537: Mailbag 8/26/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandled at number fire dot com, in this episode five hundred and thirty seven of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I thought I was going to open up today's show by talking about the Travis ETN injury and what it means for the Jacksonville backfield. And then Sony Michelle was traded to the Rams. So today's open is gonna be about both of those news items. And I'm dropping this episode early, one day early, so that you all have this information for any draft that you're going to be doing. Let's start with that Jacksonville backfield. When it was announced that Travis ETM would be out for the season, the initial thought for many was that James Robinson would be a bell cow. He would be a locked in low end RB one, maybe a high end RB two. I saw the tweet, I saw what people were thinking, and as much as I love James Robinson the player and what he did for my wallet last year, I need to stay objective with this. There are three big things working against Robinson that make this a little bit more complicated than just saying, hey, he was easily a top ten back last year, so we should probably be one this year with a better quarterback. Right. The first thing is the coaching staff. I've said all offseason that my biggest concern with Travis Etn, despite absolutely loving him at cost, was the fact that I don't know if the coaching staff is very sharp. The fact that they had James Robinson on their roster, that they're in rebuild mode and they went out and drafted Traves Etn with a first round selection. That's not all that encouraging. They drafted a luxury position when they probably shouldn't have. That means that I just don't know if they'll be rational with how they divvy up that backfield. Carlos Hide is there, and as much as we want to roll our eyes when we hear that name, Hides better than anything Robinson competed against last year in that backfield, and Hides already played with the first team in the preseason. Now to that point, and the second thing I want to talk about is that we can't forget that A huge reason James Robinson was able to do what he did last year was because of his insanely high backfield chair. Among all backs to play at least eight games since twenty eleven, Robinson's rush share per game rate last year ranks first using that same threshold of games played for running back rush are not total rush share. That was also first. We can't expect that to continue with a new coaching staff and a better piece in that backfield in Carlos Hyde. And then, on top of all that, the third reason that James Robinson won't just be a top ten running back again is because the competition at the running back position across Fantasy football is stronger. It's better this year. We have healthier running backs right now. That's why I think Robinson is more in the David Montgomery tier than like the Joe Mixon tier I have met RB nineteen. But it's a really good example of not just assuming a player will get better because this offense will be better. There's more to a situation than just that. Now, let's move on to this Sony Michelle Trade. I talked on Monday about how Darryl Henderson was moving up my rankings a bit and how he was becoming a little bit easier to draft. Mostly from a game theory perspective, the ceiling was technically there. I still think that process was fine, and I'm not one of those people who think Henderson is a bad running back, but this is a really good example of how fragile these dead zone running backs really are. The reason I didn't push Henderson higher than that RB twenty one spot was because something like this was always a possibility. Henderson wasn't a locked in bell cow like we see from fifteen other running backs in fantasy football this year. When the player himself is more questionable, or the way a team views that player maybe up in the air, that brings fragility. This is part of the reason the running back dead zone even exists, which, by the way, if you want to learn more about the running back dead zone, listen to episode five hundred and fourteen. Henderson dropped to RB twenty seven in my rankings with this, Sony Michelle News, I think it matters for Henderson's projection. I don't understand how some people think that this is irrelevant to Darryl Henderson. It's not irrelevant. Usually anytime there's some piece added to a backfield, it's bad for the other players in that backfield. Sony Michell hasn't been able to stay healthy in the NFL. But get this, According to next Gen Stats, Sony Michelle was first in rushing yards over expectation per attempt last year among running backs with fifty or more carries. The fear for Henderson is that he won't be the goal line back in that offense. And that's a big deal because not only do we just want touchdowns, but the Rams are gonna be good offensively, and over the last couple of seasons, even without Todd Gurley being peaked Todd Gurley, only the Ravens and Patriots have run the ball at a higher rate at the goal line than the Los Angeles Rams have. It wouldn't shock me if Sony Michelle is utilized pretty heavily in this offense. That's certainly in the range of outcomes here, and we should be open minded to there's just an insanely wide range of outcomes in the situation right now. Just embrace that understand that exists. You don't have to firmly take one side or the other. I have Michelle at RB thirty one, right now. But as you know, the ambiguous RB one theory would definitely favor Darryl Henderson if both of their ADPs end up in round six through nine, and if Henderson is the RB one by ADP. So if we see these ADPs get tighter, Henderson, at least based on history, could become a pretty nice value. And for the record, just because a running back fits the ambiguous RB one theory doesn't mean you should automatically draft him. It's just a trend, nothing more. But I will say this, there's a chance I end up liking Henderson more now than I did before. If his ADP drops significantly, then his opportunity cost is a lot lower. His stealing may not be as high, but it could still be pretty high as the one A in the rams backfield if that's the way things sort of work out. But right now, I'm sorry, I just can't be more firm with the situation and how I feel about it. I've shared my general thoughts, but I'm not going to sit here and record this and just be a hot take machine. We need more information about Henderson's thumb injury. More importantly, we need more information on what the market is going to do until then, It's hard to say yes, I'm all in on Darryl Henderson because if his ADP is still at like RB twenty three, I'm probably not going to be all in. So my answer to this is use my rankings as a general guide and just sort of go from there. Now, I want to talk about Damian Harris here too. I sent some tweets about Harris after that trade went down because I've just been surprised by how many people are so in love with Damian Harris this year. I've mentioned this before in the show, but I just don't really see it, Like, yeah, I understand how he can get there. He can score a lot of touchdowns. New England likes to run it close to their opponent's zone. I just talked about that, But banking on touchdowns like that is not the best strategy. Damien Harris still needs to see an uptick in receiving for me to feel more comfortable, and I don't know if he's gonna see that because we have a lot of evidence pointing to him not seeing a ton of work through the air. That evidence being the New England backfield history under this coaching staff since twenty eleven, the Patriots have had four running backs with two hundred or more carries. The highest single season target share among those backs was three point four percent. Three point four percent. That's tiny. Now, why is that the case? Because New England uses their running backs and specialized roles. James White had almost a fifteen percent target share last year and he's still on the team. Over the last decade, we've had two hundred top twenty running backs in Fantasy Football. Top twenty running backs ten years, ten times twenty two hundred. So I'm not talking about top ten running backs. I'm not talking about super elite players at the position. I'm talking about RB twos. Here of those two hundred backs, only nine of them had a target share below five percent. Now, this is all focused on PPR formats, but a lot of who are drafting in PPR, and my analysis focus is on PPR to keep things standardized. I would worry a lot about Damian Harris's true ceiling in a best ball draft. He's fine, he's gonna get touches this year, and you don't have to predict when you should use him. My educated guest, though, is that he's gonna end up being one of those two hundred plus attempt backs with a sub five percent target share in the New England offense. We've seen this play out before, but where's the room for growth. You absolutely need him to see significantly more targets or he needs to find the end zone a lot, and by a lot, I'm talking like fourteen times at a minimum. As long as he's not gonna see more targets, he needs to find the end zone that much more. Now, to me, I'm more interested in getting a wide receiver where Damian Harris typically goes. And then I'll get that wide receiver and I'm just gonna draft go Edwards later. And that might be potentially significantly later now because Harris's ADP is probably gonna rise a little bit. The bottom line between Edwards and Damian Harris, both players are gonna score points in a similar way. Edwards has Dobbins and Lamar Jackson to deal with, but the Ravens offense is likely gonna be a lot better than New England's. And then people will say, well, what's edwards upside? Though? I mean his upside is crazy. If JK. Dobbins gets hurt, he's a flex play with that upside, He's not a traditional handcuff. There really isn't an injury in the New England backfield that's gonna help Damien Harris at least more than likely. Even if James White gets hurt, they might just throw JJ Taylor in the backfield. JJ Taylor is not a bad late round dart throw, by the way, not just because his name is elite. So again, I don't know where Harris's ADP is gonna land. I have him in that same range as Henderson and Michelle, but a player like Henderson has a higher ceiling in my opinion, and that's why I have Darryl Henderson ranked head of Damian Harris. And you can honestly make the same argument for Sony Michelle. And maybe my Harris stance will bite me in the butt, but I do think it's rational. I think it's the right process, so I can't be mad if it does. I can't be mad if Damian Harris does work out and I look foolish. I think the process is right. So no, I'm not gonna have a lot of Damien Harris this year. And that's especially true if his ADP rises after this move. Now today is a Mailbag show. But before getting into the questions, the twenty twenty one NFL season is right around the corner, and Fandel is giving fans the opportunity to get in on the action by playing fantasy football. Right now. Fandel has daily best Ball fantasy drafts that you can compete in. All you have to do is head over to fandle dot com and draft your team. Pick a league with your desired amount of teams, draft your squad, and compete for prizes. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the Fandel app for more details. The first question this week is from at It's That Boys seventy five. Is Mark Callaway an underrated player or are we overreacting to a good preseason game. Let's start this by saying that we usually don't see undrafted players make big impacts in fantasy football at the NFL level. There's usually a reason they were undrafted. But Calloway's profile is not terrible. He had below average marks and two of the three production metrics that I look at in my model, but he did have a pretty strong breakout age and he wasn't in early declare. Those are the things that my model sees. Any undrafted player won't look good in my model, But to Calloway's credit, he's a pretty good undrafted player in that model. My stance with him is this, are you really gonna have to spend that much to get him? Likely not. I'm not gonna fault anyone forgetting Marquez Callaway. That would be silly. Recent drafts right now have him going in that wide receiver sixty range, So I'm cool if you want to go his way. It just depends on the type of league that you're in and your overall build. I just wouldn't get over confident like Jacoby Myers is a far better selection in my opinion than Marquez Callaway. He's an undrafted wide receiver as well, but he had a better prospect score in my model, and he also has a history. Just last year he had a high target chair in that New England offense. I don't see why his ceiling isn't just as high as Callaways while also having a higher floor, And he doesn't have one of the better wide receivers in football coming back mid season or potentially coming back mid season. Michael Thomas is gonna be the alpha in that offense when he returns, Like if Michael Thomas is back, are you gonna feel that confident playing Marquez Callaway? Maybe he will, but I think probability is on the side of you probably won't, So it all just depends. I think it's fine if you want to target him in drafts, and I've done so myself, but there are players in that range who I still prefer, like Jacoby Myers or maybe Terris Marshall. That doesn't mean I'm not getting Callaway. It just means that I don't think he's just this obvious slam dunk pick. This escourse is from at Mountain Man MT. Are you still on tea Late Round QB has The arrival of elite rushing quarterbacks in the NFL changed your strategy at quarterback. So with this question, I'm going to direct you to two separate pieces that should help clarify my overall stance, at least in more detail. The first is an episode on the Late Round podcast that I did earlier this offseason on the importance of quarterback rushing. That's episode four hundred and seventy two. The other is an article on Number Fire called is the Late Round Quarterback strategy dead. You can google that title with the word number fire and it should pop up. Those two pieces explain why in today's game, in twenty twenty one's fantasy football season, it's a lot easier to get an elite quarterback versus other seasons. I felt similarly last year before the season started, and I talked about that people were and still are finally valuing quarterback rushing the way they should value it. Now the question of am I still on team late round QB, Yes, of course, just not as hardcore as I have been over the last ten years since I started doing all this. I think we're going to get to a point in fantasy football where there are legitimately twelve thirteen, fourteen options per season, where those options have legit top three upside in fantasy football. That's where we were just three or four years ago. We're just not quite there yet because of the rushing component. Maybe it happens this year, but it's not as predictable. Historically, it's been a good idea to just avoid the middle round guys and go big or go home, and I usually just went home. But now you can pick off a stud if one falls, you can look at the next tier and you can get a guy like Jalen Hurts or Ryan Tannehill, or you can just get one of the rookie quarterbacks. It's just a different year in general. At quarterback. I think there's a very real chance that this is the year of the rookie quarterback. But regardless whether it is or isn't, I know, I still wont a mobile quarterback. This has questions from at set underscore animal. How do you feel about the argument that it's bad draft strategy to benu your fifth or sixth round pick. I e. If you take too many wide or se at the top of the draft, are you wasting value because they can't all play in a given week? Thanks? No, this type of argument could be thrown in the trash. If that's the logic that we're using, then should we just be roster filling? Why are we taking backup running backs and wide receivers all the time over tight ends and defenses and kickers before we have starters at those positions and even quarterbacks. Because we recognize value, and we recognize that there's value in having abundance of running backs and wide receivers in our fantasy teams. Not all of your picks are going to work out, and even if they did, it's always good to have that value to utilize in the trade or just have in plus matchups. This idea of lineup filling is wrong, and if anyone's pushing that they're being suboptimal, you'll almost never have the right lineup just fall right into your lap that way. This best questions from at elder Goose the fourth. I want to know why you project Chase Claypool over Deontae john even if they are only one ranking apart. Okay, so I have Claypoole one spot ahead of Deontay Johnson this year in my fantasy rankings. That's what you just noted. I should say, though this isn't how I have them projected. Deontay Johnson projects out to be better than Chase Claypool. The reason I have Claypole one spot ahead is because I typically am striving for ceiling and I see Claypool as having that. I don't want to just reiterate the things that I said in the Players the Target show, So go back and listen to that, But I did talk about Chase Claypool on that show. I'm typically getting Chase Claypool as my wide receiver three given the bills that I typically construct, so shooting for that ceiling is a little bit easier for me to do. Even if he's your wide receiver two, I'd still go for that ceiling. But if you want to go with Deontay Johnson, I have no problem whatsoever. He's a safer bet, and he's a safer bet to see a high target share. Specifically, anyone who listened to the show last year knows that I'm a Deontay Johnson stan, so you won't hear an argument for me if you want to go with Deontay Johnson over Chase Claypool. It actually makes sense for a lot of builds. And this is also why I'm just not the biggest fan of rankings, because I think there's context needed for almost every single player. This has question as an email, It says JJ, we talk about prospect grades coming into the NFL, and for many years of watching college football, Go Hawkeyes. I can't remember a quarterback over the last ten years coming into the league with the tools and accomplishments as Trevor Lawrence has this year. No disrespect to Andrew luck Now, I feel his ADP is downright disrespectful, with others drafted after him viewed as better sleepers. I think the entire fantasy football community is asleep at the wheel here. Shoot, I'll stack a couple of his pass catchers even in redraft dynasty, no brainer with Lawrence and a late round vet. But really, why are we not all over Lawrence as a true sleeper? Sincerely, Neil from the best Beach in Florida. I don't think this is all that wrong. We're all understanding enamored with Justin Fields and Trey Lance, but let's not forget that Trevor Lawrence can bring a little juice with his legs too. Let's not forget that he's the best prospect since Andrew Luck. Let's not forget that he was dominant in college and he's now sitting in a situation with pretty decent personnel around him. I think it's just the fact that there are a lot of good quarterbacks who have a better ceiling in year one for Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence doesn't have quite the rushing ability that we're gonna see from Justin Fields and Trey Lance or someone like Jalen Hurts. But look, I have no problem walking into Week one with Trevor Lawrence as my fantasy football starter, especially in a superflex format, and don't forget Lawrence is gonna face Houston in that Week one game two. This last question is from at mister underscore get underscore right. Who is a player that, after a full season of frustrating research, ranking, adjusting, and readjusting, you still aren't sure what to expect from this upcoming season. I could go in a lot of different with this question, but I think the player I'm landing on most when thinking about this question is Brandon Ayuk, because, as I've said on this show, I love Ayuk the player. I think he fits the Shannan offense really really well, but there are a lot of things situationally that I don't like. The fact that he's likely going to have a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball. Historically that hasn't been a good thing, and that rookie quarterback is mobile that's also not a good thing. That there's pretty good competition there, that they're likely going to be run heavy, given that schedule and volume could be an issue. It's a talent versus situation dilemma, and I try not to fade talent. So I'm still drafting Ayuk in some spots. But the one thing I keep reminding myself is that where Ayuk is going, there are other talented players around him. It's not like if I pass on Brandon Ayuk, I'm drafting some scrub. I'm drafting a really good player as well. He's just been a tough evaluation for me this year. He hasn't been something that I've just totally avoided, but he also it hasn't been something that I've heavily targeted because of the situational things that aren't in his favor. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found in or if it's follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Also, one quick thing before I let you go. The regular season, as you know, it's almost here and as a result, I won't be able to be nearly as active with my email when it comes to these mailbag questions. If you guys could just hold off on sending emails for mailbag questions until after the season and just utilize Twitter. It would be greatly greatly appreciated. And please don't be one of those people who spams my inbox with start Sick questions. I want to help as many people as I possibly can, I promise you, But there are avenues on social media to ask those questions, whether it's my Twitter account or my start sit show every Sunday morning during the season, so I appreciate your understanding. I'm really excited to crush it the season with you guys, and I'm ready to win some fantasy football championships. Thanks, as always for listening. Have a great weekend.