933: Mailbag 10/25/24

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacherth jj Zacherfan, what's up everyone? It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine d and thirty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. I know a lot of you are football fans, but I know a lot of you are basketball fans too, And the NBA is back. To celebrate, Underdog is offering a boost on all NBA only pick upm entries through October twenty seventh. That's on top of the boost Hobra promotion that's been running throughout the month. You guys should go check it out. And if you're on the site and you're ready to join, make sure you use promo code late Round when you're signing up. That'll get you a night's deposit bonus. You also get access to my rest of season rankings. Their email do you after you sign up deposit and play. That's on Underdog Fantasy dot com or through the Underdog AAP. That's promo code Late Round when you sign up. It's a mail bagup episode. Let's get to it. The first question from Patreon is from Height, Weight, Speed, Quarterbacks Only. It says, huge fan of your work. Thanks zooming out from specific players. What's your process when evaluating mid season trades? So, honestly, it's the same as my process for evaluating any addition or subtraction to a lineup, which includes when injuries occur. From a projection standpoint, you have to think about the team level first, how could this player impact the team. You're not going to see like multiple touchdown differences in projections or anything at the team level, but just think about what a player might be able to do to a team's bottom line, and more importantly, think about what a player might do to a team's tendencies. Like DeAndre Hopkins he goes to Kansas City. We'll get to that in a second. But do the Chiefs get more run heavy? I mean, it's possible that game script would get better if the Chiefs get better. But if the Chiefs get better, that at least means that the passing attack is more efficient than it was before. In general, this is probably a move where the Chiefs throw the ball a little bit more now, they lean on Mahomes a little bit more than they have. It may not be dramatic in some cases it's not, but it's something to think about, and then you think about the player and is fit on the team. This is where I think just having a really methodical, mathematical approach when people don't have a qualitative bone in their body, this is where it can ruin analysis forecasting football. It's not just the numbers driven process only there's an art to it. And the art comes in the form of understanding how teams might want to use certain players. It's about, for lack of a better term, just generally understanding ball. You can use data to help you get to those conclusions too, don't get me wrong. A good example of this is with the Buccaneers right now. Like I said, injuries can also make you go through the same exact type of process. And the Bucks lost Chris Godwin and they lost Mike Evans. Now we have to figure out what's gonna happen in this offense. Sometimes we don't fully know, we're just making educated guesses. But my educated guess is that maybe the Buccaneers, maybe they drop their neutral script pass rate a little bit and lean more on the run, which means there's a potential for less passing volume. And then you look at the wide receivers on their roster, and you think about the roles that those wide receivers might play based on their skill sets. And I said it all week, but the Bucks are currently looking at just like a bunch of slot wide receivers or guys who play best in the slot, which makes it more difficult to know exactly how these players are going to be deployed. I mean, this is why the Jaylen McMillan pick was so interesting for them, because he played like ninety percent of his snaps in college from the slot. But they clearly were making a point to use Chris Godwin there this year. They talked about that during the offseason and they've been using McMillan on the outside and the perimeter all year, when is much more natural position is as a slot receiver. That's where he thrived at Washington. But then they're sterling Shepherd. Shepherd hasn't only been a slot player throughout his career. He started his career that way, but like in twenty twenty, he only ran thirty two percent of his routes from the slot. He's seen his slot rate actually kind of go down as his career has gone on. But again, I think if you look at him, you look at his archetype and where he's at in his career, and how the Buccaneers have used him at times this year, you say to yourself, Oh, yeah, he could play that role. He could play the Chris Godwin role. Even Trey Palmer last season his rookie year, fifty seven percent of his routes run came from the slot. So my point is that some of these projections, some of these forecasts, they're gonna be a little bit more difficult than others. I've said to Ad McMillan because he is the most unknown upside and I liked him as a prospect. But like I mentioned on yesterday's Sleepers episode, Shephard, he might be the one who takes that Godwin role, which could be really helpful in fantasy. Meanwhile, you look at Kansas City and it's obvious they need a real ex receiver. You could hypothetically put Hopkins there. I think he has a chance to play some X But also we've seen some slot work from Hopkins in the past, and in this lower A dot offense that Kansas City has been running. I wouldn't be surprised if Hopkins plays out of the slot a little bit too, which is the Rashi Rice Juju Smith Schuster role, just because of how this offense has operated basically since Tyreek Hill left. So from a projection standpoint, maybe it lowers Travis Kelcey's target shair a little bit. Everyone's target share is going to take a hit when you add a player like this to the offense. And xavier' Worthy he was a bye this week before all this news went down, I would say that's less of the case now, But there's also a chance that the market's just completely off of Worthy now, so you could always do a bench trade. But yeah, once you get that general understanding of how teams deploy their players, you can start divvying things up like backfield share and target share. That gives you your general projection and you're coming up with those target share numbers based on historical figures and what's logical for the current situation. So hopefully that helps. I think people want this to be more analytical than it actually is. Sometimes I do think it's analytical from the standpoint of like having a general understanding of how teams divide their work and what types of players see what types of target shairs, But to be accurate with your forecasts, you still need to understand how the game of football works. Okay, now we'll talk about DeAndre Hopkins. This next question is from at not star Lord on Twitter. It says, does DeAndre Hopkins have enough left to be an alpha wide receiver in the Chiefs offense? A lot of people ask me about Hopkins in different ways, but this question was the most direct. Is Hopkins gonna be it for the Chiefs? Now? And my answer to that is if we assume health. I'm cautiously optimistic. Some might remember, but earlier this summer, before Hopkins suffered his injury, I was into him as a draft a target. I had found that wide receivers in his range who were older, who had strong previous season periferr they usually outperformed their cost at a pretty high rate. Hopkins had a better season last year than you probably realized. His average up the target was the highest of his career. He finished the year with a yards per rout run rate of two point zero nine. He hasn't been below the one point seventy five yards per rout run rate since twenty sixteen. That's crazy. Now, He's obviously been a little bit banged up this year, but look at how he's performed in yards per route run versus his Tennessee teammates or his ex Tennessee teammates. He's been at one point six to two. That's his yards per route run rate, which, yes, it's below where we want him to be, but a one point six to two yards per rout run rate is still not that bad even without context, but with context, it's kind of awesome. The Titans offense has been a train wreck. The wide out and second on that team in yards per route run is Tyler Boyd. Remember DeAndre Hopkins one point six to two. Tyler Boyd one point zero four. Calvin Ridley is at one point zero two on a per route basis, Hopkins has destroyed his teammates this year. He just hasn't been running a full route share. He's been around the fifty percent mark. Calvin Ridley he's been at eighty four percent. Again, this likely stems from injury, so that's actually my biggest fear. My biggest concern here is that he's not fully healthy. But I would hope that Kansas City doesn't make this move, doesn't make this trade without knowing what's coming without understanding his health. Now, from my perspective, whether through the eye test or through this data, I don't think Hopkins is complete dust. I highly doubt we're going to see him be a huge down the field receiver, which is probably gonna limit him a little bit in fantasy as like a wide receiver three. But maybe he surprises and he's ready to do that. And I do think that where he's at in his career right now, it could be a good fit for this really obnoxious low aid dot offense. Like I said before, Rashi Rice made a living out of the slot for them. We even saw Juju Smith Schuster have a big game this year. I think Hopkins can play all over the field. He'll play some X but don't be surprised if he's in the slot a lot too. I know I said a lot of this earlier. I'm just reiterating the point. So there's a chance that he kind of becomes a PPR cheek code And with the numbers that I just discussed, that's kind of intriguing. This last question is from Patreon. It's from Steve and it says, hey, JJ, should I drop Anthony Richardson in a twelve man PPR league, I was able to pick up Kirk Cousins on the waiver wire, and I'm unsure if he's worth a bench spot at this point. I also got a question from Paul on Patreon. Then ast is to a worth picking up and stashing rest of season if I'm struggling at quarterback or stream the rest of the way. Now these two questions may seem completely different, but there's a reason I'm pairing them together this week. When it comes to the quarterback position, a onesie position in fantasy football, where the demand is quite low and the supply is relatively high, there's no clear cut answer that you can blanket across all leagues. Now, I could say the same thing for any position. I get it. But when we're talking about someone like Alexander Madison, some random running back like that, he should be rostered in almost every league, even in ten teamers, because the running back position matters so much more than the quarterback position. The demand is higher, we're starting two or three of them each week. At quarterback, we're only starting one. When demand is higher, supply starts to dry out. It's why you can look at a random twelve team waiver wire, right now and see a starting quarterback, see a lot of them. I mean that first question about Anthony Richardson. It says that Kirk Cousins is sitting on the waiver wire. Now, kirk Cousins hasn't been amazing this year, but it tells me that there might be some usable pieces on your waiver wire, like if Gino Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, those types of players, if they're sitting out there, they're ready to be picked up. Then there's less of a need to really stash quarterbacks. There's less of a need to even hold on to someone like Anthony Richardson, although I do think the upside is still there, but with a deeper format, you can't afford to take that chance. Right. Here's an example. I'm in the Kings Classic League, which is run by Bob Lung of the Fantasy Football Expo. Every year I go to the Pro Football Hall of Fame and we draft two teams. We do a fourteen team snake draft with deep rosters, and then we do the same thing with the same managers with an auction draft. Now I have Anthony Richardson on one of those teams, and both are five and two. By the way, thankfully Richardson hasn't totally tanked that team. But I can't drop Anthony Richardson because the best quarterback on the waiver wire right now is Daniel Jones. He's basically the only starting quarterback on the wire. I can't afford to drop Anthony Richardson. This is where fantasy analysts like myself can do you guys a disservice, genuinely, like I want to help all of you guys win fantasy titles by telling you who to add, who to drop, who to buy, and who to sell. I truly, truly have a passion for this stuff. I want to share that passion. It's a game that we get to think about game theory and math while also watching football. It's amazing. Fantasy football is amazing. But I will never sit on this podcast and say things that I don't actually believe. And I have a strong belief that when it comes to adding and dropping quarterbacks in fantasy football, it depends entirely on your league and how your league manages quarterbacks. I can give you like a general guideline of what's likely to be the case in a twelve team league. I do that all the time. But without this type of context, without understanding what's actually out there, you're not gonna make consistently good moves on your own. So with quarterbacks, I think the way that you should look at it is this way. If there are mid range QB twos sitting on your waiver wire, the kind of guys that I talked about earlier, If they're on your waiver wire, then you know that you have a safety net. And if you have that safety net, you can more freely drop that position and drop those players. If you don't have that net, then you can't afford to drop them. Think about how we viewed Tua entering the year. He was a QB two. In some leagues, that's someone that you could just flip on the waiver wire each week. You don't need to roster him. But in other leagues you might need him as a backup. Your individual league matters more than you probably realize. So I probably checked my LinkedIn like once every month and a half, and I just so happened to check it the other day and I got a message from someone named Eric. He was asking a fantasy football question, which, for the record, guys LinkedIn definitely not the best place for that. But the question was a process related one, and I want to dive into it because it's important. And I did ask if I could use this question for the mailbag, and Eric said yes. But here's what it says. Says JJ, why do you recommend adding somebody and then proceed to talk bad about them the entire time? This week it was keon Coleman, last week was I at Grendo. It doesn't make sense. Thanks, So I say this all the time, but there are two things that sort of make up a player's value in fantasy football. There's his actual performance, his production, and then there's his market value. I could have a poop sandwich that's completely worthless to me. I don't want a poop sandwich. But if people are out there willing to give me one thousand dollars for poop sandwiches, I'll make as many poop sandwiches as humanly possible. There's value in having a player that other people might want or that has value. From that perspective, a player who's an ad or something you should get off the waiver wire is not a player who's flawless. And my job isn't to only give you the positive traits for a player. I need to be realistic with Keyon Coleman this week. If I were to simply say, hey, guys, Keon Coleman's a rookie who had a decent profile, He's playing in an offense led by Josh Allen, and he's coming off a monster game, and we know that rookies performed better during the second half of the year, that might cause you to be really aggressive that player off the waiver wire. Do I think Coleman should have been added this week? I see no harm in that he is a rookie. Rookies do tend to perform better as the season goes on, and production can be predictive. I said as much on the podcast on that episode. But me bringing up the fact that a Mari Cooper wasn't on the field for any of Keon Coleman's targets, that's me telling you that we can add a player but not go crazy with it. There is a narrative out there this week, Like you can find articles that were written about this, there was a narrative saying that Amrii Cooper opened things up for Keon Coleman. He didn't. He objectively did not because Cooper wasn't on the field for any of Keon Coleman's targets. How could he have possibly opened things up for Keon Coleman. If Coleman is producing without a Mari Cooper on the field, now, could that happen in the future. Yeah, sure, I do think that we're gonna see a more fish and offense. But volume still drives fantasy football output. If you don't have that context, I'm not doing my job. Coleman's volume will undoubtedly take a hit with Amari Cooper on the field, which again, he wasn't on the field for Coleman's Week seven targets. So you can add Coleman because we saw strong production. Production can be predictive, and the market itself, at least a portion of the market, has this idea that Cooper's opening things up for Keyon Coleman, even though that has not happened yet. So you're getting a player who increased the production side of his value, and he also increased the market value side. People are willing to spend more for that asset, and our goal is to put together the most valuable roster that we can possibly put together. Now, a couple of weeks ago. Like you said, I talked about Isaac Garrendo as an ad At the time of that recording, we had no idea how long Jordan Mason was going to be out. But I again caution people that they shouldn't spend a lot to get Gendo because there were Twitter doctors saying that this Jordan Mason injury might not even sideline him. But then even if it did, for one week, San Francisco had Kansas City. It was a tough opponent any way. So could you have just ignored Girendo entirely? Sure? I did that in some leagues, but there are many paths that could have unfolded. What if Mason missed multiple games, or what if we added Girendo just to flip him to the manager who had Jordan Mason. There's still valueing Girendo in that very moment, because someone in your league may not realize the things that we were talking about. They may not know that Jordan Mason might not actually miss that game, which he didn't. By the way, They may not realize or even think about who the forty nine ers Week seven opponent is. We're trying to add value and value can come in a lot of different packages, so I'm not hating on those players. I'm not hating on these ads. I'm just being realistic. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and free to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I greatly appreciate it. I got a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping in just a couple of hours. I hope you listen to that. Otherwise, good luck in week eight. I'll talk to you next week.