662: Mailbag 8/12/22

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J.

00:00:06
Speaker 2: Zacher reson.

00:00:11
Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode six hundred and sixty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by a FanDuel.

00:00:20
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Before we get into the mail bag questions this week, I want to remind you about the Established The Run Draft Kid Established Run as rankings for any fantasy format you might be playing in, and they continuously update as news breaks. You also get to access to Evan Silva's top one fifty and along with it a change log that you can read to see why players are moving up and down his draft board. It's a great way to make sure you understand why players are ranked where they are. The goals to help you make better decisions, not tell you who to pick, and if you're into best ball drafting, their strategy, rankings and insight can help you out a ton with roster construction. I know I've learned a lot from their analysis myself. Established Run gives you a different perspective on fantasy football than I do. I think the common of my work in THEIRS can help make this draft season a successful one, so head over to establish the Run dot com and purchase their draft kit, and when you do, use promo code JJ for a ten percent discount. That's promo code jay J. Also, there's some big news over at FanDuel. Fandel has an all new mobile gaming app, FanDuel Faceoff. With Fandle Faceoff, you compete in quick, fun games against other real people for real cash. It is all sorts of games that you're familiar with, like a home run, Derby, Wheel of Fortune, puzzle and strategy games, with more on the way. Contests are action packed and last between two to five minutes, so you can play on your couch, waiting in line during a commercial break wherever, and you can do it on your schedule. Plus, you can practice for free anytime, whether it be head to head, multiplayer or larger tournaments. Fandel Faceoff has something for you. Plus, in most contests, you'll be match against players of similar skill level, so you're never really totally overmatched, even as a beginner. Faceoff is also tied to your FanDuel account and wallet, so you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app. Visitfandle dot com slash faceoff or download the Fandle Faceoff app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game. Agent location researchers apply voidware prohibited seefandle dot com slash faceoff hyphen terms for terms and conditions. The first question this week says JJ, I love listening to your podcast on the way to work. Thanks, thank you. Can we fade the dead zone mindset this year? Typically I'm a heavy running back drafter. However, this year it seems there are so many running backs in rounds three to seven range that I like. I'm finding it easier to take wide receivers early. I really appreciated your take on Eli Mitchell. I already liked Edmonds, then you spoke on him, and I'm more confident in him. This year, ETN seems like a lock to catch sixty to seventy balls. Breese Hall has such a high combine profile and that team didn't just trade up for nothing. Miles Sanders just seems to be in a great position with little competition, and I'm lucky to not have been burnt by him in the past. Rashad Penny has the opportunity to get most of the carries been a much improved oh line. His ninth round ADP seems like an immense value. Am I wrong to fade the dead zone approach and take these guys? So? I think there needs to be an understanding of what the running back dead zone is. I wrote about this in depth in the Late Round Draft guide, and you can listen to some of the episodes in the past of this show that I've done on the topic.

00:03:25
Speaker 2: Episode six hundred and forty three.

00:03:27
Speaker 1: Was one that I did this offseason on beating the dead zone, and then episode five hundred and fourteen was on the running back dead zone itself. Someone like Rashadpenny is not part of the running back dead zone. The dead zone I've found based on historical ADP data from Myfantasy League dot com, the dead zone is basically halfway into round three through round five or six in a twelve team league, if you want to condense.

00:03:52
Speaker 2: That a little bit.

00:03:52
Speaker 1: The obvious dead zone rounds in twelve teen leagues around four and five. So players like Chase Edmonds, Rashadpenny, even Miles Sanders and most drafts, they're not dead zone running backs. Now this is getting a little bit more complicated because there's so many different sources for ADP.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: Now, if you do a best Ball draft.

00:04:10
Speaker 1: Right now, you're gonna see players like Antonio Gibson and Elijah Mitchell and Josh Jacobs, and the middle rounds of your draft, like beyond round five into round six and sometimes round seven. But you're managed home league, your office league, some random league that you join, the league that ninety nine percent of you are playing in this year, those prices are gonna look a lot different for those running backs. According to Fantasy pros half PPR aggregate ADP, Jacobs is still forty fourth overall, Antonio Gibson is a late third round pick. Eli Mitchell's going forty sixth overall. Maybe some of that's skewed a little bit and it's not too reactionary, but the point is that a lot of these types of running backs are still falling squarely into the traditional dead zone. But I also kind of want people to think about dead zone running backs not just in terms of where they're being drafted. I know that doesn't sound like it makes any sense, but what the dead zone really comes down to is twofold opportunity cost and ceiling the opportunity cost is the fact that there are generally really really good wide receivers who emerge from that dead zone area. So when you get a running back, you're not able to get one of those wide receivers. I talked about this all the time when it came to Cooper Cup last year. I wasn't on this podcast talking up Cooper Cup saying he was gonna have this monster, monster season. I didn't mind Cup, but I wasn't drafting him heavily. I wasn't getting him in every single draft, but I still got a decent amount of Cooper Cup. And you want to know why, It's because I avoided the running back dead zone running backs. My alternative then was wide receivers in that range, and Cooper Cup was one of those wide receivers. This is why strategy can be so impactful. This is why strategy can dictate player analysis to some degree. Now, the ceiling component is the fact that players in this range, running backs in this dead zone, they're generally not providing league winning upside at a better rate than a running back. You can get three or four rounds later, and some of the running backs that you just mentioned in this question can be had three or four rounds later, so you don't have to think about a dead zone running back only in terms of cost. It's also just inherently having some upside, So if a dead zone running back falls in a draft, the opportunity costs out of the equation drops.

00:06:18
Speaker 2: Right.

00:06:19
Speaker 1: If Antonio Gibson is going in the fourth round in most home league drafts, but he ends up as an eighth rounder in yours, the players you're for going to get Antonio Gibson are not nearly as good. But if that entire group is falling in a draft, like if Jacobs, Eli, Mitchell, cam Akers, Antonio Gibson, all these home league dead zone backs, if they all drop, then that means other running backs are likely dropping too, so you're still getting a similar ceiling from running backs that are going later, Like I like Chase Edmonds this year in a PPR format, If Chase Edmonds typically goes in round eight and all of these dead zone running backs drop, then that means Edmonds is probably dropping two because those dead zone backs will still get drafted before him.

00:07:03
Speaker 2: So don't just.

00:07:04
Speaker 1: Think in terms of round drafted, even though the majority of drafts will formulate some sort of running back dead zone. Think of it also as talent and ceiling. These dead zone running backs generally just lack a true ceiling. But like I said, there are ways to beat the dead zone. I've talked about that on episode six hundred and forty three.

00:07:21
Speaker 2: Overall, though I.

00:07:22
Speaker 1: Would not fade the dead zone mentality. Players will emerge from the dead zone. There will be some decent players that come out from that area of the draft, but from a probability standpoint, it's a bad bet. This next question from Patreon is from justin It says, is there a guy who you think might break out that might go against some of your statistical findings for breakout players. Yes, I think Brandon Ayuk is the answer to this. I'm pretty much at ADP with Ayuk, but he absolutely does not fit the breakout wide receiver criteria. He's a third year wide receiver. Third year wide receivers actually been bad bets in the middle rounds historically, and he's got a wide receiver teammate going early. That's another tough data point for a wide receiver. But I'm more inclined to take Ayuk at his ADP than Deebo Samuel at his The forty nine Ers should take more down the field shots with Trey Lance undercenter versus Jimmy Garoppolo, and that should help Ayuk more than the other pass catchers on that team. His average at the target was two yards higher than Deebo's last year, and twenty two point four percent of Ayuk's targets went fifteen or more air yards, when Diebo is at sixteen point seven percent. I think Brandon Ayuk's just an awesome player too. He ranked really well in my year two model, and while things didn't go well for him last year, that year two model is predicting year two and year three output the best season of those two, so we've got one more year for Brandon Ayuk. My hesitation, though, in going all in with Ayuk is that the forty nine ers have a mobile quarterback that's not good for pass catchers, and they're a run heavy team that also limits volume. They also have very good options alongside Brandon Ayuk. They have George Kittle and Deebo. Samuel so Iyuk I think can dominate in real football and that should translate to some degree in fantasy. But the reason I'm not like way higher than consensus on him this year is because we have to at least be cognizant.

00:09:16
Speaker 2: About a situation.

00:09:18
Speaker 1: But despite him not checking boxes for a breakout, I'm still fine with anyone drafting him at ADP.

00:09:25
Speaker 2: This task question is from at Bolt's Chief.

00:09:27
Speaker 1: It says, Hey, JJ, what are your thoughts on Kyle Pitts as an early third round pick considering the fact that onesI positions are way more valuable? Since I have an advantage over my home league rivals in terms of drafting late round values and his incredible upside as a talent. When I'm in more of a casual draft, I do exactly what you just mentioned. I'm more inclined to take a tight end early because I know that ADP is going to be absolutely wild in that draft and I should be able to pick off some value as a result.

00:09:56
Speaker 2: The way I viewed Pits.

00:09:58
Speaker 1: Is basically that he's an elite talent, so I can understand drafting him. His projection comes out at tight end three, and he's a monster. Sometimes in fantasy football it can be that simple. I've drafted him in plenty of Best Ball drafts all summer, but I'm more inclined to do so when he falls into the fourth round rather than the third. But I do think the point made here is a very important one. Deciding whether or not to go with an early round tight end. That can often be a decision about the draft room itself. If you know that you're in a sharper draft, maybe you want some more insurance at running back and wide receiver. You can't take on that opportunity cost. If it's more casual, you can take on that risk. And for the record, getting an early round tight end is risky. I know it seems like it's not I know that seems counterintuitive, but it's really more of a high upside play rather than a high floor play. Yes, you're likely to have an edge over your teammates at the tight end position, but the opportunity cost in doing that is still really, really high. The first three rounds of your fantasy draft have really good hit rates at running back in wide receiver. So I'm fine with getting Kyle Pitts, and I think that you can get an elite tight end, especially in these more casual drafts. The third round is a little bit rich for me, but I love Kyle Pitts as a player, and you should.

00:11:13
Speaker 2: Get your guys.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: This as Christens from zach It says, Hey, JJ just recently started listening and I love the show.

00:11:20
Speaker 2: Thanks.

00:11:21
Speaker 1: I'm curious what your general thoughts are on DeAndre Hopkins, both this year and in Dynasty. Obviously, his best days are behind him and he's got the suspension, but any chance we see him bounce back for a couple more years or do you think he just continues to go downhill?

00:11:34
Speaker 2: Thanks?

00:11:35
Speaker 1: I think it's only natural to be concerned with Hopkins. He's thirty years old, so he's on the downswing in terms of age, and we've only seen eleven wide receiver season since twenty eleven where the wide out was in his tenth year or later and he scored sixteen PPERO points per game or more. Hopkins is entering year ten. He also saw last year, for the first time since his rookie season, a target year per game rate under twenty percent. His yards per route run rate was his lowest twenty sixteen when he played with Brock Osweiler, and his targets per route run rate last year that was the lowest in his rookie season.

00:12:07
Speaker 2: Two.

00:12:08
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance that we could see some sort of rejuvenated career from Hopkins if he shifts a little bit more to the slot. But I don't think I can sit here and say that he's some obvious target in any fantasy format, especially given the suspension, So I'm not overly optimistic. The snash Christens from at Bauer cords it says I plan to overdraft DeVante Adams because of the example of Stafford and Cup last year, heard reports of them hitting it off. Knew I should draft Cup, but didn't. Adams is arguably the best NFL wide receiver and by all accounts, went to Las Vegas just to reunite with Carr. Won't he get two hundred targets?

00:12:45
Speaker 2: Am I wrong? This?

00:12:46
Speaker 1: This is classic confirmation bias. This is from Wikipedia, but confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. You remember that Stafford and Cup had that connection, and you see the result of Cup having one of the best wide receiver seasons of all time. But what about all the other connections that didn't result in that. You think Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup are the only wide receiver and quarterback connection to get breakfast together. This isn't me telling you to draft or avoid DeVante Adams. This is me talking about process. Of course, DeVante Adams can go nuts this year. He's DeVante Adams. It's why people were taking him in the first round.

00:13:27
Speaker 2: But I wouldn't.

00:13:28
Speaker 1: Simply use the rapport with Derek Carr as the reason to draft DeVante Adams and two hundred targets is quite lofty. Maybe you were exaggerating in this question, but Darren Waller is a very good tight end. He's a good red zone threat hunter. Renfro is a really good slock guy. There's more competition for Adams in this offense than what he saw in Green Bays, though I wouldn't be surprised if it's a little bit more pass heavy. I personally don't expect Adams to do what he did in Green Bay with the Raiders and Derek Carr. The relationship with Carr is great, but there's more than just that to worry about. This last question from Patreon, it's from Reed. It says you give so much to the patrons, the fantasy football community, and even Rando's emailing you I used to be one of them that I was wondering if you wanted to use your platform to let us know about your philanthropic endeavors and if there's an organization that you would like to spotlight that we could support.

00:14:21
Speaker 2: Yes, I wanted to.

00:14:22
Speaker 1: End on this question because I think it's an awesome one and I really should shout out these types of organizations more. But I tried to give to organizations that help children. It's just something that's really important to me, and No Kid Hungry is my go to. I actually give all profits that are made from the East Coast Dad's brand to No Kid Hungry. So if any of you are interested in East Coast Dads hoodies, t shirts, whatever, you can go check out East Coast Dads dot com and whatever I make on your sale, whatever profit I make, it goes to No Kid Hungry. I really appreciate this question, though. I think it's important to give these organizations a shout on this show as much as I can.

00:14:58
Speaker 2: But that's it for today's show.

00:14:59
Speaker 1: Thanks to all of you for the If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching forward pretty much anywhere podcast can be found and don't for it to follow me on Twitter at late round qb OH. And also I went on The Football Analytics Show with my friend and trusted analyst Ed Fang this past week where I was able to get a little bit more philosophical about things. I think you guys would dig it, So check that out. Search for The Football Analytics Show wherever you get your podcasts, but also don't forget to check out Lateround dot com, maybe the Draft Guide, maybe the Patreon, maybe the free newsletter. Just check it all out Lateround dot com. Take care and have a great weekend everyone. I'll talk to you next week.