Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer, and the Start of Free Agency

00:00:20
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, this episode one eight of a Hambor Territory podcast. I'm your host, Brad Roland, coming to you on a Sunday afternoon like a warm blanket and our usual time slot, and I am joined by Scott Coleman. Scott, Hello, are you hey, Brad?

00:00:34
Speaker 2: I'm doing well. We have almost officially hit the start of free agency in Major League Baseball. Maybe by the time people listen to the show, we will have officially begun free agency. But here we are, and hopefully we have a very busy and impactful offseason ahead for the Atlanta Braves.

00:00:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, as we're recording this, it's like, you know, four or five pm Easter Time on Sunday, we are pretty much exactly twenty four hours from the start a free agency, which is five pm Eastern Time on Monday the fourth. We should also set it off the show as we always do that. We are part of the Fault Territory network of podcasts. Please go ahead and check us out in the entire network earlier, but especially Hammer Territory, which is this podcast. Please subscribe on your favorite podcast platforms. We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, We're on YouTube. Like the video there et cetera. Out ratings and reviews appreciated and it's kind of a big time although we're not quite all the way in that. It's kind of a look ahead on this podcast. But first, there were a couple of transactions in the last couple of days, one of which I did an emergency podcast on with our colleague Stephen Tolbert, and that was the train of for Hyesilayer. So I've already offered my opinion, but I have to just see you up here, Scott. Do you have a blazing hot take on more haesel Laier situation or was this kind of what we said with Stephen and I?

00:01:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought you and Steven did a nice job outlining the deal a couple of days ago, and you know, as it became more and more apparent to me and I think most fans that it was going to be really difficult to carry solaire Ozona and Ronald Acunya junior next year, coming off his second knee surgery in three years, pretty much.

00:02:09
Speaker 1: And it's a.

00:02:10
Speaker 2: Shame that Jorge could not play a more serviceable outfield because the guy can still really hit man.

00:02:16
Speaker 1: Yep.

00:02:17
Speaker 2: The idea of having solaire in the middle of the Braves lineup next year with a healthy Acunya and Riley and Olsen and Ozuna and Harris the guy can still really hit, unfortunately, as we all kind of were surprised by when they said, yeah, he's gonna play outfield every night. Yeah, Jorge Hilaire is a DH and it's just you couldn't make the puzzle pieces fit with Ozuna especially. It was tough to It was tough to piece everything together with Jorge in Atlanta. Still, and hey, the Braves saved a few dollars in the process, not even a few dollars, quite a few dollars. And we'll see if they have Griffin Canning and their long term plans, but I think there might be something there, And now the Braves have some real more flexibility with the DH and the outfield now as the off season really gets going over the next couple of weeks.

00:03:10
Speaker 1: We did that show in the afternoon pretty quickly, trying to react as fast as possible. So we didn't know at the time. We still don't know, but we thought there might have been a chance that the Braves might just kind of announce that they were going to move on from Griffin canning at some point and they didn't do that. They still could, but we'll see. And the one thing I did want to say about the deal that we didn't get to mention quite in specific turn, because I think you're right about all of that. You know, I saw a lot of fan reaction, but you know, a reasonable fan reaction that was like, look, this lineup is way better with Horayce Hilaire in it, and I know you said the same. I don't think Steven and Loaugh were disagree with that at all. Like I think it's honestly pretty I don't know if it's likely, but certainly possible that whoever plays starting left field on opening day for the Braves in April is not going to be a better hitter than Horayce Hilaire. So if you just list the players in order, which people love to do with their lineups. People love to just list the lineup, it might look worse, but you have to take it into account, Like his defense was at the point where we don't like to look. Hitting is more important for ninety five percent of vision players in my opinion, honestly, at least at least non catchers and non shortstops maybe, but it was so bad that we kind of agree it could he couldn't be the full time outfitter. So Jerry's out on the deal, but certainly understandable of nothing else. You don't have to love it. It was I saw the other thing that I saw that was in response, and we want program the show with with fan feedback. But it was like, well, this is just a cheap move by the Braves. It's like, not really, I don't think that's going to be the case. And we'll talk about this again later on in this show actually, as we talk about for agency. But I think my operating assumption, Scott, and I'll ask you this, it feels to me that the Braves are opening up flexibility, not trying to save money. And Alex said very plainly on his exit interview, and yes, I understand he's he could potentially be misleading people with us with those comments, but he was basically he didn't even try to equivocate. He was essentially saying payroll is going to go up next. He didn't say flat, he didn't say it might go up. He was like, payroll is going to be up, and that maybe maybe it's maybe it won't. That will come to pass, but for now I have to kind of take that out as war, which means, yes, you saved money on so layer, but it wasn't just to save money. This is not the pirates, like you're trying to use that money else, right.

00:05:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's this weird notion that the Braves are cheap where the Braves don't spend, and I mean pretty consistently they have been in the top five, top ten in payroll the last couple of years. And man, this was more about figuring out a way to piece together a roster, especially in the outfield where there is some legitimate uncertainty with Akunya. It wasn't about salary dumping. It wasn't about it wasn't a one for one talent proposition with Griffin Canning because obviously Jorge Slayer is a better baseball player than Griffin Canning is. But again, I would encourage folks if you didn't listen to that episode about the DH and the outfield a couple of weeks ago. I think you and I and Steve and just kind of talked through it quite honestly, and just kind of came to different conclusions about what they should do. But now I think the big question is does Alex feel like internally they have a good enough outfield with Jared Kelnick and potentially Ramon Loreano and Ronald Acuna Junior whenever he's ready to go, and of course Michael Harris or is he going to go out and add an impact outfielder of some kind to help fill the gap and left field? Are they going to tender Loreano? This was kind of the first domino that needed to follow by trading sol Air, and now it's really to see what the second domino is in terms of what the front office.

00:06:40
Speaker 1: Is thinking with the outfield. Yeah, and we won't put that in full on this show, but you're right, there's a decision to be made there. And even if they tender Loreano, they could still try to upgrade the outfield in some way, Like they could try to turn around and trade them if they wanted to, Like you could do that if they think that they could be positive trade value there. You could maybe be bought from Jared Keelnick. There's things they can do if they want to do that. But there is some uncertainty and there there was always going to be and now it's just kind of different uncertainty after they've moved on from Oresler and that deal again I talked about with Steven. You and I and Steven talked about the situation. So those are still in the archive. If you're a new listener, police go head subscribe to the show and also listened to the back catalog, as they are very relevant discussions at this point in time. Scott, I also want to get into the headline grabbing moves from Saturday. We normally would honestly spring into action with the Mergency podcast, but it was Saturday afternoon, and these two players are also on the team, and they were already going to be on the team, so it's not like a huge splash, but it is very newsy and interesting that the Braves essentially came to two different agreements here with Aaron Bummer and then also with Real Lopez. Bummer is polarizing, We'll say. When Alex said that they were planning on picking up his option, you and I kind of immediately came to his defense on that decision, because Bumber was quite good in our opinion and by the stats last year, and Brace fans don't love Aaron Bumber for whatever reason. But even putting that to the side and just talking about the logistics here on Aaron Bummer. He gets a deal that's two years and thirteen million dollars guaranteed. The big thing is that it's cheap this year, which we'll come back to, but it's three and a half million and year one, and then nine and a half million in twenty twenty six. Previously he had club options for a little bit over seven million this year and a little bit over seven million again next year. Both those are club options, so they're not guaranteed at all. So the basically what happens here is that Bummer took the security of thirteen million dollars guaranteed, which probably was smart of him, I think, and the team gets flexibility where they can pay him less this year, which helps with the books and also you know, basically saving overall over two years if they were to keep Bummer for two years. So all of this kind of goes in on each other. So we'll come back to this second a second with Ronald of Lopez, but Bummer on its own, what do you make of this trend of this part of the transaction, because it was probably the one that was like not cover as much because it was kind of the least amount of change. But Aaron Mummer two years guaranteed. We like Aaron Bummer.

00:09:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we like Aaron Bummer. The front office likes Aaron Bummer clearly by guaranteeing him thirteen million dollars. The only person I'm not sure who loves Aaron Bummer and his opinion really matters is Brian Snitker. Yep, because snitt never went to Aaron Bummer in high leverage this past season, and that was a little weird. Now, I get it. Bummer had a couple of blow ups early in the year, but guess what, No reliever is perfect. You're not going to have eight Mariano Riveraz or prime Craig Kimbrel in your bullpen. And on the whole, Bummer was one of the best left handed relievers in all of baseball. And that's just not you know, my opinion or your opinion. I mean, statistically speaking, Bummer was one of the better lefty relievers in the game last year, and he's had a track record of being successful in the past with the Chicago White Sox. So really, it was pretty clear that the Braves are going to pick up Bummer's option. Alexanthopoulos said as much in his end of year interview, and by guaranteeing these two years, I think it just kind of reinforces that the club obviously likes Bummer. And really the most interesting thing on this and on the Renaldo Lopez deal, is how they have seemingly pushed some of the money back where they are trimming payroll in twenty twenty five. By just the three and a half million this year for Bummer and then eight million for Lopez as well, they've they've cleared some of the deck, if you will, and we'll of course see what that means. But it's interesting that only what two days into the offseason after the World Series, the Braves have cleared anywhere from fifteen to twenty million dollars off the books for next season. That tells me that they're going to be aggressive and try to go out and bid on some really good players. I totally agree, and something that Alex has been very aggressive and doing. I mean, something we've almost forgotten about now. But even with Chris Sale, like they turn an option into geararanteed money, like he's not afraid of guaranteeing dollars to move money around and get creative. And we won't go crazy deep into the payroll situation right now, but there are guys this coming season on the books who will be making more and I would say notably more than they were making last season. Chris Sale is one of them, Schechter Strider is one of them. Sean Murphy's one of them. They all get bumps from their previous last year's salary. They were already baked in, so you got that, you got some big salary coming off the books potentially with Max Freed and Charlie Morton TVD on, both those guys, but they if they leave, that's thirty five million dollars right there that they were spending last year. And then both of these moves for Bummer and Lopez were clearly at least partially motivated by getting their number of cash spending down this year, because Lopez gets the exact same in some respects deal that he already had. He was already owed quote unquote his remaining years were three years and thirty million. But in the previous iteration, the last year was it was a team option for seven million dollars, sorry eight million. And then it was eleven million dollars this year and next year, and then eight on the end as a team option. Now all thirty is guaranteed, so similar to Bummer, they guaranteed him more, but they get less this year. So this year Lopez is making eight versus making eleven, and that might be a game changer. But that could be the difference between between a player or something that Alex is trying to make work. And you know, obviously Lopez was awesome this year. When they signed him, we weren't sure what that was going to look like. We liked the deal, we liked the pitcher, but he had been a reliever. People kind of almost forgotten this now, like he had been a reliever and that was some question, Like people were surprised that the Braids were going to start him.

00:12:37
Speaker 1: It worked out great. Obviously, he was awesome this year, and then he got hurt at the end of the year a little bit. This also could be seen as a bout of confidence for that. What did you make of that aspect of just like further investing in some respects in Ronald of Lopez.

00:12:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that was my real takeaway from the deal, other than the money was that the Braves must be confident that after elbow and shoulder concerns, down the stretch to guarantee that third year on the deal was encouraging. We of course, are not privy to the medical room in the trainer's room, but I think it's only a good sign that they said, okay, we can guarantee this picture three more years on top of what he just gave us, and there's apparently no concern about the elbow or the shoulder. And similar to Bummer, the fact that they have kind of backloaded the deal was interesting for all the reasons we just outlined. It does give Alex some flexibility financially. He has talked on the record in the past about payroll that when the Braves are doing their budget, it's an all encompassing budget. So it's not just what's the salary, what's the luxury tax, what's the signing bonus. It's all one number. And in my interpretation of that, that means that he has cleared roughly seven million dollars between these two arms. If they would have picked up Bummer's option as was, and if they would have just paid Rinaldo as it was, I think it was going to be eighteen and a half million instead, Now it's what twelve eleven? Yeah, eleven, I believe, So again not world changing money. That doesn't mean they're now gonna go get one Sodo tomorrow, but it does again, it leads me to believe they are trying to free up some cash to make some splashes. Is they think we're all in agreement that this team, while very good, has some legitimate holes this winter that need to be filled. And every dollar that's freed up, I mean, all the better. It's going to give you a better chance to win a bidding war, a better chance to take on a contract, whatever it might ultimately be.

00:14:35
Speaker 1: Yeah. One of the reasons I wanted to open with these three moves in tandem, even we already did the reaction on Solare was that that also saved money too. So you put them all all three together. It's to your point, and you're right, it's like a said million dollar savings with just Blumber and Lopez. It's TPD. On Gryffin Canning, it's either gonna be five million, probably in that range, or zero. We don't know yet. But even if they keep Gryffin Canning, they will have saved fifteen ish million dollars in about two or three days from on next year salary just from these three transactions, the trade and the two restructures and again Max and Charlie TVD. But they're gonna they have money to spend because even even the guys who I mentioned before are gonna get raised this year, they're not giant raises. They still are gonna spend more. And again Alex that they're gonna spend more. So, uh, we don't know who it's gonna be yet. One reason we're gonna do this kind of tea up podcast because creativey does begin on Monday. And outside of Soto, who I think the praise, we would love if they signed one So too, he's the only player that's like very clearly out of the price range. I feel like if even even in a shocking move, they could sign some other guys that are free agents that we're not expecting them to sign. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't project them to be in on the top guys other and Sodo So is the only one where it's like I wouldn't stop breathing if they signed one So because it would be it's gonna be so much money. But they can they can uh to you to use an old throwback term, Scott, they can now shop on any aisle.

00:15:59
Speaker 2: Get that, babe, of that that.

00:16:01
Speaker 1: I love it.

00:16:01
Speaker 2: That was like Alex's go to line, like three or four winters ago, like every least single media availability, that was his line. Yeah, I agree as much as I would love one SODA's bat in the middle of this lineup, he's he's not coming to Atlanta, but pretty much anybody else. I could at least see the Braves being interested in you know, do I think they're gonna go and go overpay for Corbyn Burns, who's arguably the best arm on the market. Probably not, but I'm sure they'll make a phone call.

00:16:33
Speaker 1: And I mean they were too to that point. They ran on Aaron Aaron Nola last year. They were the runner up for Aaron Nola, Like if you could demand how close they got. But they were in that to the end. And that's gonna be kind of this. That's the price range that Corbin Burns is going to be in, you would think, So that's at least plausible to me. It's not likely, but it's plausible.

00:16:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, it's uh. I think other than one sodo, everybody at least will get a phone call from Alex, and you never know. Sometimes things break down. Sometimes you think there's a half dozen teams ahead of you and bidding war, and five of those teams decided to pivot elsewhere, and all of a sudden, it's like, oh, okay, maybe this can come together. Same story for Max Freed. You know, I don't think Max is likely to return to the Braves at this point, but if things break down or maybe his market isn't quite what he thought it was going to be. Obviously there's a good relationship there, years and years of you know, good relations between the player and the organization. So we'll see. But I do think again, the fact that Braves and Anthopolis are clearing out some money here so early in the winter tells me that as they've had basically a month to outline their off season plans, they obviously wanted to have some more cash freed up to go and make deals, and that makes for an hopefully exciting off season on the horizon.

00:17:50
Speaker 1: Monday's a really a big day in baseball. It may not mean that there's gonna be giant transactions in free agency, but it's the day that it begins number one. And also and again that's five o'clock PM Eastern time. There are already allowed to talk to their own for agents. Like we saw actually today, Michael Walker resigned with the Royals because he could. He was allowed to. He couldn't go somewhere else, but he could stay with the Ryals.

00:18:10
Speaker 2: Fun story. I know Michael Walker's wife from college.

00:18:15
Speaker 1: Yeah.

00:18:15
Speaker 2: Man, it wouldn't suck for the whole husband to bring home a fifty one million dollar paycheck that that wouldn't be terrible.

00:18:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, like, yes, sir, I'll take that. Three years, he was the we have we'll share our kind of a bunch of names list. He was on my list. Originally I had to I had to go in and to de leet Michael Walkers day because he was like maybe an interesting guy for the Braves and now he just went away, but just to say you could sign it. So the Braves could have been talking to Max Freed and Charlie Morton the next the last several days post World series, they could have been doing that. Maybe they actually did. But now you can talk to extra free agents. Obviously Max is the big one. Will come out to that in a second. Monday is also the deadline to decide on club options. Alex has already said they're playing to pick up Ozuna and Darnault's club option. No surprise there if they do that, we already discussed that and depth. Luke Jackson is a We think it pretty easy to cline at seven million dollars. But that's when they have to decide on by tomorrow as well, and then they also have to decide whey to tender a qualifying offer to Max Freed, which seems like an absolute no brainer. It's just basically put procedural, one year and twenty one million is the qualifying offer. You do that. If you don't know what that is, to go ahead, and if he leaves, you get a comp pick back for him. It will be it will not be a great compick because the Braids are on the tax and that lessens that. But it's one of those things where hey, if Max wants to sign that one year tender, he's free to do so. The Brads would definitely be very excited if he wanted to do that. He won't, but you offer it and then he has two weeks to decide those are all the deadlines on Monday. There's a lot going on, but the big one, of course, is free to see.

00:19:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I'm not expecting any necessarily fireworks in the next twenty four hours. I don't. I don't think you are, either, Brad.

00:19:50
Speaker 1: But well, the Brads are already made a trade and two signings before they even opened. Yeah, it was.

00:19:56
Speaker 2: Really I mean, I don't let me say this. I don't see them doing anything crazy with Marcelo Zuna. I think they'll just pick up the deal that, you know, the sixteen or eighteen million dollar option. I guess Travis Darnaut could decide to retire, but unless that happens, I think Travis will be back with the team next year. And then Luke Jackson just not worth seven million bucks. I you know, that's a pretty easy decline, and so sure, maybe it's not a guarantee that there's no drama on Monday when these deadlines hit, but I think it'll be a relatively procedural day for the team.

00:20:32
Speaker 1: And Alex does like to work quickly. I mean, we joke about this last these three moves already, but even in previous years, like he has done stuff where he'll make two moves on a Monday in November and then he'll do nothing for two months. Like this is he's He's definitely an early in the off season kind of guy. So they could make a splash. But when you're signing external free agents, most guys don't want to wait. I'm sorry, they do want to wait. They don't want to go early because they want to make sure there's a market all these things. But hey, could the nick on Monday? Sure they could, but I think it probably will be probably, not definitely, probably will be picking up those those options, tendering Max and then figuring it out from there. There was actually, before we get to the external guys, we have to do it, Scott, there was a rumbling from Mark Bowman. Yeah, Mark wrote the following Mark bowmanson Mark himark quote. There was also an assumption that Charlie Morton would retire. But the hurler who will return, sorry, who will turn forty one on November twelfth, quote, is leaning toward pitching at least one more season end quote. Okay, Scott, I'm gonna let you talk about this because I've my feelings are well known here, but uh, this is kind of surprising now doesn't mean that he's definitely going to pitch. And Mark's been the only one I think that's been banging this drum. But he's seemingly got a source. So we'll see what's going on there. But Charlie pitching again, could be pitching in Atlanta again, Let's just say.

00:21:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's interesting because I mean, not just one time, but Mark Bowman has mentioned this numerous times over the last ten days or so. Clearly, bo He's been doing it for twenty twenty five years now, he has his sources. He's not just pulling this out of thin air. Charlie Morton, it's an interesting case. If it's anywhere close to twenty million dollars, forget it, he's he's just not worth that at forty one years old.

00:22:21
Speaker 1: Even I would not pitch always twenty million dollars next season, even I famous defender Charlie Morton. And I think that Alex probably will agree with us on that. I would guess.

00:22:30
Speaker 2: But but but if and this is what Bowman also suggested, if Charlie is open to pitching for somewhere in the neighborhood of ten to fifteen million dollars, next year. It's at least interesting the last three years they pulled Charlie's numbers. The last three seasons combined Charlie's ERA, FIP and next FIP all are about four And clearly he's not a front line or an ace anymore. But a four ERA for a pitcher who is made thirty starts the last three seasons, those don't grow on trees. And of course it's a one year deal. You're not committing yourself to seven years to a pitcher where you worry that in year two if his shoulder blows out, you're screwed for five seasons. So it's interesting. I still think Charlie's going to retire at the end of the day, just based on his comments at the end of the season. But according to Mark Bowman, it feels like the door is open. And if Charlie's back for ten million twelve million next season, I maybe won't be like super thrilled, but it'd be fine. And it brings depth to the back end of the rotation. It provides some insurance in case Strider needs more time, in case Sale gets hurt. There's a lot of questions with the s hrotation next year, but it is interesting that that Bowman seems to think that Charlie could be back for yet another season next year.

00:23:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, you brought up last three years. And look, it's fair to note the age, of course, like he's it's very possible Charlie could just be bad next year. That's that's just it's sports, just saying that out loud. At his age, it could happen in any moment. I do think that his demise has been overstated by some because he was not bad this year. He was no matter how bad people thought he was, he actually wasn't. He'd look at the numbers, he just wasn't. He was a perfectly fine fourth fifth starter this year for the Braves, and over the last three years, I believe I will give this up now. He was tied for twenty fourth in the National League in fangrafts war him one pitchers. That's really good over three year period for your fourth starter, fifth starter, Like he's useful. But yeah, and also we all know this, but Alex loves the one year deal, loves it. Loves one year deal, the lack of commitments to that, the flexibility of it. And yeah, I could already tell we already we fight this battle every winter with some fans. But you just have to have more than five starters. And I've already seen people listing the starters like why would they keep Granted Griffin kN And obviously Grifin Canning is not as good as Charlie Morton, but it's similar, like what do they have? What you use? Do they have? I'm like, guys, we saw this year, we see every year. There's always a time during the season where we're like, man, the Braves need to know a pitcher because everyone has that problem during the season. So stacking depth. Alex is big on that. And yeah, if it's one year and ten million, I know what the reaction will be. It'll be very negative. I understand that, but it would for me. I know, I'm the Morton guy, but it'd be perfectly reasonable to do that for one year.

00:25:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, you play one hundred and sixty two baseball games, nine innings a game. What's that math? Like fourteen hundred and something throw in extra innings. You have to cover fifteen hundred innings of regular season baseball every single year, and without fail, you feel good about your pitching depth and then by June you're calling on the third arm in Gwinnett to make a couple of starts. You know, you're alan Winan types, and there is a way to prevent those starts from happening where just puts the Braves at such a large disadvantage. You know, for ten million dollars, that is a reasonable amount to pay Charlie Morton in the year twenty twenty five. Again, man, no one's gonna come on and say Charlie's gonna win Cy Young, or he's going to strike out two hundred and fifty batters next year, or have an era in the low twos. But you're not going to have five rock solid aces in your rotation in a season. And again, for the many questions that are in this rotation, the idea of having some stability with Charlie or a similar veteran on a one year deal is something I think the Braves are going to do whether or not Morton retires.

00:26:33
Speaker 1: Every single year, I feel like we argue for another veteran arm to be at it, and they do it usually or sometimes one more thing on this and Appross will move on. The Braves got a god send from Special Swallenbach this last year that no one could have projected, even if you were as high on him as humanly possible, you could not have projected that as a rookie this year and they still had the following guys make starts in twenty twenty four, Bryce Elder Grant Holmes made seven starts. Ray Kerr made two starts for the Braves this year. Darius Fonce made two starts for the Braves this year. Alan Wyans made two starts with the Braves this year. Hirston Waldrip made two starts. Smith shav made it made a playoff start for the Braves this year. Like guys, it's very evident every year. I believe the final tally was thirteen guys made starts for the Braves this year.

00:27:23
Speaker 2: Wow, yep it Even the best rotations get injured. It's you can never have too much starting pitching. And guess what once the season gets started. Unless you strike gold with the Schwellenbach in the minor leagues, you're basically have your hands tied until the end of July at the trade deadline to get starting pitching help. You know, again, there is some interesting internal options with a j Smith Shavor, I think.

00:27:53
Speaker 1: And Waldrip, and there's all kinds of I mean, they do have honestly, the price have better than average depth in the high miners, but you cannot always expect next year. There is a pretty strong chance that neither Smith Shov or Waldrip is going to be awesome. Maybe they will be, but you don't know that right now. Oh good chance. I mean, Smith Shaver still needs time, if you you know. I always try to listen to the prospect team at Battery Power. They were all pretty much in unison even at the end of the season that Smith Shauver needs more time. He's still working on pitch sequencing, finishing off hitters, location, how to attack a second and third time through. It was kind of a lost year of development, I thought for Hurston Waldrip, especially the second half when he had the shoulder issue and then just really never found it. Bryce Elder, sure, if it's a Sunday afternoon start against the Miami Marlins, it's probably fine. But against anyone better than that, unless Bryce magically adds five miles an hour to his fastball or develops just an absurd slider, it's just not going to happen. He is who he is is Ian Anderson is similarly a lot of questions about him. Schwellenbach as great as he was, just blew past his professional innings high. We're in all the Lopez shoulder elbow concerns this last year, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, we could talk for twenty minutes about the risk that all these starting pitchers have, and that's not exclusive to the Braves by any means. Pitchers get hurt at a very high rate in every single team in baseball. And if you can err on the side.

00:29:31
Speaker 2: Of more depth and more reliability and not having to pray that one of your minor league guys step up, I think it's a worthwhile proposition as long as you can do it while addressing the other holes on your roster.

00:29:47
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to some external free agents. We're not gonna dive deep on these guys, but it's a good time to kind of just say hi, here's what's available, et cetera, et cetera, and people can kind of pick their favorites. We always have guys that we like, I know Scott always has his guys famously, Zach Wheeler. We would have knowed that one, Scott, you're all over that one you would have but would have been a great one. So anyway, and Tonny Gray too is my guy. I am Sonny.

00:30:12
Speaker 2: Hear me out, Brad the same little the same as Cardinals are supposedly gonna cut money and try to get younger.

00:30:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, it could use a starter.

00:30:21
Speaker 2: Sonny Gray only two years fifty million on his contract, Like all right, hear me out, hear.

00:30:27
Speaker 1: Me No, I'm one hundred percent with you. And like, look, we get questions about this all the time, about trade candidates too, and it's impossible. Maybe we could try one day to kind of lay out all the trade candidates. Like that's a much harder task than just say he here are the free agents. But that's a good point you made. It Beyond Sonny Gray being a proactive which I agree with, is that Alex could also address issues with with trades, like he's very willing to do that. I think Shortza's one that we talked about a lot already, and we'll talk about even more in a second, where like it could be a trade, could be a trade for an outfitter, could be a trade for a starting pitcher. We just we don't know, but that is always a I would say undervalued pathway to plug holes or better than that, is that you could trade for you guys, And Sunny Gray is a good name to keep an eye on. I would say, let's start with the pictures while we're on Sunny Gray. So all I'm starting pitching. We just did a whole primer about this about how look, the Brais don't have to sign a huge dollar arm. They may not. I could say, maybe maybe they probably won't even but if they're so in theory, if they were in play for Max Freed, why would they also not be in play for Corbyn Burns or Blake Snell Rookie or Rookie Sasaki or Nathany Evaldi or Sean Manaia. These guys are all like those are varying degrees. But if you lose Max, it's not exactly a hard cell to say, hey, we'd like to get another, even if it's number two versus number one, Like Max kind of has been guy. So those are all the names that are kind of on the top level, along maybe like Jack Flaherty. But those are five or six names that are really interesting top of the rotation guys and they're all built.

00:32:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's going to be very interesting to see what the starting pitching free agent market is because last winter, some guys like Aaron Nola found a lot of money right away, like Nola assigned I think before Thanksgiving and for seven years one hundred and seventy some odd million dollars. But then you had your Blake Snells and your Eduardo Rodriguez and your Jordan Montgomery's who all really struggled to find a market that really developed for them. They ultimately landed pretty good money on like an annual basis, but they were not able to necessarily command the six year deal that I'm sure they were all looking to command at the start of the winter. So we'll see.

00:32:45
Speaker 1: I think the big.

00:32:46
Speaker 2: Three is pretty clearly Burns, Snell, and Freed in some order.

00:32:53
Speaker 1: Well, and Garrett Garrett Cole opted out yep, and I think he might resign with the Yankees. There's some interesting language there the will not dive into, but he would be up there as well if he's actually a free agent, and he wasn't great this year. But Garrick Cole is a capital letter's name, like Greck Cole is a big name is obviously for a reason, the big name.

00:33:10
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah. And you know, in that second tier of free agent arms, there's some some interesting and like legitimately good options in there too, right like Nadi of Aaldi. I've been a fan of you of all these for years, Manayah who you mentioned? Jack Flaherty just came off the World Series. Luis Severino had a really nice bounce back year with the New York Mets. So there's some good kind of second tier free agents. I'm curious to see if the second tier kind of waits on those big three to kind of establish the market. And let's say the Braves or let's say the Texas Rangers, who were expected to go out and be active in free agency, say that those teams maybe miss out on the top three, then do you know talks intensify with the second tier free agents. If you asked me today the first weekend of November, I would think the Braves would be more likely to be in that second tier of starting pitchers. Maybe then you won't have to go five or six years, probably get him for anywhere from fifteen to twenty two million dollars a year. I think that's more of the game, Alex is going to be looking to play. Because we said it a couple nights ago on the show, We'll say it one more time. Paying starting pitchers who are on the wrong side of thirty is a very risky proposition, and I think Alex has shown us he's generally pretty risk averse whenever he can be. And sure, Corbyn Burns is awesome, he'd be really good for this team right now. But the idea of committing yourself to a Corbyn Burns until twenty thirty one or whatever it's going to require, is mildly terrifying for a team that is not completely desperate in the starting rotation.

00:34:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that if they were to sign one of those big, big, big names, it's probably to be Max.

00:35:01
Speaker 2: Agree.

00:35:02
Speaker 1: That's my best guess. That's my best guess. Again, I still think, and you can disagree if you want to. I still think that Max is more likely than not going to be gone based on what we've just heard from everybody for months.

00:35:13
Speaker 2: Now.

00:35:13
Speaker 1: Do you agree with me on that one so far? Scott?

00:35:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do.

00:35:16
Speaker 1: I mean, not definitely or anything. He could come back, yeah, but just more likely than not, I would say, based on the email. I think that's fair. So there's that, and I think if there is a big name, it apply to be Max, which is great. Max Reed is really good. There were there were three or four guys that want I wanted to highlight that are for whatever reason, maybe available for a more modest price tag, either in years or dollars, that I think would be kind of up Alex's alley in a historical sense. Alex likes to do these deals where he's either buying low or trying to fix somebody or whatever. Uh like. He like short term deals. So one of them is Walker Buehler. Walker Buler had a rough yew this year in LA. He has a high pedigree guy. Alex loves the first round pick, a former first round pick, loves that Dueler has been great. He's been banged up at times. He found it sometimes this year. Of course he wasn't terrible terrible, but could be a reclamation project on a high level. One is also Max Scherzer. That might sound crazy. Max Scherzer is one hundred years old, but if you didn't sign Charlie what you probably wouldn't sign Charlie and Max Scherzer. But if you didn't sign Charlie. He is Charlie adjacent. Obviously he was better than Charlie at his peak. But Scherzer is on the wrong side of forty, not even the wrong side of thirty's gott wrong stete of forty. But seems to why I pitch one year deal maybe. And then a guy that honestly forgot was a free agent Shane Bieber, a say, young winner from a few years ago, currently coming off of Tommy John. So he's gonna be out till the summer, probably, but that might brain is price tag down. Maybe he signs a two year deal as a result of something like that to kind of get back on the market. That's a guy. And again you're dealing with TJ. It's not an exact science. You'd be guessed a little bit. But if for a team that doesn't to your point, Scott have this urgent, urgent need, if you can somehow get Shane Bieber and say, hey, Shane, take your ton we'll see in July, that's pretty intrigued. So those are all three different players, but they're all kind of to me anyway, kind of alexy to vary in degrees.

00:37:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you said it perfectly man Like, we have learned that Alex very rarely gets the player that everybody has circled on the whiteboard.

00:37:28
Speaker 1: Yep.

00:37:29
Speaker 2: I mean it's he he thinks outside of the box. I don't think in all of the podcasts we did a year ago, did any of the four of us ever say Chris Sales name. No.

00:37:39
Speaker 1: I mean the only time, the only time Alex has made a move that we all were like, hey, he can he can go, he can go do this was Matt Olson. If Freddy left, Madelson was the logical guy. If Freddie left. We all knew that. But even that move happened in a way that we didn't expect. He did it before Freddy even signed. There was this whole back and forth. I think we want we relegate now about Freddy's agent. That's still driving me crazy. People get that, But that's the only that's the only time he's made a move that we were like, okay, that was kind of foreseeable was if Freddy left. Matt Olsen was the guy. Every other thing that he's done basically has been either you know, once it happens, it's like, okay, that makes sense. But to your point, it's never the guy you expect, and if it's a free agent, it's almost never the price you expect, like he's not gonna pay it. Maybe I'm wrong about the Scott. Has he ever paid sticker price for a guy that was like ap at the top of the market. I feel like he's never done that on any position anywhere, Like it's either an extension on a guy we already have, or he trades for an expensive player like Chris Sale and reworks the contra or whatever. But he doesn't go out and sign for agents for the top dollar like that are external. Has he ever done that even once?

00:38:45
Speaker 2: No? I mean, I think let's think this through. I mean, Josh Donaldson was a one year deal, one year deal, Hanials one year deal deal, you know, Marcelo Zuna originally one year deal when you're deal, he did do a you know, a four year deal, you know, not an extension, but a clean new four year deal with Marcel. Is that the biggest free agent deal? I feel like I'm missing somebody obvious, but is whether we should have prepped this?

00:39:13
Speaker 1: But no, we didn't, and that's and that's fine. I just think that the point it's more than even in specifics like the point stands like he doesn't. He either does these creative trades or short term free agent deals or whatever. And it doesn't mean he can't sign a big free agent for market price. He just hasn't. And so that's why I wanted to circle these three guys. Or even if you want to go to like Matthew Boyd, or you say Acouci is like an older guy that might be Alex, like on a short term deal, there's other guys that are interesting that if you say, hey, is Matthew boy better than Charlie Morton? Maybe I don't know if he is for sure, but he's younger than Charlie and Morton. I don't know. There's interesting like it aust It all comes down on the pitching side, to urgency level. How much? What is Alex's urgency level? Because they know the guys Strutter coming back, but Strata may not be back until May or June. We don't. We just don't know, right And if you lose Max, if you lose Max and you don't know when Shriyer's coming back, you're suddenly very very very reliant on guys that were Austin this year. But an old guy in Sale, a first time breakout guy in swallow back of convert reliever, and Lopez like suddenly you got some there's some fragility there without Max.

00:40:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just say, yeah, there is. And that's a big question. I mean, clearly the three questions this winter, or maybe the three top questions the rotation, shortstop, the outfield. What do they do? Do they make moves on the margins or does Alex plant his flag and make a blockbuster deal or a blockbuster signing. You know, he has been There was a chart that was circulating the other day. I think since he has taken over, Alex Nthopolis has the best trade record of any general manager in baseball in terms of war received versus war given up. And you look at the the Metelsen deal, the Sean Murphy deal, the Chris Sale deal. There are there. Alex has been a very good trader. You know, free agency, he has not dipped his toe into that water quite as much on a high, high level basis. But that doesn't mean that just because he has not engaged in the big dollar free agents in the past, that he won't do it this upcoming winter. So very interested to see how the rotation ultimately shakes out if Max Freed goes elsewhere. I think you really do need to try to add at least like a number three starter to help balance, because yes, if Spencer Streider comes back and he's Spencer Schreider, awesome, he's just that. You're right, But man, there's there are some real questions for a guy who has undergone now two elbow surgeries and he's twenty five twenty six years old.

00:41:52
Speaker 1: And yeah, and even to your point, even if he is himself and we'll go off, this is this is a different topic in some some respects. But uh, how do I say this without it's sounding negative. They didn't get lucky unnecessarily, but they got very high end outcomes on all three of Sale, Lopez and and Schwellenbuck. Yeah. Yeah, like, very very very high level outcomes on all three of those guys. They could do it again, but I am always reticent to expect that on the pitching side in particular. So adding to that, I'm with you, and if Max leaves, they will have to figure something. Then it will have to I guess they could with straight face say we'll make moves on the margins, and I hope special comes back. But I'm going to be on your side of that. On that comment, I think if you lose Max, you need to be a little bit more than on the Margins pitching watch. Maybe it is we're gonna re sign Charlie and we're gonna get one more guy who's a fourth starter and pieces together that way. That wouldn't be crazy if you got two of those kind of late rotation guys versus the number versus one one guy who's a little bit better. But no matter what you do, you got to add if you lose Ma, I think pretty clearly anyway. On the position player side, we talked about Soto before sign me up. Man, it's not gonna happen, but sign me up. Then there's a shortstop position where we talked Actually, I think we did a podcast about this like three or four weeks ago, about William Thomas. There was a rumor there. We talked about that for an hour almost and then Hassan Kim there would be too clear upgrades the shortstop available as free agents. There are trade guys too. I know Nico Horner has been a popular name of the Cubs. There's been names out there, but there are only two free agent shortstops who are like notably better than Arcia, and it's a Damas and Kim Now much to add there, Like those guys would be great. I don't know if they're gonna pay him.

00:43:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you know. I'm curious to see MLB Trade Rumors does their annual piece on contracts for all of the free agents and what they think they're going to receive. But there's been some reporting that the thought is Willia Domas is going to get something in the neighborhood of Dansby Swanson's seven year, one hundred and seventy seven million dollar deal.

00:44:07
Speaker 1: We used that cup on the show, Yes we did, because they we were ahead of our time on that one. Scott, there we go.

00:44:14
Speaker 2: Yes, please please please credit the Hammer Territory podcast. You know, on the whole they are similar players. Dansby better glove, adamis better bat. But do I see the Braves going out and giving Willie Adamas a seven year, one hundred and seventy five million dollar deal.

00:44:34
Speaker 1: No, I don't. I would love it.

00:44:37
Speaker 2: I would be excited for him because he's a terrific baseball player, But they just don't think that's going to be the Braves' solution at shortstop, Hawsong Kim is a really good baseball player. I know Braves fans may not be super familiar with Kim because he's been out in San Diego, but he is a very well rounded shortstop. Great defensively runs the bases, gets on base draws, walks, hits for a little bit of power. The concern with Kim is one he's a Scott Boris client, which I think the only time Alex has acquired a Scott Boris player was No, it wasn't even Alex. I was gonna say Tuki Toussaint was a Scott Boris player, but that was, of course John Coppolola. So Alex really has not entertained much in the way of Scott Boris. The other concern with Kim is they just underwent shoulder surgery and there's a real chance he will not be ready for a month or two or three next season. I don't know if you can necessarily sign that kind of player. I guess you could and then have Orlando orci Hi Beer starting shortstop for a month or two and then go to Kim. So we'll see on those two. But I do think if they are going to make an improvement at shortstop, I tend to think it would be more of the trade route than the free agency route.

00:45:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am with you and everything you said there. I think that if a domin Is price tag is that I don't think it's gonna be the bravest uh. And then Kim, we just don't know about the injury, but I would I would like either one. We'll see Trey could be a possibility there. And then the other spot, of course is corner outfield. I'm not even gonna bring up anybody else. It's like they don't have a free agent need anywhere else. It's just that's yeah, they have there's some really interesting players a free agents, but they're not gonna sign up first baseman, like you know what I mean, like third or third basement. It's just not gonna happen. So or catcher. So you know, corn Field's interesting. There's some depth there this time around, beyond Soto, who's the headliner, but in no order this is you know, Taskar, her Endez Anthony Anthony sent tender from the Orioles Jerson. Profar had a great year, former top prospect that kind of has now found himself. Tyler O'Neill is interesting player that's been like an injury guy, but it's been great when he plays. And then uh, I think for like the fifty year in a row, we'll discuss Michael Conforto on this podcast, another favorite of the free agency of options because he's a left he's a righty. Masher and our colleague Steven Tolbert talk about this all the time. The Braves just don't have enough of those, so that would be a way to go ahead and get like that, not a great defender, but a bat. So that's not even a full list. But there are a bunch of corner outfielders that I think are reasonable starting corner outfielders that are available, And doesn't mean that they're going to sign any of them. They could just keep Loreano and have Loreano and Keelnick again and roll with that. That is not exciting to me because I think as good as Loreano was, he probably is not going to be that good again based on his underlying metrics from this last year. But that wouldn't be completely insane. What I will say this on this front, Scott and we talked of this before, but would it trigger you like It would trigger me if the Braves rolled into the season with both Arcia at shortstop and these corner out filters, because that's that's the one scenario I can't handle. Isn't the going of the year with Arcia at shortstop and then the Loreano Kelnick duo in leftfield at the same time.

00:47:54
Speaker 2: Yes, I would say it is a failed off season. If opening day rolls around and you have a platoon with Kelnick and whoever could be Loreano, it could be another right handed outfielder and Arcia, that would be a failure of an offseason to me.

00:48:14
Speaker 1: On Kim because then he just wouldn't be actually wouldn't be there. But other than that, yes, yeah, yeah.

00:48:19
Speaker 2: So one of those two positions needs to be upgraded.

00:48:23
Speaker 1: For sure.

00:48:23
Speaker 2: I would love for both of them to be upgraded. Frankly, I think the Braves need to add an outfielder because we just don't know about Ron Dacuna Junior's knees. And we have seen now in two years Michael Harris has missed significant time with he had the back issue last year, he had the two month hamstring issue this past season, and you know Kelnick, it was a mixed bag more bad than good. But I don't think you can give up on him. But I also don't think that you can count on him, if that makes sense. So I think they need to add an outfielder of some kind shortstop. I would love for them to move on from Orlando Arcia. Shortstops are really hard to acquire. It's not as if there are ten really good available shortstops in free agency and trade. It's going to be a little trickier to upgrade that position. But I would like to see them add a corner outfielder of some kind for all of those reasons. You just you'd be putting a lot on in the baskets of a healthy Ocunya and count of taking a step forward and Michael Harris staying healthy all year long. I just don't know if you can really bank on all of those happening.

00:49:38
Speaker 1: Yep, we are in agreement there, and again we're sitting on the table a little bit here. We'll have more depth when rumors start if there's anybody tied to the braid that we'll talk about it in more depth. But that is kind of the primer, at least for things opening up on Monday. Scott let me the Breds did actually reclaim an old friend I believe, is it Roy Baer. I don't want to say his name. Selenas who's in the Shawan mark? What's Oakland? In the shaw Murphy trade? He got hurt last year, but a Battery Power Minor League favorites. He is now back with the Brapes. Interesting arm, more of a shot in the dark if anything else. Just want to always note that it was a Newsy item of the weekend. Wait on the list. This is minute fifty of the podcast, so obviously that tells you the impact of that move.

00:50:16
Speaker 2: But hey, another arm, Yeah, yeah, I know the Battery Power guys were excited to have Selenas back in the organization. He has had some health issues, really kind of unclear when he will pitch again, but a live arm, A player who once upon a time, I think, looking back on the Sean Murphy deal, I think Selenas was like the one player in that deal that the prospect guys for the Braves were a little concerned that he could turn into something really good. Like so many young pitchers, it's impossible to predict. It's impossible to guess who's going to stay healthy, who's going to figure it out who's going to take that next step, But we did want to quickly mention they did add selenas back to the organization, and who knows, maybe he gets a call up sometime in the summer to provide a live arm to the team.

00:51:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it could be a bullpen piece too, from what we've been told on what his profile looks like, could be in it could be a open guy. So TVD on that, but at least one more name to throw out there, Scott. At some point this week we might have an emergency podcast or something crazy happens or whatever Max sign somewhere else. You know, any of those things would inspire us to talk again. But in the meantime, working folks, find all your work. As we sign off here on a Sunday evening.

00:51:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I was going to say, if listeners are new, if they jumped on board now that we're Hammer territory, but maybe didn't listen back during the Battery Power days. You know, we do a lot of shows during the off season, and especially the emergency shows are I mean, some of the most fun shows we do all year are the off season reaction shows. Whenever the Braves make a trade or signing, so we will have those. You are absolutely right. We are now in the part of the calendar where we could do a podcast at literally any moment. We'll also do some player review and then, of course, once we get closer to the spring, some look ahead stuff, some predictions, some roster breakdown. But I'm at Scott Coleman at fifty five on x if you want to follow me there. And a big thank you to everybody who is stuck with us even as the Braves regular season wrapped up. We really do appreciate you all being twelve month listeners as we are a twelve months show.

00:52:17
Speaker 1: Yes, thank you for saying that, Scott. If you're finding us on YouTube for the first time as well, just searching or whatever, join us. Please subscribe to the podcast. We do not go away, Alison at all. Some place, some places go dark. We do not do that. We go pretty much wall to wall pretty much every week of the year. We'll have stuffing, maybe not Christmas week if nothing happens, but that'll be the only time that we might skip at least more than a few days on the show. So please stay tuned. Please subscribe to the show. Tell your friends about the podcast. Follow us as a podcast on at Hammer Territory on Twitter, slash x on Instagram, on Facebook, et cetera. If you want to follow me, just hold on hold on side. There's lots of basketball stuff right now, but it is what it is. I'm at BT Roland Scott. Thank you for being here as always, my friend.

00:52:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, brat you as well, buddy, Take care, stay stay sane. With baseball off season, Atlanta Hawks in full swing, NFL college football, it's a NHL. I think soccer is going on. I'm not a soccer guy. It is a great time of the year for sports fans and hopefully you get some sleep. My friend, you're a very busy man this time of year. I have a Hawks game right after this podcast, so things never stop. But hey, thank you for being here everybody. I appreciate it. Without any further delay, we'll sign off now, say to you for more later on this week.

00:53:26
Speaker 1: We'll see you all next time.