2025 NFL Week 14 Late and Primetime Games Preview with Bill Barnwell

00:00:04
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good day night doubleheader. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio talking to my friend for the second time today. Yes, you read him at ESPN, you listen to his podcast, Bill Barnwell Show, and he's been maybe the defining NFL writer of his generation. I'll say it. I did his podcast earlier in the day. Everyone check that out. And you're here to join me Bill to talk a really good five pack of games.

00:00:36
Speaker 2: Welcome to the show.

00:00:38
Speaker 3: Thank you, Greg. What an intro. I think of myself as the defining writer NFL writer, at least of my own household.

00:00:48
Speaker 1: No, I'm trying to think who else it would be.

00:00:51
Speaker 2: This is a podcast for another date.

00:00:53
Speaker 1: Like Greg, Bishop is a sneaky one in the mix, you know, I'm Connor.

00:00:58
Speaker 2: Connor Or is great.

00:01:00
Speaker 3: But I'm saying, yeah, I'm not.

00:01:04
Speaker 1: I'm not really right anymore. But we're not going to talk about that. We are going to talk about doubleheaders. So the Bears and the Packers, they're playing twice over the next eighteen days, or at least, you know, after Sunday, they're gonna have a Thursday night game to cap this like two for and we're going to talk also later about the Monday night game, the Houston Kansas City, the Sunday night game. It's gonna be great, But I think we have to start with this Packers game. Packers are favored by six and a half. It's the Kevin Burkhart Tom Brady game in the afternoon, and the Bears continue to ascend in terms of the quality of the opponent. Yes, I'm putting the Packers over the Eagles at this point, and ascend in terms of the importance of the game. What concerns you because that's a pretty big number the Packers are favored by in a game where you know, the Bears are the number one seed in the NFC. If the Bear let's say, don't even cover that number where it's more than a touchdown in this game, what do you think would go wrong for the Bears for them to lose by two scores.

00:02:09
Speaker 3: Let's say their defense would stink. And unfortunately, Greg, we talked about this as we were taping my show earlier. The Bears defense might stink. It might actually be a bad defense. So stat I would refer to here is points allowed per drive on drives that do not end in fumble recoveries or interceptions. Basically, what do you do when you don't force a turnover. The Bears are twenty ninth in the NFL in points allowed per drive by that metric, so basically their defense is turnover or bust. And thankfully, they have the highest turnover rate in football, second highest rate of any team over the last ten seasons. So they force a lot of turnovers, which is very good. The problem is they are playing a Packers team which has the fewest giveaways of any offense in football this year, just seven turnovers this entire season for the Packers' offense. Now, admittedly, when they have turned the ball over, it has been at disastrous times, probably costs them a game against the Browns earlier this season. Jordan Love, he's known for putting the ball in danger in moments where you don't typically want the ball to be in danger. But this Packers team protects the football really well, and to me, that is kind of the only way the Bears have played defense well this season. Now they are getting back Jilan Johnson who came back last week. Kyler Gordon is back, you might be able to make the case that they are a more complete defense perhaps than they were earlier this season, But I just don't think that's a great matchup for what the Bears want to do on the defensive side of the football.

00:03:44
Speaker 1: No, I agree, and I want to see if the Packers can kind of continue the Christian Watson led evolution of this passing attack. And I do think their size, like and Dad Tavian Wicks, and at some point obviously Jayden Reied isn't adding sites to the mix, but Hill add a certain sort of dynamism. But can this offensive passing attack get reliable because the numbers would tell you Jordan Love has been reliable this year, but the eye test and just the quarters at a time has at a time where this offense just goes away is not baked into those numbers, And so I do want to see that. The thing I'd be most worried about, and you got to it, was the pass rush for the Bears is probably the biggest weakness I think on their entire fifty three man roster, and Jordan Love, while protected this year, has easily the best numbers in the NFL at any quarterback, like everyone thinks of Jared Goff as the ultimate pressure non pressure quarterback split right now. Even though you have the image of Jordan Love making some good plays like while backing up, he actually has the biggest splits of anyone, under pressure or not. And I don't think the Bears are to apply a lot of pressure in this game.

00:05:02
Speaker 3: I don't think so either. I mean, the one thing I would say maybe is that this would have been such a good matchup for Tucker Craft against a Bears team that's going to be missing at least one starting linebacker in Tremaine Edmonds, if not too t J. Edwards has come back to practice, which would be a major help for the Bears. But you do want to throw on their linebackers, want to throw in the middle of the field on them, and we'll see if Luke Musgrave can be that guy. Josh Jacobs of course can catch the football, though he's had kind of a rough season for the Packers. But you know, you flip it, Greg and you mentioned that the weakest spot on the Bears lineup is their pass rush. The only other position that comes to mind for me is left tackle, where the Bears are now on their third left tackle of the season and the Packers have a pretty good pass rusher who might be able to cause Caleb Williams some trouble in this game.

00:05:52
Speaker 1: I thought you were going to go The biggest weakness is like their passing game, which is more general or get real spicy and say their quarterback or something. Because we hadn't hit on NFL Daily the comment by Ben Johnson that they're winning in spite of their passing game, which the next day because he knew that got a lot of run in Chicago and nationally, he pointed out how happy he is with Caleb Williams, that it wasn't about Caleb Williams and that like he's making good decisions, which I think, for the most part is true. The decision making has been good. He is last in the league Caleb Williams in completion percentage over expected. That matches the eye test that the ball just isn't going where he wants it to go enough. What is your level of concern against this Packers' defense throwing the ball because I will get to the run game. I think the Bears will be able to run the ball in this game, but you're gonna need Caleb Williams to make some play. Do you agree with Ben Johnson's assessment.

00:06:51
Speaker 3: Yes, and no. I'm probably a little more pessimistic maybe than Ben Johnson is about I do think he's making the right decision of fair amount, but I think he's making the safer decision a fair amount of the time. Especially early in the year, even when they were on Monday Night Football, you saw trade and pointing out, hey, like this is the time to take a shot, Like you're getting not going to lean on this over and over again, but you're getting quarters. You a deep post, that's where the ball should.

00:07:15
Speaker 2: Be going, and.

00:07:18
Speaker 3: You know there's something wrong with taking those checkdown He's taking the underneath thirst necessarily. Obviously a short completion is better than a sack, but you're only going to get so many chances per game for those explosives. And the reality is, unfortunately, like you said, Caleb Williams is missing enough of his throws that they're going to need those explosives not only in the run game, but also in the past game to sort of make Hay Against the Packers, he has a twenty two point one percent off target rate. That's the time with Michael Pennix basically for the worst in football. But when he gets pressured. Now everyone is going to put a higher off target rate up when they get pressured. His off target rate when he's pressured is thirty seven point eight percent. The only player in the NFL who has a worse off target right when Houston pressure is Aaron Rodgers, who is actively trying to avoid getting hit at all costs. So my concern is really more game flow than Caleb William's talent. Like if there's a scenario where the Bears got up fourteen to nothing in this game early, and the Packers are one dimensional and the Bears to run the football, and Caleb's throwing off a play action, He's throwing off boots. He's not throwing in third and long while he's trailing the entire game. That's gonna be fine. I think they will have opportunities to throw the football. Caleb is a talented player. He's made some really impressive throws this year, and he's gonna be in control. But if the Bears do get behind early, they have to abandon or at least sort of not you wias hefling on the run as I normally would, Caleb's dropping back on second down on third down there and second and long third and long a ton. That is the sort of situation where I feel like the pass rush can ruin the game for the Bears, especially with Micah Parsons against their tackles.

00:08:59
Speaker 1: It sounds like we're both a little skeptical that the Bears can pull this off. I'm a I'm a fan of Bill you know, he he does it all in that little jag right there, you referred to a big internet you know, storm over someone doubting the great Mina chimes our friend about.

00:09:23
Speaker 2: But yeah, it is stupid attacking.

00:09:26
Speaker 1: You know, quarters coverage with deep ball, you pivoted naturally earlier to the left tackle position.

00:09:32
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, you could just put coach in your Twitter handle. No one checks it. No one's like, oh, no, one verifies whether you're a coach or not.

00:09:40
Speaker 2: That's a great point.

00:09:41
Speaker 1: And you also know, you know, got a nice dig at Aaron Rodgers, which lets me do a stat that I forgot to do on the first part of the show, which that he has completed exactly one pass under pressure in the last three games combined, which is just every All right, we have to move on from this game, but I cannot wait to watch it.

00:09:57
Speaker 2: Jordan Rodriegh.

00:09:58
Speaker 1: We we let a different person pick which game is the number one draft pick of what game they're going to watch, and you know, quote unquote cover on our show every week, and she had the number one pick this week. I think she made the right choice with the Packers and the Bears. That would have been my pick as well. But I am very excited to attend at SOFI Stadium my first game this season there, at least since the barn Burner Chargers Saints preseason game Chargers Eagles. The Eagles are favored by three. Of course, it's your colleagues. I know you're tight with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Maybe that line is baking in justin Herbert's wrist injury, but you don't hang with with Joe did just Joe fucking Troy Akeven know who you are?

00:10:42
Speaker 2: Do you think.

00:10:45
Speaker 3: That's a good answer to that. If I say yes, I'm bragging and if I say no, I'm being honest, And it's a little sad, So let's just leave it to a mystery.

00:10:53
Speaker 2: I think humbole no is better.

00:10:56
Speaker 1: Unfortunately, it's almost a shot at them because if they really know ball, you know, they would know. I bet Troy Aikman does. I don't know about Joe buff That's that's actually my take him.

00:11:05
Speaker 3: I I don't think.

00:11:08
Speaker 1: No, I think Troida, I think I think that line is baking in Herbert playing or probably playing. So, yeah, he's dated, he's day to day. The reports from Dan Graziano ESPN is like, you know they're gonna take it, and he's very hopeful.

00:11:24
Speaker 2: He thinks he can do it.

00:11:25
Speaker 1: I just watched him play an entire game with a broken left hand and he held the hand away from him. Watching that on replay was incredible because he was literally holding it up. Wally was getting sacked on the other side of his body. So if he can do that, he's playing in this freaking game. He's a badass. And here's one thing I didn't get to on your show bill because we didn't talk Chargers. You know, for for all the talk over the years about Herbert, you know they're doing him dirty. They don't give him enough weapons, you know, they're not supporting him. I like where this defense is at. Obviously a good defense, it's healthier, helps out a quarterback. We got the offensive line problems, we know, but they brought Jamari Sawyer at left tackle last week might have stabilized things a little bit. You're giving up some run blocking to get the pass blocking might have stabilized things a little bit. Trey Pipkins' is back, and this group of weapons is great. Like they have five they have four guys over five hundred yards right now receiving, including Aronde Gatston who's a Rookie of the Year candidate, and Kimani Videl is looking great in the backfield. And we might get Amri in Himton like he's got a lot to work with. It's Herbert's year. I think he can do this. I think he can get this win.

00:12:35
Speaker 3: He's got one hand though, yeah, and all the other stuff, but he has one hand. He has a hand in a Nintendo Power glove and he has one hand to use. Now you can win with one hand. We saw him play well last week with one or play well enough with one hand. I guess the place I would start with this, Greg is knowing your quarterback is compromise maybe or at least limited the very least. And given that we just saw the Eagles get run over by the Chicago Bears last week, do you think the Chargers whether it's Monty Vidal or like you said, perhaps they were returning Omerian Hampton. Do you think they try to lean super heavy into the run and just try to win the Greg Roman way and just go super run first, the way he might have a few years ago in San Francisco or in Baltimore or then I guess another question is do you think they can do that? If that's their game plan and philosophy heading into the game.

00:13:30
Speaker 2: I think they will try.

00:13:31
Speaker 1: Yes, I have my doubts whether they can. I think Vidals like played better than I ever would have expected. I think he's gonna have a question good career, and if you add Hampton to the mix, that's a great group. But even last week against the Raiders, to me, it was more about him breaking tackles than it was about the blocking the Eagles if you're going to beat them defensively, and I'm not I'm not selling all my Eagles defensive stock because of that one game or even the last two games. Like I do think it's probably better done on the ground. I do have my doubts of this Chargers offensive line protecting for four quarters against this Eagle's pass rush. Even if I think they're like upgraded maybe from where they were three weeks ago, where it was like, really just destitute.

00:14:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean saw your play left tackle in the past. He did a reasonable job. I was sort of surprised they did not go back to that earlier. I mean they were playing Trevor Penny at left tackle before they gave Salier a shot, which never really made sense to me. I do agree that it's going to be tougher for them to succeed on the run. The Bears game was a lot of zone runs against the Eagles. They are the second best team in football by EPA per play on zone runs. The Chargers are sixteenth in EPA pri play on those zone runs. And I would flip it and think about what Vic Fangio does really well, and it's disguised as coverages. I mean, pre post stop. He wants to spin his safeties. He wants to even post snap. He wants to mask what his safeties when his coverage defenders were act doing. He wants to give the quarterback as little info as possible. And that's been a difference maker for Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense. They are He's fifth in the NFL in total qbr are sat over at ESPN. When he faces disguised coverages this year, he's twenty first, well or sorry when he does not face the Skuy's coverages, fifth twenty first when the coverages are disguised, and so he'll put the ball in danger, put the ball on a tight window. I do think I'm a little concerned about that. But no, the Chargers are working progress on the offensive line. But this Eagles defense, you know, the key pieces are still there, but they're still figuring out what their best personnel is. I mean, John Campbell, who was a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate earlier this year, basically been benched for n Kobe Dean. He hasn't played at all, even played a defensive step at all last week, even when they were getting run over on the ground. They're integrating Jalen Phillips. Michael Carter was in the lineup as a slot cornerback and then kind of fell out of favor. We saw more Dori Jackson from here and there. It just sort of feels like, even though we're two thirds of the way into the year, the Eagles are still trying to find what their best personnel groupings are what they should be doing against you know, bigger packages, what they should be doing in obvious passing spots, And it feels like there's always at least one or two spots in the lineup teams can attack. And so for the Chargers, I just think it's, you know, can they find Dori Jackson all that often? Can they find the Kobe didan coverage all that often? Can they find those spots that they can take advantage of before they end up trailing in this game?

00:16:27
Speaker 2: Yeah?

00:16:27
Speaker 1: Read Blanken schip is another one that Ali Connolly on our recap show of those of the Black Friday Game pointed out everyone should check out. By the way, Ali and I are back, the Saturday Siko Show is coming back for its second episode.

00:16:40
Speaker 3: On SAD There's Atlantic podcast.

00:16:42
Speaker 2: It is.

00:16:43
Speaker 1: It is quite exciting there by the way a ball possession offense and I do want to flip and talk about the other side, but is interesting when you think about the Bears and what they did, maybe they can do what the Bears did but in a different way. The Chargers are second in the NFL. I was surprised to see that in place for drive. So a lot of that is justin Herbert making magic on third down frankly, but yeah, Like, by the way, if he goes and has an awesome game, and I'm leaving this open for a lot of quarterbacks out there, Dak is in that mix, Like if he has an awesome game on Monday Night, you'll start hearing, Hey, why not justin Herbert for MVP. I don't think it's that crazy in a year where there's not like totally obvious guys.

00:17:24
Speaker 2: Okay.

00:17:24
Speaker 1: On the other side, Philadelphia leads the league in three and outs, and this is where you know you can see the path for the Chargers winning because you don't think that they'll need as many points. Their defense is healthier right now than it's been all seasons, certainly at edge, but they also have Elijah Molden, some key guys up front, Tier Tart and Deshaun hand who have had injuries their back one of their best quarterbacks are he still is back, so they're just healthier. And one thing I saw last week against the Raiders, they were a lot more I know it was the Raiders, but they were more creative, doing kind of the Mike McDonald type of stuff, and like Blitze just getting a little more creative, which I think could work against this Eagles offense.

00:18:07
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, you know, the Eagles are a different offense without Lane Johnson. We've known that for a decade. More than a decade at this point. They are a different team. When Lane Johnson is not on the field, he is not going to play in this game. And this is not an offense that is the most how can I put this nicely extensive? Good goodness? Maybe, and I share to put it as well or realistic way to put it. It's sloppy, it's inconsistent, it's exploitable, and I mean the Eagles are a team that win by dominating with their personnel. They are not a team that's winning with their scheme, and so that could be limited pass protection groupings. That could mean things you can exploit with your blitzes, with your certain pressures. To your point, there's a lot of ways I think you beat the Eagles that are beyond just simply our guys are better than your guys, because the Eagles have incredible personnel, especially when everyone is helped, which is obviously not the case right now. But I think for the Chargers, the thing you're hoping to have this be is sort of the opposite of what Simon of what you said about the Chargers on the ball. Can you force the Eagles to drive down the field with six or seven first downs? Can you take away the explosives, which they have no explosives in the run game right now. They have plenty of explosives in the passing game. Doante Smithy had some big games and Jake Brown has had some big catches even over the past couple of weeks. If you can take stuff away over the top and just forced gale, it hurts forced s Tayklon Barkley, force the offensive line, force the receivers to not drop passes, to not commit penalties, to not allow sacks, not allow pressures, just to be a grinded out offense. They're gonna make mistakes. They just have not been consistent enough to pull that off. And I trust that Jesse Mincher and the Chargers have that kind of big picture ability and vision. I do think they can execute that and do that throughout sixty minutes of a football game.

00:19:53
Speaker 1: They've been really versatile this year. They've also been very streaky. They started the year as one of the best defensively. That about a month where they were one of the worst defensive league. Now they're trending back towards being one of the best. But one thing I like that that you mentioned and that they can do is I think change it up week to week and really build a game plan.

00:20:12
Speaker 2: Right now.

00:20:12
Speaker 1: I think the veterans on this team, they've been in this system for a while, and like I said, they're healthier. If it's not obvious enough, I like the charges. Can I ask you a question, yes, please very quickly.

00:20:23
Speaker 3: So if you pull Eagles fans, I would say about ninety percent of them think that this is the twenty twenty three collapse happening again. Yeah, how confident are you that this is the twenty twenty three collapse happening again to the Eagles?

00:20:38
Speaker 2: Not confident. I don't think it's going to be that bad that that was crazy.

00:20:43
Speaker 3: It's going to be a little, yeah.

00:20:45
Speaker 4: I do.

00:20:45
Speaker 1: I think they'll find a way to beat the Raiders and the Commanders a couple of times. Maybe they lose one Commander's game, and like if they lose a playoff game one and done, they're competitive. That was one of the worst teams in the NFL by the end of the season. It was so bad I've almost I can't remember another situation like that where a team turned into one of the worst teams in the NFL for the last month of the season and like everyone just assumed they were going to get blown out in the playoffs, and then they did, and it was a team that had a Super Bowl predigree.

00:21:11
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be like that.

00:21:12
Speaker 1: Like, I think they'll probably lose in more heartbreaking fashion in these games.

00:21:16
Speaker 2: If they're going to.

00:21:17
Speaker 3: Lose, yeah, I mean I just last week they missed an extra point that would have tied the game. They're in position in the red zone of score Jalen Hurts fumbles on the tush push the week before, they go up twenty one to nothing on the Cowboys, their position to get in the red zone and right again and a penalty gets the fun things catch called back and then they fumble on the next play. Like there's been a fair amount of bad luck and the defense is still playing well enough. I know they didn't play great against the rum last week, but they have been good enough that I'm not anticipating a Matt Patricia led collapse here down the stretch, So they might be not as good maybe as they looked earlier this year. But I don't think they're going to have a collapse the way they did in twenty twenty.

00:21:53
Speaker 1: And keep an eye on Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be surprised if he is calling the plays this week. I know they're not going to announce it or anything, but whether he's going to have a bigger hand. He's returning to the place where he cut his teeth. You know they have moved up up the highway from San Diego to hear he didn't coach in so far.

00:22:11
Speaker 3: He doesn't go to the wrong stadium.

00:22:12
Speaker 2: Yes, but he was a charger for a long time.

00:22:14
Speaker 1: It's time for the Sunday Drive presented by Toyota. Let's go places Texans in Kansas City. Chiefs are favored by three and a half. It's the NBC A team Rico Collinsworth no more.

00:22:28
Speaker 3: Do you know Chris Collinsworth?

00:22:29
Speaker 2: Okay, you do, personally, We got that checked out. Okay.

00:22:33
Speaker 3: I've had a conversation or two with him. I did a panel with him at a conference once.

00:22:37
Speaker 1: I have never had a conversation with him, but he once pre taped different segments for a Fantasy Show. It was called The Fantasy Fix with Me and Tiffany Simon's on nbcsports dot com about about eighteen years ago, where he pre taped the segment kind of like Michael Jordan is doing with Mike Rico, where he did it all in one day and he had to just sit there for twenty straight segments and ask us a question, Hey.

00:23:04
Speaker 2: Greg and Tiffany, who do you think is gonna? Okay? That was a bad Chris was not bad. That was good.

00:23:11
Speaker 3: That was so much better than I could have done.

00:23:14
Speaker 1: Things should start for the Packers, Sam con Gotto or I'm on Green or is like something like that. I just love when that these two, these two teams are playing each other right now is awesome because the the Chiefs are just holding on for dear life and the Texans are reborn. And yet whoever lose this game is in a tough spot. Including the text, So what what what?

00:23:39
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:23:39
Speaker 2: Fascinates you most from this game?

00:23:41
Speaker 3: Oh? Greg, fascinating me, terrifying me, scaring me. The Chiefs offensive line versus Will Anderson and Zaneil Hunter. So according to the most recent reports, as we tape this on Wednesday afternoon, here on the east, Josh Simmons has a dislocated risk, probably not gonna play.

00:24:05
Speaker 1: I think he's going to IRS. The word is he's going to IR. Is the expectation.

00:24:09
Speaker 2: Yep.

00:24:09
Speaker 3: Typically you don't play with disslocated risk. I feel confident on that one. Trey Smith Juwan Taylor both questionable. It sounds like maybe the wrong side of questionable for this game. Greg That means Jalen Moore according to Chi Speed reporters, at right tackle, Mike Collendo at right guard. And Yes, after spending the entire offseason trying to avoid this happening, the Chiefs are expecting the wan Ya Morris experience to happen again at left tackle against the scariest one to two punch of edge rushers in all of football, in Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. It's a absolute nightmare for the Kansas City Chiefs to have this happen against this particular opponent.

00:24:57
Speaker 2: That's so well said and true, and I'm so.

00:25:01
Speaker 1: Spooked by the Chiefs that this all when you say these things, it all just seems to be setting up well.

00:25:07
Speaker 3: Well.

00:25:07
Speaker 1: Of course, then Andy Reid's gonna come up with this great game plan and we're gonna be talking Sunday night about how did they overcome all of this?

00:25:13
Speaker 2: But you know how many times I've thought that this season and then it but it hasn't happened. Like how many times I've thought.

00:25:19
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, this is the moment where you know, when it's not looking great, actually they're gonna do this, and they don't. And I'll ask you this, like, do you think Andy Reid's missing something here? Does he need a little inspiration? It's almost like they've just run out of ideas or something. Maybe having so many limitations this week, they'll somehow come up with something crazy, like the Andy Reid of old. I feel like we haven't been seeing that, even though we've been seeing prime Patrick Mahomes. I don't know if we've been seeing prime Andy Reid.

00:25:51
Speaker 3: Greg I'll tell you what Andy Reid just watched the show. I will tell Andy Reid, Wow, what he needs to do to win this game. He doesn't need Matt Nagey, doesn't need a big staff out. Keep it very simple for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Run the damn ball and run it from under center, and don't do your shotgun runs, don't do your RPOs. Get underneath center and run the damn ball. The Chiefs are the second best offense in football by EPA per play on under center designed rushes, and the Texans greg are twenty six in EPA per play on under center design rushes. I don't think there's anything they can do to stop those edge rushers. We saw the Super Bowl last year, right like they tried to chip with Kelsey. They tried to get it, you know, tried to help out on their best player in Jalen Carter and then have one on ones elsewhere. It didn't work. Kelsey's on a good chipper. They had fewer guys going out into routes. There wasn't anybody getting open. And the Eagles, I'm sure the Chiefs were still losing enough of their one on ones to the Eagles that Mahomes was still getting sacked even though at some points they were max protecting or keeping seven in protection. I don't think you want to lean head into the pass in this game. I think you want to try to run the football. You want to try to give your offensive linment as much help as possible. You want to avoid third and long as much as possible. And I don't know if that's going to work because this is an inferior version of the Chiefs offensive line than the one they've had at their best earlier this year. But especially if you can get Trey Smith in the lineup, I think you have to give it a shot, just because to me, that's the that is the most plausible way you can have a sustainable and successful offense against this Texans.

00:27:29
Speaker 1: Steam Barnwell becoming a run the damn ball guy in his dotage. You know who would have thunk it? Forget Rams Panthers. Wow, that's the biggest upset.

00:27:38
Speaker 2: Of the year.

00:27:39
Speaker 3: I think.

00:27:41
Speaker 1: I think Pacheco looked better last week than he did early in the season. He hasn't looked great for a couple of seasons, I thought a couple of years. Just to my eye, he had a little more juice last week in limited snaps. They still were using cream out, so he would be the guy if you can get kind of the old version of Pacheco back on the flip side, like can can Houston's offense continue to kind of catch a groove of normality.

00:28:10
Speaker 2: Now they're mixing in.

00:28:12
Speaker 1: These dumb plays where they mess up in short yardage or they have illegal formations or they're handing it off to the tight end. There's still some real Texany stuff in there. But whether it was Davis Mills or CJ. Stroud last week, especially in the second half, they have been pretty cohesive as just like a normal looking offense, especially passing the ball, and they're getting more out of Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz, which I think is really important to have kind of an array of options for CJ. Stroud to go to. We know Nico Collins is a badass. He'll probably match up on Trent McDuffie for a lot of this game. It's a pretty ordinary defense for the Chiefs, and so I do kind of feel like the Texans are coming into their own as just a normal offense.

00:28:59
Speaker 2: Do you think they can keep that going?

00:29:02
Speaker 3: I like, what do you say mix in dumb plays? Like there's a section of the play sheet that just has dumb plays do not call and Nick Kelly cannot resist the urge to call that play in the wrong It's.

00:29:13
Speaker 2: Like poorly executed plays, just like in that Colts game.

00:29:16
Speaker 1: They could have won by a lot more if they could just pick up a yard in third or fourth and one, so it's not even necessarily to play call. But they they're still not great, is my point. But the rest of the they are moving the ball a little bit.

00:29:28
Speaker 3: They are moving the ball, and so they've been way more efficient on a play by play basis. And there's a stat called success rate, which measures how often you stay on schedule on the offensive side of the ball. They are third in success rate on offense over the last month of the year, even though Skills was playing quarterback for three of those four games. And the way they're doing it, to me is by getting another offensive lineman on the field. They have leaned heavily into the six offensive lineman sets, which number one. Their linemen aren't very good. They're getting an extra one in the field. He just creating a further path for edge rusher to get to the quarterback. It kind of simplifies some of your pass pro because you know, if you're going to full slide, if you're going to try to get one on ones, it's a little easier to have an extra linment on the field so you can handle, you know, some bigger fronts better. They've been running the ball more efficiently. They have had a fifty five percent success rate with six offensive linemen sets over the year course of the year, second best rate in football. And for the Chiefs, I think that's a really big problem because number One, they want to live in nickel anyway, Like they'll play based defense if they have to, but they want to live with five six defensive backs on the field. A lot of the Steve Spagnolo exotic stuff is going to come out of nickel and dime packages, and so by getting into six o line sets, you're basically daring them to match with their base defense. And then you're limiting a lot of what Spags can do with kind of his exotic pressures. And then I think the biggest thing is if you can avoid the third and long. That was I think the biggest problem for the Texans last year. They had six point two snaps per game on third and eight plus and wow with their offensive line, that was a nightmare. I mean, all those third and lungs were disaster. They had fifteen of them in the two games against the Chiefs last year and only converted four of them. And so this year it's down to five per game over the last four It's still not ideal to your point. Still some sloppiness. Run game has not been great. It's being maybe a tiny if better. But if you can avoid those third and lungs, you're getting away from the spags, the spags downs where he can dial up his best stuff. You're getting away from the places where you're going to be blitza ble, where your tackles are going to be one on one. If you can avoid those spots, this offense is going to be fine. And by staying on schedule and having a high success rate, you are avoiding those third and lungs, and so that's going to make this a very tough matchup for the Chiefs. If the Texans can pass the ball well on early downs, even if it's not a big play, even if it's just a three four five yard game, avoiding the negatives, avoiding the penalties of avoiding the sacks, that's how this offense moves forward.

00:31:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is I never count out Steve Beegno to have the right game plan, but it's just an ordinary defense.

00:32:03
Speaker 3: They can I give you one more stack, great please, Chiefs defense this year when they blitz thirty second in the NFL in pressure rate, that is the tough part for me with this Chiefs defense is that their identities the perfect blitz at the right time. And I don't think Steve Spagnolda has forgotten how the blitz. It's just been way less successful when they have blitched. And any defense, if you blitzer, you don't get home, you're in a terrible problem. And so if the Chiefs are not going to get home with their blitzers in this game, and they have had a lot of trouble getting home with their blitzeres this year, I would expect Jayden Higgins, David Hutchinson, Nico Collins, even Dalton Schultz to have a lot of favorable matchups downfield and see Stroud to find those receiving and.

00:32:44
Speaker 1: Just judging on eye tests, like the last month, the Houston offensive line for all the griefs that they've taken been like, yep, it's been pretty normal. I would say it's been like a little below average. Ben Baldwin does this, it's very hard to get met Yeah, where they have. He combines three different offensive line metrics from Sports Info Info solutions in PFF and the ESPN and they were like twentieth and I was like that, that's great, that's normal.

00:33:09
Speaker 2: All right, that's gonna be an awesome game. I think I'm taking the Texans.

00:33:12
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break, and we're gonna be back to wrap up the week fourteen slate That was the Sunday Drive presented by Toyota Let's Go Place. Toyota is all in all season, with another year of Toyota Game Day Giveaways coming up. During this week's Sunday Night game, the Houston Texans versus the Kansas City Chiefs, if the first drive of the second half ends in points or points are scored in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter, one hundred fans will each win one hundred and fifty dollars NFL gift card for this holiday season, just in time to gift or grab the gear you love. Terms and conditions apply. Enter for a chance to win at Toyota Game Day Giveaways dot Com.

00:34:00
Speaker 4: No purchase necessary, void We're prohibited. Ends two eight twenty six. Open to legal residents of the fifty US States and DC eighteen and over. For complete details, how to enter, prizes and official rules, visit Toyota's Game Day Giveaways dot Com.

00:34:16
Speaker 1: Back on NFL Daily as we broke from the Bill Barnwell Show earlier today, he said he had to go to a coffee shop to do some prep. He's a pro, and I could see that prep in this show. This is this is the part of the show. It's got to test you a little more. Broncos heavily favored at Vegas. I feel like we've covered the Raiders too much lately on this show. It's just been so bad. The Broncos are obviously the more interesting side. Could this be a rare okay, bear with me here. A revenge game for bo Nicks and the Broncos, just against how bad they looked against the Raiders last time. Everyone was making fun of them for how terrible they look putting up like two hundred yards of offense against the Raiders. So it's a revenge game against expectations, and it's in the perfect, you know, conditions of Allegiant Stadium.

00:35:08
Speaker 3: Greg. You know, I did go to that coffee shop and I rewatched the Broncos Raiders games and weirdly everyone left, everyone cleared out of the coffee shop because the game was so awful. I think Patrick Graham had a really good game plan against Bonnicks in that first game, contained him in the pocket, didn't let him rush. He didn't have a single scramble. I think his five attention it was Niel downs and sneaks in that game, it was taken away. The first read. Bonnicks was nine of twenty for one hundred and thirteen yards and two picks when he held the ball for over two and a half seconds. It was a lot of basically daring Bonis to be a quarterback. Go through your progressions, work out of the pocket. That's not what Sean Payden wants Bonnicks to do. It's not what Bonnicks wants Bonnicks to do. But the Raiders showed that game plan, and so you would figure if you're going to talk about a guy who's good at it, justin guy who's good at you know, coming up with stuff to counter what you want to do on defense. With a week to watch that game and to look back, I would imagine Sean Payton will be in pretty good shape in terms of what they're game planning for the Raiders in the matchup. So I do think it's a proved game for bow Nicks, and I do think that the Broncos will be better on offense, although a little concerned about the run game without JK Dodam.

00:36:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, they haven't looked as good.

00:36:24
Speaker 1: The Raiders defensive numbers were pretty good coming out of that game, for instance, like over the course of the season they were slightly better than average considering their talent level. Was a good coaching job by Pete Carroll and Patrick Graham on that side of the ball. Since then, it hasn't looked good. There's just not much push. I think Sean Payton in much better conditions, and the conditions were terrible that night. It was freezing, like it's just gonna find too much offense for the Raiders to keep up. Gino looks looks a little shell shocked out there, and watching him against this Broncos team doesn't seem fair. Broncos, like Miles Garrett are going after an NFL record. They have a real chance here, Yeah, to get the NFL team sack record. And you know who's helping out every week when they face another defense and helping their sack numbers. It's Gino Smith and the Raiders. It's just like a walking seven sacks to start the game. It's tough to watch, Like, what do you like when you see this Broncos defense at their best.

00:37:24
Speaker 3: I mean, you didn't even mention that they didn't have Pats or ten. I believe good point the first game for these two teams. So now you're adding the raining defensive player of the year back to a game where it felt like the Raiders could have played for forty quarters and maybe not gotten to twenty one points, which is probably what they needed to win that game. I mean, you're hoping maybe the chip Kelly firing changes some things. I know that there's some reports this week that they were just running the chip Kelly offense all along? Are they running the Carrol offense all along? But I mean they could not in that game reliably get to brock Bauers. The only big catch brock Bauers had was a play where Talanoahfanga tried to jump on underneath rap Basks just went off his instincts, and usually those are good, sometimes they aren't, and this was a play where they weren't. Powers could open for a big game, but he otherwise was completely locked down. They did just not have the ability to get the ball to their really not only their their best receiver, but really their only receiver of any note, right, now they weren't able to run the football. Ashton john Di did not have a good game, And I don't put that on Ashton john Ty put that on on the offensive line and the fact that the Bronco was of one of the best defensive lines in football. But you know, with the with the Raiders, it was like, Okay, you don't have the talent, but you schemed up a good game. With the Broncos, the scheme is good, and they have incredible talent, and they're getting back their best defensive players. So it's just hard for me to imagine this game being significantly different for the Raiders' offense. I would expect a lot of third and long, a lot of facts. I would expect Nick Benito to, you know, try to win the Best Mortal Defensive Player award behind Miles Garrett. But I just don't see a way for the Raiders to dramatically change the way they approach offense in this game.

00:39:04
Speaker 1: And I was gonna say that the Broncos, you know, they've skated by the last three weeks, winning actually four weeks, winning four games by a combined ten points. They have had a couple blowouts this season. They had the Bengals game that was not closed. They took care of the Cowboys pretty easily. I think this is going to be another one. And yeah, like I said, everyone check out Bill's show where we decided whether the Broncos were lucky or good.

00:39:30
Speaker 2: They were a good discussion.

00:39:31
Speaker 1: Let's wrap with the Rams, who are both good and now I don't even think they're lucky. They actually maybe should be better than nine to three if you think about if you think about the way their season started that Eagles game. Certainly the Panthers game last week was a certain sort of you know, losing the turnover battle and not being able to get the ball back. I do think in this matchup against the Cardinals, the Rams are favored by seven and a half. It's Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma on the call that there are some things that the Cardinals can do to bother him, and like, the number one thing I'm probably watching from the Rams side is like, can the pass rush be a little more consistent. Teams have done a good job passing quickly to kind of mitigate the Rams pass rush, and you know, they struggled to get off the field last week. I mean that's of course that's the recipe to do it. But it's a little surprising. I know they don't blitz much, but they're not in the top ten of pressure rate this season. Considering the talent that they have, I kind of want to see their pass rush come fully alive down the stretch, and this would be an opportunity to do so against a team in Jacoby Brissette who holds the ball quite quite a long time.

00:40:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, a lot of the success the Panthers had last week was throwing under two and a half seconds, a lot of quick game, a lot of you know, just trying to find soft spots and zones. Nine of eleven Bryce Young for one twenty two and two touchdowns within two and a half seconds, and the rams are only fifteenth in the NFL. And qbr on throws under two and a half seconds your last. That's usually the kind like the common delineator for quick game versus a more traditional passing attack. And so in the ideal world you would have the ability to make throws throws if you're Jacoby Brissett, that's just not typically how this offense work. They want to be more of a heavy play action team, which is going to be holding the ball, trying to hit more shots downfield. Going to be tougher if Marvin Harrison doesn't play in this game. He's still uncertain. The rest have been very good against tight ends just here. I think they're second in the NFL in qbr on targets to tight ends, and so not just as simple as getting the ball to Trey McBride. I love a little bit of Greg Dortch. I would always wish they'd get a little more Greg Dortsch involved in the offense. But Greg, the big thing that I think really underpinned the Panther's offense last week was running the football, and the Cardinals offense is thirtieth in the NFL this year in apaper play on design runs. That's been the biggest disappointment for this team this season, full stop. Is just they have been a very fun, very aggressive rushing attack over the past couple of years. Whether it was losing their offensive court, losing James Connor, losing Trade Benson, not having the ability to go to three tight end sets with Tim Bryan hurt, all those things probably contributed a little bit, but they just have not been a good designed run team this year and so that was hurting with Kyler Murray that were getting stuck in a lot of third and longs. They've been a little better because Kobe Prissett, I think is better in those drop back passing spots than Kyler is. But against the Rams, that might be the rusely It's like, you know, if you're just if your play action games taken out of the game because you're trailing and because you're you're not running the ball effectively and you're stuck in third and long, that might be what unlocks a really good game from this Rams pass ruck.

00:42:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a tough matchup because of what you just said. Trey Benson, by the way, not at practice. Marvin Harrison not at practice. Harrison as a heel injury. I don't think he's expected to play Benton. It's especially concerning because he came off the activation window and now he's not practicing. For what it's worth, and I don't think it's much in this matchup. John McVay, Jonathan Gannon, a lot of the same players. Was still a pretty good Rams offense last year. They scored twenty three total points in two games. They averaged eleven and a half point also included, you know, maybe the high moment of the Jonathan Gannon era putting up a forty burger on the Rams in like a thirty five point victory early last season, and then they had a struggle fest defensive game later in the year. This Cardinals team is good enough to make you sweat, but then lose their twentieth in DVOA, which is better than you would expect from a three to nine team. They have five point three like estimated win.

00:43:31
Speaker 2: That sounds right. They actually seem like a five and seven team.

00:43:34
Speaker 1: But I always think that really great teams coming off a loss, there is a human element I think where there's like the plexiglass principle. They bounce back generally, and I think they'll play their best and I think they'll do it by running the ball. People don't, I think, realize how just how great they are running the ball. And even last week against Carolina they are getting such good push up front for Quorum and Kyron Williams. So I could see a game this is not a fantasy show bill, but like where where you got like a Bears thing going on where both Korum and kyn Williams go over one hundred yards and it's like thirty one to sixteen, and it's just like a run fest for the Rams.

00:44:14
Speaker 2: That's the time of the type of game you can't lose in the division.

00:44:16
Speaker 1: They cannot lose this game in the division, or else you're actually let in San Francisco to win this division.

00:44:21
Speaker 2: Still they they're four and one in the division, San Francisco.

00:44:25
Speaker 3: I have a question for you and we'll share.

00:44:26
Speaker 2: I guess with that, Yes, you got to go pick up your kid.

00:44:30
Speaker 3: I do any reason to think Matthew Stafford's uh rough game last week fluke, any reason to think it could stick around, any reason to think that the Rams should be a little concerned at all, Just kind of just a bad game.

00:44:44
Speaker 1: Not at all, because a couple were just the type of turnovers that he makes consistently throughout his career. He's aggressive, and it happens he held the ball a little like no, because he played well the rest of the game, Like they averaged almost eight yards for playing that game. So that's a big fat no. Because to me, he's out, he'll have some turnovers. It's kind of been a fluky how few turnovers he's had. But he's probably my m v P right now, if I have to choose, we don't have to.

00:45:12
Speaker 3: In the conversation, we don't have to go.

00:45:15
Speaker 1: Would you give Jonathan Gannon a fourth season?

00:45:17
Speaker 2: By the way, yes, I would.

00:45:19
Speaker 3: The defense is not the problem with this team. The offenses.

00:45:23
Speaker 2: I love it.

00:45:23
Speaker 1: Bill you Uh you said you were gonna prep and uh you did it and we did it, and so everyone uh should check out.

00:45:35
Speaker 2: You know who knows we've got We've got you.

00:45:37
Speaker 1: Maybe we can get uh Joe and Troy uh on a podcast and we could introduce you guys.

00:45:43
Speaker 3: I'm well, I'll pass that up the chain. We'll see, we'll see if see if that's likely to occur.

00:45:50
Speaker 1: I'm seeing this from our great producer here that you know, maybe uh, there was gonna be some combination there. There's an article out here on a podcast of like maybe schefter could be on NFL Network and maybe you know, me and you are now doing it together. We are the synergy. By the way, without even being asked that they're asking for me, you and Mina, we've already been doing it.

00:46:15
Speaker 3: On the trojan horse of NFL Network. It seems like I'm just bringing the pristiality over to cultur City, Los Angeles.

00:46:23
Speaker 1: You made this multi billion dollar merger happen. Thank you, Bill, Go go pick up your lovely child. And that's it for our preview show. We will be back on Thursday with an exciting recap. We've got a banger. It's Cowboys, it's lions that'll be up in the field from Nick Chook and myself and then yes, all the weekend content with our picks and Allie. Check us out on YouTube, and thank you to everyone who sent us their messages for being on your Spotify wrapped.

00:46:54
Speaker 2: We love you.