283: Week 3 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachariesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode two hundred and eighty three of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the Fan Duel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I'm not all that proud of the matchups breakdown from last week. I mostly talk about fringe players on this show, so having like a sixty or seventy percent hit rate, that's great, but last week it was closer to fifty percent. There were some hits like Carlos Hyde, Josh Allen, Mikoel Hardman, and some of the other rookie wide receivers, but I like Derek Carr and he flopped, Big Ben got hurt, Kenny Galladay showed up in a tough matchup. It's just one week and it could have definitely been worse. But the recommendations can't be that mediocre week in and week out. I'm aware of that, and I'm ready to rebound here in week three. Before digging into this week's matchups to see who I'm high and lower on versus the consensus. I wouldn't let you guys know that. We've got another Fandel free play for all FanDuel podcast listeners to enter and have a chance at a Number five Premium subscription. Just head to fandel dot com slash League slash Gym. Go there, make your lineup, and then submit it. That's Fandel dot com Slash League slash Jim. If you win, you'll get a free subscription to Number five Premium. Go give it a shot. It's a lot of fun. So given all the quarterback injuries across the league, we've kind of got an s show at the position in Week three. But my favorite sort of traditional streamer who has rostered in less than forty percent of leagues entering this week, it's Josh Allen, someone that I liked last week. Cincinnati's defense isn't good. That's who Josh Allen's going to be facing. We saw that on full display in Week two against San Francisco, and now, despite the fact that they faced the fewest pass attempts in football, Cincinnati still ranks twelfth and fantasy points allowed to the position. And then there's Josh Allen, who's essentially been a top five fantasy quarterback since the end of last year. He now has sixteen plus rushing yards in every career start. He's an easy plug and play guy this week who's a top ten option at the position. I think Jamis Winston is a good play this week as well. The Giants now been beat up in back to back weeks against Dak Prescott in the aforementioned Josh Allen, and Jamis looked a lot better in Week two against Carolina. He was sort of a game manager in that game, but he still looked better. He didn't throw a pick, and he completed over sixty four percent of his passes. Though, and he now has the fifth highest average depth of target in the NFL through two weeks. That should come in handy against the team that's now allowed the third most deep ball plays in football to start the year. So I think you could do worse than Jamis here in Week two against the Giants. He's a very firm QB two and potentially a lower end QB one. Now, if you want a deeper play at the position, I actually think that Mason Rudolph is in play. Vandel's sportsbook has the Steelers is six and a half point underdogs this week, which makes sense since they're playing in San Francisco with their backup quarterback. But Rudolph showed some promise last week in relief of Ben Roethlisberger, and he wasn't a to throw the ball down the field. He had four attempts to win fifteen or more air yards, which is the same number as Marcus Mariota throughout the entire season. Now, obviously, Rudolph's only played a portion of a game and Marcus Mariota has played two games. San Francisco's defense has played well so far this year, but they've also gone up against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Those are two teams with questionable offensive lines. Pittsburgh may have more success keeping Rudolph upright, which will be big because San Francisco currently ranks seventh in sacks, twelfth in quarterback hits, and third in tackles for a loss. I actually like Mason Rudolph more than Andy Dalton and Derek Carr this week. He's risky, but in a deeper league, I think that he could be fine. Speaking of Andy Dalton, I think that he's a clear bench. In Week three, Cincinnati's been throwing the ball at the highest rate in the league by far, but they'll face a good Buffalo defense in Week three that currently ranks fourth best and adjusted net yards per attempt. Now, they haven't faced stellar quarterbacks, but let's not pretend that Andy Dalton is in some tier with Tom Brady. This game is in Buffalo and the Bengals are about a touchdown underdog. So even though Dalton's been good to start the year, I do think that you can mention he's at least not a streaming option. I also don't think that we should feel as confident about Carson Wentz as his current top ten ranking over on Fantasy Pros. Deshaun Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey could both be out in this game against the Lions, and they likely will be out. That leaves the starting wide receivers as Nelson Agalore, jj R, Sega Whiteside, and Mac Collins. That's a lot of inexperience in Nelson Agalore. The matchup's not bad, but it's also not incredible. Against Detroit, They've been kind of middle of the road of giving up fantasy points so far this year, and that's after facing Kyler Murray and Philip Rivers, and they do have good pieces on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles are at home and that's a plus, But I don't know how you can feel top ten confident with Carson Wentz this week. DeVonta Freeman's definitely disappointed to start the year, but he did face the Vikings in Minnesota in a game that got away from the Falcons, and then a good Eagles front in Week two. The matchups haven't exactly been easy for Devonte Freeman, and his peripheral numbers haven't been bad. He's eighteenth in the NFL and percentage of team snaps played, and through these two weeks he's nineteenth and running back rushing share in twenty ninth in target share, He's just one of twelve running backs this season to have seen sixty six percent of his team's running back rushes and nine percent of his team's targets. Given that usage, things could hit for him in Week three. Atlanta getst the Colts in a domed environment in Indianapolis this week, and so far this year, only the Dolphins and Bengals have allowed more fantasy points to running backs. Small sample size, I get it, but we at least know the matchup is easier on paper than what Freeman's seen against the Vikings and Eagles. I think it's a week that you can confidently start DeVonta Freeman as your RB two. I like David Montgomery a little bit more than consensus as well. This week the row was pointing up usage wise for Montgomery. He went from handling fifty five percent of the Bears running back rushes in week one to seventy two percent in week two, and his target share rose by nine percentage points as well. And he saw the team's goal line work last week, so there's no question who's going to be the back to punch the ball in when they're close to the end zone in a likely positive game script against Washington, I think that he's a pretty strong play. And then there's Frank Gore, death taxes and Frank Gore having a usable week in fantasy football, those are the only certainties in life. But Devin Singletary's dealing with the hamstring injury, and Gore has already been used at a high rate to start the year. He's had seventy three percent of his team's running back carries in each of the first two games. If Singletary's sidelined, he should put up some decent fantasy points in a cake matchup against the Bengals. So let's look at three running backs I'm lower on versus the consensus. Starting with some of that I always seem to be lower on, and that's Adrian Peterson. He found the end zone last week to help his fantasy day, and he actually saw a pair of targets, which was kind of surprising, and his weekly running back rushing shot was a solid seventy seven percent. The problem was Washington didn't run the ball a whole lot with their running backs because they trailed in the game. They ran thirty four plays while trailing last week, which was an above average number, and Peterson only played twenty nine percent of their snow as a result, and we could see something similar this week against Chicago, who's a four point road favorite. At the very least, the matchup itself isn't very good for Peterson. It would be hard to trust him, especially in a PPR format. Now, Peterson is kind of an easy choice to be lower on this week. So I'll give you two usual starters who I think could end up underperforming. The first is Josh Jacobs. Last week, we watched Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington still receiving work from Jacobs in a negative gamescript against the Chiefs. Now, Jacob is a little bit hurt with a groin injury and he missed a little time for that in that game against the Chiefs. But this is definitely something to monitor and be afraid of moving forward with Josh Jacobs. And that's despite the fact that he came out of school as a good pass catcher and the matchup isn't great against Minnesota, and that negative game script could hit once again. So because of the injury and this whole issue with negative scripts, I'm lower on Jacobs than most are this week. The other guy is James White. He fortunately found the end zone in week two, but I'm not sure how confident we shuld feel about a guy playing thirty percent of his team snaps while seeing fewer than ten percent of his team's running back rushes. Now White's game is through the air. I totally get it, but the Patriots are also massive favorites over the Jets, so a heavy air attack wouldn't make a lot of sense, Meaning his seventeen percent target share is going to look less attractive if they throw the ball like they did in Week two, where they didn't even hit thirty pass attempts. James White always has a high floor in PPR formats, but I'm not sure where the ceiling is gonna come from here. In Week three, one of the most intriguing games this week for fantasy is Carolina at Arizona. So far, through two games, no teams are running at a faster pace per play than the Panthers and the Cardinals, So when you combine those paces in the same contest, you get a whole lot of plays. Now, Cam Newton may not go at the time of this recording, I have no idea, but even if he doesn't, I still think that you can play Carolina wide receivers. DJ Moore is the obvious go to, but I don't think Curtis Samuel is a bad option either. Arizona's secondary is bad right now. They've given up a top twelve net yards per temph rate to Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson, and they've allowed the most completions on throws that traveled fifteen or more air yards this year according to Number five's expected points model. They've got the ninth worst pass defense in the league, and that's all adjusted for strength of schedule, So the pace of this game in the matchup still have me on Carolina wide receivers. That's even if Cam Newton doesn't go now two wide outside. They think that you could go with if you're in a pinch, are jj R, Sega Whiteside and Devin Smith. Let's start with our Sega Whiteside first. My prospect model really liked him, so I probably like his potential in week three more than most analysts. That's assuming that Alshon Jeffery and Deshaan Jackson are indeed sidelined. But in Week two, our Sega white Side ran just one fewer route than Nelson Agilore did. And everyone's excited about Agalore. It's just that our Sega Whiteside didn't see the production or volume that Agalore saw and even what Mac Collins saw. But he's talented and he's a monster scoring threat. With a wee of practice with the ones, he could come through with a sneaky nice day in week three. Again, this is more of a desperation thing, and I do think that Agalore is the safer option this week. Meanwhile, Devin Smith is stepping in for an injured Michael Gallup and he'll likely see a lot of the wide receiver snaps on the outside for Dallas while Randall Cobb hangs out in the slot. And it's an advantageous matchup against a Dolphins team that's been absolutely torched the last two weeks. So Smith, to me, is an obvious undervalued player this week. Given where he's being ranked. He's a big play waiting to happen. Now. On the other side of things, I don't know how you can confidently play DDE Westbrook right now. He's got a lower target share than both DJ Shark and Chris Conley this year, and he's got an average deth of target that's like three freaking yards. That's according to airyards dot Com. That's ten yards lower than the other two starting wide receivers. Westbrook has also played eighty six percent of his snaps from the slot, and to the first two weeks of the season, only twenty five percent of targets against the Titans have gone to players in the slot. That's one of the lowest rates in the league. So to me, he's an easy sit and he's probably droppable in a lot of leagues. Right now, he's still being ranked as a high to mid range wide receiver four, but I don't really see it. Terry McLaurin has gotten off to a hot start, but it's really tough to be bullish on the Washington passing attack against Chicago. I know Emmanuel Sanders did his thing against them last week, but he's the only wide receiver through two games to have ranked higher than wide receiver fifty seven against the Bears. With a low imply team total. McLaurin can find your bench this week in almost every format. And then I just want to give a shout out and say that I would not be playing any New York Jets wide receivers this week. Le'Veon Bell is the only Jets player that I would have in my lineup. Not only is it a huge risk given who's under center, but New England's one of the tougher matchups that you can find for a wide receiver in the entire league. So even though Robbie Anderson saw a little bit of work with Luke Faulk last week, there's no way that I would put him in my starting lineup. So this week at tight end I've got two streamers for you. The first one is Gerald Everett. Tyler Higbee has a bruised lung and that them out of the second half against the Saints on Sunday. Gerald Everett ended up seeing five targets in that game, with three of those coming in the third quarter alone when that game was close. So if Higbee can't go, Everett is the clear cut top tight end for the Rams in a matchup against the Browns and Cleveland. If you recall, they were beat up by Delaney Walker back in Week one, so Everett does have some interesting streaming appeal, and I don't mind Noah fan. Through two weeks, Fant ranks seventh in routes run at the tight end position according to Pro Football Focus. Now that's partially because Denver's tied for seventh and pass attempts. They're always trailing, or they have been through the first two games of the season, but that shouldn't be a whole lot different against Green Bay this week as more than one touchdown underdogs, so fans a deep playof obviously, but tight end is a dumpster fire and he's at least out there running routes. I talked about the Tampa Bay defense on this week's fifteen Transaction Show, But with Daniel Jones now starting for the Giants, they're not in as favorable as a matchup. As weird as that sounds, I do like Packers, though. I just mentioned how the Broncos are pretty big underdogs in that game in Green Bay this weekend, which means a negative game script for their offense, which means a lot of passing for Joe Flacco, and that's a good thing. In Week one, the Raiders were able to get to Flacco three times. Last week, Chicago sacked him twice. Now, he's been pretty conservative with the ball, given his fourth lowest average depth of target in the league, but the Packers at the very least provide a nice high floor this week. You could look San Francisco's way as well. The things I said about Mason Rudolph are all true. I think that there's upside there, but you also have to recognize the downside, which is the fact that he's a backup and he's never started a game in the NFL. The forty nine Ers have seven sacks and four picks in their first two games too. They faced Jamis Winston and Andy Dalton, but let's not pretend that Mason Rudolph is some lock to be better than both of those quarterbacks. The Niners are at home and they're pretty big favorites. That's what you want from a streaming defense, so I do think that they make a lot of sense this week. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you guys for listening. If you've got to ride to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, talk to you tomorrow with the Mailbag Show.