Late-Round Perspectives: Ryan McDowell

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Ryan McDowell is a Dynasty writer, commissioner, and podcaster who co owns Dynasty League Football. He's the architect of the productive struggle strategy in Dynasty.

00:00:09
Speaker 2: He's a longtime.

00:00:10
Speaker 1: Teacher, he's a dad, and he loves the University of Kentucky. These are his Late Round perspectives. Are you of the belief that the off season is better than end season as a fantasy analyst?

00:00:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. I think so.

00:00:37
Speaker 4: I mean you get the you get the fun stuff, right, you get the free agency in the draft, but you also just get to relax a little bit more than the season grind. So yeah, for Dynasty guys, I think the off season is where it's at.

00:00:52
Speaker 2: It's not as monotonous at least, you know, Like I mean, this is my.

00:00:55
Speaker 1: First this is my first perspective's episode of the of the off season, so I haven't a precises episode for a while now, and of course got to bring on my my Dynasty one oh one here and Ryan McDowell. But uh oh man, yeah, man, it's uh, it's just it's such a monotonous, you know, grind in season.

00:01:14
Speaker 2: I'm not complaining about it. I don't think anyone is complaining about it, but.

00:01:17
Speaker 1: It's nice to get a little creative and do stuff that you don't get to do all the time. And we have this like two to three month period where we're not only like fixing our dynasty rosters and stuff, which is fun, but also uh, you know, the scouting stuff, the prospecting stuff's a lot of fun too.

00:01:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure.

00:01:34
Speaker 4: Uh my wife says, you know, really when we have a busy schedule, my wife says, every day has a name, right, like, and that's what it's like in the regular season.

00:01:43
Speaker 3: Every day has a name.

00:01:45
Speaker 4: It's you know, you're watching games, or it's waiver day, or it's, uh, you know, it's podcast day or whatever it might be.

00:01:52
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's just nice to get out of that.

00:01:55
Speaker 4: The prospect stuff, as you said, brings you know, like like a whole sense of of newness too, you know, to the hobby, to the game. So a good little refresh there.

00:02:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt, no doubt.

00:02:09
Speaker 1: So look, I like to I like to open these shows up by just kind of talking about you the person, the analyst, but your journey and how you got to I mean, you've been around as long as I've been around with this stuff. But I think you've been around longer than I've been around, you know, with the fantasy football stuff. So tell people you know what you're all about. How you got the DLF all that good stuff.

00:02:32
Speaker 3: Sure. Sure, So, uh, let's see.

00:02:34
Speaker 4: I started playing Dynasty, really started playing playing fantasy in like five, four oh five something like that. A work buddy got me into it. I'd never played Fantasy Dynasty. I played Dynasty. A Dynasty League was my first league. So I really kind of got baptism by fire a little bit and fell in love with it immediately. You know, for me, it was just really I'm like aggressively active in everything I did, you know, whether it was just of course, it started out in this one league that my friend got me in, and I was sending trade offers all the time, Like yeah, maybe maybe it was more annoyingly active than aggressively active, or maybe more from one to the other. But I just kind of felt like I climbed the ladder from there, and you know, I found I mean again, we're talking early two thousands. I found message boards. I found the Football Guy's message board, basically became one of the more active members there and having conversations and building relationships and doing that that kind of stuff every day, I mean throughout the off season and everything. And then Twitter was really the game changer for me. Just kind of carried that community building idea over to Twitter, and eventually that led to the guys at DLF reaching out and asking if I was interested in writing. I'd done a little bit of writing, I'd done some stuff for Sigmund Bloom over at football guys, just I mean, like not even paid content.

00:04:10
Speaker 3: Just very very low level stuff. So I don't know, I wouldn't.

00:04:15
Speaker 4: I didn't feel like it was something I was seeking out necessarily as far as getting into the content.

00:04:21
Speaker 3: Creation space, I was.

00:04:22
Speaker 4: I was actually, it feels funny to think about this now, I was actually nervous that I would be able to come up with enough ideas to write about. And years later, yeah, exactly is there enough content or am I creative enough to think of something to even write about? And you know that that wasn't really a problem once once I got started.

00:04:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was.

00:04:49
Speaker 4: That was twenty twelve when they brought me on so and have been there ever since. Kind of club the ladder there was again super active. That was I was one of the first paid writers that DLF brought on. That was right about the time that they moved to a subscription model like so many other sites, did you know, ten or twelve years ago? So yeah, you know, it kind of just fell in my lap. But at the same time, I worked hard for it, right, Like I mean, I felt like I was always doing Fantasy Dynasty.

00:05:27
Speaker 3: Stuff, yeah, for the past decade plus.

00:05:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, well, not only that, I don't think people realize that you have a job too, Like this isn't You're not just strictly doing the DLF stuff. I mean, you have been a teacher for have you just been teaching since college? Just out of college, that's what you did.

00:05:44
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yep, started teaching in nineteen ninety nine. Yeah, I'm still teaching at the same school. I've been at the same school ever since. You know, if things go well, I've got a little over a year left and I can actually retire and then we'll, you know, we'll see what happens with the Fantasy football space.

00:06:02
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's funny.

00:06:04
Speaker 4: So again, at DLF, I start out as one of the four or five new writers that they brought on the first time they had ever hired writers and over the years just worked my way up.

00:06:16
Speaker 3: Right, we have a senior writer status.

00:06:18
Speaker 4: I accomplished that, and they created a I think they called it a team lead role or something basically kind of gave me a new title, and eventually, after about a decade, got an ownership stake at DLF. And I remember, and this is maybe it wasn't ten years this is probably four or five, six years ago at this point, but I remember they announced that on Twitter and kind of made a big deal about it, which was nice and lots of congratulations and kind words and things, but a lot of the comments were like, oh, I thought you started DLF or I thought you already owned DLF. So that was funny to see. But yeah, you're right, a lot of people, a lot of people just assume this is my full time gig. Sometimes it certainly feels like it, with the the hours I put in. You know, let's let's just say after work, uh yeah, you maybe exactly exactly, No, I mean one o'clock on a Wednesday exactly.

00:07:22
Speaker 1: To be fair, though, to be fair, like I do think that your yourself, your brand you're being is very much so synonymous with d LF at this point, not only because of long evity, which, by the way, you being at the same school and being at DLF all this time, you are like mister loyalty, my god like you. You've you you have found your your spots and you stick with them, and it's it's that's really good to see it. Bean's great to see because it's not easy to find that, you know, especially in today's business world and and and job world, where people are understandably moving around because if they don't feel comfortable, then then do it, you know. But it's nice to see the opposite end of that where uh, you know, you can stick around the same spot and enjoy it and get fulfillment from that, you know, with both of these gigs that you've had. Now you you mentioned that you started in Dynasty basically as you got into fantasy football, which is not the normal path. I've always said, this is sort of a this is sort of like a business take from my perspective too. But as the fantasy football industry matures, you find people more and more obviously kind of going down that marketing funnel and that playing funnel, if you will, going from Okay, I'm gonna join my office league to oh, I really like this. You know it's gonna you're gonna lose some people along the way, But this is people that are very into this that then get into Dynasty, that then get into Debi and they just get more and more into this game that we all love. But you starting from a Dynasty perspective is way different than almost anyone that has hopped on perspectives in the past.

00:08:50
Speaker 2: So what do you think? And obviously I know you know, you and I.

00:08:53
Speaker 1: Have played in dozens and dozens of leagues together through the years. You know, I know that that you play a lot of Dynasty, but you know you play a Redraft two.

00:09:01
Speaker 2: But what is it.

00:09:02
Speaker 1: That makes you like Dynasty more than Redraft? What makes it a better game?

00:09:07
Speaker 2: And if someone's thinking about making that switch, what do you think the selling points are?

00:09:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, I always say it's like in this time of the year is really the perfect time to figure it out. Right, if if your fantasy football season and your work league, your home league, family league, whatever it might be, if that ends and you miss it, right, if it's like Week seventeen or the playoffs are rolling around, you're and you're missing the idea of setting a lineup or checking scores, you probably need to try out Dynasty, Like that's that's kind of your calling, I think. But for me, it's just it's just the year round aspect I love because well, I didn't necessarily have that experience because again started with Dynasty, so I didn't. I didn't know there was any other way. But once the season ended and you know it's January February, you're enjoying the playoffs, but you're also looking ahead to those rookies, or you're thinking about the big free agent signings or what have you.

00:10:07
Speaker 3: Those are things I enjoyed.

00:10:08
Speaker 4: And you know, you and I and so many others grew up playing Madden or playing all these these video games where you know, I didn't even play the game really right, Like just send them to the offseason, sign the free agents, make the trades, do the drafts.

00:10:22
Speaker 3: That was that was always.

00:10:24
Speaker 4: More enjoyable, uh for me, And and you know, in a lot of ways, that's what dynasty is. So you know, I think those are certainly good things about it, just the year round piece of it.

00:10:35
Speaker 3: I really like the idea of.

00:10:37
Speaker 4: Dynasty managers just having different goals, right your your team is in a different spot, and it can be enjoyable to tear down that team and totally rebuild from scratch. That that can be a fun process in uh, inside of the game. And and obviously that probably means you're not winning for a year or maybe two years, but again, that can that can be fun. And that's of course not something you had ever wanted to do. In a redraft league. You would never want to lose or want to, you know, trade your best players for futures or whatever, you know, young guys and proven guys, whatever it might be.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: You know, I've been playing Dynasty probably for about ten years or so now, and I'd say about three or four years in was when I really beefed it up and played more. And I remember I wasn't maybe it was only a couple of years in, but you know, you and I were doing drafts together, and I remember always seeing your your productive struggle approach to drafts and always saying to myself, like, I don't because look, I think a lot of people when they're not super super into Dynasty, they don't think enough about asset valuation as opposed to just general just straight up production. And it's very easy to think about things in more of a mathematic way instead of looking at it in a more logic.

00:11:54
Speaker 2: Game theory driven way, right.

00:11:56
Speaker 1: And so what I mean by that is I remember back in like twenty six teen, twenty seventeen. Please don't google this article, but I remember I wrote an article looking at the true value of draft picks, right, like, looking at like what the actual like point per game output you you would expect to get from a one oh one, one oh two, one oh three, et cetera. And I remember looking at it and I'm like, oh, yeah, one oh three is sort of like Doug Baldwin and stuff like that, but like it's that that's not the proper way to think about that stuff. And I credit you just through me playing a lot, right and like seeing things and just experimenting with things, really opening my eyes to just seeing that side of things. And now I always preach the idea of your team needs to have both a production side of it, right, because you need to eventually win. You can't just accumulate the value side, but the value side is the other side, right, Like you need to have in the market. You need to have these pieces on your team that are accumulating value, even if those guys aren't necessarily the ones that are giving you insane production. And so, you know, I say this because you've made me a better Dynasty player, coming from a redraft perspective, more so a redraft perspective. You know, that's where I got my start with all this stuff. But from your perspective, what has helped you in Dynasty then become a better redraft player? Because look, right now I'm working on the prospect Guide, trying to get that out the door, and there's plenty of people who are like, oh, I don't need the prospect guy because I don't play Dynasty. And look, I'm not saying all this just to sell my prospect Guide. I'm saying this because you know, I'm just I want to hear your thoughts on what Dynasty has done for your redraft game, not just you know how you play Dynasty and how good you are at Dynasty.

00:13:40
Speaker 4: Well, I mean you mentioned the prospects, and I do think that's kind of the obvious, and that's that's the right answer for me, is that you're able to get in on some of those younger players, typically rookies. You're just more aware of them, you know more about them, their situation there, they're upside. So yeah, if you look at my I you know, my Scott Fishball roster every year, it's it's littered with rookies, and that has helped. But you know that's like a blessing and a curse kind of deal, right, I Mean, we always always feel like my dynasty is showing on my on my redraft rosters that were slanting a little a little too far towards those those rookies and those young guys. But I mean, we've we've typically seen across the across all four positions, we've seen the average age of top twelve and top twenty four scores. Those players are getting younger every year we're not. I mean, right like the third year breakout wide receiver feels like I mean, it's it doesn't even feel like ten years old. It feels like a hundred years ago that that was even discussed. And obviously we've always kind of been able to count on rookie running backs to some degree, but rookie quarterbacks, rookie tight ends are making an impact earlier and more often than ever before. So I think just playing dynasty and shifting that uh, that information, that knowledge over to redraft can certainly be beneficial in scoping out those young guys. You just you just got to keep the you know, keep the perspective, remember that it is just a one year game when you're drafting that team. I'm talking to myself.

00:15:22
Speaker 3: Here because.

00:15:24
Speaker 4: I've got half a team of rookies on my redraft teams every year.

00:15:28
Speaker 1: I mean, look, historically, rookies have have been pretty decent draft picks versus the market, at least in redraft. So you know, you're not you're not totally you know, going crazy by by taking all those first year guys. But yeah, you know, I always try to like sell the prospects stuff as like you know you can you're gonna know who the higher end guys generally are in a draft, like like the layman is going to know who those guys are. And you know, a lot of times this is something that I'm kind of work shopping and thinking about. But like, you know, a lot of times I'll say, like in my pro or in my draft guide rather for for season long, I'll sit there and I'll say, hey, draft rookies late, you know, throw those darts because they will hit, like some rookie will hit. We didn't have as many this year, but some of them will hit. And so you know, I have someone like Jayalen McMillan as a late round dart thrower or whoever. Sometimes they really really hit, like Puuka and Akua. But you know, Jaylee McMillan is a great example where you know he doesn't hit right away, you get the Chris Godwin injury. He's still not really hitting even after the Godwin injury, and then eventually things kind of come full circle for him. And I say, I'm work shopping this a little bit, because I do think that there's something too, especially.

00:16:31
Speaker 2: In a more casual league, not really going.

00:16:34
Speaker 1: After those guys aggressively in your draft, but just making sure that you're ready for them on the waiver wire when those times sort of arise. But that's the point too, is that having the understanding of these prospects in the middle of the season, because whether you have a guide you don't doesn't.

00:16:50
Speaker 2: Have to be my guide. It can be any It could be listening to Ryan, it could be whatever.

00:16:53
Speaker 1: Having the knowledge of these prospects that were Day two, Day three guys when they inevitably one of them gets some sort of opportunity is really really helpful for them knowing how much free agent budget to spend or whether you should be aggressive and using a waiver.

00:17:09
Speaker 2: Priority on those players.

00:17:10
Speaker 1: And I think that gets lost a lot where people just kind of section off and silo these two different games, as this does not play off of this one. But at the end of the day, man, these guys are just We're just trying to get guys who score Fantasy points, you know, and having as much knowledge as possible is always always a big plus. This episode is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. The Big Game is this weekend, and Underdog has you covered. Underdog celebrating the Big Game by giving everyone a no sweat entry that means you either cash in or you get your entry freeback and bonus credit joint Underdog before the Big Game kicks off on Sunday by signing up with promo code Late Round to get up to one thousand dollars in bonus cash when you make your first deposit and you get a free pick and you get that no sweat entry. Check it all out today Underdog Fantasy. For you personally, what do you think has been the biggest edge for you in Dynasty? Again, you and I have played in plenty of leagues together. You and I have seen each other in championships in Dynasty through the years. What do you think has been your edge in order to get there consistently?

00:18:18
Speaker 4: I really think it goes back to that activity level, like a lot of times, and you know, I guess take this however you want. I feel like I just care more than other people, and you know it's higher on my priority list. I'm putting more time into building my team into that kind of daily monitoring, which might just be you know, reading Rota World blurbs or reading Twitter timeline or whatever, sending those trade off ers, checking the waiver wire.

00:18:46
Speaker 3: Like as far as success.

00:18:48
Speaker 4: In Dynasty, I don't I mean, I'm I'm not a scout. I don't have the spreadsheets, you know, like like some people at least not the not the in depth spreadsheets. But I think I think that's you know, that's what it is for me, just being being so active and trying to beat everybody else in in that way.

00:19:11
Speaker 1: I think that one thing that I've found with you too, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, I think that you have a really really good pulse on the market and understanding you know when to when to let a guy go, when to buy into a guy, just based on you know, ADP trends. And do you think some of that is you managing a lot of that stuff or like having done so much of that stuff in your in your history.

00:19:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure.

00:19:35
Speaker 4: So I mean I remember again going back to twenty twelve, I mean I certainly recognized even then the importance of ADP.

00:19:44
Speaker 3: I mean, every time I, you know.

00:19:47
Speaker 4: Did a did a startup draft, I was looking for ADP. It's it's so easy to get now. And I mean some of your listeners will think this is crazy, but back then, this was not This was not read available information in any way. I mean a lot of ways you were going going in blind to dynasty startup drafts. And I remember Mike Clay had done I had run a handful of.

00:20:14
Speaker 3: Mock drafts to collect ADP.

00:20:16
Speaker 4: I think he was with BFF at that point, and it was wild to me that you could ask somebody to do a twenty round you know, pretend draft essentially, and he had stopped doing that, and maybe that was just for one project he was doing. I reached out once I started DLF, I reached out to Mike and you know, kind of said do you care if I pick this up? And obviously got his blessing there. And I've been doing ADP mock drafts every single month, including in season, since since late in the twenty twelve late in the twenty twelve season, So yeah, I feel like I'm pretty pretty up to date on those value you trends, and I think that's a huge piece of it. Used to and you'll like, this will just make you go crazy, but probably for the first four or five years that I collected that ADP, it was manual, manually entering the every single draft position into a spreadsheet. I think Scott Fish finally showed me how to how to save some time there and that was that was much appreciated. But yeah, I really knew that the numbers in and out back then and in the early years when I was typing every single one of them, but even you know, even since then doing those drafts, participating in every single one of them. Yeah, I feel like I do have a good sense of the the ADP and the trade market, the value over all of these players. And again that just goes back to being active as well. You don't have to do every single mock every month, but checking out that information, understanding how the value is changing and how it changes so quickly.

00:22:06
Speaker 3: I mean we've got you know, we we.

00:22:08
Speaker 4: Of course love what we do over at DLF and when we like the consistency of it and the historical the historical data we have to offer. But you know, uh, keep trading cut is an awesome resource and uh you know, they they're able to kind of pick up the slack on things that we can't or uh you know, honestly just can't do, and that they're getting there, they're getting that information updated.

00:22:31
Speaker 3: I was going to say daily probably you.

00:22:33
Speaker 4: Know hourly, Yeah, yeah, immediately, So you see some crazy value shifts there, and and that's always a good a good indication of the market of a player too.

00:22:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:22:45
Speaker 1: And that's the piece too, where like again, you being active anyone, being an active manager can really really be helpful because like for me, you know, I'll be doing my Dynasty rankings, you know, I update them once a month, and I'll be I'll be updating them and then after I'm done updating, I'll can heir them to different markets and stuff, and I'm like, WHOA, I had no clue that this player was being valued in this way, and so it's it's it's important to be on top of the market component piece of it. And I feel like you've you've definitely always, you know, had that as part of your arsenal with other dynasty managers, though what have you seen through the years that they just get consistently wrong, that they do wrong and incorrectly.

00:23:23
Speaker 4: I think it's really easy to get stuck in the middle of your dynasty league, right And.

00:23:29
Speaker 3: You know, there's a there's.

00:23:31
Speaker 4: A Bible verse that basically says be hot or cold, but don't be lukewarm, and I mean, you know, so it's it's biblical. We should not be this lukewarm stuck in the middle, the sixth seed or the first team out of the playoffs, Like you either want to tank it, tank it and tear it down, or you know, trade for some players and go for it. But being stuck in the middle, the mindset is, you know, I'm one piece away, or let's wait until week ten and see what happens, and uh, and it's just too late at that point.

00:24:02
Speaker 2: So so basically, don't be the Mike Tomlin Steelers is what you're saying.

00:24:06
Speaker 4: Don't be the don't be the the eight and eight. Uh, you know that the Titans of old. Now now the Steelers are taking right, the Steelers have taken that that title now. Yeah, it's you know, it's it's great to say you made the playoffs every year for you know, ten straight years, fifteen straight years, but if you're getting bounced in the first round, it it doesn't feel that great.

00:24:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:24:29
Speaker 1: Let's get into let's get into some player talk and some player takes.

00:24:33
Speaker 2: Right now, Jade and Daniels.

00:24:35
Speaker 1: This was at least according to keep trade cut, Jade Daniels, And maybe this plays into what we were saying about like the immediate reaction stuff and why not with with ADP.

00:24:45
Speaker 3: Well, there's good and bad with that right there, there is.

00:24:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly. So Jane Daniels right now is ranked ahead of Lamar Jackson. That's that's all. Let's keep trade cut. I think you guys in your last ADP updates still had Lamar over Jane Daniels, but he's still just one spot away. Does that a surprise you? Do you think that that he should be in that position ahead of Lamar? Or is this a situation where you if you had Jane Daniels, you'd be you'd be playing a little bit more safe.

00:25:13
Speaker 4: I'm not surprised, I'll start there, certainly not surprised. I mean, that's you know, that's kind of one of the calling cards of Dynasty players is that we're we're going to chase youth, certainly going to chase productive youth as hard and fast as we can, right And I think actually I saw a tweet from KTC that he had even overtaken Josh Allen. So maybe Daniels maybe up to that top overall, top overall player in the in the Dynasty Superflex format. Well, we'll have to check on that, but regardless, he's in the conversation. No matter whose data you want to you want to go by. And I mean, we've just obviously got the consistency from Lamar Jackson. I mean, a top ten Fantasy season based on points per game in UH in six straight years, I believe, and top two of the past two years, of course, coming off his career best year this year, and he's twenty eight years old.

00:26:08
Speaker 3: So I mean, I love and always I do this.

00:26:11
Speaker 4: I recommend this buying years is what I refer to it as so if you've got Lamar Jackson at twenty eight years old, you've got Jade Daniels at twenty four years old, you can make some transaction there and maybe even get something back. Potentially you're buying four years back and getting similar production. So that's what you have to really decide. Is the production going to be similar? Lamar outscored him by three and a half four points a game this season.

00:26:41
Speaker 3: Is that a fluke? And that's the toughest thing.

00:26:44
Speaker 4: That's the toughest question I answer this time of year with guys like Daniels because we've seen it before.

00:26:49
Speaker 3: I mean, he looks like a surefire decade.

00:26:52
Speaker 4: Long right QB one Dynasty adset, But so did RG three and even this time last year, and they're not in the same category as far as accomplishments on the field.

00:27:07
Speaker 3: But this time last year we were talking.

00:27:09
Speaker 4: About Anthony Richardson as the top five Dynasty quarterback and now he's outside of our top fifteen.

00:27:15
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean.

00:27:16
Speaker 4: There's obviously risk. In the end, I'm still taking Lamar. I'm taking Lamar, I'm taking Josh Allen. I think it's fair to look at at Daniels over everyone else though, hurts. Yeah you know my homes anybody else you want to throw in there.

00:27:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had them. I think I might have them even in the same tier, but I still have some of that. Like whenever I tier my rankings and stuff, I'm looking at the market because it's important, Like I care what the markets saying about these players, because again that's the value side to the player equation, where of course you want production, but you still want to acquire as much value as possible in your team, and so that has to play into your the way that you're developing your rankings and who you would be okay with trading for and all that kind of stuff.

00:28:00
Speaker 2: On your on your team.

00:28:01
Speaker 1: The thing with with me with Daniels and I to me, super flex quarterbacks are always, to me the hardest, most difficult thing to figure out in Dynasty, just because quarterback is a relative crap shoot from a prospecting standpoint.

00:28:15
Speaker 2: It's not easy to get to get it right right.

00:28:18
Speaker 1: And then also it's just so unbelievable just in super flex it's like you either have them or you don't, right, It's there's there's not much between, you know, very rarely do we get these like Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield situations where uh, you know, they were kind of hovering there and then all you know, they shot up a little bit. Now they're more consistent. It just doesn't happen all that often. So you're either like like going down with a sinking ship with Anthony Richardson right now, or you're, uh, you know, you got lucky and you you drafted Jayden Daniels maybe even over like a Kayleb Williams or something like that. And so I see it with with Daniels as I still see the delta in terms of performance to be enough between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson because of the consistent like we've seen them do it over and over again and giving us that like like over what Jayden Daniels did this year, giving us that like again three four point advantage, that to me is enough to say I'd rather have them than take on the the the age gap right or and take on the age gap, I should say. So that's the main reason why why I would have them below those guys. But you got to at least play the market a little bit here, man. And if if the market is saying this is really similar like c J. Stroud last year.

00:29:29
Speaker 4: You know, c J.

00:29:29
Speaker 3: Stroud was a good point.

00:29:31
Speaker 1: I mean, he was moving up a ton, he was. He was in Josh Allen range at times on Keep Trade Cut and on other sites, and that was a little bit different to me because Stroud was a pocket patterer. Stroud was was not the dynamic, dual threat guy that Jayden Daniels is. So I think that the Jaden Daniels discussion is and not only that, but to me, Daniels is more accomplished after year one than what CJ.

00:29:53
Speaker 2: Stroud was. But that's why I think the Daniels discussion is a discussion that he should still belong at least in the the stratosphere of those guys because of the age factor.

00:30:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm totally with you.

00:30:03
Speaker 4: You talked about the importance of those dynasty tiers and in your rankings, and typically when I'm deciding if two players three players are in the same tier, I just try to have that conversation with myself. Is there any scenario where I would take this player.

00:30:21
Speaker 3: Over this player?

00:30:22
Speaker 1: You know?

00:30:22
Speaker 4: Is there any scenario where I would take Daniels over Lamar or over Josh Allen. Sure, yeah, there is. I mean, typically eighty ninety percent of the time I'm going to prefer the two veterans. But but yeah, there's a time would I would go with Daniels. You know, maybe if I'm going heavy with a young roster or what have you. So, yeah, I do think they because of that, I do think they belong in the same tier.

00:30:47
Speaker 1: I was also looking at DLFADP January ADP and the rookies outside of Daniels.

00:30:54
Speaker 2: You guys have it with ADP.

00:30:56
Speaker 1: I shouldn't say that, like, you know you're ranking them this way, because I'm going to ask you how you have them ranked. But it was Bonix, then Caleb Williams, than Drake May. Now, look, I'm not the biggest rankings guy in the world because I think there's a lot of nuance to this, right, Like, we're looking at this in a very linear way.

00:31:10
Speaker 2: There's a very real chance that those three are.

00:31:12
Speaker 1: Really clumped together and there's a big tier break aft whatever. Right, But I'm curious about your thoughts on the rest of this rookie class from last year, really really good rookie class, where you would have them ranked, especially now that Kayleb Williams has Ben Johnson Drake May as a new head coach and new coordinator up in New England. Do you still would you agree with that ADP or do you have them mixed up in a different order.

00:31:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got them in a different order.

00:31:35
Speaker 4: There is actually a pretty sizable gap in our ADP between the three of them, So you're looking at about about a round a full round or more between each guy, not necessarily close. I've still got Caleb as the top guy of those three, you know, I think obviously some frustrations as a rookie, but a lot of understandable issue, you know, to to blame that on not fully in his control. And I mean, I think we're going to see a big Ben Jonson effect that Caleb o'doonsay, DJ Moore, all these guys see a big spike in value. Whether you're talking DLFADP or you know, Best Ball drafts or what have you. I think we're going to see these guys be risers over the next few weeks after that hiring.

00:32:23
Speaker 1: Do you find that there is still a lag with that? Because people are wanting to see how other people are reacting to news items like that, so obviously, you know, the Bears get rid of their coaching staff. They hire Ben Johnson, the hottest ticket item in this coaching carousel, and an offensive minded coach who's done marvelous things in Detroit, just crazy good things in Detroit. Now, obviously that would mean good things for the Chicago players there. But from your perspective, as someone who has handled ADP for the last ten plus years, do you find that there is still a window after these hires happen where you know, you could have gone out, like let's just say Benji and got hired yesterday, you could have gone out and traded for Kayleb Williams or Romadounza and still gotten a relatively decent discount on those guys before like the inevitable, Like, do you think that they're still going to rise over the next month from now moving forward, or do you think that that's already happened almost immediately.

00:33:17
Speaker 3: I think it happens immediately.

00:33:19
Speaker 4: I mean it's not always reflective immediately in our data, right, I mean we're collecting this data once a month, you know, those those mock drafts typically take a week to ten days, and sometimes things like hiring a new coach, or an injury or you know, whatever might happen a draft pick in the spring. Those things kind of get lost in the shuffle and you wait until the next month to really see an impact in our data. Now again, we've got other resources, and I think I don't think you should be looking at any any of those individual resources as kind of the end all be all.

00:33:57
Speaker 3: You know, if you're relying one hundred.

00:34:00
Speaker 4: Sent on ktc ADP, then you know, you could get yourself in trouble. You could end up paying overpaying for kind of the flavor of the week, right. I mean, we've seen plenty of players, especially in season, their value spike and then a few weeks later they're not even getting on the field, or they're they're heard or whatever. So I you know, I think take you take our stuff, you take their stuff, you take your stuff, mix it all together and come up with a player value and decide how you want to react to that.

00:34:31
Speaker 1: Okay, so sorry I interrupted you, Sue Caleb Williams. First out of those three, then how do you have Bo Nix and Drake May?

00:34:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got Nix and then May. So that that does you know? For I think for most people that would reflect a change. I obviously had May as my QB three pre season or during the off season. Nixt I mean totally surprised me. But he you know, he's tied to Sean Payton, basically all three of those guys, I'm sorry, not Kayleb, but Nicks, May and then even Jaden Daniels. To see them perform at such a high level with limited weapons, it really kind of gives you hope for the future, right Like Daniels did so well with pretty much just Terry McLaurin. Like, let's give him a high upside wide receiver to give Drake May, any anybody really just any other offensive threat on that team, and then pair, you know, pair another wide receiver with Courtland Sutton there in Denver, and it feels like there's a lot of meat on the bone for all those rookie quarterbacks.

00:35:35
Speaker 1: I think that's the reason why, because right now I have Drake May actually above the other two, and a lot of it is a lot of it's just driven by what you were just saying, Like, I think he worked with by far the least of those three last year and showed off, you know, at least at least had dual threat abilities there. We know that he's also young on the younger side, and that's the main reason. But I think all three, if you were for especially if you were able to get oh Nicks and rookie drafts last year, you're feeling pretty good right now in super Flex, especially because now he's a he's a slam dunk, you know, easy like QB one type piece for you that that you should be able to move forward with and not have to worry about that position, which is one of the nicest things to have in super Flex, to not have to really worry about one of those quarterback spots.

00:36:20
Speaker 4: I just think the you know, we've heard a lot about this. I know we're going to talk prospects a little bit and a few, but we've heard a lot about how poor this quarterback class is, and you know, the two guys at the top. Potentially, I think that realization of there's not much coming as far as rookie quarterbacks, I think we could see a value boost for May and especially for May, but really for all those rookie quarterbacks from last year, once we realized kind of what we had and and really just how impressive they were with limited limited weapons.

00:36:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, for sure.

00:36:55
Speaker 1: But speaking of the prospects we we have, you know, I haven't done at all the full loan stuff with my prospecting work. I usually wait to really dig in once we get the official NFL Combine invite list, which comes later and later every year, frustratingly. You know, I've done some work though, I've looked at you know, I look at NFL mock draft database a lot to just see where guys are projected.

00:37:18
Speaker 2: To go and whatnot.

00:37:20
Speaker 1: And the running back class from the fifteen or so guys that I've been put into my prospect model, the running back class looks great, like.

00:37:28
Speaker 2: Like really really strong players across the board.

00:37:31
Speaker 1: So my question to you is that now that we're in this time period in the NFL calendar where the draft, we're basically waiting for free agency.

00:37:40
Speaker 2: In the draft, free agency doesn't hit until March. The draft hits late April, are you.

00:37:44
Speaker 1: At a point where you think that because people expect there to be these good running backs, maybe we could get a discount on some existing running backs and backfields. Or are you just kind of backing off and saying I'm not going to mess with these backfields because I know that there's going to be ten to twelve, maybe like pretty strong backs who could step in and kind of cause disruption to an already established backfield. So if I go and trade for one of those veterans, that veteran could be screwed. Right are you are you typically playing it safe right now this time of year or are you being aggressive and trying to find you know? Because sometimes like I remember Atlanta a few or handful of years ago when they had Mike Davis.

00:38:26
Speaker 2: Right, not to say that Mike Davis.

00:38:28
Speaker 1: Was good, right, but everyone just automatically expected Atlanta to go out and get a running back in the draft.

00:38:34
Speaker 2: They didn't.

00:38:35
Speaker 1: Mike Davis was their guy, right. And I'm not saying that Mike Davis was a great fantasy acid. He was horrible, But you got that value boost from him from right for the draft to after the draft. So you can gain value just by doing that and then saying, oh, wow, I don't want Mike Davis on my team, so I'm going to trade him away now when people think that he's the assumed starter.

00:38:54
Speaker 2: So how are you handling that?

00:38:55
Speaker 1: Is it just case by case for you, or is it something that you aggressively kind of do or don't do well.

00:39:01
Speaker 3: I would say I've changed over the years.

00:39:03
Speaker 4: I mean, I think we saw so much volatility at the running back position, you know, from year to year, including over the off season, through draft, through free agency and things years ago, that the way I handled it was basically ignore running backs for as much of the offseason as you can. Stay away from them, don't buy, don't invest, And that mindset kind of seemed to become pretty prevalent among dynasty managers. Eventually, it just became a value that Okay, you know they're cheap enough that you know, I'm willing to take that risk even if they do lose their job. I'm flipping you know, I'm flipping third round rookie picks for possible starters here, or I'm taking these guys in the tenth, twelfth, fifteenth round of a startup draft.

00:39:51
Speaker 3: The risk is simply worth it.

00:39:53
Speaker 4: So this year is certainly one of those years that makes you, no matter what your mind'st that is on that it makes you rethink it because of what you're talking about. I mean, I saw one scouts say there were thirty draftable running backs this year, which is which is wild So almost no matter how good you feel about the depth chart of any NFL team, they're potentially adding a running back. There's a few that I think are either safe or the upside is well worth it, you know, the juice is worth the squeeze that I would still be targeting. I think Chuba Hubbard is it exciting, which is maybe the first time this has been said, an exciting dynasty target right now? Right, I mean, we already saw Carolina invest in the running back position. He essentially overcame that. Unfortunately, through the help of the injury to Jonathan Brooks, Hubber gets rewarded with a new deal. This is a team that has a ton of needs. I can't imagine that they're drafting a running back right signing around. Maybe they sign one, right, I mean, maybe they had some depth if they're if they're really worried about Brooks, which they probably should be, but like, that's that's Cuba Hoverag's job. I'm not worried about him losing that in free agency or in the draft. He would and he's still he's still super affordable, so he would be a player RB twenty two and eighty one overall in our ADP right now. He would be a player that I would be targeting in drafts or trades right now. You know, there's a couple of others, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon veterans that I think their team could could definitely draft a running back, but I also think their upside on a short term is worth it.

00:41:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.

00:41:41
Speaker 1: Another team that I was thinking about because I just did a bi candidate's episode for the lay Round podcast and one player that admittedly I almost talked about, I didn't because I didn't have enough fluctuation and there wasn't a big enough delta between where I had him ranked and where sort of the market had him ranked.

00:41:57
Speaker 2: But it was Travis Etn right where.

00:41:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know Etn down year, frustrating year, but we know the talents there, we've seen it. The reason why I felt good was the Liam Cohen higher of course, and what he was able to do with that backfield in Tampa Bay, and you know the offensive creativity that he could bring. But also they have Tank Biggsby, and I don't know if they're going to be a team that would go after like why would they necessarily unless they're thinking more longer term, which is very possible. But you know, they might be a team that at least in the day one, day two, you know, wouldn't necessarily be aggressive and going after running back. Are there any teams though out there that might surprise you that could go after a back? I mean I saw ash and Genty get uh, he got Scott, he got mocked Atlanta, Yeah, and Alans Airline recent mocked to the Jets, where I would be shocked out of my mind if that happened.

00:42:55
Speaker 2: But Lances is tapped in.

00:42:57
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not just like a random person that's putting together a mock draft, right, and so like there could be like this class is that good that there could be that kind of disruption out of nowhere where we're like, oh, they have Breece Hall, and they have Braylen Allen, they have Isaiah Davis.

00:43:12
Speaker 2: I think the Jets would be nuts if that ended up happening.

00:43:15
Speaker 1: But is there a team out there where you could see a little bit of a surprise where we're like, Okay, they're feeling pretty comfortable or running back, or we think they are, and then all of a sudden they go after one on day two?

00:43:25
Speaker 2: Because this class is looking so good.

00:43:27
Speaker 3: I mean, there's a bunch.

00:43:28
Speaker 4: Honestly, there's probably a ten or twelve that look like they have established starters. But I think it wouldn't be surprised, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if they if they drafted a Day two running back. There's so many factors to really think about, you know. We I think we look at the depth chart, right we look at the at the Jets depth chart, and we see Hall, and we see Alan and Davis, a couple of rookies who had had some success last year, and we you know, we crossed them off the list. But you're still thinking about a new coaching staff. Breisse Hall, as highly as he's valued in Dynasty, Zerline pointed out in his ride up, has never had a thousand rushing yards, has dealt with injuries. I mean, it would still be very shocking, I think, even after he's kind of put that out there. But you know, we've seen crazier things. Just a few days after the big NBA trade, right exactly, we shouldn't be we shouldn't be surprised by anything at this point. But the Titans, the Titans were one that I think could make a move you know, and they're a team that has a couple of running backs already and Pollard and Tyja Spears. That would be a team that I could see drafting a running back that would be a surprise. And Pollard, I think, probably has one more year there and they have an out on his deal that they could move on. Spears obviously a pretty messy injury history, and he's been in and out of the lineup for them as well. So but like I said, there's a time, I mean, the forty nine ers have to do something, the Giants, the Dolphins have to add somebody. So, you know, guys like Cha and guys like Isaiah Pacheco in Kansas City, they're going to get a new teammate, right, They're going to get a new some new backfield competition and and just the level of investment there will really tell us how we need to how we need to value the veterans moving forward.

00:45:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, the other thing that I've thought about because I'm in the process of sort of putting together the year two profiles that I do because I have the year two model that looks at at sophomores in the NFL, right, and guys who just completed their rookie season.

00:45:41
Speaker 2: Not only did that running back, the running back.

00:45:43
Speaker 1: Class from last year is like the worst one that that model has seen over the last since twenty eleven, which is what it dates back to. It's that because even what year was it the twenty fourteen class with like Jeremy Hill, and but even that class had at least a like like this one as Bucky get it, like Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy had a good year. But we it's always fragile when you're talking about a Day three running back being the top running backs in a class, right, and it's scary you even mentioned the Giants. I think the Giants are a prime candidate to draft a running back this year. And so I'm looking at it as maybe it's not even so much the super high end backs, the Breisee Halls, even to your point, the Joe Mixons and the Josh Jacobs that take a big hit, but more so like the Isaac Grendo's, the ones that we you know, kind of thought, oh, maybe they could be the equivalent value of like a second rounder and rookie rookie pick or something like that, but they're just toast after what happens in this year's draft potentially right the the You know, I think that the Bills will keep things the way they have it, and Ray Davis will probably be safe, but maybe they go they go and add someone else and they think longer term because because James Cook's rookies rookie deal is about the end. You know, there's just a lot of those scenarios out there where you know, Jalen Wright, you know, you mentioned the Dolphins, Like Jalen Wright is sitting there where it's like, Okay, is he going to be the RB two or is he not going to be the RB two.

00:47:09
Speaker 2: I'm not saying either way.

00:47:10
Speaker 1: I'm just saying I think that people should be thinking about not just the starters in these situations, but these depth pieces that one million percent are fragile and in these really, really bad places.

00:47:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally agree. I do a series at DLF.

00:47:24
Speaker 4: I'm kind of in the middle of it right now, just called Landscape, basically looking at depth charts. You know, we've so we've got all the RB ones listed, all the RB twos, and there's some some pretty obvious gaps on each line there. But you know, you look at look at a situation like Chase Brown and Cincinnati had a had an awesome breakout season, but they have they have nothing behind him, Like.

00:47:49
Speaker 3: They're adding a running back.

00:47:51
Speaker 4: And if you've got Chase Brown on your roster, you're just hoping it's like a fourth round, you know, goal line type back or something like that, because if they if they draft you know, if they draft Juggins in round at the end of round two, Chase Brown's value is destroyed almost right right, it's at least even if it's not even if it's not gone, it's at least in a state of confusion.

00:48:18
Speaker 3: I mean, I remember you.

00:48:19
Speaker 4: Go back a couple of years ago and a group of us at DLF always get together in random cities across the country to watch the NFL Draft. So we're we're hanging out all weekend. We're responding, you know, kind of in real time to all these picks, and Seattle on Day two takes Zach Charbonay, who was viewed as kind of the the top two or three back in that class, and it was immediately viewed as by us and pretty much everybody else, as a negative for Kenneth Walker. And of course, you know, we kind of know how that's worked out. Charbonay hasn't done much outside of some injury replacement games, and Walker has has mostly been and when.

00:49:00
Speaker 3: He's been on the field. But that's kind of the default.

00:49:03
Speaker 4: So if they draft, if the Bengals draft Judkins on Day two, we're gonna look at it as a negative thing for Chase Brown. And then you get to decide if you want to buy a low on Chase Brown or or just stay away.

00:49:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of situation.

00:49:19
Speaker 1: This is where, in my opinion, it's the most difficult but also could be the.

00:49:23
Speaker 2: Most fruitful for your dynasty teams.

00:49:25
Speaker 1: Like right right now, I called so, so the Steelers are in a position where Naji Harris is likely you know, he's a free agent.

00:49:31
Speaker 2: Who knows that. I don't think that they're not gonna necessarily go and resign him.

00:49:34
Speaker 1: But maybe they don't. Maybe maybe they maybe they want Naji Harris. I just don't think it's gonna happen. So that leaves Jalen Warren is a restricted free agent on that roster.

00:49:41
Speaker 2: Now.

00:49:42
Speaker 1: I see Warren though as a player that we already know that archetype, and that archetype and and who he is and what he will likely bring to the table, which is, you know, probably an injury fill in slash, maybe a flex play for your roster, especially in like a deeper lineup format right where he's good pass catcher, full PPR league, We're gonna like him a little bit more. You know, he's a solid, solid, efficient back, but never gonna be a bell cout Jalen Warren. Maybe maybe if this tandem partner gets hurt or something like that and he has a two game stretch, what have you but to me? In this environment, if you had to sort of buy into a and this is why he was actually a buy for me on my show this week, if you had to buy into a running back right now, that's kind of the archetype that I would buy into because you know that he's likely not going to lose an insane amount of value, right Like, I don't think the Steelers are going to repeat their mistake and get another first round running back this year when they have other needs, especially like wide receiver. So let's say they get a Day two running back, which is very very possible, and in this environment, I think that that's probably the most likely outcome. Maybe they get an early Day three. But regardless, there's still that chance that they don't invest that much in a running back, which would then elevate Jalen Warren lot. Whereas if they do go with the Day two running back, yeah, we're gonna like that Day two running back more, but you still might get a little bit of Jaalen Warren, Like you know, right now, if he's at RB thirty seven in rankings, maybe he goes down to RB forty four or something like that and you're.

00:51:14
Speaker 2: Losing a little bit of that value.

00:51:16
Speaker 1: But to me, that's kind of the type of player that I would be looking at right now from a veteran perspective. If I were to make a move at running back, I'm scared out of my mind if I'm being honest about any existing running back. So I'm really not going to be aggressive, And I tried to communicate that much on the by Canets episode. But do you think that's the right way to look at it? Like, find a guy who number one is not overly expensive? So you know, the difference between Chase Brown and Jalen Warren is quite dramatic from a valuation standpoint in Dynasty, So get a guy who's not as dramatically expensive that if things go south, things go south, it's not screwing you, but at least that player you feel a little insulated with his value in the way that he can at least give you that production, you know, maybe give you eleven twelve points per game in PPR formats and be a flex play and maybe fill in if a guy gets hurt. Is that the do you think the proper way to look at some of these running backs right now?

00:52:10
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:52:10
Speaker 4: In general, I do, I mean the only thing, and we talked about mistakes dynasty managers make earlier. Another one would maybe be that we're we we as a whole are too reactive. So you think about what's likely, you know, think about Jalen Warren's likely value arc over the next three or four months. He's going to hit free agency. He's not getting an offer sheet anywhere else. You know, they put a third round tag or however that works on him. He ends up back in Pittsburgh. And once he once he's in Pittsburgh, assu. I mean, they don't sign a free agent, He's going to see a value spike because now we see he's in.

00:52:50
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh, he's the top guy there.

00:52:52
Speaker 4: Right now, value goes up a little bit, right, and then the draft comes, right and then they draft the Day two guy and the value drop.

00:53:01
Speaker 3: So I like I like Warren.

00:53:03
Speaker 4: I like that type of player as a trade target, as a draft target right now, I think if you wait until draft time, NFL draft time, I think he might even be a little cheaper though.

00:53:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, one hundred. That's a very very good point.

00:53:17
Speaker 1: I think I think post draft he probably would write more than likely. That's what's so hard to And I'm going to ask you about some buy candidates right now and who you like. But to me, that's sort of the hard part about giving buy and sell candidates in a moment because a lot of times those transactions are a wait and see kind of kind of situation. I do it's a really good point with Jalen Warren. It's like, you don't necessarily have to do it right now unless you think the Steelers are really not going to invest at running back in the draft, because then his value is going to go up a ton, right, But even still, the thought of it right before the draft is going to probably bring him down at least a little bit. So that's a really important note to make and a good caveat for this next question of give me some of your buy candidates right now? What guys are you going out and looking to trade for?

00:54:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, I tried to find, try to narrow down to one guy per position, quarterback. Again, based on our ADP, this guy stands out, Kyler Murray. He's the quarterback fifteen. Somehow.

00:54:16
Speaker 4: Expectations were huge last year as he kind of bounced back, of course, had Marvin Harrison to throw to. I think I think our buddy Matthew Berry gave him my guide designation, right like everybody was in on Kyler Murray and.

00:54:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, oh I was too, I absolutely was. And in a lot.

00:54:39
Speaker 4: Of ways as a as a cumulative season didn't live up to the hype, right, but he still had eight quarterback one games, and maybe the most important thing for me, he stayed healthy. He didn't miss a single game, played the full season, first time, I think the first time he's ever done that in his career. So all of those positive you know, another year with Harrison, another year with McBride, all all of those things. Uh, And the best part right now is his price. His prices as cheap basically as it's ever been already talked about Chewba Hubbard at the running back position. He would be uh, he would be the one I would be going for. Not only do I think his job is safe, but uh he's still super cheap as well.

00:55:24
Speaker 3: And wide receiver.

00:55:25
Speaker 4: I'm pretty intrigued with with Ricky PIERSAWM. I can't wait to see how he shows up in your year two model, because you know, there was some good and bad obviously from his rookie season. Got the the understandable slow start after uh, after what happened to him. Uh, they're off the field. But I was pretty impressed with with what we saw on the field. And that's I mean that that forty nine Ers team really kind of a team in transition. Of course, they've got the the injury issues to their veterans, they've got the contract hanging over their head with with Rock Perdy. It just feels like one of those guys, I mean, probably Deebo Samuel could could be gone off that roster.

00:56:06
Speaker 3: I just look at Pearsaw.

00:56:08
Speaker 4: As a guy who's going to get some increased opportunity next year. And those young wide receivers almost no matter what, right, no matter what their rookie season, looks like they're always so expensive. He's actually a pretty reasonably priced wide receiver forty two, so I would be kicking the tires on Peersaw and then a couple of cheap tight ends. I love Noah Gray. I think we kind of saw the start of the takeover. You know, we'll see what happens in the coming days with Travis Kelcey, if he's even if he's even back with that team, if he's back in the league. Noah Gras tied in nineteen Jigokonkoa. I think we were just too early on him a couple of years ago. He's tied in twenty three. End of the season really well. So there's a few quick hitters for you.

00:56:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, love that call out.

00:56:55
Speaker 1: Noah Gray was one that I was so close to talking about in the by Candidate's episode. Yeah, it's just one of those things like sometimes I don't talk and this is this is me revealing a little bit, but sometimes I don't talk about players when it's just super vibes based, and then Noah Gray one is just kind of vibes based at this point, you know, like like there's not much to stay you know.

00:57:16
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we saw we saw the production continue, right, I mean it got better.

00:57:22
Speaker 2: You're right, You're right.

00:57:23
Speaker 4: He had a he had a bigger year than he's ever had. This is a team that's always always like to use multiple tight ends. So even if Kelsey is back, I don't think. I don't think the cost of acquiring Noah Gray is going to hurt you. And for all the all the kind of winding door, revolving door they had at a wide receiver this year, they have a lot of questions going into next year. Worthy is is intact there?

00:57:51
Speaker 3: But Rashie Rice is he healthy? Is he you know? And is he? Is he suspended? Is he in prison? Who knows what's going on?

00:57:59
Speaker 2: You know?

00:57:59
Speaker 4: I think he's He's probably a guy would be going after, but we don't know for sure. And then Hollywood's a free agent. DeAndre Hopkins is a free agent, Juju is a free agent. So I think there's going to be opportunity either way for Noah Gray.

00:58:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you, I'm with you. I think he's a goodbye.

00:58:17
Speaker 1: But speak of Noah Gray, I don't get to have this happen super often. Once a year where I have a perspective's guest the same week as a Super Bowl.

00:58:26
Speaker 2: So I got to ask you the most bland, plain.

00:58:29
Speaker 1: Question imaginable and say, give me a Super Bowl prediction for this weekend.

00:58:34
Speaker 4: Man, it's just, you know, I don't even know if I hate to say it because I don't want to be the you know, I don't want to be the hater just because they're so good. But it's hard to pick against the Chiefs at this point. I'm going Chiefs in a close one. It's all about Sakuon Barkley and their ability to I won't even say stop him, but to slow him down. And they the Chiefs have been so good against the run this year. You know, it's still fun to talk Mahomes and Kelsey and all those guys, but it's been their defense that has really carried them this year.

00:59:09
Speaker 3: And that's right.

00:59:11
Speaker 4: I mean, that's like the sign of a great team is being able to transition and kind of build on your current strengths, not just not just the same old thing. And obviously Mahomes is still great in many ways, even though he wasn't wasn't quite great for fantasy managers, or at least didn't live up to expectations. But obviously still still the greatest in the game. We have going right now, I'm with you, I got the Chiefs. I'm gonna say twenty seven to twenty three. We're gonna there's gonna be like a failed two point conversion.

00:59:44
Speaker 2: Or something like that or at extra point. That's my that's my life.

00:59:47
Speaker 3: It yeah, I'm gonna go.

00:59:50
Speaker 4: I'll go thirty five, thirty two, oh yeah, little higher scoring.

00:59:56
Speaker 2: Okay, I dig it, I dig it man. Thank you so much for hopping on.

01:00:00
Speaker 1: I always love chatting with you, always love seeing you at the expo now each year. It's nice to be able to hang out there now on a yearly basis. But let everyone know where they can find you and talk about with the kind of stuff that you're working on.

01:00:11
Speaker 4: Sure, sure find out my work at Dynasty League Football dot com. I have written content over there every single week. Do the podcast, the DLF Dynasty Podcast as well every single week, and then find me on Twitter at Ryan MC twenty three.

01:00:27
Speaker 1: And I'm on Twitter and I'm Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Make sure you guys are pre ordering the Prospect Guide. You can find that over on Lateround dot com. But enjoy the Super Bowl everyone, and as always thanks for tuning in