577: 10 Trends for Week 10

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Speaker 1: This is the Label podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa, j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandle and at number fire dot com. And this is episode five hundred and seventy seven of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I know some of you are basketball fans, so I want to let you know that now that the twenty twenty one NBA season is underway, so is fandals Free over Under contest. It's simple. Just head over to fandle dot com, slash over under and choose either over or under for each listed prop. You can make free picks for a chance to want to share five thousand dollars. All you have to do is make your picks on FanDuel before every NBA on TNT broadcast for your shot at a big payday. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. This is a ten trend show. Let's get to the trends. David Montgomery came back from injury on Monday night against the Steelers. In that game, He saw seventy six and a half percent of Chicago's running back rushes to go along with a six point nine percent target share. Those numbers were below what he'd been seeing before his injury, But I think what was most surprising about Montgomery's performance was this. He had an eighty five and a half percent snap share that was the highest of any running back in Week nine. So even though Khalil Herbert did see four rushes, and even though Montgomery's rush share was a little bit lower than normal, the snap share is something that makes me believe that Montgomery is a by candidate right now. After having a down matchup against a good defense, I thought they'd use Herbert more and I was wrong. In that same Monday night game, Pat Fryarmouth dominated. He was the tight end one on the week after scoring twice, and he's now average a target share per game of twenty point one percent over his last three games. In each of those games, he's finished as a top ten weekly tight end. Over the last two weeks, Friarmuth is tied for second in the NFL and targets within the opponent's ten yard line. I know Eric Ebron's been out, but I don't know how you don't just keep feeding Friarmouth. At this point, he's a tight end one in Fantasy football moving forward, which I know sounds really aggressive, but there just really aren't that many good options out there. And remember all of this has coincided with Juju Smith Schuster's season ending injury. Over the last three weeks, Jalen Hurts has had a deep ball rate per game average of thirty seven point four percent. That means that over thirty seven percent of his passes have traveled fifteen or more air yards. Let me give you some context to what that means. So far this season, the highest deep ball rate in the league is twenty four percent. I'm going to talk about that more later. Jalen Hurts is that thirty seven point four percent over his last three games. Hurts has struggled this year as a passer, but for what it's worth, he's been above average at completing passes on those types of throws. Let's go back to that Monday night game and talk about Justin fields. Field's finished the day with eighteen Fantasy points. He was a tenth ranked quarterback on the week. He's looked more and more comfortable throwing the ball over the last couple of weeks, and more importantly for fantasy, he's been running the ball more too. He's averaged almost nine rush attemps per game over his last three He's averaged sixty two rushing yards per game in his four starts. Prior to that, he was averaging fewer than four rush attempts per game, and he was averaging seventeen rushing yards per game. This is the justin Fields I expected before the season started. He should be added off the waiver wire. They just have a buye this week. So I didn't mention him on the fifteen Transaction Show because I generally talk about streamers there, but Fields has some upside from here on out. Jerry Judy has now been back from injury for two games. In those two games, he's averaged a target share per contest of twenty four percent, and that's being anchored a bit by last week's thirty two percent target share performance. Cortland Sutton has suffered. I briefly talked about this on the fifteen Transaction Show yesterday, but Sutton has just six targets over his last two games. That's three per game. He was averaging over nine targets per game without Jerry Judy. Now, I know there's a small sample size here. I'm not expecting three targets per game from Sutton from here on out, and that's part of the reason you can't really sell him right now. But I'm a little bit nervous about his weekend week out viability with Jerry Judy active. Aaron Jones has averaged a running back rush share per game of a little over fifty four percent over his last six. Across his first three, that number was closer to sixty one percent, and that includes a Week one game where the Packers got destroyed by the Saints and they didn't use Jones that much at all. In weeks two and three, Jones had closer to a seventy four percent running back rush share. That's twenty percentage points higher than what he's seen since that point. This coincides with the team utilizing aj dillonmore. Since Week three, Dylan has averaged a running back rush are of forty one and a half percent per game, and that coincides with the pack throwing him on the field more. Weeks one through three saw Dylan never hit a thirty percent snapchare He's hit that in all but one game since. So how is this impacting Aaron Jones? Well? After Week three he was the RB two in Fantasy football, partially because of one monster game, but remember he also had a weird performance in Week one when the Packers got destroyed. Since Week three, he's averaging a little over fourteen PPR points per game, and among players with three or more games played over this stretch, he's been the RB nineteen in points per game. We know that Jones has plenty of upside, and maybe the Packers utilize him more November and December. It's hard to call him anything but a hold or a cell right now, though. Trend seven is that Hunter Henry has now seen half of the Patriots receiving touchdowns this year. That's the highest receiving touchdown share among all tight ends. The only player who's seen a higher percentage of his team's receiving touchdowns this season across the entire league is dk Metcalf. When looking at a yards to touchdowns conversion, Henry's outperformed touchdown expectation by two point six touchdowns, but he's seeing decent work in the red zone, and when you look at expected point formulas. It looks like Henry's only outperforming touchdown expectation by about one touchdown, so it's not as dramatic. The bigger problem, I would say, is just the share of touchdowns that he's seeing. It's gonna be hard to maintain that type of usage. Darren Waller had his best game since Week one and week nine. His target share was the highest it's been since that point in time, although it wasn't some outlier number. It was twenty three point nine percent. But that's a good sign that he saw a slight bump with Henry Ruggs out of the picture, and he produced too. He saw double digit targets for the first time since Week one, and he caught seven of his eleven targets for ninety two yards. That's the first time that Waller's exceeded sixty five receiving yards since week one. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, because he's had a disappointing year after starting off so strong. Now. I talked about j Aalen Hurts rate of throwing at fifteen or more air yards a little bit earlier, but here's one for you. I already said that the league leader has a twenty four percent deep all rate. Do you know who that player is. It's not Jalen Hurts, it's not Lamar Jackson, it's not Tom Brady, and it's not Russell Wilson. It's Baker Mayfield. I thought that was pretty interesting, and it's something that favors a player like Donovan Peoples Jones having some usability at times if you're in a pinch. The last trend this week has through with the Cincinnati Bengals pass catchers. They've had their trio of wide receivers together for all but two games this year. Those came in weeks three and four. Tyler Boyd on the season, has a nineteen and a half percent target share that's been boosted a lot, though by his target chairs. When T Higgins wasn't active in weeks three and four, he had target shares of thirty three point three percent and thirty four point four percent, So without T. Higgins he's had a target share per game of about thirty four percent. With T Higgins that number drops to about seventeen percent. Boyd has ranked higher than wide receiver thirty and weekly PPR scoring just twice this year. He's clearly been the odd Man out with Jamar Chas in Town. That's going to do for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You no forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, We got the sleeper show tomorrow. I'll talk to you then