Emergency Podcast: Braves Trade Jorge Soler to Angels

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to episode one seven of the Hemmor Territory podcast. I'm your host, Brad Roland, coming to you in emergency fashion on a Thursday afternoon. It's Halloween afternoon, and thank good to someone else was available to do this podcast with me. Steven Tolbert's here. Hello, sir, how are you? What's up?

00:00:36
Speaker 2: Buddy? Well, we said as soon as the World Series was over that things would get going pretty quickly. I did not expect the day after the World Series that the Brakes would make one of their arguably one of their biggest questions going into the off season was what they were going to do with the spot. I did not expect that to have that answered day one of the off season. But you know that's Alex, and here we are.

00:00:57
Speaker 1: That is Alex, and here we are in emergency fashion to discuss the Braves sending Prhos Hilaire to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Griffin Canning will diget to that, of course, in reactionary fashion here, but first we should say the top of the show. We are part of the ful Territory network of podcasts. Please go ahead and subscribe to Hammer territory anywhere you find your podcast. We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, and you can even see our shiny faces right now on YouTube, where I would hope that you would like the episode as you're watching it, and please subscribe and tell your friends and look, you and me and Scott did about a fifty minute discussion about two weeks ago on the same podcast feed about the Braves facing this DH conundrum basically where they had too many bodies that were DH's not that they're bad players. They're all good players, include Horse Hilaire. He's a very good DH in a lot of different ways. But that is kind of pretty much the obvious reason why this deal seems to have happened is that the Braves looked at the same thing we did and they realize Horace alaer Kemp by the outfold anymore, we have two dhs and two and a half daches maybe going into the season. So if you want more on that whole topic, listen to that podcast. But Steven, it strikes me like that's that's pretty much the underlying thing here, right, Like it's just a reaction to that, and the Braves are you know, they're cutting salary too, but more so just addressing a spot where they had to make a change of some kind.

00:02:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, if so Layer had played better defense, I think there's a world where they don't feel like they have to do this. Like if his defense was where the level maybe they thought it was going to be when he got signed or i'm sorry, when he got traded for, they probably could have talked themselves into a scenario where they could kept everybody and just use the depth. But his defense was just so atrociously bad. I mean, as bad as any outfitter I've ever seen, quite honestly, and I think they were I think they were stunned by it. I honestly, I do think they thought he could do it pass away. I mean obviously they did. They they signed it, are they traded for him? So, and I think they were stunned by how bad he was. And I don't think they had any confidence going forward. I mean, you know, we talked about it all in a fifty minute show that the three of us did, and so this was I mean we said it that night. This was the inevitable conclusion to this is that one of these guys was going to get moved. It was very unlikely that it was going to be Ozuna. You know, the Braves love Marcelo Zuna. He's adored in that club palace. He obviously was the best hitter on the team last year, and he's you know, almost certainly going to pick up his option that's due in the next few days. But so yeah, this was the inevitable conclusion. So Laire was almost certainly going to be the guy, you know who was going to be moved with Ronnie coming back, and I'm stunned it happened day one of the offseason. The return is interesting, which we'll get to in a minute. But yeah, people, hopefully people that listen to that show should not be surprised by this. This was always the most likely outcome.

00:03:42
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, that's kind of what we said eat on that show, Like we did outline other scenarios that were possible, but in the end we circle back to, you know, training, So Laire is the easiest button to press, basically, And you know, this deal is interesting, as we'll get into now. I guess you know, in a vacum sous hilario, it is considerably better at baseball than Gryffin Canning. So if you just want to look at it that way, Like, obviously it doesn't look great through that aspect, but there's money involved here. There's a positional crunch here. It's Celaire in his remaining twenty six million or so in cash over the next two seasons for Canning, who was actually in his final arbitration year, which we'll discuss in a second, but just remind people a little bit about this about you know, the defense get you already talked about. I think Solaire's dh only player. He has been quite good the last couple of years as a hitter, Like, he's a really good baseball player if he's not playing defense, So it is a loss through that aspect, Like would it be nice to have a guy like that in your lineup every day? Sure it would be, but you have to just be practical about it. And that's kind of a fallout here, because again, it's gonna look strange if you're not like into every nuance of baseball, if you're just a fan and you know, and I'm not saying you have to be into all this stuff, it's gonna look odd for them to do a one for one of a player who I think everyone would agree is better than the guy they're getting back. That's one thing that's complicated about baseball. But in look, we'll get to do this now. I guess they're gonna save at least probably seven or eight million this year doing this, and it might be thirteen million, but don't know what they do with Grippin Canning and then that that might be repurposed. It's not a salary cap sport, but they're up against the lasery attack all these things. But in this return terribly sexy. I would say no. But even on that show that we did Stephen, we kind of said, look, they're not going to get this a home run return for rays Layer like the big thing is. And I think it was actually important that we were waited till we knew this. I think Marve Bummer reported already, others have now. I think since then the Braves were not eating any of the salary here. The money is going entirely with Horace Hilaire to Los Angeles. And that was the question that we had on that show, was like, all right, are they have to pay to get off of him?

00:05:47
Speaker 2: The answer to that was no, Yeah, I would have been surprised if the Braves well, first of all, if they'd made a deal with this early and eight money, you know, I said it. I think I said it that night. But as a DH, Solaire is on a perfectly fine contract, Like, there's nothing crazy about paying Solaire. There was some confusion. He's actually paid thirteen million dollars over the next two years. He had a signing bonus when he signed his first year with San Francisco, which cut some of the AAV down. A lot of people reporting sixteen it's actually thirteen million, like Brad just said, twenty six million over the next two years, which is just that's a perfectly reasonable I mean, for a guy that considered a middle of your lineup, thirteen million dollars is quite honestly, I mean, a pretty favorable contract in my opinion. You know, Azuna is gonna make I think eighteen million or sixteen or eighteen million on his contract options, so thirteen million is fine. I didn't think the Braves would have any trouble at least moving the money. I was very curious to see if they would get anything of note back. Griffin Kanning is a certainly a player of note play. I mean, people have heard of him he was a high draft pick. I think he was a second round pick for the Angels, so like that, it's notable. He's got some pedigree, does have some upside, it's not just nothing. But yeah, I mean, the Braves clearly wanted to get off of this money. They clearly wanted to get off of this DH situation, which I think is more important than the money. They just didn't He just didn't fit the roster anymore, and they really didn't fit the roster when they traded for him. They just hope his defense would be better than it ended up being. So you know, yeah, you're right. I mean, just player for player, Soli for Kaneing, the Braves got worse. But this is also one of those deals where there's gonna be more deals that come as offseason goes where this will make a little more sense as the money gets that got freed up gets used, or we see what their next moves are. This is one of those where you don't really want to judge just off of this move alone. There's gonna be other moves coming that probably make it make more sense. But honestly, for people that listen to the show, it shouldn't be that confusing. They just didn't have room for Solare and they needed to move somebody, and he was the obvious choice.

00:07:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're big at a nuance and trying to get context on the podcast, and that's what we're gonna do. It's just one of these lean with that like, hey, this might seem weird, it's really not. It's pretty straight ahead. And you mentioned this twife now, but I think we should just say it's Halloween as we're recording this podcast. The world series ended yesterday, literally last night, and what no, you know, fifteen sixteen, seventeen hours later, they make a trade. You know, they can't even sign for agents for four more days, and so we were kind of like not exactly anticipating a major move today, but you know, Alex does well, Alex does. It started to leak a little bit, there was a couple of reports, but within what four minutes, it was being announced by the team, So it wasn't like there was any you know, it's just one of those Alex works in the darkness, and immediately they were making a move. And we'll talk about Canning kind of the fallout in a second, but I mean Horius Hilaire just to go back to the context thing. Yes, they traded for him, but they traded for him in a situation where they were trying to not go all in. But I think if you gave Alex troops here, they probably knew it wasn't an ideal acquisition when they made it, because they knew there was at least some question about his defense thought, as you said earlier, and you're right, that they quite would be better than it was, but he had been dhing previous to that. He was it was just a limited option situation where the Braves had so many injuries, Akuna, all those things, and they also wanted to compete and not you know, let the season slip away, and he was the best hitter arguably available on the market, so they made that move. But this whole cycle, it does seem strange. It's been what three months basically since they traded for him at the end of July right now at the end of October, and they trade for a hero as well, an organizational hero. We've all seen the home run of bazillion Tias for twenty twenty one, and now he comes in and out again in three months, And you know, it's just the way things go. I guess at the end of.

00:09:41
Speaker 2: The day, you know, people will debate whether or not it was a successful trade. I mean they got him for nothing. The Giants salary dumped him and Luke Jackson to the Braves and they got a very low level prospect in return. They were dumping salary as well. And Celaire hit. I mean, he did what he was supposed to do. Now you know, of course the defense became a big story.

00:10:03
Speaker 1: But no, but he did. Actually, there was actual people like that kind of downplaying that I saw today, just to have the numbers out there with the Braves, Claire hit nine home runs in forty nine games with an eight forty nine ops. Yeah, Like he was in very clearly about the advertrader with the Braves, Like there was no question about that. And it's just that even you know, the war, it's kind of funny, not funny's made the wrong word, but his uh with but replacement calculation. If he had just been dhing, he would have been way better in that calculation. It's just that his defense was so bad that it dragged it down. But that was because of the reason he was the choir was to hit to your.

00:10:36
Speaker 2: Point, right, it wasn't his fault that they put him in right field. I mean, he did what he was brought over to do, which was hit, and that's what the Angels just traded for him to do, is to hit. I guarantee you he's going to DH most of the time. The Angels playing a massive ballpark. There's no chance he's playing in that outfield. And so, you know, I actually have some questions about the fit with with La, considering Trout has dealt with so many injuries. I thought he with DH a bunch for them. There's no chance so Lara can play in that outfield. I don't I don't actually love this deal for the Angels, to be honest, if I'm just talking about fit. But this is obviously a Braves podcast. But yeah, he hit. And if he had been dhing for the Braves this whole time and he hit, then people would view this trade very differently. It's just because he played in the outfield that people have any negative opinions at all of Jorge Hilaire. In my opinion, I think he did exactly what he was supposed to do. And and I you know, I nothing about this surprises me. I hope it doesn't surprise anybody who's listened to the show. This all should be very, very normal.

00:11:33
Speaker 1: I agree, and we'll dig into the return. And there's some interesting nuance that I would say, some uncertainty as we record this, so we're recording this podcast on Thursday afternoon, is uncertain of what we're gonna do with Gryfin Cannon. We'll get into all of that in more than a second, but first to work with our partners on the podcast today. All right, Stephen, let's the Scotts Griffin canning a little bit, because this is the return for rayse Hilaire. You know, he could be a non tender candid as Let's just start there. There is a chance that the Braves are gonna non tender hit. He is in the final year of arbitration. I know, pre trade he was projected by MLB trade rumors for about five point one million dollars in an arbitration salary. He was not worth that much last year. He was worth a lot more than that the previous year. So there's a little bit of interesting dichotomy there. But the way that I would frame this first is this is just me interpreting it from the outside. This is not reporting anything. The Braves could have just traded so Lair to the Angels for nothing if they were going to non tender Griffin Canning. Now they still could. It wouldn't shock me, But the Braves didn't have to take Gryffin Canning back. It alos like the Angels had a reason to trade him because they didn't owe him any money. They could have just non tendered in themselves and been done with it. So it seems to me, based on that indicator that the Braves at least probably like Gryffin Canning, or at least see something potentially in Gryffin Canning. Now that I'm not sure that that's going to mean that they're going to offer him, you know, the tender. But at the same time, there's some interesting stuff here, so we don't have to go super deepond Gryman Canning. But he's a guy that you mentioned, like, it's not like it's super household day, but it's better than Majors for five seasons had a major injury. They we'll discuss, but not as zero return, but it potentially nuanced one for sure.

00:13:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, he's thrown about three hundred innings in the last two years for the Angels as a starter. That's I mean, honestly, just that alone has value. Just that you're healthy enough to throw one hundred and fifty, you know, average one hundred and fifty innings in the last couple of years. You know, he's not a huge stuff guy threes about ninety three, ninety four. He actually doesn't use his fastball. His best pitches is change up, and he throws out a ton. He throws a lot of off speed stuff. And you know, there is a move in baseball towards less and less fastballs, more and more change ups, more off speed. You know, we just watched the guy pitch for the Yankees who threw like seventy five change ups in a row. So like, this is not crazy. The problem for Griffin, the thing that's gonna hurt Griffin Canning is he doesn't have any minor league options. And it's sounds like a small thing, but that's a massive thing when you are a kind of a fringe fifth starter. You know, like the Braves have a bunch of these like fifth starter candidates, Elder Whinings, you know, all the guy you know, all the triple guys, that everybody knows and saw that last year. But the difference is all those guys had options, and so if they didn't pitch well, they could just be sent to Guinet and somebody else come came up that that was the whole shuttle that happened last year before Spencer Swollenbach came. Griffin doesn't have that option. He doesn't have minor league options, and so I'm very curious to see what they do. You're you're one hundred percent right, And Scott brought that up in our in our du in our battery or our Hammier territory chat was that they didn't have to They could have just sent so Learn to La for nothing. And so they obviously like something about him. But unless he's gonna also pitch out of the bullpen, which allows you to have a little more flexibility having a guy as a fifth starter option who doesn't have options, who's making real money. Five million dollars is real money, assuming that's what it ends up being for the arbitration panel. That's tough. It's tough not to be able to do anything with him if he's not pitching well. And again, if you cut him now, you don't owe him any of that money, versus if you wait and put him on the roster and then try to dfahim, you owe him all of that money. So when you cut him matters quite a bit here in terms of savings. And if you don't think he's gonna be a real rotation candidate for you, you have to make that decision pretty quickly. Because some rules have changed about how arbitration gets paid out. We're not going to get into all that, but yeah, it is a very interesting situation.

00:15:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe there's a third path where they go to Canning and say, all right, you probably are gonna get five million dollars as a free agent. How about we don't tener you and then we offer you two million or whatever it's going to be the or something like that too. That's that's a possibility. I'm not sure if it's going to happen. Obviously, he's no lualty to Atlanta. He's never been here to this point, so it's nuanced. But I still think that, like if you just kind of do a little bit of tea lea for eating there, the brace probably sees something in him and just as a quick rundown, like he's mostly been a useful back rotation starter when he's been healthy. As he came up in twenty nineteen, he was very solid in twenty twenty that he had this major back issue. He missed like a year and a half with a back issue, which is weird. Honestly, when I saw that he missed the season, I just assumed its elbowed her shoulder, because that's almost every as you know. But it was like, oh, it's a back injury. That's interesting. But he's been back for two years. He was actually quite good in twenty twenty three, like he was worth about two wins, like not even you know. He was a good I would say, a solid third four starter guy with that kind of level pitcher in twenty twenty three. But then this last year in twenty four he threw a cur high an innings but mostly was not very good in those innings. And I was actually reading something by Sam Bloma, the athletic who covers the Angels, and basically all of this stuff played down, Like his velocity was down this year compared to previous years. The k rape spiked in the wrong direction, went went way down. You don't love that. He was really awful to start games. He god like got seven and a half yet r in the first inning, which is like just weirdly terrible. And this is a twenty eight year old guy, Like he's not you feel like it's not he's like thirty six where he's gonna be cooked. But but you mentioned the change up, like maybe there's something to on earth him, Like how how he uses it? You know, he's he's been with the angels the whole time. Maybe the brands are like, aha, we see something in this in this picture, and we're gonna we're gonna fix him. That's happened before of the Braves. They've done a good job with that in the past. But he's not a he's not a no brainer to be in rotation your points one hundred percent, right, Like they kind of have to think that he's a pretty good candidate to be the fifth starter to pay him five million dollars or that that approximate number. Maybe maybe he's a relief candidate too, that's a possibility he does a scream at me reliever giving he's not he's not a super hard thrower. But maybe that's an idea too, where they Alex is like, all right, this is gonna be this is gonna be our you know, fifth reliever for next year at five million dollars. That's also fine too, but uh, we just don't know when Oxid haven't said anything yet. So yeah, questions and.

00:17:50
Speaker 2: And and it's listen, it's more complicated when as of right now, his his his salary is not guaranteed. But if he makes the opening dig roster, his salary is guaranteed. So like, it's not a normal situation where you can just you know, test him out in April and see if he does well, and if he doesn't, then you just cut him loose. Like there's a very big difference about when that happens. And if he can pitch in the bullpen, that does alleviate some of that because it gives you more flexibility. If he's not pitching great out of the bullpen or out of the rotation, you don't have to cut him. You can just move him to the bullpen. Like if he can do both, it helps a ton to make this decision. But yeah, it is a weird. It's a way, it's a it's an unusual situation. I said on Twitter that I would not be stunned if he got DFA. I still stand by that. But like you said, they didn't have to add they didn't have to include him in this deal at all. They obviously like something about him. So yeah, it is a it's a it's interesting. I'm very curious see what happens here.

00:18:45
Speaker 1: I n two and I'm sure most people don't like let us know how to the end, like yeah, at the same time, like I get that too. I just think that, you know, if he had guaranteed money and it took him back, I would be like, all right, the Angels were just making this, make the Braves pay this tax to take celet, that would have made sense too, Like it wouldn't have been a weird thing that would have happened there if it was. If he was guaranteed five million, you just keep him around, if he makes the team, makes a team whatever. But because there's this decision right now where they can they could get off that for nothing, right, they have to proactively like him to keep.

00:19:17
Speaker 2: Him around, and and no minor league options.

00:19:19
Speaker 1: No minor league options, and maybe you know they are probably going to lose Jesse Chavez. We think to retirement. He's been a lot, He's been one of their longer relievers last year, plus Luke Jackson is a non tender candidate I would say likely to be non tendered at this point, so they have some relief space if they think that there maybe he can do it kind of dual role in a way that they haven't really done much of in recent years. Like Grant Holmes was kind of doing that last year, but out of necessity, like he was mostly a reliever and then became a starter because they had started Fisher injuries and whatever else. So there's a role there maybe for a dual situation. But again, he's not like, he's not a flamethrower. He's an Anying Zeter type.

00:20:00
Speaker 2: It seems like yeah, and again, if you want to go get guys like that, there are cheaper options than five million dollars, like right, you know, guys like Jeffy Jesse Chavis signed minor league deals.

00:20:10
Speaker 1: And that's why I think it's that's why my suspicion is, and maybe I'll be wrong, that Alex or somebody in the organization is like, we're gonna we have we see something that we're going to fix in Griffin Canning, and we're buying it.

00:20:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, they think he's going to be the fifth starter, Like yeah, pretty sure.

00:20:25
Speaker 1: Well and you you know this, Steven, But just for listeners, you also need more than five starters. There's always this world where people talk about wall we already have so many starters. I already saw it today from Braves fans, Well what about Smith Schauv, what about Waldrop? Like, guys, there is every every season is an evidence of this, like you need nine, ten, eleven starters, Like it's not it's not an exaggeration. So and that's also for the Braves. They have all of these guys like Smith, schav and Waldrip who are really cheap and Schwallenbach is making pennies like you could have. You can kind of eat more easily afford a five million dollar semi flyer on Gryffin Canning because you have three or four five rotation possibilities that are all making a million dollars.

00:21:13
Speaker 2: Or let's if if Griffin Kanning had a minor league option, this is a this is a no brainer. Or if Gryffin Kanning's five million was already guaranteed and the Angels were just clearing some money, this is a no brainer. The fact that it's neither one of those things is. It's the only reason this is even a question at all, quite honestly.

00:21:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe we'll learn, like literally again, recording this podcast on Halloween afternoon, there's a chance that we get reporting where Alex just says something on the record tonight like I'm not saying that's not I mean, so just keep in mind. That's why, that's why I could tell me when we're recording this podcast, we're trying to get you an emergency reaction as big of more information. We'll have full coverage on the show, as we always do. But this could rectify itself very quickly. Alix could come out and say we're tenoring Gryffin Canning. We like Grffin Canning. We let that could be one that one area, or they say we are not centering Griffin Canning. We don't know the answer, and we will at some point. Anything else to add Stephen before we signed off on a bizarre, strange Halloween two thirty pm Eastern Time, recording.

00:22:14
Speaker 2: This is day This is day one.

00:22:15
Speaker 1: This is day wee one, literally day one of the off season, and we had last night.

00:22:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have our big one of our biggest questions answered, and which of the dhs is gonna move and where is he gonna move to? So yeah, and I you know, we've said it like, this is gonna be a very interesting offseason on a number of fronts, just because of how the season went, the new coaching staff and stuff like that. So but yeah, day one and we're already underway. So hope everybody subscribe because the off season is officially here.

00:22:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, we are already underway. I am very thankful that we chose to do the DH one Hundrum episode two weeks ago and not today, because that would have been at least we got a chance to talk it all out. I prepared everybody for what was gonna happen, and we have the groundwork there. But yeah, we'll have more on on this, I'm sure more on Canning, more on you know, Fallow et cetera, et cetera, and the future. So please go ahead and subscribe. If you're a new listener that's finding us via YouTube or whatever, thank you for being here. Please keep keep us locked in subscribe on YouTube or on our audio platforms. I very much appreciate that, Steven, Where can folks let be new to the podcast? Follow you on social media and on your other non podcast Braves offerings.

00:23:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, be underscore outliers on Twitter x whatever you call it.

00:23:23
Speaker 1: And then.

00:23:25
Speaker 2: Battery Power is where Scott and Sean and I all blog our buddy Chris and Demetrius over there. So yeah, but obviously on the Hammer Territory podcast is the most prevalent spot.

00:23:37
Speaker 1: Nice have done. If people want to want to follow my work as well, I am at bt roll on and also if Hammer Territory has social media accounts across the platforms, We're on Twitter at Hammer Territory. We're also there on Instagram and on Facebook. One more time, one more please subscribe to the podcast. We'll have more come. I promise you that, and without any further delay, we'll see you all next time.