Aaron Judge’s elbow injury examination w/Will Carroll: How bad is it?

00:00:03
Speaker 1: Injury expert Will Carroll is here. Check out the sub stack under the knife for the best info on trade or on injuries with players. And we've got a big one. Will We called you in. You have the bat phone ringing for this one. Aaron Judge on the il elbow issue. Not a tear as far as we know in the UCL, but when he comes back, he's gonna have to DH give us everything you have on this one. This is a top two player in our sport. Should Yankee fans be concerned?

00:00:33
Speaker 2: Sure? You know a lot of people were very worried. I sent out a flash on Saturday afternoon when this happened to let everybody know because the rumors were flying that this was a UCL tear. And now the big news comes out that it's a flexer strain. Everybody's like, oh, it could have been a lot worse. No, it couldn't have. This is worse than the UCL tear. I know that's strange to say, but for a hitter, if you can remember, just a couple of years ago, Bryce Harper ruptured his UCL and continued hitting, took the team to the playoffs, and then had surgery after the season. Barely missed any time, barely threw off his game other than change positions. For judge, a flexor tendon, which is what you need to rotate the bat to maintain grip, to make those fine adjustments that you have to make. This is everything. Without this, he cannot play, which is why he's on the IL. And as we've seen with pitchers, this doesn't heal quickly. This small little tendon, which overlaps with the UCL, often takes a month or even more to heal up. So first, he's not gonna be able to throw. That locks him in at theh That certainly makes a problem with gian Carlos Stanton, who's had his own issues with his elbows. Second we don't know when he's going to be able to hit. It's not like the UCL where it isn't involved in the swing. It's very involved in the swing. So this could go much past the fifteen day. We don't have a solid read on missed. Secondarily, they were very precise with their wording on exactly what's going on if they're albout. They were clear that they're the flexer strained. They didn't say exactly how much I hear it's a grade two, which is bad, but that one could be worse. But they just said the UCL was intact. They didn't say it was fine, they didn't say there was no damage. The whole no structural damage thing is often a little bit of a misnomer. So in this situation, this for Judge, this is bad. So the Yankees this is bad. Okay.

00:02:39
Speaker 3: I have two questions off what you just said. One, how many times do we see pictures flexer strain? Then Tommy John like it seems like picture flexer strained? A month later, Oh, we tried to come back. Oh, we're actually having Tommy John right? And then two, best guess I'm not asking my best, guess how long you think he will be I know you're saying no timetable, but best guess how long until Aaron Judge can be at least a DH for the Yankees.

00:03:05
Speaker 2: Let's start with the second one. I think it's gonna be closer to a month. You know, if we just absolutely take out throwing from this, it's still gonna affect his swing. So I think we're gonna be able to see in about fifteen days how long this is gonna take. I don't think we're gonna know in a week because he's gonna have to let this calm down. I'm sure they're hitting its biologics and anti inflammatories, giving it every possible way to heal up. But the question is how is he going to be functionally. And Luckily, because of things like the traject machine that the Yankees love, they're gonna be able to test that out pretty quickly. You know, they're gonna use light bats, they're gonna use all sorts of functional equipment to see exactly when he can swing. So I think it will be closer to a month than the fifteen days. But again that's just a best guess. As for the former part, the flexor too, you see out, Yeah, you see it a lot in pictures. Yeah, here we are in twenty twenty five. We know a lot. We've come a long way with sports medicine, but we still don't know why the UCL breaks. You know, if you go back to the research, it shouldn't hold up to one pitch, let alone hundreds. We've changed how people pitch. We haven't had one hundred and twenty pitch out in this season in the major leagues, so what we're doing doesn't work. We know that, but the actual biomechanical effects. We simply don't know what causes it, but we got a lot of theories, and one of those is that the flexer and the forearm acts as a break which takes some of the stress off the UCL. So if you take that away, bad things happen. Just like if you cut the brakes in a car, nothing good's gonna happen. After that, Judge said he wanted to come back at the end of the ten days. Yeah, there was a big argument. He didn't even want to go on the IO. I'm assuming based on what you're saying that the medical team's like, no, this isn't good. Is there some type of.

00:04:55
Speaker 4: Wrap, some type of like brace, because we saw Harper I know it was his lead arm. He had that brace when he was going through and recovering from Tommy John. Is there something that they can brace it and maybe get him back in the ten days. Yes, you could basically treat this like a UCL stream or sprain. Excuse me, you could brace him up and see how it goes. I'm sure that's something. If they haven't already done, they're going to do. I think the bigger question here is throwing for Harper. They just shifted him to DH.

00:05:29
Speaker 2: They knew the throwing wasn't gonna happen, so if they're going to do that with Judge, that would certainly improve the odds of return. I just think it's the simple function of the flexer versus the UCL. The UCL is not involved at all. It's not under stress during a normal swing. If you hyper extend, yes a little bit, but that doesn't often happen. But the flex aer. If you take away Aaron Judge's grip with his unique swing, I just don't think he's going to be effective. I think he's gonna miss I think he's not gonna be able to track pitches as well. He's not gonna be able to make the really fine motor adjustments. Just think about what I mean, you guys have done this. How do you adjust to one of these, you know, Jacob Missarowski sweepers that are moving, you know, sixty five feet. It feels like how do you deal with a sinker running in on you. It's those fine adjustments you have to make. Those. I just don't think he's capable of that, at least in the short term.

00:06:28
Speaker 3: We've all seen a lot of us have seen the video of Judge making the throw in Toronto where he kind of grat He's like, ah, could the Yankees have done something different to avoid this or was this just like one throw something happened and if it was gonna happen, it was gonna happen.

00:06:43
Speaker 2: Well, he said it happened on a throw in Toronto, and I've gone back and I don't really see any indication there was a kind of weakish throw. I mean, he's got a good arm now, the plus arm. So no, I don't think it was one thing. I think it probably built up to this. He probably felt a grab at one point, and then the thing that's different for outfielders is they don't warm up. You know, you're out there standing around for a while, you're not making as many throws. You're certainly not doing something there. You can see him kind of grabbing at it. So it's one of those situations where I don't think it was one thing, but it probably feels to him like one thing. Could you brace him up, Yeah, you could put one of those big robot look embraces on him, but it's really gonna affect how he throws. I just don't think he's gonna be able to do that. The question is can you brace him up and have him swing? And I think there's gonna be issues with that.

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00:08:35
Speaker 2: You all right.

00:08:36
Speaker 4: Well, whenever he comes back, he's definitely going to be dhing. How much that puts a strain on Juan Carlos Stanton's elbows. The issue that he had not even talking about his legs is running everything. Is that whatever it was that I mean, I remember reading. I think it was like a tennis elbow in both elbows. Is that something that is more or less inflamed or like if you're playing in the outfield. Is it something that's clearly they're worried about G's health playing in the outfield when they can't d H.

00:09:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's an odd one. They called it tennis elbow, but really what it is is tendonosis, which is you know, tendon nineties is just inflammation of a tendon, in this case one in the elbow. Yeah, it's basically the opposite side of the UCL. But everybody kind of understands tennis elbow and what causes it, and it's usually vibration, it's usually over use. I've heard a lot of talk about just how many swings he takes and did that wear on him and caused those changes. Tendonosis is when there's actually cellular level changes in the tendon itself, and tendons are a weird thing. When you take a tendon and transplanet either into an a CL or A, it actually physically becomes that over a period of about five years. So when you see cellular level changes, those aren't going to get better. So he basically got this chronic issue that he's having to deal with over and over. They've been able to maintain it. He certainly hasn't been the same player he's been over past years. This is one that's just going to continue to get worse. If you add throwing into it, it's not going to be great. I keep thinking back, and you guys will probably remember this one when Albert pool Hoole's hurt his elbow, I think it was two thousand and three. They used to run Edgar Renteria out to him to take a really deep cutoff. They would even kind of undercut it with the first basement. I forget who it was at that point. I think it was probably Tino Martinez, but they would almost do a double cut for deep things just to make sure that Pool Holes didn't have to throw because he frankly couldn't at that stage. So maybe with either Stanton or Judge you could do something similar there. Both of their their middle age. The olders have good arms.

00:11:03
Speaker 3: Crazy crazy, I mean, I don't know why they would. I mean, Stanton, they has to go in the outfield, I guess, but wow, I mean, if you can't throw, it's gonna be interesting.

00:11:10
Speaker 2: It's gonna be interesting.

00:11:11
Speaker 3: But let's talk about two other teams that are having injury issues of their own.

00:11:14
Speaker 2: The Braves.

00:11:15
Speaker 3: Every pitcher they have seems to be going down and the Dodgers. Is this an organizational thing or is this just one of those years where everything went wrong.

00:11:26
Speaker 2: Both for the Braves that was completely unplanned. I mean, you never plan for injuries, but you kind of you don't expect to have an injury sack where every single pitcher on the opening gay roster is gone. Now they've had to bring in people, they've had to make I don't want to call it a desperation trade for fetting, but that's that's essentially what it is. They have so many young arms that they've brought up maybe a little bit early. And you saw the same with the Dodgers, and both of them had costs. You bring up guys and put them in situations where they haven't pitched this much, they certainly to pitch his level. I remember the Dodgers having to bring guys up from Double A, which is as unusual, but it certainly costs them. And we saw the cost. You know, a mitchi And is just now coming back from Tommy John after he was coming out with the Braves. Look the idea that Chris Sale or Spencer Strider or some of these are going to have injuries, Yeah, that's part of the deal. We understand that. First off, these are injury drone players that have had a history of it, and history of injuries is the best prediction of future injuries. These guys have had Tommy John surgeries, Strider's on his second same with the Dodgers. Yeah, they've brought in a lot of players that are really really talented, really expensive, but also really injured. From Tyler Glasnow has always had that issue, Blake Snell always had that issue. They signed Roki Sasaki knowing that he'd had issues last year and pretty much every season of his career because he just so talented on the other hand, with the the bullpen, that's the problem is they just don't have other arms. It should be the easiest thing to collect the arms. It seems like everybody out there just throws ninety six with a sweeper, But everybody that throws ninety six with a sweeper seems to get hurt. So there's a trade off there. I think with both these organizations, they've got to address whether or not their processes are good. But these are both really good medical staffs. You know, if anybody has an elbow injury or a shoulder injury or a knee injury, one of the first falls is to Neil Latrosh, the director of medicine for the Dodgers and the Rams and virtually everybody else. So I don't think that's the problem. I think the front office is going to have to look at themselves and say, are we just taking on too many things to hold together? I mean, obviously it's worked. They're still winning and they've got a World Series ring. So if they're just going to accept those kinds of risk and figure out how to make do with the six starters they've had healthy at any point, it's hard to say it hasn't worked, but man, it's a lot of work on that medical staff. Well, you said one thing interesting to me.

00:14:01
Speaker 3: You said, they bring these kids up from double A and they're not used to it. Is rushing them hurting arms?

00:14:07
Speaker 2: Or is it right?

00:14:08
Speaker 3: Because like everywhere, every organization kind of does the same. We're gonna baby and we're gonna baby and we're gonna baby him. Why like, tell them don't throw ninety eight, throw ninety five and try to save something, right, You don't have to throw a hundred mill an hour sweeper on every pitch. I don't know, it's a question. We we could do yeah, tenos on this issue.

00:14:29
Speaker 2: For I don't think you can. You could say don't throw your hardest and then a hitter turns on you and you're sent back to the minor leagues and can say, well that didn't work. You see guys called up, You see guys signed because they throw one hundred, one hundred and one hundred and four. We're seeing philosophy is what people are changing or chasing. We're seeing all this pitch design that's putting more stress. That's why we're seeing all these lap strains. We're seeing a ton more oblique strands because guys are getting imbalanced. Yeah, this is the news. I don't I think it's the rushing. I really think actually getting guys through. You guys were talking about Nick Kurt's second best game ever. By the way, Sean Green had one that was just a little bit better. It's one of those things where when you look at what's happening. I was looking at Grant Homes today. The Braves pitcher that just went down. He was in the minor leagues for like a decade and the highest he ever went was one hundred and forty eight innings, and that was back in like twenty seventeen. Most of these pictures that we see, these top minor league prospects aren't going to touch one hundred innings this year. Forget the idea that we're gonna have guys who are throwing one hundred and ninety two hundred innings at the mayde who have those days seemed to be gone and there's no good reason for it. You know, I'm sure you guys talked to guys who threw two hundred and fifty three hundred innings not that long ago, Back when you guys were playing, that was regular. Yeah, when I started out a baseball perspectives. We have a stat called pitcher abuse points, which was when we were seeing guys go one hundred and fifty, one hundred and sixty pitchers, we haven't had one go one hundred and twenty. I think the biggest problem is that at the minor league level, we're not setting these guys up for success because they're not putting on any workload. Babying them isn't working, just differently than overworking them was. We've got to find a middle ground. I think there's some methods that would work, but that would take a whole different segment of the show.

00:16:25
Speaker 1: Yep, I'm with you. We used the example close to home for you, White Ox. Who is it? Noah Schultz?

00:16:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, he went three years in the minor leagues and never through five innings, never made it to a fifth inning, never made a fifth inning. Like, what are we doing?

00:16:40
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:16:41
Speaker 3: I trust me, I don't understand. If you talk to pictures, they don't understand it. But the more we baby them, the more they get hurt.

00:16:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, you pitch more in high school and college in terms of length in a game, and then you go backwards for a while, make it make sense.

00:16:54
Speaker 2: I'll make it. I think there's pictures out there that could throw a lot more. The issue is we don't have any or a system. You know, if I wanted to say, hey, go bench press three hundred pounds, I'm not going to strap three hundred pounds on there and hope I'm going to build up to it or for crats, I guess that would be just a Tuesday. It's one of those days or things where why don't we use the systems that work? If I want to run a marathon, I don't just go run a marathon. I build up to it. Why don't we see if these guys can throw eighty five ninety five, one hundred, there are guys out there that probably go full Leavon Hernandez and throw one hundred and fifty innings every other or one hundred and fifty pitcheons every other day. Who could go three hundred innings the way guys used to. But we don't have any system to get there.

00:17:43
Speaker 1: That's a good point. Yeah, it's a broken system right now, and I have not seen many fixes. We talk about it a lot the last few years, but not many fixes yet, which is a damn shame.

00:17:53
Speaker 2: Well, billion dollar problem. And if you think about any of these billionaire owners, if they had any other business where they were burning money like this, they would be doing something. Please tell me what the league is doing.

00:18:06
Speaker 1: They're very focused on something else, which we're gonna cover next.

00:18:11
Speaker 2: They are.

00:18:12
Speaker 1: They're very focused on something else, and multitasking seems to be a problem. And the report that they came out with, which again we could spend a lot of time on, I know way less than you and then most and I didn't learn much from that report, so I was like, oh boy, this is where we're at. Anyway, Well, this was awesome, man, Thanks for jumping on with us. Appreciate the time. We'll catch it soon.

00:18:32
Speaker 2: Thanks us.

00:18:34
Speaker 1: Aaron Judge has a pretty significant injury here. The Yanks are downplaying it. That's the job of the team. Were you more concerned when you heard what will said?

00:18:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I didn't realize this was that big of a deal. I mean, I've heard what cratzord, which is he was gonna be back in ten days, didn't want to go on the IL And now all of a sudden, what Willson was a month. I put them to the end of August. They're already falling behind the Blue Jays rapidly, and you lose your best player by far, like that's.

00:19:02
Speaker 2: A huge blow.

00:19:03
Speaker 4: They're game and a half up in the wild Card like like we're not we're not talking about it. It's like they're looking up at the Blue Jays like we got to catch them, and all of a sudden like, oh crap, here comes the Rangers, Here comes you know, here comes the Mariners. There's a lot of teams that are chasing them here and yeah, it's a month. That's that's news to me. That is I would be surprised if and then if he comes back too soon, Oh, he came back too soon. If if it reaggravates it or it makes it worse, which is the last thing you want.

00:19:35
Speaker 1: It gets tricky. But this is why you're looking at the wild Card seats. Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners hold them and Mariners and Rangers are tied fifty six and fifty, right, so one of those teams on the outside kind of looking in. And then it's the Raise three games out, Guardians three and a half out, Royals four out, Angels five out. It helps to explain why some of these teams might not sell. I'm talking about the Royals who clearly.

00:19:58
Speaker 3: Are not selling.

00:20:00
Speaker 1: Angels should sounding more and more like the are gonna sell.

00:20:03
Speaker 3: Rais are probably gonna sells, are probably gonna a.

00:20:07
Speaker 1: Great pitching staff. They should do. They should not be selling, I.

00:20:10
Speaker 3: Know, but they just try to thread the needle where they buy and sell at the same time. You know, it's it's it's.

00:20:16
Speaker 1: Look at your surroundings. They should not be selling.

00:20:19
Speaker 4: Why don't the giants have anything to sell?

00:20:22
Speaker 3: What do you mean they already get go with their pieces?

00:20:26
Speaker 1: You mean, why don't they have anything to sell? They're three games out of a wild card spot.

00:20:29
Speaker 4: They're buying three games. See, yeah, that's the max. That's the max if you're if you're a four or five, they lose two more. They're on a slide, must posing. Nobody even talks about what places they would have