982: NFL Draft - A Questionable Quarterback Class

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris j zacher Reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode nine and eighty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: I do this series of episodes every year. I bring on a guest and we talk about the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver classes for that particular upcoming NFL draft. So it's three episodes with three separate guests. Some of you may be wondering why this isn't just a Late Round perspectives episode instead, and the answer is because I'm talking about a very specific topic here perspectives. That's a conversation that just jumps all over the place. The Late Round podcast is either a solo show with just me, or if I have guests on, we're focused on something super specific. Like today, today we're focused on this year's quarterback class. And the WII is yours truly, and my longtime friend Jim Sonis. Jim and I worked together for a long time at Number five and Fandle. He's hopped on the show for many years now to talk about quarterbacks because he has a really interesting quarterback model that's done quite well in the past. Just last year he was telling everyone that Jayden Daniels was the QB one in that draft class. Jim and I sat down and had a quick conversation about his quarterback model and this year's draft class. I think you guys are gonna love it, especially when you hear who his model likes best this year. It's kind of a surprise. So let's get right to it. Here's my conversation with mister Jim Sonnis. So, Jim, for the listeners who aren't aware of your quarterback prospecting work and the model that you've developed, can you sort of describe it and what goes into it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I had two separate models. One is a pre draft model. One is a post draft model. The post draft one obviously influenced heavily by Draft Capital. Well, the pre draft one honestly, I kind of use for like betting, like NFL draft props when I could rip Illinois, So I used it for betting, So I kept like draft capital out of there. But honestly, I've wound up liking that model more because it looks at just the player's age, experience and efficiency, nothing else. No expected draft capital nothing like that, literally, just their collegiate resumes. And what you're looking for ideally is a quarterback prospect who is young, experienced, and efficient, and you don't get a lot of guys to check all three boxes. In fact, it's a very small list we'll talk about later on, but generally players who are higher ranked in that model that blends those things together do tend to both go higher in the draft and be better as pros compared to contemporaries taken in similar spots in the draft. So we'd be more specific. Looking from twenty ten on, you have looking at just first round quarterbacks and twining ten on, fourteen of those guys have finished inside the top ten and total EPA by number fires metrics in one third of their qualified season, so fourteen like star really good first round picks. Those guys have been on average in the eighty second percentile of the pre draft model, and that includes Josh Allen and Jordan Love, who are very low, which tells you how high up the other guys in that subset are. The less successful first round picks have been the seventieth percent toile, so seventieth for the less successful guys, eighty second percentile for the hits. It's a pretty big gap. And in general, if you look at like the specific buckets, the Hits are younger, more experienced, and more efficient than their counter parts on average. Then I've always looked at through the lens of first round picks because most successful quarterbacks are first rounders, but it's true for late round guys too, honestly, and again, if you look at the average successful non first round picks since twenty ten, they've been in the seventy fourth percentile of the pre draft model, whereas the average Day two or Day three pick is in the forty ninth percentile. Now it's seven guys because there aren't a lot of successful non first round picks, but Jalen Hurts ranks number two overall among all quarterbacks in history of the model. Russell Wilson is the only other non first rounder inside the top ten. Both those guys are now Super Bowl champions, which is pretty good there. So I do think that prioritizing these buckets young, efficient, experienced is good even when you're comparing to players who had similar spots in the draft, which is why I continue to valuate have grown to like the pre draft model more than I used to initially when I built it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it feels like young in experienced.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we've talked about this in the past because this is what like your fourth year coming on to talk about quarterbacks, but it feels similar to what we look at it like wide receiver or it's all based on the fact that you're breaking out in a way, not even breaking out necessarily, but you're talented enough that you're good enough to be able to essentially start at the collegiate level as a freshman or as a sophomore and early on in your college career, and that then is telling that you're talented.

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Speaker 2: Is that basically what that data is saying.

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Speaker 3: One hundred percent to force the coaching staff's hands to play you right away, like and I think that that's important part. We're talking about age too, because last year Jaden Daniels Bonnicks both older than average, but they both started as true freshmen at their respective colleges and then started throughout their entire career. So yes, they were older, but they also had tons of experience. So it's those two things kind of working in tandem. Like if you are not as experienced, but you're younger, Like you're a quarterback who is good enough to declare early, like you know, Caleb Williams, you know a ton of experience, Trevor Lawrence, I guess kind of did. But like if you're young enough to like declare early, that's kind of offset by the age. So it's kind of the biggest red flags of the guys who check neither. But it is a red flag if if you only check one of those boxes, well, preference is for you to check bowl right.

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Speaker 1: So you're really saying, like, if there's a late breakout quarterback who is also a little bit older, that's a red flag.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, very much.

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Speaker 3: So like if you're looking at busts in the history of the NFL draft, a lot of guys will wind up falling in that bucket where it's like guys who are either you know, older and not experienced, Like that's your Mitchell Trbisky bucket. There are a lot of guys who fall in that bucket.

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Speaker 1: So you're looking at it from this perspective of age an efficiency. You know, if you were to really dumb this down, what do you think people get wrong when they're evaluating quarterbacks? From a number's driven lens, because you know, I'll say that, like I don't have a quarterback model. As many people know, it's a really difficult thing to do and to really manage and to you know, fully comprehend. So what do you think that that folks might get a little bit wrong as they're evaluating quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: I think it really is the agent experiencing. Like anyone can look at efficiency numbers and be like, okay, cool, Like Mac Jones is awesome, you know, like mac Jones is great in college, so maybe mac Jones will be good pro Like you can do that anyway, But like the agent efficiency blend really does matter a lot, and it is specifically looking at like bus. So there are fifteen first round picks who have never had a season inside the top fifteen in totally PA with a minimum three years in the way. So not count Anthony Richardson yet, guys like that or Bryce Young throwing them out. Of those fifteen, we'll call them busts. Of those fifteen bus, eight of them had thirty or fewer games with at least ten pass attempts in college, So more than half and six of them were older than twenty two and a half years old. On Day one of the draft, the only guy who was in neither bucket either older than he'd want or less experience than he want was Paxson Lynch. So Paxson Lynch a bust wasn't the most efficient quarterback, so you probably could have seen that one coming there. But most of these guys who wind up falling short are guys who don't check both those boxes. And honestly, that's coming up again this year because people are talking about Tyler Shuck, who is eighty seven years old. He is the fourth oldest quarterback invited to the Combine since twenty ten. It's Brandon Whedon, then two undrafted guys who are older than him, and he also has only thirty one games of experience, so we're seeing it pop up again. Age does matter. Lamar Jackson was young coming out, so it was Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jordan Love. Even the guys the model gets wrong, like Alan in Love, they tend to be younger. So I think they just kind of focusing on age and focusing on experience level, especially the two of them together. It is something that we don't quite value enough.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's very really interesting this quarterback class. I feel like the reviews of the class, it's just kind of all over the place. Some people think it's bad, others think that they're undervalue. Just overall, if you were to sort of rate it from zero to ten, where would this class land? And then how does that compare to recent classes? You know, last year? For the record, Jim came on this show last year and had Jaden Daniels as QB one and was pounding the table for Daniels, And you liked the QB class last year a decent bit. This year, though, where does that compare even to last year or the year before that.

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Speaker 3: It's definitely a lot short of that. So, like you look at the guys who are well rated in this year's class, like the bottle Us Cam Warren talk about that later, likes Jackson Darn't we'll talk about that. Everyone else who's like getting some like day two buzz, like Quinn Eewers, Jaln Milroe, Tyler Shock, we talked about Schidua Sanders. It's a lot lower on those guys. Whereas you look at the depth last year, like the model wasn't as high in Drake May, but it still had him inside the seventy fifth percentile, which would be number three of the top end guys in this class. And now there are some guys who are above there who are gonna be lower end grades, but it's just not very deep. And if you look at again the well rated guys in terms of scouting, a lot of them rank lower. So like a two and a half out of ten, probably only two guys in general above the eighty fifth percentile that includes everybody invited to the combine. Only two guys above the eighty fifth percentile, which is where that like you find the superstars, is eighty fifth percentile or higher. So it has a lot of okay players, a lot of guys who are like, eh, fine, sure, Day two, Day three kind of guys. But if you're looking at like the archetype of successful analytics hits at quarterback, it's really really lacking.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about those two guys, because I think that people are going to be not shocks necessarily, but at least surprised. And I think it's okay that people would feel surprised because you can obviously explain it and talk through it. But you know, right now, cam Ward I'd say, unbelievably good chance that he goes first overall in this draft. So he's going to be the Titan starting quarterback or eventually starting quarterback. I would imagine he's probably gonna start pretty pretty quickly. But he's not your model's top quarterback. Let the let the audience know who your number one quarterback is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, uh, cheapishly, it's Jackson Dart, And I know it's important to acknowledge this is not my personal rankings. I would put cam Ward first, but like I do think that what the model is saying that Dart is a worthy first round pick. If that's like our thesis, I would wholeheartedly agree with that, because let's go back to our like. Overall, what we want we want young, experienced, and efficient, and Jackson Dart is all three of those things. If you look back at all the quarterbacks in my model, which is two hundred and sixty three total, only nine of them have been invited to the combine with at least thirty games with ten plus pass attempts. They've been younger than twenty two on Day one of the draft, had a total QBR at least eighty in their final year in College. Those nine quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, my boy, Jared Goff, my other unfortunate boy, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jackson Dart. And that's not like a cherry pick number either. Like Dart has forty five games, whereas this was thirty was the benchmark. He had an eighty six total QBR. This is eighty the benchmark. He'll be twenty one point nine on Day one of the draft, but he was a four year starter at two different Power five schools. So it's really hard for the model not to like a guy when you're gonna check all those boxes. Nearly non first round picking that bucket was Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jeremiah compared Dart to Hertz. I think the Dark himself at the Combine interviews compared itself to Hurts too, and honestly, like that's my top confident too, just from like a numbers perspective. Stylistically, he's not squad in six fifty. I don't know, but maybe he is, But like not stylistically, but from a numbers perspective, they are both guys who started right away. They played started all four years, they had a transfer at a certain point of transfer from other school as a Power five school, continue to start there, put up really good numbers, and we're younger than twenty two when they came out, So I think it makes It's a comp that makes a lot of sense. Now what you'll see. The counterpoint to Dart is that Lane kiff In offenses don't translate to the NFL, and like in theory that's true. But the sample of quarterbacks who have been in a Lane Kiffin offense and then invited to the combine is two. Those guys are Matt Barkley and Matt Carral. Corral was like twenty four and still hadn't graduated from Ole Miss yet, which was weird. Like Sam Howell was like twenty years old and he's at the Senior Bowl, but Matt Corral was not eligible that year. It was weird. It was a very weird thing to me. Should have been a red flag that Macrel might bust. But he was older, he had fourteen fewer games of experience. His adjusted yards per attempt was two point three yards lower than Darts was. And then Barkley was pretty young, still in pretty experience, but also didn't have anywhere near the efficiency's total KEEPR fifteen points lower than Darts was, So I don't think it's very fairer to lump him in with them. It's fair to think if he will struggle the transition because there is a lot of play action there are you know, they're very good at getting guys open to that all miss offense. But he checks a lot of important and fun boxes. And because we've seen guys like Hertz and Wilson right out well in the model go lo in the draft and still be successes, I personally don't want to give up a hope on Dart, even if he does wind up slipping outside the first round.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The other thing that I'm thinking this is more of a like a real football stance and standpoint. And I'm thinking this a little bit selfishly. I don't say this very often on the show, but the Steelers are technically my team, right. I grew up a big, big Steelers fan. I grew up in Pittsburgh, and you know, on the lay Around podcast, I don't care to be biased either way because I just through doing this, I've just become less of a fan because I just enjoy other teams, like, like you know, teenager, JJ would hate the fact that I enjoy the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: But with that being said, it feels like Jackson Dart would be a perfect yes player to fall in the twenties, right where the Steelers are drafting, where he's not even necessarily starting right away. Let's say that they get Aaron Rodgers because we're recording this before any of that would potentially happen, but it feels like that would like it makes sense in that sort of scenario. So you're saying that in the twenties is a perfect spot for Dart to get drafted.

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Speaker 3: I pray go specifically to the Steelers. That'd be awesome. Yeah, good infrastructure. I like the moves and data along their offensive line, Like long term, I think they're going to be solid up there once they get healthy. And like again you talk about the the successful, like the young experience efficient guys, like they didn't all go Hi. Mahomes went tenth, Deshaun Watson went twelfth, Lamar Jackson went thirty second, So like they don't have to go top five to be hits. That was more true in the past, where it's like you got to be the first overall pick to be good. That's been less true recently. It's been less true specifically for these younger experienced efficient guys because they may not have had the top end efficiency, but they were efficient enough for how young an experienced.

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Speaker 1: They right, the age adjusted production was ex elite, but maybe they didn't hit that like Joe Burrow esque.

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Speaker 2: Type season right exactly makes sense.

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Speaker 1: So number two in the model, and from an analytics perspective, you have cam Ward.

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Speaker 2: Talk about him a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you think that he's close to Dart like score wise and analytically, and then do you think that you know between the two Let's say that both of them are starting okay, and let's just say that they're comparable enough from a passing perspective, which one do you think might bring a little bit more juice for fantasy football purposes, whether it's like big playability, rushing ability, all of that.

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Speaker 3: So they both run, which is really fun actually, so I would say like it could be both in that regard. Like Dart is a good athlete, he is aggressive. Cam Ward is chaotic in a very fun way. So I think that both could be really fun and partly because my model does like both. Like, yes, cam Ward's number two in this class and it's a bad class, but he's also ninety six percentile ninth all time in this so like he is a really good quarterback prospect, and he's better than the average first overall pick. So looking at again the subset of twenty ten on he has our first overall picks had been in the ninetieth percentile of the model. Only Jamis Winston was below the eighty six percentile, So Ward is better than the average first overall pick. He's a little bit older, twenty two point nine years old, but that's between the ages of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Entering last year, he again the league average for a first round pick is twenty two point three years old. Again, Ward is twenty two point nine, but as we sall with Daniels, it's not an issue if your experience and efficient, and Ward was that. So I think that he checks a lot of key boxes. And also subjectively he's super fun to watch. It's like if you ever had like too much espresso on an empty stomach, that's what watching cam Ward is like it's like, okay, I can't tell Off'm about to have a panic attack or like if I'm enjoying this, but it's kind of both. And so like I want him to be good. I think he's good based on what the number say, and I think even though it's a not a good quarterback class, even though he's number two in this class, I do think that I personally am higher on cam Ward than the market. You look like big board rankings, he's like eight, nine, ten somewhere in there in the consensus big board rankings. I think he should be like top three personally.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Okay, so that's good.

00:17:45
Speaker 1: So that means too that both of these guys are top ten since twenty ten pre draft wise.

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Speaker 3: Correct yep, and then it's a big fall off after that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well let's talk about that fall off.

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Speaker 1: So George Sanders, he's typically ranked, typically ranked as the number two quarterback. Again, I think that his ranking among draft analysts varies more than because like a lot of people will have Jackson Dart in like that late first dish kind of area into the second round, a lot of people will have cam Ward you know, going to or you know, being like a top like you said, top five, top ten guy shaud Or Sanders is just all over the place, like people either love or hate him, and so your model has him as QB four pre draft. So can you talk about what's sort of scaring Maybe you op, but at least the model.

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Speaker 3: Off, so I definitely get scared off too. I think the model gets more scared off of Shoudur than I do. I'd rank him QB three. Will Howard's above him the model, and I'd rank Shaudu above of above Howard personally. But I do think that the red flags raised by his analytical profile are legitimates. And it's weird because, like you, hear the narratives around Sanders, and the data actually converges perfectly with all the narratives. Where the narrative is he is the best passer in this class, one hundred percent accurate. He is extremely accurate. He has ranked seconds in passing in the country last year according to ESPN's data. So like, very good thrower of the football, very good processor, and stuff like that. But the other narratives are that he takes way too many sacks, he does not run, doesn't add value with his legs, so he's kind of like a nineteen eighties or a nineteen nineties ideal of a quarterback where he's going to win from the pocket, probably not going to do a whole lot else for you. It doesn't have a lot of the physical tools that you want. If you look at again EPA, he lost the fourth most EPA due to sacks in the entire country, and part of that's because they threw a lot his volume, but also the offensive line fifty first pass blocking grade at PFF, so like, yeah, they weren't amazing. But also, like when you're watching Shaudure, there are so many times where he tries to run backwards to escape, and he kind of compounds these issues with sacks. And so if you look at Chaduur in obvious passing situations, so third or fourth down, six plus yards to go, he had negative eighty four rushing yards last year, and like, yeah, that's because you lose yards for sacks. But that's also if you look at drafted FBS quarterbacks in twenty to twenty eleven, that is the second worst number of all time, head of only Tom Savage, Tom Savage eight and athletes. Yeah, so I know Tom Savage well, you're right exactly. So that's the area that Shaduur is in. If you're looking at successful first round picks, nobody's been lower on that metric than negative thirty five, and Chadore is fifty yards below that number. He's still in the seventy second percentile of yards per play in those situations, so his passing does help, but it is also below both cam Ward and Jackson Dart in that specific number. And you look at those numbers, they all hurt his KVR, like that value is rushing value sacks. He's also older, twenty three point two years old. He's actually older than cam Ward, despite the fact that cam Ward is in college for five years and Shaduur is there for four years, so below average efficiency he was there. He's a little bit older than he like, so he's checking only one of the boxes and that boxes experience. I don't mind if he missed one box, most quarterbacks do, but missing two is a pretty big concerns. So, like, let's contextualize this seventy first percentile of the model. Since twenty ten, there have been six quarterbacks drafted inside the top five who are below the eightieth percentile of the model, and those guys are Jamis Winston, Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Drake May, and Anthony Richardson. Those guys is combined for one top ten season in total EPA across the entirety of their careers. It was Carson Wentz the area tors acl Donald was outside the top ten this year, even despite playing with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Kevin o'caddle in a dome, still outside the top ten in total EPA. So yes, she Dori Sanders can be good like the model with badly on Josh Allen and Jordan love With. It's been too high on other guys too, like Marcus Mariota. But in the passing is good enough where you can like buy in. But the age, the sack issues, the lack of rushing, those concerns do add up a lot for me relative to where guys who go high in the draft would normally be.

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Speaker 2: So, I haven't looked into this, and maybe you haven't either, but I'll throw it out there.

00:22:03
Speaker 1: The pressure to sack stuff became a really big deal last year. There was a lot of good research on it. You know, a lot of smart people were tweeting about it and writing about it more.

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Speaker 2: Last couple of years.

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Speaker 1: Let's say uh is Sanders like the pressure to sack ratio like poster child, and in this draft class.

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Speaker 3: In this draft class, he probably would be part of it's because like I guess, Gileen Milroe and Jackson Darr do take more sacks and you would hope, but like with UH should do or it's I think the bigger issue is how many pressures he invites. So pressure to sack is like he uses pressures as like the subset, but he just invites a lot of pressures, and according to Pfstad, he is responsible himself for a lot of those pressures by holding on the ball too long. I also did look into it last year and like couldn't quite be sold on, Like pressure to sack is like one stay because I want to see if I should include in the Yeah, exactly, it didn't quite do enough for me because like the third highest number among first round picks, not including las year's classhau Jaden Danil would in above this. But Baker Mayfield had a high pressure to sack ratio, so did Justin Herbert, so did Joe Burrow, so did Lamar Jackson, so did Josh Allen, And then guys who were good in that metric are like Josh Rose and Anthony Richardson. Yeah, you have Mahomes up there, Mac Jones is up there, but then it's back Jones Carson wentz. Yeah, So it's like it's very mixed, and I didn't see enough in the data to convince me to actually put it in the mod.

00:23:23
Speaker 2: That's good to know. That's really good to know.

00:23:25
Speaker 1: You did mention Will Howard as the pre draft QB three, but you would have Shador ahead of him from a rankings perspective. Do you see Howard as a potential legitimate starter or is he closer to sort of like the rest, you know, just guys who are probably gonna be more backups.

00:23:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably more in the backup. If I had to guess, he does at least check two of the boxes because he is experienced forty five games played, he's efficient. He actually led the nation in total QBR once you count in what he did during the playoffs, which was really fun to watch. But he's twenty three points six years old. That's on the older end. And again, does he does he's had the experience at least. But so I think that with with Howard, I will let draft capital dictate where I go with him, because from a fantasy perspective, because the numbers aren't like pounding the table for him or as they are for Dart like for Dark, sure ye know, I'll be willing to buy in there. Howard's in the eighty third percentile. That's good for like a non first round pick, but it's also not the superstar threshold. So I think with him, he's a guy where I will let draft capital dictate how I handle him, because it's the analytical profile is not good enough to convince me that people may be off on him.

00:24:35
Speaker 1: I gotta also ask you about Jalen Millroe because he is very, very athletic, and that is very very good from a fantasy football perspective. So what do you see as sort of the pros and cons of his profile? And is that is he someone that you know in a super flex rookie draft we're sitting in, you know, let's say the early parts of round two or the middle parts of round two, is that around the spot people are going to or should be throwing darts his way?

00:25:03
Speaker 3: I'd want to wait longer personally, and honestly, I wind up I don't never wind up getting non first round picks and my super flex drafts, which is sometimes a bummer, Like I'd love to get Hurtz every now and then, but I tend to value draft capital so much that I don't get there with non first round picks specifically, but with Milroe models like EH on him sixty fourth percentile, He's not super old at twenty two point four years old, but also not super young considering he has his twenty seven games with ten plus pass attempts. He also just did have a like the narrative alliance here too, where he did have a down year total to QBR seventy eight point three, and that counts in what he do with his legs, so like that considers the rushing as well, but also like if you dig more into like the splits. He did struggle in a lot of concerning situations, like really bad numbers when they trailed really bad numbers against good opponents, and only the fifty eighth percentile in yards for playing obvious passing situations behind quinn Ee were as Howard doing Gabriel Leonard, all guys who could go also Day two, Day three, undraft day kind of guys. So it could happen because he's got tools, he's got athleticism. That's kind of the stuff that helped Josh Allen and Jordan Love break the model. But the model doesn't gumus being a guy who's super likely to make a difference. So I'd probably i'd need like, let's say he goes around two, I'd probably need him to slip to like the third round, especially how many like running backs that are in this class. I think I need him slip a bit more.

00:26:29
Speaker 1: That's the thing that's that's gonna be the hardest part to kind of balance is how many of those running backs end up going Day two.

00:26:35
Speaker 2: All right, last question for you.

00:26:36
Speaker 1: Any other quarterbacks you want to shout out that people should at least have on their radar right now?

00:26:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's worth talking a bit more about Schuck just because he'll get the draft capital and so people will probably want to take swipes in him. I'm probably gonna let them take swipes in him, because again, twenty five point six years old, fourth oldest quarterback at the combine. Luckily, to make us feel a bit younger, he'll probably be the last quarterback drafted who was born before two thousand. So thank you Tyler Shuck for making us feel younger for a bit longer. But like let's saypathetically, let's say the Titans draft cam Ward day one starter, Shuck would be older than every starting quarterback in the AC South, including Trevor Lawrence. He is older than a third of the league as far as starters go. I think it's eleven quarterbacks out of JJ McCarthy's going to start for the Vikings, So twenty fIF percentile guy in the model. Even if he gets, like you know, top end a round two draft capital, I'm probably okay missing out there personally.

00:27:34
Speaker 2: Jim, this was awesome.

00:27:34
Speaker 1: It's always great doing shows with you after so many of them through the years. Thank you so much for your time, greatly greatly appreciated. Anyone not following Jim and his work at FANDLE, make sure you change that right now. Check him out at Jim SNAs on Twitter and I'm on there too at Late Round QB, and make sure you check out the Late Round Prospect Guide. We're less than a month away from the draft. You'll want to read that pre draft version before the Draft officially hits you want to get prepared. That's over on lateround dot com. But thanks for listening to everyone. I'll be back at it with Lateround perspectives later this week. I'll talk to you then