Max Kepler's Health, Jeff Hoffman's Departure

00:00:03
Speaker 1: There's Jedi Warris. Welcome to The Philly Show.

00:00:08
Speaker 2: Good morning everybody.

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Speaker 3: How are you, Ruben Tomorrow, Junior, Jim Salisbury, Todd so lucky.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the followed Territory Network.

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Speaker 3: It's The Philly Show. January thirteenth, twenty twenty five. Eagles victory Monday. We figured, we figure we got to mention the Eagles because that's all people are gonna be talking about until they and you know, all the way up to the Super Bowl run if they get that far, So we have to mention that. For me, it was a little more painful because I'm a good Packers fan. Sorry, that's all right, that's yeah.

00:00:40
Speaker 1: I was in the house.

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Speaker 2: I was in a house full of Eagles fans yesterday.

00:00:44
Speaker 3: My five year old daughter Margo is open in my face yelling boot Packers go Eagles.

00:00:49
Speaker 1: So I felt at home.

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Speaker 2: But big win for the Eagles.

00:00:57
Speaker 3: You know, they got to tighten it up on offense, I think, But you know, got got the first one out of the way.

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Speaker 4: Jalen maybe knock knock some rust off.

00:01:04
Speaker 2: There they go. They're on their way. They're on the way to the super Bowl.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that was the the Jay Giles band Ball, the j Giles band Love Against Hurts Hurts.

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Speaker 1: That right, I love it.

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Speaker 2: I remember that great.

00:01:23
Speaker 6: Boston band or was it Boston band? I didn't know they were from Boston.

00:01:27
Speaker 1: Jay Giles, Oh yeah, from Boston.

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Speaker 6: Love Her was a big Boston band by the way back in the day, right around that same time. Maybe a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't think the pack were very good, Todd.

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Speaker 4: No, I am.

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Speaker 3: And you know what, Yeah, I was thinking about this last night. Uh, the Packers are really the only team I root for. Like, I'm a real die hard Packers fan, and it allows me to remember what fans feel, you know, covering the Phillies every day, I kind of you know, I'm I'm inside.

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Speaker 4: I try to like take a step back.

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Speaker 3: And provide fans, you know, uh, some perspective on what things, why things are happening, why things aren't happening, why you should panic, why you shouldn't panic.

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Speaker 2: And as a Packers fan, I'm just like, Jordan Love ain't the guy, man, Jordan Love is not the guy. They are not going to win a super Bowl this guy.

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Speaker 3: And I'm going so I really want to read what all the Packers writers and people have to say today about that.

00:02:19
Speaker 2: Because I am really down on my squad. I'm really down on my squad right now.

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Speaker 3: And so you know when over the past couple of years, you know, people down in Jalen Hurts and then the Eagles and earlier this season, Nick Sirianni, I'm.

00:02:31
Speaker 2: Going, how you want to fire this guy?

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Speaker 6: Now?

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Speaker 3: I kind of go, ah, yes, I remember the frustration, the over the top frustration of being a fan of a team.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I continue to marvel just to staying on the Eagle subject. Sure, continue to marvel. How amazingly different the defense looks with Vic Fangio at the Helm. It is amazing. It's one of the most amazing turnarounds I think in sports. Obviously there's some maturity with some of the players, and you know Howie Roseman deserves a ton of credit about, you know, bringing in some of these folks, But what Vic Fangio has done based on what they were looking like last year to where they are this year on the defense, it's just insane. It's hard for me to even mat It's like literally taking it's almost like taking a bullpen or a rotation and flipping it completely and making it like go from the worst to the best. That's a hard thing to do and really impressive what's going on there.

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Speaker 3: If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, We'll have to have Phillies fan Vic Fangio on the show.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's sometime in February, right.

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Speaker 6: No doubt. Man, he's old school and I love what he brings to the table. Obviously, Hurts did not look sharp, and I'm not sure what the scheme was with Kellen Moore, and I've been pretty impressed with him for most of the year, but it looked like a different offense should have been better, and it was not very sharp for me.

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Speaker 1: So you're right.

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Speaker 5: It is sometimes really nice, especially when you're in the line of work we've been in.

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Speaker 1: For a long time.

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Speaker 5: Uh, it's just nice to be a fan and not have to worry about, Oh my god, I got to write a good lead here, I gotta make deadline. I mean, we always talk about it, like you'll bump into a Phillies fan or a friend of yours is a Phillies fan, and you know, the Phillies will rally for a dramatic come back in the bottom of the nine for four runs to win, and you know everybody's buzzing about what a great game it was. But you know, you have just ripped out your insides because you have to turn around your story and in six minutes, you know what I mean. It's agony sometimes, but it's just nice. Not no keyboard, you know, maybe a big play to wings and watch the watch the game.

00:04:47
Speaker 1: I love the NFL playoffs for that reason.

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Speaker 6: Well that's the interesting part about that is I typically do too, But then when I go to the tailgates and stuff, I get people pounding what's going on with the Billies? How can they haven't done anything? Why? I'm like, can I watch?

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Speaker 7: It's enjoyed this, have a beer and smoke a cigar and hang out, and the people want to like start bashing the Phillies for you know, I'm like, dude, there's still one of the top five teams in baseball, maybe the right if you look at you know, if you just look at.

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Speaker 6: The numbers and you look at what they've done. I know that's a disappointment because of the playoffs and all that the last few years, but it's still one of the best teams in baseball and maybe the best rotation in all of baseball. Like when are they going to do something, said do something that's a huge move. And and I think that you know, people want to see they don't know who Lozardo is. No one, I mean most of the most the basic fan doesn't know that. Doesn't you know, that's that's not Cole Hamil's. You know, it's not a left hander that that that that that shoots out at them. But the reality of it is they have a the best rotation. I think in Baseball Depth one to five. It's hard for me to imagine that there's a better rotation. Maybe Arizona they got cortman Burns pretty good if they stay healthy. Seattle's Seattle's excellent, and obviously at La is you know, is healthy. That's a really really good one. But that's a big question on the health. And they have six guys, six or seven guys that can roll out there. But you know, everybody's well, I'm worried about the Mets. Well, they had one player, they got Swon Soto, they did get Sean Maniya back. But dude, you know, if you're going to start with, you know, comparing teams player for player, I like the Phillies.

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Speaker 5: Have you seen these Like I'm already starting to see people make picks, you know, for the division, and almost everyone I've seen has the Phillies number one. And Bryce Harper seems quite confident. He's now a badista.

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Speaker 6: Yeah. And he's a breadmaker. He makes a fine he makes a fine love of bread. I understand that is a nice banana bread.

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Speaker 1: Oh I saw the coffee he was making.

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Speaker 6: Oh no, he's he's the standason of the kitchen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely, Well.

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Speaker 1: He'll impress me if you can make a meat loaf.

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Speaker 6: I had an unbelievable meat loaf the other day at your place. Jimmy over at the uh the seniors what was it called the hot Stove Seniors hot stove in.

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Speaker 5: Phoenixville, Phoenixville Senior Center Hot Stove group.

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Speaker 1: He was, he was dazzling, fantastic.

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Speaker 6: It was fun to speak to the folks. Speaking of folks, let's talk a little bit about the La fires Man and how much you know we're we gotta send some love out there. Talk talk to a lot of guys. Actually texting with a bunch of guys. Greg Dobbs texted with Jimmy Rollins. They they're safe. I know that Greg dogs had to evacuate sent me a bunch of scary, scary, awful pictures. Uh, there's so many people. I think what you were talking about, Chase Utley todd that he lives right next to Rob mclhaney, right.

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Speaker 3: I know, Rob tweeted out that he had to have acuate, so hopefully. I don't know what that means about homes and whatnot, but just all I mean, the images obviously are terrible.

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Speaker 6: It's just amazing. I mean it looks like apocalyptic in a lot of ways. I mean, it's really awful. And our prayers to all of them and anyway people can support them, man, it'd be great. But I know, I know it's an awful, awful thing, and hopefully they can contain it soon. It's terrible.

00:08:27
Speaker 2: We'll be right back.

00:08:28
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00:09:31
Speaker 3: Rubin you, you mentioned how people asking about what the Phillies are doing this offseason. One guy they got was Max Kepler. He's going to be the left fielder. Max hopped on a zoom on Thursday and chatted with reporters for about ten to fifteen minutes. We all either listen to the call or were on the call. Did anything jump out to you, guys, I mean, for me, He seemed like somebody who really wanted to stress that I am healthy, and when I'm healthy, I think I.

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Speaker 2: Can be very very good. And that's of course what the.

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Speaker 3: Phillies are hoping that he is healthy and that he is very very good because it's just a one year deal. But they don't have a lot of outfield depth, and if he performs like he performed last year, that's going to be a problem spot, you know, because they don't really have anybody that can step in and and and help him out.

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Speaker 9: Really, I enjoyed the call listening to him, and what kind of struck me about it was how how analytics is in everything, and it's it's very valuable.

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Speaker 5: I know analytics takes it on the chin, but there's so much you can gain from analytics.

00:10:45
Speaker 1: And you know, you.

00:10:46
Speaker 5: Watch a picture's bullpen and all of a sudden, some of his spin and some of his vela was down. Well maybe that's an indicator of an injury, right, very very valuable, or an indicator of decline in some way.

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Speaker 1: Kepler talking about how his.

00:11:02
Speaker 5: Exit velocities last year were coming down and they were able to kind of dig into that data and and and the reasons that he was losing some exit velocity off the bat, and it was determined that he had a core injury that was addressed, uh you know, abdominal cores that was addressed with surgery. So maybe a healthy player is a better healthy player.

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Speaker 1: Is a better player.

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Speaker 5: So maybe you know, the surgery and getting that core injury repair will unlock something in him, you know, because I certainly think they're going to need his bat at that bottom third of the order that's attractive, get some thunder down below, if indeed he's going to provide thunder.

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Speaker 1: So big question is what are they going to get out of a healthy.

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Speaker 5: Mexicup or maybe that you know, enhances his performance and to how's he going to do with the adjustment to left field because he's really only been a right fielder, so right.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the most important thing for me obviously as his health. And you know, I go back and start thinking about guys like Raoul of Banyez when Raoul was really going well with us when we had him, and I was a little bit longer of tooth, but you know, he had an MVP type season going on in the first part of that once his first season, and then he developed that that core injury and it really affected him for the rest of the year. And I think that more than anything else. You know, when when when older players start to get breakdowns, you know, the question is can they come come back? I mean, he has some unbelievable years. Was it twenty two and twenty three, I think it was or twenty one and twenty two when he was a really good player. I mean you start looking at the break breaking down his numbers and his ops and his overall production, and when he is a healthy player, Man, this guy is a good one. And it seemed like he was, you know, sort of peaking in those years, and then they had he had a very very difficult obviously twenty twenty four. And I will tell you this, if you can't use the middle of your body, if you can't lose your using lower half, you're done as an athlete. I mean you're really done. I mean I used to talk, we used to talk about hands and feet. If you're hands on, your feet aren't well. If your middle body, if your core is not working in baseball, you can literally do nothing. And so so that's an important one. I'm just hopeful that he's able to make the adjustments that he had some fanboy in him though.

00:13:27
Speaker 10: I think when I when he was talking, I mean, it felt like he felt like like, oh my god, I'm gonna be playing with like all of these It was interesting to listen to a guy who's played basically in ten years in the big leagues to listen to him and.

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Speaker 6: Say, hey, I look to see how these guys go about it and how they're you know, how they're you know this is I've seen this you know team from Afar, and I've seen it up close when we played against him, and you know, it's almost like he was impressed by the fact that there's a you know, there's a Harper, and there's a real Muto, and there's a Turner and Schwober and I think those that's sort of he almost looked like kind of a fan, you know, thinking about being able to play with him. He's nervous and excited about it, which is I kind of like the youthful sort of youthful exuberance and hopefully he does learn something from some of those guys and and can fit in nicely.

00:14:17
Speaker 3: He seemed to acknowledge that he is stepping into a situation where there's a real expectation to win. And not to say that you play for the Minnesota Twins you don't expect to win, But I think it's maybe a little bit different where maybe in the back of your mind, as a Twins player, you're going, all right, if we have everybody play really, really well, maybe the front office will make a trade in July. Or maybe if everything breaks right, we can get to the Alcs and when or when the division get to the Alcs and maybe, oh man, if we prayed real hard, we could get to the World Series. Where I think this team goes in going we can win the World Series this year. So everybody needs to step up. And so he seemed to acknowledge that difference in expectation. And then and again, I've never set foot in the Twins clubhouse. I don't know what it was like there, but there are definitely more stars, more expectations. I went to school in Minnesota. Different vibe in Minnesota, much different vibe in Minnesota than there is in Philadelphia.

00:15:15
Speaker 2: Believe it.

00:15:16
Speaker 3: So, Max Kepler comes to Philadelphia trying to fill a hole in left field. I think he recognizes that he needs to step up and deliver and produce not only for himself in getting a new contract, but for Bryce Harper and Trade Turner and Kyle Schwerber and Nick Castiano, Jtrialmota and all those forty five thousand fans that are gonna make the stands every single night watching him play.

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Speaker 5: Agree, he needs to be good. But let's not forget he, in my opinion, is a complimentary player, right He's you know, we talk about it all the time. You need your big boys to be your big boys. And I view him as a complimentary player and potentially a very good one and an important one finishing his importance. But this team is gonna you know, the guys who are gonna drive this team are Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Castiano's real Muto bomb Stot.

00:16:15
Speaker 1: That crew. That's a that's a crew that is more than ready to win.

00:16:21
Speaker 6: So all, I would totally agree with that, Jim. And the other part of that is, you know people were talking about, well they need the players who make contact and not strike out so much. Well, I did look into the numbers a little bit with Max Kappa when he was going to have his best years, and generally overall, uh he strike out he strikes out less than the average, and he also walks more than the average, especially in the years that he had his best years. So he is one of those guys that little makes a little bit more contact. And you know, there was a question about whether he can hit against lefties. He feels confident that he will, and so I agree that he's a complimentary player. But you never know how guys are going to react in a new environment. And with that expectation, you know, we had the Lance Parishes of the the you know, we had the Lance Parishes of the world. We've had, you know, other players who've come in a situation. Of course, the pressure on this guy is not nearly as high to have that kind of impact. He is a complimentary player, and I think he needs to come in feeling that that he's just just do your thing, just just add on. Don't have to be a life saver, because he doesn't, because that's not his job. He's going to hit in a sixth or seventh or eighth hold. And I think that that's I think that's the sort of the mindset that he needs to have. He's just creating some depth for really really solid not life.

00:17:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just I like the expression just add on.

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Speaker 5: It's like like when you're playing in a scramble and you're the worst golfer. I'm not saying he's I'm not diminishing him, but when you're playing golfer in the scramble with a bunch of good guys, if you can make you know, hit a wed shot or make a pot and that gets your team over the top.

00:17:53
Speaker 6: Absolutely and then straight out I like that. I like that Algy Jim bringing out our game.

00:18:00
Speaker 1: This is my year, this is my year.

00:18:02
Speaker 6: This is your year, buddy, You're taking it to the next level.

00:18:05
Speaker 3: It's Kepler talked on Thursday and then Friday night word breaks and this was not a surprise. Jeff Hoffman former Phillies reliever. Former Phillies reliever Jeff Hoffman signs a three year, thirty three million dollar deal with Toronto. They said that he is going to get an opportunity to close. We knew he wasn't going to come back, but uh, you know, Jeff had a real nice Phillies career. Do you have any reaction to the contract that Jeff Hoffman got from Toronto and do you think there's still a chance that you know, maybe the Phillies, one of these other relievers that we've kind of talked about linger out there long enough that they can maybe snatch one up before opening day.

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Speaker 5: You know, I was happy you got a three year deal. That's that's nice, that's a good coin.

00:18:47
Speaker 6: Yeah.

00:18:48
Speaker 5: I think he earned it, did a good job here. Philadelphia should mean a lot to him. It's kind of where his career came together. I think he learned a lot from the Phillies' staff, and he went out and did it himself.

00:18:57
Speaker 1: He deserves most of the credit.

00:19:00
Speaker 5: Not surprised he's moved on, because you know, we've talked about it now throughout the winter that they just don't seem to want to do multi year deals in the bullpen. In fact, I spoke with an agent at the winter meetings said they just want to keep their bullpen guys to one year deals, and that, you know, I'm sure hurt Hoffmann's chances of coming back. I wonder if they might make it run at somebody who lingers a little while longer out there in the bullpen.

00:19:29
Speaker 1: On said one year deal.

00:19:31
Speaker 5: But let me ask you, Tod if if they sign John Doe reliever, let's say for six million dollars where they are on the tax, that's actually a twelve million dollar outlay, right.

00:19:46
Speaker 3: Or that's that's more that would be more than a twelve million dollar outlay. That'd be like, yeah, that'd be again at this point, their text one hundred and ten percent for every dollar spent.

00:19:58
Speaker 2: So uh yeah.

00:20:00
Speaker 3: The other day I crunch the numbers in they're like at three forty five overall, they're they're the projected payroll on fangraphs.

00:20:10
Speaker 2: I think I wrote this down somewhere.

00:20:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, only, Yeah, the projected the projected payroll right now in fangraphs is three hundred and seven point five million, more than six and a half million.

00:20:22
Speaker 2: Dollars over that fourth luxury tax.

00:20:25
Speaker 3: So right now, if that those numbers that projections end up being true, they're going to pay more than forty eight million dollars in tax penalties to push the total payroll commitment to more than three hundred and fifty five and a half million dollars.

00:20:36
Speaker 6: Good.

00:20:37
Speaker 2: So yeah, so yeah, great.

00:20:39
Speaker 5: Point tie a five million dollar reliever, it's probably more like eleven. So I think we have to frame it that way in terms of are they done are they not done? With they take a shot at somebody who's still out there. You know, I don't know what there's more that that meets just the sticker.

00:20:58
Speaker 6: Price, right.

00:21:00
Speaker 3: And also, I think in those conversations, aren't they saying if it's not a Kirby Yates or you know, one of those types of Carlos Sistevez, if he lingers on the market, if it's more of that one year, five million dollar guy. Do you think John Middleton David dem Brows are going, do we really want to drop eleven million dollars on a five million dollar reliever? How about we see what we have and then maybe reload and address the right spots in July. I mean maybe they go that way as well. And I'm sure that's part of the conversation, right.

00:21:31
Speaker 6: No doubt. And if I'm sitting there in the front office and people are still saying things like this, the Phillies are cheap, dude, They're not. Okay, that's a ridiculous amount of money. And as I used to say as a GM, if I can't put together a contending team with this amount of money, then I'm not doing my job well. And they have I mean, listen, they have a really, really good ball club, especially on paper. Do they need to perform, Yes, they do, but they still have a very strong team. They're not too long a too that you need to really worry about that too much. There's maybe a little bit of concern with JT just because he's had some drop off the last couple of years in some areas. But I do think that they have some protection with him with Marshaw because I think they're going to back him off a little bit as far as his playing time is concerned, which may make him a more productive player over one and ten or one hundred and twenty games instead of hundred and thirty. And so, you know, you can't call this team cheap. And I do believe that they're probably gonna hold some powder for you know, for maybe a deadline move or something like that, because we talked about this doing this a little bit last year. But my thing is this, these guys have to get it done. These players, their money was spent already. They spent this money to make this team good for a long time, and this is part of the long time. This is part of that window, and they're hoping that other guys step forward. Once some of these guys drop off for are no longer contracted, and so you can't tell you can't tell me that the Phillies are cheap, are cheap. You can't tell me that they're not committed to winning because they they've made the outlay as far as the money is concerned, and it's up to the players to perform and to make the adjustments that are necessary during the right times and play better during the playoffs when it's necessary for them to take it to the next level. Yeah.

00:23:23
Speaker 3: Again, that's They're projected at the second highest pay roll in baseball in twenty twenty five. Only the Doctors have committed more. So still more money to spend. You never know what the Yankees and the Mets are going to finish up, but you know.

00:23:36
Speaker 6: They spent a lot.

00:23:37
Speaker 2: They spent a lot of money, you.

00:23:38
Speaker 3: Know, Rubin, you mentioned players coming up down the road. We had Jonathan Mayo on the show last Friday from MLB Pipeline. I thought that was a real fun listen. I was listening to the car running around doing errands over the weekend and it was really good. So if you haven't checked that one out, go back and listen to Jonathan Mayo. He brings a lot of great insight on the Phillies farm system and a lot of these prospects, including the heavy hitters that might be here this year or next year or whenever.

00:24:05
Speaker 1: So who did the Eagles play next weekend?

00:24:09
Speaker 2: Ruben? Do you know that question?

00:24:10
Speaker 3: Because as soon as the game was over, I turned it off.

00:24:14
Speaker 6: Well, it's either going to be what what the Vikings? Well, it's not going to be is it Commanders? A chance to be the Commanders? Now? The Commands?

00:24:23
Speaker 1: They played?

00:24:24
Speaker 2: Vikings Rams play tonight.

00:24:26
Speaker 1: I think it's that one, Okay, that one?

00:24:29
Speaker 6: Or is it the Commanders because it's a it's a it's a lower seed. You know what. I should know this, but I don't.

00:24:36
Speaker 1: Well, as an.

00:24:39
Speaker 3: Exactly give us cut us a brake. As a Packers fan, I hate the Vikings. The Vikings are my cowboys. So if the you know, there's nobody really the Vikings more than me.

00:24:49
Speaker 9: Yeah.

00:24:49
Speaker 2: Oh, I just think I despised the Minnesota Vikings.

00:24:53
Speaker 3: I loved them when they went on the Art Museum a couple of years ago and did that stupid skull chant and then they got throttled by the Eagles in the postse and that in the playoffs, that was a tremendous moment for me as a lifelong Cream Bay Packers fan. So we'll be back later this week with more Phillies talk.

00:25:11
Speaker 4: Maybe we'll answer some fan questions.

00:25:14
Speaker 2: If you got any, feel.

00:25:15
Speaker 3: Free to throw us a note, shoot us a note on any of our social media channels.

00:25:19
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll address some of those and we'll have more to talk about.

00:25:23
Speaker 3: There's always ball to talk about, so we'll talk to you guys later.

00:25:28
Speaker 1: Smell you later. Boys, It's night Jim.

00:25:30
Speaker 11: The Philly Show is brought to you by the Foul Territory Network. Subscribe to The Philly Show on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. If you like us, give us a review, follow us on Instagram, TikTok x, Facebook, and threads. Find Rubens analysis before, during, and after Phillies games on NBC Sports Philadelphia, on the Sports Radio ninety four, WIP Morning Show, and MLB Network. Find Jim at all phl y dot com. Find me at MLB dot com, the Phillies bet Newsletter, and MLB at Work.