Fair Territory: Dylan Cease signs w/Toronto, Orioles land Helsley, Rays shopping Brandon Lowe?

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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of the Fair Territory Extravaganza. Monday Fair Territory Post Thanksgiving. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I am Ken Rosendahl here with you for the next I don't know, twenty five minutes or so. And this is the week, the week when things generally generally start to ramp up in Major League Baseball's off season. This is the week leading to the Winter Meetings, and you will see certainly increased conversation. Whether it leads to increased results remains to be seen. Over the Thanksgiving holidays, starting Thanksgiving Eve and going right through the weekend, we had two reported signings. We're going to get into both of them today. We're also going to get into kind of a Winter Meetings preview. Biggest storylines that'll be in the inside Dish. But let's start off with what happens over the holiday because we haven't been on the air since then, and start with the most recent signing, and that would be the Orioles two year, twenty eight million dollar deal for Ryan Helsley with an opt out after the first year. Hellsley, of course drew some interest as a starter as well. The Detroit Tigers were among the teams looking at him as a starter, But ultimately he goes back to the role in which he is most familiar, a role in which he took a step back last year, first with the Saint Louis Cardinals and then especially with the New York Mets. But his peripherals, his underlying metrics remained quite strong. He throws hard. He is a guy that teams still believe in. He had a good market quite obviously to get fourteen million a year for two years, that's decent money for a closer. Not what he would have gotten if he had been a free agent after twenty twenty four, perhaps, but still for Hellsley, a good outcome. Now for the Orioles, this is the latest of several moves that they have made this offseason. They have been I would suggest the busiest team at least in terms of results of any thus far. And I'll show you what I'm talking about here, because they've already made four additions, starting off with Andrew Kischen. You remember they traded for him from the Chicago Cubs, then exercised his option. They had traded him to the Cubs and then brought him back Leodi Tavers enters, their center field mixx now with Colton Kowser, Taylor Ward, the big and controversial trade for Grayson Rodriguez, and now Hellsley, the closure that they needed with Felix Bautista out for at least much of the season. They still need to keep going with the bullpen ins particular, they still need to round it out because basically they traded most of their relievers, some of whom are becoming free agents during last season. Now, the biggest thing with the Oriols, the biggest thing that remains the biggest thing that has haunted them since really last off season, is their lack so far of a top of the rotation starting pitcher, and frankly I would like to see them add more than one starter. But they definitely are team that we should watch for the top of the free agent market. I'm talking about from ber Valdez, Rangers Suarez perhaps to am I also they are a team to watch with regard to trades. This is a team that if trades are made for starting pitchers, if some of these guys become available, the Orioles should be in that equation. There's also a guy I wrote about today my notes called Cody Ponce, who is coming back from Korea. I wrote that he's probably going to get three years, thirty to forty million. That's the kind of guy too, that the Orioles should look at as maybe a secondary piece. So if they signed Valdez, for instance, and Michaelias goes back with Valdez to the Houston Days and then acquired Cody Ponce as well, they could do that just by spending money not making any trades. That would be an interesting combination for them. And of course they also could remain active for a bat, perhaps in centerfield, perhaps Kyle Tucker, another guy Michael Oias knows well from Houston. He drafted Kyle Tucker with the fourth pick of the twenty and fifteen draft. So that's the Orioles now sticking in the Al East. The move that happened Thanksgiving Eve, this one was rather fascinating too, even more fascinating than the Hell's They move. And that's of course Dylan cease to the Blue Jays cease seven years are reported two hundred and ten million. There are deferrals in that deal, as I reported, and then Mitch Badnen of the Athletic followed with this seeing the deferrals are expected to reduce the present value AAV of the deal to around twenty six million per year, still the largest pitching contract in Blue Jay's history. So with the deferrals, we probably should look at it if it's indeed twenty six per year as more of a seven year, one hundred and eighty two million dollar deal for Cease, still really healthy, a really good deal for a guy who always seems to have a lot of interest. People love him in the industry, and yet his results at times have been inconsistent. Top five cy Young finish in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty four, and yet the results, as I just said, haven't always been there, and it's curious to people why that happens. There are some reasons. Keith Law has written about that for the athletic, but Cease for any negatives you might have with him, the positives is or the positives are, he always takes the ball. Here's his bio one hundred and sixty ninth overall pick in twenty fourteen, debut in twenty nineteen, career milestones, five straight seasons, thirty two plus starts. We'll get into that al War leader in twenty twenty two. That's the year he finished second in the cy Young five straight seasons, two hundred strikeouts, that's impressive. And then here he is in twenty twenty five. And this is what I'm talking about. Four point five to five era on a team in which Nick Pivetta pitched really well and had a good ra but Cease, for whatever reasons, didn't have that. It wasn't great out of the stretch, just seems to give up hits at inopportune times at points in his career. But I want to show you the durability because this, to me, is the thing that recommends Dylan Cease the most since twenty twenty one, when he really became a regular starter most games started in the last five seasons. And here's what's interesting about this chart. Cees, Burrios and Gosman. What team do they all play for? The Toronto Blue Jays. They're the top three on this list, well, Gosmin tied with Logan Webb and Patrick Corbyn. But the Jays have assembled a group of guys who should pitch, should take the ball. Treya Savage next season likely will be on some kind of innings limit. He'll still be only a rookie. And then you have as well, Shane Bieber first full season off Tommy John I don't know if they can expect him to go two hundred and twenty five innings. So the Jays are in really good shape here with their rotation, and the question then becomes, what are they going to do next, because this is a team that really has a variety of ways they can go. Is it going to be Boba Schet, Is it going to be Kyle Tucker? Most likely we will see them get a reliever of some ilk, whether it's Edwin Diaz or Pete Fairbanks, someone along those lines. Devin Williams. We'll talk more about the relievers as we go on here, but the Blue Jays obviously quite eager to defend their American League championship and quite eager to get where they did not get this season, even though they were just two outs away their first World Series title since nineteen ninety three. One of the things sticking with the al least I mentioned this in my notes column today, it's about the Tampa Bay Rays. Now, the Rays are not going to be as active as the Blue Jays and the Orioles and the Yankees and the Red Sox. But the Rays are a team that will make moves. We know that they always seem to make moves, and Brandon Lao coming up on the last year of his contract at eleven point five million. They've talked about trading him for several years now, and this maybe will be the year they do it, given the need that some teams have for a left handed hitting middle infielder. That's what Lao is and one of the better ones in the game when healthy. Brandon Lao is number three on the Rays all time home runless But let's not get too sentimental when we're talking about raised players. They're willing to trade them at any point. So Brandon lau could go. The Rays then would be left with a whole second base that they don't really have an internal solution for. But here's a guy that would fit for Pittsburgh, a team that's more likely in my opinion, to get their left handed bats making trades then signing free agents. San Francisco needs a second base and there are other teams that could be in this mix as well. The Athletics are also looking for second base and third base potentially, so there are three teams in the Al East, and we haven't even talked about the Yankees and the Red Sox. We're going to get more into them as we go along here. The Red Sox already have made a big move for Sonny Gray, seemingly solving their biggest rotation need. I would still like to see them get one more and then we have to see what they're going to do with their bats. Are they going to trade them? Are I'm talking about some of their outfielders. Are they going to go resign Alex Gregman? Are they going to be other bats in their mix? Sean mccatton of mass Live dot com reporting over the weekend, they may have some payroll restrictions. Every team talks about payroll restrictions this time of year. They're building in the excuses. But anyway, we will be back with more on the Yankees in particular, and a lot of other winter storylines when we come back with the Inside Dish after this KP.

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Speaker 1: All right, time now for the inside Dish, and as promised, we're going to take you through the top five storylines leading to the Winter Meetings. This will apply, of course to the Winter Meetings, but this is the stuff to watch. And we'll start at the top of the free agent market, Kyle Tucker and even Cody Bellinger. Let's talk about the biggest bats available. Tucker is a guy we haven't heard much about so far. Doesn't mean there's not a lot happening with him, and you're going to see teams jump out for him, and they're going to team be teams that jump out for And there are other bats in this market as well, Schwarber and Bashett and Bregman. But Tucker and Bellinger both left handed hitters, both outfielders for the most part. Bellinger, of course, can play first base as well. These are perhaps the two most interesting guys, and the New York Yankees should be in the middle of both of them, at least, talking about Bellinger at the very very least. Now here's Tucker. He is a guy who is just twenty eight years old as of right now. He'll be twenty nine in January. Four time all start, two times silver slugger. We know who Kyle Tucker is a five tool player, and there's been debate among certain segments of the Yankee fan base and the athletics. Chris Kershner has wrote about this as well. Is he a better fit for the Yankees than Cody Bellinger. It seems to me the Yankees are more inclined to sign Bellinger. And you look at his vitals right there. Here's a guy that has had an up and down career, but lately back on the upswing seat, twenty seventeen Rookie of the Year, twenty eighteen NLCSMVTY nineteen NLMVP, twenty twenty World Series Champion, and in the last two seasons has re established himself after you remember getting non tendered by the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger is in many ways a perfect fit for the Yankees. Now, he is not the better player. Kyle Tucker is the better player. And yes, Tucker has had some injuries the past two seasons and it's raised some doubts about him, but they've been kind of flukish and he is an all around type of guy, as is Cody Bellinger. So I expect Tucker to do better, and I expect the Yankees, if they don't end up with Bellinger, to be scrambling a little bit because I don't know that they want to pay Tucker. The ideal situation for the Yankees my opinion here is sign Bellinger, sign am I, the Japanese right handed pitcher who is just twenty eight years old, and then sign maybe a closer. I don't know which one it would be. But if they do all that, they're having a pretty good offseason. So Tucker and Bellinger, it's going to be interesting to see how these guys land. For sure, will Tucker get the four hundred million, I don't know. We're gonna have to see how that all plays out. All right. Now, the NL East, that's another interesting storyline here because of all the action taking place with the top contenders. I'm talking about the Mets, the Braves, and the Phillies. Let's start with the Mets because they are maybe the most interesting team going right now due to the uncertainty of their roster. Now they've made the trade Brandon Neimo from Marcus Simion, Pete Alonzo and Edwin Diaz still free agents. They supposedly want to retain them, but as we've seen, and as Will Simon has written about in The Athletic, their level of sentiment goes only so far. They were willing to trade Nemo, who was a career met, a guy that was really beloved by the fan base in many ways. If they don't resign Alonzo, if they don't resign Diaz, at this point, I don't know that it can be considered a surprise. But then the question becomes, then, what what are the Mets going to do? They need starting pitching. We all know that even if they don't trade code I Single, which I expect they will, they're going to need to sign a big starter for sure, maybe get another one in some other way, and that's where they really need to put their focus. They lose Diaz, they need a closer as well. Maybe it's Devin Williams, maybe it's someone else. But they're a team that you would expect is going to be quite active now. The Phillies are also a fascinating team because, like the Mets, they do not want to keep the same mix. It hasn't worked, or at least it hasn't resulted in a World Series title. Kyle Schwarber, JT Real Muto their biggest free agents. If they resign them, okay, but that's the same group, and maybe you feel like you want to shake it up a little bit. Trading Alec Bohm would be one way to do it. But Schwarber is a guy that is so valuable to them. I can't see them losing the hymn and going forward in the same way unless they feel, Okay, we lose Schwarber, we get Kyle Tucker, and maybe they are a dark horse for Kyle Tucker in that regard. Then there are the Atlanta Braves. Now, the Atlanta Braves already have re signed Racil Iglesias, They've traded for Mauricio Duban, but we are waiting for bigger things from them, and Iglesias fills a need for sure the closer role. But they've been a team that has been interested in adding not only a shortstop but also a starting pitcher. They're also a team with a chairman, Terry McGirk, who has said we anticipate being a top five pay roll team. He's not crying poor like the Yankees even the Red Sox to an extent, He's saying, hey, we should be top five. If that's the case, they should be spending and spending big. We'll see what the Atlanta Braves do. And then the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are a team that has been active, at least in talking about free agents. Let's see what the action results in. All right, Now, a couple of other things to get to here, best remaining free agent closures. We touched on this a little bit. Edwin Diaz is the top guy in the market, is saddled with theying offer, and I wonder how much that is going to affect things for him. Let's say the Mets go in another direction. Let's say the Blue Jays go in another direction. Well, then what is it for Edwin Diaz? Where is his team? I'm always hesitant to talk like that because there are always teams in the mix. But will he get what he is seeking, which is essentially the same deal he had been on five years, one hundred and two million before opting out? Other closers we've talked about then Devin Williams, Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks, and then there was a whole nother tier talking about guys like Luke Weaver, Emilio Pagan, even Tyler Rogers not a closer. But these are quality late inning relievers, guys that teams will want and I would expect get paid fairly well. So the relief market is one to watch for sure, as is. As we move on here, the starting pitching market. Now we touched on this as well from Bravaldez thirty two years old. That's the only thing against him, well not maybe not the only thing. He's had some questions about his clubhouse presence as well well the kind of teammate he is. But he is a guy that's been remarkably consistent. He's a sinker baller. He's the kind of pitcher you would want to have. He's fairly durable as well. So Valdez I expect will be up around cease territory, whether you consider it one hundred and eighty two million in present value or to ten with the deferrals whatever, he's going to do well. Maybe he doesn't get the years, but in terms of aav that's what I'm talking about with regard to cease am. I his posting is up on January tewod so I don't expect we'll see him sign the winter meetings probably will be Christmas week for him. But he's a guy that is a little bit bigger than Yamamoto, but not much, and he's had success over in Japan. Of course, you see his twenty twenty five stats there one point nine to two ERA one hundred and seventy eight strikeouts and one hundred and sixty three and two thirds innings. He's a guy the teams want, and it's going to be interesting to see where he goes. Because over the weekend there was a report by Buster Only a ESPN saying the Giants, a team that had been link to am I, are really looking at lower cost options. Yankee fans immediately jumped on this thing. He's there for us. Again, I caution you ever against saying well, it's only one team involved. I'm sure there are other teams looking at am I as well. So that's the starting pitching market. And finally, the other part of the starting pitching market, which is trades. Now, we've talked a lot about Trek Scoubel and Freddie Peralta and Joe Ryan and Sandy al Cantra and Edward Cabrera, all these guys that could repeat could be traded. But the way it was described to me by an executive over the weekend is that in the cases of Schooble and Peralta and maybe even Ryan, but Schooble and Peralta, for sure, they're not going to be traded unless their teams get really pushed their teams are not motivated to trade them. Now. Could that change once the free agents are off the board and certain teams are more desperate. Yes, and I expect that at the winter meetings, if not before. You're going to see reports of teams trying to push on schooble In Peralta and Joe Ryan as well. But that doesn't mean they're going to get traded. We hear this all the time. We see this all the time. Teams take interest in players, they entertain offers, but they don't necessarily trade them. The Tigers are trying to win with Trek Scoobel, The Brewers are trying to win with Freddy Peralta. The Twins are a separate case because I don't know what the heck they're doing. I'm not sure they know what the heck they're doing, as they are just coming off this situation where they sold part of the team to investors to basically pay down their debt. What that means for the payroll we don't know yet. We don't know if they will want to trade Joe Ryan or if at the other end of the spectrum they'll want to maybe build up a little bit and put a better product on the field since they've already alienated their fan base to a great extent. So all of this with regard to the starting pitching market in which pictures get traded, should be clearer after the free agent sign but maybe it starts and the talk starts even before that. I do not expect that pitchers like Trek Schooble and Freddie Peralta will be out of the headlines just because their teams are presently saying we're not really going to trade them. All right, That is it for the inside Dish. Now catch Foul Territory Live from the Winter Meetings in Orlando Monday through Wednesday at one pm Eastern on the ftutube channel. Expect big name guests joining Scott Brown, AJ Prazinski, and Eric Kratz all three days. Subscribe on YouTube, rate five stars wherever you get your podcasts to the entire Foul Territory network. We'll be back with Brillian Ken your questions right after this.

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Speaker 1: FAM Time Now for Grill and Ken. Let's get to your questions. First. One comes from Tyler Max Smith, who asks does the braves landing an extra draft pick from Baldwin's Rookie of the Year Award make them more or less likely to sign a qualifying off for free agent. That's a good question, and I would say the answer is more likely because if you sign a qualifying off for free agent, you lose a draft pick, but at the same time, at the same time, you gain one from the compensation that results from the Rookie of the Year awards. So I would expect that, Yes, the Braves would be more likely to do that. Yes they want to keep their picks. All teams do, but that to me would seem to be the way to go. So let's see what happens there now. Next question. This one comes from Harold Garb on Instagram, who says who pays for a free agent that undergoes a surgical procedure his former team or himself. A free agent undergoing a surgical procedure would obviously have to do it himself. I would think his former team is not responded at that point, he is not under contract to that team. But it's pretty rare when we see free agents undergo surgeries while they are on the open market. I can't even remember the last time that happened, so I wouldn't think that that is a thing. It's a good question, and it's a legitimate question because of course players would want to get that taken care of before they are, in theory unemployed, but it just doesn't happen all that often. All right, next question, let's see what this one is. This one comes from Peter Ross nineteen oh seven, who asks Yankees are interested in a new second basement and what relievers are they in on. I don't expect the Yankees aren't necessarily interested in his second basement. They've got jass Chisholm Junior to play that position. That's his preferred position. Third base is a different story to some extent, but they've got Ryan McMahon there, so I don't know why the Yankees would be looking at second or third base. Shortstop is the question with them, with volt becoming off surgery and whose Caballero being more of a utility player. I would expect they'll start the season with Caballero and then go to Volpi once he is healthy. There just aren't a lot of good shortstops available at the present time, so that is where the Yankees are with their infield relievers. I don't know exactly where they're going to go there, and they're I'm sure looking at all the top closers out there and talking to all of them, from Devin Williams to Edwin Diaz, all of them. But price is going to be a question, and it's going to be a question of just how they want to do it, because they've got David bednoin now, they acquired him in the trade, so they don't need necessarily a ninth inning guy. Maybe one of those lesser relievers that I talked about, lesser in terms of name valued, Milio Pagan, one of those guys Tyler Rodgers that is more appealing to them. Samuel Rotiz three four to three nine, ask, good morning, what's up with the Dodgers? What are they up to? Good question? As always, The Dodgers are a team that, in the terms of one executive, like to hang around the backboard. And what I mean by that is they like to see the market develop and then they kind of say, Okay, if we can get this kind of short term deal, we'll take him. If not, we'll pass. They are looking at relievers along those lines. One year guy I can see making sense for them, even though they've got Tanner Scott under contract still and let's see if they become a player for Kyle Tucker or someone else whose market might not develop to the extent that that player wants. I don't think it's going to happen that way with Tucker, but they could use Kyle Tucker for sure. And they're a team that I expect is going to do something. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's very difficult to bring the same team back, especially when you've got so many older players. It doesn't always work the way you want it. You want to change up the mix a little bit. I do expect that they're going to do that. All right. With that, I want to thank everyone for watching, for listening. Foul Territory coming up Zach Britten, Schida Beadi, and Bob Kendrick from the Negro League's Hall of Fame on the Show Today with Eric kratz, Aj Prazinski and Scott Throwing. Fair Territory returns Thursday at twelve thirty Eastern. Have a great week, everyone, Talk to you then.

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