472: The Importance of Quarterback Rushing

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha. J J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode four hundred and seventy two of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. During the twenty twenty season, quarterbacks rushed for nine four hundred and fifteen yards. That was up about seventeen hundred yards from twenty nineteen and up about fourteen hundred yards from twenty eighteen. Dating back to twenty eleven, this twenty twenty season was easily, and I mean easily, the best rushing quarterback season we've ever seen. We were all witnesses to this each and every week. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen Kyler, Murray, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott when he was healthy, Jalen Hurts when he became starter, Cam Newton. The list goes on and on. Quarterbacks are running the ball often, and they're running the ball well, and it's changing Fantasy football scratch that it already has on today's show, we're talking quarterback rushing. I'll be diving into how quarterback rushing has changed the landscape of the fantasy football game at what it means for twenty twenty one and beyond. Before digging in, though, I want to remind you that as we inch closer to the conclusion of the twenty twenty NFL season, there's only a few more opportunities to enter FanDuel's NFL Saturday Million. If you missed out on last week's contest, don't worry. The stage is set for you to play for a big payday in the divisional round. For just four dollars and forty four cents, you can enter the NFL Saturday Million and compete for your share of the one million dollar prize bowl, including a two hundred thousand dollars first place prize. For more details of at fandle dot com or download the fandel Lap Today, Eligibility restrictions apply. Okay, So I want to kick things off today with a reference to an article that was written in twenty thirteen. Rich Reebar, who some of you probably know from his work at wrote a world in now sharp football analysis. Rich wrote a couple of articles for number five way back in the day. In twenty thirteen, he wrote a piece called Terrell pryor Tim Tebow in Running Quarterback History. In that article, he explained why quarterback rushing was broken in standard scoring leagues, or maybe to put in another way, he explained why quarterback rushing was so important. He dubbed this cheat code the Konami code of fantasy football. So we've known this was the case for a long time. We've known that running at the quarterback position is a cheat code in fantasy football entering the twenty twenty season. It's not like fantasy managers were unaware of the impact quarterback rushing had on quarterback scoring. In fact, in an article that I wrote back in May overrun number five titled did Lamar Jackson Break the late round Quarterback Strategy? I concluded the following, You know, the truth is the question about the late round quarterback strategy in fantasy football this year shouldn't really revolve around Lamar Jackson. It shouldn't be about whether or not you're willing to take Jackson in the top twenty five or the top thirty. Instead, our focus should be on the fact that the fantasy football world has gotten smarter in the past. The season like Ryan Tannehill's twenty nineteen would have almost assuredly catapulted his cost the following year into the top ten at the quarterback position. Yet today, the following year he's being drafted as a mid range QB two. Historically, fantasy managers didn't put a premium on quarterback rushing production. They ignored what's been dubbed the Konami code of fantasy football. We don't see that anymore. The consensus top seven quarterbacks this year are all players who bring that extra juice with their legs. So no, Lamar Jackson isn't what could break the idea of drafting quarterbacks late in fantasy football. You are. As the fantasy football world gets sharper, the late round quarterback strategy may slowly morph into the middle round quarterback strategy. I've read that excerpt in the past, and I'm not reading it again because and I told you so moment. I think it's important to establish that this is not something new. This isn't some hindsight driven thing that I'm talking about. The fact is, entering the year, it was pretty clear that number one, the Russian component for quarterbacks was vital for fantasy football success, and that number two. This seemed to be the first year since I'd been analyzing fantasy football where these mobile quarterbacks were actually properly priced, and that changed everything. In the past, you were able to get deals on late round quarterbacks for a few reasons, one of them being that the market was never efficient. We've had mobile quarterbacks be drafted late, We've had obvious breakout candidates drafted late. Before this past year, it was relatively easy to find a couple of later round guys that you felt good about. But on top of that is this idea of replaceability. Because you start one quarterback in your typical league, the demand of the position is low, in turn, the replaceabilities high. There've always been a lot of players on your waiver wire each week to choose and effectively stream at the quarterback position. I've done shows on why you can stream the quarterback position in the past. I won't dig deep into that topic today. What I can tell you is that over the last six years, with my other podcast called Living the Stream, my co host Denny Carter and I have averaged about a QB seven Frankenstein each year, and that's without the benefit of finding a quarterback and just starting that quarterback week in and week out. We choose quarterbacks each week that are rostered in a low number of leagues. We then average out those quarterbacks totals, and the average points per game has traditionally ended up in the QB six of the QB eight range until this year. This year it was QB eleven. Now, we didn't have the benefit of picking up someone like Justin Herbert and just recommending him each and every week, but it was very clear that the baseline quarterback, the hypothetical worst starter that you could put together, It was a lot lower and worse this year than in past years. And the reason for that is what I've been taught talking about. The market was efficient to start the year, and then things really really blew up this season. It wasn't just rushing that blew up either. Yes, quarterbacks had by far the most rushing yards that we've seen, and the same goes for rushing touchdowns. Get this, quarterbacks in twenty twenty they rushed for one hundred and twenty six touchdowns. Last season. In twenty nineteen, that number was eighty. The year before that, it was seventy one. So not only were quarterbacks gaining more yards, but quite obviously they were scoring more touchdowns too. They represented twenty three point six percent of all rushing touchdowns. Their previous high over the last decade it came last year at seventeen point nine percent. But here's the thing. It wasn't just rushing that was crazy in twenty twenty. If you look at the top twelve quarterbacks and points per game this season, and I'm only looking at quarterbacks who played half the season here, so someone like Dak Prescott isn't part of the sample. But if you look at top twelve quarterbacks and points per game, the subsets average points per game was twenty two point two points. If you look at all seasons since twenty eleven, that was easily the highest. Now you might be saying that's because of rushing, and you'd be partially right with that statement. This past season, top twelve quarterbacks averaged four point two points per game with their legs. And by the way, any fumbles here are credited to passing, but it's not like that would have made a ton of difference. But top twelve quarterbacks in twenty twenty they averaged four point two points per game via rushing. In twenty nineteen that number was three point seven, and in every other season since twenty eleven, the highest we'd seen was two point eight. If you're doing some quick math in your head, or if you were even able to, you might realize that this also means that quarterback passing was at its best is past year two. During the twenty twenty season, Top twelve quarterbacks averaged eighteen point one points per game through the air. It's the first time that number was over eighteen since twenty eleven. Over the nine years prior, the average passing points per game was sixteen point nine. The exact trend exists when you look at Top six quarterbacks two and twenty twenty. Top six quarterbacks high end quarterbacks, they averaged twenty three point eight points per game. Last year, the number was twenty two. The highest that had been over the last decade before twenty twenty was twenty two point seven points. So Top six quarterbacks is past year. They were averaging at least a point plus more per game than what we've seen historically in any recent season. The passing component to their scores wasn't the highest over the last ten years, but it was close. They averaged nineteen point two points per game via the air, a number that was well over a point above the ten year average. So in some not only did we see a ridiculous season for rushing quarterbacks, but we also saw a ridiculous season with passing, and that combined created this twenty twenty season where having a stud quarterback was indeed giving you an edge because while those higher end quarterbacks were getting better and posting better numbers, the lower end starting quarterbacks, the lower end qb ones, they were along the same lines with what we've seen over the last decade. And for anyone who's followed or follows the late round quarterback strategy, this is where things get iffy. It'd be one thing of quarterbacks had this monster year and it happened mostly through passing. We'd expect some of that to regress touchdown rates, which will often drive fantasy scoring for quarterbacks, at least through the air. Touchdown rates regress, For example, when a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers has the type of campaign that he just had this year, we're at a nine point one percent touchdown rate, it's easy to look at him the following year and assume that he's going to be overvalued. I've been doing this for years. With my analysis. We see that literally every season with multiple quarterbacks. People don't always realize this, but there's a whole lot of turnover at quarterback year over year. Fantasy managers think they're getting a safe pick when they take a quarterback early, but data doesn't really show this. Instead, data shows that when you look at top twelve quarterback average draft position data and you compare it to the postseason result, there's less correlation than with top twenty four running backs and wide receivers, meaning within that sample we actually predict the outcome for running backs and wide receivers better than we do quarterbacks. This is part of the reason the late round quarterback strategy has been so effective. Replacing passing numbers each week through streaming or even through a late round quarterback who just breaks out. It really hasn't been that hard. It's not so simple when you add in this rushing component, though, because all of a sudden, instead of having this pool of twenty quarterbacks who all throw the ball a lot, and we're all capable of having a top three fantasy season, we have a select few quarterbacks who are actually capable of giving you four plus points per game through rushing. To put this another way, Fading Aaron Rodgers next year, that's not gonna be tough. I'll talk about that all off season. We know he's very unlikely to repeat his twenty twenty season, and we know that he doesn't bring massive amounts of fantasy production to the table with his legs. He brings some, but not like a Kyler Murray or Josh Allen. Rogers is an easy guy to avoid. Josh Allen is Deshaun Watson. Fading those players is not easy because not only are they giving you a floor each week with what they can do on the ground, but now it's matching with their arm. Now they're able to put up these monster passing numbers while providing high end rushing production. Are choices of players to become top three fantasy assets at quarterback, they're shrinking. The allure of the late round quarterback strategy has always been that the position is deep, it's replaceable, and you've at least got a decent shot at QB one or QB two production with a late round pick. Now, I'm sure that technically still exists, but not at the same level. Now we have a more efficient market. Now we almost certainly know which players are going to be in store for huge fantasy seasons at the quarterback position. So where does that bring us? Does that mean that I jj the persons whose career as a fantasy football analyst started by writing an ebook titled The Late Round Quarterback? Does that mean that I'm now officially throwing in the tow with this strategy. No, it doesn't, because that's never been what this strategy has ever been about. Like I said at the top, the late Round Quarterback approach, it's about reading and understanding the market. When I first wrote my ebook nine years ago, the twelfth quarterback in drafts was typically selected in round date of a twelve team league. That's basically where we saw the QB six get drafted this year. The word late doesn't mean streaming, It doesn't mean be the last person to take a quarterback. It means that, by reading what the market has done, and by understanding the way fantasy managers behave traditionally, drafting quarterbacks late is a winning strategy. And as of today, we don't know where those quarterback ADPs are going to fall, so we can't and we shouldn't assume that we'll be moving one direction or another for twenty twenty one drafts. On top of that, I think there's a chance that we see some regression in twenty twenty one. This was a unique season, and while there are good reasons to believe that higher scores are here to stay, like an increase in play action passing a decrease in offensive penalties, I have a hard time just completely ignoring the circumstances of this season. The lack of preseason and reps could help explain why scoring was so high to start the year. We saw that in twenty eleven as well, at least to start the season, and that season we almost had a lockout in the NFL. This was even more drastic and dramatic than that season was, and maybe the lack of fans helped offenses too. Away teams had an easier time communicating at the line of scrimmage That could have helped them be more efficient offensively, But I also think that's going to impact passing more than rushing. The regression is likely going to help the baseline out a bit. It'll make streaming maybe a little bit easier to do, but it's not going to regress so far to the point where the advantages that we saw from quarterbacks this year that that's just going to evaporate and disappear. Where we're at now, given what's happened this season and the year before where there was a spike in rushing production as well, this is a turning point for as long as the NFL doesn't add more dual threat quarterbacks, the current dual threat quarterbacks are going to continue to give you an edge. That's not the question. That shouldn't be the question. We now not only no one understand the importance of rushing for quarterbacks, but because of these passers who are able to do it all through the air and on the ground, we now have a good idea of who these high end passers are gonna be each year. And I'll tell you what. That's information that I fought against for years. I used to fight and fight and fight against this idea that high end quarterback picks were safe. Because they haven't been safe, because there has been variants with those picks. That variance is slowly disappearing. And it's because of the Josh Allens and the Deshaun Watsons and the Kyler Murray's of the world. It's because of these players who have now developed some of the best arms in football while maintaining their mobility. The question isn't whether these guys are going to give you an edge in fantasy football. The question is where are these guys going to get drafted. That's what's gonna dick take your quarterback strategy. That's what's gonna tell us if, for the time being, if the late round quarterback strategy is not nearly as advantageous as it used to be. This is what fantasy football has needed. The answer to how do I make quarterbacks matter more in fantasy football has almost always been making a superflex league. That's still an easy answer, but at least now we have a reason to take the QB six earlier than round eight, and to be honest, we did last year two. And hopefully this type of discussion and strategy can hold on for more than just a year or two, because realistically, all that needs to happen is that there needs to be an influx of dual threat talent. That's it. That's how fragile this whole thing is. If a handful of quarterbacks with rushing ability come into the league and then succeed. And we know some are coming in, but if they succeed, then all of a sudden, we're back to confidently drafting quarterbacks in rounds eleven, twelve, and thirteen because there's gonna be more dull threat options you having Josh Allen isn't giving you as big of an advantage until then, though, we've got to be hyper aware of the quarterback market because unlike twenty fourteen or twenty fifteen or twenty sixteen, when it was obvious to get a quarterback late, the mobility of quarterbacks has made it not so obvious. That's going to know for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. Will be back on Friday with the weekly mailbag show. I'll talk to you then,