Fair Territory: Ohtani vs Skenes vs The Miz, Cal Raleigh hits IL, Mickey Moniak's epic moment

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Thursday edition of Fair Territory. As as you can see, we have a different host this week. His name is Scott Braun. You might recognize him from Foul Territory. He is the emperor of all things fair and Foul Territory. So Scott, welcome, and we have some news this morning.

00:00:21
Speaker 2: Let's start with cal Raley. First time in his career ken that he's hitting the shelf right. He's got the right oblique issue that we saw clearly an issue in last night's game as he was removed from that game. He's missed some time before that, a few days, and this could be one of the reasons why he's off to such a slow start after an MVP caliber season last year.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: I would think it is Scott, and we never know exactly what's going on with the player, how much a physical issue might be affecting a player. But this injury has been classified as a right oblique strain, which means it's probably not going to be a quick return for Cayle Rally. He played one hundred and fifty nine games last year. He's been one of the more durable players in the sport, certainly one of the most durable catchers, and this season we've seen struggles that are actually shocking coming off the sixty homer campaign, the oh for thirty six slump, the one to sixty one batting average, the five to sixty ops, all of these things not cal Riley like. And I suspect that that right side issue, which as you mentioned, cost him some time earlier, is a big reason for his struggles.

00:01:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, and for the Mariners.

00:01:29
Speaker 2: I mean you could look at this as a glass half full situation. Ken, he gets a little bit of time to get himself right and then try and be a version of what we saw last year, which would make a huge difference in the lineup for Seattle. Remember, in the offseason we looked at this team coming into the season as hopefully better.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: Yes, and the reason for that was the addition of Brandon Donovan and also Cole Young at second base and a number of different things, the addition of Jose Ferrara for the bullpen. They should be better, but as we know, the games are not played on paper. You have to factor in injuries and later trades and see how it all plays out. And certainly this is a big blow for the Mariners. The good news for them is that their pitching is healthy and has been healthy. Bryce Miller coming off the il, and assuming that Raleigh isn't lost for I don't know, four to six weeks, they should be okay. No one's running away with that division. The A's have been the best team in the division, and even the A's are flawed. We know that. So in a year in which the Astros are going significantly backwards, the Rangers are still struggling to hit, and the Angels or the Angels, I don't know that any one injury is going to mean that much negatively to the Mariners, but certainly cal Raley is cal Raley. He is the heartbeat, not just of their offense, but of course of their run prevention as well, because he is so skilled behind the plate.

00:02:53
Speaker 2: Now, let's flip it to another team dealing with so many injuries, and more have popped up. It seems like they've avoided a scare with Juan Soto from yesterday, as he's already back in the lineup for today ken so I don't think we need to spend much time on him.

00:03:07
Speaker 3: But let's get to the Mets in general.

00:03:08
Speaker 2: This is big Francisco Alvarez have been one of the brighter spots in the lineup for a team that can't score runs consistently, and now he's going to probably miss two months.

00:03:17
Speaker 1: Yes, and that's a huge blow on top of several other huge blows that they've suffered this season. Of course, Francisco Lindor being the big one, Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Junior on top of Alvarez. Now that's four regulars. Just see the names right there on the left that they are missing, and three replacements. These are just on the position player side, Ronnie Mauricio who was Lindor's replacement, Mike Takman and Jared Young who also could have been outfield supplements. But at the same time, the Mets got a good situation last night, or a good development, I should say, with of course Carson Benches walk off scoring aj Ewing. If not for the injuries to talk when in young prohas, those guys would not have gotten the opportunity. You could still argue it's too soon, but at the same time, the Mets are where they are in somewhat of a desperate position, so they're going to play their kids, and with Alvarez out, Louis Terrenz will get more playing time. It's not ideal, but I will say this, the Mets are not the only team dealing with a number of injuries. Look at Houston, Look at Toronto, look at Baltimore. Those are just three teams that have had big time injury problems as well. And when I talked with Carlos Mendoza last week about this, when the Mets were in Arizona, we had them on Fox, he basically said, Hey, there's no excuses, you gotta go play. And that is the unfortunate reality of a team in their situation.

00:04:45
Speaker 2: Ken the Mets have been hammered for some of the roster construction and how it has played out so far this year. One underrated component is the best ability being availability and how that's factored into decision making. And Francisco Lindoor has been a very durable player over the course of his career. But when it comes to Polanco and Robert, both of them have not been able to stay on the field.

00:05:06
Speaker 3: Over the past few years.

00:05:08
Speaker 2: So just to use the Polanco example, right, I know they weren't going to pay Pee Alnzo like that, but Pete's there. I mean, he plays every day Polanco's hurt right now, So I know that some of it can be looked at as unlucky, but I don't think Luis Robert and Jorge Polanco situations are looked at that way. While I know Nimo's missed a few games here and there, but also another super durable player.

00:05:28
Speaker 3: They get rid of those two.

00:05:29
Speaker 2: It's not just what they do on the field, it's that they also stay on the field.

00:05:33
Speaker 1: Scott absolutely, And the one point that their president of baseball Operations, David Stearns conceded this week was that they might not have evaluated the injury risks of several of the players they acquired appropriately. Of course he's talking about Polanco and he's talking about Louise Robert junior. Now, Polanco last year actually was healthy and was pretty durable, but you're right, he has a history of this. And this was my concent with this team. One of them coming into the season, Boba Jed has missed some time also in recent years, and though so far, so good with him, but they had some injury risk that they took on. And when you have someone who is as durable as Alonzo, as durable as Nimo, in my view, teams often take that kind of thing for granted. The Braves don't. Actually the Braves value that in their players, they play them every day. But it seems to me the Mets undervalued it when it came to those two players, and that might have been a miscalculation on their part.

00:06:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, obsession over rate stats.

00:06:37
Speaker 2: You got to factor in the counting stats for players over the course of a season and who could be replacing them.

00:06:42
Speaker 3: One more stay in New York City.

00:06:44
Speaker 2: Max Freed leaving after a few innings from yesterday start, and for a Yankee fan, can I think they should just be hoping that there's no long term concerns even if Freed has to miss some time. This is actually a squad that's got some starting pitching depth.

00:06:57
Speaker 1: That's absolutely right, Scott and Max Freed was optimistic yesterday. Max Freed's an honest guy. I love him. But at the same time, I never trust the players medical evaluation of themselves in the heat of the moment because they often are wrong. And we'll see he'll have some imaging done today, we'll see what it is. But of all the teams in Major League Baseball, the Yankees are perhaps the best position to withstand. As you said, a temporary loss of Max Freed. Gary Cole is close to coming off the il. Rodin has come off the il. They have right now in their rotation Schlitler, Will Warren, Weathers and Rodin, and you're gonna have the possibility of Luis Hill at some point coming back. He's in the miners right now. And Elmo Rodriguez, who made a pretty impressive debut when he was up with the Yankees earlier. So they have all these pieces. Obviously, you want Max Freed, and you want Max Freed healthy in October, but if he is lost for some length of time, they're gonna be in a better position than most clubs.

00:08:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a talented set of arms. Most of those arms, when they're going right, can pitch playoff games for you. That's how good it looks right now for the Yankees if it all comes together at the right time.

00:08:12
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00:09:13
Speaker 2: Okay, let's get away from the injuries here. Let's get to some positivity and what I think is going to be a fun segment here, Let's hit the lead. It's powered by a game changer and more on how game changer is great coming up in a bit. But let's start with a scenario for you. All Star Game is Tuesday. Let's just say it is, right, Ken, who are you selecting to start for the National League on the mound? Is it as easy as sho Heo Tani sub one er or perhaps are there some other entertaining options that need to be considered.

00:09:45
Speaker 1: There are some other options that do need to be considered, and granted, Scott, the game is two months away. We're not there yet, but it is amazing what we're seeing in the National League. In particular, those three guys are the guys to focus on. Otani seven scoreless last night against the Giants, absolutely brilliant, lowers his era to zero point eight two. That leads the majors. Now here's a guy who is obviously focused on potentially winning a cy young He wants to do that something he hasn't done yet, and it certainly seems within his reach. But also last night we saw the Miz doing his thing. And the Miz extends his scoreless streak to eighteen and a third innings. He threw forty pitches last night, one hundred miles an hour or above. Ended the seventh with the strikeout of Nick Castillo's at one oh three point two, and he leads the majors in strikeout rate. It's up to nearly forty percent. Now he's seventh in the league in era. But my gosh, he would be an electric starter for the All Star Game as well. And then there's that Skeens guy in Pittsburgh. Now you remember Opening Day he had that misfortune at City Field. He allowed five runs in two thirds of an innings, gets removed and you wonder, Okay, is this just a fluke? Yeah, it was just a fluke. Since then, Paul Skian's THERA is one point nine. He's allowed just six runs, just one more than he did opening Day in forty nine and a third inning. So what we have here are three guys pitching at an elite level. And I'm not even talking about some of the others in the top ten in the National League in the ra Bryce Elder among them. Chase Burns is another one. It's really cool to see the pitching that we're seeing at the same time. And I want to say this with Miz we all gush over his miles per hour, his velocity. I just fear injury, and you have to fear injury when someone is throwing that hard. Now, maybe he's the rare specimen that could actually physically do this, and so far, so good. But every time he pitches Scott, he crosses my mind, Man, how long is this gonna last?

00:11:56
Speaker 2: No, I understand at that level, you're like, nobody else is doing this, nobody else really has done this. Where you're chucking one to oh three to start the game and to end the outing. You know, seventh inning, last strikeout there against Castianos was just ridiculous.

00:12:10
Speaker 3: So here's the follow up I have for you. Ken.

00:12:12
Speaker 2: Let's assume that all three starters make their starts throughout the year their scheduled starts, keeping in mind that Otani will probably notch a few less, they'll give him extra rest. They're all healthy. We get to the end of the season, we have three different profiles here. I would venture a guess that Otani's going to finish with Let's say, I don't know, five to six starts less than those two, if he stays on track the way the Dodgers have him. But Skeens and Misowski are in a very similar spot. Innings wise, can look at the Miz and the strikeouts, and that's a big deal for voters too, Right, there's not even contact there. Skeens, I think can do what Miz is doing, but he wants to go deeper into his outings. So I just think you have three different profiles, and I'm just curious to get your take on if this quarter pole plays out to a full season, how you think voters will evaluate it.

00:12:58
Speaker 1: It's a really good question, Scott, and it's a really good question because voters have different views of this. Now, I'm a guy who values bulk. In my opinion, if a starter pitches, say two hundred and ten innings, he had a more difficult path than a starter who pitches one seventy one point eighty. And yet in recent years we've seen that kind of logic flipped. Voters have preferred the elite performance over one eighty per se over a guy to ten who might be a little bit less. Snell over Verlander was one example of it. Actually, both of Snell's cy Young's were examples of it. So I don't know which way the voters would go, and clearly we have to see how this plays out, but it's a fascinating question. Because to me, I know, the rate stats like you mentioned, and the strikeouts per nine and all that and strikeout percentage all really important of course, but when you're throwing thirty or forty more innings than the next guy, you're doing something for your team team that can't necessarily be measured in the individual statistics, and that should be taken into account. Most vhotos, from what I can see these days, see it the other way.

00:14:12
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:14:12
Speaker 2: I think about Corbyn Burns twenty twenty one n L right, one hundred and sixty seven innings. That was forty six and a third less than Zach Wheeler's two thirteen and a third. But Corbyn Burns had, you know, some better rate stats, strikeout numbers, stuff like that. So I love that when we start to go over, you know what's important to people on a quality basis. So we'll wait, we'll give it a little more time or only a quarter into the season. But props a game changer for helping us out with this segment. It is the number one youth sports app. I encourage you to take a look, especially if you've got a kiddo playing a little ball, little little league ball. Right now, it's the app that helps you coach smarter, connect live, replay the action, and you know, you can watch your kid if you're at the office still late and you want to see them playing in their little league action, you can do that on the Game changerr app.

00:14:54
Speaker 3: Learn more at GC dot com. Be right back with Dude and Dork of the Week. The dude, so that's what you call me.

00:15:08
Speaker 2: Let's do this due to the week? Ken, you're up first, all right.

00:15:11
Speaker 1: If you're a regular viewer of our show, you know I'm partial to guys who were kind of down and out and then rebuilt their careers. So by due to the Week? Is Mickey Moniac of the Colorado Rockies, the number one overall choice in the twenty sixteen draft. He's had a hard road. Remember he was traded by the Phillies to the Angels in a Noah Cindergaard trade. He ultimately was released by the Angels, and then he latched on with the Rockies last season and right now and it might not last, but right now he leads the major leagues in slugging percentage. So Mickey Moniac, to me, that's what we love about this game, to see guys who are up and down, then up again, and just keep persevering due to the week.

00:15:53
Speaker 2: Sometimes you gotta let that stick really marinate. Yeah, ten years after he's drafted. I'll be quick on my dude. I just wanted to read this out for you because I think you'd find this fascinating. Some fans will like to say, oh, the Phillies they blew it on that one to one pick back in twenty sixteen with Matt Klintech running the front office back then. Ken, I'll just read you some of the names after that number two Reds, Nick Senzel, three Braves, Ian Anderson, who did help them win a World Series, but you know has not panned out since then. Riley Pints for the Rockies than Corey Ray for the Brewers. I mean, we're really struggling here. I'm going down the line the notable picks like Gavin Lux at twenty, Will Smith was thirty two. Now we're getting into the comp round, Corbyn Burns fourth round, Pete Alonzo second round. But my point is the teams generally have the same top twenty twenty five whatever, there was not much there. It just happened to be one of those drafts in twenty sixteen where we didn't get star talent.

00:16:44
Speaker 1: That's right, Scott, And I'm actually working on a note about this for tomorrow, Alonzo. Of the players you mentioned, of the players in that draft, is the one with the highest career war at least Baseball Reference version of War, and I believe he went sixty seventh overall. It was one of those that just wasn't, as you said, very deep in talent. And that happens once in a while. It's cyclical.

00:17:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'm talking about again for people to know the top of the draft there, right, Like if you look at the first twenty picks or so, you're like, I can't really point to a guy where I think the Phillies really blew it. Okay, I'll get to mind nice and simple here, Buster posey. Why just one reason, Ken, Let's make May trades a thing. It's back to back years. He makes the early trade for Devers. Now he makes the trade here with Patrick Bailey, which is not as big of a deal as Devers, but it did provide some really interesting content for us to cover this week because of how debated he is as a player in terms of his framing and his defense versus the rest of his game. So I just want to give props to Buster Posey for saying I don't care what the industry says about leverage and waiting closer to the trade deadline.

00:17:48
Speaker 3: If I want to do something, I'm going to do it now.

00:17:50
Speaker 1: I like that too. And the one thing about Buster Posey, and I wrote a column earlier this week that was in some ways critical and in some ways recognizing his decisiveness and boldness. This is the thing that so far has defined him, and in this day and age in our game, that kind of decisiveness is a separator. We don't see it from very many heads of baseball operations, AJ Preller, Jerry Depoto, a few others, but Buster Posey has done it repeatedly. We'll see if it's for better or for worse, but yes, he has been very decisive.

00:18:23
Speaker 3: I'm a fan. Trades are fun. I like it. Let's get to dorks. What do you have for us?

00:18:34
Speaker 1: All right, Scott? Now, I'm all for celebrations. I was never one who thought that was out of line or anything like that. I love it, love bath flips, love all of that. But the Giants outfielders this week, what they did, I can't even say it because it's kind of X rated. What they did was a little bit out of line. They didn't do it again, and I think we all got to laugh out of it. But they're the Dorgs of the week. You can't do that, guys. You can't I ate sex on the baseball field.

00:19:03
Speaker 2: Arik Kratz called it hula hooping. I thought that was a PG way to put it for our crowd, but it was yeah, Yeah, it was intense ken and I'm sure there'll be a story at some points. Someone definitely said something to them like, hey, guys, you can't do whatever you want. There are kids watching, and I'm with you too, like I want to see it all you guys want to do eight high fives, jump around, do whatever you want.

00:19:25
Speaker 3: Like cool?

00:19:26
Speaker 2: But to me, even I'm trying to think, I don't have kids yet, but I'm like, would I want my kid to see what I just saw there?

00:19:32
Speaker 1: You know?

00:19:32
Speaker 2: Did I find it hilarious for one time? Yes, But I'm with you on that one. And then for me, I'm going to refer to Mike Felger who's on ninety eighty five the Sports Hub in Boston, and I'm all for good content.

00:19:45
Speaker 3: Have a good time.

00:19:46
Speaker 2: We talked about Mike Trout trade scenarios for years on FT as well, but he was throwing out, you know, a suggestion from a friend that oh, the Red Sox really want Trout and they're going to go after him and all of that, and I'm like, hold up, Yeah. You can see Crats with his thumbs down in our reaction when we went over it on FT yesterday. Ken, here's the big part for me. The Red Sox can want them all they want, right, Mike Trout has a no trade class. It's important to note that, and for anyone that's covered Mike Trout and I have a lot and spoken to him quite often. Super nice guy. That's not a team he's going to approve. I can say that pretty strongly, and people can come after me for that. I don't care. I will say this strongly. Mike Trout is not going to approve a trade to Boston. I think he would approve a number of other spots because eventually he does want to try and get to a Playoff appearance again. But for me, Ken, maybe maybe you feel differently, but knowing Trout, that is not the environment that he wants and I'm not just talking about Boston pressure. I'm also even just talking about the turnover within the front office lately and the Dever situation, Korra, etc.

00:20:46
Speaker 3: Like. Trout wants none of that. That's not his game, Scott.

00:20:50
Speaker 1: He has given no indication he wants anything with regard to a trade. He has never indicated that at all. In fact, it's been just the opposite. I want to win with the Angels and that's that. So the first step here, if it ever comes to pass, is Mike Trout agreeing that okay, I would like to go to a winner and a team that would be more competitive than the Angels. He has not said he wants to do that. He says repeatedly, I want to do it here. So we can talk all we want, and we will. But this is a dead issue for now.

00:21:25
Speaker 3: Yeah it is. I I mean, it's his career.

00:21:28
Speaker 2: But I do think at some point he might regret not saying okay. And also we don't know if Ardy Marino and the Angels would ever even entertain it again. But if there is ever a time and Trout's healthy at the trade deadline, you gotta consider it. I just think it's a fun topic. So just wanted to bring it up. Ken, good stuff.

00:21:43
Speaker 3: It was fun. Always enjoy it.

00:21:45
Speaker 1: Scott. Thanks for joining us, and we'll be back right after this with the Grilling Ken segment. All right, time now for Grilling Ken, the part of the show where you guys get to ask me questions. Let's get right to it. First question comes from Lance Johnson five to h four, who asks, will Chris gets in the White Sox become buyers since the Ales Central is so forgiving. I am glad you asked this question because we need to talk about the White Sox As of this moment. The White Sox are five hundred first time in a long time. Not only are they five hundred in the forgiving American League, just not the American League Central, it's the entire league is forgiving. They currently hold the White Sox due the second wild cards, so if they are in contention at the deadline, if this holds, will they add? And that's the question, Lance Johnson, there is asking. I would say the answer is probably yes, but in a limited way. So you're not gonna see the White Sox or any team in their position like the Cardinals, for example. They be a similar type club rebuilding They're not going to abandon their plan, their plan to grow with young talent simply to chase one wild card. But at the same time, those teams, I am quite certain, will recognize that these opportunities are precious. You don't know if next year will be as good as this year. So if you have a chance to make the playoffs this year, you owe it to your players, you owe it to your fans to at least do something to upgrade your roster. Good question, I like it. Next one comes from Tyler Maxsmith, who asked, do you think Bryce Elder is legit or is this just an average pitcher having a hot streak. He is legit, and he's legit because he's changed his mix. He's done some things differently, added some things here and there, and he's a guy that, yes, had some struggles last year as recently is then, but at the same time has done this now for seven or eight nine starts, and he looks like a pitcher. He's never going to be a big stuff guy, so he can simply get away with ninety eight ninety eight big slider all that he has to pitch. And while obviously those guys are subject to more contact battered ball luck. In my opinion, Bryce Elder has turned a corner and yes he is legit. Next question, this one comes from Jim Jim Huerta, who asks, what's going on with Jazz? His year seems so mad? True, his year is mad. And remember at the start of the season, actually in spring training, Jazz was talking about the possibility of going fifty to fifty, fifty home runs, fifty stolen bases. He was thirty thirty, I believe, last year. And obviously that's a lofty goal to set for yourself. And so far this season, in his free agent year, it's not happening for him. You see his statistics right there. It's not Jazz like and the ops in particular is rather low. I don't know that anything in particular is going on. Sometimes players do struggle when they know the big money is coming. But Jazz Chisholm Junior is in a great position, particularly after Nico Horner signs his extension with the Cubs. Among all position player free agents, he's going to be right near the top of the list. So if that's bothering him, and I don't know that it is, he simply has to relax and go back to being the player he is, and I expect that that's going to happen at some point this season. Next question comes from Elvis Santoyo, who asks can greater chance of happening the Mets recovering and making the playoffs? We were comment hitting four forty home runs by the All Star break or you joining Tim Kirkton in running the sausage race. Wow. The best chance of that happening, I would say, is the Mets recovering, and I enjoy the humor in that question Tim and I. If we ran in the sausage race, Tim would win. Tim is the better athlete. When we were in Baltimore together many decades ago, he would crush me. Not only in the newspaper, yes we had newspapers back then and newspapers in print. He would crush me as well on the basketball courts. So Tim would win that more. Kami's not hitting forty by the break. He might hit forty for the season. The Mets do stand some chance of coming back this season, though it doesn't look all that good for them right now. So that is it for us. Foul Territory is coming up next. Our guest will be Robert Murray jesus Cano new to the Athletic and Fair territory with Me and Me Alone is back on Monday. Thanks everyone for watching, Thanks everyone for listening, and have a great weekend.

00:26:31
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