850: Week 15 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady B Podcast with your host JJ zacher rethas j Jake zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and fifty of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper Show and had its typical hits and misses, but it was one of the stronger ones of the season. On the wrong side of things was Josh Dopps. He ended up getting benched, Dontavian Wix didn't really come through that we did get hurt in the fourth quarter, and Roshawn Johnson didn't have the role that I thought that he would have. Elijah Moore also didn't see a great target shair with a Marii Cooper active, but Jake Browning and Joe Flacco they were both good streaming options. At quarterback, Juju Smith Schuster had his best outing of the year, Tajy Spears scored seventeen point eight PPR points, Isaiah Likely and Kate Otton both on the end zone, and Chase Brown had a big day. I'd honestly take that kind of each week, and I hope that I can get those results for you during these very very important playoff weeks. Let's get to it. We'll kick things off by looking at players roster between ten and fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and as usual, we'll start at quarterback. I'll just be real with you, guys. I don't think the quarterback streaming choices this week are very good. I don't think they're in amazing spots. Everyone will understandably want to play Jake Browning, and I think he's a fine enough play, like a mid QB two play, but I have some concerns. So instead of just sitting here and saying, hey, Jake Browning's been great the last couple of weeks, I want to give you the downside of Browning, just so that you have both sides when making your decision. Browning faced two top ten advantageous matchups over his last two games, and that's why adjusted points allowed. He also scored a rushing touchdown in both of those games. That's not something that we can confidently bank on. And he's also seen a high number of yards come on screens. Minnesota hasn't allowed a QB one per fo foremant since Week five. That's who Browning gets this week They're a bottom ten opponent by justin fantasy points allowed. Browning has the weapons, he has a good offensive environment, but I don't think that it's all butterflies and rainbows. I've seen him discussed with like Matthew Stafford and Sam Howe this week. I'm far more comfortable with those two quarterbacks, more so than Browning. He's still an okay streamer though, because there's really not a ton out there. Gardner Minshew's another one who's sure he's fine. He can come through with an ok performance, but like I said on fifteen Transactions, I'm not sure the ceiling's there regardless. Minshew gets Pittsburgh, the Colts of the eleventh best implied team total on this week slate, and the Steelers are coming off a game where Bailey Zappi finishes the QB seven. Again. I don't love Minshew necessarily, but I think he's fine if you're struggling at the position. Next up, Joe Flacco. I think all three of these quarterbacks are sort of in the same tier this week. Chicago's the best matchup on paper of the group, ranking fifteenth and adjusted points allowed for quarterbacks this year, but they've looked better defensively over their last few games, so there's a little bit of a concern there. Flacco has been competent in this offense, and Cleveland has an implied team total according to FANDLS Sportsbook that's above twenty, so it's not a horrible situation in today's landscape. Now, moving on to running backs. At the time in this recording, Ty Chandler's percent roster number on Yahoo is still well below fifty percent. Alexander Madison's banged up, though he may not go this week. At the time of this recording, I don't know for sure if Madison's gonna go or not, But if he doesn't go, Chandler would be in store for potential fifteen touch day and he gets the Bengals and that rush defense ranks in the bottom ten this season and rushing yards over expected per rush allout, I'd anticipate some receiving work for Chandler two, so he's a good play if there's no Madison. Now, moving on, let's talk a little bit more about Deontay Foreman. I had mentioned on the fifteen Transaction Show on Tuesday that Foreman was the one in that Chicago backfield this past week, and that's true. He had a seventy three percent running back rush air and almost a ten percent target share. Foreman's row participation was at a season high forty four percent in Week fourteen. He obviously has a tough opponent this week against Cleveland, but from a volume perspective, he might be okay enough in the flex. I'm also gonna bring up the Chiefs backfield again if Isaiah pacheck Go's out. I'm leaning more towards Clyde Edwards a Lair this week than Jerck McKinnon because Ceh out touched McKinnon last week. McKinnon's looking more like the pass catching threat, maybe the goal lineback. But we may not see the Chiefs in a negative game script against New England, so that leads me to believe that it's a better script for Clyde Edwards a Laire. I do think it's unbelievably close, though I'm not sitting here saying that it's very obviously ceh and because of that, I think both of these guys are in play. I just very very very slightly prefer Clyde Edwards a Laire if pacheck Go's out now wide receiver I'm gonna cheat a little bit here. Josh Downs is rostered in a little over fifty percent of LEA, but I want to mention him because he's in such a great spot against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have surrendered by far the highest yards per route run rate out of the slot. They are horrible against slot players. Josh Downs has run eighty two percent of his routes from that area of the field this year, and while he hasn't seen great target shaars over his last two his route participation has been in the seventy nine eighty percent range. That's where it's been most of the season. He hasn't scored double digit PPR points in five straight games. That's partially due to injury, but it's still somewhat of a red flag. It's still somewhat of a concern. Even still, I think this could be the week where he gets back on track. Zay Jones is a tough matchup against a Ravens team that's been the seventh worst matchup for wideouts this year by justin points allowed. But as I talked about in the fifteen Transaction Show, Jones is seeing more work without Christian Kirk over his last two, he's seen target shairs of twenty and a half percent and twenty eight point six percent. Now, the production really hasn't been there, but the volume has been, and Jones is primarily a perimeter receiver. The Ravens ranked twenty fifth and slot target share allowed, meaning teams are targeting the outside against them at a higher than average rate. So Jones is fine in a deeper format this week. Noah Brown works too. If CJ. Stroud ends up playing, I'd be less inclined to use them with Davis Mills, but if CJ. Stroud goes, I don't mind Brown he gets Tennessee. The Titans are a top five matchup for wideouts by just ap points allowed, and Nico Collins is likely out this week. That would give Brown a higher than normal floor. And yeah, I know, Noah Brown has put up back to back goosigs. That's a very scary thing. But keep in mind that his route participation over his last two has been eighty eight percent and eighty percent, and without Collins those numbers might be even higher. He also saw an eighteen and a half percent target share just last week. De Mario Douglas is back. He's still rostered in only eighteen percent of leagues, despite a twenty four percent target share per game rate over his last five. The matchup this week is an amazing against Kansas City, but if a negative game script hits, the Patriots might throw the ball more than usual, so he's a nice volume base play. Now. Tight end's a little bit rough this week, but I don't totally mind Logan Thomas, mostly because of the matchup. Thomas himself hasn't been all that great over his last two He's combined for just five and a half PPR points. His target shairs in those games nine to four and a half percent, but his rale participation it's still okay at about sixty three percent. And he gets a RAMS team that's been the third best matchup this year by justin points allowed to tight ends. And then there's also Chigaconquo in this year. Chick gets Houston and the Texas have allowed the second highest adjusted target share to tight ends this year, so teams are targeting tight ends at a higher rate when they face Houston. Chig has also scored higher end tight end two numbers in each of his last three, and he saw a strong seventy five percent rale participation in Week fourteen, so I don't mind a conquo this week. The next tier players consist of guys rostered and zero to ten percent of Yahoo leagues, so they're desperation plays. Mostly. We'll start with a quarterback, and that's Nick Mullins. I don't feel great about it, but Mullins is in a good spot against Cincinnati. The Bengals have been a top half opponent for quarterbacks this year and adjustin points allowed, and Mullins has a decent supporting cast as long as justin Jefferson's okay, Cincinnati's below average and pressure rate their first and air yards per attempt allowed, and they're below average in passing EPA per drop back allowed. Look, it's insanely risky. I can't imagine playing Mullins in the playoffs in a single quarterback league, but at least the spot that he's in, it's okay. Next is the Raiders running backs. By the time you listen to this, you might know exactly what's going on with Josh Jacobs because they play on Thursday night. I don't know for sure right now, but if he doesn't go because of the injury that he's dealing with I think Zamir White's a pretty decent play. Like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode, I'd anticipate White being the early down in the goal line guy while seeing some work through the air, and then a mere Abdullah, who's also a sleeper, he would see the pass catching work. The thing is Vegas is set to be in a low scoring game where they could see a neutral or positive game script, so that would favor Zamir White. In my opinion, I prefer White because his touch projection is just stronger than Abdullah's. It's a plus matchup two with the Chargers surrendering the eleventh most adjusted points to running backs this year. Now, another injury that's up in the air is with Brian Robinson. He didn't practice on Wednesday after suffering a hamstring injury the last time that we saw the Commanders, which would mean that Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez would get a bump if Robinson were sidelined. If you're choosing between those two running backs, I would definitely choose Gibson. He would hypothetically see more early down work, and we know that he can see work out of the backfield as a pass catcher. But here's the thing, Washington's not competitive. They might want to see what they have in Chris Rodriguez. That's more of a subjective feeling thing, but it's true too. There's a possibility that they go that direction without Robinson. Maybe they would give him some higher value touches. He's a bigger bodied back who's capable of handling a big workload. So Antonio Gibson would be the play if Brian Robinson's sidelined. But don't sleep on Chris Rodriguez either. And that game environment against the Rams, it actually could be decent. Now, speaking of that game to two at Well is currently in concussion protocol. DeMarcus Robinson's coming off a game against Baltimore where he ran a route on ninety eight percent of LA's dropacks. He ended the day with a twenty six percent target shair. Now he's going to face his second best matchup for wide receivers by justin fantasy points allowed. So DeMarcus Robinson makes a ton of sense this week as a deep sleeper. I mentioned Noah Brown earlier, but I'm a little bit intrigued by Robert Woods this week too. His teammate. The Titans have allowed the sixth highest target share this season to the slot, and Robert Woods has lined up in the slot on a team high fifty four percent of his routes run without Nico Collins. Like I said in the fifty Transaction Show, we're likely going to see a rotation of wide receivers for Houston. I still believe that, but Woods is likely going to play a lot in the slot. Last week without Collins. For a lot of that game, he was at a fifty six percent slot rate. Now, I don't know if his ceiling's really high, but if CJ. Stroud is active, I don't mind Woods. One player I was close to mentioning on the fifteen Transaction Show this week was Michael Wilson. He's been practicing so far this week and Hollywood Brown at the time of this recording, he hasn't. Not only could that boost Michael Wilson's target share, but he's also facing San Francisco, and for what it's worth, the forty nine Ers were the team earlier this year that Michael Wilson crushed. He scored twenty six point six PPR points against them. That was his best outing of the year, but before going down with his injury, Wilson had seen target shairs of fifteen percent, seventeen percent, and nineteen percent. He's also played exactly one game with Kyler Murray and that game was where he had that nineteen percent target share. So I think Wilson's a deep play in general, but he could see an even bigger target share if Hollywood Brown is sidelined. I really like any of the healthy Packers wide receivers this week, so do note that the Buccaneers secondary has been really bad, but they haven't been great against tight ends either, and that's where Tucker Craft comes into play. Kraft has seen an eighty percent route participation in two of his last three, and he hit a double digit percentage target share in each of his last two. Tampa Bay is the eleven best tight end matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed, and they've given up an above average target share allowed to tight ends two. So you could look at Kraft as a streamer and some of the deeper Packers wide receivers if you'd like too. And then I'm gonna repeat the transaction from earlier this week with Davis Allen. Allen saw a thirteen percent target share, and he ran around on sixty three percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks last week. Now he gets a plus matchup against Washington, so if the tight ends around him are banged up officially, Allen's a fun super deep play at defense this week. I'm pretty prize that Vegas is still rostered in just fifteen percent of leagues. They've been a top ten defense and five of their last six, and they face East and Stick as favorites on Thursday night, So I think they're definitely in play as a streamer. And you could even go in that same matchup and use the Chargers on the other side. The over under in this game is super super low, and the Raiders have a lot of top six defensive performance and three of their last four and five of their last seven. Now, you could also go with Atlanta against Carolina, the Rams against the Commanders that they're still out there. Remember the Rams have a really good fantasy playoff schedule. And then a little bit deeper, you've got the Bengals against Minnesota. I may like Nick Mullins as a super deep sleeper, but we know that that situation can go south. And then Indianapolis is a pretty strong play against Pittsburgh as well, if they're available. With all the quarterback injuries across the league, finding a defensive streamer it's not as difficult these days. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fret to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone really appreciate it. I'll talk to you tomorrow with a new Late Round Perspectives episode, but first there's gonna be a mailbag episode that drops talk to you then