Late-Round Perspectives: Davis Mattek

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Speaker 1: Davis Maddick is a content creator at sports Grid, host of The Take Cast, and co host of The Rodo Grinders Swolcast. He's a best ball bro a skater, a tied die shirt and bucket hat wearer, and he'll always be Fantasy Football's little brother. These are his Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. There's no better place to play best ball than an Underdog. There are leagues starting all the time, and you can choose whether you want to do a slow draft or a fast one when entering one of those leagues. And you don't just have to play best ball Mania to play best ball at Underdog. There's a wide variety of contests to choose from. You can even check out Underdog's other games as well, like pick Them right now. You can get in on the action with a deposit offer and free copy of the Late Round Draft Guide just by signing up and depositing. Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the Underdog app. When you sign up, use promo code late Round and make a deposit for a deposit offer and a free copy of the Late Round Draft Guide. That guide will then be emailed to you when it launches on July first. Again, that's promo code Late Round. Now back to the show. Every time I do one of these Perspectives episodes, I like the thing like right before I bring someone on to start talking, I always think about like my relationships with those people, like how long I've known them all that kind of stuff, And I always like open the show, you know, talking about like, oh, I've never met you before in real life, or oh do you remember when this thing happened? And I'm thinking about you, and I'm like, like, it's been like like what twelve or thirteen years?

00:01:44
Speaker 2: I was going to each other fourteen years? I think, yeah, yeah.

00:01:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, you you started out. How old were you when you started doing fantasy content?

00:01:52
Speaker 2: Eighteen? Yeah? My, my, my, my freshman year of college.

00:01:57
Speaker 1: It's so wild. You were the sports Wonderkin back in the day.

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Speaker 2: The sports Wonderkin people are saying it more and more all the time. Good thing I didn't stick with that branding because a thirty two year old man being calling himself the wonder can you know? It's it's it's really good that I moved on from that you had.

00:02:15
Speaker 1: But like, like I you're you're sort of like fantasy Football's little brother to our generation of fantasy analysts, right, like, like, yes, now you're older in the space to some, to some, I mean you're not like old by any means, but like you're obviously not you know, a twenty or early twenty something, you know, doing this fantasy content thing. The first time I met you, though in real life, we had known each other on Twitter and stuff like that, I think was in San Francisco at one of the FSA at the time. Yeah, and you were wearing the classic tied ie shirt and bucket hat at the conference, as most people do at.

00:02:51
Speaker 2: So we just kind of was it was sort of the style at the time. It was sort of the yeah, they for a sort of bucket hat weed sewed. I mean, obviously it served me well because it was such a memorable performance that people still remember it, you know, a decade, a decade later. It's just you know, like what I was twenty two, you know, twenty three, I was just looking. I was looking to make a wave, and the wave the wave was made. JJ was it definitely was.

00:03:19
Speaker 1: But like look, we you and I both we like went you went through your twenties knowing me. You saw most of my twenties. You just you're a different human being when you're sort of in your twenties. Then you graduate your twenties, you get into your thirties, you settle down a little bit more, you mature more. We're not We're not on the Twitter streets anymore getting in arguments about Rashad Jennings and stuff.

00:03:40
Speaker 2: You know, Shad Jennings, Oh my god, you want to talk about remember a guy for show? Jennings. That's a good I thought you were gonna go. I thought you were gonna go with Vincent Brown.

00:03:50
Speaker 1: Vincent Brown's a great one. I also have old audio clips from me making fun of your your auto tune voice that still lives. I have one where I have I make fun of you talking about Dorrin Dickerson.

00:04:05
Speaker 2: Uh.

00:04:06
Speaker 1: And then I also have one wishing you a happy birthday. It's probably like your nineteenth birthday at the time.

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Speaker 2: My nineteenth birthday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, But I have one that was like you saying, like, homeboy, Dorrin Dickerson is the man. Have you seen his? Forty time? But it was in like an auto tune voice, because.

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Speaker 3: Bro, homeboy Dorrin Dickerson is the man.

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Speaker 2: Have you seen his forty time.

00:04:28
Speaker 1: Those were the days, man, those were the days.

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Speaker 2: I for a while I had that bookmarked on my computer just because I thought it was so funny.

00:04:35
Speaker 1: No, I would try to throw it out. I think cord Ole Patterson there was one about him, just to show you how long that dude's been in the NFL.

00:04:41
Speaker 2: And that's crazy.

00:04:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty wild. But anyway, like you used to love the guys like Dorrin Dickerson back in the day, you know, you you infamously were very against like the obj archetype and stuff. And look, I'm not I'm not here.

00:04:56
Speaker 2: Long enough time. You know what, long enough timeline, don't I'll Beckham Junior. Right, let's just be honest to everyone, and let's just be one hundred percent real about it. I was right. Sammy Watkins and Odell Beckhams stunk and they always stunk.

00:05:07
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, well, you had a different process back then. I'm not saying this is like poop who you as an analyst. I'm saying this is just so different. It was so different. Whenever we would look at things back in the day, you know, you had sort of like the roto of his his mentality, you know, with your prospecting work and such. How would you as a fantasy analyst today, you know, how would you describe your process? Because you were once the big wide receiver guy. I'm I'm going to ignore the the sub two hundred pound dudes. I just want these six foot three, two hundred and ten pound dudes. Has it Has it changed? I know that it's changed, but sort of, How would you describe your process nowadays as an analyst?

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Speaker 2: I mean, the joking answer is that it's vibes based. You know, It's like I'm just kind of vibing. The real answer is that best ball has changed so much of this stuff because you are actually risking so much money per year. It was like ten years ago, you know, I mean I'd play some leagues, I'd make some bets with people. I mean, this was before you could even win a million dollars in the main event. You know, like this was. It was just a much different space. So it's it's like, I mean, honestly, it's more market base now, where it's like I'm kind of letting the market dictate decisions for me, and then picking and choosing spots where I think the market is wrong or right, and then really I mean, you know, the kind of the antithesis of what our whole bit was at Roodavis in twenty fourteen was like picking out liars, because outliers are actually how you win, you know, really, I mean definitely still numbers based, Like I like a lot of the you know, targets per rout run yards per route run rushing yards. So actually with running backs, I just don't care about talent hardly at all, like very very minimally, whereas I would argued with someone about that. So yeah, I mean really I would say it's it's honestly most market based. Is kind of how I view all these games now.

00:07:03
Speaker 1: And don't sell yourself short. You did do the Marquise Wilson breakdown on on your website back in twenty ten twenty eleven time frame. Don't don't forget that. Yeah, I mean, I I've definitely seen you grow as an analyst, obviously, but I think that's gonna naturally happen whenever you're starting when you're eighteen years old and you're you know, your brain isn't even fully developed at that time. Right now, you can like sit back and think a little bit more thoughtfully about your approach to things. Rookie drafts. You and I are in a ton of dynasty leagues together. We are there now in the rear view, really frustrating playing like I'm in so many industry dynasty leagues, and it's really frustrating because people just are sharp and they look at that, you know, they'll look at rankings and stuff and like it's just it's it's you know.

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Speaker 2: You don't get you don't really get a gift in these industries rookie drafts, you pretty much know what once you get the pick, who you're gonna get. Like, there's not really In fact, I probably of all the leagues were in I'm probably of like me and Leoni and Thorman is in these leagues, and Crane is in these leagues, and Sean Siegels and the I'm probably the one who's most likely to go away from ADP yeah, or a chiefs player. Like literally, it's really as simple as it gets.

00:08:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, we are in one that I commission with some buddies and stuff, which we started like five or six years ago.

00:08:24
Speaker 2: You don't have any picks in that.

00:08:26
Speaker 1: Yeah. That that uh, that that was created to get people into dynasty. It's called dynasty Virgins is the is the league name, and that one will sometimes we'll sometimes get stranger ADPs and stuff just because you know they're not they're not folks that are.

00:08:41
Speaker 2: It's not tight end premium either.

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Speaker 1: It's not tight end premium either exactly. So, but rookie drafts are in the rearview for the most part. I still have a couple left. They're just kind of dragging. But what was something that you saw in rookie drafts this year that you thought was just wild, that you thought was crazy?

00:08:57
Speaker 2: Two things? So the first one is Jonathan Brooks going ahead of bow Knicks. I mean, look, I get it's only I don't get it. It's like, oh, Jonathan Brooks, he's good, this good prospect, He's like, got no competition. But it's like the what do you win when you win? Thing? And it's like, okay, well, bo Nicks starts his entire rookie contract for the Denver Broncos. You passed on a guy you could immediately flip for a first and like probably get decent points out of for the next four to five years for a running back. Who what is Jonathan Brooks's rookie pick value? Gonna be in twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: Well, no, that's a good This is a good question to ask because I'm someone who is on the side of Jonathan Brooks was under Like the versus bo Nicks is a different discussion to me. Like I I cause I did a lot of research on you know, how quarterbacks accumulating value from year one to year two, especially whenever they're you know, higher draft picks and stuff, and like it's crazy, like bow Knicks could be horrible in year one and still have decent startup in decent cast back Zach.

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Speaker 2: Wilson got more expensive here too than year one.

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Speaker 1: Right exact Kenny Pickett did, or Kenny Pickett at least had a similar ADP from year one to year two, and so you know, from that perspective, I totally understand it. But I think overall, with Jonathan Brooks, I think that he was a value in rookie drafts this year, and I think that he was a little bit under a bit, you know, I think he was a little bit undervalued. But I do think the big question with Brooks, and I'm curious to hear what you think about this. I think the big question is if this acl is a problem in year one in any way, shape or form, and he doesn't perform up to the standard. Right, Yeah, what's gonna happen to his value entering year two? Because we could all sit back and say, oh, I know Jonathan Brooks towards ACL I know that he's not gonna perform that well in year one, but we also know that we get impatient.

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Speaker 2: Right.

00:10:45
Speaker 1: It's no different than when you draft someone in season long and they start out slow, even though they face like a really really tough schedule, you're still second guessing that player, right, And my question to you would be, do you think that the Dynasty market is gonna second guess Jonathan Brooks? Do you think they're gonna be like? Look cool it. We knew that year one was going to be maybe questionable, and we saw that it was a little bit questionable, and so we can still buy into that heading into year two.

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Speaker 2: No, it'll be it'll be a value decrease for sure. Like if he like, let's say he gets one hundred and seventy four carries forty two receptions something like that as a split of touches. You know, Chewba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are are still involved to some degree. Dave Canalis doesn't fix Bryce Young. I mean that's the other thing, is like, sure we can, we can be talent agnostic, but like this is the team that he's on. I mean, we know good teams, teams with winning records are more likely to produce good fantasy running backs than bad, losing teams. You know. I mean, I think you see a pretty significant I think it it maybe could be something like how we viewed Kenneth Walker at the end of last season to the end of the twenty twenty three season, where like they take Sharboney, he kind of he's really not that good last season. He falls like a good bit. I mean, best case scenario I think for him is something like what happened with Rashad White, where he doesn't really plays a rookie, doesn't play well, the price falls as a third round I mean, he was a second round pick. Rashad White was a third round pick, and then twenty twenty five, he's healthy, then he's good to go, and you actually end up like it ends up being a huge win. But if he if he does not play well as a rookie, he will he is going to lose value.

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Speaker 1: So did you think did you did you fade? Are you fading Jonathan Brooks in every format right now? No?

00:12:37
Speaker 2: No, I think he's actually a little bit underpriced on in Best Ball just based on like based on the odds of like the ACL's fine. His competition is so poor, you know, like like I actually liked Chuba Hubbard as a prospect, you know, if you want to really turn the clock back, but like he's just like fine. I mean I like for Shad White as a prospect too, Like he's just fine. But Brooks is like a B plus level prospect I think without the ACL, and I mean he's going after like Tony Pollard and Najie Harris and it's like, yeah, just in that range, I'm taking him for sure.

00:13:11
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think he's one of those players I talked about it on becoming a Best Ball bro this week where he's this past week. I've been drafting him a lot, just given the way that drafts have sort of unfolded for me. But I think he's one of those players where you could see, you know, in May when you're drafting and in early June you're trying to just find guys, especially who can appreciate in value over the summer, right, Like you want guys who you can get right now at RB twenty eight who turned into RB nineteen once July hits. And I think he's one of those potential players just because if he steps out on the field and oh wow, he's actually pretty healthy, then his ADP's going to skyrocket because a player and RB one in his class who had pretty good draft capital, who you know, didn't fall to like a premier spot per se, but it's not a horrible one. And Dave Canalis did what he did last year with Rashad White. I mean, like there's a lot of favorable things surrounded and Brooks to me was a really really good prospect. Like I thought that he was at least, like I shouldn't say really really like it wasn't like Bijon or Jamir Gibbs, but he was like Kenneth Walker.

00:14:08
Speaker 2: Javonte was like the next tier from that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah. And so like if all of those things sort of align and then historically we see rookie running match just be really really good values, I think that that Brooks can can you know, really become a value here in twenty twenty four what was the other thing that you wanted to call out with your with your rookie drafts.

00:14:27
Speaker 2: Oh, Ben Sinnett is actually going too low in these tight end premium leagues that we do because and this almost always happens when the prospect when it's the one guy I really remember it happening with was cole Comet, but Friarmouth did too. Where you're like the first or second tight end drafted in kind of a weird bad tight end class. It's almost like brock Bauers is like a different guy. But I mean Sennate kind of landed in like the nut spot where it's like they don't really even have a second wide receiver. Like if you maybe you're a big dots And guy, maybe you're a big Luke McCaffrey guy. They're gonna play super fast. He plays in an offense with Cliff that is gonna use someone's gonna need to catch the passes six yards away from the line of scrimmage. And I mean, I I could see an argument for taking him over, maybe even up to Keon Coleman. No, obviously, I don't think you'd have to. That's just not the way. It's not the way it works. But tight end premium leagues is like it's very similar to the next thing. It's like, what do you win when you win? Yeah, I mean if you if you had taken Trey McBride in Cole Comet and Pat Fryarmouth and the at the two oh eight and like your last four drafts, like you're laughing, You're you're laughing to the bank at tight end, you know, in these leagues, and once a tight end is good, go try and trade for Trey McBride in a league. Right now you're getting like no, like people are just rejecting you and not even sending counters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, do you I kind of felt that way about a lot of the tight ends in this class, Like like I didn't think the tight end cls and that's mostly in like two tight end Like we're in a two tight end league together in the the Insider League and then there's you know, tight end premium leagues and stuff. But like I've found that even like Eric Ahl or Theo Johnson, just these dart.

00:16:07
Speaker 2: Threats are not getting drafted for like yeah, uh, I don't know, you know, Spencer Rattler or whatever.

00:16:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, Like to me, it's just doesn't. It just didn't seem right. It seemed like the market didn't really fully adjust that. Are you drafting Benson and in underdog drafts too? Are you? Because well, there is tight end seventeen right now. It's it's pretty tough to get there.

00:16:31
Speaker 2: I would never I would never take him without Jayden Daniels right now. That's where it's at now. Now when when everyone like stops losing their minds a little bit and he goes back to like the tight end twenty two? Yeah sure, yeah, absolutely. I mean I think after Hunter Henry, the whole position dies like I'm not a Juwan Johnson guy, and it gets pretty flat. So like whatever, but I mean you have to take him over like real wide receivers. Now, I know you got to. You gotta take him over like real players who project a score. Like I promise you one thing if you're a big Ben sinate Bowl and I am. But I mean, like week one the season that dude's playing seventeen snaps, running ten routes and zach Ertz is gonna get five catches. Yeah, and there's nothing you could do about it.

00:17:11
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean look, that's the other thing too, is that Ertz is still there. I'm not saying that he's better. I mean I think that he's guaranteed. Yeah, right, Like I think that Ertz is likely pretty dusty at this point. But for sure that's something that's that he's got to compete with Johan Dotson. You mentioned horrible secondary metrics, and throughout his first two years in the league, I mean, he has not been nearly as good as what a lot of people like, I didn't mind him coming out, but a lot of people sort of pegged him to be. And so but what if John Datson's just been sort of the result of some crappy circumstances there in Washington's right possible? What if Luke McCaffrey is I think Luke McCaffrey could be a great slot. I don't think a ceiling is like massively high, but I think it could be a solid enough slot. So there are there is some downside, But like you said, like realistically, he could be the number two option, you know, in that offense behind McLaurin pretty quick.

00:18:01
Speaker 2: By, like by like week nine.

00:18:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, It's it's not that tough of a of a depth chart to climb in those rookie drafts. Who were some of your your late round dart throws?

00:18:10
Speaker 2: Uh super super late round uh Rashien Ali from from the Marshall Thundering Herds to the Baltimore Ravens. Let me let me pull up some of my leagues, all the all the tight ends, right, so like all like Eric all Tanner, McLaughlin, Jared Wiley, uh Theo Johnson, all of those guys I think are are pretty interesting. I actually did on tanking teams. I just made fun of him. But Spencer Rattler, I mean, like on on any team I had, that was bad. I took Spencer Rattler because you know, you just you just want to be able to have, like anyone who's drawing live to start at quarterback. He's not late round anymore. The doll was at the start of the season of rookie draft season. Lowby is I think pretty strong. Yeah. And Brendan Rice. Brendan Rice super interesting because I don't think he's that good of a prospect, but right, I agree they spent a pick on him with this pretty talentless roster. Yeah. And I saw someone make this point about Rice, and I thought this makes perfect sense. Which is a wide receiver who doesn't play special teams, which is literally Brendan. I mean, he's not even gonna return.

00:19:24
Speaker 1: Now.

00:19:25
Speaker 2: You only take him if you think there's a chance he could be your third wide receiver, because basically, if you're not a top three wide receiver, you have to play specials, And so being Justin Herbert's third wide receiver when all the other wide receivers stink is like maybe a pretty good job.

00:19:38
Speaker 1: Yeah. I didn't like Rice either as a prospect, which is unfortunate because obviously he's the son of the greatest wide receiver or one of the greatest wide receivers of all time. But yeah, I mean I think that he makes sense. Is at least a dart throw, you know. And I don't even think that he's like a horrible, horrible final round pick and a Justin Herbert stack right now over on underdog Like there are there are worse final round picks that you can make. But the rashiina al Lee thing, I want to go back to that I talked about him as as a guy who I was I was drafting him and Anya Smith a good bit, you know, in the in the final rounds of drafts. Smith just someone who's kind of like that Curtis Samuel type prospect.

00:20:15
Speaker 2: He's good too, and he's an older prospect, so I think there's like a better chance of him just getting on the field right away.

00:20:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, they have a need where they could throw him in the slot if they want to. And with Devonte Parker being out, he's not in all the same kind of player as an aas Smith. But what that like. If Parker were healthy, maybe he would have been playing on the boundary a little bit, and then they throw DeVante Smith into the slot a little bit more than he's seen and where he's played throughout his career so far. But now without that like relatively safer boundary receiver. Not that Parker is like amazing, but without that player, maybe an Ia Smith does get into the slot a little bit more. But rashin a Lee man, it's so strange to me that people really weren't on and haven't really been on him. I mean, you have Keaton Mitchell who's coming off a disastrous knee, and you have Derrick Henry who's thirty years old and you know, is showing some signs of breaking down, right, and you have Derek Henry could only might only be there for a year. And Rashid Ali with the stuff that I look at, I know that he went to a smaller program and so numbers are inflated a little bit, but that's usually reflected in draft capital. He had really good marks throughout, Like he was a good pass catcher. He's got some juice. Like I think that he's someone that everyone if he's on your Dynasty waiver wire right now, is something that everyone should be stashing because he's really like would we be shocked if he's the number two running back to start the season for Baltimore? Like Justice Hill is fine, but like, but.

00:21:38
Speaker 2: Justice Hill is, like is what he is? Like, there's kind of like, yeah, he's like passing downs like safety blanket right exactly.

00:21:45
Speaker 1: Like I don't think that it would be that shocking because I don't Thinkkeaton Mitchell's gonna be gonna be ready to go. So yeah, I think that Ali has made a lot of sense, you know, in those final rounds. I'm gonna do something a little bit different with the episode today compared to other perspectives episodes. I want to just pick your brain about a couple of tweets that you'd sent a couple controversial ones. Were they clickbait? Would you would you say they were clickbait?

00:22:08
Speaker 2: Davis, It's always it's always clicked. I'm always trying to get the clicks and the bait. I'm trying to churn the waters. If you see me tweet, just know that what I was thinking before that tweet was how can I get the people going.

00:22:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I believe you said that you would have zero percent exposure to any of these players, and then you said that you want all of the other players that we'll be talking through. But I picked out most of them. I'd say like seventy five percent of them from those two lists, So basically guys that you're avoiding and guys that you're targeting right now in Best Ball drafts. And I thought some of the names were kind of interesting. I agree with some, disagree with some one of them. I even texted you about and we were going back and forth with a little bit. So we'll talk about that. But let's start with the first guy, and we can we can kind of double dip here because you had Brandon Ayyuk on your zero percent exposure list, which I guarantee you you're gonna draft Brandon Ayuk at some point if you haven't already.

00:23:01
Speaker 2: I still haven't. I mean, I'm about eighty drafts in on underdog and I still have not.

00:23:05
Speaker 1: It's impressive. That's impressive. And then you had Deebo though, on the opposite list of guys that you're targeting. So talk to me about why you're doing this when there is a gap in ADP. But it's not like massively dramatic between Ayuk and Deebo. It's really like, where are you positioned in your best ball draft right now? If you're a middle round positioning, middle of the round positioning, then you'll have a chance to get Ayuk if you're sort of you know, at the front end of those drafts, and you can get Debo. But why are you in on Debo and out on Ayuk?

00:23:35
Speaker 2: Well, I take Adams over Ayuk, which is why I'll never get them so because there's never really a situation where Adam, like, no one else shares that opinion with me. So I'm just able to take as much Adams as I want. And I mean, I think the summary for why Ayuk instead of Debo is very simple, which is no player really is ever going to have a better ceiling projection in a given week. I mean, Tyreek Hill, I guess would have a better ceiling projection. But we're talking about a guy twenty twenty one fourteen touchdowns, one hundred and thirty six touches, twelve touchdowns last season on ninety seven touches after the I mean, look, a very down year for him in twenty twenty two where he was injured. Debo gets the I mean, look, let's just be honest about it. Fake plays he gets. Kyle Shanahan draws up fake, cheating plays for him to score touchdowns. Brandon Nyuk doesn't get. I mean, how many points do you think Debo ads every year on literal fake Kyle Shanahan nonsense, like, probably fifty points a year on dumb stuff. Ayuk doesn't get that. Ayuk has to win down the field. That's how he gets his points. I'm not, obviously, I'm not saying Ayuk is this terrible player, and oh my god, I can't believe you Fish are drafting Brandon Nyuk. But one thing I'm just consciously trying to do is be less of a you know, percentage edge, Like I'm trying to take more real stands to create leverage for my portfolio relative to the field, because Brian Hooper did this analysis of all the drafters in the field last year in Basketball Mania four, and I was like one of the top like one fifty most nitty players in the whole pool in terms of like drafting guys close to ADP. So like, I'm consciously trying to change that. Although just for whatever it's worth the price, the way the prizes work this year, you're actually going to be rewarded greater for drafting nitty or and just advancing more teams. And if I got the hand pit guys to have in Week seventeen, I mean, Deebo might be in the top five guys i'd want just because he can score three touchdowns on six touches. It's just what he does.

00:25:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair, especially if you like the competition in terms of who you would be picking, like the opportunity cost you know, around Ayuke, if you like Devonte Adams more than Ayuk, I've been splitting mostly like I've just kind of not taken. I think that's fine at that at that area, and obviously the game environment in Week seventeen for San Francisco is just really attracted, really good Troy.

00:26:06
Speaker 2: I mean it also is for the Raiders too.

00:26:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't mind that game either, But yeah, I mean, like, like you know, if you look at their numbers too, I yuk last season was unbelievable, and I do have a little bit of fear that he's not gonna be Like if I look at my projections right now, I think he's projected at like wide receiver fourteen, wide receiver fifteen or something like that. And I do worry a little bit about just natural regression hitting a little bit, Like you had a yards per route run last year over three, which is just.

00:26:34
Speaker 2: Who's more likely to regress the guy who gets all this stuff close to the line of scrimmage and it's on Yak versus a guy who gets deep targets from Rock Purty. I mean, both can regress, and we've seen the regression with Debo like, so both can, but I think it's more likely Ayuke does.

00:26:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that. I mean, look, to me, San Francisco is just an offense that I'm not going to be upset and investing in. I know I'm not gonna be upset, Like I like they're gonna regress, probably from a touchdown standpoint, because they had so many offensive touchdowns last year and we see that number fall back year over year, so you know, maybe they won't have as many. But I thought that was going to happen this past year too, and it didn't happen. And so like, the environment for them is really good. The contingent upside for them is really good. I think I was just I wasn't shocked that you like Debo, because I think I think anyone in San Franisco makes sense. I think it was more shocking to see I Yuke on the list of avoids. But again, I think the crux of the argument seems to be you taking more of a stand on a guy like DeVante Adams as opposed to you just like being like, hey, there's something glaringly wrong with Brendon.

00:27:35
Speaker 2: I yeah, there's nothing, There's nothing wrong. I just like and like, I think Adams actually has like some sneaky outs of not being a raider too, of like it's like twenty five million dead cap but it's the raiders, So like who cares, Like if he just wakes up and says I don't want to be here, Like it's the Raiders the twenty five million dead cap. I mean, what is that when you're a dead team? Anyway?

00:27:57
Speaker 1: Right right? Another guy on that list was a second was Saquon Barkley. So talk to me about Saquon. Is this is this a toush push fade for you?

00:28:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is just like it's like Barkley. Well, actually it's not just that. It's first that, but Barkley's best production as a fantasy player has been catching passes and adding yards after the catch and stuff. And I mean the one The Eagles are a low volume offense relatively speaking anyways, Like they just don't have a lot of plays because they run the ball so successfully, so the clock shortens and Jalen Hurts doesn't really throw it through his running backs, Like it's not that he doesn't throw at all. So like if Saquon Barkley, I don't know, let's say DeAndre Swift was actually still on the Eagles and he was like a sixth round pick or whatever, I might still be interested in running that experience back just because it was fine enough. Yeah, and Swift really ran that on the touchdowns. I think he didn't score what he didn't score one for like nine weeks in a row or something like that, like kind of crazy. But Barkley is in a situation where he's no longer like the only offensive weapon on his team. I mean, if you wanted to be kind to him, you'd say he's the second best weapon on the team behind aj Brown. If you wanted to be rude, you'd say he's the fourth behind Hurts and DeVonta Smith. But really, it's just like for Barklay to to get there, he's gonna have to score a bunch of touchdowns from like twenty yards or more. Because I don't care if Jason Kelsey retired. Jalen Hurts is the success rate on the Toush. They went forty eight to fifty on the Toush. Push it. It is unstucked. You cannot do anything to stop it. Regardless of who the center is, They're they're not going to replace that play.

00:29:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think with my fear with a total fade on Barkley. And again I'm not saying that you're gonna totally fade every single one of these guys, especially as you get into like hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of drafts. But my one fear with a total fate of Barkley is number one. Uh, you know, we could we could obviously see, you know, in an individual game, I think that Saquon still hype pathetically has just as high of us as anyone else. Right, that's one thing. He actually doesn't look that bad in my projections too, while accounting obviously for Jalen Hurts doing his thing. I do think though that like when you think about, like, you know, with projections, I'm not just you're looking at median outcomes, right, and you want to think about, like, Okay, where could this really rise and where could this really fall. I don't think that there's a lot of a big range with his projection, right, Like I don't think there's like an area where all of a sudden he's just going to be massively good, because I don't think the Jalen Hurts stuff is just going to go away. And then, you know, I do think that he probably has a decent floor, but that's not necessarily what we're looking for, you know, in our best ball draft, so I've drafted him. I like getting Eagles mega stacks at times whenever I'm in the back half of the first round, But I can definitely understand being lower on Saquon this year. One player that you're lower on and that I've been talking about being lower on for weeks now is Josh Jacobs. So talk to me about Jacobs and why you're fading him.

00:31:00
Speaker 2: I mean, Josh Jacobs's best skill set he's offered for an NFL team is basically like the Kyrien Williams skill set of like you just don't kind of take me off the field. I can play ninety percent of the snaps. I can pass block, I'm a fine goal line rusher, I'm a fine third down back. I'm kind of just fine at all of these things. And mattlin Floor has just never done that ever. Like go go look through every Packers team. I mean it's like we all are are forced to watch AJ Dillon and we're like, god, this stinks. And like Matt Lafloor is like, yeah, AJ Dillon, boy, he really stinks, and then he gives him forty percent of the snaps the next week, like it's it's nuts. They just are philosophically committed to like a sixty forty split. And Marshaon Lloyd was a sixty forty split guy in college. Like he's like he won't even have to It's like he won't even have to do anything different than what he just did for USC. He'll just come in and get eight carries and two catches and be on his way.

00:31:53
Speaker 1: It seems weird to me that people just seem to be completely ignoring marshaon Lloyd, Like I feel like people are just assuming that Josh Jacob and look, obviously anything's possible, so he might, this might end up coming to Fruition. But you know, marshn Lloyd pretty good prospect, not like an amazing prospect, but at the very least a very good change of pace back Like that is why you won him on your NFL team, And how does that not fit perfectly with what the Packers kind of need and do alongside Josh Jacobs and so yeah, like you're talking about Matt lef like and what Lafleur has done historically, go back to Tennessee. He was the offensive coordinator when they were giving Dion Lewis Lewis over Derek freaking Henry.

00:32:35
Speaker 2: People do literally forget Matt Lafleur gave Deane Lewis two hundred and fifty touches a year Derek Henry was on his same team.

00:32:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like it's just it's crazy that, you know, I just don't think that we should be ignoring what we've seen from Lafleur, what their actual actions have been. Yeah, they paid Jacobs, they they they sign him this offseason. They wanted him on their team, but they also lost Aaron Jones. They wanted a switch up from from Jones. I think also, like people are just kind of like looking at what Aaron Jones did and they're using that to justify Josh jacobs fantasy performance. I think Aaron Jones a better running back than Josh Jacobs. Like Aaron Jones is one of the best receiving running backs football, and so to assume that Josh Jacobs can step in, who has had plenty of question marks as a receiver throughout his career in terms of like high volume stuff, you know, fifteen plus percent target shairs, Like we haven't seen that from him super super consistently, and so I think there's just a lot of red flags with Jacobs where he's going, and it's just weird to me that he's going, you know, he's fallen in best ball drafts recently, but it's still strange to me that he's been going fairly significantly ahead of some of like the other like a round or two rounds later, you can get guys who project similarly, even if you don't like those guys. One of those guys being another guy that you're fading Rashad White. This is one that I do disagree with. I think that this year's Rashad White might be Rashad.

00:34:03
Speaker 3: White way that the way that people are are sort of talking about him and analyzing him, it's almost like a copy paste of what we said last year with Rashad White, except now we have a season where from a points per game perspective he.

00:34:17
Speaker 1: Was top ten in football and he got off to a slower start. Obviously, touchdowns really helped him down the stretch. But you know, to me, he's someone who projects very very well, and I understand that those projections can go south. And I'm not someone who only drafts off projections. The fact I do the opposite. But you know, White is someone who has shown that he can be a player who, like you said, like a like we saw with Kyron Williams last year, and what we've seen with Josh Jacobs just a dude on the field consistently, and if there's anything that is good about his profile, it is pass catching. Like his his ground game work is pretty putrid. But if you look at his ground game work compared to other Tampa Bay running backs that we've seen over the last couple of years since Rashot White entered the league, he was just as good as Leonard Fournette year one, which I know is not saying much, but I'm just saying it's not like he was, you know, it's not like White was agreed at it, yeah, right, And then last year he was better than the alternatives in that offense, which again I understand it's like Chase Edmonds and Keishan Bond, they're not good running backs. But I don't think that he's necessarily. I don't think we can just conclude that he's a horrible, horrible running back on the ground because a lot of those metrics that people look at are very team dependent, right. It matters what's going on in front of you when you're a running back, and that at the very least, he has his pass catching profile. So my question to you with Rashad White, obviously you know, why are you fading him? Why don't you like him? But then I think the wild card to many is Bucky Irving, And is Bucky Irving playing a role in why you're afraid of White?

00:35:47
Speaker 2: I mean, Bucky Irving is not playing a role in the sense of like, oh, Bucky Irving, I'm so scared of Bucky Irving, like he's this great player. It's just that they tried Chase Edmonds, they tried Sean Tucker like they just were They were just throwing crap at a wall last year and none of it stuck because those guys were terrible. My primary concern though, is mostly Canalis related, where Baker was awful, then he gets Canalis, then he's good. How much of Rashad White playing eighty five percent of the snaps was a Canalis thing? Like if you just go back and look at when he's called plays, that's kind of what he's preferred. And if I've got it's actually kind of feel similar to uh grashot as I do about Kyen with like the Blake Korum in the foot and it's like if I'm hitting this uncertain situation where I got to make a bet one way or the other, and it's not particularly clear who's going to be right at the moment, I want to at least feel good. I'm betting on a guy who I think is like pretty talented, sure, and I don't. I don't. I think White is a good pass catcher at the NFL level. I think he's like a bad rusher, like like likely like one of the worst guys who's going to get as many carries as he will and so and I structurally, I mean, I definitely like Pacheco more than him. They've separated a little bit and adp they were closer before. But structurally, I prefer to take Terry McLaurin. I prefer to take Xavior Worthy. I prefer to take Mark Andrews. I prefer to take Trey McBride, not really kincaid, Like just normally my preferred structure is one running back through five rounds, yeah, not two, and very rarely is he going to be the first one.

00:37:31
Speaker 1: Yeah. I've I've realized that more and more after giving some advice about White a couple of weeks ago, where I was like, oh yeah, like from a projections versus where he gets drafted standpoint, he looks like somewhat of a value. But the more I've drafted and experienced it and just seeing where his ADP falls and such, yeah, I agree. I mean, look, look I'm taking Andrews over him in best ball. I'm taking McBride ahead of him in best ball. I think that a lot of the wide receivers there are, at least in tree from like a stacking standpoint, where like, you know, you can throw a dart at Jayden Reed if you want to, or you can throw a dart at Terry McLaurin, or you can throw a dart at you know, if you did get Mahomes in round four and you can somehow get Xavier Worthy as well, you know you can you can go that route more. There's a lot of stacking potential. So because of that, I just not had as much Rashad White as I thought I was going to have. But I do think, you know, going back to him as a player, I would say he's probably a below average rusher. I would agree. The thing that I don't agree with, not from you, but just what I've seen with White is Bucky Irving being a better pass catcher than Rashad White. If you look at if you look at Irving's profile coming out compared to Whites. People forget how good Rashad White was as a pass catcher as a prospect, Like that was like the thing that got me. That's what comp That's part of the reason he was comped, for me to David Johnson, where he actually had decent explosion from a testing standpoint, Rashad White did, and then the size matched up a lot with David Johnson. And then it was the receiving profile that matched up really closely to David Johnson. We haven't seen the explosion I don't think, just visually in the NFL with Rashad White, but I do think that he's a better player in prospect than what we're getting with Bucky Irving. It could be it could be a situation though, where Irving just hurts, which I think is probable. Irving just hurts Rashad White more than Irving has standalone value in fantasy.

00:39:23
Speaker 2: That that's almost certainly to be what it is, where it's just like his there the mere existence of him playing thirty percent of the snaps on an offense that I think will probably just be a little bit less efficient because Dave Canalla seems like he's really good at his job. Yeah, you know, like that that's mostly where my where my fear is.

00:39:40
Speaker 1: Let's go to Alvin Kamara. Uh, He's very difficult for me because again, when you look at just projections, I like to at least start.

00:39:47
Speaker 2: Going to project good project.

00:39:49
Speaker 1: I mean, he's gonna project like top ten good right, like realistically, and he goes in that like mid RB two range to late RB two range, And it's just really difficult for me because I look at the projection, I'm like, oh my god, this is an obvious value. But then I look at like historical trends and age related stuff, and it all looks bad for Kamara. But you're taking a stronger stand. I'm very much in the middle of Matt market with Kamara. You're taking a stand where you're seemingly not drafting him.

00:40:14
Speaker 2: Why is that, Well, you can just get Elder pass catching running back who gets a good Week seventeen Dome game, and Aaron Jones the pick right after him, and I prefer that. I also I prefer to take JJ McCarthy to Derek Carr, So it's like doubled up the reason why that's good. I also prefer the packers on the board after there for a week seventeen correlation to like they're just like all the contextual stuff goes to Aaron Jones. Here's some Alvin Kamara games from twenty twenty three, so this is when he's twenty eight, not twenty nine. Three receptions for negative eleven yards and a twenty eight to six win against Carolina. That's that's one of my favorite. Nine rushes for nineteen yards and a loss to the Los Angeles Rams fourteen rushes for fifty Like, you guys get the picture. Yea, he just He's a twenty nine year old running back who really was always a good explosive rusher, but never he was never the poster boy for success rate. Right, he would have a lot of negative plays which used to work when he was fast and strong and young, and probably is not going to work so good when he's twenty nine. Now, could Alvin Kamar literally catch a hundred passes? Do I see a scenario where that happens in this year? Literally? Yes, it's totally possible that you get buried that way. But if Alvin Kamara buries me that way, you know I'll see another day.

00:41:42
Speaker 1: I'm a little on Tree two by Clint Kubiak being there. I think that that could be totally an interesting wrinkle in how they use him and et cetera. But it could also go south. It could also just be, Oh, I really like Kendriy Miller and I want to change things up in this backfield. So yeah, I mean I'm at market, but it sounds like, you know, there's plenty of reason to you know, be a little bit lower on him.

00:42:01
Speaker 2: I mean both like Tony Pollard, Jalen Warren, I mean even like David Montgomery. Like David Montgomery could just score like sixteen touchdowns, you know, like he could have the gun last year.

00:42:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean like Jamior Gibbs gets hurt David Montgomery's in RB one. So yeah, yeah, I understand that too.

00:42:18
Speaker 3: Uh.

00:42:18
Speaker 1: Naji Harris, I was a little surprised to see Nause here. Not that I think that he's an unbelievable player, uh, but you know, I think that, you know, Uh, Karine on becoming a best ball bro talked about Jalen Warren being arguably his highest rostered player this year. But look, it's see Arthur Smith offense, run heavy offense, tell me. Why you're not into Nause is this is this just like a spillover from last year after.

00:42:41
Speaker 2: I mean, part of it is definitely ideological. The other part of it is that if he's going right there next to his teammate, who I think is better. Like also, we are now to the stage of Nause's career, the same place we got with Clyd Edwards Hilaire where it's just like all right enough already, Like we don't care that you were first round pick, Like if you're just really bad, we're just like straight up not gonna play you. So like Najee Harris going to like twenty three percent of the snaps, I mean, I'm not saying it's probable, but it's definitely. I mean, they turned down his fifth year contract option, Like it's pretty clear he's not gonna be on the team at any like high salary moving forward, and I just don't I think the issue with Nause is I see no upside. I see no way he really buries me in this offense. Like quarterback play is gonna be bad, volume is gonna be low. How many touchdowns are going to be available for the twenty twenty four Pittsburgh Steelers, you know, and like, maybe I'll end up being wrong. And Jalen Warren is just like a total scat back and he averages nine point seven underdog points per game. Like that's possible too, But I just think nag like kind of stinks is not explosive, doesn't ap And I love this range for running backs. I like Tony Pollard, I like Ramandre Stevenson, I like David Montgomery, I like Brian Robinson Junior, like kind of like running back twenty two to thirty nine, you know where quorum goes. Like, that's the range I want to be living in. And if there's a bunch of other guys I like there, then why take a guy that I just don't like and don't just don't really believe in.

00:44:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean part of it for me is I think there's enough. Number one, there's obviously, again going back to the contingent upside, Jalen Warren gets hurt, Naji Harris is gonna see a lot of volume more than likely in then offense, and you know, in a given game, that can be beneficial, you know, for what it's worth. Atlanta over the three years with Arthur Smith and two of them. Look, it was Coudero Patterson and one. So he's a pass catcher, Bijon Robinson a pass catcher. So we have to take this with a grain of salt. But they were top three and running back target share in two of those three seasons, so I think that's at least a little bit interesting. There's not a ton of competition in Pittsburgh's offense either, but I do think that it favors a lot of that favors Jalen Warren more than it does Naji Harris, Like I'm gonna have more Jalen Warren at his cock because he does go a little bit later. Usually, Well, it's its flip flops depending on and I.

00:45:02
Speaker 2: And to be honest, you know what I should say. Jacob Sanderson after I posted that, sent me a tweet that he got Naji Harris at I think pick one oh two, Yes, Like sure, yes, I'll take I'll take Nick Chubb. I took Nick Chubb at pick one thirty in a draft the other day. Like if you just give me insane outrageous stuff like that, Like, yeah, I'm not gonna fight it.

00:45:22
Speaker 1: Yeah you're gonna see that. Nase's one guy that happens, and obviously the injured guys like you talked about Nick Chubb and TJ. Hockinson and happens for two where like Hawkins is probably not gonna play or at least give you anything usable until like week twelve next year. But you know, it'll sometimes fall past like one p fifty like into like like to a range where the opportunity costious isn't isn't super significant, and I had no intention of getting like a Hawk or a Chubb. But every once in a while when they fall, it's like, yeah, whatever, two more guys that you're fading. These are lower tiered ones. Jerry Judy, talk to me about him.

00:45:55
Speaker 2: Jerry Judy is not gonna kill me. There's just no there's no multiverse that exists for Jerry Judy, you know, puts it all together in a year six year five. Yeah, you're five year five, you know, in a bad outdoor weather, playing with a wide receiver who's way better than him, probably a tight end who's way better than him, and maybe a slot wide receiver. Honestly, Elijah Moore might be better than Jerry Judy. Like it's pretty close between who's been more disappointing between those two. You know, the offense is going to be super run. It's just like, sure, I could I draft four percent Jerry Judy and maybe he gets fourteen points in a week to advance me. But like I got don Tavian Wicks ranked ahead of him, and I think Dantevian Wicks could win me multiple weeks. I think Dantevian Wicks could score two hundred and fifty PPR points. You know, like I think he's a really good player. So I'm just out amount.

00:46:46
Speaker 1: Well, let's let's just touch on Wicks because he's one of your targets right now. Are the guys that you're drafting a lot of I'm in the same boat, and I want to ask you. You know, I've talked about Wis. I've talked about his you know, yards per out run in year one being above two, and players who have done that history have given us really good output in year two and beyond. You know, obviously he doesn't have the same prospect profile as a lot of those guys, because I'm talking like Justin Jefferson.

00:47:09
Speaker 2: I liked him as a prospect. He played on this horb we played on this horrible team. He played. He played for the Virginia Cavaliers, which, like if you've watched any college football, I mean, like these dudes like they stink. And his junior season he got hurt. His final season, but his junior season for this awful team that won six games, he like led them in yards by like four hundred yards over every other player on the team, led the team in touchdowns like he like he he I think was just kind of in a horrible situation in college.

00:47:39
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean, look he I didn't. I think the overall sentiment around Dontavian Wicks entering the NFL was not this right, not what he did, not what he did year one, and the guys who did what he did in year one. From a yarchs brout run standpoint, you know, now, Nikua is also kind of an outlier. But you have players I'm talking like Jamar Chase, Justin, Jefferson, Odell Beckham, like literally the best of the best prospects that we've seen coming out are the ones who are part of that list. So obviously those players are gonna have higher hit rates in year two and beyond, you know, beyond just looking at yards per route run. But Dantavian Wicks looks on paper like a very very insane value. And I've talked about this at this point. People are probably sick of it because I've been bringing him up for the last like two months on the show. My question to you though, with wis like is his ADP gonna? Rit? Like it feels like everyone yeah, like like why is his ADP still where it's at? And do you think it's gonna I mean it has to eventually go up by at least a couple of rounds, right.

00:48:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think the answer is one is like it's pretty the the Wicks stuff is like pretty insular to like like super virgins, who are who are doing this? And then the other thing is, I mean, look, our our friends over at Establish the Run dot com are massive market drivers for this stuff. And I mean I can I can pull up I can pull up the rankings. But it like when they move, like Tyler Lockett is like really high in their ranks. So like you can tell when you're in a draft with UH with the with an ETR guy when like Tyler Lockett goes to like pick ninety or whatever. Yeah, So if he's not that high in the default rankings on ETR or on your stuff or on Korean stuff or wherever that is is definitely one part of it, Like the because it's hard from a projections perspective to get the Packers wide receivers to make sense because there's four guys who all play and two tight ends, and like you might be giving a little bit to bow Melton, who actually closed out the season pretty good as well, Like so you just got the only the only ADP that doesn't make very much sense for the Packers guys is Read, where like reads too high. Dobbs, Wicks and Read should probably all be much closer together.

00:49:48
Speaker 1: I agree. The reason why I still get some Jayden Reid is because there are times where at that point in the draft, some of the other wide receivers, it's like, okay, am I gonna like reach on Keon Coleman or a lad or something like that, Or am I because there are some builds where I go like, like I I need to get a wide receiver. Like it's just I don't.

00:50:08
Speaker 2: I don't want to have none of James because clearly he's a baller.

00:50:12
Speaker 1: But I agree, I agree that like the from a value standpoint, Wicks greater than greater than greater than Reid especially. I think that what we're likely to see too is a rotation. I think that if you're betting on one of the let me ask you this. If you're betting on one of the Green Bay wide receivers, agnostic of where they're getting drafted, which wide receiver would you bet on as being like a good like like potentially elite player in the league.

00:50:37
Speaker 2: Potentially elite? I would actually say read because he's got the kind of ineffable qualities of like you totally agree, he just is. He just is like very athletic. He just is, you know, he just is like a great player. Wicks. I think I need to squint more to see it. The I mean, you know, the thing that everyone already says is that the floor has been comparing him to Devonte Adam in terms of like the route running and the I mean, you know, that's not my game. That'd be a better question asked like Matt Harmon, But for my I did want to mention one thing is the yards per route run stuff can be kind of fake on guys like Wicks because the Packers run that rotation. So it's like Tyreek Hill last year had like, what was it, like a four point five yards per rout run. It's like the greatest of all time, but like he only runs like twenty seven routes a game because he just like runs a route and then goes and sits on the sideline and tags Cedric Wilson in when he's not going to get the ball. So something to note for that.

00:51:34
Speaker 1: Well, Also, I'm pretty sure Bo Mountain's yards per route run was really really high, and then Jayden Reid was also that over that two point zero mark, so like, yeah, there's definitely some team circumstances going on here where it's not just the wide receiver. But you mentioned Harmon. Harmon charted Wicks and it looked really really good, but he also charted Jayden Reid and it looked really really good.

00:51:55
Speaker 2: So when I would expect them all to look good because Jordan Love just like ran out of his mind with a face second, so they should look good. Yeah.

00:52:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, So so I I think read and and Wix like, like, I think Reid is the guy that could because like he comped for me to Stefan Diggs coming out, Like I thought that he could be that impactful of the players a little bit like he has more of like the I don't want to say this as in like I think this is him, but like that debo upside of like getting more end a rounds and getting some stuff closer to the line.

00:52:24
Speaker 2: Plays reads, getting the fake Shannahan plays offense.

00:52:28
Speaker 1: Right, and so that that's why I think that he definitely deserves to be the the wide receiver one from an ADP perspective, Jayden Reid, because I think that the ceiling is by far the best to be the most consistent piece in that rotation, to be the guy that they hypothetically might not take off the field, whereas they take off Christian Watson so he can save his hammies. And you know, maybe Romeo Dobbs a little bit too, who they seem to just like, and he had a good playoff too. But that's sort of the way that I'm I'm looking at the Packers whiteouts. The last one that you're on your fades list is Darnell Mooney. Is this a I just like other guys there is this he's dusty. And then if you have a falcon stack, are you just only going after pits in London and just ignoring maybe Rondell would be your pick over over.

00:53:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean, I just everyone gets to have their biases, right if you see things, if you see things through my bias, Rondale never really got a fair chance in in Arizona. He's going to an offensive coordinator who's been with the Rams, who just found a full time role for two too, ot Well, who's maybe the only player in the NFL who's smaller than Rondel More. I just I think I think Mooney is like such a dog to get targets that matter in this offense where it's like, again, what's the point you know, I particularly after like pick one forty, Either I'm like filling I'm like papering over holes at quarterback and tight end because I'm way behind the eight ball, or I really would like to be taking guys. So I think are are real difference makers.

00:53:58
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. The other too, is that I don't think people realize how bad Darnell Mooney was last year. From like a yards perrout run standpoint, he was under one yards per route run. And I actually ran some a query and I looked at which players in since twenty eleven past year three in the NFL. So we're talking about, like, you know, these like more veterans, guys who were kind of past the early stages of their career. Past year three had a yards per route run below one while running two hundred and more routes, So they had poor yards per route run rate their veterans in the league, and I was just looking to see, like how many of them actually bounce back and just had a good season later on in their career. The answer, you don't have. I mean you literally the best outcome was John Brown one year having a wide receiver, like a low end wide receiver two season. Otherwise you get guys like Kenny Britt, who had a decent enough season once. The other Steve Smith, you know the Eagles, Steve Smith. Cole Beasley was one. Like, you're just not getting really these like high upside players. I just I think you're right that at the end of the day, you know, I might have some Mooney and Stacks, but that's that's the extent that I'm gonna gonna go after. I don't think he's gonna have that much standalone value. Let's look at some guys that you're targeting heavily. We've talked about some Jalen Wattle was one that you brought up. I love this call. Feels weird that his ADP dropped pretty significantly, or like you can get him.

00:55:22
Speaker 2: He's rising better last year than he was the year before.

00:55:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, So talk about that, talk about why you're into Wattle.

00:55:28
Speaker 2: Yards per outrun higher, targets per outrun higher. He just I mean one, he ran bad on touchdowns and it felt like he got injured every game, Like every game he would come in and he'd like roll his ankle or like land weird, get the wind knockout. And maybe you could argue a guy broke his leg in college and you know, I don't know, maybe he's too small, maybe he's too soft. I mean, I would probably bet against that stuff, especially because he kept getting injured in these games and then coming back in. I mean, he ran more routes per game than Tyreek Hill. So you're talking about a guy who led the most efficient passing offense in the NFL, higher yards per pass play than the forty nine ers and the Chiefs. He leads that offense in rounds. That's just a really good bet to make. I think.

00:56:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the other thing with Miami. Have you experienced yourself just drafting, like getting a lot of Miami stacks just naturally, just given the way that ADP sort of sits, Like I get a Tyreek Hill, you know where he goes. Let's say I get him at one oh four.

00:56:27
Speaker 2: Oh, I got a scorching hot take you're not ready for.

00:56:29
Speaker 1: And then okay, I'm ready to hear it. But you know, I go Tyreek Hill and then I'll get Jalen Waddle in the second. I have no problem getting him late second. I think that's where he should be drafted. And then you know, you can get Devon h Chan too. You could just get the Miami stack in your first three rounds and then get too late in your set the issue, and you can even get Amari Cooper for that Week seventeen correlation in round four, and all of a sudden, the first four picks of your draft just correlate really strongly to that game. Now, obviously it's not necessarily gonna be we don't know, but it might not be the most attractive game in the world, but it's it's a team that's fairly easy to stack when you're in certain positions in your draft. Obviously, if you're in the latter parts of the first round, you're not gonna have a Miami stack. But what's your scorching hot take about Miami stacking?

00:57:16
Speaker 2: Okay, well, the first is is that I really don't want to take Tua playing in the cold Weather game in December. I mean, obviously I'm fine taking Waddle and Han and most certain stuff, so I prefer I mean, I have one quarterback a lot of the time by then, but I like, if I'm kind of in jail, I like to do like Evan Ingram and Trevor Lawrence or Jameson Williams and Jery Goff or Kyler Murray and whatever. But the other scorching take is as of right now, and there's no way I can do this for the entire summer and get away with it. But right now, I'm just taking Justin Jefferson third. Overall, I'm taking him. So I'm taking Justin Jefferson over over Tyreek and over Chase and over Saint Brown, who that's starting kind of starting to flip. So that's like a portfo Leo based decision. I mean, well it's not really because I think Justin Jefferson's the best wide receiver in the NFL. He gets ten ten eleven Dome games one of the two, and JJ McCarthy is like, fine, you know, I mean, I maybe he's even really good, but I know that Justin Jefferson would smash with Nick Mullens. You know that Nick Mullens had four hundred and eighty passing yards in a game last season, I think four fifteen, you know, just throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson. He's just that guy, like he was the number one pick last.

00:58:31
Speaker 1: Year, right right. I'm interested. I haven't researched it for whatever reason, but I've done a lot of research on like, you know, pass catchers with rookie quarterbacks and it not being like a good thing for the pass catchers. But I am curious when you sort of filter that out and look at only like early round wide receivers or like top half, Like has there been an instance. I can't think of any off the top of my head where you have a rookie quarterback with a top five, top six, even first round wide receiver. So have to dig into it to see if there's like anything that we've seen historically to make us feel better or worse about Justin Jefferson. Isaiah Pachecko is one. I did a study earlier this week, Davis where I looked at prospect scores and how those prospect scores might affect how we draft in redraft in these running backs. And what I found was and this scares me because I was I still am relatively into Isaiah Pachecko. But it's kind of crazy how bad the hit rates are for top twenty four running backs who had bad prospect scores.

00:59:34
Speaker 2: Because they can get replaced for any reason.

00:59:36
Speaker 1: Right regardless of their age, like whether they're late in their careers, earlier in their careers whatever. I didn't look at age. That wasn't one of the layers of this, And so it does scare me a little bit about Pachecko. Scared me a little bit about Kyen Williams. What do you see with Pacheco? Because look, I agree, like I on paper, Pachecko seems like a value right now, especially when he falls into like the fifth I mean, it just seems like a very obvious pick. What are you seeing with them?

01:00:02
Speaker 2: Uh? I guess what I'm seeing is that the team, literally what did they invest at the running back position this offseason one point one million guaranteed dollars to Clydeward Hilaire, not even not even a seventh round pick, only only undrafted free agents, Amani Bailey, Generic Prince from last season he's on a reserve futures contract, and Carson Steele. So it's either Isaiah Pachecko is in the same role we literally just saw him in or Clydeverd Hilaire is the best pick on the board. I mean, those are those I guess those are your options, And to be honest, I'm fine middling those. I'm fine taking Pacheco at is ADP and taking Clyde with the literal eighteenth rounds sometimes too.

01:00:46
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, the other thing too with Kansas City is last year, you know, Pachecko was like a high end RB two, mid range RB two, Kansas City scored like thirty seven. Yeah, like that's for bat That's just not gonna happen again. I mean, if you look at the history of Patrick Mahomes in the NFL and what his offenses have done, they're usually over fifty touchdowns and so I think that alone makes I say a Pacheco really attractive. Cooper Cup is another one. You know, last year still almost had a twenty five percent target chair per game rate, despite you know, the way that people might view him. His yards per rout run did drop to one point eight six, But it's not like one point eight six is that bad of a yard for out run? Are you? Are you just looking at Cup and saying, probably gonna see a twenty five percent target here in this offense, and he's going in round four, So I'm just gonna draft that.

01:01:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think Cooper Cup is a case of we overreacted a bit too much to I mean, I guess he wasn't very good in their playoff games and maybe, look, maybe this will be a case where when the milk goes bad, it doesn't unspoil, you know, which is like kind of my thesis for a lot of players in general. But just like with Cup, like watching the Rams play, I wasn't watching Cooper Cup being like, oh, yeah, he's past it. He can't, he can't move anymore. Like he basically just looked like Cooper Cup to me. You know, they he's a fourth round pick, Like why can't How surprised would you be if Cooper Cup scored more half ppr points than Akua. You'd be surprised, but you wouldn't be like that's impossible, that had never happened.

01:02:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a lot of what happened last year too, is like a lot of between the ears stuff with Cup, Like he wasn't necessarily confident enough. He wasn't totally like that, Like he made some mental airrs that we've seen him be such a clean wide receiver historically, and last year there were just some like weird drops and stuff like that where even still his numbers ended up being fine enough. I mean, there were definitely times where you were frustrated because you know, he didn't give you the production that you wanted out of him. But you know, now he has the offseason and hopefully there's not as much like turmoil to start this season as there was last year, you know with Cup like that, I mean, I think.

01:02:48
Speaker 2: He came back from a hamsterering injury and at eight for one to eighteen and seven for one seven forty eight in a touchdown his first two games back. Like right, I don't think he's done and dusted and so he's just got like one and I don't think he's like hardly ever a pick that kills you there, I guess unless the hamstring goes again, now, I guess I will be very sensitive to it's it's August third Cooper cup is not practicing for a week with a hamstring, then I'll be like, Okay, all right, I need to I need I need to not be too exposed to this.

01:03:19
Speaker 1: I feel kind of similarly about Mark Andrews, where you know, last year is banged up. His numbers took a little bit, like his his uh, his targets per out run did drop a little bit. But look at what Baltimore did offensively this offseason, not a lot, right, Like, they add tes Walker, but I don't think that's going to be a significant piece of the offense. Obviously they add Derek Henry, but I'm talking pass catchers. What do you like about Andrews?

01:03:44
Speaker 2: I mean, they did what they said they were going to do and throwing the ball more. Was the first time Lamar ever got over four hundred passing attempts. Andrews's a dot went down a little bit, but he scored six touchdowns in ten games. Lamar won the MVP like he was an efficient pass he didn't need to pass as much, but he was more efficient as the you know, as the total attempts went up, which is like a legitimate concern about like you could have been, Like, are we sure Lamar can remain efficient at five hundred passing attempts per season and Odell Beckhams are replaced by Devontes Walker. You know, it's just like I get the guy who's been one of the best fantasy tight ends for the last five years at a discounted price because younger guys were better last year, because like Sam Laporta was awesome, Like I might, I might bet Mark Andrews straight up for more fantasy points than Laporta. Really, like Andres can lead that team in targets. He can get more targets than Flowers.

01:04:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think Laporta is just overdrafted right now in general. So because you can get McBride and Andrews where you're getting them, So yeah, I mean, I agree, I think Andrews. The easiest way to think of Andrews is he's one of the tight ends that could break fantasy football. So he's a sure so so get them all right. I don't want to go through we have a ton of names here. I want to give you one more to talk through Antonio Gibson. Now, you mentioned Remandre earlier that you were okay enough in getting them. I personally think that Remandre is sort of in the Zemere White standard dead zone back, Like, I think there's a chance that we just see fine enough production out of those guys. But again, going back to the Prospect Score study, they both fell below an eighty prospect score coming out and now they're being drafted as RB twos. There's just a lot of historical evidence from like a market standpoint that points to these guys being overdrafted or play like, you know, you could get a Ramandre Stevenson production four rounds later. But is that part of the reason why you might lean on Antonio Gibson or are you just going Gibson because U think he's a good player and you're just gonna draft good players.

01:05:50
Speaker 2: I think he's a good player. He's finally separated from a coaching staff that just like hated him for whatever. I mean, it's because he fumbled. They just hated they just hated the fumbles. I mean even last year, like all of his metrics were good, you know, his success rate was fine, his rush yards over expectation was fine. His breakaway run percentage was high, although there's a question of like how much you want that out of a guy who doesn't get very many carries, Like it's probably not as valuable. He's a again, I mean he's a good He actually had fifty nine targets last season, like despite pretty much getting benched. And I think Drake May is good. I mean that's gonna be my my difference versus the market on everyone else's. I think Drake May is good. I think he's probably I mean I would have taken him at too if I was the Commander's not that my opinion really means that much. I think it's crazy to expect Jacoby Brissett to play like eight games, which is kind of what the market is doing right now, like Drake May's quarterback twenty nine on Underdog. People are just like terrified, I don't know, you know, this doesn't really happen anymore, right, who's the last guy to I guess Pickett sat five games?

01:06:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I don't disagree. I think that's I think it's a proper to with May. Not not only that, but May himself kind of has a little Josh Allen in him, Like yeah, like there's there's a chance that may is a lot more mobile than I mean, we saw it in college. But I'm just saying transferring to the NFL that you know, he at least has that kind of upside, not Jayden Daniels fantasy upside, but like some upside if he does have that Josh Allen in him, Yeah.

01:07:21
Speaker 2: One hundred percent. I mean I just think and so that like that, and that just kind of reverberates around to everyone else on the team of like if the quarterback play is better, like we saw this c J. Strade last year, When the quarterback play is better than the market anticipates, everyone on the team is transformed. And I mean Remandre is like pretty much just a replacement level guy. Now there's no real third running back on the team, which is pretty helpful, Like there's there's not a guy you'd be worried about turning it into it. But worst case scenario, you're getting, you know, a pretty useful passing down back like not really that dissimilar from James White on this team for a decade or whatever upside scenario you've got continued in value. Maybe he just comes in and really impresses the coaches and they don't hate him the way the commander's coach hates him, and he's just awesome.

01:08:08
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, in a draft, I don't know exactly where their ADPs are, but would you be drafting Kamani Videll over or or after Antonio Gibson?

01:08:18
Speaker 2: I mean that I guess that would be one I would middle. I definitely have Gibson rank the head because I mean, his median projection is so much like Kamani Vidal's has a lot of zeros and his is medium, you know, like it's just it's just the way it works. But uh, there's no chance that Week one Gibson gets nineteen carries and and leads the Patriots in rushing, Like no chance. Unless Ramandre is injured. Kimani Vidal could just be the leading rush I mean he could be. Yeah, I think and eighty rushing attempts or whatever for him this season.

01:08:52
Speaker 1: Yeah. All right, Davis, before I let you go, you're you're the king of some some spicy takes. You like the clickbait as we talked about earlier, I do love it. Give me one one hot take for the twenty twenty four Fantasy Fall Season. It could be anything. It could be about roster construction, about a particular player. Just give me anything I need a Davis fire take.

01:09:14
Speaker 2: I'll do. I'll even theme it for this show. Justin Fields is on the Best ball Mania five winning roster. He he's the Steelers start out one in four. They say, you know what, enough, we actually we don't need this, We don't need to do the Russell Wilson experiment. Fields comes in scores, you know, twenty two points a game running. You know, he's a he's a great runner. It actually fits so well with weirdly enough, like he's like Desmond Ridder but like good, you know, Desmond, Desmond Ridder, but like not awful. Yeah, Desmond Ridder but not awful. And like we've seen that work with Arthur Smith. I don't know how much I believe in this hot take, because like I've been drafting a lot of Justin Field. But maybe I should back off of it because there was the Athletic Report. Mark Cabali put it out this week, like one hundred percent Russell Wilks is starting Week one. It's not a question like it's it's just happening. But of all the guys who were going after like pick one fifty, I'm like, yeah, that guy can score thirty points in Week seventeen and it'll be pretty unique too.

01:10:19
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like it. I like it. Davis, thank you for hopping on. Let everyone know where they can find you.

01:10:24
Speaker 2: You can watch me every day on TV sportscrit if you have free at support of Television sportscred dot com. You can listen to the sports Grid, Fantasy Football podcast or the take Cast. If you just search my name in your podcatch or all that stuff will show up and I'm JJ.

01:10:39
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Late Round QB all my stuff as usual. Over on lateround dot com, you can right now pre order the Late Round Draft Guide, or you can just sign up over on Underdog and make a deposit. Use promo code late Round and you will get a free draft guide when it launches on July first on behalf of myself and Davis always everyone, thank you for tuning in.

01:11:17
Speaker 2: M