Beyond the Tax Bill: What's Next for Advocacy?

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- Welcome to the advocacy scoop,
the podcast that takes you

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inside the advocacy work
of the National Association

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of Realtors connecting NAR members

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with their advocates in
Washington for a front row seat

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to the fight for public policy
that strengthens the ability

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of Americans to access property ownership.

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- Hello everyone. Welcome to
the advocacy Scoop podcast.

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It is August in DC

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and I'm here with Shannon McGahn,

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n a's Executive Vice President
and Chief Advocacy Officer.

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And I'm Patrick Newton.

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And we have signed once in a
Generation tax Reform into law,

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and we have been concentrating
on that for so long.

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Shannon, I have to ask
the question, what's next?

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- What do we do with our lives
now, Patrick? I don't know.

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Is it It's not done.

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I know they've got plenty more work to do.

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- I mean, we have a floor of
tax policy analysts down there

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that are a little bit nervous

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'cause they're feeling,

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they're feeling like
they're, their time is up

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- A floor.

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We have evanier. Hey, we got Matt.

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Oh, that's right. And Matt Strauss, you

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- The tax bros. Remember

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- They're the tax bros.

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That's right. Trademark pending.

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That's, I forgot about that.

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- Yeah, so we we're,
this episode we're trying

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to take a forward look at N NA's advocacy.

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You know, it's August,
Congress is in recess.

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You know, we've passed the
big piece of legislation

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for the new presidential term.

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It was a big moment. And, and,

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and, you know, speaking
of the bill, we, we,

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we came out very well
in that we, you know,

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the last episode we, we, we
went into it more detail,

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but overall we're very happy,

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- Very happy, secured a lot
of priorities in this bill,

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but the work is not done.

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There's plenty more to continue.

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- That's right. We got some of our,

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our top priorities in the bill.

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Just 50,000 foot, you know, Shannon,

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like we're minus again, how we came out.

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- We secured our top five tax priorities.

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That includes 1 99 A,

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the qualified business income deduction

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that was made permanent and increased.

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It also provides meaningful
tax release to more than 90%

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of NAR members who are
independent contractors

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or small business owners.

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This also includes state and
local tax deduction relief.

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It included individual tax rates that are

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lowering the individual
rates, making those permanent

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and indexing them for
inflation, which is a huge move.

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Also backed by 86% of voters according

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to our national survey.

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That's right. Back in April.

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This also included the
keeping the mortgage interest

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deduction at the $750,000
level and making it permanent.

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So we don't have to keep going back

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and forth on changes to MID.

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And then it also protected
things like business salt

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and 10 31 like kind exchange.

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So we often talk about the things

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that don't make it in the bill are just

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as if not more important than the things

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that do make it into these bills.

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So this protects section
10 31 like kind exchange,

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which was also made
permanent back in 2017.

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And it also leaves the
business salt deductions intact

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for most real estate professionals.

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- So those were our big ones.

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We also had a lot of sweeteners, you know,

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we had enhancements to the
low income housing tax credit

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and opportunity zones gotta

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refresh and lots of other things.

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We have tons of resources on our website

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and we sort of went into
it during our last episode.

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But my question to you is,

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I I keep hearing you
use this word permanent,

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which in Washington speak is a big deal

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because so many things when
they're passed into law,

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they have budgetary impacts

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and so they have, you know,
sunsets and expirations

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and things, but a lot of
this bill was permanent.

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So my, my question is, is you know,

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in 2017 when they passed tax reform,

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the first Trump administration, all

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of this expired in eight-ish or so years.

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That's why we're, we were, we
were up here again doing it.

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So we're not gonna be back
here eight years from now doing

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this again in the same way.

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- Hopefully not. And so
there's no such thing

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as absolute permanence.

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It's kind of like dating
versus getting married here.

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There is a way to know that marriage,

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but it's a lot messier when
something is made permanent.

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So we don't have to just assume
that there's an end date.

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So the things that were in here

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that made permanent
were pretty major wins.

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Like the lowered tax rates, the
expanded standard deduction,

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restoration of immediate
expensing for research

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and development, 100% bonus depreciation,

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the $750,000 cap on the
mortgage interest deduction,

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the qualified business income
deduction, section 1 99 A

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that we mentioned, and the estate

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and gift tax exemption all made permanent.

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- So we don't have to revisit
that. That is that's awesome.

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I mean that's again,

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- It's a big deal.

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- Yeah, it's a big deal. There
were a few things in there

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that were temporary provisions,
but nothing like last time.

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- Right. And the temporary
ones are things like expensing

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for some factory structures that tip

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and overtime tax exemption,
no tax on tips that is,

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that's not permanent, but it is in there.

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Also the $1,000 startup MAGA accounts,

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Trump accounts baby bonds,
it goes by many names,

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- Which we really got into
last month talking about that.

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- But have you opened up one yet?

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- Have we? I have not. Although I'm,

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- Can my dog get one?

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- See, there you go. Why
can't we get pet accounts?

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- I mean,
- For, they cost more than children.

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- They, they afford, they
need to afford dog houses too.

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Yeah. So, so this only
applies to kids born

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between 2025 and 2028.

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But I think the, the concept of this is

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that it will become politically popular

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and what's politically
popular becomes permanent.

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- Exactly. You, you got into
that last month they did that.

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You remember the first, the
first tax bill in tax cut

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and Jobs act in 2017.

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They made the individual
tax rates temporary,

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but they made corporate rates permanent

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because they knew when
this day came, you know,

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there's no way Congress was
gonna let individual rates snap

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back and, and taxes go
up on all Americans.

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So, so they, they that was,

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there was some strategery to quote

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- Strategery.

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That's one of my favorite words.

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- Okay, so, so we, we've
emphasized the, the permanence

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of this bill, so that's a good thing.

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But tell me, Shannon, when are,

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when are the average NAR member

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and the average American,
when are they gonna feel the

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effects of this bill?

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- Oh, that, that's a great question.

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I think it, part of this
bill was designed so

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that you wouldn't feel
the effects on it so

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that there wouldn't be
that huge tax increase

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that would happen after
years of lower tax rates

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and expanded standard deduction.

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So, so a lot of this will be less obvious

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because it just kind of
keeps things in place

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that's not going to say there
won't be noticeable changes.

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There will be, especially when
you're looking at things like

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on that business side,
that immediate expensing

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for research and development.

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All the folks I talk to that's,

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I don't have a small business,
I'm not in that line of work,

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but apparently that is a big deal

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and something that really
hits our bottom line.

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So where we're looking for
those larger potential changes

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that will take time, but
we wanna start seeing

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that uptick soon are areas
like an opportunity zone

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incentives, low income
housing tax credit incentives.

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We have long said inventory is
the number one problem facing

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the real estate market and
facing housing or, and,

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and creating less affordable
and less available housing.

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And so wherever we can
see that these types

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of programs are now
permanent and people can plan

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and get their accountants
and financial advisors

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and folks to determine,
yes, we do wanna buy

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that attractive land and we
want do wanna do some more

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land use reforms and zoning studies

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and find out can we build here?

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That's the kind of
stuff that we're looking

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to see happen soon.

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And then really snowball into
more housing development.

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- Okay. Well, you know, we
talk about the bill, you know,

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being signed into law is,
is is the end of the process

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for Congress, but it's the
beginning of the process

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for treasury and the IRS

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because there is a regulatory side

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to implementing a law this big.

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So without putting us to sleep,

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tell us a little bit about that.

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- Oh, as a former treasury
department official,

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there is nothing but excitement going

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on over at that building.

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So yes,

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whenever a big tax bill is
enacted, treasury is consulted.

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You have some of the
absolute best tax writers

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and minds in in the country

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who are working in that building.

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And then it's their job

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after the bill goes into effect
to take a close look at it

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and determine what are
those practical questions

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and problems that need to be addressed.

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Like the opportunity zones,
like things like determining,

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you know, their location, how
that, how that is working out.

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So those were huge issues
that came up in 2017

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and I was working there during that time

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and then seeing just how all of

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that gets implemented in 2018 and

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and going forward, that
process starts yesterday.

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- Yeah. And and the good
thing, the good news is

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that in 2017 it was a little bit messier,

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but they're not expecting
the regulatory implementation

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to be quite as, as cumbersome this go

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around. And why is that?

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- Well, and then what, because
many of these are extensions

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and so they already
have the, the parameters

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of what they're working on.

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And because these are also made permanent.

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If they are, if they're
well designed in law

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and they don't need a
huge regulatory impact,

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then it won't take as long
to put that into effect.

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But that's also where our
advocacy team comes into play.

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We don't just go and
advocate for the language

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that's in legislation and say,
okay, our job here is done.

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We need to make sure it's working

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and that it's working for NAR members.

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That it's working for
your, the, your customers

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and the real estate economy.

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And so that's through letter
writing, rulemaking going in

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and sharing the great research that

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Dr. Lawrence Yoon and Dr.

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Jessica Laus pulled together so that

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as they're looking at areas
where there could be potential

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challenges or need for legislative fixes

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that we're monitoring
this day in and day out.

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- That's good to know because we, yes,

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we have an advocacy team that goes up

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and lobbies on the hill,

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but we also have a full
policy team led by Brian Green

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who is on top of the, the regulatory,

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the rulemaking process, the
implementation, which is,

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is just, just as is grave of consequences.

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- Exactly. And that's
where this team is going

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to be very active.

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And, and then looking at
things like any changes

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that could happen to the
opportunity zone program

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that comes from the regulatory side, the

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MAGA Trump accounts and what
that tax treatment looks like.

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And there could always be,
anytime you have a new program

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like that, you need to have some,

252
00:10:46,260 --> 00:10:48,030
some guardrails in and some voices.

253
00:10:48,030 --> 00:10:51,510
So we'll still be monitoring
this very closely. Okay.

254
00:10:51,510 --> 00:10:52,500
- Well let's talk a little bit about the

255
00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:53,280
real estate economy.

256
00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,440
'cause we just mentioned Lawrence

257
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,700
and promoting NAR
research is one of our top

258
00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:03,450
advocacy priorities
that's on Flyin realtor.

259
00:11:03,450 --> 00:11:06,540
And, and so, you know,
Lawrence just got us some sort

260
00:11:06,540 --> 00:11:08,730
of fresh information
just for this episode,

261
00:11:08,730 --> 00:11:10,380
but tell, to give us an update just sort

262
00:11:10,380 --> 00:11:13,560
of on the current state of
the real estate economy and,

263
00:11:13,560 --> 00:11:16,170
and as we look, you
know, towards the future.

264
00:11:16,170 --> 00:11:17,700
- Oh yes. And we speak directly

265
00:11:17,700 --> 00:11:19,890
to high level officials at the White House

266
00:11:19,890 --> 00:11:24,540
and in the relevant
agencies and bring in Lauren

267
00:11:24,540 --> 00:11:25,890
and Jessica and others so

268
00:11:25,890 --> 00:11:28,890
that they are getting our
research just like everyone else's

269
00:11:28,890 --> 00:11:31,200
and that they have access
to all of that information.

270
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:32,460
The entire concept

271
00:11:32,460 --> 00:11:34,800
of our inventory shortage
came from the research

272
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:36,960
that our team did in sharing
that with the White House

273
00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:38,220
and sharing that with lawmakers.

274
00:11:38,220 --> 00:11:42,180
And since then we have been
the ones who determine what

275
00:11:42,180 --> 00:11:44,460
that number is and how many units short.

276
00:11:44,460 --> 00:11:46,620
And that's the kind of stuff
that we're continuing to do.

277
00:11:46,620 --> 00:11:50,190
So right now we're seeing
continued headwinds from the high

278
00:11:50,190 --> 00:11:53,440
interest rates and that lack of inventory

279
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,300
home sales in 2023

280
00:11:55,300 --> 00:11:59,650
and in 2024 were the
slowest in nearly 30 years.

281
00:11:59,650 --> 00:12:01,900
And that also means that
housing affordability was

282
00:12:01,900 --> 00:12:04,060
reaching historic lows.

283
00:12:04,060 --> 00:12:06,430
And just earlier this year in May, we saw

284
00:12:06,430 --> 00:12:10,540
that existing home sales
modestly increased about a little

285
00:12:10,540 --> 00:12:13,030
under 1% month over month.

286
00:12:13,030 --> 00:12:17,800
And then the unsold inventory
rose about 6% from April,

287
00:12:18,670 --> 00:12:22,270
including 1.54 million
homes, which translates

288
00:12:22,270 --> 00:12:24,790
to about a four and a half month supply.

289
00:12:24,790 --> 00:12:26,680
So that's a healthy market balance.

290
00:12:26,680 --> 00:12:29,230
There's, there's definitely
there demand out there.

291
00:12:29,230 --> 00:12:31,090
One of the challenges that
we have is just that lack

292
00:12:31,090 --> 00:12:32,320
of inventory and also

293
00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:35,320
with the high interest rate
environment that folks are,

294
00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,360
are sitting on properties
and unwilling to sell

295
00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,610
- And home values remain strong.

296
00:12:39,610 --> 00:12:43,810
422,000 was the median existing
home price that that hit a,

297
00:12:43,810 --> 00:12:47,545
a record high in May, up
up a 1.3% year over year.

298
00:12:47,545 --> 00:12:49,750
So, so there is some
optimism in these numbers

299
00:12:49,750 --> 00:12:51,880
and in fact, you know,
looking into the crystal ball,

300
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,010
Shannon and, and like that's
the kind of the current state

301
00:12:54,010 --> 00:12:57,100
of the market, but where the
market is heading, Lawrence,

302
00:12:57,100 --> 00:12:59,620
you know, thinks we've,
we've hit bottom and, and is

303
00:12:59,620 --> 00:13:01,570
and there's there's notes of optimism

304
00:13:01,570 --> 00:13:03,250
for, for the coming year.

305
00:13:03,250 --> 00:13:06,550
- Yes. Lawrence is projected
that home sales will recover

306
00:13:06,550 --> 00:13:09,340
after bottoming out in
the first half of 2025,

307
00:13:09,340 --> 00:13:11,620
especially if mortgage rates decline.

308
00:13:11,620 --> 00:13:15,490
And there has been a lot of
conversation happening in,

309
00:13:15,490 --> 00:13:18,490
in DC coming from President
Trump's administration in

310
00:13:18,490 --> 00:13:22,570
particular to put pressure
on those interest rates

311
00:13:22,570 --> 00:13:24,880
and that with inflation going down

312
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,250
that those interest rates
should go down with it.

313
00:13:27,250 --> 00:13:29,650
So some optimistic numbers here.

314
00:13:29,650 --> 00:13:32,560
So we are seeing some
inventory growth leading

315
00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:34,510
to some better balance in the market

316
00:13:34,510 --> 00:13:37,330
and some wage growth,
which is outpacing some

317
00:13:37,330 --> 00:13:38,860
of the home price increases.

318
00:13:38,860 --> 00:13:40,870
- Alright. And also the
Federal Reserve is beginning

319
00:13:40,870 --> 00:13:43,090
to cut short term lending rates

320
00:13:43,090 --> 00:13:45,100
with more cuts anticipated in 25.

321
00:13:45,100 --> 00:13:46,420
So that'll help as well.

322
00:13:46,420 --> 00:13:47,560
- Exactly. Yeah.
- Okay.

323
00:13:47,560 --> 00:13:50,170
Well the tax bills, we have
a, we have a current state

324
00:13:50,170 --> 00:13:52,630
of the economy here for the,
at least for real estate,

325
00:13:52,630 --> 00:13:56,200
the tax bill is done, Dr.
Lawrence, Yung is optimistic.

326
00:13:56,200 --> 00:14:00,790
So how does n a's advocacy
fit into this picture now

327
00:14:00,790 --> 00:14:02,470
like moving forward?

328
00:14:02,470 --> 00:14:05,740
- Our advocacy is working
still around the clock,

329
00:14:05,740 --> 00:14:08,710
then it changes nothing in
how, in how we approach it.

330
00:14:08,710 --> 00:14:11,470
So we'll continue to
aggressively work with Congress

331
00:14:11,470 --> 00:14:14,650
and the administration
to tackle the root causes

332
00:14:14,650 --> 00:14:15,790
of these market challenges

333
00:14:15,790 --> 00:14:19,330
and that is inventory
shortages and affordability.

334
00:14:19,330 --> 00:14:22,240
So we have been tra championing
bipartisan legislation

335
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,720
for years for multiple
congresses that will address

336
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,190
that supply and affordability

337
00:14:27,190 --> 00:14:30,280
and we have all of those listed on Flyin,

338
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,040
realtor Patrick's legacy website.

339
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,350
- Well we also have national polling.

340
00:14:35,350 --> 00:14:37,960
Some of it is on flying as well about all

341
00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:42,790
of these real estate tax
provisions because, you know, just

342
00:14:42,790 --> 00:14:46,120
because the tax bill is
done doesn't mean that

343
00:14:46,990 --> 00:14:48,550
there isn't another bite at the Apple.

344
00:14:48,550 --> 00:14:51,620
- There are plenty of other tax provisions

345
00:14:51,620 --> 00:14:52,760
that need to be addressed.

346
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,330
And one of the reasons why
this was called the one Big

347
00:14:56,330 --> 00:14:58,340
Beautiful Bill act is

348
00:14:58,340 --> 00:15:00,860
because there are opportunities for others

349
00:15:00,860 --> 00:15:05,360
and the reconciliation process,
which is a budget procedure

350
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,660
that allows for a simple
majority vote out of the Senate,

351
00:15:08,660 --> 00:15:11,540
which is a lot easier
than going through cloture

352
00:15:11,540 --> 00:15:13,160
and all that fun stuff.

353
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,580
We do expect to see at least
two more bites at the Apple

354
00:15:16,580 --> 00:15:19,790
here and there are other tax
provisions that would have

355
00:15:19,790 --> 00:15:22,970
to originate in the house
that we have been advocating

356
00:15:22,970 --> 00:15:25,040
for over the last two congresses

357
00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,710
and that we have increased
bipartisan support,

358
00:15:27,710 --> 00:15:29,870
including things like the
more homes on the Market act

359
00:15:29,870 --> 00:15:31,700
and the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act

360
00:15:31,700 --> 00:15:33,350
that could potentially be part of

361
00:15:33,350 --> 00:15:35,240
that next reconciliation package.

362
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:39,110
So we have done polling, we
have done great message research

363
00:15:39,110 --> 00:15:40,670
and communications activities

364
00:15:40,670 --> 00:15:43,040
and sponsored ads to make
sure that Congress knows

365
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:44,630
that the work is not done

366
00:15:44,630 --> 00:15:46,370
with the one big beautiful bill act

367
00:15:46,370 --> 00:15:48,170
and that there can be more changes

368
00:15:48,170 --> 00:15:50,810
to help increase housing and
make it more affordable. So

369
00:15:50,810 --> 00:15:53,780
- What you're saying is that
there could be two skinny

370
00:15:53,780 --> 00:15:55,820
beautiful bills

371
00:15:55,820 --> 00:15:56,900
- If they can be skinny?

372
00:15:56,900 --> 00:16:00,830
They can, they can be any we
any size that they need to be.

373
00:16:00,830 --> 00:16:03,320
The important thing is
that it increases inventory

374
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,230
and brings down the cost of housing and,

375
00:16:05,230 --> 00:16:06,890
and we have bipartisan support

376
00:16:06,890 --> 00:16:09,020
and bicameral support
for this legislation.

377
00:16:09,020 --> 00:16:12,650
- So no, no rest for the
weary for your team and

378
00:16:12,650 --> 00:16:14,300
and our lobbyists

379
00:16:14,300 --> 00:16:16,730
because the congress
is, is full steam ahead

380
00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:18,920
and they're gonna wanna
take maximum advantage

381
00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,550
of these two additional bites
at the reconciliation apple.

382
00:16:22,550 --> 00:16:25,370
- Exactly. And when we did
our fly-in back in June

383
00:16:25,370 --> 00:16:27,530
and had realtors all over the capitol

384
00:16:27,530 --> 00:16:31,160
with our talking points from
Flyin realtor, please visit,

385
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:32,420
these were issues that we continue

386
00:16:32,420 --> 00:16:34,820
to talk about then knowing
that they were not going

387
00:16:34,820 --> 00:16:37,550
to be the right fit for
the one big beautiful bill,

388
00:16:37,550 --> 00:16:40,400
but that there will be
increased interest in housing

389
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,650
legislation and that this could be another

390
00:16:42,650 --> 00:16:44,240
opportunity for Congress to weigh in.

391
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,540
- And Flyin realtor is forward
looking in the sense that,

392
00:16:47,540 --> 00:16:50,180
you know, we knew what was
pretty much gonna be in the tax

393
00:16:50,180 --> 00:16:52,820
bill and so we wanted Flyin

394
00:16:52,820 --> 00:16:55,220
and our priorities to
be looking beyond that.

395
00:16:55,220 --> 00:16:58,250
- Exactly. Yeah. Yeah.
- So two thirds of our advocacy,

396
00:16:58,250 --> 00:17:00,050
you know, happens at the
state and local levels

397
00:17:00,050 --> 00:17:01,400
and what are some of the things

398
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:02,900
that you're working on on that front?

399
00:17:02,900 --> 00:17:04,460
- This is where a lot

400
00:17:04,460 --> 00:17:07,160
of the most important work is happening.

401
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,110
Things like smart zoning,

402
00:17:09,110 --> 00:17:12,050
opposing harmful rent
control efforts, ensuring

403
00:17:12,050 --> 00:17:14,660
that realtors have a seat at every table,

404
00:17:14,660 --> 00:17:16,220
whether it's at the local, state

405
00:17:16,220 --> 00:17:18,590
or federal when it
comes to these policies.

406
00:17:18,590 --> 00:17:21,560
We have been working with
mayors, the National League

407
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,890
of Cities, the American Planning
Association on the Housing

408
00:17:24,890 --> 00:17:26,750
Supply Accelerator playbook

409
00:17:26,750 --> 00:17:28,640
and taking that around the country so

410
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,220
that whether you're a
county commissioner or mayor

411
00:17:31,220 --> 00:17:34,550
or someone who's interested
in city planning, you know

412
00:17:34,550 --> 00:17:37,070
what policies work to help unleash housing

413
00:17:37,070 --> 00:17:39,080
and make it more affordable
in your community.

414
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:40,820
This has 40 policies

415
00:17:40,820 --> 00:17:43,550
that could be implemented
right now at the local level.

416
00:17:43,550 --> 00:17:45,680
And so that's another thing
that we're going to continue

417
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,360
to take around the country this year.

418
00:17:47,360 --> 00:17:49,200
- Okay, great. You know,
we've been, we've been

419
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,500
so focused on this, this tax
bill and, and, and congress.

420
00:17:52,500 --> 00:17:54,090
It's a good reminder that two thirds

421
00:17:54,090 --> 00:17:56,490
of our advocacy do not
happen inside the beltway.

422
00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,880
- It's about stopping a lot
of things from happening

423
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:01,200
inside the beltway, but a lot

424
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,030
of the real positive
developments are, are going

425
00:18:03,030 --> 00:18:04,350
to happen at the state and local level

426
00:18:04,350 --> 00:18:07,200
and we have amazing
partnerships with our state

427
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,420
and local associations
to, to make that happen.

428
00:18:09,420 --> 00:18:12,120
- Alright, well thank you
for the look into the future,

429
00:18:12,120 --> 00:18:13,500
Shannon, of our advocacy

430
00:18:13,500 --> 00:18:16,260
and we will bring it
to you in, in real time

431
00:18:16,260 --> 00:18:17,970
through the podcast of course every month

432
00:18:17,970 --> 00:18:19,110
with your behind the scenes look.

433
00:18:19,110 --> 00:18:21,030
But it is closing time.

434
00:18:22,230 --> 00:18:24,720
So give us the scoop here on
something that we don't know.

435
00:18:25,620 --> 00:18:28,440
- Oh well there's plenty
going on still in DC and,

436
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,690
and I know we've talked about
what's next for advocacy

437
00:18:30,690 --> 00:18:34,050
and what else could be
happening in the tax space.

438
00:18:34,050 --> 00:18:37,710
The item that we are out
rebranding, if you will, thanks

439
00:18:37,710 --> 00:18:39,240
to Patrick, to your efforts

440
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,430
and others is what is
happening in the future

441
00:18:41,430 --> 00:18:42,510
of capital gains.

442
00:18:42,510 --> 00:18:46,440
And whenever folks hear
capital gains, they either yawn

443
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,750
or they think of like the monopoly man.

444
00:18:48,750 --> 00:18:51,960
And you know, this is for
capital gains is like some tax

445
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:56,190
that impacts people who are
investing in stocks and bonds

446
00:18:56,190 --> 00:18:58,890
and have, you know, these wealth accounts

447
00:18:58,890 --> 00:18:59,940
and things that we're, they're,

448
00:18:59,940 --> 00:19:01,620
- You have to have a
monocle for goodness sake,

449
00:19:01,620 --> 00:19:03,960
- You have to have a monocle
otherwise you, I mean know

450
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,940
and just show up to work in a tuxedo.

451
00:19:05,940 --> 00:19:07,680
That's, that's what capital gains means.

452
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,150
And so we have been hitting the halls

453
00:19:09,150 --> 00:19:12,960
of Congress talking
about the home equity tax

454
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,540
that capital gains impacts home equity,

455
00:19:15,540 --> 00:19:19,140
even if it is an owner
occupied primary residence,

456
00:19:19,140 --> 00:19:20,790
that when you go to sell,

457
00:19:20,790 --> 00:19:24,990
if you have more than $250,000
in equity at that point

458
00:19:24,990 --> 00:19:29,040
after that sale or more than
500,000 for a married couple,

459
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,190
that you are going to be subject
to that capital gains tax.

460
00:19:32,190 --> 00:19:35,730
And that is something that
is going to pull a great deal

461
00:19:35,730 --> 00:19:38,550
of wealth out of the real
estate economy, especially

462
00:19:38,550 --> 00:19:41,880
for aging homeowners who
are looking to downsize

463
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,500
or may unfortunately have

464
00:19:43,500 --> 00:19:45,210
to go into an assisted living facility

465
00:19:45,210 --> 00:19:48,360
or someplace where they need
access to cash right away.

466
00:19:48,360 --> 00:19:50,610
And then realizing, wait
a second, this is going

467
00:19:50,610 --> 00:19:52,050
to be a massive tax hit.

468
00:19:52,050 --> 00:19:54,840
So we have been communicating
with policy makers

469
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,580
that this isn't a capital gains.

470
00:19:56,580 --> 00:19:57,990
It's not just some asset

471
00:19:57,990 --> 00:19:59,460
that's sitting in an account somewhere.

472
00:19:59,460 --> 00:20:01,650
This is a roof over your head, this is

473
00:20:01,650 --> 00:20:03,270
where you raised your family, this is

474
00:20:03,270 --> 00:20:05,010
where you're sleeping at night.

475
00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:08,340
And many folks do not realize what

476
00:20:08,340 --> 00:20:10,290
that tax consequence will be.

477
00:20:10,290 --> 00:20:12,150
So thanks to our research team

478
00:20:12,150 --> 00:20:14,970
and Evan Lydiard who runs our tax policy,

479
00:20:14,970 --> 00:20:17,970
we've put together some really helpful

480
00:20:17,970 --> 00:20:21,810
and shocking studies that
show right now roughly a third

481
00:20:21,810 --> 00:20:23,940
of homes that could be on the market

482
00:20:23,940 --> 00:20:26,250
that those sellers would
be subject to that with

483
00:20:26,250 --> 00:20:28,410
that $250,000 in equity

484
00:20:28,410 --> 00:20:32,250
and in 10 years you're
looking at 70% of homes

485
00:20:32,250 --> 00:20:34,380
that are going to be subject to this tax.

486
00:20:34,380 --> 00:20:36,900
So this is going to be a huge change.

487
00:20:36,900 --> 00:20:40,650
This cliff that baby boomers
in particular will be hitting

488
00:20:40,650 --> 00:20:43,620
to see, do I need to account for this

489
00:20:43,620 --> 00:20:47,470
and my will, how do I
adjust for work with my,

490
00:20:47,470 --> 00:20:50,410
or adjust my finances to
make sure that I have access

491
00:20:50,410 --> 00:20:51,880
to my home equity when I need it

492
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,040
and I'm not going to have to
pay such a stiff financial

493
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,510
penalty just to sell my home.

494
00:20:55,510 --> 00:20:58,330
- Yeah. And so I'm gonna walk
around with my taboo buzzer.

495
00:20:58,330 --> 00:20:59,800
Anytime someone says capital gains,

496
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,560
I'm just gonna buzz them
like it's a home equity tax.

497
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,330
'cause you know that, I mean we laugh,

498
00:21:04,330 --> 00:21:07,870
but remember when they
rebranded Inheritance Tax

499
00:21:07,870 --> 00:21:11,380
to the death tax, it changed
the whole conversation.

500
00:21:11,380 --> 00:21:14,050
- That was my very first boss on the hill,

501
00:21:14,050 --> 00:21:15,460
congresswoman Jennifer Dunn on the Ways

502
00:21:15,460 --> 00:21:17,290
and Means committee from
Seattle, Washington.

503
00:21:17,290 --> 00:21:18,580
That was her bill. And she worked

504
00:21:18,580 --> 00:21:20,140
with some communications folks

505
00:21:20,140 --> 00:21:21,670
and rebranded it, the Death Tax.

506
00:21:21,670 --> 00:21:23,830
And that's what we call it.
And it is, it is something

507
00:21:23,830 --> 00:21:25,600
to this day everyone that
impacts any, when you,

508
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,130
you pay taxes and then you die

509
00:21:27,130 --> 00:21:29,200
and then this, you're
subject to another tax

510
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,200
and this is a, you know,
home ownership tax,

511
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,580
a home equity tax and something

512
00:21:33,580 --> 00:21:36,400
that we are seeing great
bipartisan support.

513
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:37,900
The more homes on the market act

514
00:21:37,900 --> 00:21:40,930
that has bipartisan co-sponsors,

515
00:21:40,930 --> 00:21:43,630
Congressman Jimmy
Panetta out of California

516
00:21:43,630 --> 00:21:45,910
and Mike Kelly out of Pennsylvania,

517
00:21:45,910 --> 00:21:49,660
that would double those
exemptions from the two 50 to 500,

518
00:21:49,660 --> 00:21:52,750
500 to a million, which
would be an immediate fix.

519
00:21:52,750 --> 00:21:54,190
The real issue is that this type

520
00:21:54,190 --> 00:21:57,790
of home equity has been protected
in the tax laws since the

521
00:21:57,790 --> 00:21:58,960
late 1990s.

522
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,270
1997 was when they went into effect.

523
00:22:01,270 --> 00:22:02,950
And it just has not been touched since.

524
00:22:02,950 --> 00:22:04,750
So it hasn't kept up with inflation and

525
00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:07,180
because Congress has not
acted over all these years and

526
00:22:07,180 --> 00:22:10,570
because home values have
increased, which is great

527
00:22:10,570 --> 00:22:12,040
for homeowners and great for equity

528
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,320
and great for those who
want to be in a home

529
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,620
because they can move more
property, have more inventory,

530
00:22:17,620 --> 00:22:19,180
and more first time
home buyers will be able

531
00:22:19,180 --> 00:22:21,310
to get into those homes for
lower rates if they're not

532
00:22:21,310 --> 00:22:24,070
paying such a steep penalty in taxes.

533
00:22:24,070 --> 00:22:26,290
- Right. It's a roadblock on the ladder

534
00:22:26,290 --> 00:22:27,290
- Yep.

535
00:22:27,290 --> 00:22:28,930
- Of home ownership. People
wanna move up the ladder

536
00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:31,780
and you have this whole generation
that is sitting on their,

537
00:22:31,780 --> 00:22:34,060
their homes and not moving.

538
00:22:34,060 --> 00:22:36,580
As Evan said, you know, older Americans

539
00:22:36,580 --> 00:22:39,280
who don't go into the
basement, don't go upstairs,

540
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,700
they're waiting because they
know if they leave the home

541
00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:44,680
to their children and their will

542
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,990
'cause of step up, they
won't have to pay anything.

543
00:22:46,990 --> 00:22:49,810
But if they sell while they're
alive, they have to pay,

544
00:22:49,810 --> 00:22:51,130
they're punished, they have to pay capital

545
00:22:51,130 --> 00:22:52,130
- Gains.

546
00:22:52,130 --> 00:22:53,380
They're punished. Yeah. And
one of the reasons why capital

547
00:22:53,380 --> 00:22:56,170
gains has not been addressed
is because of Pay Fors.

548
00:22:56,170 --> 00:22:59,020
It's very expensive when you
look at congressional budget

549
00:22:59,020 --> 00:23:02,350
estimates on, you have to
actually have another account

550
00:23:02,350 --> 00:23:05,410
that will pay for what they're
losing in that tax revenue.

551
00:23:05,410 --> 00:23:07,900
But similar to 10 31 like Kind Exchange,

552
00:23:07,900 --> 00:23:10,570
this actually generates
more economic revenue

553
00:23:10,570 --> 00:23:12,130
for every home sold.

554
00:23:12,130 --> 00:23:13,840
That's $80,000

555
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,810
that is being generated
into the local economy.

556
00:23:16,810 --> 00:23:18,280
We also would be able to see

557
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,280
that more first time home buyers
are able to afford a home.

558
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,680
And so these are all
positive economic benefits

559
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,590
that unfortunately are
included in those congressional

560
00:23:26,590 --> 00:23:31,060
scores, which is why I think
we need a very tailored

561
00:23:31,060 --> 00:23:32,800
response to this that looks at

562
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,160
that home equity tax and address it to

563
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:37,160
- Not getting started.

564
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,480
It's like every, every
home sold creates two jobs.

565
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,580
So, you know, that's
called dynamic scoring.

566
00:23:42,580 --> 00:23:43,870
- You're the budget expert.

567
00:23:43,870 --> 00:23:46,010
Patrick, if you could, if we
can just send you to Congress

568
00:23:46,010 --> 00:23:47,180
and you can work on how they,

569
00:23:47,180 --> 00:23:50,810
they measure these budget
numbers, that would be

570
00:23:50,810 --> 00:23:52,400
- Much, nothing's more
controversial in this

571
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:53,600
town than dynamic scoring.

572
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,160
Okay. Well we, we
recorded an entire episode

573
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,050
during closing time on capital gains tax.

574
00:24:00,050 --> 00:24:03,290
So not, but it was fun

575
00:24:03,290 --> 00:24:05,600
and you can tell when we
really get worked up about a,

576
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,580
a topic because we,

577
00:24:07,580 --> 00:24:09,800
- And that study is all
on Flyin realtor. That's

578
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:10,800
- Right.

579
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:11,930
Well thank you Shannon.

580
00:24:11,930 --> 00:24:16,010
We'll see you back here next
month and thanks for listening.

581
00:24:16,010 --> 00:24:17,510
So that's the scoop. Thank you

582
00:24:17,510 --> 00:24:19,520
to everyone listening to this podcast.

583
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:20,750
Please be sure to subscribe

584
00:24:20,750 --> 00:24:22,220
and share wherever you get your

585
00:24:22,220 --> 00:24:23,960
podcast. And meet us right back

586
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,210
- Here for more advocacy scoop next time.

587
00:24:27,500 --> 00:24:30,680
Realtors are members of
the National Association

588
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:31,490
of Realtors.