432: 10 Trends for Week 7

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ zachareson, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and thirty two of the Late Round podcast on the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. The New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles are set the face off on Thursday Night Football and somehow this game matters and Fandel's Sportsbook is giving you enhanced odds on the game. New users can place up to a five dollars bet and grab either NFC east Side at plus fifteen hundred to beat the other. So download the Fandel Sportsbook mobile app and make your first deposit to get your enhanced odds today. Must be twenty one years or older and president in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, West Virginia, or Indiana. New users only must wager on designated boost market. Deposit required max bonus seventy five dollars at sportsbook dot Fandle dot com. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in Colorado called one hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in West Virginia visit one eight hundred gambler dot net or in Indiana called one eight hundred and nine with it. That's a lot of words got through it. Though. Let's get to these trends. Drew Lock threw at fifteen or more air yards on forty five percent of his attempts on Sunday. He now has a thirty three percent deep ball rate on the season, which is by far the highest in the NFL. This sort of plays into my by Jerry Judy transaction from yesterday. But I also want to add that I forgot to mention Tim Patrick on the show. He's benefiting from some of the Denver pass catching injuries right now with a twenty nine percent target share over his last two games. But the fact that Locke is pushing it down the field, that's good for the pass catchers there. Kenyan Drake saw nine point one percent of Arizona's targets against Dallas on Monday night. Over his previous three games, his target shares were three percent, zero percent, and three percent. A semi problem in that game is that the Cardinals were really run heavy and Kyler only completed nine passes and the matchup was obviously good. That helped Drake in that contest. But this is why Drake wasn't some clear cut sell even while you were buying Chase Edmonds. You have to play probability in fantasy football. This is a great example of that, and Drake at the very least was providing some rushing volume floor each week. Hopefully the target share numbers can continue so you can have more confidence than Drake week in and week out. Now, speaking of the Cardinals, Christian Kirk had a big game against Dallas as well, but keep in mind that he still only saw thirteen point six percent of Arizona's targets in that contest. On the year, he only has a target share of twelve point six percent, and he's only hit a twenty percent share once. I don't think you should necessarily sell Kirk after this performance because they've got a really favorable stretch coming up matchup wise, but do keep in mind that he's not seeing a huge percentage of his team's targets and that's going to limit him each week. Trend fours that Aj Green has seen sixteen deep ball targets this year are targets that have traveled fifteen or more air yards. He's caught one of them for nineteen yards. For reference, Among the eight players with fifteen plus deep ball targets, none of them have fewer than eight receptions on those targets. Now, Green did see a really solid twenty eight percent target share this past week, so maybe things are going to start trending in the right direction. But he's still the third Bengals pass catcher that I would want in fantasy football, behind Tyler Boyd, who I talked about yesterday, and this guy who's part of trend five. T Higgins has seen at least twenty percent of Cincinnati's targets in each of his last four games. He's actually just one of seven wide receivers to hit that threshold in each of the last four weeks. Clearly some players had buys and such, but T Higgins is a stud. I love me some T Higgins, so keep buying him everywhere and in all formats. Clyde Edwards Hilaire continues to have one of the best backfield shares in all of fantasy football. He's one of two backs with at least seventy five percent of his team's running back rushes and a target share above thirteen percent. His numbers to be more exact or seventy nine point three percent and fourteen and a half percent. The only other running back with that type of usage Ezekiel Elliott. Now I'm bringing this up because of Le'Veon Bell. I do have my worries that Bell's gonna take on some of that target share and that Bell's gonna see some of the short yardage and goal line work that would torpedo Cech's upside. But I do think that we'll still see at the very least RB two production from Cech when Bell's around, especially after Monday Night's game. He looks great against the Bills. I would be surprised if he maintained this good of a backfield share, though, even if Andy Reid seems to be downplaying the Bells signing a bit and how it's gonna impact Cech when adjusting for strength of opponent, no quarterback has played under expectation more in terms of Fantasy points scored than Daniel Jones. His opponents have allowed seventeen and a half points per game this year. He's scored less than eleven points per game a lot of people were on Jones this year, and to be completely transparent with you guys, the only reason I wasn't on Jones was because of his opening schedule. Sometimes you get lucky in fantasy football, but he's been bad even when you adjust for that schedule. And by the way, on the flip side of the statistic, Russell Wilson has scored more than twelve points per game over expectation. He's absolutely insane. Trend eight is that Rob Gronkowski is starting to become a thing. He saw twenty nine point six percent in Tampa Bay's targets on Sunday against Green Bay, easily a season high. He's now averaged about an eighteen percent target share per game over his last four and keep in mind a couple of those games have come without Oj Howard, so it makes sense. There's some logic to this. With a tight end position. As bad as it is, Gronk's way more usable right now than we thought that he would be after his start. Every team has run at least ten plays at the goal line this year except the Jets, of course, They've only run two. They've run two goal line plays. This is something that's not uncommon for Adam Gase teams. In twenty nineteen, the Jets were dead last and goal line plays with nineteen. In twenty eighteen with Miami, the Dolphins were dead last with just ten. In twenty seventeen, they tied for second to last with twenty two, and in twenty sixteen they were third to last with twenty six. Say it with me, Adam Gase is bad for fantasy football. The final trend this week is that over the last three weeks, only Joe Mixon, because of his one monster game, and Mike Davis, who's seen awesome usage, have averaged more PPR points per game than Ronald Jones. My stance on Jones has always been and he's fine on the ground, and he's even improved as a rusher this year in my opinion, but he struggles as a receiver and that's why I've been off him in fantasy football. I want running backs who catch passes because it's a very important trait. It's very important, especially in PPR formats Jones, though, so over this time he's averaged over a thirteen percent target share per game. Now, there have been injuries to that backfield, like to Leonard Fournette, but it's looking like the Rojo people are definitely winning the battle of the Tampa Bay backfield right now. We'll have to see how things change when Fournette's back and healthy, but I'd imagine that Jones is still the primary early down guy at the very least. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and of course don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly matchup show.