The Players That the PGA Tour Can’t Afford to Lose to LIV

00:00:00
Speaker 1: I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset.

00:00:02
Speaker 2: When I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset. And when I find my ball in a brid Egg Friday Egg, the dreaded Frida Egg, Frida Egg, Frida Egg, Brian Egg, Frida Egg, Bride.

00:00:11
Speaker 1: Egg Lie, I'm about ready to run off of the hump.

00:00:35
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Frida Egg Podcast. I'm Garrett Morrison, and today we're asking which players can the PGA Tour not afford to lose to Live Golf. The reason we're talking about this right now is that Live just wrapped up its first season last week and is already working hard to fill its twenty twenty three roster, and so by the end of this year, it's likely that a few more top players will join the Saudi backed breakaway League. We're not here to tell you which guys those will be, because frankly, we don't know. But what we can do is discuss what it would mean if certain players left. That's the topic. Here to dig into it with me is Andy Johnson. Andy, how you doing.

00:01:15
Speaker 3: Garrett, I'm doing wonderful. I uh you know this is a free agency period. I uh you know, there's no conditions with Live, and there's still so many unknowns without them doing like a real full season. But I do believe that there is a known that some big names are going to go to LIVE in the coming weeks, and that's what prompted me to write about this for the newsletter. And I think that it will be a very who knows, like depending on who goes, like what it looks like when the dust settles, you know. I saw until Kolsha said that they were they were hoping to have their roster set by the end of the year. So you know, if if they're set, like who knows how the dust settles in what Kapalua looks like next next year.

00:02:03
Speaker 2: And I don't know what to make of the claim that they'll have their roster set by the end of the year because so far they haven't been that organized in signing players, right, I mean, do you think he was just like saying that to you know, that's his that's his wish that it that will happen, Because that just struck me as like, if they get to sign a big player in February right before they start up again, then they're going to probably do that.

00:02:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a lever, right, And I saw that they were they were expanding roster sizes to sixty because they're they're expand they're adding a like substitute player for every team so that they'll have a fifth Like I can't imagine that many teams are going to have a fifth player that just never plays that's a significant player, right, So those are gonna be players that are probably Asian Tour players, and maybe some of them like uh, you know, let's just use she Wan Kim, who played in all of them, right, Maybe he's one of those guys that if they have somebody that decides to come on February, you know, right before the first tournament of the year, that he is knocked out and he pops in, all right.

00:03:14
Speaker 2: So basically what you were trying to do with this experiment was to not necessarily forecast who is going to go. I mean, there have been rumors, persistent rumors about certain players, but if we found out anything in the past year, it's that if guys say that they're loyal to the PGA Tour, then sometimes that means that they are and sometimes that means nothing. And so we don't really know at this point. Who's going. We've heard rumors about some players more than others. What you were really trying to do here was to talk about, you know, what impact certain player departures would have on the PGA Tour, Right, I mean this is yeah, you were trying to I think you're trying to establish a sense of stakes, what is at stake in this offseas and basically right.

00:04:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, And and really I think this all hit us this year and there was a flurry of people leaving, and you know, the idea of like who's really important, who's not? Right, And there are a lot of ways that they could go about this, Like I think the way Live has obviously siphoned some big names that were really important to the PGA Tour. Camera Smith, Brooks, Koepka, Bryson, de Shambeau, Phil Mickelson. I mean Phil Mickelson. He's not a great player at this point in his career, but he is one of the all time great players on the PGA Tour. Right, that is a significant loss. So when you think about it from a sense of like Live has already accumulated a substantial amount of talent and right now, the PGA Tour's best defense best, you know, selling point centers around they have more competitive talent than live, and that they also get OWGR points. That's those are the two big selling points, right, They have a pathway into majors, they get OWG they get World Golf Ranking points, and that they have the more competitive tour.

00:05:13
Speaker 2: And they're on TV. They're on TV. That's not insignificant either.

00:05:17
Speaker 3: The reality is is that a few of the wrong players go and Live might end up having the balance of we have a more competitive golf tour. You know, you can argue and quibble that the format will never be as competitive as the PGA Tour. That's fine, But if they hold more great players than the PGA Tour, the PGA Tour is in very, very big trouble.

00:05:42
Speaker 2: So basically, what you did is that you arranged players from the PGA Tour into tiers of importance essentially Tier one, these are the most important players whose departure would be a major blow to the PGA Tour, and then you go down to tier two, tier three, et cetera. So why don't you explain your tier system a little bit? You know, maybe I explained it all there and then we can kind of go into Tier one.

00:06:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Tier one, you're talking like, if one of these Tier one guys goes, this is major, major news in all of sports. One of these guys going would signal some aspect of a shift of power, I would believe, and I don't know if it's necessarily out of the cards that one of these guys might go. That's that's the scary thing about this. You know, if you're a PGA Tour fan, if one of these guys go, combined with what they have already, you could, you know, you would be at the point of being like, you know, the talent's pretty similar.

00:06:48
Speaker 1: Tier two. These are big names for you know.

00:06:52
Speaker 3: People that follow golf regularly. These are really really big names. These are not the names that like your friend that just casually tunes in at majors might not be like super intimate with, but these are huge names in the world of golf. And listen, like, one of these guys going isn't a big deal, but a few of them that starts to cause a problem. Tier three are these are guys that are really good players. These are probably bottom end of the roster Internet, like, you know, bottom of the roster Ryder Cuppers and just not necessarily established stars yet, but players that are very very good and like, you know, I think like this this is the stage. These types of players are kind of what give the tour a really big advantage. So these are important players, but they are not like huge names.

00:07:45
Speaker 2: And a lot of these players are on their way up or on their way down. Yes, have had great careers and are kind of on the downslope there or are potentially building towards really great careers.

00:07:58
Speaker 3: And then Tier four is just like, these are really good players. They're good golfers. They are guys that could win in a given week. They are names that fans recognize, they have a lot of them have been doing it for a long time, or they are on the up and up. But at the same time, you know, if they go to Live, people are gonna be like people are pretty much gonna be like who cares if they go to Live. But I think the bigger impact, and you've started to see it with tour events is the non you know, this year will be the elevated series of events. What you see is lives impact on the tour. I think has really felt on their B and C tournaments and even down to D tournaments. Is that when you lose Abe Answer, when you lose co Crack, when you lose Sergio, you lose players like that all sudden tournaments like Valero, all of a sudden, their fields look really weak. And so these these players like will they aren't and they're easy to make when they go like it's like, oh, who cares about cares?

00:09:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's it's like death by a thousand.

00:09:05
Speaker 1: Cuts exactly exactly.

00:09:07
Speaker 3: Like a good example would be, like, you know, Charles Howell is a great example of a guy like this, Like do I care if Charles how Howel's in an event?

00:09:15
Speaker 1: No?

00:09:15
Speaker 3: But at the same time, this is a guy that's played on two or for twenty five years. People know who he is, right, And that's what this, this, this list of players is. It's like, you know, in this group, you have like Kevin Kissner, right, this is Tier four, Yeah, Tier four.

00:09:30
Speaker 1: Kevin Kinstener is a very very good player.

00:09:33
Speaker 3: He can win a lot of different tournaments, you know, most of them on shorter golf courses. And you know he's got a group of like he's got like a following, I know, like Riggs at Barstool loves Kevin Kistener, so he's got like a fan following, but like if he goes to live, nobody, nobody's gonna be like, oh, what is the too gonna do because Kevin Kissener's not around. But then like you start to like when Kevin Kissener's not around when you get some of those smaller events, like particularly Kevin, cause if it's a small event on of course it's Bermuda Grass, you know, then you're like, wait, Kevin Kissler would have been on this leader board, you know, and he's not, so you know, in that in that group, I guess we could start at the bottom.

00:10:16
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think that's a good idea I had.

00:10:19
Speaker 1: Like Kisner.

00:10:20
Speaker 3: Tyrrel Hatton, who Yrel Hatton like is a bigger name player. I just I haven't ever seen him do it. He's obviously played well in certain things, he hasn't played well in majors, and I just don't think he's that big of a loss.

00:10:34
Speaker 2: Maybe he's bigger in the UK. I don't really know. I'm not sure that there's like a huge Tyrrel Hatton fan base. But then again, I'm an American.

00:10:44
Speaker 1: So he seems to be like kind of a guy that would profile for live.

00:10:48
Speaker 2: I'm shocked that he's not there already, Like I can't believe that Tyrell Hatton is not currently a live player.

00:10:56
Speaker 3: Like there is like a profile of of of of live players.

00:11:01
Speaker 2: Yes, especially the British guys. Yeah, you know that whole cabal of Poulter and Horsefield and Westwood and all those guys. It seems like Patton kind of fits in with them. But maybe that's just judging from Afar. I don't know.

00:11:15
Speaker 3: I've heard he's a delightful guy. He's like a delightful guy. He has his en course demeanor and everything. But I have heard from people like he's super aware. You know, there's something about like people that don't feel embraced by golf's I guess powers that be. I think that is a profile case, like for live players.

00:11:39
Speaker 2: Patrick Reid being the most extreme example of.

00:11:42
Speaker 3: That, Bryce Inhamba and I think Brooks, even as much as he would hate to be thrown into a bucket with but like I think Brooks has some of that same energy.

00:11:52
Speaker 2: Uh huh, I agree, Like trip.

00:11:54
Speaker 3: On a shoulder, Yeah, everybody's against me, Like there is like an aspect of that, Like I think I don't like comparing Harold Varner with those, but like Harold Varner would be one that I think would fall into like a similar bucket, right, much.

00:12:09
Speaker 1: More likable, Yeah, much way more likable.

00:12:11
Speaker 2: But but similar in what you're Yeah, the structure that you're talking about. Why don't we actually lay out some of the players that you named?

00:12:18
Speaker 3: Sorry and so Sepstraca, Seamous Power, who just won another meaningless event on the PGA Tour. I'm sorry, but you know, sorry, Berma, Yeah.

00:12:30
Speaker 1: Corey Connors.

00:12:32
Speaker 3: You know something, I originally had a category that I said, like maybe maybe the tour wants him gone, and Corey Connors was on it, so that he'd never play on a Presidents Cuff team again.

00:12:48
Speaker 2: Trevor Immlman request.

00:12:50
Speaker 3: Thomas Peters, kh Lee, Aaron Wise, who I think we'll have a big year this year, Sahitha Gala, and Davis Riley, Like, you know, those last three are really guys that I think could have really big years and work their way up into the next year. But right now, like you know, if Davis Riley goes, everybody will kind of be like, oh, what could have been?

00:13:12
Speaker 1: You know, blah blah blah.

00:13:13
Speaker 3: You know, I think his year and and the year Cameron Young put together, Like I don't think Davis Riley was that far away from having a Cameron Young type season last year. He was super close to having like Cameron Young in a way overshadows how good of a year Davis Riley had.

00:13:32
Speaker 2: Davis Riley's numbers are great. Aaron Wise had a really solid statistical season last year and seems to have figured out some things with putting, which has been the thing that has held him back. He's a great driver of the golf ball, has won a couple of times, but has stayed kind of under the radar. Thomas Peters is kind of the outlier for me in this group. Is he really a PGA Tour player?

00:13:52
Speaker 1: I don't know.

00:13:52
Speaker 2: He's good.

00:13:53
Speaker 1: I always have a you know, I try and loop a line eye in whenever I can.

00:13:59
Speaker 2: Okay, that's valid, there's a bias.

00:14:02
Speaker 1: I liked that.

00:14:03
Speaker 2: I'm surprised that Thomas d Tree wasn't here.

00:14:05
Speaker 1: I almost put him in. He's got off to grease.

00:14:07
Speaker 2: He's really good. Yeah he could have a great season.

00:14:10
Speaker 1: Thomas die Tree, Yeah, yeah he could.

00:14:12
Speaker 3: So you know, that's that might be a little bit of light eye bias, but he could also he was a name that was rumored in the uh in the Guardian article by you and Murray.

00:14:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, you and Murray. I mean the phrasing in that sentence. I actually pulled this out because it struck me as strange. I was like, this could be anything, but the fact that it's appearing in a reputable publication is giving me pause and making me think that there might be some sourcing here. But the way Murray put it in that article is that speculation in Miami has linked Patrick Cantley, xanderschoffle Mito Pereira, and Thomas Peters with live and all of those names, aside from Peters's name, have been ones that I've heard before, obviously, But that is what that article said. And so yeah, kind of a bummer to see Peters's name show up. But again, he fits kind of a profile, right, You would slot right in with Martin Kimer's team or something.

00:15:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think I mistake not having a Meadow in this tier.

00:15:11
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, he fits there, doesn't he. Yeah, well, you put in your article in the newsletter, you put et cetera. Yeah, at the end of this list, there are more guys in this list than we just mentioned. You could put a number of players in.

00:15:25
Speaker 3: There, so that gives you the idea of that type of profile. And like again, those guys going, it's just it's another cut, you know, it's just another wound to the PGA Tour, because that's that's really like I think this is those are the type of players that would profile like your you know, Kevin nah, Jason Kokracks, you know, they are you know, Charles Howell to extend, I don't think Charles Howell was ever that great of a player, but you know, Taylor Gooch would be a good comp in there, like where Taylor Gooch is a really good player, but nobody really cares about Taylor.

00:15:59
Speaker 2: Gooch point maybe abe answer, Yeah, I think he would be verging on Tier three, yeah, because he's that good, but he isn't a player that people were necessarily fascinated by before he left for Live.

00:16:13
Speaker 3: All right, so tier three. Moving on Tier three, I had Tom Kim and Sung jm in here. Obviously South Korean stars, young guys. You know, everybody saw him at the President's Cup and they've seen you know, Tom Kim win a couple events. He's nineteen. Sung JM has factored in major championships, has won, has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour. Those guys are are in here, up and comers. Tony feed now is here.

00:16:42
Speaker 2: I think Tom Kim fact check real quick, real quick. He's twenty twenty twenty nine. He turned twenty in June. But the messages that he's young and also tremendously appealing, as as he's shown in the past few months or so.

00:16:58
Speaker 3: I think something that like just while we're on the young thing and Cameron Young's the next name. But one of the things that's working against the PGA Tour is the fact that the tour has gotten so young that youth talent is dominating the PGA Tour. I believe works against the tour because there's less loyalty to the PGA Tour.

00:17:22
Speaker 2: And guys are just sort of cycling in and cycling out. They see that their peak, the peak of their careers might be a little bit shorter. I'm sure that they have noticed this right that not many players are sticking around for ten fifteen years at the top of the game. So a lot of these young players might come in with the understandable attitude that I better get mine before you know, the opportunity kind of slips away.

00:17:52
Speaker 1: I mean Cameron Young's comments were you know, his lip comments were really something where he actively I don't have the quotes in front of me, but effectively was like, you know, I wish I was more established.

00:18:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, well he was basically admitting, yeah, I heavily considered it. Yeah, you know, I was almost there, but a couple of factors held me back.

00:18:15
Speaker 3: So it's it's just interesting, Cameron Young. I have Max Homa in here. Shane Lowry obviously a major winner. Any major winner is a big deal. Max Holbas won a bunch of tournaments. He's obviously very popular player social media wise. And then I have Adam Scott, Justin Rose and Billy Horschell older guys I've just been around for a while. I don't I don't Billy could go into Tier four. I just you know, he was kind of more of a humorous inclusion here.

00:18:46
Speaker 2: And because he is the tour spokesman. Yeah, that was part of your rationale.

00:18:51
Speaker 3: Was I was wondering, you know, who would be out there, you know, just saying the most absurd things.

00:18:57
Speaker 1: If Billy's not doing it.

00:18:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, the guy in the media center would be the saddest of all if Billy went to Live, you know, they would they would really miss just having an automatic quote. And and by the way, this is something about Billy Horschell that I really appreciate because he's gotten popped a couple of times for things that he's said, but he keeps coming back. You know, the guy still makes himself available. There are a lot of players who have been really sensitive about the reception of things that they've told reporters. Billy Horschell keeps keeps coming back and keeps giving quotes, keeps interacting with the press, and I appreciate that so much about him.

00:19:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've really turned a corner on Billy.

00:19:36
Speaker 2: He's yeah, I know you've You've mentioned this before, so.

00:19:39
Speaker 3: He's uh, he's just a uh, he's a one of one, which which I appreciate. But I think, like Adam Scott and Justin Rose, like you know, Adam Scott is an interesting one because, like you you obviously see the Australian team there. He's said nice things about Live. He's also said nice things about the tour. But like that's one where I feel like one day, you could hear information that he's going.

00:20:06
Speaker 1: One day you could say he's committed. It wouldn't surprise me if he goes.

00:20:10
Speaker 2: Now here's why I think that Adam Scott might belong in Tier two. For one thing, he's obviously a legend. You know, Adam Scott is by far the most legendary player in this tier. But you have him in this tier because his playing ability is not what it once was. He's on the downslope of his career. But if he were to jump to live, I think that there are a lot of younger players who really respect and admire Adam Scott and that his moving would be an influential thing for them.

00:20:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't disagree. I mean, like I think like the Phil.

00:20:51
Speaker 3: There was a lot of negativity with Phil in the tour and he kind of one of the mistakes that Phil made was airing his dirty laundry with the tour. His leaving would have had such a bigger impact had he just left and he had been quiet about his issues with the tour, because it would have been like, whoa wait a second, this guy who's like the tour has given so much to by making all of his grievances so public in a way now that I when you bring up that point, like Adam Scott, who's been very politically like you know, neutral in the thing, but you know also like has been like a stand up tour player for a long time, going would have a massive impact.

00:21:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, and people love him. I think that Phil. A lot of players loved Phil, and he gave them a reason to sort of make a break from him. But I think that Phil was always sort of a polarizing figure in the locker room. Adam Scott is somebody that you never hear anybody say bad things about, and so I think that, yeah, that would be impactful. The other one that people might point to in this tier and say that he could be higher is Max Homa, partly just because of his social media profile. And I'm not saying that that's a shallow thing about him. He has this kind of genuineness on social media and in his interactions with fans and media people. But he has become one of the more important voices modern voices in the game and very loyal to the tour right, which is which makes it this discussion almost moot.

00:22:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's been so loyal that I don't think this needs to be talked about a lot. But he's won a ton. I mean, if you look at PGA Tour winds over the last whatever, eighteen months, eighteen months, he's up at me. Yeah, he's up at the top. And and you know, I think from Max's standpoint, for me, like I just like to see it at bigger event a little bit more. An important part of this is your stardom off the course. Your name recognition is very important. But you know, from the competitiveness of the tour is important for you to be a like a very good player. And I don't think like I can't put I can't put Max up with with some other guys that are in Tier two that have like done it at the biggest stages, like you know, like comparing Max, putting Max in the same tier as will Z l Tours, who who's literally been like a ball hanging on a lip here and there away from two majors. You know, this year, winning the Safe Way back to back is great, but like that seeing you duke it out and like close in a major championship, that's a little bit different.

00:23:46
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00:24:08
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00:24:43
Speaker 2: All right, Well that brings us to tier two. So who's in there aside from Zoie again?

00:24:47
Speaker 1: You know, any of these players?

00:24:49
Speaker 3: What I wrote, any of these players would be an enormous loss for the tour, but a survivable one, as long as it's not a mass exodus. So these names in a vacuum are very big names. But if three or four of these guys go, that's that's a huge problem for the tour. Right, So Scotty Scheffler this one, he's right on the verge of Tier one. I just would like to see one more year. I think like the fact that he got off to that such a hot start this year and didn't like the idea of and the only reason he's not in Tier one is the idea of anybody being number one in the world at the end of the year in May was.

00:25:30
Speaker 2: Unfathomable anybody, anybody else, anybody but Scheffler.

00:25:35
Speaker 3: And the fact that he's not number one in the world, Like his play didn't slip off that much, but it kind of like his play regressed a little bit back to like what he was before that really hot run. So that's just my my I don't have like. This is not Scotty Scheffler hate mal like. I just like to see guys do it for a little bit longer than a year.

00:25:56
Speaker 2: I actually agree with this. I think that he needs to have another burst like he had when he was just winning everything, because he has tailed off a little bit toward the end of this year, and you know, the names that are above him and Tier one have just done it for a little bit longer. Why don't we run through the rest of the names in this list and then come back to a couple of particular ones, because I think that there are at least a couple here that we can discuss a little more in depth.

00:26:23
Speaker 3: All right, Jordan Speith, Patrick Cantley, Xanderschoffley Xalatorus, Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Holand and Sam Burns.

00:26:32
Speaker 2: Why don't we start with Sam Burns because that's the odd one for me. I'm like, how is he not a Tier three player? I'm willing to be convinced though, because obviously he's very very good at golf.

00:26:43
Speaker 1: He's won a lot and he pro.

00:26:46
Speaker 2: He hasn't won massive events though, has He's won like two valspars? What else is he won?

00:26:50
Speaker 3: I think he's one, let's see, I go pull it up here, But he's won two valspars, he's one.

00:26:57
Speaker 1: Charles Schwab, he's one. Anderson.

00:27:01
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, so some people think diss Anderson is is a really significant win, and all respect to those.

00:27:07
Speaker 3: People, but but yeah, I think, like I guess, yeah, if you were going to call him to question one one guy here, I could see Burns being it.

00:27:17
Speaker 1: I think he's really good. I think he's also like.

00:27:20
Speaker 3: He would be a name that that would profile to me as like of I know he's really good friends with Scheffler, which is like probably one of the things that would sway him back. But like and I think, like, I think there's an agency connection to somebody else.

00:27:34
Speaker 1: That went to the to Live. He's he's got the same agent as Bryson.

00:27:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's GS worldwide.

00:27:41
Speaker 3: So he he'd be one just to keep an eye on. But like I I agree, he'd be on he's on the fringe. He's the last name and Tier two.

00:27:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's down there for a reason. All right, Well why don't we talk about then Patrick can't lean Xander Schoffley because you know, these two guys are buddies. I think they have similar profile in terms of their careers and their abilities, Like they're kind of in a similar spot, except that obviously schaffle A has had more success in majors to this point, and of course both of them have been rumored to be very very interested in going to.

00:28:15
Speaker 1: Live from what I've gathered, they.

00:28:19
Speaker 3: Each have individual offers, and they have an offer this bigger if they come together, where they would each get more money if they come together. So you know, I was putting vacation buddies together. If these two guys go together and like nobody else goes in this tier, it's a big blow to the PGA Tour because half the top six in the world are then live players, and that doesn't include Dustin Johnson, who is probably a top ten player in the world.

00:28:48
Speaker 2: I think it's a big blow to the Ryder Cup too, because these two guys are among the very very best American players, and if they both go all of a sudden, that Ryder Cup roster starts to look a lot thinner in the in the way that the Team Europe roster has started to look.

00:29:04
Speaker 1: Kevin Kisser might move up a tier, then, yeah he might.

00:29:08
Speaker 2: He might prove himself to be a great match play player after all. But uh yeah, so can't lay and Sholey if they leave. The way that I'm hearing you talk about it is that this is not the apocalypse. This is a really big blow, but it's not the biggest deal of any player. And so what prevents can't Lay and Shoffle both leaving from being as big of a deal as like just Colin Morikawa or John Rahm alone.

00:29:39
Speaker 3: Leaving the way the PGA tour model works. The players that are uber value valuable for the PGA Tour are the ones that are around for a long time. They are Rory McElroy, where you are a relevant player for decades. Tiger Woods would fall into this bucket. Jim Furick, Phil Micholson, Ernie l these types of players even like you know, Steve Stricker was a very valuable player, Davis Love the third. You know, these types of players who are around for long times and are are like, you know, it's weird, but like Ryder Cup figureheads. The tour doesn't own the Ryder Cup. They have nothing to do with the Ryder Cup. But like those players that like, oh, these are Ryder Cup like you know, every year automatically locked in Ryder Cup players. And when I think about those players, when you lose those, Dustin Johnson was one of those players. Phil Mickelson was one of those players. Cameron Smith was probably becoming one of those players. You know, I think Bryson from a popularity standpoint was one of those players, but like, these are the players that shift power. And at this point, the lines have been drawn, and when one of those big players goes, that is so much more now than it was at the beginning because the lines been drawn. Tiger and Rory are on this side and you're with them, or you're over there and you're with them, And like, at this point, to me, a massive name defection signals potentially who's going to win long term.

00:31:17
Speaker 2: And you don't think that a can't Lay Schaffle a defection would be that kind of indicator.

00:31:22
Speaker 1: No majors, no players, no majors.

00:31:25
Speaker 2: In Can't Lay's case, not really all that close and also not a whole lot of mainstream or casual appeal because of the dial tone personalities. I think that's more true of cant Lay than it is of Schaffle, But neither has really shown that much in terms of the next level of marketability.

00:31:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they like I think it's important too, like who's the most popular player of a country, Like, they aren't ever going to be America's most popular player.

00:31:58
Speaker 2: They aren't really going to be super close. You don't see a scenario where they ever could be or I don't.

00:32:05
Speaker 3: Like I could not fatho them overtaking Justin Thomas or Colin Morrikawa from these eight this similar age bucket in popularity. So I think that's the big thing. But like I think the two of them together though, is a big deal. Like I would say, just a you know, hypothetical, say one big guy goes one of the Tier one Tier one is Rory Hideki, John Rahm, Justin Thomas and Morikawa. Tiger's obviously in that, but you know, really Tiger and Rory are almost in their own tier. But you know, for the matters, Tigers is not playing golf, so you know he's not gonna go play a lip schedule.

00:32:48
Speaker 2: He's like, he's like the captain of the PGA Tour side at this point.

00:32:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, So if one of those guys goes plus Xander and Morico or Xander and can't let how would you feel?

00:33:03
Speaker 2: I would not feel good and you know, can't lay and shaffle. At the significance there is if they're not playing in regular PGA Tour events and instead are playing in regular live events, then the competitive weight of the PGA Tour looks significantly lighter. And as he said at the beginning. That's one of the main things the PGA Tour has going for it right now is that competitively, it is clearly superior. It is where you go if you want good golf competition outside of the majors, and if can't lay and shaffle go all of a sudden that that's really a lot weaker because these guys are so so good at golf, and so you know, if they're on a different tour, then it just feels a lot less. Like the PGA Tour has the advantage that it has right now.

00:33:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, those two guys, like I, you know, they're verging at this point on three or four. Probably this will probably be about the fourth consecutive year that they both have been like just at week in, week out top ten players in the world, and like, the consistency to stay at that echelon of golf is very difficult. Their personalities aren't great some of them. You know, you might want Xander win more, you might want Patrick Cantlely to do more in majors, but the week the week to week consistency to be top ten player in the world for three four plus years where you don't really leave that top ten is pretty extraordinary given the depth of golf in this this current period.

00:34:39
Speaker 2: All right, so you have Jordan Speed in Tier two. Now you just read off the Tier one players and you know clearly all of those players belong in Tier one. We can get to them in a second. But explain yourself, is this is this just you doubling down on your shotguns? Start take that Jordan Speith is just another guy? Is is this just that kind of extension of that another guy. I'm not saying that he's like Kelly Kraft. He's won two events, two small events in the last five years. I would say too, mid tier events. I'm not going to litigate that I agree with I agree with that assessment. I think on in PGA Tour events, regular PGA Tour events in the past five years, if you just say twenty seventeen, we're going to disregard everything before that, it's twenty eighteen forward for the past five years in regular PGA Tour events. I think one of the best comps for where Jordan Speith has been is Billy Horschel. He's won a couple of times, He's had kind of similar strokes, gained total performances. He's been in a similar place in the FedEx Cup. If anything, Billy Horschell has been slightly more consistent, so I'm not going to dispute that. But in majors, Jordan Speith has still been racking up top threes, runner ups, top tens, you know, whereas Billy Horschel's nowhere near that.

00:36:04
Speaker 3: He's only had one real shot to win a major, and that was at Saint George's.

00:36:09
Speaker 2: Okay, but I mean those results in major still means something. He is a relevant player on Sunday in those tournaments.

00:36:16
Speaker 3: The best case for Jeorge's Feith being Tier one is that I've been told by a network, a person that's very intimate with network ratings, like might work at a network, told me there are two players outside of Tiger who make a difference in week to week ratings if they're in the hunt. It is it is Rory and Jordan Spieth. Those are the two players that will make a noticeable impact on the tournament's ratings if they are in the mix on the weekend.

00:36:50
Speaker 1: So that's the biggest thing.

00:36:53
Speaker 3: He might be the most popular non Tiger Woods American player.

00:36:57
Speaker 2: I think he definitely is. He definitely is the guy who on three majors before he was twenty.

00:37:02
Speaker 3: Five, the three majors that none of the young kids have even seen.

00:37:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I think that's that that wasn't that long ago. It wasn't that long ago that Jordan's Beith was the best player in the world. I think that that.

00:37:16
Speaker 1: Ye old fan doesn't even know, doesn't even know what he's done. They think he's just talking about ten year old fan. Now, that's that's the relevant reference point for who's big. All right, Well here the thing is, like, we even have Ricky in here. We could have put him.

00:37:32
Speaker 2: Where's Ricky? Oh my gosh, that is amazing that you didn't include Ricky. No, I'm I'm not gonna I'm not gonna go to back.

00:37:39
Speaker 1: I think Ricky would be Tier three.

00:37:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's kind of in the in a similar boat as like Justin Rose. You know, Justin Rose has won a major and has had I'm not comparing the careers or the resumes, but obviously Ricky is is recognizable in a way that a lot of players aren't. So what you just said about Jordan Spieth is my main argument for inclusion in Tier one. Just the fact that he is the most exciting player in the world when he's playing well, when he is absolutely on fire. There's nobody, you know, aside from Tiger Woods, who's not currently playing golf right now. Really, there's nobody who's more exciting to watch than Jordan Speith. And so losing that potential, I'm not saying that losing his week to week performance for the past five years, which has been you know exactly what you have been saying. I'm not saying that that's the significant part here. The significant thing in losing Jordan Speed would be the potential that he would show up at a Genesis Invitational and just be a fireball for the entire week and have it be the most fun, non major event of the year to watch. And that is Jordan Speed's capacity.

00:38:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't disagree. I think, like so, if you want to put Speeth in the top tier, we can do that.

00:38:55
Speaker 2: That's fine. Yeah, we we can disagree about that. I actually you can a general Speed take. I don't disagree as severely with it as a lot of people do. I would mostly defend you on that one, but in this particular case, I think he slips into tier one. Now tier one if you look at those players. All of these players have been in better form recently than Jordan Spief Hideki, you know, maybe maybe not. He won the Masters recently, that's the main thing. But Hideki obviously is incredibly important in the sense that you know, he is a national icon in his home country, and so is that the primary reason that Hideki's there.

00:39:35
Speaker 1: It's a golf crazed home country that you I think it would transform lives business if if Hideki is became a live player and they could center a team around them with their franchise, their franchise system where they want to sell these franchises. That's where Hideki becomes super valuable because of the ability to sell Hideki's franchise to a Japanese company that would pay very top dollar for it. I think when you go down this list, there are players that have said very little, especially if you include speed, there are players that have said very little about it. There are players that have been very outspoken about it. And you've got Rory and Justin Thomas in the outspoken category. You've got Hideki who's pledged his support for the PGA Tour but has kind of seemingly been a rumor. And then you've got John Rahm who's kind of like been on both sides of the fence, and he's.

00:40:45
Speaker 2: The man in the middle right now, John Rahm, I want to talk about him a little more. One thing we should mention is that Hideki. You know, if everything that we heard behind the scenes was true, almost went earlier this year, and that was a major fork in the road moment, and he chose not to. And that was a big, big deal for this balance of power between the PGA Tour and Live But there was definitely a moment a few months ago when word was a Decki's gone. But John Rahm is so interesting, isn't he Because he has said I pledge my fealty to the PGA Tour. That's literally what he said at the Genesis this past year when it all blew.

00:41:27
Speaker 3: Up, and at the US Open or wherever it was, he talked about how is that competition fifty four holes? He went on that kind of rant, which was a very you know, PGA tour take.

00:41:39
Speaker 2: So he has been loyal in rhetoric and in action to the PGA Tour, and I believe him. I don't think that John Rahm is full of it in the way that I think that some other guys are full of it. At the same time, he has been one of the players who has said, let's not make this bidder, let's not make this personal. I still want my European friends on the Ryder Cup team with me and uh and has really positioned himself that way, kind of as a mediator between the two sides. And so my question is, what do you think John Rahm wants, Like, what does he want? Does he want the PGA Tour to have to like make a deal with Live?

00:42:21
Speaker 3: I don't know, that's a good question. I like I think a lot about if the tour had taken a little bit different path of of fighting, if it hadn't been ban centric off the bat, where we be now. Think part of me wants to believe that they might be in a better place without these bands and and really like stooping to Live's level, you know, in a way they they handle themselves where they they created this like very charged situation. You know, LIV was going to attempt to do this, you know, and by by doing band and really getting in the mud with Live, they have put themselves in a position where they you know, they've drawn a hard line and it, and it creates sides. And that's the dangerous thing, right is like it's it's it's become a you're either with us or you're with them situation, which is like, you know, this is not a black and white situation, right. I think Rom sympathizes with players like Eugenio Chichara. Yes, that's a young Spanish player who Rom clearly knows well, and like, what what do you do when you're twenty one and you're offered you know, eight million dollars or whatever you got?

00:43:44
Speaker 1: What do you do?

00:43:45
Speaker 2: I think Rom wants to have a relationship with him, wants to be a mentor to him, and I think that maybe Rom is objecting to this idea that he that he shouldn't do that or that he can't do that now that there are these two leagues. But going back to the question for me, I mean I sympathize with the people who made that decision, specifically J Monahan at that moment, because it was such a hard decision to make in my opinion, because if you don't ban players, if you kind of make it easy for the guys who are live curious to just go over try it and maybe drop in on PGA Tour events every once in a while. How many more players would have already done that. Would Colin Marikawa have done it, Would John Rahm have done it?

00:44:30
Speaker 1: I don't know.

00:44:31
Speaker 3: I think it's a really hard decision and things would have played out far differently in either one. I guess the question centers around the confidence and what you have. You know, if you've got real confidence in what you have, like if you say we're not banning you, but you need to play your fifteen your minimum events to be a member, then then all of a sudden, players might be pushing back on live and saying, hey, I can't sign a contract to play twelve events because it's important for me to be a PGA Tour member, And then all of a sudden, you're actually like throwing wrenches in their system.

00:45:13
Speaker 2: I think that that's an interesting option that's not discussed enough when we bring up this topic. Is the PGA Tour saying yeah, you can play some of these events according to the rules that we've set up before. We're not going to do the band thing, but you play fifteen PGA Tour events, we're good, And then what would happen? I wonder, Yeah, That is an interesting hypothetical to think about. Who would have left and committed fully to Live. I don't really know, because none of these guys want to play thirty events unless they're Patrick Reid, you know.

00:45:48
Speaker 1: And if you don't play fifteen events, you can't play the players. You can't play the fed.

00:45:53
Speaker 3: X Cup playoffs, which a lot of these guys would want to play, you know.

00:45:57
Speaker 1: That's the thing. They could have done. Something they could have done, small little tweaks.

00:46:02
Speaker 3: It's almost like the tactical undercover missions versus going full out war.

00:46:11
Speaker 2: All right, why don't we get back to Tier one real quick and kind of close this out by talking about potential players who could.

00:46:18
Speaker 1: Go jt never going right too.

00:46:21
Speaker 2: He's too he's too loyal to Rory and especially to Tiger Woods, and Rory and Tiger are are pretty locked in on their new vision for how the PGA Tour is going to be. Morikawa is a possibility. I mean, he has said some things about his feelings about Live that have given me pause in the past, and so it seems like he could be a major domino that could realistically fall.

00:46:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with your assessment. He's one of the guys where you haven't you know, anybody that hasn't been like extremely outspoken about the subject matter. I would I would put into the bucket of like it is weighing their options. I think the was it the New Yorker piece that talked about how every player has an offer and has considered it like effectively, like the lines of like everybody has an offer, everybody's no.

00:47:25
Speaker 2: There was like a little saying that that Zach Helfan cited about, you know, there are three types of players on the PGA Tour, you know, And yeah, I'm not sure if that was accurate, but that is what people sort of how how people have sort of assessed the situation. Even the players who have, you know, come out in support of the PGA Tour, have an offer on the table and are looking at that money and kind of, you know, I wonder what would be like to to take that money.

00:47:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the thing one of the big things with Moricau is the agency he's He's in the in the Steinberg Agency XL, which is Tiger's agency same as JT and Morcow is in there too, So that's like one I would say, one big detractor. Like I think.

00:48:13
Speaker 3: That that's like an underrated aspect of this whole thing is agencies and the agents who obviously get to cut all that revenue.

00:48:23
Speaker 2: For some agents who have leapt really really quickly at that cut and we know who you are, guys. But Marikawa is somebody who's going to be I think, even if he might be considering a jump, even if he might be keeping his options open, he's going to be somebody who's like hooked in with whatever. This you know, new set of Rory Tiger Ventures is going to be probably right, Yeah, you know that the TV show next year that's going to be on the launch monitor. I don't know how to describe it exactly, but the thing that Rory McElroy and Tiger Woods are working on as a TV product, it would be shocking if Colin wore Kawa weren't a big part of that.

00:49:02
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, that's the thing.

00:49:04
Speaker 3: I think that one of the evolutions of the tour that has been smart is this like the Rory Tiger brainchild with us tomorrow. It is going to give players the opportunity to make more money and it's in a different way, but you know, a door that is only open to you via the tour. You know, I can't imagine any players will be teeing it up in.

00:49:28
Speaker 2: That Brett Bryson is not going to be involved, I would assume, even if he might really really want to be.

00:49:35
Speaker 3: And then I mean, Speith has not said anything about Live outside of the one tweet, which was, you know, ironically right after he was rumored. It was tweeted out right before a major championship. In a way it felt like, don't you dare ask me about this next week before a major.

00:49:54
Speaker 1: But that's all we've heard from him. Really.

00:49:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, there there's a set of players, elite players who are currently on the PGA Tour where if the power kind of shifts toward Live and enough guys go, you know, they're gone, that that's the path to success for Live now for me, and this is you know, maybe a question we can wrap up on because it's it's a big picture question for me. Over the course of the past few months, Live's path to domination in the golf world has gotten neirwork as far as I can see, because a few key things have not happened for Live yet. The TV deal is still up in the air, and the owgr factor seems not to really be coming together, and Headecki didn't leave, a few other players who seem like they might leave didn't. And so, you know, a few months ago I was leaning towards like, you know, I think that this is this is going to be really successful in that the golf world is never going to be the same. Now. I could almost be convinced that within a few years Live is just going to kind of go away and the Saudis will get interested in funding something else.

00:51:14
Speaker 3: I think the pathway into the majors is the most important thing. I don't think the world rankings are very important.

00:51:20
Speaker 2: The only reason I bring up the world rankings is that they're still important insofar as they are a path into certain majors.

00:51:29
Speaker 1: The qualification it shouldn't be.

00:51:31
Speaker 3: It's no longer about OWGR in my opinion, it is about qualification for major championships.

00:51:39
Speaker 2: Yes, And I.

00:51:40
Speaker 3: Think that we are going to see before we see the OWGR bend because anybody, without anybody should be able to look at the OWGR situation and admit that there is considerable bias in the OWGR board.

00:51:55
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I mean because they're affiliated with certain tours.

00:51:58
Speaker 3: I think it's more likely that there will be exemption categories into majors for live players sooner than there will be an OWGR change with liv being accredited.

00:52:11
Speaker 2: Yes. Well, I mean, even if the OWGR board decided that they were open to giving live points, it wouldn't happen for a while under the current rules, and so.

00:52:21
Speaker 1: Well, and they would all the players would tank and then their points would be irrelevant.

00:52:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so the yeah, the big the decision is going to be made by Augusta National, It's going to be made by the USGA, It's going to be made by the RNA. And you know, the PGA Championship currently doesn't use OWGR. I don't think they use PGA Tour qualifications. So that's its own sort of interesting little side note in this discussion, here's.

00:52:48
Speaker 1: A question, is the OWGR dead already?

00:52:53
Speaker 2: I think that's a total exaggeration.

00:52:55
Speaker 3: No, But like, realistically, what chance does Dustin Johnson have of being a top ten player in the world rankings?

00:53:01
Speaker 1: Ever?

00:53:01
Speaker 2: Again, well, I don't think anybody's all that concerned about that, because Dustin Johnson is in the you know, fourth act, fifth act of his career right now. I think that that question is going to be a huge one for Cameron Smith, who by all rights should be a top three player in the world. And if a couple of years go by here and you know, say he does still does well in the majors, but he doesn't have enough Owjr. Points to stay in the top ten or the top twenty, then it starts to get a little bit ridiculous. But I think this is something where, you know, a couple of years down the line, then we'll be able to see what the what the effects will be. But yeah, I mean, you're right that if the majors decide to make a move to bring live into the fold, there's really nothing that the OWGR can do, and no more leverage that the OWGR has over the golf world. So we'll see, all right. So we kind of wandered in to some interesting territory there, but I hope it was informative about what to expect, what to look for out of the next few months when it comes to live golf. We're not going to talk about live every week, especially during the off season, but we thought we'd do a little bit upfront so that you can kind of be prepared for what's likely to be news at least on occasion as we approach the finish line of twenty twenty two. All right, thanks Andy. This episode of the Frida Egg podcast was edited by Meg Atkins to support the Friday Egg. A great thing that you can do is go to the Frida Egg dot com and subscribe to our newsletter. That's where Andy's piece about the potential defections to Live first appeared. Comes to your inbox three times a week, and we think it's a really good product, but of course we're biased, and so you have to determine that for yourself, and the best way to do that is to subscribe. So Friday dot com, subscribe to our newsletter. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you again next week.