Fair Territory: Cubs NEED to spend, Mets have Kyle Tucker interest, Arbitration exchange day

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Thursday edition of Fair Territory. I'm Ken Rosenthal, joined today by the Grand Puba of the Foul Territory Network. Scott Braun will be co hosting alana Is as they say on assignment. So we've got Scott today, and Scott, we've got a lot to get through on this Thursday.

00:00:18
Speaker 2: We do. You know, I love doing this hopping on for a little cameo pinch hip performance, Ken, So let's jump right into the lead. And I will say to those who celebrate happy arbitration figure exchange Day. I don't know why you would celebrate unless you're a player, But what can you tell us about this? And I will add fans should care if they somehow hear an extension pop up for a player of their choice. But really, for the most part, we're just figuring out salaries for next year, right.

00:00:47
Speaker 1: That's exactly right for arbitration eligible players. And the interesting things, as you mentioned, Scott, one would be an extension. Two would be an unusual split one way or the other, a team offering a lot more than the player is asking, a player asking for a lot more than the team is offering, or a split that is so ridiculously close that it should have been settled. And then finally today we have the case of Terek Scougle and he's a very interesting case, and we'll show you the most prominent players that are eligible today and the ones that are projected to receive the highest salaries. Trek Scougble is while projected by Mlbtrade Rumors dot Com to get seventeen point eight million, that probably is low. He's a two times sy Young winner, back to back sy Young winner, and he is expected to break the record into arbitration for a pitcher, which is David Price's nineteen point seventy five million. Because of those back to back cy Young's, Schooble is in a particularly great place as far as his arbitration case is concerned. And while Mlbtrade Rumors dot Com is kind of looking at the race he got last year, which was seven and a half million to ten point one five million, and taking the same kind of rays and giving it to him year, because Schooble has what is known as those special accomplishments, he is going to do really well here and a question will be whether they settle or whether they reach a number. Generally, these cases as you mentioned Scott all Settle, but I'm sure there'll be some that don't today as well.

00:02:19
Speaker 2: So when I look at that list, of course, keep in mind that a player who is one year from free agency is going to be in a different mode, in a different tier, right, And that actually applies to both the two that I'm about to bring up, Trek Scooble and Randy Rosorina. It is kind of weird to see Randy ahead of school Schooble is a back to back sy young winner. Randy's good player. He had one of the most epic October's you know, we've seen in the twenty first century, but that was a while ago at this point, nice player, but it's just crazy to think that him and Schooble, according to this MLB and Players Association agreed upon system, are worth around the same amount right now.

00:02:57
Speaker 1: I do expect Schooble to do better, but starting pictures in arbitration, for whatever reason, do not generally fare as well, at least to start with. And then what happens is you're building your future salaries on the previous salaries. So because that happens because the first fear arbitrations, starting pitchers generally start at four or five million. They do not accelerate as quickly or as prominently as some of the others. It's kind of a weird deal, but yeah, that's the way the system goes.

00:03:28
Speaker 2: Okay, Ken, Let's move to your latest column. It came out this morning and it has to do with the Cubs latest acquisition of Eduard Cabrera. But what's next? And I think the way to summarize it from the fan perspective is that you said, much more eloquent terms and more detailed terms, what every Cubs fan is feeling for a while now, probably for five years now. Can we spend some damn money to show that we're a big market exactly?

00:03:55
Speaker 1: And they had one major free agent signing in twenty twenty two that was Dance by Swamp and, as I point out in a column, that has worked out well.

00:04:03
Speaker 2: Now.

00:04:03
Speaker 1: The point of what I wrote is that after getting Cabrera and giving up Owen Casey, a guy who figured prominently in your future as an outfielder, then where are you now? This is two years in a row. The Cubs have traded a very highly regarded hitting prospect, Cam Smith last year for Tucker for one year of Tucker, as well as trading e Zach Parides and Wesnsky in that deal, and then doing this trade Owen Casey, their number one prospect, the guy who was expected to hit will probably play a prominent role this year for the Marlins. And then you get Edward Cabrera. That's fine, but you're one bat short because Tucker is not coming back. And what I'm suggesting is that they signed one of the big four guys who fit them to varying degrees. I'm talking, of course about Bellinger, Bishett, Bregman, and Tucker. Obviously some of those fit better than others. You can make the case any which way you want, and who knows if certain players want to come to Wrigley, which is a challenging hitting environment, when they might have better options. Okay, but at some point the Cubs need to stop being cute and go for it and go after one of these types of players if they want to be a team that is a World Series contender. Now, maybe they're comfortable getting in the playoffs, maybe win in the Central, maybe getting in as a wild card, Okay, but it shouldn't be enough for a Chicago team, a team that plays in the third largest market in the United States and a team that should be just competing at a higher level. I will say this about this trade. I did like it a lot for the Marlins. I like Casey, I like his potential. I know he's had some swing and mis issues a lot of young players do. Cabrera is a risk. He's had injury issues last year, elbow problem that cost him most of September the year before, twice on the al with the shoulder in pingement. He's a guy that is extremely talented and if he's on lookout, But the problem is will he stay healthy. You see last year one hundred and thirty seven and two thirds innings. He also had a blister issue at the start of the season that cost him time as well.

00:06:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, you figure the innings total for him is going to be one fifty or below, right. It's just not a guy that's going to eat significant innings. So in my mind, Ken, this is someone that the Cubs look at as getting to October, if we can get there, and starting a playoff game for us. Of course, you want him to make as many starts as possible during the regular season, but I get it. You handled what you wanted to on the starting pitching end. Want to bring up how in your article you said the second half for the Cubs plus the playoffs was not very rosy for them. From an offensive standpoint, Tucker was much better in the first half. He's not back Pete crow Armstrong, who is he? We saw a superstar in the first half and then his production fell off in the second half of the season. So this all adds up to what you're saying with offense. Here's my question. I thought the interesting for it in the article that I need to keep reminding myself. Rickley Field right now is a pitcher's park. If the Cubs are trying to be cheap and signed guys who have opt outs right like the deal that they were able to do with Cody Bellinger, why am I, as a free agent choosing Chicago if that is going to potentially suppress my offensive production. If I'm looking at this as a one or a two year deal, even if it's a larger deal like four years, but I want to opt out and hit the market again, why would I choose Rickley.

00:07:29
Speaker 1: Right And that's the point I'm making. If you're in that position, if you're the Cubs, and you're thinking we can get cue here and do something short with opt outs. No, you probably can't because a player of this caliber of the guys we're talking about Tucker, Bashette, Regman and Bellinger, they're not going to say, yeah, I'll go to Wrigley Free that's a great idea. Bellinger didn't have a choice, he didn't have a better option. But these players, I would think, do have better options. And yeah, that's a problem. So that is why what I'm saying is they've got to go longer here. They've got to give one of these guys six.

00:08:03
Speaker 2: Years or whatever.

00:08:04
Speaker 1: It's going to take five years high Aavy, maybe seven years. They gave Dansby seven years. They've got to do something along those lines. And they are positioned to from a financial perspective as well. They are well below the luxury tax threshold. The first threshold, there's thirty million plus below that. They also have minimal commitments for the next three years, almost zero in a relative sense. It's really just Dansby, Swanson and film Aton for twenty twenty seven. I think it's thirty nine million total. So when you're in that spot, when your books are clean, when you're not even close to the threshold. Why are we playing around here? Why aren't we going for it with one of these players, That's the question I'm asking.

00:08:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the dream scenario. You're a big market team and you have the books very clean after twenty twenty six. This is the offseason when you usually pounce because you're going to have a bunch of players that are talented one more season and then hit free agency. So anyway, we'll keep an eye on that, Ken, I do want to also cover what the rest of the starting pitching market is going to look like. We're still waiting on a few big names to sign, like Forrembervaldez and Ranger Suarez. But how does this trade, and I guess we can look at the Shane bos trade too, affect what's next here. I know you've talked a lot about Freddy Peralta and how you're probably edging towards him being traded more so than not being traded. So what's next.

00:09:27
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting, Scott, these two trades that we've seen Boz and now Cabrera big returns. The Bos return was massive. I would say a lot of top prospects went in that deal. Guys who were further away, but players that could have good careers. And with Cabrera, it's Casey and two other pieces, and Casey was the Cub's number one prospect. So for three years of Edward Cabrera, the Cubs were willing to do that. Now, Mackenzie Gore two years of control left, I'm sorry, three years of control left, and then Freddie Paralta one year of control left. So it's a different scenario with those two guys. But if you're the Nationals and you're sitting there with Gore, you're in a good spot right now. If you're the Brewers with Paralta, it's a little different because one year of control is something where teams are reluctant to commit too much. But at the same time, Freddie Peralta, if they trade him, should command a pretty sizable return. And if the Brewers get a major League ready starting pitcher out of that, plus maybe another piece or two, I would say that's a win for them, at least in terms of maximizing Paralta's value. We can debate whether it's a wise move to trade Parolta. I'm not sure that it is. If you're trying to win this year. But that's not how the Brewers operate, and time and time again they've churned their roster. They did it with Corbyn Burns, they did it with Josh Hater, and they've done it to great effect, even while at times getting criticized for it. I was critical of the Hater trade, and the Hater trade was a bad look in a lot of ways, but it led them to William Contreras and Robert Gasser and got them ultimately a great return. So with Peralta, they feel they have the depth behind him to do this. But if they can get one more picture in this one more starting pitcher, a young guy who is ready to go, that would be for me a pretty good return and something the Brewers should really look at.

00:11:22
Speaker 2: Okay, now, let's move to the Kyle Tucker market, right, the guy who's supposed to get the most guaranteed dollars on the free agent market. And your colleague Will Salmon also covers the Mets and put out an article last night about the interest for the Mets in someone like Tucker. What did you make of the article? And I'll do the classic fan question, why would Kyle Tucker select the Mets for maybe a contract that only guarantees him three or four years in a high average annual value versus the Blue Jays who might be offering him eight years. Other than maybe he just doesn't want to go to Canada.

00:12:00
Speaker 1: Right and who knows what the player's preference might be. He also might not want to go to New York. This is a low key guy. I don't know that he necessarily wants the New York spotlight. But what the Mets are thinking, when all teams are thinking right now, and what they're all trying to do and dreaming of, is short term deals for these big time players and including opt outs if necessary in order to get the player. But on the lesser commitment, every team is dreaming of that, at least every team with the money to afford these players. Now, can they get it done? That remains to be seen. If you're Tucker, and let's just play out what you just said, Scott, the J's are offering seven or eight years thirty thirty five forty million a year. The Mets are offering four years. And let's say the aav is forty five a year, and the Mets aren't even at four years. According to Will's article, there are three so or below even I don't know, you're not going to the Mets, and the player ultimately is going to go, most likely for the best deal. So I understand the Mets, like the Dodgers, are trying to get the best possible financial situation they can with one of these big time players. But it's not always so easy to do when the market exists to go longer for those players. And with Tucker, at least, I expect that's the position he's going to be. And now if he doesn't want to play for the Blue Jays and the rest of the offers are these shorter offers, okay, then the Mets are in play, and the Mets should be in play. But do I expect that to happen. No. I would say Toronto right now is the leader in the clubhouse for Tucker, just based on everything we know and Scott, as you know, we don't always know everything. In fact, we often know very little about what's going on behind the scenes in free agency.

00:13:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, we love when something mysterious pops up. And my last thought on this is that if the Mets are trying to be like the Dodgers, which they've stated publicly, for many years now, hanging around and seeing if someone's going to take that high av shorter term dealer. It's cool, but not when the Dodgers also seem to be hanging around for the same player if they have similar offers. I think we know where he's going to end up, right, if want to The.

00:14:10
Speaker 1: Yankees want to do this, the Red Sox want to do this. They all want to do this. Well, if you all want to do it, someone who goes longer is going to ultimately most likely get the player.

00:14:19
Speaker 2: Yep, makes sense. Okay, We'll be right back with Dude and Dork of the week.

00:14:23
Speaker 1: Dude, dude, dude.

00:14:31
Speaker 2: This is my nightmare right now, Ken, because I get a heads up on what dude and dork is going to look like for you. I sit next to aj Przinski every day, right and I have to try and prevent him from making it a football show all day. I say that in Jess, but he does love talking football. I heard that your Dude of the week is not in baseball. What do you have for us?

00:14:50
Speaker 1: It is not in baseball? And I believe this is the first time I've ever selected a due to the week not baseball related. But I was so impressed by Tyler Loup and the bounce he had after missing that kick for the Ravens in the Sunday night game that determined the AFC North champion and ultimately led to John Harbaugh getting fired as Ravens coach. I was so impressed by that that he is my Dude of the week. This guy is twenty four years old. He just went through a moment that is as humiliating and embarrassing whatever word you might want to use as a player can experience in any sport difficult as any player could experience, and the Ravens in every way handled this well. Harbaugh when he walked off the field with Luke, had his arm around him. And then when Luke did the interview and he spoke for seven minutes, seven minutes which is a long time, he had the snapper and the holder right there next to him offering support. But what impressed me the most was him and the way he answered questions and how he just calmly explained everything that went on, everything he was feeling. He obviously felt terribly for the team, and I will say this is as well the reporters in this scenario. If you watch the tape and watch the video of it. They were very respectful in their questions and they ask good questions, so it all worked the way it's supposed to work. Good questions a guy answering questions, and I know fans often say I'll leave the guys alone after they have a tough no. That is not the way this world works, and the players often seem to understand it better than a lot of fans do. The players know they have a responsibility. It's part of the job to explain what happened. Tyler Luke did that at age twenty four in one of the most unimaginable moments a player can experience, and he handled it with unbelievable class and grace.

00:16:42
Speaker 2: Due to the week, there's an accountability component that I think the majority respects. You might hear the loud noise on social media like you mentioned, saying hey, leave them alone, or there are many others that say you should be tougher, you should go at them. Well, there's a sense of professionalism that should occur in a locker room work, and that's what happens. And of course what comes to mind is just a few months back, Ryan Kirkering right his teammates embracing him right away. Oriyan stepping up in front of the media. I wasn't in the clubhouse. I think you were on a different series, but same thing. We saw him step up and take accountability and speak about it, and that certainly stood out absolutely right.

00:17:19
Speaker 1: That's why, Yeah, it was a perfect choice.

00:17:22
Speaker 2: Let's get to mine. So I love a little juice. I wish that owners were more transparent about how they're really feeling. And Michael Araghetty, the co owner of the Baltimore Orioles, is just speaking right to what every Orioles fan wants to hear. So they had this economic club in DC. I think it raises money. David Rubenstein, who's the majority owner, was there as well, and they're trying to be a little more candid and open up, right. I think people are giving a lot of money to be there. So Araghedty, a New York native, said you can put this in the paper. I hate the Yankees as much as anyone, and he was drawn to Baltimore because of passionate fans young Core Campden yards whole deal. He is a baseball super fan and that is a way to connect with your fan base. A fan base that was incredibly disappointed this past season, but I think it's feeling much better this offseason. So for me, Ken that's an easy dude of the week. They're doing damage in the off season in a good way, and then they're calling out one of their rivals. If you're a fan, what else can you ask for?

00:18:18
Speaker 1: No question?

00:18:20
Speaker 2: All right, let's hit dork. What do you ask Scott?

00:18:30
Speaker 1: It's been a long time since we called out the A's, long time since we talked about their wonderful move to Las Vegas. But with help from the US Patent and Trademark Office, the A's this week are going to be the dorks of the week. Why because their request for a mark a distinctive mark was rejected by the US Patent and Trademark Office because they feel that it's not descriptive enough from a geographical perspective, that Las Vegas Athletics doesn't distinguish the A's as much as it should. And Josh Gerbin, an attorney, wrote an article about this, explaining how while the trademark is too geographically descriptive, ultimately the A's probably will get the trademark that they want because at some point they will establish themselves in the marketplace as the Las Vegas A's and yes, at that point they will deserve the trademark, but not yet in the Las Vegas Athletics. Anybody wants to make a T shirt with Las Vegas Athletics while this is pending, they can do so. And the A's just for yet another embarrassing misstep here, even if it's not entirely of their own making dorks of the week, why not Athletics again are way in deserving of this honor.

00:19:50
Speaker 2: And Ken may I add that I think this is a sign that even the government thinks they should change their name when they go to Vegas. Right, that is the one thing that I called out that I felt so strongly about. Do you want to establish something new in Vegas and make it feel like it's their team. I've been to Vegas probably four or five times since we've had all of this news about the A's moving there. I've never spoken to someone there that has said we want to be called the Vegas as they want the stain of that whole situation gone and they want their own fresh name. This is another call out, and you know what's going to happen. Nothing, They're still going to be called the Vegas as.

00:20:25
Speaker 1: They say. We were the Philadelphia A's, we were the Kansas City A's where the Oakland A's Now we want to be the Las Vegas Athletics. That's our historic name. But for the US Patent and Trademark Office right now, they can't distinguish that from an athletics store, so the A's remain in trademark limbo hilariously.

00:20:44
Speaker 2: Yes, okay, I'll get to mind quick Perimnajian, who is the general manager of the Angels, who said we made a jump last year and his latest words with the press. I think we were in the top four or five and wins from the previous season. We expect to make another jump this year. Sam Blum does an excellent job covering the Angel and much more for The Athletic. He posted how the Angels record in twenty four was sixty three wins than seventy two wins in twenty twenty five, not good enough, and really I encourage you to read Sim's latest article that talks about Anthony Rendon's restructure contract and how it doesn't appear as if the Angels are going to use that money saved on payroll this year, and Perry was super super coy about really anything. So, Perry, I've known you for years. You're a super nice guy, but you are dork of the week because we just want you to speak a little more openly and more like a dude at the bar asking about how things are. I know, you got to be a professional and keep it tight with the angels. And also, in fairness, Ardi Moreno is not the easiest owner to work for. He might not know all of the answers about payroll. They're dealing with the TV money situation, among many others. But ken for me, the GM speak gets a little bit old, and I think that they get disconnected from fans that way. Just talk to me a little bit more like I'll use some examples Alex Anthopolis, Dave Dombrowski and many others. Right, I just I want to hear you're a little more of the human element when there is a press conference with a general manager so fans can connect. Fans went crazy after that press or yesterday, just like they did when he was awkward about the AC system that was clearly broken because you say, Kakucci had to call it out and it was like an Abbot and Costello, back and forth. So Perry, it's been a couple of these now this offseason. So you're a dork. Bet MGM account holders today, how about an any sport parlay boost token. You can score a bigger payout if your wager with that token. Hits Tokens can be used on parlays and on same game parlays. Gambling problem or concerned, there's help. Call one eight hundred gambler. Hey, when you get a chance, subscribe to foul Territory on YouTube. We are getting very close to three hundred thousand subscribers on the channel and love all of them, so we'd love you to join us on that channel as we break down everything going on across the sport. It is baseball the way it should be covered at foul Territory. Give us a sub.

00:23:04
Speaker 1: Time now for Brill and Ken, the part of the show where I answer your questions. Before we get to the questions, I want to correct one thing where I think I misspoke earlier. Mackenzie Gore two years of control remaining, not three. So two years of control for Gore, one year for Peralta. Remember Shane Bows and Edward Cabrera, they each had three years of control, so of course the amount of control always affects the price that you get back into trade for a pitcher. All right, with that, let's get to the questions. First one comes from Jonathan Newman four four seven four, who asks does the return for Cabrera incentivize the Twins to revisit Ryan Lopez stance Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez given the Twins are barely active despite wanting to win. Well, this is a good question because you're right, as the market shifts, Jonathan, teams might reconsider their positions. But the Twins have been very adamant about wanting to be a better team this year and wanting to keep Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton for that matter, at least for the start of the season and see if they can do any damage in the Ales Central. Now you might say, well, that's all well and good, but what have they done to make themselves better? Good question. We don't really have an answer for that yet other than Josh Bell and maybe a reliever or two. But the Twins to this point, after their injection of money from new ownership partners, they have said that they do not want to trade those guys that they want to at least start the season with them. All right. Next question, This one comes from Frank Marsella, who asked, given the rise in player salaries, is there any consideration to increasing the luxury tax thresholds? Frank, the question here is whether the next CBA, which of course will start in effect twenty twenty seven season, will include a luxury tax at all, or will there be a hard salary cap. The owners, we anticipate, are going to push for a hard cap, more likely, in my opinion, they won't get it, and ultimately we'll have something of the same system in place. Now with regard to the thresholds, if the system does remain intact, Yes, the thresholds I am quite certain, will go up, and they always go up. They've gone up historically, and certainly with the amount of money being spent and certain teams spending a ton of money Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, etc. Yeah, you would need higher thresholds if this system is to remain in place.

00:25:33
Speaker 2: All right? What we got now?

00:25:34
Speaker 1: Can Johnson ninety four was the Lorenzen signing mentioned more notable than usual signing for the Rockies. Glad you asked Can Johnson because we did not mention it. And Michael Lorenzen agreed last night to a one year, eight million dollar deal with the Colorado Rockies with a nine million dollar club option for twenty twenty seven. And with the Rockies, they're not going long term on any pictures. I don't know that any pitcher wants to sign with them long term, but they are in a position where they would like to get a couple of guys short term. And for Michael Lorenzen, who is an a mentally talented guy, this will be a challenge, no question, But you know what, I like it. And the Rockies, if he performs well, can always trade him at the deadline. But for the Rockies this was a step forward. And what's intriguing to me, and the question I want to ask today is are they going to let him hit too? Because Michael Lorenzen can hit, as you remember, especially from his days in Cincinnati. All right, one more question before we run, Let's go Video Game Nation twenty six ken. With the Rockies signing Michael Lorenzen, the Red Sox are the only team not to sign an MLB free agent. Do you think Craig wrestler is on the hot seat if twenty twenty six does not go as expected for Boston, he could be yes, but I would not read too much into the free agent shutout so far for the Red Sox. It's not like they've been inactive. If traded for Sonny Gray, traded for Wilson Contreras, traded for Johann Oviedo. I fully expect that they're going to sign one of the remaining hitters, Alex Bregman, perhaps, Boba Schitt, perhaps, and at that point we can end this conversation about why they haven't signed a single major league free agent. Joel Sherman wrote a column in The New York Post today. Rob Bradford wrote something for weei dot Com just about how it's really at this point too early to scream about the inactivity of these teams that we're talking about. They are going to do things now. Ultimately, if they don't do enough, yeah, that's fair game for criticism. But we're not at a point yet where we can say, oh, these teams are just not doing anything. Give it to all the end of the offseason, which is really Opening Day, and let's see where these teams are.

00:27:50
Speaker 2: Then all right.

00:27:51
Speaker 1: I want to thank everyone for watching and for listening. Foul Territory is next. You know who to watch there. Todd Frasier, Eric krat and Scott Brun Welcoming Royals manager Mac Charo, Clubs reliever Hunter Harvey, and Marque Sports Network Lance Rodzalfki. Stay tuned for that and we'll see you on Monday