing time of possession with that run game. So that's why I have Buffalo winning, but I think Tampa Bay could easily keep it very close. Also, I think Baker Mayfield's like a little banged up. He's going to play, but he is a little banged up not playing, but he's like, I mean, I don't even know exactly what's wrong, but like, you know that stinks, like you want I want. I want to see best versus best every single freaking week. So that's why I have them winning, but I think it's close. I have a four point game and I'm pretty conservative, so yeah.

00:09:06
Speaker 1: Like I really like that. Now there is good injury news for the Bills, which I think is informing it. They have Christian Benford, their great cornerback, at practicing with thron Johnson, so it looks like they're both back. They were not playing last week. Josh Palmer is fully practicing, so he's probably back to Epanessa is a defensive lineman.

00:09:22
Speaker 2: To say, let's talk about the defense, he's bad.

00:09:26
Speaker 1: All that said, the Bucks are healthier up front, got their right tackle back last week. In overall efficiency, these two teams are tenth and eleventh in dv O. Yep. To me, that's about where that sounds right. So it's just like it's two teams that are relatively close. And then my final point on this one is, look, the Bucks defense is a great run stopping defense, and I know they gave up a couple of big plays last week, but in terms of on a per play basis, the Patriots actually had the lowest success rate of any team in the NFL running the ball last week.

00:09:56
Speaker 2: But the Patriots aren't a good running team.

00:09:57
Speaker 1: Okay, I get it, But if a team is going to slow down the Bills the way that the Patriots defense did and the way that the Dolphins did last week. They're like load in the box and they're making the Bills win with these one on one matches and it hasn't been happening. And one thing I think that's sneaky about this Bucks team, it's actually probably the best Bucks defense I think of the last four years where they've been winning the divisions their defenses. I think it's a good secondary. I can trust them. I think they can I think they can win.

00:10:27
Speaker 3: Is playing out of his dang mind. I think they can wine me not swear there Yang, that's a good job.

00:10:32
Speaker 1: Okay.

00:10:32
Speaker 3: So that sub twenty four passer rating a lot in coverage, which is like some crazy numbers like the best one in next one stats history, like Jabelle Dean's just crushing it.

00:10:40
Speaker 1: So I just had to knocked over my note card.

00:10:44
Speaker 2: You're so excited about it.

00:10:45
Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube and people do like the Pick show on YouTube right now, go ahead and like this video and subscribe to the chance. We appreciate you. Cinthy, give me your second pick.

00:10:56
Speaker 3: Okay, So my second pick, I I kind of hate it, but I love it. At the same time, I haven't been getting anywhere the season going with things and I'm like, all right, I don't really feel anything about so I'm going with something that makes.

00:11:12
Speaker 2: Me a little more uncomfortable, but I like it.

00:11:15
Speaker 3: I think Chicago they're underdogs in Minnesota. The number is three, yeah, two and a half or three, Okay, it's about three. It doesn't matter.

00:11:24
Speaker 1: I'll give you three.

00:11:26
Speaker 2: I have them winning.

00:11:27
Speaker 1: Greg, the Greg book isn't.

00:11:28
Speaker 3: I don't care. I have them winning, right. So my point is, if you're saying that.

00:11:33
Speaker 1: I have it at three, actually you're right.

00:11:34
Speaker 3: Okay, So you're giving me a field goal, yeah, and I have them winning. It makes me a little uncomfortable because field goal schmield goal, we know. But I do think that this team, if you look just at how Caleb Williams has performed against the Blitz, what's going on in the run game for the Bears. Those two things, just those two things alone, I think this could be a very good opportunity for the Bears to get back that one game that they dropped to the Vikings.

00:12:00
Speaker 2: What was a week one. Heay back in Week one. So I think the Bears win this one.

00:12:04
Speaker 1: I have the Bears winning straight up to all three of us, do me? You and Patrick Well that's a recipe for disaster. A little surprise. Yeah, I don't feel super confident in it either. How could you With these two teams there, they're in the middle.

00:12:17
Speaker 3: Of the end of it makes me feel like like I feel like on Monday when I wake up, that's gonna like be like duh.

00:12:23
Speaker 1: Like obviously the Vikings defense could give this offense a lot of problems, but I think the Bears offense is just so much more trustworthy, which really says something good about Kayleb Williams. Yeah, and where the running game has been out combined compared to this Minnesota offense, which JJ McCarthy is like.

00:12:41
Speaker 3: He's so good in the first two drives and then after that it's like do do do?

00:12:46
Speaker 1: He really gives me. I'm trying to think of a quarterback quite like him, where every time allied by his name JJ nine, you still know what's coming from nine. He's very unpredictable, like some stuff is really good. He is right now a high variance quarterback and that's kind of what Caleb Williams was early in his career. But he's starting to make those plays. Okay, I'm with.

00:13:09
Speaker 2: You, Okay, who's your second one?

00:13:11
Speaker 1: I gave you two. I gave you the Bucks, the Dolphins, and I'll tell you because Chicago is on my longer list of ones I kind of liked, so I agreed with you. There there's another one, which it's just the same reasoning it's not going to be my third pick, but that I kind of liked, which is I have Seattle winning. Straight up. I think you did two.

00:13:28
Speaker 2: I do.

00:13:28
Speaker 1: Is that your third pick?

00:13:29
Speaker 2: No, so don't feel good about it.

00:13:31
Speaker 1: So I kind of like that plus three if you're gonna give me three points.

00:13:33
Speaker 2: If you're give me three points, same argument.

00:13:35
Speaker 1: And that one is not much more complicated than I've thought. They're the best team in the NFL for a month plus, like if I had to pick one, and so if you give me who I think is the best team in the NFL three points, I'll just take it. But I don't feel great about it because that's how good the Rams are and it's a division game. Who knows third one? Like I said, didn't really have a third that I absolutely loved. And this is very similar to my Rams pick a week ago. I know that five and a half looks big for the Steelers, but a division matchup I like that one. The rematch where the first time you got it. This is my theory, the rematch where the first time around the inferior team wins. I think it just market correct. There's if Mike Tomlin gets swept by Joe Flacco and this Bengals defense, I mean, we gotta have some serious conversations about the Steelers. I don't think that's happening. And I actually think this time around, some of these crazy numbers of Flacco under pressure, which are horrible, will actually come back to haunt them. And I know he's he's been excellent overall, but it was kind of a miracle they got back in that Bears game. And I think this Steelers pass rush will give him lots of problems. And actually this could be a very one sided game that they rebound from that performance against the Chargers, and Jalen Warren runs the ball really well. Most importantly, more than anything, they're playing the Bengals defense, the worst defense in the league. They're not gonna beat him twice. I take him to win by more than five and a half the Pittsburgh Steelers.

00:15:00
Speaker 3: Mine's right around five and a half. Okay, So I like it, like my gut totally agrees with you. I kind of hate, like I told you, the models a little drunk this week. So it's not one that I feel super strongly about, except that Pittsburgh will win this game.

00:15:12
Speaker 2: I feel good.

00:15:13
Speaker 1: About that, the way that they can get heavy in terms of their offense and run the ball. And Mike Tomlin talked about it this week. He wants Jalen Warren Deev even more of the workload. Yeah. I love that, and I just think it's going to be effective coming out of a buye. You know how it is like good, good coaching staff. So you say, coming out of a bye, they're going to fix things. Yeah, Andy, and you read twelve and four coming out of a bu what are they going to do? Like McDermott, he made some adjustments a few weeks ago and it really worked out for a couple of weeks. I actually feel the opposite about the Bengals. You give them a week to think about it and make some changes, it's actually going to get worse. And so that's another reason why the Steelers are gonna win.

00:15:51
Speaker 2: All right.

00:15:51
Speaker 3: Your final pick, Look, this is another one that I'm just going with being a little uncomfortable in this this week. That's my new strategy. Seven points Houston over Tennessee.

00:16:03
Speaker 1: Okay, and I think it's down to six. It's better for you a whole point. I've been monitoring that throughout the day. We taped this on Thursday, and uh, c J Strout effect me. It was seven all week, fell the six and a half. Now it's all the way to six. That's because that's because c J. Stroud has been ruled out officially. Yeah.

00:16:19
Speaker 3: You know who doesn't care about that, David Merrell. Oh okay, well, also Davis Mills yea and his neck. But uh, but part of what I like about this one has has absolutely nothing to do with Houston's offense. It's really everything to do with the fact that Houston's defense is just.

00:16:35
Speaker 2: Like so scary.

00:16:37
Speaker 3: I understand they gave up a lot of points to Jacksonville. I know division games.

00:16:40
Speaker 1: It was misleading, it was short fields and it was returned right and turnovers. Their defense.

00:16:46
Speaker 3: Watched that game, yes, and if you watch what like what happens in the passing situations against the text, like the Texas defense could do the scoring here, maybe they could play offense like who knows like it doesn't even matter. But but ultimately, I just pretty strongly that you know, Houston is trying to make a case for the playoffs. They know they kind of started the season a little not so great, and they've really turned it up. You know, if you look over the past couple of weeks, where do they rank since they're bye and passing yards per game, they're right up there amongst the league's best. Okay, it's very surprising to me because because when I watch, I'm not thinking, like, wow, they're dising them up, but you got to look at the aggregate and what's happening in Nico Collins.

00:17:26
Speaker 2: Effect, Like he was so good last year exactly.

00:17:28
Speaker 3: So I just I don't think there's anyone on Tennessee's defense in the secondary that scares me against a guy like Nico Collins.

00:17:34
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me? Absolutely not.

00:17:36
Speaker 1: I totally agree. And I watched that game and I thought, you know, their running game is actually coming together. It was really important in that comeback. They actually stayed patient with the run. Yeah, Woody Marx and Nick Chubb, and I'm not saying it's going to be great, but they're also getting two offensive linemen back last week this week they were short. Who's their best offensive lineman? Titus Howard who I gotta trust the local people, the local beat writers have been saying he might be their best offensive player, like he has played like a pro bowler in a on a team to where the rest of the offensive line has really struggled, He's played well.

00:18:12
Speaker 3: I mean, I like, okay, I feat writers too, and I'm happy he's back. But I don't know, I just like it just makes me a little uncomfortable because you know, weird things happened into.

00:18:20
Speaker 1: Six is a lot. I saw that, and that one is sort of like too good to be true to take the Titans, But I get it. And here's why I did a little math while you were talking. You're not the only mathematician around here. It's coming from job people modeler. So the over under thirty seven and a half, right, so if they'll if the if the spread is six, that would put the shoot that would put like the Titans team total around fifteen and a half, fifteen and a half or sixteen, depending on how they do it, whatever the Titans team total is. I love that this week under.

00:18:58
Speaker 2: Oh they are noting a score?

00:19:00
Speaker 1: No, no, no, I'm saying it's like I could just kind of like I was talking about with the Steelers, you could tell me the Texans only scored twenty points. I'll take that, you know that would like I think this could very well be seventeen to six yep or twenty to six yep.

00:19:15
Speaker 3: And six is actually like that'd be moving it down the field a little bit.

00:19:19
Speaker 1: What I think the team total could be outrageously low for the Titans.

00:19:23
Speaker 2: Is that a good job Titans?

00:19:26
Speaker 1: No? I think as jobs go, I think cam Ward's a plus. Love kim wardon relatively but also unproven.

00:19:36
Speaker 2: Very unproven. But what are you supposed to do? I mean, the poor kids?

00:19:39
Speaker 1: You remember all those interesting core pieces I mentioned that the Giants? Yeah, okay, who are they on the on the Titans?

00:19:47
Speaker 2: Cam Ward, kim Oh, you got Jeffrey Simmons.

00:19:51
Speaker 1: I like Taji Spears as like a backup.

00:19:53
Speaker 2: You don't like Jeffrey Simmons. You didn't respond to that.

00:19:55
Speaker 1: He's like thirty one or yeah he's good.

00:19:58
Speaker 2: Listen, we get better as we in certain ways. No, we don't in football.

00:20:03
Speaker 1: No, Cynthia, you absolutely have. You've got so many jobs. Check her out on her YouTube channel. Numbers game. Also, you know your guy Logan Ryan, who you do a show with. Logan is a star popping up in the Tony romo of all.

00:20:21
Speaker 2: Of the surprise guests last week.

00:20:23
Speaker 1: Yes, Logan, that is really well said. I was like, Hey, that's that's Cynthia's co host. If if he can get in the booth with Jim nance Antonio, maybe I can too. Exactly, I'm your coast.

00:20:35
Speaker 3: I mean that was also his like Bowl game, right, because he played for both teams plus and he like went nasked to shadow.

00:20:40
Speaker 1: It's a good humans, it's smart to do. And that's always uh a good recommendation before we speak it by it out there. Yeah, if you're in a place where someone's doing the job you want to do, just just start following them around and then just start doing the job you want to do, even if no one asks you and and eventually they just kind of give it to you. Maybe why are you laughing?

00:21:04
Speaker 2: It's kind of true.

00:21:06
Speaker 1: More or less is good advice. We will be back on Sunday night with the week eleven recap. We will see that