693: 15 Transactions for Week 7

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with with your host JJ Zacheras J J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachareson in this episode six hundred and ninety three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Fandel and GMC are back to bring you the GMC Sierra Mountain Climber Pick Them, a free to play contest series that gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in FANDAL site credit every Sunday courtesy a GMC. Here's how it works. Every Sunday during the NFL season, you'll have a chance to answer questions based on the day's one PM and four twenty five PM games. The more questions you answer correctly, the higher up the mountain you'll move. If during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect score, you'll reach the summit and when your share of ten thousand dollars in site credit. The contest series is now live, so head tofandle dot com Slash Free Slash Contest slash GMC to start climbing the mountain. Let's get to these fifteen transactions sell Brian Robinson look Brian Robinson has now played two games since getting shot in an attempted robbery. Given those circumstances, having high expectations wouldn't make that much sense. Robinson just being on the field is pretty freaking amazing. I think everyone's rooting for Robinson here. We've just got to analyze this from a fantasy football perspective. We're trying to win fantasy championships. During these two games with Robinson, he's handled roughly seventy three percent of Washington's running back rushes. He's coming off a top twenty performance against the Bears in Week six. That's not a bad thing, but there are some bad things. He's yet to see a target, and even though he had seventeen carries against Chicago this past week, he still played fewer than fifty percent of the Commander's snaps. And maybe Robinson will only get better, after all, he was shot and then he's played only two games. I don't think that that's an unreasonable take. The problem is we now have a pretty large sample of Washington using JD. McKissick as a pass catching back. Antonio Gibson dealt with that last year and even dealt with it a little bit this year. Antonio Gibson's numbers with JD. McKissick were a lot worse than without JD McKissick last year, and Gibson himself is a problem. Again. What Robinson is doing here is unbelievable. I honestly feel a little bit weird saying anything negative about Brian Robinson, but I have to be honest. When watching that game, Antonio Gibson looked a lot more explosive, and he's been better and expected points added per rush over the team's last two games. Even last week after that Bears game, Ron Rivera said quote, we got a little bit away from Antonio, and that's something I'm gonna put on us coaches. They're gonna use Antonio Gibson a little bit more than they did last week, more than likely, at least sounds that way. And Robinson's most likely not gonna be used that much as a receiver, So he's splitting some early down work and he's not seeing that much receiving work. This is a combination that we don't want in fantasy football. It's why we were fading Antonio Gibson to start the season. The difference between Robinson and Gibson was cost to acquire. It was a lot easier to draft Brian Robinson late than Antonio Gibson in the middle rounds. But now you might be able to capitalize on Brian Robinson. That's why he's a sell candidate. Add Kyrin Williams. So there's a lot of Cam Akers drama going on in LA right now. Jay Glazer believes that Akers has played his final snap with the Rams, and if that's the case, that opens up this backfield because Akers was averaging a seventy two percent running back rush year per game over his last four before this past week. Now, Darryl Henderson's the next logical man up, and he got his chance in Week six. The problem he wasn't exactly a bell cow back. He had okay usage, but he wasn't this true workhorse bellcow. He scored thirteen point two PPR points that was thanks to a touchdown, but he he handled just sixty percent of the team's running back rushes and he was just shy of a ten percent target share. Again, those numbers aren't bad, but it would have been nice to see him with his Week one usage instead. In Week one, he had an eighty percent running back rush share in a twelve percent target shair. I mean, look at his competition. In week six, Henderson was losing snaps to Malcolm Brown and Ronnie Rivers. Brown was signed just a couple of weeks ago, and Rivers is a smaller back who lacks speed. It's just not a good sign when you can't see workhorse numbers with that type of competition. Now, the Rams poor offensive line play, it's well documented. I've talked about it a lot on this show. Everyone's talking about it. But then on top of that, according to my adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed metric LA, running backs have a bottom five schedule from here on out. So where am I going with this? Well? Number one. That's one of the reasons why you may consider selling Darryl Henderson after this week. I don't think a lot of people are lining up to buy him, so it's probably more of a whole situation. But the situ suation surrounding Henderson himself. It's not butterflies and rainbows. And because Henderson isn't some proven back who can absolutely handle this massive workload week in and week out, you might want to look at Kyen Williams. Prior to Week one ESPN's Adam Schefter, he talked about how Williams could be in store for a larger than expected role in that Rams offense. The problem was Kyan Williams got hurt really early in that game. We didn't get to see him, and that ankle injury had sidelined him ever since. But he's supposed to be back soon and this backfield is a mess, so there's a possibility that Kyrien Williams does get some more run. He's some of my prospect model didn't love a ton because he had a really bad speed score. He failed to hit the threshold that the model wants running backs to hit, but his production profile was really good. I liked Kyrien Williams a lot before athletic testing. He can play a pass catching role. But yeah, overall, the Rams don't have a super desirable situation for a running back. Not only is the offensive line bad, but their schedule's not that good either. But the cost will acquire Kyron Williams is not very high. You can add him off the waiver wire. That's different than Darryl Henderson. By Rashad Bateman. I know that you just heard that transaction and you're like, what, why would I be trading for Rashad Bateman right now? Yeah, it's a risky transaction. He's hurt. He's got a foot injury that sidelined him in week six, and according to Edwin Poulross of Fantasy Points, he's likely to return in the week eight time frame, and we don't even know if he's going to be effective when he comes back, so there is risk to this transaction. But here's the thing. Bateman manager is probably pretty frustrated. He was fine in weeks one and two because of a pair of touchdowns, but weeks three and four saw him combined his score just a little over ten p pure points. Since then, he hasn't played. But the thing is, from now through the end of the season, Baltimore has the best schedule for wide receivers when looking at adjustin Fantasy points allowed to the position. They only have one below average matchup for wideouts through week seventeen, and thus far Baltimore wide receivers have faced the sixth toughest schedule. So my recommendation here, don't give up a true starter for a shot Bateman. Throw some bench assets at him. He's a very good young player, and I think that if he's healthy, he should be able to produce in this offense. And that's especially true given the matchups that he's gonna face. Hold Garrett Wilson and drop Elijah Moore. The Jets are a perfect example of how game script can influence fantasy football. With Joe Flacco under center, weeks one through three, New York ran one hundred and six plays while trailing by ten or more points. Since then, over their next three that total is just eleven. They've run eleven plays while trailing by ten or more points. Of course, the Jets are going to be more pass heavy when they're trailing by so many points. In weeks one through three, their pass rate was a little over seventy three percent. Over their last three, it's forty four percent. Because the Jets are winning. Yeah, they're a little bit more run heavy and neutral environments, but they're winning. That's why they're such a massive, massive gap. They're not necessarily winning because of Zach Wilson, but he's been the quarterback when they've been winning, so in turn, his passing volume has been lower compared to where Joe Flacco was at This creates associations in the minds of fantasy managers. Garrett Wilson was awesome with Joe Flacco, but he sucks with Zack Wilson. Now that's not wrong, but it's not necessarily because of Wilson. With Flacco, Garrett Wilson's target shair per game rate was twenty two point five percent. With Zach Wilson, it's twenty two point two percent. It's just that the Jets pass more when Flacco was under center. Game script forced them to, and that resulted in ten point seven targets per game for Garrett Wilson. Over his last three that number is just five with almost an identical target shair. But Wilson's a talented player who's seeing a good target share in his offense. That's not something that you want to drop in fantasy football. Should you bench him, sure, but it's bye week season. Players like Wilson can still be fillins. But with Elijah Moore it's a different story. A lot of you listening to this know that I love me some Elijah Moore. I think he's a very very good player. I was into him this offseason. I thought that he was a good pick. So right now listening to this, you can toss me a giant L. I'm taking the L I was wrong about Elijah Moore. Corey Davis played more snaps than more this past Sunday and more failed to see a target. He's now hit a twenty percent target year in just one game this year. He hasn't even gotten a double digit pper points yet in a single contest, and the Jets have the hardest schedule for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed from now through the end of the fantasy season. They're also playing well. Like I said, game script has been in their favor. More so, while Garrett Wilson's a hold given his workload in this offense, I think more in most leagues can unfortunately be dropped ad Wandel Robinson. Another player I like this year is Wandel Robinson, and we finally got to see him on the field again and he didn't disappoint. He captured a sixteen percent target chair while scoring a touchdown. What made that target share so impressive was that, according to Next Gen Stats, Robinson ran the fourth most routes a wide receiver for the Giants. He had four targets on just eleven routes run, so he was targeted at a very very high rate. Imagine a world where he's not coming back from injury and the Giants use him as a primary wide receiver. I think even better days are ahead for Wandel Robinson. Add Robert Tunyan. Robert Tunyan is still available in more than half of Yahoo leagues. He's trending way up. Entering Week six, he compiled just one game with a twenty percent target chair. Against the Jets on Sunday, he had a twenty seven percent target chair and he saw his best route participation of the season. Remember, guys, Robert Tunyan was coming off an ACL injury from last season. It makes sense that he wouldn't be one hundred percent to kick off this season, and with the tight end position being such a mess, I think he's a great great ad by David Montgomery. Khalil Herbert made an awesome play on Thursday Night against the Commanders, but David Montgomery is still the dude in the backfield. When Montgomery returned from injury two weeks ago, he walked right back into his old workload. I talked about this on the ten Trends episode. He handled seventy five percent of the team's running back rushes and he had a nineteen percent target share. This past week, those numbers fell to sixty eight percent, so seven percentage points lower and running back rush share, and four percent, so significantly lower in target share. The good news, though, is that his broader peripherals did not take a hit. He still was on the field for seventy eight percent of Chicago's snaps in week six, and he ran a route on seventy five percent of Justin Field's dropbacks. In week five, when his usage looked better, he had a snapshare of seventy two percent while running around on sixty five percent ad Justine fields dropbacks. In other words, his usage was actually a little bit better this past week. Yes, his rush share in his target share took a hit, but he was on the field more and he was running more routes. The Bears have had the seventh toughest schedule for running backs and Justin fantasy points allowed to start the season, but it's the eighth easiest from here on out. Now could be a good time to buy into David Montgomery add Justin fields, And speaking of Justin Fields, he's looking a lot better. He's given us a top twelve QB one performance in consecutive weeks, and after averaging just fifteen pass attempts per game over his first three, he's been at twenty three point three over his last three. Chicago's gone from about a thirty percent pass rate to a forty three percent pass rate during this time. That's resulted in more scrambles for Justin Fields. According to Pro Football Focuses data, Fields has twenty three scrambles over his last three games. He had ten during his first three. That could explain why his run fishing yards per game has jumped from thirty two to sixty two. It's counterintuitive, but a more pass heavy approach could allow Fields to get his legs going a little bit more now. The Bears have a tough schedule for quarterbacks moving forward, but in the short term it's pretty average. Over the next month not too bad. So if you need a streamer or you're looking for someone who at least has a shot to be a plug and play option, get Justin Fields. Add Robbie Anderson. So, Robbie Anderson got traded to the Cardinals on Monday, and Arizona likely made that move because Marquis Brown is injured. He's gonna be out for an extended period of time. Now. The Cardinals are getting DeAndre Hopkins back, but they needed someone who could stretch the field, and Anderson can at least do that. Is he gonna thrive in this offense? More than likely not. Hopkins is going to command a twenty plus percent target share. Ron Dell Moore has been heavily involved in that offense as a slot guy. Anderson, though, he's roster in just twelve percent of Yahoo leagues, and it's worth seeing if anything developed with him there. It's not like we've never seen him be relevant in fantasy football before. Add Kenyan Drake and Gus Edwards. So JK dobbins knee evidently tightened up in their game against the Giants this past week. He missed the second half as a result. Kenyan Drake then handled the majority of Baltimore's running back rushes and he finished with nineteen point seven PPR points. So if Dobbins miss his time in the short term, Kenyan Drake is the guy that you want to add, but don't sleep on Gus Edwards return either. According to John Harbaugh, Edwards is close to returning from his knee injury that he sustained last year. He's been an effective back in Baltimore, and even if he's not one hundred percent right away, there's always a chance that his body deals with his return a little bit better than JK. Dobbins's body is. You never know how these guys are going to react coming off an injury. So Edwards right now is an easy stash if you have an IR spot and even if you don't. Because of this Dobbins news, I think that he's still a decent AD. He's just a longer term one compared to Kenyan Drake add Khalil Shakir. So this week's waivers, they're not that strong. You're gonna be forced to make some speculative moves, and I think Khalil Shakiir is a perfect ad with that context. Isaiah McKenzie came back in week six after a concussion that he had in week four, and he played ahead of Shakier as Buffalo's slot guy. Mackenzie was on the field for twenty two more snaps and he saw five targets. Shakir had two. But mackenzie also botched a pitch from Josh Allen and he had some issues with his hands too. He did not look good against Kansas City. If anyone watched that game, you saw Isaiah Mackenzie making some bad mistakes. Now, as I noted before on this show with Khalil Shakir, he was an undervalued prospect in my model, and one of his comparables was Cooper Cup. It wasn't his only comp but it was one of them. The slot role in Buffalo is valuable. You're talking about a starting player in the most explosive passing offense in football, or at least one of them. We could eventually see some change being made. If that happens, Shakir would be very fantasy relevant. Buy or hold Raheem Mostard. Look, I know that you're ready for the inevitable Raheem Mostard injury, but there's no guarantee that's gonna happen. And the truth is he's crushing it right now. He saw season high eighty two percent running back rush here in Week six, and he had more routes run than Chase Edmonds for a fourth consecutive week. He's seen almost sixteen rush temps per game over his last three and this might not stop you guys, Miami. According to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed method, they have the third best schedule for running backs over their next four games, and they've got the third best schedule from now through the end of the season. You might feel like trading Mostard away right now. You might be asking yourself, is this really sustainable? But I'm not sure the market is ever gonna believe in Raheem Mostard. So he could be a really cheap way to get production at a tough position to get production at sell Jeff Wilson. So it turns out a much lower on Jeff Wilson versus the consensus. In my rest of the season rankings, Kyle Shanahan seems to believe that Elijah Mitchell is gonna return after the forty nine Ers Week nine. By that means that San Francisco has two games left before that happens. One of those games is against the Chiefs. The forty nine Ers at least have some chance in that contest this week to hit a negative game script. That's not that great for Jeff Wilson, at least compared to other running backs on the season. Wilson's averaging just a five point nine percent target chair per game. He's not used that much as a receiver, so negative game script not great. After Kansas City, they get the rams LA ranks is a top five matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. They've been good against running backs, So there's at least some chance that Jeff Wilson isn't all that effective in fantasy football over his next two games, and then they hit their bye week, and then Elijah Mitchell is back, or he's hopefully back, So as a result, it may not be a bad idea to just cash in right now and get something for Wilson before Mitchell's back. And if any of you aren't even using Jeff Wilson, that's definitely the case. Add Greg Dolcic. Alberto was a healthy scratch for the Broncos. On Monday Night. Greg Dolcicic finally made his NFL debut and it was a good one. He saw twelve percent target shair, not great but not horrible, and he ran a route on twenty six of Russell Wilson's thirty two dropbacks. He also found the end zone on a big play. It's tough to find a reliable tight end and even though he's a rookie, I think he's worth throwing a dart at this week, add the Miami Dolphins defense. The Dolphins are going to host the Steelers this week. According to Fandels Sportsbook, Miami's a seven point favorite, and according to ad Justin Fantasy points Allowed, Pittsburgh's been a middle of the road opponent for opposing defenses. I think regardless of who's under center for Pittsburgh because Kenny Pickett is dealing with a concussion, Miami's a pretty logical streaming defense that's gonna do it. For today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found in different to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out Lateround dot com, join the Patreon, all that good stuff. Otherwise, thanks for listening. I will catch you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.