916: Week 4 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacherthis j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine hundred and sixteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. When there's a waiver wire player who has a completely insane game, I really hope that I mentioned him on the Sleeper Show, and last week with Juwan Jennings that was fortunately the case. He was one of the sleepers from that episode, and to be honest, I think last week's episode was the best one of the season. There were the typical misses. Greg Dortch actually had decent peripherals, but he didn't have a strong day of production. Hunter Henry really disappointed, Jordan Whittington didn't see the exact role that I thought that he would see, and Deontay Foreman wasn't used like he was in week two. But there was a lot of good I mentioned Juwan Jennings already that was a big hit, but I also talked about Sam Darnold, who was a top ten quarterback option. Truba Hubbard had a big day, Bucky Irving was fine, Cam Akers was okay, Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Naylor both score touchdowns, and Michael Wilson was solid too. It was an eight out of ten week. I'll take it. We're on to week four. Before we get into the things, I want to remind you to check out Underdog. Underdog's a great place to play fantasy sports, with so many different offerings that will definitely fit what you're looking for right now. If you sign up over there, you'll get a nice deposit offer, a free pick that I'll help you win some cash, and then you also get my rest of season rankings. Those rest of season rankings are updated every Tuesday through the end of the year. You get access to all of those updates, so make sure you take advantage of those offers. Head to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog app, and when you sign up use promo code Late Round. Now let's get to this week's sleepers. Sam Darnold is right at the fringe for this first tiear of players. I'm looking at guys rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo League and Darnald is right around that fifty percent mark. But I actually prefer Gino Smith to Sam Darnold this week straight up, so we'll start there. Gino gets the Lions here in Week four, that game sitting with respectable forty seven and a half point total. Detroit's been pretty average for quarterbacks this year when looking at justin Fantasy points allowed, but they've been good against running backs and that's forced teams to have the sixth highest neutral script pass rate in the league against the Lions. Now, there's a chance that we see even more passing than usual from this Seahawks offense this week. And Seattle's already a top five team and pass rate over expected that's gonna help a player like Gino. Justin Fields is also in here this week. We haven't seen as much rushing production from him to start the year, and his yards per carry is well below his career average. There are reasons for that, but it's a number that's probably gonna rise as we move forward in the season. Pittsburgh gets Indianapolis. The Cultu are the twelfth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin Fantasy points allowed. They also rank in the bottom ten at generating quarterback pressure, and Fields currently has a top ten quarterback grade over on PFF when kept clean. This year. Fields has actually been a top five quarterback this season according to Next Gen stats and completion rate over expected. I think he's in a pretty good spot. And then the last quarterback to call out here who surprisingly above the ten percent mark is Andy Dalton. I just figured that people wouldn't be super aggressive with Dalton, but he bawled out last week, so it makes sense Dalton gets his old team when he goes up against Cincinnati this weekend, and the Bengals have been an above average matchup for quarterbacks to start the season. Dalton's coming off a top ten performance where he shredded the Raiders and the Bengals Panthers game has the second highest game total in this week's slate for Real Caroline has got the thirteenth best implied team total. Since that, he's been pretty below average across the board. From a defensive perspective, They're bottom half in the league in pressure rate and as a defensive unit, they've had the fifth highest EPA per play. So with Dalton, you're just playing into the fact that this is an above average matchup and he looked good last week. Now, moving on to running back, I think Rico Dowdell makes sense against the Giants on Thursday Night. Daddles saw an increase in running back rush share of about twenty percentage points from weeks one to two to week three, and he's now hit a double digit percentage target share in each of his last two The Giants have been a pretty ordinary matchup for backs this year, and Dallas is the fifth highest team total on this week slate, so he's not a bad flex option. Justice Hill is another interesting one. Baltimore gets Buffalo and the Bills ring six so far in adjusted target share allowed to running backs this year. Hill ranks in the top twenty in the league so far in rout participation. He comes in ahead of guys like Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard. This is also a game where hypothetically Baltimore could trail, just giving the way the Buffalo is playing. If that happens, you're gonna see more Justice Hill on the field. So in PPR formats, I don't think he's a terrible play. The last running back from this tier is Braylan Allen, who's still under that fifty percent mark. There will be games for the Jets this year where Allen's not used nearly as much as he was last week because game script just goes south, sort of like we saw in Week one against the forty nine ers. But the Jets get the Broncos this week and they're pretty big favorites. They're favored by more than a touchdown, so if that game goes as planned, we'll probably see Allen with another thirty percent running back rush share. We have to be a little bit concerned about his pass catching ceiling, but he's looked great and he's earned himself a role in that offense. It doesn't hurt that Denver's been a fine opponent for running backs thus far. Too Now a wide receiver, Let's go back to a guy I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, and that's Romeo Dobbs. Dobbs has run the most routes on the Packers this season. He's gonna be on the field, and Jordan Love he could easily be back too. Minnesota's not the easiest opponent, but those two things mean there's the potential for fantasy points. Now. Jayden Reid got all the love in Week one because he had that monster performance against Philadelphia, but Dobbs led the Packers in target share with a twenty two percent share. He's a solid option for a dec floor each week. Darnell Mooney was another one that I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions episode, and the Falcons get the Saints this week. Mooney has seen target chairs of twenty four percent and thirty percent over his last two games, and New Orleans has seen above average percentage of targets go to wide receivers this year versus other positions. He's a fine play to get you some production, similar to a guy like Romeo Dobs. Now, I've got two slot players who are interesting this week. The first one is Wandelle Robinson. He's run seventy nine percent of his routes from the slot this year, resulting in a strong twenty four and a half percent target chair. His ceiling isn't crazy because he has his four point four averaged up of target. But Dallas, for what it's worth, they've ranked eighth this year and adjusted slot rate allowed to wide receivers. That just looks at the percentage of wide receiver targets that goes the slot and an adjust for strength of opponent. So I think Robinson is fine. Is like a wide receiver four type. And then Josh Downs is another slot guy who's kind of interesting. I say all the time, but Pittsburgh continually is terrible against slot wide outs, and Downs returned in Week three and he played the slot for the Colts. He ran one hundred percent of his routes from that area of the field and he saw a target on thirty one percent of his routes run. That's technically a top ten number in the league right now. But it's a good matchup and the Colts need to get something going through the air keeping it safe out of the slot, and this kind of matchup makes plenty of sense. Now at tight end, I only have one guy for you in this tier, and it's Cardio Conklin himself. Tyler Conklin. Conklin finally saw his rat participation match his target share in Week three. He saw an eighteen percent target share after running around on ninety five percent of New York's dropbacks on the season. No tight end has a better rat participation than Tyler Conklin does. He gets Denver this week. Now, it could be an ugly low scoring game, but the Broncos have been a top ten opponent for tight ends so far this year, and adjustin fantasy points allow and they rank fifth and adjusted target share allowed to the position, So I think Conklin works once again. This next group of players consists of guys who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. I don't have a quarterback for you in this group, but I have running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. So let's start at running back, and let's start with Roshan Johnson. I had him as an AD on the fifteen Transaction Show because number one DeAndre Swift has been arguably the worst running back in football to start the season, and then that leads to number two Roshan Johnson seeing season highs and running back rush share, snaphare, and target share. In Week three, the Bears are facing the Rams this week. LA's been an average opponent for running backs this season when looking at things like adjusted fantasy points allowed, but teams in neutral script environments against them have been more run heavy. They ran fifth lowest and neutral script pass rate. Defensively, Johnson may see a bigger share week over week, which means he could score some fantasy points. Now. I didn't talk about Cam Aker earlier, and that's because Damian Pierce may or may not be out, so I'll just throw it in this section because Damian Pierce is rostered in fewer than five percent of leagues. Camp Makers is not, though. If Pierce is back, this backfield could be a mess, but it does make Pierce somewhat of an interesting dart. If he's not back, then expect cam Akers to see a lot of work once again. He wasn't overly efficient in Week three, but he did see eighty two percent of Houston's running back rushes in a respectable seven percent target chair. The Texans face the Jags this week too, which is a much easier matchup than what they had last week. Jacksonville has been the fifth best matchup for running backs so far this year and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Jalen Warren may not go this week. That would really help Najie Harris become a bell cow in that offense, but Cordero Patterson could easily see some work too, especially as a pass catcher. Indianapolis has been a good matchup for running backs to start the year. They's seventh worst and the justin fantasy points allowed to the position. Pittsburgh's also have been a top five team and running back target share, So I would not be surprised at all if Cordero Patterson sees ten touches in this game. That's as long as Jalen Warren is out. A wide receiver in this tier. I'm interested to see how Carolina deploys their wide receivers with Adam Thielen out. My guess is that Jonathan Mingo takes on a lot of the slot work. He actually played a lot of slot in college. But Xavier Legette he might get a little bit of run there too. Both are ok dart throws this week, and I'm talking more desperation. But whoever ends up on the outside, which in my opinion, that's probably gonna be Laget, That player could have an easier time here in Week four would adjusted for opponent. Cincinnati has seen wide receiver targets go to the slot at a bottom five rate this year. This could be a Deontay Johnson game for sure. Don't be surprised if he has like a thirty thirty five percent target share, But I think another Panthers pass catcher might get involved. I'd say it's Lagett over Mingo given deployment, but we don't have all the information that we need yet. I'm also gonna go back to Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch this week. Arizona's in a game against Washington, and as I talked about on the ten Trends episode, the Commanders have the worst secondary in football. They're the best matchup for wide receivers that you can find. They've seen a lot of production to the perimeter. So Michael Wilson, in my eyes, is the better play over Greg Dortsch. But Dortsch isn't a terrible look in deeper formats. The bottom line, you want a piece of this Arizona passing attack now. The Mario Douglas is the last wide receiver that I want to call out here. The Patriots finally use Douglas more in Week three. He saw a thirty eight percent target chair after being at thirteen percent and zero percent over his first two games. The forty nine Ers are probably gonna keep the Patriots scored down. They're not gonna score a lot of points, but the forty nine Ers are a team that's seen a decent chunk of their wide receiver targets go to the slot. This season. They're eleventh and adjusted slot rate allowed and for what it's worth. Thanks to some big plays, They've allowed the highest yards per route run to slot wideouts, so Douglas is interesting and a possible negative game script against the forty nine ers at tight end in this tier. I think looking at Tucker Craft might work. We saw him get more run than Luke Musgrave the last time we saw Jordan Love play, which is back in Week one, and Minnesota ranks ninth and adjusted target share surrendered to tight ends. They're also fifth and adjusted points a lot to the position. It's risky because we don't know exactly how the Packers want to run their tight ends. It might change weekly, but he does make some sense logically now. The last sleeper this week is Tommy Tremble. He ran around on seventy seven percent of Andy Dalton's dropbacks last week, and while that led to just a nine percent target share, there's a chance that Adam Thielen's injury allows for that shared or rise. This is really just a play on the fact that he got some good run last week and the Bengals aren't an overly scary matchup. He's a pretty deep play, though, as for a defensive stream, it's not an easy week. I said it earlier in the week that I think that Vegas works against Cleveland. I still think that's true. That game is a thirty seven point total, and Cleveland's been the best matchup for opposing defenses this year. I also don't mind New Orleans against Atlanta and then Tennessee against Miami given that quarterback situation for the Dolphins. But again, it's not an easy week for streaming defenses. Lastly, let's do some pick coms over on underdog. It's been a tough start to the season because scoring has just been down so much across the league. And I'm only looking at the optimistic side of these picks because I'm using guys from this sleeper show and I'm looking at them favorably. But let's keep riding. The first one is higher than one hundred and seventy two and a half passing yards for Justin Fields. He's only been above that mark once this year, but Indy's a good matchup and Indy plays with some pace. Next, I'm gonna go higher than thirty four and a half receiving yards for Wandell Robinson. He could be targeted at a decently high rate given the matchup, and then lastly, we'll go with a long shot. We'll say that Josh Downs finds the end zone. Like I said, I like his slot matchup too against Pittsburgh. You guys can use those picks or not use those picks, whatever you want to do over on Underdog, But if you do use them, make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round because you'll get those offers that I talked about earlier on the show, including that deposit bonus. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. As usual, I'll have the Mailbag episode out tomorrow morning, and then a Late Round Perspectives episode a little bit after that. Take care,