Late-Round Perspectives: Ian Hartitz

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Speaker 1: Ian Harditz is a senior fantasy analyst at Fantasylife dot com who spend time with Action Network, NBC Sports, and Pro Football Focus. He's got the best meme game in the fantasy football industry, and he loves to remind you that every day is a great day to be great. These are his late round perspectives. It's so funny to me how we go all off season and we focus so much on the draft, and like, what percent do you think the draft matters? Like at the end of the day for your fantasy squad, do you.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: See the same numbers I do? Like, Okay, there are a few rookies here and there, but they're almost all restricted to you know, the first two rounds, sometimes round three, and after that we're pretty much playing the waiting game with it. So you know those guys, the free agent acquisitions as well, Like we just regularly overhype them. It's the guys we talk about all year long, and then we finally get the week one and we remember, oh, yeah, guess what, the guy's sitting on the couch playing with the same thing they did last year. Probably actually the ones that we're gonna be talking about the most once we finally get in actual football, which we have JJ and thank god, man, I'm ready for it.

00:01:08
Speaker 1: Thank god. Yeah, we we did a draft back in I don't know when was that, but I guess it was like early August with the Apex Writers League. That's something that that I've already talked about on this show because I had Sigmund Bluem on with the first episode. I had Sean Siegel on with the second one. I'm going to ask you a question about your squad, but first you and I we find No, we hadn't met before, but we we rekindled and saw each other again in Canton at the Fantasy Football Xpo, which was a great time. You mentioned that you had a history as being a player, which I didn't I didn't totally know about. You know, you can get into detail or not get into detail. It's up to you. Think about that, think about the fact that you had that background. I then thought about, like, what you are as an analyst in your process as an analyst. So do you think that that background as a player thinking about football in that way a little bit differently than what a nerd like me might think about football. Do you think that plays a role in like how you're approaching fantasy football and such.

00:02:04
Speaker 2: Just to be clear football player here, I like to think that I've done okay over the I found a fiance to take the last name heart It's JJ, So I've done okay from that department over the years. But now it looks specifically, and I mean, okay, I did play football, but I was at you know, Division III school, white slow linebacker, had no you know, thoughts about ever going to the next level or anything. You get hit in the head a few times and you know that kind of state of things, and all of a sudden, the professional future definitely goes out the window. But if anything, man, I would just say that it's helped me over the years, you know, being able to watch film and just not maybe jump to as many conclusions. And I think that's something anyone can learn without having played the game and stuff. But you know, just realizing, like okay, that blown coverage, the safety coming over the top to help while the cornerback was playing the zone everyone else was playing. Man being able to kind of put together maybe where the mistake was made a little bit better and someone that hasn't actively got into it. But man, I think the whole film versus you know analytics argument, it's which again shouldn't be an argument. Analytics aren't reflecting what we're seeing on the film. Guess what, it's probably a bad stat or analytic whoever you want to call it in the first place. So overall, just understanding of the game. I think it gave me a heads up. But again, if you're just trying to take all these resources we have available in the year twenty twenty three, doing your best to you know, ask good questions on a day by day basis, I think you'll be fine. So definitely miss those days, man. I mean, before I fell in love with fantasy football, was definitely more of just a quote unquote real life football fan, and you know, it was tough to get the juices flowing more than actually, you know, getting out there and banging some helmets. But definitely fine to be, you know, in the nerd streets like you these days in front of my computer.

00:03:37
Speaker 1: The nerds treats all of it. Yeah, man, I mean, like I feel like we've had that like weird debate of film versus analytics. It started prob I mean, look, I've been part of a fantasy football industry for about ten years now. You've been around for a while too, and I feel like it was a lot more heated way back when there was just a lot more divisiveness with like and split between these two sort of actions. But at the end of the day, if you are approaching things from a numbers driven perspective, you should at least be looking at what's going on so that you can talk intelligently about the game and vice versa to some degree, you know, like like if you're strictly a film guy. I mean, at the end of the day, fantasy football is and numbers driven game, right, it still matters to some degree to be able to dissect things in that way. So I think you're right, you know, in the way that that we probably should be approaching this. You know, I always say sort of like lean into what you know you're good at too. You know, I'm not gonna pretend like I can break down film the same way that you know a Dane Brugler can whenever he's prospecting guys and stuff like that, right, But I can. I can always bring something to the table with some of the modeling that I've done and stuff like that. So you know. I just I think that's part of the thing too, is that it's okay to lean on other analysts whenever you're doing this stuff, because other guys are are better than you at what you're doing. Guys and gals, I just mean guys as in person in general, because clearly we have a female contingent here too that are that are analyzing this stuff.

00:04:58
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, real quick, like and you mentioned like Dan Brugler and yourself, man, like, your prospect model's freaking fantastic. Like, I really do recognize kind of the biggest hole in my game as an analyst is just kind of the lack of knowledge about some of these rookie players. You know, it is tough for me to take every single Saturday off as well as the Sunday and try to enjoy some semblance of you know, my family and friends not completely hating me during every single football season. So I definitely think, you know, from that perspective, it makes a lot of sense. And but at the end of the day, man like you and me, we're just so lucky to be able to go out here and do this every single day for our job. And I feel like if I'm not making an effort to watch every single football game that I'm just you know, not really doing what I need to do for the people that believe in me. And that so there was a you know, he said a lot of wonky things over the years, but Con McGregor had to quote a couple of years ago we were saying, like, your you know, your lack of discipline is a insult everyone that believes in you. And that's kind of what I go by with that, where you know, when we're talking for a living like we do, man, one of the easiest ways that you cannot say something really stupid about a game, not say a player suck because of that to catch fifteen yards score as performance. When you watch the game, you see all the overthrows and missed opportunities. Again, piece of the puzzle, maybe not the biggest piece, but it is a piece nonetheless, So why not try to do what we can with it?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Man, the fact that we are doing this for a living, like, I try not to lose sight of that each day that I'm doing this. I mean, we're recording this podcast, and you know, it's crazy that we're able to do this in the first place. But it's also one of the things where like I bring people on like you or like Seagull last week or Bloom, and everyone's coming and this is what late round perspective is all about. People are coming forth with these different outlooks and perspectives on things, right, and you're able to learn. And you're also I'm listening to you guys talk and I'm like, I gotta get better, man, I go, I gotta keep getting better at this stuff because I can't lag behind, because that's not fair to people who are listening, people who are relying on us all that stuff. So love that outlook. For sure. When you're entering a fantasy draft, you and I play in a lot of leagues together, do you have sort of like a structure in mind of how you're gonna build your roster or are you looking at the board? Are you reacting based on what's gone on in the draft, or it's a little bit of both.

00:07:11
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit of both. You know, I've had and I'm sure we all wrote this at one point another kind of like our draft strategy for this year. Ten tips, and I think any of them zero RB, Hero RB, super Hero ORB, whatever the hell you want to call the new hip thing. They can all work in the right context, in the right format, in the right draft. But one of the things I've tried to really just note is, you know, trying to be like Bruce Lee and being like water and just being flexible enough in your drafts to take advantage of some of that value that falls to you. I mean, again, you mentioned the Apex Experts League a little bit earlier, and I took Josh Allen in the middle of round three. Didn't draft a lot of Josh Allen in Round three throughout the fantasy season, but when I was in a draft where my wide receivers were gone, DK metcalfm at one pick before that. Throughout the offseason, him and Calvin Ridley have really been where I've been drawing that line up wide receiver and then the running backs have been gone, you know, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Takuon Barkley. Once we kind of get past that group, it also gets tougher. So at some point in August, I was just looking at it and I decided I wasn't going to play this, you know, wide receiver running back chase with the rest of the league. I'm gonna draft on my terms, and for me, those elite qbs in round three, once the right tier breaks occur at RB a wide receiver became the times when I was ready to go down that road. So again, it's not the sexiest answer just say, you know, go at the flow of the drafts. But I do think you know, having the overall understanding of you know, an eighteen round draft and where you do have those tier clips at different spots, it enables you to again take that value that you'll find only in specific drafts and then fix up the rest later. Yeah.

00:08:37
Speaker 1: I sort of think about drafting and kind of reacting to drafts and like the information that we throw out there all off season long, and people consuming this information and sort of using that info for their drafts. I think it's very easy to walk away and be like, man, I know way more than I needed to know in order to draft this fifteen player roster, right, I only needed to know about like thirty guys, probably because those are the decision making you know, the things that I'm deciding as the draft is going on. But the way that I see it is the more information you have on these players and on these situations, the more reactive and nimble you're gonna be while you're drafting. And I really think this is evident with prospecting, and as it pertains not just to dynasty but to redraft right where you know, someone like Trey Palmer right now, where you don't need to add Trey Palmer more than likely off off waivers right now today and like a normal twelve team league. But at the same time, it's good to know that, let's say, you know my prospect model like Trey Palmer a little bit more than where he was being drafted, and so you know that the time that he were to get if he were to get some work, you know that that's the time to pounce on the waiver wire, hopefully quicker than what your league mates might do. Now, you know, you'll sometimes get some some prospects breaking out and it being really really obvious. You know, it's not always just like kind of creepily getting there where he's like, you know, getting more snaps not maybe the production's not totally there yet. But I do think that like this idea of being reactive. You know, you say that it's sort of a lame answer, but I think it's a very real answer. And it goes back to just having this like inherent knowledge of fantasy football and of these players. That's what allows you to be very, very nimble while drafts are going on and understanding tears. As you said, I don't know about you, but like, and you mentioned it just now, but like it just seemed like there was an obvious mid third round break this year where things just got super super flat. You know, you mentioned sounds like your cutoff was like that Calvin Ridley DK metcalf Range. I would agree for the most part. You know, I think that maybe you can make an argument for a couple of other wide receivers or like a Remandre if you wanted to reach a little bit. But but you know, there's players that you know they were they were iffy enough where that's where the line just seemed to really be drawn very obviously with the quarterback position. I'm assuming you didn't go after second round quarterbacks then this season? Is that correct?

00:10:55
Speaker 2: Nah? And look, I I will say I've tried to test. I mean, look, you know how it is now with these best pall streets. It's fantastic, especially if you guys like ourselves trying to do the content creator side of things, and just getting like hundreds of reps without you know, committing to waiver wires and all this shit throughout the entire season is so valuable, man, Cuz, Yeah, going through all this stuff, I'll see people arguing about, you know, maybe like how is Miles Sanders like the RB nineteen and stuff, and for me it wasn't. It's like you can't argue about the positional rankings, and that's part of it, sure, But for me, it's always like, Okay, when I'm taking Miles Sanders into round six of drafts, like what's the opportunity cost, what's my roster now going to look like? Taking a running back there? Not necessarily like Miles Sanders himself, just nameless, faceless fantasy that's over here, JJ. But again, so just really getting those reps and has allowed me to see not only the tiers and everything, but also just see like where things can go right, where things can go wrong. So early on in the off season trying to do some of those, especially Kelsey and you know, my home stacks in round one, round two really didn't like on my roster looked at the end of the day, and no, I can't predict the future. Maybe that will end up be in the you know, we're gonna try it predict the future, r I should say, but maybe that will end up being the optimal stack. But just feel so light at either running back or wide receiver when I'm going QB in round two. Not quite for me. But again, just one of those things in terms of like how do you develop the draft strategy? A lot of it is reps. And I don't think you need to be going out there and playing in ten, you know, thousand dollars high stakes leagues or anything. But you don't have to again, just entering a couple handfuls of these three dollars five dollars puppies on Underdog or something like that. Man so invaluable out there in those streets. I've likened it before. I don't know if you've ever seen the Netflix show Queen's Gambit. It was really hot a couple of years ago. But this ace like Chess Master. She'd be laying in bed at night just she could look up at the ceiling and all of a sudden, the pieces would appear, and she's just kind of going through all these moves in her mind. Like after I've kind of gotten ten, maybe twelve fancy drafts under my belt. Ur in a given offseason, I really feel like you can again start to not only see like what I'm choosing between in round two, round three, but then how that's gonna impact the rest of your draft and what sacrifices you're gonna have to make later. So again, maybe there's not one one size all fits all you know strategy out there, And you know the answer might just be hard work and all facets of the game. Man, what a wild thought that would be.

00:13:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, So instead of you laying in bed looking at the ceiling and envisioning chess, you're on your phone drafting Best Ball drafts and doing Best Ball drafts. Yeah.

00:13:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, my fiance hates me, but you know, it is what it is.

00:13:23
Speaker 1: So you did get Josh Allen that in that Apex league. You stack them though with digs, which also made it an easier kind of route to go because you at least get that upside. You know, if that stack really really pans out, and obviously it's one of the best looking stacks that you can find in a draft like that. That draft is historically insanely wide receiver heavy, like like unbelievably wide receiver heavy in a draft like that, do you ever get afraid of falling behind at that position? And that would then force you to maybe go with like an Amari Cooper or something like that instead of a Josh Allen or are you okay? Was kind of sticking your board a little bit because you know that later in the draft when people kind of stopped draft wide receivers as heavily, you know you might be able to find value that way.

00:14:04
Speaker 2: Definitely something to think of, and you aren't kidding about that room. I remember the first time I was in it, like I was taking all these great running back values earlier, like oh what the hell? Like I thought these were supposed to be experts, and I found out very quickly what exactly you guys go ahead and do over here in the apex. But I will say having digs and then Jayleen Waddall come back to me and round two like allowed me to go off the street just a little bit. But you know, getting Mike Williams round four when ahead and made up for that in a hurry. But yeah, man drafted Naji Harrison round five. I don't even I don't like it, man, It was crazy. I remember it was like two am. I fell asleep on the couch. I woke up and I was like, oh, I'm off, might as well get this done. And I woke up next day I was like, yeah, what the hell are you thinking?

00:14:42
Speaker 1: Man?

00:14:43
Speaker 2: So this is one of maybe like three or four leagues, like including Best Ball, which is you know, now we're talking out of probably two hundred total leagues I did this year that I end up with Naji Harris. So at the same time, like to say, don't hate the player, hate the ADP. Round three Naji Harris is ridiculous. Round five I can get around a little bit more. But yeah, man, it is one of those things with wide receiver where particularly this league, and I don't know about you, man, but overall this year, like my strategy and more leagues and not try to get five of those top forty five, maybe top fifty wide receivers inside the first nine rounds, because I get it, we do have our late round targets after that, but I just feel like, you know, in the middle and late stages of the draft, that's where I want to be throwing my darts at these handcuff RB types who are one injury away from being must start options, not the Van Jeffersons and the Alex Pierces of the world where you're just never really gonna feel good about starring them anyway. So definitely in this league, you know, gotta go heavy with the wide receivers early. But you know, maybe I'm just late to the party here with zero RB, but I really felt like this year zero RB, or maybe getting one or two early before just going on a run of them was the proper roster construction.

00:15:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to throw the caveat out there that we're recording this on Wednesday this week. This is before the Thursday night game and before Van Jefferson and Alex Pierce inevitably go off this weekend.

00:15:57
Speaker 2: That's all works. That's all it works.

00:15:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, right exactly. So Harris, things interesting because I'm with you on the fade train, like in the third round, like it just it's it doesn't do it for me when the ceiling just seems very capped from a receiving perspective and from like a Jalen Warren perspective, Do you have any fear with a player like Harris that cause a lot of fantasy analysts are not on Naji Harris this year, Like it's not a unique take to say that you're fading Harris or you haven't gotten Harris that that much in the fifth round. I'm with you, that was a great value. Like I would have I would have gotten him. I was in the the the later parts of the draft, so I wasn't able to snag him there, and I wasn't gonna get him in the early fourth. But you know, in the fifth round, that's obviously really really good value. And as you said, don't hate the player, hate the ADP. Is there any fear in your mind that we could all be wrong with Naji Harris and that this is like another I don't want to say it's a Josh Jacobs situation, because you know, Jacobs not only was going later in drafts, but you know, I think that that Jacobs obviously had far less competition last year than what Nause's facing. But do you think that there is an out here for Harris to be like a top five back or do you feel pretty confident that you know he's gonna be at best like a low end RB one or something like that.

00:17:09
Speaker 2: I do think he could get back to low end RB one numbers. The problem is man like as much as he wasn't really good last year from an efficiency basis, and he wasn't good as a rookie on an efficiency basis, like adding Jyleen Moarren in there. I mean we've seen it over the years, man from Leveon Bell to the di'angelo Williams, like James Connor, Stephen freaking Ridley used to get in every down workhorse role like in Week seventeen. Back in the day, Mike Tomlin self pronounced featured runner type of guy. That's what Najie Harris was in twenty twenty one. I mean the RB two and expected PPR points per game behind only Derrick Henry. So guess what when he was inefficient and the offense wasn't that good, that was okay, you've still fell down to low end RB one territory. But when you add Jayleen Warren and they're legit taking those fantasy friendly passed down snaps and yes not taking over the back we will, but turning it more into a seventy thirty situation as opposed to literally ninety ten situation we were looking at in twenty twenty one. It's enough to make Nause again very risky at that third round valuation, because again now we're talking about more of a borderline RB one workload, where if he's going to falter with that, now we're falling deep into the RB two deaths. So just depends on if this you know, offensive line can make life a little bit easier. They did obviously add you know, the first round tackle there, so definitely trying from that point. And then can Canny Pickett give them some semblance of scoring upside, which I know, I know just the preseason, but I'd proud of the guys be good in preseason than shitty and five touchdowns and five drives good signs there. So I see the pathway, and you know, I see the pathway for a lot of guys like Najie Harris and James Connor and Cam Akers, these inefficient, hopeful workhorse running backs and probably bad offenses. And that really was the other reason why I wasn't drafting a ton of Nause. Didn't see why he should be getting prioritized ahead of all those other guys, who again I thought fit a very similar archetype.

00:18:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would argue that there's guys in the dead zone this year that have just more inherent upside than he does. Like I think that you could make the argument pretty easily that like a David Montgomery has more upside than Najie Harris because he has the contingent upside of if Jamiir Gibbs gets banged up, then Montgomery's all of a sudden, the true three down back and one of the better offense in the league, playing in a dome, all that good stuff.

00:19:12
Speaker 2: And I know that they still one of the better offenses in the league. JJ, I'm starting to wonder.

00:19:16
Speaker 1: About are you are that? Talk to me about it? Talk to me about it? Are you are you? Are you down on this Lions offense this year?

00:19:22
Speaker 2: So okay, I know they were number five last year. That happened, no one can take that away from them. But it's not like every single year we see it's one repeat in the top ten scoring offense. In fact, since two thousand and four, point nine on average repeat as a top ten scoring group from the next season. And if you look at it, last year, there were only three top ten scoring offense that also had a bottom ten scoring defense, leading to someone that shootout friendly, fantasy friendly, you know, game script Lions, of Vikings, and Seahawks. So when I read the top ten scoring offense from last season, again realizing that historically we should expect about five of these teams to fall off, Chiefs, Eagles, Boys, Bills, Lions, forty nine Ers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, and Jaguars. I mean, we can't love every single offense in the league. Man, And as great as we saw Ben Johnson calling those plays, I do tend to think that the gyms and Joe's outweigh the x's and o's at a certain point. This would not be the first time we saw a play caller I have a lot of success in his first year of doing it, but then defenses catch up a little bit more. And as much as I love the sun God, Okay, Jared Goff, let's not pretend like it's been five straight years of just lights out play by him, one time after another. Maybe Jamir Gibbs and San Laporta are going to be fantastic pros. They are rookies, and as we kind of talked about at the beginning of the show, man expecting rookies to come out of the gate flying high and stuff. It's it's a lot to ask for Dave Montgomery. I see what you're saying. Bears fans listening, I think we can agree it's not exactly someone's been knocking on the top five real life RB door. And then it's like, what are we doing here, old man, Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds. The fact they couldn't add any sort of wide receiver death from this room behind the sun. God, man, it's just brutal for me. So I think more questions that you need to be asked about this Lion's team and now they get to play this banged up Chiefs team on Thursday night. I'm sure they all obviously already had some you know, crazy upset. I'm not sure when people are going to be listening to this, So thirty five points from golf on Thursday nights to make me look really stupid once you're hearing this. But again, man, a lot of emphasis on the rookies, and I just think, like, did you watch the Lions last year and go, man, if they just had some better running backs, like we'd even be more set. Yeah, I think I have a steep will fall off here.

00:21:26
Speaker 1: Look, I think that's a very fair take, very very fair take and the other offense in that group that I'll throw out there. This is apparently just going to be our stuff that's been in our dome that we haven't necessarily fired off, you know, confidently yet. But I'm gonna say San Francisco also part of that part of that group. They were unbelievably unsustainable in the way that they scored touchdowns with brock Perty last year when when he became started, they averaged three point a three offensive touchdowns per game in the regular season when he was started at six, best of any team since twenty eleven. That's not going to maintain. That's not going to keep up. I just don't see that necessarily happening. I think I just think there's a lot of volatility to you know, I think Perty's fine. It's like a best ball quarterback. I drafted a lot of them. And you know, I'm not saying that he's not a target. I'm not even saying that some of these forty nine ers players aren't targets. But I do think that there is some volatility with an offense like that too. But I do think, you know, you naming those offenses, you talking through those offenses, Detroit's got to be up there, you know, as one of those teams. It's sort of like how we look at the playoffs each year, how there's turnover in the playoffs, and we got a pinpoint which teams are going to be in which ones aren't gonna be in you know, the following season. I could see that happening with Detroit. My main point. With a guy like Montgomery, you could say, even like a Rashad White, who's gonna probably have a decent receiving role, there's a lot of players that I think could match a Nausei Harris Median projection, right yeah, or they could also match a ceiling projection if things sort of break their way, you know, properly, like a Rashad White. Everyone will sit there and say the offense sucks and there's no way that White is able to to be a top you know, twelve thirteen fourteen back. But I would argue that the receiving work would be there in droves, and that's that's the way he could be a very very highly used back in that backfield. And that's the way that he gets there just purely on volume alone. And maybe, you know, maybe that offense maybe Baker Mayfield a little bit better than we expect. But I just think that where Nase has gotten drafted this offseason is sort of where the dead zone kind of clearly starts for me, at least, you know, it's like around that Nause maybe ETN tier, and it just sort of remains fairly flat from a ceiling perspective. There's just not many guys that you know, I'm gonna get fired up about in that range compared to guys that I'm gonna get as RB three, as RB four. So I'm with you on Nase. I just think it's gonna be interesting because if Nase hits this year, if Nag is like a top six running back, people are going to hate fantasy football analysts because there's a lot of fantasy football analysts that have not been on Naji Harris another player I really want to talk about because I've gotten some hate for this take in my stance on Deshaun Watson, But you wrote, Deshaun Watson is my single favorite quarterback target and fantasy football if fading the true early round options. So I want to ask you to expand on that a little bit because you know I have personally I have Deshaun Watson in the same tier as at Trevor Lawrence this year, and it's mostly because I'm looking at it from a ceiling perspective, and you know, someone will say, you know, I think median projection and my projection show that Trevor Lawrence looks better than Deshaun Watson. But it's really hard for me to get away from what we saw from Watson the last full season he played. So sell not me necessarily, but sell others on why you like Deshaun Watson this year.

00:24:36
Speaker 2: I mean last year was around this. We all saw it. Sam ePaper drop back, as Zach Wilson says, it all right there. But even with that man again six games of being terrible, four other seasons being one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks we've ever seen include last year, go ahead. Watson remains one of five quarterbacks ever averaging twenty plus fantasy points per game for their career. Last time we saw him play a full season, he led the league and passing yards. And we know he's a safe not a safe bet, but we know he can give us five hundred plus rushing yards and a handful of touchdowns on the ground. During any given year as well. So if I you know, I asked myself this question earlier in the offseason, if Watson just didn't play football last year, didn't have to you know, come in, didn't practice with the team, comes back towards the end of the year, they were still running to you know, Dick Chubbs, Kobe Brissett's sort of offense. There, Like, where would Watson just be going at the last time we saw him was leading the league in passing yards, And I think you're right, I think he'd be right in there in that Tee Lall, justin Herbert maybe even Joe Burrow tier of quarterbacks. So the fact that you can get that sort of talent a lot of times man round eight every now and then round nine. It's just like if you're asking yourself and you know, shout out Patrick Krane. Not that he needs any shoutouts. He's got enough millions of dollars to be just fine without my kind words. But really smart thing that passed said earlier in the offseason was just you know, asking yourself in these rounds, like what can I get here that I can't get later? And again, we talked to you earlier I'm not completely against taking a Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts early if the right guys are off the board and everything, But I have I found myself in that part of the draft leaning towards the alpha wide receivers I know aren't going to be there in round eight or nine, because I do think the best version of the Sean Watson it could very likely man be right back in that round three, round four conversation next year. So we've seen in the offseason Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman coming into the fold. They have made an effort to spruce up those weapons, and you know, I did notice and again just preseason, but schematically maybe we can get some takeaways there. I mean, they ran the most empty in the entire NFL in the preseason and it wasn't particularly close, and their past play rate man ranked seventh overall after being twenty fourth last year. So I just kind of threw that out there in a tweet and I was like, you know, maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't, And very smart real life analyst Robert Mays actually came knocking on my Twitter door and went ahead and said that he does think that Cleveland one matters because it really matches everything he heard in some of those training camp circles. So guess what that Texans team that Deshaun Watson again led the NFL and passing yards on, they were horrendous, Like that was a four and twelve really bad football team. But when you have a dual threat talent like Watson, We've seen a Tome and Tom and gam with your own freaking late round QB strategy. Just how much of a cheat code those guys can be. It's the you know, rushing quarterbacks and receiving running backs, So the two archetypes that just break people's minds sometimes that don't follow fantasy because they're cheat codes in our game, but maybe not quite as good in real life. So you know, lost kind of in the Watson season last year was his rushing yards were actually a little bit up on a pro game basis. I want to say three of those six games had a game total of like forty because we get that token, you know, shitty Cleveland weather in December, so again, a lot of outs for a player. And I'm just at the end of the day going to side with the four year sample size versus the six game one.

00:27:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I'm with you full agreement. And part of it too is if you're in a shallower league, it's gonna be easier to take on Watson if he does end up being last year as Watson right, if he just ends up just being bad. If you're in a shallow league, you can make up for that a little bit easier. If you're in a deeper league, then yeah, I mean you might want to platoon him, you might want to think a little bit differently about the position. But I'm with you. I mean, I'm shooting for upside. I'm chasing upside at quarterback when I'm not drafting the truly elite guys because the opportunity cost when you get in those middle rounds is just not significant enough to not do that. And so I'm with you. I think I think Watson, you know, he too, is one of my my single favorite quarterback target this year. Now, speaking of the Browns, I've been in on Elijah Moore, I've also been in on Donovan People's Jones this year. I think that they're both fine to draft. I know that you've been into DPJ. Does that mean that you're out on Elijah Moore? Is there any concern that you have about Elijah Moore given the fact that I think we got to be realistic here, He's probably not going to play in two wide sets at least to start the year. I mean, I think DPJ is gonna be playing the perimeter and Elijah Moore is going to play the more natural slot role that he played in college. Now, the weird thing about More is that he's actually really good rookie season playing on the outside. He played a pretty low snap rate in the slot his rookie year, and that's what got me really really excited, because I liked him as a prospect, but I was like, maybe he'll just be a slot guy in the NFL, even though my model likes him a good bit. And then he goes to the Jets and his rookie season, you know, everything looks great on paper in I mean why, I mean, he looked good too, and he was beating corners on the outside on the perimeter despite his frame. And then last year happens, which you know, you can kind of write off because it was such a weird season for him in the Jets. But I do think that we're likely going to see him in a slot role. Does that worry you about him being a consistent fantasy asset and does that make you just lean into DPG a little bit more?

00:29:24
Speaker 2: I will say the running back stuff at Elijah, I do think it's important, especially with them not adding any other of these you know, potential pass downdbacks that could take that away. Maybe a healthy derme Ford does, like Lord knows, I'd love that thanks to how much I've drafted him as well. You know, around sixteenth or eighteen, I've drafted all these Browns with Tom Men the joke you a lot too. In round tenks, I think there's a pretty steep drop off at tight end after that point. So I hear you there, And I'm not gonna sit here and call you know, Elijah Moore just the next Deebo Samuel, because we'd say that for every freaking wide receiver that ever gets a carry. But how about like a mid twenty tens like Randall Cobb, you know, give me like ten to fifteen carries per season. Give me some funky, know just designs like you know, the Jaguars did that have with Christian Kirk a good amount last year. Ceedee Lamb had some reps like that as well, Like, just because you're getting some snaps as a running back doesn't mean you're just now this gadget player that can't get it done. I'm fine with my players getting those gadget touches. No one complains about it. For Debo, it's only if it comes at the loss of a true starting role. And as much as again maybe in twelve personnel, we're not going to see that as often with the amount that they're getting potentially scheming up the more targets per out run for Elijah, I think it'll be okay. So at the end of the day, man I just pulled off my best ball exposure in number one drafted wide receiver easily Deontay Johnson come out, but three way tie for second, Rashaan Bateman, DPJ, and Elijah Moore. I drafted them in the exact same amount of drafts together, so a lot of stacks that have been Watson, then Elijah Moore right after, and then you go ahead and get DPJ later. So yeah, man I really did come around more so on Elijah heavy in August once we saw not only was he again just getting the new fresh start, but being featured the way he was being a true every down starter, and again if I'm not every down starter, but you know what I mean, just being a starting wide receiver in the offense. And if I'm that high on the Seaun Watson ways should probably be pretty high on his pass catchers as well. So, you know, just getting incredibly invested in the Cleveland Browns. What could go wrong here for me and my finances? But end of the day, man, again, I just think if you look at the Browns offense, pretty much everyone other than Chubb and Cooper are being priced far closer to their floors than their ceiling. And DPJ, in particular, man, I would say him, Jaden Reid, and Devonte Parker were the three just late round wide receivers where if I was going to go out on my way to get one, if be those guys. Because you know, I'm curious what kind of your prospect model said about DPJ because as much as Michigan keeps kicking my Buckeyes at asses recently, there was a time before twenty twenty when you know, it was just a weird run first offense and we were seeing guys like DPJ, like Nico Collins be really hyped up recruits, but just maybe not get as many opportunities as they might have in a different offense. So what did you think of DPJ coming out?

00:31:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I kind of saw him the same way that I saw like an go where you know, it's a very easy like comp and and sort of situation to look like. But they're both sort of that archetype can play the perimeter. Well, you know, Nico can play that X and you know DPG able to do the same, and I you know, they weren't like stellar prospects per se, but they weren't bad. They were they were totally fine. And the nice part is is that we've seen growth from both of those guys, you know, so far in the league. And so I've bought into DPJ probably later in the process because I was a little bit worried about Cedric Tillman at first. Even though I wasn't super super high on Tilman as a prospect, I was just more concerned about how the Browns might want to deploy him, because I think that if you're gonna look at like a redundant asset, it would be Tilman to DPJ as opposed to Tillman to Elijah More obviously for sure, and so but but yeah, I mean where DPJ has gone in drafts, it just makes a ton of sense because I'm with you, I'm buying into this Browns passing attack, and I think we will see a lot of eleven personnel and so that's that's part of the reason why I'm cool with going more. I also think that that, you know, we always talk about these like specific roles that these guys play, like, well we'll say, oh, this guy's a slot guy or this guy you know z X or whatever, But guys move around formations all the time. You know, when you're in twelve personnel, Elijah More can still be on the field with Amari Cooper. You know, it's not like this is a locked in, always going to happen kind of thing. And so, you know, I think that just throwing darts, getting pieces of this offense, you know, just makes a lot of sense from a process standpoint. You know, the guys that you just name too, guys that I've been drafting and a lot of my best ball drafts too. So it looks like we're riding together this year. Man. Hopefully, hopefully my boy Jaden Reid comes through because I think that people have been sick of hearing his name on this podcast. Speaking of this podcast, one of the reasons why I really wanted to start Late Round Perspectives is because I throw out takes all week. Right, I'm giving takes on who I like, who I don't like, why I do, why I do, why I don't, and I don't have any other perspective on these things that I'm saying. Right, I am the one who's editing this show, and then I pup push the show and no one else is listening to it before it goes out into the into the world, And it's kind of a thrilling experience, right because I'm like, how are people going to react to these things that I'm saying? But at the same time, I don't know how other analysts are really reacting to the thing that, like, I might be seeing something that literally no other analysts in the space is seeing, and that's a little bit weird too. So I wanted to start the show to just kind of have conversations not just about like your processes, you know, your background and how you view this game, but also, you know, get reactions to some of the insane stuff that I might be saying on this show, and one of the insane things that I said this week was with Derrick Henry. I had Derick Henry as a cell candidate on my fifteen Transaction show. Now, I should say, from like a positional ranking perspective, I have Dereck Henry right at market because it's kind of hard to be overly high or overly low on him within the running back position because we've had these situations where like Breece Hall dropped, Ramandre Stevenson dropped, Jonathan Taylor dropped, and it just sort of naturally pushed Dereck Henry into a spot where almost everyone has him in that same spot. Right. My thing is, you know in drafts, I was just much more keen and getting these wide receivers early instead of necessarily going after Derrick Henry, and so you know, he was sort of in a void for me, but not like a hardcore you got to avoid him at all cost kind of player, because if you wanted to go with more of like a hero RB approach, totally understand with a guy like Henry. But I had him as a cell in the fifteen Transactions podcast earlier this week because their schedule to start the year is just really really rough. They might only be a favorite in one game across their first like five or six, and that's a little bit frightening given Dereck Henry in the way that he, you know, operates. So I just need to ask you, am I a moron? I am I an idiot for because Dereck Henry's owned me in the past, like he has completely destroyed me in the past. I think there was one season where I was right with him. Every other season I've basically been wrong with him. And I feel like now after having that cell transaction, that's gonna be something that people watch onto. Even though I'm not really saying you gotta sell him, I'm saying that I could see his value dropping from where we are right now today to where we might be week five, week six.

00:36:12
Speaker 2: You're just playing a percentages man. He is at that rb Age cliff. He's at the cliff that we see again a shout out to a Tage set doing awesome stuff over at Summer Sports, a new company that Eric Eager is heading up and other great guys. But one thing Tage has found that again, you're rushing just expected yards like per carry over expectation, rushing yards per carry over expectation. That's what I was looking for when you look at running backs past fifteen hundred career professional carries. Lord knows if we started including Henry's you know, high school and college touches in there, but just professionally, man, it really is a steep decline as much as maybe we see an exception like an Adrian Peterson. And to be fair to this point, Derrick Henry, no, I just feel like you're playing the odds man. I don't blame me for doing that, and specifically with Henry, like we have seen that rushing expectation really fall off us what you know, as someone that doesn't necessarily we talked about, you know, trying to cover our bases maybe with not being able to cover each and every intricacy of the game. Like, yeah, I do rely generally, just directionally, I should say, on PFF offensive line ranks because you know, yeah, I'm not grading every single right guard and left tackles, you know, ability, I'll give them some credit for that. And it's the PFF's raigning thirty second ranked offensive line. I believe they're thirty second again going to this year. And like the major reason why Henry was able to keep on keeping on last year. The rushing yards were great, but in full PPR man like we saw Damal Williams score seventeen touchdowns and still be like a low end RB two per game. That's just life in full PPR scoring. And to see Derek Henry like really smash his career high marks. I mean three hundred and ninety eight receiving yards two hundred and six was his previous career high, and then the receptions thirty three versus nineteen. I think tas Jay Spears is going to come in and take a lot of that pass down work. That again, really I think was the difference between Henry being this RB one just bona fide dog last year and being they someone more like Dalvin Cook, not the worst running back in the world last year, but not someone that fantasy managers were thrilled to have on the squad by the end of season. So I'm with you. I was drafting Henry at that one point in the offseason when we didn't have the Breeze Hall issues quite yet, we didn't have Rimandre Stevenson, we didn't have to hold outs going on, so you could legit get like Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry at the round two, round three, turn round three, Derrick Henry I was signing up for but otherwise you know, I was missing it. But I will say JJ like this says the chance to go so incredibly wrong because they get the Texans in week fifteen and week seventeen, so you know, if he's throw on the field at that point, it's gonna be problematic. But yeah, again just you know, trying to go back to telling you guys that I do, you know, kind of put my money in my draft from my mouth is like number one HIGHS drafted running back for me this year is Jayalen warn Number two is tas Jay spears Man. So even the whole uh what surprised me too was like the Hassan Haskins news coming down, him having that really messy charge that end up landing him on the Commissioner's exemplest and now all so being injured like that happened in Tashay's ADP like it took him to late August. We're not to even start moving. So Taj spears Man, someone's gonna benefit from Henry being out. It's gonna be the guy with no ACLS.

00:39:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, exactly. Look, we've seen some we've seen some successes with with no ACL players like Hines Ward. He doesn't have any ACLS. He had a near Hall of Fame career. But yeah, and not only that, but Tajy Spears. I was a little bit iffy on him as a prospect, not because the explosiveness wasn't there's pretty obvious, but you know, the long term, the the the knee issues are at least a question right. And then I also saw him more as like a potential compliment as opposed to this full blown workhorse. But what we saw in the preseason, I mean even if he is a compliment, that dude is fast, I mean he is, he is good, and so I do I have bought into you know, Tajy Spears a little bit at more after even seeing that. But you know, I'm obviously with you with Henry. I know that people are listening to this right now and they're just like, he's it's built different though, you know, like it's just that that's just the and I it's a comeback that you can't even deny and say that it's wrong, right, Like the dude is built different, and so it's frightening to say that I'm underweight. You know, I still drafted him a little bit, but I'm underweight on Derrick Henry and then I had that transaction. It's frightening. I get it, But I think logically there's at least logic there, even though Derrick Henry has broken logic throughout his career.

00:40:25
Speaker 2: It's a joke where like, you know, if we're kind of taken a page like the space Jam playbook. You know, Aliens invade and we got to play like one football game to decide the fate of the human race, and like, oh, can we pick Derrick Henry. No, because he's coming off the spaceship with the Aliens. So yes, again, like it's terrifying. And I said before, like Adrian Peterson was an exception, it would make sense if Derrick Henry is an exception too. But again, when you add the context of the old line and the scoring outside of the offense and the Day two running back edition, Yeah, too much for me to again fire him up with regularity in the first or second round.

00:40:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, And he hasn't. He hasn't maintained his insane rushing ife it's not like that's been you know, last couple of years has not been the same Derrick Henry that we saw when he was like in MVP talks and stuff a few years ago. So you know, that's another thing to keep in mind. One player, one of the most polarizing in fantasy this season, who again, I think a lot of fantasy analysts are fading more so than targeting and saying that they're targeting. There's way more fantasy analysts saying that they're fading, and that's Alexander Madison. Do you see him as a fade or a target? And if you see him as a fade, do you think that there's a chance because this has sort of been like in my brain for a little while, do you think there's a chance that fantasy analysts are kind of taking a stand and when they take a stand, they want to go a little bit hard with that stance, you know, with a Madison. And so they're saying, I don't like Madison this year, which is fine. I totally understand that I don't like Madison this year. He's my RB thirty six, right or something like that. Like, do you think that people are going maybe a little bit too far with that.

00:41:59
Speaker 2: I think that it's definitely too far, and it's just going too far because like, and this is kind of a problem with rankings just to begin with, Like even if all right, like beginning of the offseason, I truly believe Darren Waller tight end three behind only Kelsey Andrews. I'm not trying to hurt myself pat my own back, but that's just what I believe in, you know, May and June. Why would I rank him as a tight end three when ADP and the whole public treating him as a tight end seven, tight end eight, and I can just get him at that price. Like that's why I like ADP matters with this. It's not that it needs to be you know, you need to be a slave to ADP or anything like that, but just being able to get the guy you want at cheaper price than you would otherwise, that's all we're trying to do there. So with Madison, like, yeah, RB thirty six is absurd because if you could get multiple rounds of value on the guy going as an RB twenty, why would you not take that you know, just discount there, but just in terms of like, you know, his expectations for this year. The one thing that got missed I think in the whole kind of analysis. First of all, we were using you know, all those games and it always kills me JJ because they always say the last you know, five games that he got to play, and they leave out the spots star where he was the RB forty seven because it doesn't fit the narrative. Yeah, you know, he got the six spots starts over the years. And I will say in that one dud, it was because a mere abdula used to be a bit of a thorn in his side, stealing some of that pass down work. Maybe just maybe ty Chandler could be that this year. But the bigger issue that really impacted Dalvin last year, it wasn't Dalvin's you know, his success Traders EPA per rush like the whole like Dalvin is just completely washed narrative, Like I don't know, he looked pretty fine and taking that screen sixty yards to the house against the Colts, like he had several pretty awesome plays last year, and I didn't quite see what everyone else was saying there. The big issue was Kevin O'Connell coming over from a Sean McVay offense that really doesn't keep the running backs involved in the passing game. And we saw that play out immediately. Last year rams were thirty second and targets for running backs and the Vikings were twenty seven. So I get it. You got Justin Jefferson, you got Cooper Cupp. Throw those guys the ball. Now we had Jordan Addison, t J. Hawkinson, highest paid tight end NFL history. Crazy to say that out loud, but with Madison, man, I just don't think he is going to be this future part of the offense. So could he finish off as like a borderline of RB one and beat his ADP. Yeah, but I wasn't looking at him, you know, in round five, round six. It's someone that I'm gonna come back to in December and January saying, like my god, how did I miss out on this league winning players? So for me and that range of the draft kept pounding wide receivers. I had Madison ranked ahead of guys like Cam Akers and Miles Sanders in that range, but I thought the general answer to which RB had take out of that range was just no, based on the rest of the roster construction going on right there. So again, similar Nagy. Could Madison get there from just being the lead back and maybe a pretty damn good scoring offense, Like, yeah, but we can say that about so many running backs. We could say that about the RB three is going you know, five, four or five rounds after him. So again, just my general roster construction, I tried to get one, maybe two rbs in the first three rounds and at that point, man, I was waiting for the Brian Robinsons, the Samaji Peterans, the Antonio Gibsons of the world, because I just didn't think that Madison tier really deserved to be going that much far ahead of him.

00:44:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, you're describing the running back dead zone right in essence, You're you're describing this idea that these players are not that much different in the RB two range versus the RB three range and sometimes even the RB four range. And from a ceiling perspective, yeah, there are outs, but there are outs for a lot of guys. You mentioned the Washington backfielding. The Washington backfield is really really interesting because not only can they be you know, values just on their own standalone, but they have that contingent upside if the other gets hurt, then Brian, you know, Antonio Gibson gets hurt, Brian Robinson might see more receiving work than we're expecting. Or if Brian Robinson gets hurt, Antonio Gibson now sees more early down work slash, maybe some more goal line work. You know, there's there are outs for these players in these situations, in these muddy backfields. And that's why, you know, that's why I always preach to target these ambiguous backfields, because you know, the projection might not look amazing or as good as what an Alexander Madison projection looks, but the Alexander Madison projection is under the assumption that no one else in that backfield is really touching the ball or getting out a big, big workload. And then you know, there's obviously the potential for Madison to just be bad and then to move on to ty Chandler give him more work. They got Miles Gaskin, maybe they give Miles Gaskin some work. So yeah, I mean, the president is certainly not there for Madison. You know, if anyone wants to hear the pro argument for Madison, Sigmund Bloom had a really good argument on the perspective show, the first one that I did, where you know, he basically said, you know, all of the historical comps because some of the historical comps that I came up with that I you know, researched that of these veteran running backs who didn't do that much during the first four or five years of their career and then they step into this role and they all of a sudden are supposed to to get a lot of work. Those guys don't really exist in terms of them thriving, right. It's like Toby Gerhardt and you know Mike Davis from from last year. It's just a lot of a lot of that going on within these backfields and so or I guess it might have been a couple years ago with Mike Davis, but regardless, you know, a lot of that going on with these running backs. And the one thing that Loom said that I do think is pretty interesting is that if you look at the way that teams are spending at the running back position, it has shifted. Oh you know, if you're comparing this versus twenty ten, and because of the way they're paying running backs now, you know, maybe that's part of the reason why those guys weren't necessarily you know, doing much or thriving or what have you. Is because the investment is just different in the way that they're you know, relying on these backs, and now they're saying, oh, we don't need to spend on running back. We're just gonna get an Alexander Madison type for a few million dollars or whatever he's getting paid, and then all of a sudden he is actually the featured back. So there's sort of the front office argument in the way that some of those historical comps might not matter, I still think that they matter to some degree. I think there's a reason why, you know, Tony Pollard Alexander Madison, if you want to make that comp Pollard was able to dig into one of the better running backs in football and Ezekiel Elliott you know, throughout his early early in his career, whereas Madison wasn't able to do that with the Dalvin Cook you know, to the same degree, right, and so well.

00:47:59
Speaker 2: And it's also just real quick like Khalil Herbert's another guy where even though he wasn't a starter, like he had really good underlying efficiency numbers, as did Pollard, not Madison. Those games everyone references man like, I got them up right here, twenty four touches, thirty two touches, thirty two touches, twenty five touches, and sixteen touches. I don't see Madison flirting with twenty five touches a week in this offense. That's probably gonna have to keep you know, throwing the football to try to keep up with a likely porus defense. Again, we'll see what happens there. But yeah, I mean, unless you're playing like a point per hurdle leagues, man, I just don't think Madison's giving you, like, exactly what you need in that efficiency basis so middling talent and I get it. We can talk about talent, not overly mattering at running backs. So again, like all these any top fifty, top seventy five player like has a path to success. That's why they're ranked where they are in ADP and all of our rankings as well. But to me, man like, if you're not checking four of the five boxes out there, which I'm not sure Madison is, that's why you know he's getting more of the fade for me. But hey, Sigmund obviously legend in our industry. Very smart guy. Justin Boon's another guy that I went on his with the score, and you know, he's saying Madison's his like breakout player and he's listing a lot of good reasons. That was kind of making me scared of being underweighted on him. So definitely one of those, you know, maybe defining players. But again, I just don't know that his best case upside is better than a borderline RB one. We'll see if I'm wrong.

00:49:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, you know I see with Madison at just to kind of close this out and close out the Madison because I feel like I bring him up on every podcast. I just think he's so interesting because everyone's going to have sort of like a different perspective on him and stuff. But you know the thing with Madison, like I have him ranked within the position, not far off from where others might have him ranked within the position. So I'm sort of at market within the running back position itself. But as you noted, I've been drafting the same way as you. In that range of the draft, there are so many good wide receivers, so many good wide receivers that could break out. You know, you're getting like a Johan Dotson type or a George Pickens type, or a Deontay wherever he ends up, you know, because these guys are arranging with where they where they get drafted, whether you're looking at more of a homely draft or best ball draft, what have you. Regardless, there's just a lot of good wide receivers that are being drafted there. That's my issue, almost more than anything else, is that, you know, Madison probably mostly just an average running back that could get some volume, might be okay, But I'm just more concerned about the wide receivers I'm missing out on there because I think wide receiver just matters a lot more than people realize in fantasy football. Let's move to another backfield, one that I think is also probably you know, at least with Madison, we have a feel for how much volume he might get week one. This backfield, I have no freaking idea how it's gonna unfold. And that's the Philadelphia Eagles backfield. You got DeAndre Swift, you got Rashad Penny, you got Kenneth Gainwell getting a lot of hype over the last month. How are you reading this backfield? Number one? Have you been targeting anyone in this backfield, and then number two, how are you just reading this and how do you think it's gonna be split game?

00:50:52
Speaker 2: Well, is my six highest drafted running back. He's always been the guy, and it definitely slowed down a little bit as he got pushed up like around you know, eleven or two there by the end of it. But being able to get him in those final free rounds of drafts was a treat there in June and July, all these Jinguly drafts. You know, I love bringing up the good things that happen, not the Tim Patrick twenty percent exposure I have, you know, just wasting away now every time I look at it. But to me, just again the thing that got me and it's not necessarily looking that way, but we're not getting that many views. Like I always thought Rashaw Penny would just be the best one for one replacement for Miles Sanders, because if Swift isn't getting that early down work, man, like, what are we doing? And just the assumption everyone's saying, oh, they're in the Eagles offense, Like look, how grave an offense this is for running backs? Like not really, man, They're incredible in real life obviously, but as we know fancy football is different than real life. They're in twenty seventh in PPR points per game expected for their running backs last year. We see us in Buffalo, we see us in Baltimore, We've seen in Seattle to burying degrees. When you got these dual threat quarterbacks, I know you did a really good study on this in the summer, Like guess what the quarterbacks they scramble said, check down and then once again side the five yard line, especially with Jalen Hurts literally leading the NFL and rushing touchdowns if you include playoffs over the past two years, like Detroit is a more fantasy friendly RB offense than Philly because Jared Goff is checking the ball down at the first sign of pressure, and no, he's not taken off inside the five yard line like the Jalen Hurts. So again, I know it's kind of weird in our heads to think about a team like the Eagles being like a bottom ten offense in terms of their RB usage, but that's what we see, man. And then when you add actually again just the not knowing who's exactly what we having the roles and having three parties involved, there's not quite as many outside I think people think with these guys. So, yes, DeAndre Swift, I've seen the underlying usage and the mistackles, force numbers and all that. But I will say too, like he did get to face you know, boxes that didn't have eight plus defenders in him at the highest rate of like any qualified running back last year. And as much as I like to think that, like you and me JJ know a decent amount about this game, we can't all be in love with Lions offense and what they're doing over there and then out the other side of our mouth be like, yeah, but they were just wrong on DeAndre Swift and all this. So like, where's the what they trade like a twenty twenty five like fourth or fifth round pig back?

00:53:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, not a lodd Yeah, it wasn't a lot.

00:53:14
Speaker 2: So as much as we can talk about Rashad pennies like not getting you know, six hundred K guaranteed or something like Kem Gamewell played ahead of Miles Sanders in the fucking Super Bowl, man, So yeah, maybe that matters a little bit more than the twenty twenty five fifth round pick the next year and nine didn't even know he has. So I have drafted some of Swift, especially more in August when he kind of got down to that RB three range. But man, when he was just getting that bona fide like top twenty treatment early on, would not touch that with the ten foot pools. So I'm a waiting c mode. You know, I'm advising anyone that does have you know, a Swift or a game over or a Penny if it's that all close start sick question given the other guy for now, because again, the most likely answer might just be Alan Hurts and these wide receivers in Dallas. Godd because if we're splitting this baby up three god forbid even four ways, you know, maybe us to Giants, We'll get Boston Scott more involved there, if that's what we're doing here. Again, already less meat on the overall backfield bone that I think people give it credit for. Really really need this to be condensed to one, maybe two running backs with a dual threat quarterback that hurts.

00:54:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's my take too. I've had the most exposure to kind of gain, well, I've had some randomly to Penny, randomly to Swift. I've been on record saying that I liked pennies eight. This is back in early August that I liked Pennies ADP more than Swift's ADP. But as I started drafting, I noticed that there were some drafts, like individual drafts, where Swift would drop like Swift would fall enough where I'm like, sure, and why not, I'll take this chance and see what happens. But I do think you nailed it with the storyline that's sort of like undocumented and just not talked about enough. With DeAndre Swift is no one's asking the question why did the Lions replace DeAndre Swift with a better version of DeAndre Swift? Why? You know, why did they give them up for peanuts and go out and get Jamior Gibbs with the first round, you know, twelfth overall pick. I think you at least have to have to ask that question too. It's no different than when a team gets rid of a really good player, like when the Lions got rid of Kenny Galladay and everyone's like, well, Kenny Galladay is such a good expert. Well maybe they were, maybe maybe they knew what they were doing right there?

00:55:11
Speaker 2: You know, are we getting some Dalton Schultz slander? Jj I here for if we are six million dollars and the Cowboys said no, but I was going to lead the Texas and targets. Miss me with that.

00:55:21
Speaker 1: All right, speaking of the Cowboys, how do you like that transition?

00:55:25
Speaker 2: Hey, there you go. That's what they pay the big boy.

00:55:26
Speaker 1: That's why they pay me the big bucks. So the Cowboys have Brandon Cooks. I saw that Brandon Cooks was more of an avoid for you than a target. I don't want to strictly say I never want to want to corner analysts and say that you've avoided this guy no matter what, because I don't think that's fair. So I know that he's more of an avoid for you than a target. And the reason I want to bring this up is because about a month ago I had Rich Reebar on the show, and Reeves said, you know the opposite, that he was someone who he thought was a really safe bet, at least you know, in those middle rounds, given that he's performed well when he's had good quarterback play and such. So I like that there's different persons here. I'm not throwing you in this pit against Reebs to battle it out. That's not what this is about at all. I just want differing perspectives on this stuff. Hence the name of this show, right, So talk to me about Brandon Cooks. Why is he more of an avoid for you?

00:56:15
Speaker 2: Love my guy Reeves got to get back together in these Ohio poker streets that we always got going on. But with Cooks, man, like, I just see a guy that, yeah, he's had a fantastic ten year career and he's still twenty nine or whatever, but there are a lot of miles on that dometer, and he gets such a pass for not being good last year because of the bad quarterback situation, even though he was a lot better the year before and the very same quarterback situation. So yes was coming back from an injury, but we did even when he was healthy. See Nico really start eating into things there and just coming into this offense, man, Like, I don't think it's a given that he's gonna out target Michael Gallup. I understand, like Cooks has been the far superior wide receiver over the last ten years, but playing for twenty twenty three, Man, we have a wide receiver that's going to be thirty before too long in a run first offense that hey, last year still only twenty fifth pass right over expected. Maybe McCarthy's you know, march comments about one to run the Dan ballmore come true. Maybe they don't. But the big thing here is as well, ever since Michael Parsons really came into the fold and the Cowboys started getting just this dominant defense, Like that's really why Dak Prescott hasn't been the fancy world beater. It's not twenty twenty or even twenty twenty one or no, I'm sorry, twenty nineteen or twenty twenty anymore. With the Cowboys just got to keep their foot on the gas for sixty minutes, we're seeing a lot more of an effort to run the football. So with Cooks, man, like, I just feel like speed's kind of the first thing to go sometimes with these receivers, not everyone could be d Jacks and still you know, toasting these guys till they're thirty five. And I just think, you know, with Cooks going in that wide receiver four range, I was just more willing to take some of the more youthful upset options like Elijah Moore, like Quinton Johnston, like you know who else was going there? Just yeah, So sometimes if I already had, you know, if I was trying to build a dak stack or trying to do the week seventeen bullshit. So happy we don't have to talk about that anymore, but trying to do that stuff like, Okay, I throw Cooks on there. I do think he deserved to be in that tier of guys, but just wasn't someone I wanted to prioritize. I thought the gap between him and Michael Gallup was a bit unwarranted. So yeah, it is one of these situations where, you know, when he scores a sixty year touchdown Sunday night, I'm gonna be definitely questioning the process a little bit more there. But it's an offense that I just don't think is going to be in a ton of shootouts. He is clearly the number two option, and again, wouldn't be surprised if he's even more of a two way and Gallop being the two b. Yeah.

00:58:29
Speaker 1: You know, one of the things that I will throw out there with Cooks, I've been maybe a little bit higher, but not much, you know, versus the market. But one of the things that I will say that's negative about him is that if you look at historical ADP trends, older wide receivers in the middle rounds. So I'm looking at at round six to round nine middle round wide receivers who are older, who are past you know, the players who really exceed ADP expectation or year one in year two guys, right, so rookies and second year guys, and then year five and year six guys, which a lot of people have questioned, like why is that the case. I think a lot of it is they switch teams because their rookie contracts up, or you know, it could just be the fact that they're in their fifth and sixth year and they're sort of like unsexy names like Christian Kirk last year, even Christian Kirk this year, where there are just these unsexy names that you know could still play well. It's just that people are sick of drafting them. They're just they're just over them. Right, And so you're five and your six guys do really, really well, and then as you get to these older players, you know, eventually you have and Mike Evans, you can almost throw this in this bucket too to some degree, but you have to ask yourself, why is this player who is a veteran in the league, who has a history of performing well, why is the market doing this with this play? Michael Thomas another example, why is the market doing this with this player? And it could be because the player is just not going to be some league winning guy. And I don't I don't think we're gonna look back on the season and say that Brandon Cooks is a league winner. And so at the end of the day, it's probably a safe enough bet to say. You know, the question I always ask is is this guy gonna burn me if I pass him? I don't think Brandon Cooks is gonna burn you. You know, I don't know if he's gonna be He's.

01:00:07
Speaker 2: Great for the Cowboys real life offense, like especially you watch that forty nine Ers game really the last two years, like they're they never replaced Cooper obviously very we can get into that another day. But like even past Cooper though who was can go deep. Ceedee Lamb can go deep. But like they try to having Devin Smith a few years ago, like they haven't really had that field stretching wide receiver on the outside that can at a minimum get that safety, you know, take a second glance over before just completely you know, putting their attention on Ceedee Lamb so really good real life upgrade. And we've seen Brandon Cooks do that throughout his career. But you know, some of these field stretcher options, like Cook's gonna be that different than our guy DPJ going a bit later, I don't know we'll find out. So again, great real life option, but maybe it's the pessimism as the I am a Cowboys fan, sadly now, just before you guys freak out on me like I was. I started watching football in two thousand and two thousand and one, so I've seen three freaking playoff wins, which freaking But with the Cowboys, their biggest offseason like transactions have been adding a near thirty year old wide receiver a thirty two year old cornerback. They didn't give up very much for him. In the past, I would have expected those to be huge contracts, you know, throwing away day one, day two picks, and then it's like the head coach doing the token lash resort. My butt's on the hot seats, so I'm gonna take over play calling, Like those are three decent enough red flags. Again caveats, they didn't spend that much on Cooks or Gilmore, but I do wonder man if, just like you know, his team that's won twelve twelve games and back to back years, I do wonder if the Cowboys being a little bit overhyped because again the holes they're trying to fill. I didn't think the play calling hole even existed to be fair. And then also with Cooks and Gilmore, maybe just maybe would have been a lot cooler to have them on the squad in twenty nineteen.

01:01:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, Cooks has been someone that I've targeted if I went running back heavy for whatever reason, you know, because I had I tried to have different structures and stuff to my lineups, or if I'm in a deeper league where with a lot of a lot of starting lineup spots, where you know, I know that I'm gonna just need some production, it's a lot easier to get a guy like cook So I think is going to give you some production. But again, I think I think we're both agreeing at least that he's probably not going to be some league winning player. But the last question I want to ask you is about league winning players. Give me one guy, one player you think could win people leagues this year.

01:02:21
Speaker 2: I've got someone we haven't talked about, because I do think, you know, someone like a Taj Spears is coming on late once Henry falls off. Like again, if you're fading Henry, you should be kind of high on the other scenario of Henry Buss that would be Taj Spears. So I am gonna what if what if JJ, what if the twenty twenty three version of twenty twenty two Jamal Williams is still Jamal Williams over there in New Orleans, especially early on, man, like it is setting up so well for him to explode out of the gate. Kamara suspension. Obviously, we got Kendre Miller dealing with a hamstring injury after already having you know, a banded up training camp. Like I feel like we got the Kareem Hunt report and we almost just like accepted that, and then we haven't, like verd Our brains back to realizing Kareem Hunt is not on this roster, and my god, Like you know, I've been blabbering about the Saints DST for the last month, like their schedule to start the year, these first like eight to nine games. I think I saw Adam Levitan actually shout out like just the potential for the Saints to really have a nice little stretch here of undefeated football just based on the kind of QBS they're gonna be playing. So a lot of positive game script and offense led by Derek Carr, who no not expecting him to, you know, be a Matt Stafford type jrump and take him to the super Bowl or anything. But we've seen Carr with weapons around him, which they do have lead top ten offenses before. And Jamal Williams can just be that again RB four who has double digit rushing touchdown upside on his own and then Boom Bell Coal like every down workhorse potential if the running backs leave. I think that's his out there, because again I dropped a ton of them last year under the assumption he could be maybe the twenty twenty two version of twenty twenty one James Connor that didn't really happen, like Swift got hurt and they kept using Craig Reynolds and Justin Jackson was the other guy on passdowns. But Jamal scored so many touchdowns it didn't matter. If you do go back to his days in Green Bay, like when Aaron Jones did miss a couple of games over the years. Jamal got that eighty ninety percent snap ray and really did good things with it. So got like eight million guaranteed in the running back market where nobody can get Anything's a fun guy to root for, you know, to Twirk God, I do think, you know, in that RB four range, like, really, you're getting past the Washington Backs, You're getting past the Smagi p Runds of the world. Jamal Williams just stood out to me, like, really, amongst these other handcuffs is having the best chance of standalone value and potential boom value down the road.

01:04:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I mean you mentioned it too with Kendre Miller's injury. You know, I think that there's a lot to like, especially if you wan with a zero RB build, you know, with Jamal Williams. Yeah, man, it was great to talk to you. Why don't you let everyone know where they can find you in your amazing meme mobility over on Twitter.

01:04:50
Speaker 2: Great talking to you, JJ, appreciate it, man, one of, if not deepest, in the industry, dude, So truly over here. But yeah, man, and I heard it's on Twitter X whatever the hell you want to call it. Trying to you know, we have a little bit of fun while we just grind fantasy football all the time. Like, remember, we are just floating on a rock that floats around a ball of fire. At the end of the day, we don't need to be so serious about everything. But yeah, fantasylife dot com, we got a newsletter, we got rankings, we got content, we got podcasts, and all of it is absolutely free. So looking out for you guys, myself, Joy McFarlane, Kendel, Valenzuela, Holt squad over there, love each and all of them. And yeah, man, end of the day, Week one is here, JJ, let's go no longer are we doing takes based on stuff that happened seven months ago? Actual live football. Man, I cannot wait to watch it.

01:05:33
Speaker 1: I can't wait either. And by the way, Fantasy Life shout out to you guys. The tools and such and the content that you guys are pushing out there super super awesome and it's all free, So you guys should check it out over on fantasylife dot com. You can find my stuff over on Lateround dot com. I'm on Twitter, on x whatever you wanna call it. I say that on every show at this point, at LATEROUNDQB, make sure you're following the Late Round Fantasy Football Instagram at Late Round FF otherwise, thanks for tuning into printed at the trick