AvTalk Episode 341: Dry Clean Only

AVT 341 Transcript
EPISODE 341
[EPISODE]
[0:00:07] IP: Hello, and welcome to episode 341 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always
with –,
[0:00:16] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. How's it going, Ian?
[0:00:19] IP: It's going, Jason. It is going. We've made it to the middle of the week. It is podcast
time, and boy, do we have a lot to talk about. Even though it feels like it's been – Well, I take
that back. I understand why, because we had – the kids had Monday off, so it's a strange week
anytime the schedule gets thrown off. But it also feels like not much has happened, and yet,
there's a whole bunch that has happened.
[0:00:45] JR: That's my favorite week, when nothing huge happens, but just a bunch of little,
mostly harmless, innocuous things. Yeah. You know, that happened. All right. Okay. That’s fine.
That’s fine.
[0:00:56] IP: Well, let's start the show with some surprising news. Late last week, Russian
President Vladimir Putin said, “Hey, yeah. That was us. Sorry about that.” He was talking about
the, not shoot down, but severe damage to the Azerbaijan Airlines E190 that eventually crashed
in Aktau, Kazakhstan. This was the first time that Putin had acknowledged what was widely
assumed to have been the case. He said, “We didn't shoot it down. We just shot at it, and the
missiles happened to explode near the airplane. Sorry about that.” Then the official English
translation says that they're studying everything that has happened to provide an objective
assessment and that, “It will probably take some more time to finally put an end to this.”
[0:01:56] JR: And into what exactly? The compensation to the families of those who were lost,
or the end of accidentally shooting down civilian airliners over conflict zones that they're
involved in? Because both would be great.
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[0:02:11] IP: That one I can't answer. But I can say, it's rather surprising that this came out, but
the issue had become a very, very strong source of conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan.
[0:02:26] JR: Yeah, there are precious few countries out there where Russia has to save face
like this and make everyone whole and actually admit that they did a thing, because apparently,
the international relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, they're strained and this is not
helping, and apologizing and taking responsibility for this is part of Russia's way to make
relations better. Very unexpected, because, of course, Russia has never taken responsibility for
the shoot down of the Malaysian 777, and they never will. In this case, they swear they will do
everything to make everyone whole, to fix it, to make sure it doesn't happen again.
I think the closing quote is, “I would like to thank you for keeping the situation under your
personal control.” That was actually from the government of Azerbaijan to Putin. A reminder of
saying, “Hey, we haven't forgotten about this. You got to make everyone whole here.” It is just
very few countries this will happen to, but hopefully, the last time we ever have to say this.
[0:03:30] IP: Hopefully.
[0:03:32] JR: I hope they will do everything, apparently, technically possible to prevent this from
happening again. They said they blame this on a technical malfunction, which could really mean
anything. Was it a technical malfunction of a human shooting down the wrong aircraft, when
they thought they were shooting a drone? Did the actual air defense system technically
malfunction? Still very, very few details here. I just hate that we're still talking about this. It
sucks.
[0:03:59] IP: Yeah. I mean, it's interesting that this happened late last week, and then this week,
IATA was hosting the World Safety and Operations Conference. A lot of the discussion about
safety came under the purview of things that are happening in or because of Russia, addressing
global navigation systems, interference, and things like that. But the one discussion that I
wanted to pull out was a statistic that IATA had pulled. They say 58% of accidents between 2019
and 2023 have not yet delivered a final report.
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[0:04:42] JR: That's a lot. Nearly half. There are some fairly high-profile ones that we've talked
about recently, like the China Eastern 320 Family aircraft that was almost certainly brought
down by one of the pilots. We're never going to see a report. We're never going to get to 100%
of course, but 58% is, wow, that's low.
[0:05:03] IP: Yeah. It was really an eye-opening statistic for me. The IATA argument and which
one I happen to wholeheartedly support here, is that timely accident investigation reporting is
extremely important. To be clear, under the ICAO Annex 13 from the Chicago Convention,
reports need to be issued within a year. If they're not on the anniversary of the crash each year
until the final report is issued, the investigative body in charge of the investigation is supposed
to issue an update. That, as Jason points out, has not happened for a lot of high-profile
accidents. That said, the quality of a lot of the preliminary reports and eventually, final reports
that are coming out have increased, and IATA recognizes this. I think we've talked about this in
multiple cases, especially where there is a lot of information to process in these preliminary
reports, and it's laid out in a clear and effective manner to advance safety in advance of the final
report coming out.
[0:06:16] JR: Well, even ones that we just talked about, the Azerbaijan shoot down, the
preliminary report for that –
[0:06:20] IP: Yeah, exactly.
[0:06:22] JR: - was huge. With CVR transcripts and all sorts of extremely detailed information
that almost makes the final report not necessary. You could have erased, or deleted preliminary
reports, slap final report, and it's fine. But, I guess, we never did get a final report for this one,
did we?
[0:06:40] IP: Not yet. I mean, we're still within –
[0:06:42] JR: Wrapped on there. Yeah.
[0:06:42] IP: Yeah.
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[0:06:43] JR: I wouldn't be surprised if we don't, because what would be the purpose?
[0:06:48] IP: Well, maybe they'll just delete preliminary and put final on it and call it a day.
[0:06:52] JR: Yeah. Due diligence. I guess there are also so many preliminary reports. The
NTSB doesn't just, at least not just the NTSB, but all investigatory bodies; they don't just
investigate the biggest incidents. They investigate tons of, tons of tiny little incidents. I guess,
just not all of them rise to having the personnel needed to issue a final report. Some things are
just, they're never going to get to it, because it’s just so much.
[0:07:21] IP: Yeah. I wonder how that work gets prioritized. Although I think we've seen a lot of
final reports that don't come from preliminary reports. We investigated this, and here's what
happened.
[0:07:33] JR: Right.
[0:07:34] IP: Let’s completely shift gears and talk about paint.
[0:07:38] JR: Huh? What kind of paint?
[0:07:41] IP: Well, unfortunately, paint. I'll lay it out, and we can talk about some things that may
be important, may not be important. But hey, this is a podcast about aviation, so we're going to
do it anyway. American Airlines is celebrating its 100th anniversary next year. In advance of that,
they have unveiled the centennial livery that they are going to paint on an aircraft. The particular
aircraft on which they are going to paint this livery is a Boeing 777-300ER, registered N735AT.
That particular aircraft will wear a livery that is reminiscent of the 1930s flagship livery. Silver
body, international orange sheet line, and the old American Eagle emblem.
[0:08:29] JR: This is the latest in a string of centennial special livery aircraft that we've seen
recently. We talked just a few weeks ago about Lufthansa 787-9 coming out, quite sure. Were
already rolled out of the paint factory, the paint factory. The facility where they make the
airplanes in Charleston.
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[0:08:47] IP: There we go.
[0:08:48] JR: Thank you. DABPU entered service in December, and there are a few other
centennial liveries, I think, from Delta, Qantas, SAS, a bunch. I think this one from American is
going to be the most divisive special livery. There's already a lot of reaction of, “I love it,” and
“Oh, my God. I hate it.” That being said, we have only seen the livery, because believe it or not,
this aircraft is still out there flying in a current party American flagtail livery, which itself has
haters and lovers. I guess, America’s just keeping up its theme of having a very divisive livery.
But it's painted gray. Even though we know they can –
[0:09:34] IP: No. No, no, no, no. No.
[0:09:36] JR: No?
[0:09:36] IP: It's not painted gray.
[0:09:37] JR: Okay. It's painted what?
[0:09:39] IP: It is painted in silver eagle, which is apparently a trademark color.
[0:09:46] JR: Oh, okay. Well, there's that. But we know that America had forever 777-200s in
actual bare metal –
[0:09:54] IP: Correct.
[0:09:55] JR: - which, I guess, they could do with this 777, but they're not. I guess I assume
there's some reason why they can't do that.
[0:10:03] IP: It's probably more work at this point. It's probably more work at this point.
[0:10:07] JR: That is more work, because you got to get all the paint off. But then, I get to put a
new paint coat on, you got to take all the old paint off. I don't know. I'm sure they have their
reasons. But I am reserving final judgment until we see this in person, until it's actually painted,
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until they, as our friend John Walton and Jeremy Dwyer Lindgren have pointed out, correct
some of the errors in the livery.
[0:10:27] IP: There are some design elements that need to be swapped before –
[0:10:31] JR: Yes.
[0:10:32] IP: - they can actually paint this aircraft. That is true.
[0:10:34] JR: I assume some of the assets in the rendering were accidentally mirrored when
they're not supposed to. But they haven't painted the aircraft yet, so there's still time to fix that. I
like it purely because Americans, damn it, they're putting effort into it. All too often, effort is not
put into things. Here, we have incontrovertible evidence of effort.
[0:11:01] IP: I love that you're hanging your hat on effort.
[0:11:05] JR: I mean –
[0:11:05] IP: Don't get me wrong. Don’t get me wrong, they did try. They are trying. To be clear,
I love the idea of this livery.
[0:11:14] JR: Yes.
[0:11:14] IP: I absolutely did.
[0:11:14] JR: I'm not sure it translates perfectly from the DC-3 that they took as inspiration to a
777-300ER, just because it's such a damn long airplane.
[0:11:23] IP: Yeah, exactly.
[0:11:25] JR: It probably would fit better on a 788, but that's not their flagship. That is the runt of
the fleet, as you love to remind us. You do not love that aircraft. The 777-300ER is the flagship,
literally painted on the side of the plane. Flagship.
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[0:11:40] IP: Yes. We wouldn't know otherwise.
[0:11:42] JR: No. There's no way to tell, except for the product and side, which is also called
flagship. But that's besides the point. I appreciate effort and a celebration of a centennial,
because all too often, airlines phoned it in and slapped a sticker on the nose of the aircraft and
say, “100 years. Yay.” I mean, I don't think that's actually happened for 100-year centennial, but
yeah, lots of anniversaries come and go with not much fanfare. This ain't one of them.
[0:12:09] IP: Yeah. I'm looking forward to seeing it in person in the next couple of weeks.
Absolutely. What I'm also looking forward to now is pitting American and United against each
other, because I know that United's also working on a special delivery for its 100th anniversary.
This is going to be fun.
[0:12:27] JR: Yeah. Did Delta put its 100th anniversary livery on a 350, or was it only the 321?
[0:12:34] IP: The 350 and the 321.
[0:12:35] JR: 350 and 321. Okay, so really, American’s are already behind by only putting on
their wide body. They got to put it on a narrow body, too.
[0:12:42] IP: Maybe we'll see that later on. I don’t know.
[0:12:45] JR: Maybe I’m like, do they still have CRJ200s or E-145s? Well, just smallest plane
these days, as closely matched to DC3 as possible.
[0:12:55] IP: Well, I mean, they already have the Astrojet livery on a 737 –
[0:13:00] JR: Oh. So, you're saying, slap a 100-year sticker on that and there's your centennial.
Okay. You know what? I don't hate it.
[0:13:09] IP: We'll put a link in the show notes to a photo of the rendering of this particular
livery, and we'll let you guys go at it in the comments. Jason, here's a fun story.
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[0:13:21] JR: Mm-hmm.
[0:13:23] IP: Not for Finnair. But it's interesting to explain how the industry works, or sometimes
doesn't. Finnair this week grounded eight of its A321s, because the seat covers had been
cleaned with water.
[0:13:40] JR: Huh. You never clean with water, but actually, you don't. Eight A321s is more than
half of its A321 fleet, by the way. They only have 15. That's a big deal, grounding more than half
of that fleet. Apparently, again, learning things from John Walton again today. Hi, John. You can't
do that, because seat fabric and seat covers are way more high-tech than just your couch or a
seat. They have very scientific flame-retardant requirements, all sorts of things that make sure
they can't light on fire. If somehow they do light on fire, they don't burn. Apparently, when you
clean them with water, you wash away whatever that coating, or special material, is in that seat.
You can't do that. I don't know how you clean them. Maybe you do dry clean them. I don't know.
[0:14:33] IP: Yeah. I mean, to be clear, we're not talking about someone taking a spray bottle
and a rag. This is when the seat covers all –
[0:14:40] JR: Did they power wash them?
[0:14:42] IP: This is when you remove them and fully clean them, as far as I understand. The
issue here is not even the fire-retardant properties, and the fireproofing properties of the seat
covers were for sure degraded. It's just that they're not – they don't have certification for the
cleaning process that they used, so they don't know. Out of an abundance of caution, they
grounded the aircraft for further inspection.
[0:15:10] JR: Yes. Well, apparently, today, Finnair canceled 4% of its flights, and 20% overall
were canceled, which is probably a lot higher than the norm for Finnair, which is probably 0 and
0%, or somewhere close to it. Lesson learned. There's a lot of technology that just goes into the
seat of an airplane that you would never, ever think about. But somebody at Finnair –
[0:15:34] IP: We could do an entire episode on how seats work.
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[0:15:38] JR: Yeah. Someone at Finnair they're thinking about it. Not by choice now, but
because there's going to be a really unhappy meeting about what happened.
[0:15:46] IP: If there hasn't been already.
[0:15:48] JR: It happens. Mistakes were made. You live and you learn. Sometimes you live, and
you accidentally wash a seat with water. Who knew?
[0:15:58] IP: Not the people that Finnair hired to clean the seats, apparently. In interesting news
that solves an actual problem that we've talked about before, Boeing has unveiled an electronic
parts authentication schema that it is introducing with Southwest Airlines and Aeroxchange as
the first partners in this. What this is is a completely digital, and we'll just use the shorthand
here, certificate that allows parts to be proven to be good to use and authentic and to know that
these come through the supply chain from qualified and respected sources. Unlike a lot of the
old paper certificates, where we've talked about in the past, I think this was episode 322, where
we talked about parts that were for CFM56 engines that had been installed in aircraft using
faked documents.
This whole system, and we'll put a link to the release from Boeing in it, because it gets into a lot
of the technical aspects of it, but it ensures that there's an electronic certificate for these parts.
This is rolling out in one Boeing repair facility starting at the one in Davey, Florida, and they
were the first to use it using the Aeroxchange platform. Southwest received a battery that had
been reconditioned using this platform, but it will roll out to all nine of Boeing's repair facilities
soon. I think that's a big step in the right direction.
[0:17:49] JR: Yeah. This is such a small, stupid thing that has such big implications for an
industry, because how is it that we are in the fourth quarter of 2024? Is it fourth quarter? Yeah,
fourth of –
[0:18:04] IP: It’s only 2025.
[0:18:05] JR: 2025. See, I don't even know what year it is. Okay, same statement, but for 2024,
statement still holds true that we're in whatever year it is today, and aircraft parts, the only way
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you can prove they are authentic is with a piece of paper that you just trust is real. That is crazy,
because nonsense you get from Amazon, a battery that is supposedly manufactured by Anker,
comes with a little thing with a QR code that you scan to make sure it's authentic, because
fakes are so prevalent on Amazon that manufacturers actually include things that you can scan
to make sure it's actually authentic. To think that that technology has come years before aircraft
manufacturers and flight safety critical parts, and it came to little trinkets on Amazon first, is
crazy. But good on Boeing, good on its partners, good on Southwest for participating in this.
Hopefully, this goes very quickly from a thing that Boeing did with an airline to a thing all
suppliers do with all airlines very quickly.
[0:19:07] IP: Yeah.
[0:19:08] JR: They also mentioned blockchain once.
[0:19:11] IP: They didn't even mention blockchain as in, like a – they said, it's blockchain-ready.
[0:19:15] JR: That's how far we’ve come.
[0:19:17] IP: If you want to use blockchain, you can.
[0:19:18] JR: That's how you know this is a real thing. Blockchain doesn't appear until the one,
two, three, four, five, six, seventh paragraph. It's only in passing mention. That’s how you know
this is real.
[0:19:30] IP: I 100% read this release the first time through, waiting for the blockchain mention.
[0:19:36] JR: And it was there, but only, you know.
[0:19:37] IP: It was there. But it was down –
[0:19:38] JR: It's ready. It's ready.
[0:19:39] IP: - down pretty far.
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[0:19:40] JR: Good on Boeing.
[0:19:42] IP: Let's stick with Boeing and talk about what they announced this week in one of the
largest gatherings of business aviation for the year. Boeing announced that it is unveiling a
turnkey solution for the acquisition and conversion of used 747s for the V-VIP use.
[0:20:02] JR: Oh.
[0:20:03] IP: Jason, now's your chance.
[0:20:05] JR: There is an absurdly precious few of people and aircraft that this could possibly
apply to. Is Petchmo Air one of them?
[0:20:15] IP: No. I still have too many A350s. I need to figure out what to do with them.
[0:20:20] JR: Okay. I don't know the deal here.
[0:20:22] IP: Well, it appeals to folks whose debit card is attached to a sovereign wealth fund. I
mean, that’s who it goes to.
[0:20:28] JR: You don't use a debit card. If you're buying a 747-8 BBJ, you use a credit card
and get those four billion points. You don't use a debit card, Ian. Come on.
[0:20:38] IP: The point here, I guess, is that Boeing is trying to figure out what to do with 747-8s
that are being let go by airlines and finding a way to acquire them and then repurpose them for
V-VIP use.
[0:20:58] JR: Yeah. How has that gone for the few V-VIP 748s that have already been
delivered? Not great.
[0:21:05] IP: But now it's turnkey. Now it's turnkey. They'll do it for you. They will buy them. They
will convert them. They will do it for you. I can't imagine that this was a real barrier to
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implementation for folks that can afford this. Like, oh, I didn't want to have to go out and buy it
myself.
[0:21:26] JR: I mean, I like any news that's positive for the 747, but this is just like, nobody
wants them. I don't know. If you benefit from this new 747-8 V-VIP thing Boeing is doing, let us
know at podcast@fr24.com.
[0:21:44] IP: Thanks for listening. Last bit of Boeing news is something that we talked about, I
think a few weeks ago that it was preliminary. Now, it seems things are official. The EU has
given Boeing the green light for its re-acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems.
[0:22:00] JR: Oh, that's good and quickly.
[0:22:01] IP: EU was satisfied with the divestment of the Airbus work packages, which was
going to happen all along. It's interesting to me that we had to go through this whole thing. EU
says, “Okay, if you're getting rid of all of the Airbus work packages, which was what our concern
was, go ahead and do the thing.” It also sounds like, in this latest announcement, Airbus won't
have to pick up the third hand, or third-party work packages that aren't really related to Airbus
aircraft specifically, but they said they would take in order to have this deal go through. It sounds
like they found buyers for those. I think one of them is a part supplier in Malaysia. I don't see the
other one in my notes. We'll just say it does something else.
[0:22:54] JR: Sure.
[0:22:54] IP: Come back to that later.
[0:22:56] JR: Sure, sure, sure.
[0:22:56] IP: But good news for Boeing, good news for Spirit, and good news for Airbus there.
[0:23:01] JR: Yeah. Keeping in the good news section of this podcast, I think it's actually all –
[0:23:06] IP: I love it.
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[0:23:07] JR: It might be all good news. This is rare.
[0:23:09] IP: Good-ish news. Good or –
[0:23:12] JR: Neutral.
[0:23:12] IP: - not actually bad.
[0:23:14] JR: Yeah. Airbus, apparently, has inaugurated its second final assembly line in Mobile,
Alabama. I didn't get a press release about this, but I assume this is a thing that actually
happened, because it's in the show notes. Ian, tell us more.
[0:23:29] IP: Jason's entire reality is based on the rundown that we do every week for this
podcast.
[0:23:34] JR: Actually, yeah.
[0:23:36] IP: Yeah. Airbus has inaugurated its second final assembly line down in Alabama. The
first one opened in 2015, where we did get a whole bunch of press releases. This is in support
of Airbus's push to produce 75 A320neo family aircraft per month by 2027. The target rate right
now is 50 per month. As of a few weeks ago, it was a little bit lower than that last month. But the
target rate is 50. They want to go up to 75 by mid-2027. That's not just in Alabama. That's
across all of Airbus' A320 family manufacturing facilities.
[0:24:18] JR: If that was only Alabama, very impressive.
[0:24:22] IP: That's Hamburg, Toulouse, Mobile, and Tianjin in China. That's across all of them.
But 75 aircraft per month is still an incredible number.
[0:24:33] JR: It is. Remind me what Boeing is shooting for?
[0:24:36] IP: Boeing is at 38, shooting for 42 in their next rate increase. I believe they were
shooting for something in the '60s eventually. But who knows at this point what their goal is?
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[0:24:50] JR: What I’m getting at is it’s pretty crazy that Airbus needs its final assembly lines, I
guess, in Hamburg, Toulouse, Mobile, and Tianjin, while Boeing is going to try to do that,
basically, all in Renton with some in Everett, with only two facilities. That's a big difference. Way,
way different approach to getting to the same very crazy high production rate.
[0:25:18] IP: That's an interesting point that you make, that the floor space and the facilities that
it takes to produce those aircraft.
[0:25:25] JR: I still want to get to the Tianjin facility over in China one day. I was so close one
time, but it turns out, if you don't speak Chinese, getting on the Chinese-only tours, really
difficult.
[0:25:34] IP: That sounds like it would be difficult.
[0:25:37] JR: It was.
[0:25:38] IP: That's a perfect segue into what we'll talk about next, which is the fact that the US
Department of Transportation issued an order with very little public comment period. Two days
they gave for Chinese airlines, or anybody who wants to publicly comment on this proposed
order. That Chinese airlines would soon no longer be allowed to fly over Russia in between the
United States and China. They've been allowed, or US and other carriers flying between, well,
not other carriers, because just US carriers, specifically China, have not been able to fly over
Russia since 2022, since Russia implemented a reciprocal ban on airspace.
Chinese carriers have been allowed to pass over Russian airspace, making the flight shorter
and ostensibly giving them some sort of competitive advantage. Though I think when we talked
about this initially, Jason and I both made the point that it's very unlikely that someone is
choosing to fly a Chinese carrier specifically based on the fact that the flight might be a little
shorter.
[0:26:51] JR: Yeah. But interestingly, on the other end of the spectrum, why wouldn't the US be
demanding flights on the other side of the planet be doing the same thing? So, your flights from,
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let's say, Air India, Etihad, Everett's, they fly over Russian airspace to the US. Why does this
only apply to Chinese airlines and not others?
[0:27:11] IP: That's a great question. I think that comes down to the 1980 US-China Civil Air
Transport Agreement. Particularly, Article 2, Section Four. That particular agreement governs
how US and Chinese air carriers can operate between the two countries. There's a clause in
there, because of the Soviet Union, that says they can only operate services over third countries
on routes that are available to both parties.
[0:27:46] JR: Hmm. Interesting. I did not expect you to have an actual answer to that
hypothetical question, which is fairly not hypothetical.
[0:27:53] IP: No. But now the question becomes, so taking Jason's question at face value,
because that's a really interesting question, and I'm glad I had that answer. Part two of that
question is, why now?
[0:28:03] JR: Why not? Does anything the US government does right now make any sense?
No. That's the answer.
[0:28:10] IP: All right, that's fair enough. But I think the question then still stands, if they have
statutory legs to stand on here, which the DOT seems to with the Chinese airlines, why would
they not then say, “Okay, we're also looking to level the playing field. Why not look at Air India?
Why not look at Etihad? Why not look at Emirates? Why not look at Qatar?” Maybe that's next in
line. I'm not sure. But it would be interesting to see the discussion, and they're like, “Well, we
need to do this now for some reason. Then, what about the others?”
[0:28:42] JR: Yeah. I'm more surprised at this point, given everything that the current
administration would be more willing to force Chinese airlines to not overfly Russian airspace
than to lift the ban on US airlines flying over Russian airspace at this point. Nothing makes
sense. It is what it is. Very weird about the comment period being so short, though, because I
probably wouldn't personally leave a comment. But I'm sure lots of airlines would like to
comment.
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[0:29:11] IP: Well, the seven Chinese airlines had quite a bit to say about the fact that this
would affect them, and they only had two days to respond. They petitioned for more time. I'm
not sure how much more time they got, if any, at this point. It'll be interesting to see if this gets
put into place, what effect that has on the number of flights that are currently operating between
China and the US, and by which airlines? This doesn't seem like it goes well for either the
Chinese airlines or the US airlines if this actually gets implemented.
[0:29:45] JR: Nope.
[0:29:47] IP: In good, bad news, I guess, Spirit Airlines has received approval for its debtor-in-
possession financing. They get a bunch of money right away to keep moving. They also get to
do all of the things that they would like to do, as far as rejecting leases and things like that.
Interestingly, they've also been allowed to cancel the 52 A320neo family orders that they have
and transfer them to AerCap as part of this restructuring.
[0:30:25] JR: All right. Still not sure what the grand plan is here for Spirit, but they are certainly
trading in their future for the current, the now, to be able to keep operating. Don't know what the
plan would be in the future for actually growing, expanding as an airline if they're giving away
literally all of their fleet options, all of their orders.
[0:30:45] IP: What they've done is they've gotten rid of their A320neo fleet. I mean, basically,
they're rejecting the leases on all the existing A320neo family aircraft. They are giving up their
A320neo family order, which included A320 and A321neo aircraft. Then they're saying, “Okay,
we're going to take a new order of 30 aircraft at some point in the future.” Maybe.
[0:31:10] JR: All right.
[0:31:12] IP: It’s shrinking to survive. It's shrinking to profitability. As we talked about, it has not
worked yet. Maybe Spirit can crack that nut.
[0:31:21] JR: Maybe. Maybe they're just so fed up with the geared turbofan engine issues that
they just gave up their entire neo family aircraft, and they're actually going to operate the aircraft
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that they have to operate. Something. Yeah. Spirit is definitely one of those airlines. Not quite as
bad as, what was the Indian airline that basically was run out of business because of the –
[0:31:44] IP: Go First.
[0:31:45] JR: Go first. There you go. Not quite as bad as that, but certainly not helping the
situation.
[0:31:52] IP: Yeah. We've got a whole bunch of legal news this week, but in other legal news,
Delta and Aeromexico have appealed the US DOT's final order to unwind their joint venture by
January 1st, 2026. This was a suit filed with the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, seeking to overturn
the decision by the DOT. Delta says, “Hey, this is really bad for our customers.” Aeromexico
says, “This is really bad for our business. We shouldn't have to do this.”
[0:32:28] JR: Too bad.
[0:32:30] IP: We know Jason's feelings on it. They want a stay of the order from the DOT by the
court, while the court reviews the appeal. First thing we'll see is if that stay is granted, and then
obviously, we'll see what the eventual ruling is on the appeal.
[0:32:48] JR: Well, yeah. You know what my opinion is. Hopefully, this is not granted.
[0:32:54] IP: Let's talk about Delta in another regard. They said something that was very
interesting this week. Jason, I'm going to let you lead the discussion on this one.
[0:33:03] JR: Oh, okay. Well, all the rage these days is flying narrowbody aircraft over the
Atlantic Ocean. Let's be real, it's the 321neo XLR at this point. Also, we talked about United
launching a bunch of new routes to Europe, transatlantic flights, using the 737 MAX aircraft.
American is going to be launching international flights out of New York JFK with its new
321XLR. But then, you have Delta saying, “You know, this just isn't for us, because there are
brand issues with operating narrowbodies over the Atlantic Ocean to Europe.” Here I am
wondering, what are those brand issues? What exactly is holding Delta back from operating
narrowbodies over the Atlantic Ocean?
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Keeping in mind, Delta is the airline that flew 757s from New York to Africa up till not too long
ago. Clearly, not adverse to flying narrowbodies over the Atlantic, because they did that until, I
think, up until COVID. They still do, I think, the Iceland, perhaps the 757. But brand issues
operating narrowbodies across the Atlantic. Ian, what's your take? What's your feeling on that?
[0:34:23] IP: My feeling on that is that one, they've done it before. That's a weird thing to say. As
you pointed out, they're not new to doing this. Also, to say that they have brand issues in what
would be a brand-new, perfectly lovely, internationally configured cabin, versus an elderly at this
point, 767-300ER.
[0:34:48] JR: You're going there. I see. I see. This is the weird thing. If Delta was able to take
delivery of its 321neos with the Delta 1 product that it wants to, that is not yet certified, that
being a side, Delta flies a huge chunk of its transatlantic operation with the 767-300ER, which
has one of, if not the oldest, premium product across the Atlantic. The 767s are getting very long
in the tooth. The product is very dated. I'm pretty sure my phone is a bigger screen than the
entertainment system in business class. I've been avoiding those for years, if I have the chance
to buy business class, and they're going to fly these up until 2030.
Really, is the perception of a wide-body aircraft so much more positive than a new brand-new
airplane that Delta just won't do it? Or are they just saving face, because they can't do it,
because their product isn't certified?
[0:35:51] IP: I mean, that to me would be a brand issue if you just didn't have seats.
[0:35:55] JR: Yes. I mean, this isn't Lufthansa. They're not going to operate a plane –
[0:35:57] IP: We have stools.
[0:35:58] JR: - four out of 40 seats, because the seats aren't certified, but that's always a
possibility. It just seems weird to say, there are brand issues. I don't think anyone getting
onboard the plane as long as it's nice, cares that it's a narrowbody versus a widebody. I have
been on narrowbodies across the Atlantic, and it's fine. Fine. No one knows the difference.
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[0:36:22] IP: It's fine. We'll see if they change their tune once they get those A321s.
[0:36:26] JR: One day.
[0:36:27] IP: In what I believe is probably just a negotiating ploy, but would be pretty eye-
opening if it actually happened, Turkish Airlines is threatening to walk away from its 737 order,
or large, almost order for up to 150 aircraft, if they cannot come to an agreement with CFM on
the engines.
[0:36:52] JR: Remind me who puts engines on a 320 aircraft.
[0:36:55] IP: Also, CFM. But –
[0:36:56] JR: Oh. Oh, okay.
[0:36:57] IP: Pratt & Whitney. While you do not –
[0:36:59] JR: Well, do Pratt & Whitney engines operate these days?
[0:37:04] IP: Yeah, but the new ones are better.
[0:37:06] JR: That's what they've been saying for a long time, and that has never been true.
[0:37:11] IP: This is an order for 100 plus 50 737-8s, or Dash 10s. At the moment, the deal is
stalled because Turkish is negotiating with CFM for the LEAP 1B engines. Assuming that they
left, they wouldn't be able to take the LEAP 1As on their A320neo family aircraft, so they would
have to go with the Pratt & Whitney, as Jason just mentioned. I guess this is my –
[0:37:41] JR: I don't trust Pratt & Whitney, even if they're new engines. Pratt & Whitney has
proven itself time and time again to not be trustworthy. Even airline executives here in New
York-based airline executives are very vocal in saying, “Hey, these engines suck, don't they?”
Maybe not those words exactly, but pretty much.
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[0:38:00] IP: At least not publicly.
[0:38:01] JR: No, publicly. Yeah, you love a good negotiating tactic made public, right?
[0:38:10] IP: I mean, it makes for good podcast fodder.
[0:38:12] JR: It does right now. It's happening as we speak.
[0:38:16] IP: In other aircraft purchasing news, Lessor TrueNoord has placed its –
[0:38:20] JR: Who?
[0:38:21] IP: Exactly. Dutch Lessor TrueNoord has placed its first ever direct aircraft order with
a manufacturer, going for 20 plus 20 options on the E195E2, as well as options for 10 E175s.
[0:38:38] JR: Hey, they're bigger than I thought. They've got a nice website with a map of tails
of all the places their aircraft are. Apparently, they're all over the place, except for South
America. Interestingly, they've got Porter, Air Canada, Republic Aeromexico, Kam Air, Ethiopian.
They're bigger than I thought. Look at them go. Good for them.
[0:38:58] IP: Yeah. Most of their portfolio, well, their portfolio up until now, has been acquired by
acquiring other lessor’s aircraft. Now they've branched out into purchasing directly from the
manufacturer.
[0:39:10] JR: Good for them. I mean, I can't imagine that these E175 current generation are
going to anyone other than Republic. But hey, I love to see that product line live again and again
and again.
[0:39:26] IP: And again. You can't kill it. It cannot be killed. Let's see. Let's go much, much
bigger than the E175. Let's talk about the first 777-300ER SF. This is the first 777-300ER
freighter that has now gone into revenue service. N778CK has been put into service by Kalitta.
They are flying that aircraft first between Cincinnati and Atlanta, the vaunted – there to make
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sure everything works well. Now it is flying all over the world. If you want to spot that one, have
fun and let us know if you do.
[0:40:05] JR: Flew today, Hong Kong, Anchorage-Anchorage, LA, probably carrying iPhones, or
some sort of other junk like that. That seems like an iPhone run.
[0:40:13] IP: Lots and lots of iPhones.
[0:40:15] JR: That is a good-looking freighter.
[0:40:17] IP: It sure is.
[0:40:19] JR: Got to say, that is a good-looking freighter.
[0:40:22] IP: It really is. We’ll put a link to the photo in the show notes. That's what we'll do.
[0:40:26] JR: Yup.
[0:40:26] IP: Speaking of links to photos in show notes, because this weekend we got some
really good photos of this particular aircraft. Unfortunately, it's about to be retired. I'm talking
about Icelandair's Hekla Aurora Special Northern Lights Livery Aircraft. The elderly 757 that has
worn one of my favorite liveries for nearly 10 years is now set for retirement. It got a slight stay
on its retirement, reportedly because of a broken A321neo. So, they needed it for a few extra
days, but now it's on its way out. Soon, it will join its sibling in the US for, well, part out.
[0:41:15] JR: Oh, that makes you sad. That makes me sad. Yeah, when I think of Icelandair, I
think of 757s, because that's when they've flown for so long. Also, 767s for spoiled passengers
here in New York and Newark also, because those were actually quite nice. I did not know until
right now that they have more 737 MAX aircraft than they do 757s. That snuck up on me a bit.
They've got 12 757s. I guess, less now, because I'm pretty sure they've retired their 300s.
[0:41:48] IP: Yeah.
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[0:41:48] JR: Even though those are counted as active on the fleet on Plane Spotters, but
they've got 21 737 MAX aircraft, most of the MAX. I did not know that the scales tipped not only
in the favor of the 73, but so heavily towards the 73. There's just a psychological difference for
me flying a 75 versus a 73, that I just highly regard the 75 on a transatlantic flight, when the 73
is like, I don't know, maybe a little brand damage here. Don't want to find 73 transatlantic.
Kidding about that part. But honestly, I did not know that they had so many more 73s and 75s at
this point.
[0:42:28] IP: And growing. But the 757 fleet is being wound down as they take delivery of the
A321LRs. We'll see, hopefully, a new special delivery on one of those at some point. One can
only hope.
[0:42:43] JR: Yes, please.
[0:42:44] IP: Also going into retirement this week, Edelweiss' first A340 has gone to storage.
HBJMG was the first to go, but it certainly won't be the last. The number of A340 operators is
indeed shrinking, and they're shrinking rather quickly.
[0:43:03] JR: Yeah. Good time to be talking about that, since we are in the 340 range of the
podcast.
[0:43:08] IP: This is true. This is true.
[0:43:10] JR: They only fly 343s, so we're not allowed to talk about this for two more episodes.
[0:43:15] IP: Okay, we'll bring it back around. There's a great 340-300 joke that we'll use. In a
story that surprised me that this is still happening, and then as I read more into it, I go, “That
makes perfect sense.” Employees have now defunct Alitalia, so not ITA, the current airline that
exists and flies planes now, but employees from Alitalia are set to lose their income guarantees
at the end of the month.
[0:43:44] JR: Wait, hold on. Alitalia hasn't existed in years.
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[0:43:49] IP: Correct.
[0:43:50] JR: Actually, years. Is this like a –
[0:43:52] IP: Four years, correct.
[0:43:53] JR: Is this like a Mexicana thing, where like they've been hanging out in the airport
terminal for years?
[0:43:59] IP: I don't think they've had to hang out in the airport terminal. But this affects about
2,000 employees of the old Alitalia.
[0:44:07] JR: Wait. When you told me this before we started recording, I assumed it was 14
people. It's how many?
[0:44:14] IP: 2,000.
[0:44:17] JR: I love state-run airlines. Love it.
[0:44:18] IP: Yes. It's not to say that they have all been paid a large amount consistently
throughout. That's not what has happened. However, there have been wage guarantees for
these employees over the past four years. It was supposed to end last year. That was extended
to October of this year. It doesn't seem like it will once again be extended. However, it sounds
like there is a union fund that will pick up these employment guarantees from the government.
[0:44:55] JR: None of this makes any sense. As an American, I don't understand any of this.
None of this makes sense to me.
[0:45:01] IP: I hope that the translation that I have read has done this justice. It seems to check
out. But I mean, the translation, rather than it making any sense whatsoever. We'll keep an eye
on this to see if anybody tells me that I'm completely wrong.
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[0:45:18] JR: You know what makes even less sense than Alitalia employees still getting paid,
Ian?
[0:45:24] IP: Our final story of the day.
[0:45:25] JR: Our final story, which I know nothing about. But the show notes just says, Pan Am
certification restart. I am exercising caution in asking this, but what the hell does that mean?
[0:45:39] IP: There is an effort, a foot, a gear by AVI8 Air Capital, and the owner of the Pan Am
brand.
[0:45:57] JR: They actually own the Pan Am brand.
[0:45:59] IP: Yeah. The Pan Am brand owner and this capital group are moving towards part
121 scheduled carrier certification. They say, they've officially started this, though Flight Global
looked for any filings. I looked for filings with the DOT, and Seth Miller, who usually finds these
things the second they've been filed with the DOT, hasn't said anything about it. I assume he
hasn't found anything. We’ll see how official that is.
[0:46:35] JR: Well, apparently, according to their press release, they say they have announced
that they have successfully completed its comprehensive business plan for the potential
relaunch of Pan American World Airways as a scheduled commercial airlines. Boy, this reeks of
what happened with Eastern Airlines, that nonsense that what was it? What was the actual
brand? Was it Xtra Airways that rebranded to Eastern Airlines, that ended up doing nonsensical
Miami to weird Caribbean country flights that never really worked out? Are they just going to
slap a Pan Am brand on a Charger 767-200 again? Is that what’s happening here?
[0:47:13] IP: Well, the idea is that they'll use Airbus aircraft and be based out of Miami.
[0:47:20] JR: Why is Miami the only constant? It's always Miami every time. If something weird
has happened with a dead airline, it's going to be in Miami every time. I didn't even see that.
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[0:47:33] IP: I think we sleep on Miami a lot, because Miami is one of the only airports where
you can see the most modern of aircraft and also see a bunch of DC3 carrying sacks of
whatever to wherever.
[0:47:45] JR: It's the Wild West of the airline industry in the East. The Southeast.
[0:47:51] IP: In the Southeast.
[0:47:52] JR: They have formally, not just initiated, formally initiated the certification process
with the FAA, a key step to reestablishing Pan Am as a US part 121 scheduled carrier, they
have assembled a world-class team to lead the certification effort and received strong initial
support from aircraft lessors and key vendors. Once certified, Pan Am will be headquartered – I
can't not laugh on reading this. Pan Am will be headquartered in Miami and operated a fleet of
Airbus aircraft, subject to all FAA and DOT approvals. Further updates on the certification
process will be shared in the coming months. This is going to be the same nonsense as bringing
back the Eastern Airlines brand and everything is going to be the same. You just erase Eastern
Airlines from the livery and you erase the fact that it was a 767-200, and it's going to be, again,
in Miami and it's going to be an Airbus, I don't know, an A300, if we're keeping constant with
what happened with Eastern Airlines, and they're going to operate to –
[0:48:57] IP: I mean, Pan Am did operate the A300.
[0:48:58] JR: Yup. Yeah. Maybe they'll bring those same aircraft back. I don't know. They're
going to operate to French Guiana, or something. I don't know. We've seen this story before.
[0:49:08] IP: And I'm sure we'll see it again.
[0:49:10] JR: I am looking forward to it.
[0:49:13] IP: I'm glad I could bring some joy to you, Jason.
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[0:49:15] JR: Wow. Yeah. This is what happens when the logos and the rights of a dead brand
get passed on and on and on to someone, eventually called AVI8 Air Capital. They could do
whatever they want with the brand and they're going to.
[0:49:29] IP: Well, good luck to them and we'll keep tabs on this story as they continue their
certification journey.
[0:49:34] JR: It's always Miami though.
[0:49:35] IP: Or not.
[0:49:36] JR: I love it.
[0:49:37] IP: All right. Well, from not Miami, this has been episode 341 of AvTalk. I am Ian
Petchenik, here, as always with –
[0:49:47] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
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