893: Regression Candidates

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacheri jj zacherifon What's up Everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eight hundred and ninety three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: The term regression gets thrown around pretty loosely in the fantasy football space. If you've listened or read to fantasy content before, whether it's mine or not, you've likely heard the term regression is a return to a former or less developed state. In statistics, if one sample of a random variable is extreme, the next sampling of the same random variable is likely to be closer to its mean or its average. It's like when you go and play some golf, usually shoot ninety, and one day you shoot an eighty. But you didn't do anything special that day, maybe things just went your way. You should expect that number to regress back to your mean, which is ninety, the next time you play some golf. Regressions everywhere. In fantasy football. This is a numbers driven game. It's also a game of small sample sizes. Some crazy things can happen in a seventeen game sample, but we can use historical data to help us understand what's reasonably sustainable and what isn't. And that's what regression is all about in this game. It helps us understand if something is truly achievable, consistently achievable, or not. And that's important because a lot of times you'll find that fantasy managers sort of take what happened the previous season and they assume those same things are gonna happen in the current season. But regression can help us see if the market is accounting for statistical volatility or not. So on today's show, I'll be talking through a handful of players from last year who should see some regression here in twenty twenty four. It's a show that I do each year, but it's a nice way to ease into drafts since a lot of you haven't really started your research yet. Now, before get into the regression candidates, I just want to remind you that you can get a late Round draft guide for absolutely free.

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Speaker 2: Here's how it works.

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Speaker 1: If you're new to Underdog Fantasy, go to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up. Use promo code late Round when you do so, and then make a deposit. After doing that you'll get an email to your inbox from Underdog that has a link to the Draft Guide that's a twenty five dollars value for absolutely free. You can save money by doing this all while playing some best ball, which is obviously tons and tons of fun. The Draft Guide has everything you need to crush your drafts this year. About eighty percent of it is game theory driven, and the final twenty percent gets updated weekly. That twenty percent includes players to target, players to avoid, and late round dart throws. It also has my rankings and tiers, which now include auction values. You can purchase the guide for twenty four to ninety nine on lateround dot com, but you can get it for free, like I said, by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot com and using promo code late Round to sign up. That's promo code late Round. I want to start with the San Francisco forty nine ers offense just in general today. I remember talking about them entering last year and saying how they were almost definitely gonna see a dip in touchdowns per game in twenty twenty three, at least compared to how they performed with brock Perty in the regular season in twenty twenty two, and they did see a dip actually with Perty in the regular season when he took over. In twenty twenty two, the Niners averaged three point eight three touchdowns per game. That filled to three point five to three touchdowns per game in twenty twenty three, but they were still the best team at scoring touchdowns. I thought that they would be a little bit worse, so props to them. But with that being said, last season we had three teams hit three point three touchdowns per game or higher, the forty nine Ers, the Lions, and the Dolphins. Over the last twelve years, there have been twenty six teams with next season data to get to that three point three touchdowns per game mark, and of those twenty six, only one of them saw their touchdowns per game rate improve year over year. Eleven of the twenty six teams watched their touchdowns per game rate fall by a full touchdown. Twenty of the twenty six saw it drop by half of a touchdown. Half of a touchdown per game equates to eight and a half touchdowns across the season, which could be the difference in being a QB one and a QB two for a guy like Brock Perty so the forty nine ers have a very real chance to see fewer touchdowns this year. I still think they're gonna be good, but I don't think we should assume complete Nutter dominance. And that leads me to brock Purty. Perty has started his career with a touchdown rate above seven percent. His touchdown rate last year six point nine to eight percent, so rounded up it was seven percent, which is wild. A seven percent touchdown rate which is just touchdowns divided by attempts that's only been hit seventeen times by a quarterback since twenty eleven. That's basically between one to two of the tho seasons each year, and brock Perty's been above that mark through twenty one regular season starts. Now, some might say, well, that's just his average. I don't buy that. For him to maintain that he finished with the best touchdown rate in NFL history, I get that it's a good scheme and then he has incredible weapons, but there's clear regression coming his way. I think the market understands that to some degree, but based on Fantasy Pros rankings, I do think that he's a little bit overvalued now. All the while, one player who has helped out in that forty nine ers offense last year is Brandon Ayuk. And I like Ayuk the player a lot. I think he's a stud. But Ayuk did two things last year that are going to be hard to repeat. First, he had a twelve point eight yards per target rate. Prior to twenty twenty three, he'd never been above nine point seven within that metric. Ayuk is the only player in NFL history, or at least since they started tracking targets, to hit one hundred or more targets in the season and a yard per target rate above twelve, and he was at twelve point eight. Chances are he won't be as efficient per target in twenty twenty four. It's just not very repeatable, So if he doesn't see a bump in volume, he'll likely be a slightly worse asset. Now, another big name fantasy player who could see some unfavorable regression this season is Josh Allen. Now, don't take this the wrong way. I still have Allen as my QB one, but I do think this needs to be shouted out today. Allen had fifteen rushing touchdowns last year. Here are his rushing touchdown totals by year. Since entering the league eight nine, eight, six, seven, and fifteen. Can he spot the outlier? According to Pro Football Focuses Expected Touchdowns model, Alan overachieved in the rushing touchdown column by five point four last year. That was the most in football at quarterback. It was more than Jalen Hurts, who had the unstoppable push. I think Allen is still deserving to be the QB one. I just don't think he's the obvious QB one, if that makes sense. I'd be shocked if he scored fifteen rushing touchdowns again this year. You can't do a regression episode without talking about Devon a Chan. A Chan became the first player in NFL history last year to hit a seven point zero yards per carry average with one hundred or more rush attempts, and his yards per carry was seven point eight. If you look at an efficiency metric from twenty twenty three, among running backs, a Chan likely is at the top of the list, And if you think about what he did mathematically, there's almost no chance he's going to repeat what he did year over year. Let me just give you a very easy example as to why since twenty eleven we've had well over fifty running backs hit five yards per carry in one season with one hundred and more carries, and then see one hundred or more carries the following year. So they had one hundred carries one year, one hundred carries the following year. In that first season, their yards per carry was at or above five. Of those players, only twelve percent of them increase their yards per carry the following season, and that's at five yards per carry. Devon ah Chan was at seven point eight. This could be a case, though, where the consensus understands the regression is coming, so they price that into a player's cost. And I think that's happening to some degree with the Von ah Chan because what's the one thing that can combat a lack of efficiency, it's volume. An a Chan has a real shot to see more volume a higher percentage of Miami's backfield touches versus what he saw last year. So I'm actually more in than out with a Chan this year because of that. We've seen his ceiling. I talk about that in the draft guide, but we have to recognize that this insane efficiency isn't going to maintain. And I didn't even talk about his touchdown numbers or raheem. Moster are touchdown numbers, which are also likely going to regress. Garrett Wilson is getting a quarterback upgrade, so he's more than likely going to see better numbers in twenty twenty four than he had in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: But twenty twenty three was brutal.

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Speaker 1: Based on his volume and where that volume was coming from, I think it's safe to say that it was more of a quarterback problem than anything else last year for Garrett Wilson. But Wilson finished about three touchdowns below expectation last year. Based on PFF's expected touchdowns formula, he scored three times. He could have easily doubled that number based on his volume and based on where he was seeing his targets. But that's not all on him. Wilson also played about four PPR points per game below expectation after seeing one hundred and sixty eight targets. We don't often see high volume receivers give us such an efficiency. In fact, since twenty eleven, we've had over eighty one hundred and fifty plus target wide receivers. Wilson was at one hundred and sixty eight last year. Of those eighty plus wide outs. Just three of them had a lower yards per target rate than Garrett Wilson last year, Jarvis Landry, Alan Robinson and Larry Fitzgerald. We don't have next season data for Alan Robinson because he was hurt, but Landry followed up that inefficient year with the yards per target increase of point five. Fitzgerald increased his yards per target by two full yards, and for the record, Landry's volume didn't look anything like Wilson's did last year. His average at the target was six point three. Wilson's was ten point six. In other words, Landry's low average at the target was helping the lower yards per target number. It's no surprise that Larry Fitzgerald's twenty twelve is on that list. Arizona used a combination of John Skelton, Kevin Cobb, Ryan Linley, and Brian Hoyer at quarterback that year. That season, Fits only had four touchdowns. The following year on fewer targets, with Carson Palmer, he scored ten. This is yet another team level thing. The Jets were horrible last year converting touchdowns. Given the amount of offensive yards that they had. They scored a touchdown on every two hundred and fifty four yards. That's the fourth highest mark since twenty eleven. That's a number that regresses year over year. There have been ten teams with next season data who had a total yards to total offensive touchdowns ratio of two hundred and twenty five or greater. All but one of those teams improved that number the following year. The average increase in touchdowns per game among those teams was point six to eight, So that would be eleven or twelve more touchdowns for the Jets here in twenty twenty four. Now, Larry Fitzgerial was deeper into his career at that point than Garrett Wilson is into his. But that does seem like a good year over year statistical comp for Garrett Wilson, we have to expect some favorable regression. There's a lot of warranted hype for Nico Collins right now, but I do want to pour a little cold water on it. Collins had an amazing twenty twenty three season, but it also came with some unsustainable numbers. He ended up seeing a yards per target rate of eleven point nine hit a yards per round run rate of three point one. He was like a Brandon Ayuk light in terms of efficiency. Since twenty eleven, there have only been ten seasons where a wide receiver hit one hundred or more targets and saw a yards per target rate above eleven. You know how many of those players are on that list, more than once zero of them, because it's a really, really.

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Speaker 2: Hard number to maintain.

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Speaker 1: Now, the good part for Collins is that there's technically some room for improvement in the target share department. Collins had just a twenty one point nine percent target share per game rate last year. That's a good number, but it's an elite number now. I know Stefan Diggs is in the mix now, but injuries and other contingent upside factors could get that number up by a percentage point or two for Collins in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: But he's definitely due for some regression.

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Speaker 1: Those rate stats were we're talking about yards per target or yards per route run. They're almost definitely not going to maintain, and that's something to keep in mind during your drafts. Jerome Ford is also getting some love in the fantasy community this year because Nick Chubb is sidelined with that gruesome injury that he had last year. I'm more in the camp of I don't totally understand the love for Jerome Ford. He had his opportunity last year without Nick Chubb in that lineup, Like we saw what that looks like, and he was a low end RB two and PPR points per game. And Chubb has a chance to come back during the most important part of the fantasy season this year. Now, maybe you're bullish on the new look offense like I am. I can understand that, and Ford's a capable pass catcher. There could be a role there for him. But look at how he performed last year, and look at how it wasn't that sustainable despite not even having amazing, amazing numbers. Ford scored five receiving touchdowns in twenty twenty three. That was roughly three receiving touchdowns above expectation. And then he also outperformed in rushing touchdowns by another score, So he played about four touchdowns above expectation in twenty twenty three. That's based on where he was seeing his touches in that Browns offense. Now, like any of the players who are regression candidates in efficiency, he could always look okay because of a volume increase, a hypothetical volume increase, but Ford was brutal at gaining positive yards last year. He had a bottom fifteen number at the position among all backs who carried the ball one hundred or more times since twenty eleven. I've gotten Ford in some Best Ball drafts, but I'm not as bollish on him as some others are. And regression is part of the reason why someone who's pretty polarizing right now, and honestly I don't have a super super strong opinion here just for the record, but that polarizing player is Javonte Williams. There was a report out last week about how the last running back roster spot on the Broncos could come to down to Williams's samaj p Ryan. And while I don't personally think that Williams is gonna get cut, the fact that there's talk about it that can't be a good thing. Williams, though, clearly had some stuff working against him last year, number one being his recovery from his knee injury. Literally across the board, Williams saw worse numbers in twenty twenty three than he had seen in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, his.

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Speaker 1: Yards per carry was down by zero point eight yards. His rate of getting ten plus yards was under ten percent for the first time in his career. He gained twenty or more yards on less than one percent of his rushes, another career low. But Williams usage really wasn't as bad as people realize. We all know that Sean Payton loves using his running backs out of the backfield as receivers. He owns eight of the top twenty seasons since twenty eleven in team running back target share, which is absolutely insane. Williams himself averaged a target shair per game rate above twelve percent last year. He just wasn't efficient and he failed to register touchdowns. He underperformed in a touchdown column by almost three scores, and his PPR points per game number was roughly two point six points lower than expected. Part of the reason for that is what we saw at the team level. A lot of this stuff starts at that team level. Denver with Russell Wilson scored over seventy seven percent of their touchdowns last year through the air. That's a number that, based on history, we would expect to drop by twelve or thirteen percentage points year over year. If you were to guarantee me Javonte Williams exact same workload this year, the same one that he saw last year. I actually think that he might be an underrated asset. There are just things working against him right now with Julil McLoughlin, who I love, and then rodri guestime and as a result, Javonte Williams is not an easy target.

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Speaker 2: But he is a regression candidate.

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Speaker 1: The last player want to get to today, and there are tons of players we could talk about, but the last one is Sam Laporta. Usually you don't get a regression candidate or an unfavorable regression candidate from a rookie player going into his second year. But Laporta played on a Lion's offense that scored a lot of touchdowns last year, and like San Francisco, they probably won't have as many touchdowns this year just based on what we've seen go down historically. Laporta ended up scoring over three more touchdowns than he was expected to last year, so a drop in overall team offensive touchdowns could have a sincere impact on his bottom line. Here in twenty twenty four, I mean, he scored a touchdown on every twelve targets last season. Since twenty eleven, only Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Travis Kelce have been able to post multiple seasons where their targets to touchdowns rate was fifteen or lower. Kelsey has only done it twice. I do think Laporta is special, and then he's probably going to be the next elite tight end in fantasy football if he's not already there. So don't take this as a dig on him. I love him as a player. It's just that more often than not, he's probably not going to score at the clip that he scored at last year, and that's a differentiator for me between Laporta and Travis Kelce. This year, the Chiefs are bound to score a lot more touchdowns in twenty twenty four. The Lions might have a harder time maintaining where they were at in twenty twenty three, and that can be the difference now.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, there are so many more.

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Speaker 1: Candidates that I could have gotten to today, but I wanted to point out some of the more intriguing ones. Hopefully it made you think about these guys a little bit differently. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found it. Don't follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure you're subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. I've been doing a lot of live stream drafts over there, and every time I go live you get notified. So subscribe YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.

00:19:00
Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'll be back tomorrow with another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro