Trump Optimistic on Iran Deal; Gulf Leaders Say Deal '6 Months Away'

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
are the stories we're following today, Karen.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to
expire in just four days, but President Trump is putting
out an optimistic message that the war in the Middle
East could wrap up even before that.
So you and Iran wants to make a deal, and
we're dealing very nicely with them.
We've got to have no nuclear weapons.
If we do, that's a big factor.
And they're willing to do things today that they weren't
willing to do two months ago.
The President spoke to reporters outside the White House yesterday.
Bloomberg's Patrick Sykes has more from Istanbul.
He pointed to two things in particular. One the opening
of the straight ufall news obviously key for energy markets
globally and beyond. And two he referred to a statement
that the US's from Iran to the effect that it
won't pursue nuclear weapons. I think it's worth mentioning that
both of those things were, of course the case before
the war six weeks ago, so I think it remains
to be seen are we talking about a return to
a status quo or a kind of substantively new arrangement
between those two longtime enemies.
Bloomberg's Patrick Sykes reports President Trump says the two sides
might meet again for direct talks this weekend. Meanwhile, Israel
and Lebanon have called a ten day ceasefire in their conflict,
and President Trump says the US will work with both
those sides on a lasting deal. He didn't mention Hesbola
in the announcement, but that arounbacked militant group in Lebanon
appears to be abiding by the troops well.
Nathan.
Bloomberg News has learned that some European and golf leaders
believe securing a lasting US around peace deal could take
around six months. Begin more with the Bloombergy chief Europe
correspondent Oliver Crook.
I think it sort of highlights the difference between the
European approach to diplomacy Trump administration approach to diplomacy. Their
style has US geared towards Witkoff is here, JD. Vans
is here. Is there a deal? Is there not a deal? Oh,
there's no deal, so there's not going to be a deal.
I mean, these are processes that are very, very complex.
They require a lot of discussion, a lot of trust
that obviously doesn't exist at the moment. And it seems
that potentially now with the discussions we're hearing from the
Trump administration that they may be rebasing a timeline around
sort of extending that ceasefire by a couple of weeks.
The Europeans are saying, hey, this could be a sort
of six month process, and I think that is partially
their ambition to try to bring some calm, some stability.
And of course, as you know, the longer a ceasefire
sort of endures, the less likely it is to go
back to a hot war.
Obviously, though that is never off the table.
Bloomberg's Oliver Crook says, the leaders want this straight of
horror moves opened immediately to restore energy flows. They're warning
a global food crisis may develop if that doesn't happen
by next month.
Well, Karen, we're seeing oil drop this morning as the
war nears. It's fiftieth day right now, West Texas and
immediate crewed is down nearly two and a half percent
at ninety two dollars thirty nine cents a barrel Brent
is down two percent at ninety seven thirty nine. Fatabirol,
the executive director of the International Energy Agency, tells Bloomberg
it will take time to recover a significant share of
oil and gas production.
The station will gradually improve, but according to our analysis,
it can take up to two years to see the
big chunk of the production coming back to the before war.
Lewis.
Catch our full conversation with i ehi Fa Tabirol on
our video hub on the Bloomberg Business app.
Well, Nathan.
Chinese President Hijinping is wrapping up a busy week of
high profile diplomatic meetings in Beijing. She has been positioning
China as a source of stability and respect for international
rules amid the US conflict with Iran and President Trump's threats.
Among those presidents she has met with our Spain's Prime
Minister Pedro Sanchez, a US NATO ally, and Abu Dhabi's
Crown Prince Sheik Khaled bin Mohammad.
Well back here in the US, Karen and In Trump's
trying to downplay voter concerns about the war's impact on
the economy, and an event in Las Vegas promoting his
tax cut bill. The President said he's heard warnings about
soaring energy prices.
Sir, don't do it, sir, three hundred dollars a barrel.
It's going to be a wild thing.
It's going to be horrible.
The depression is going to happen.
Well, not gonna happen, because we just had a brand
new all time high.
With the President here to be referring to new records
for the s and P five hundred and NASTAK one hundred.
He's on a west coast swing through Nevada and Arizona,
touting his economic message. Recent polls show most Americans disapprove
the president's handling of the war and blame him for
rising gas prices.
On Capitol Hill, Nathan the House burned the Midnight Oil
to pass an extension of surveillance powers that are due
to expire early next week. Lawmakers vote unanimously to extend
Section seven O two at a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance.
Act, but only for two weeks.
Several Conservatives joined with Democrats to kill a five year
extension that House leaders proposed and President Trump support. Georgia
Republican Austin Scott pushed for the longer deal.
We cannot allow Section seven oh two to lapse, not
at a moment where our adversaries are expanding their capabilities,
accelerating their operations, and exploiting every gap in our intelligence posture.
Now, the Senate has to pass the short term deal
or the spy powers will lapse on Monday.
Back to the markets now, Karen stocks are coming off
back to back record high. As we mentioned the record
for the SMP five hundred, it's on course for a
third week of more than three percent gains, and with
the Nasdaq one hundred at a record as well. The
tech heavy indexes gained for twelve straight sessions, its longest
winning streak since twenty seventeen, and right now, futures are
pointing to even more gains, with SMP futures up to
ten percent in Nasdaq futures up a tenth of one percent.
Nathan Netflix shares they're streaming lower. They're down about ten
percent this morning. The company gave a forecast for the
second quarter that fell short.
Of analyst expectations.
It's the first earning's report since Netflix's walked away from
the battle for Warner Brothers Discovery. Keatha Raganathon covers Netflix
for Bloomberg Intelligence.
You know, we're not necessarily seeing a great acceleration in
the revenue numbers, in the operating margin numbers, which is
exactly what they needed to show in order to, you know,
basically assuage investors that did not need Warner Brothers Discovery.
So this kind of leaves investors, I think a little bit,
you know, hanging a little bit.
And Bloomberg Intelligence analyst KEITHA. Raaganathon says.
Netflix also announced chairman and co founder Read Hastings is
stepping down from the board to pursue philanthropy and personal interests.
And there's a changing of the guarded of sorts. At Apple.
Karen the marketing executive in charge of Apple Watch, AirPods, health,
and smart home initiatives, is also retiring. Stan Ung worked
at Apple for thirty one years. In his role, he
helped devise the original Apple Watch and helped launch the
original iPod.
Time now for a look at some of the other
stories making news in New York and around the world,
And for that we're returned by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.
Michael, Good morning, Good.
Morning, Karen. President Trump insists to reporters at the White
House that he is not feuding with Pope Leo, despite
the criticisms he had for the pontiff earlier in the week.
Pope Leo has said he has a moral duty to
speak out against war and called President Trump's threat to
attack Iranian civilization unacceptable. Before leaving for Las Vegas, the
President said he believes he is stopping Iran from developing
into a nuclear power and falsely claims that Pope Leo
is advocating for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
If the Pope would allow a red to have a
nuclear weapon, you can't do that.
Meanwhile, Pope Leo is marking the halfway point in his
four nation tour of Africa with a day focused on
encouraging Cameroon's young people. Democrat Annalilia Mahia has won the
special election in New Jersey's eleventh congressional district. Buthea, backed
by Bernie Sanders, beat Republican Joe Hathaway with just under
sixty percent of the vote to fill the House seat.
She spoke to ms NOW on her win.
I'm feeling great. I'm so thrilled to have the opportunity
to represent the great people of New Jersey's eleventh congressional district.
He is set to serve the remainder of Democratic former
Representative Mikey Cheryl's term. Shargel resigned from the seat in
November after being elected governor of New Jersey. New York
City mayors Ormmmdannie revealed his childcare plans and called on
organizations in the city to get involved. Mayor Mumdannie says
the initiative addresses immediate needs of childcare in the city,
but also looks down the road to what else might
be needed.
To those people who want to help, I say, the
Childcare Action Fund is your way to get involved. This
fund will help us build the infrastructure necessary to make
universal childcare accessible to every New Yorker who needs it.
Mayor mum Donnie says so far, more than three million
dollars of twenty million needed has been raised for his
free childcare initiative this year. Global News twenty four hours
a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now,
tell Michael Barrn this is Bloomberg heron.
Well, thanks Michael.
Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that
we bring in John stashauerd.
Thanks Karen, the NBA play in begins tonight with two games.
Orlando hosts Charlotte. The winner then plays Detroit, Golden State
visits Phoenix, with the winner moving on to play Oklahoma City.
The NBA Playoffs begin tomorrow, so do the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
In the last day of the regular season, Edmonton's Connor
McDavid had four assists. He won the scoring title for
the sixth time. Meanwhile, Alex Veskian, who had another strong
season at age forty, says he expects to return to
the Washington Capitals for a twenty second season and not retire.
That's your Bloomberg Sports update.
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up
after this.
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Bloomberg Business album.
This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. With less than a week
until that two weeks cees fire ends between the US
and Iran, President Trump's sounding optimistic a deal could get
done before then, but the President has a warning for Tehran.
If it doesn't happen, I.
Would say the fighting if there's no deal fighter.
Reserve President Trump at the White House yesterday. Joining us
this morning from Dubai is Bloomberg News Middle East Managing
editor owner Aunt Honor. Good morning. Is there substance behind
the President's optimism?
Good morning, Well, there appears to be substance behind the
president's optimism. Having said that, it's important to note that
Iran has yet to comment on recent claims by Trump
that a deal might be might be very soon, might
be announced fairly soon in his own words. The main
sticking point as far as our concern our reporting goes
is the enriched uranium stockpile in Iran. It's still not
clear what the fate of that material will be and
whether Iran will be able to commit itself to a
future where it doesn't enrich any more uranium. That is
at the heart of the disagreement. But yes, the signaling
from Trump and the US and restriction is very much
that they are getting ready to wind down as war.
That is a central sticking point. As you mentioned, I
think we heard the President say to reporters at the
White House yesterday that there doesn't even need to be
a twenty year limit on Iran's nuclear program. What do
we know about what Iran could agree to when it
comes to its nuclear ambitions.
Well, we know that Iran actually did agree to some
kind of a moratorium, orbeit much less than a twenty
year long one on its nuclear enrichment activities. And again
this brings us to the very same question that we
just discussed. This is the part of the disagreement. Trump
doesn't even seem to be keen on the idea of
a long term moratorium. He wants to finish this matter
once and for all, so to speak. Well, on the
one hand, there is a chance that he is trying
to do what any successful salesman or negotiator would do,
which is to start with an unacceptable offer and try
to find a compromise, a comground that can be acceptable
to both parties. But we haven't really seen any indication
from Iran that it is ready to forego it's nuclear
enrichment activities for an indefinite period. Because this is for
them not just about the strategic value of such activity,
but it is an inalienable sovereign right. It's a matter
of national sovereignty. So it's very hard to imagine a
scenario where Iran makes a commitment to not have any
nuclear enrichment activity in the future at all.
Now, to your point about the complications here, we've heard
from Golf, Arab and European allies saying that it could
take up to six months to reach a longer term
deal and that the ceasefire between the US and Iran
should be extended to that amount of time. When it
comes to what the President is talking about, could this
be sort of like the deal before the deal.
That's a great way of putting it. Yes, I think
what President Trump has in mind right now sounds like
a deal before the deal. Golf officials, as well as
those in Europe, think that the differences between the two
sides over the main issues remain just simply too wide
to bridge in such a short period of time, despite
Trump's optimism. Now, the seeming inconsistency between what Europeans think
and what Trump says maybe down to the fact that,
as you said, Trump, there is a chance that Trump
seeses the next point as a possible interim deal that
will make sure that neither the US nor Iran go
back to fighting because they both seem to have had
enough of it. For lack of a better expression, and
in the meantime, they try to breach their differences over
the main issues, including the nuclear and that, according to
officials in Europe and Persian golf, can take up to
six months. Obviously, it can all be over in a
much shorter period of time, but the expectation is six months. Wow.
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