Becoming a Best Ball Bro: How Important Is Uniqueness?

00:00:00
Speaker 1: All right, JJ, Pittsburgh's long national nightmare is over. Gin's got a new quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. How you feeling?

00:00:10
Speaker 2: Look, as people know, I'm born and raised Pittsburgh, so I am close to the Steelers team.

00:00:17
Speaker 3: I'm probably more.

00:00:18
Speaker 2: Optimistic than most just because I think you can tell a story that Aaron Rodgers, you know, tears achilles. Then he's playing in a season off an achilles in a kind of weird offense, so maybe he still has maybe one season left in him. So maybe I'm a little bit more optimistic than the rest.

00:00:33
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, it's still, you know, an aged Aaron Rodgers. But how are you feeling about this?

00:00:40
Speaker 1: I say, good written, and say, a Ron, I hope you take Allen Lizard with you.

00:00:45
Speaker 2: I'm JJ, And last year I tried my hardest to become a best ball bro I drafted over five hundred teams. I talked to some of the most successful best ball players in existence, and I admittedly had mixed results. So this year I'm going to chase that title once again. Plan is a Max Enter DraftKings millionaire maker, and I'm going to document all of it while talking to the brightest best ball minds on the planet. Last year I didn't quite get there, But this year this is going to be the year where I officially become a best ball bro.

00:01:27
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00:01:29
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00:02:28
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00:03:07
Speaker 3: To the show.

00:03:10
Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best Ball bro I'm JJ Zacharison joined as always, but my co host Rich Ryan Rich, what's going on?

00:03:19
Speaker 3: Man? JJ?

00:03:20
Speaker 1: Everything's great? Just enjoyed a long weekend in Vegas with the family, saw some longtime friends, played some poker. Now back at it here in Socow. But a great weekend away, what about you.

00:03:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I went to the beach this past weekend for a wedding and I got a little son on my face. Hopefully, hopefully the the YouTubers can see that I did touch gras well, touch sand, didn't touch grass.

00:03:44
Speaker 3: I was, I was, I was.

00:03:46
Speaker 2: I was best ball browing from the beach, which U is not as easy as you would think.

00:03:52
Speaker 3: Just are you? Like, I'm not that big of a beach fan.

00:03:55
Speaker 2: The sand just getting everywhere and like it's just you know, you're all sticky and nasty Like I when I go on vacation, a beach vacation with the family, like I need to be.

00:04:03
Speaker 3: I need to have like a pole situation with it. I can't just be at the beach.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: I definitely need a plan. There needs to be a plan taking off the sandals and then there for sure needs a plan, especially with the little one running around to when you get off the beach, I need a clean pair of sandals, no stickiness getting into the car. Which, yeah, when you've got the little one you've got two now, running around can be a little bit of a challenge.

00:04:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's the other thing. You Like, I didn't experience the beach until, you know, a handful of years ago, whenever my daughter was born. Then we took you know, she was old enough to go to the beach and all that kind of stuff. Going to the beach as a dad of young children takes the beach experience to a whole new level. Like it there's a lot of joy, but the the extremes are are just wild, right, Like it's like a it's like a I don't know, Deshaun Jackson, you know, uh season where you get the ups and downs and the big plays where you're feeling great at times, and then all of a sudden, you get that zero because the kid takes a dump and you got to clean that in the middle of the in the middle of the beach.

00:05:04
Speaker 3: I mean, it's just not a great situation. Just takes things to another level.

00:05:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, generally, I'm pretty chill about a lot of things, but anxiety goes to like a one to seventy when you're on the beach because there's just so many things that can go wrong.

00:05:16
Speaker 2: Yes, Yes, but I did. I did best ball brow it up. I was drafting some teams and making some slow draft picks. A lot of those picks are now sort of in the late rounds. You know, I'm I'm past the early rounds and a lot of the slows. I think I have won one of the single entries over on draftings where I'm in like round five or round six, but the majority of mine are in like round sixteen, seventeen. And when you're doing slow drafts and you get to that point, it's really hard to, like, you know, we've talked about this before, go back and sort of remember where you're at with everything, and where your team is at and what stacks you need to complete and all that kind of stuff. So there's a lot more thinking when you're doing the late round stuff. And I had to do that on the beach, which is a little bit more difficult.

00:05:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's funny as we dive into today, and one of the first things that you want to talk about is actually a four tight end build. One of the things that happened to me today is I was drafting and I ended up not taking a tight end until the twelve round. So when I put myself in that situation, It's like, well, I'm gonna have to really stack the room now because I don't have any valuable shots on this early on in the draft. So I'm gonna need to find some bodies that one correlate with the stacks that have already been building, and maybe some other guys that Dallas Goddard was actually the first one I got un stacked, where I think he's just a value and he could just fall into the end zone a couple of times. So I was definitely taking a ton of stabs and ended up with the four tight end builds. So I'd love to hear about your ventures in the late round or I guess throughout the draft tight end streets.

00:06:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I like getting McBride and Bowers, and I've talked a lot about how I think Kittle is the best tight end value on the board right now, and he's you know, I've noticed that in the Millie drafts he goes more in the early fourth, like in the early to mid fourth, and then the other ones that I've done, it's more like the four or five turns. So maybe that says that maybe sharper players are more in on Kittle than you know, more of the masses. But regardless, I say, I still think that he's a pretty good value.

00:07:09
Speaker 3: You know, look with the four.

00:07:10
Speaker 2: Tight end build stuff, when I'm in a similar situation like that, I've been open to taking four tight ends on these teams, especially because you get twenty rounds over on DraftKings. That room though, is usually you know, it's filled with like, I've gotten a decent amount of Brenton Strange, you know, Pat Fryarmouth I've thrown some darts at, even though you know, the John news Smith rumors are still swirling about him potentially going to Pittsburgh and that would obviously ruin Pat Fryarmuth. Hunter Henry is someone who I've talked about on the show in the past that I've gotten, you know, a decent bit of And then you know guys that like I'll throw a late round dart at, like Harold Fannon, who we I talked to with with Pat Crane back on the first interview for this season.

00:07:48
Speaker 3: You know, I'm going with these four ten end builds.

00:07:50
Speaker 2: But one thing that I kind of want to bring up with a future guest and maybe someone in the comments, you know, over on YouTube, or if you're listening on the in the podcast feed, you can go to like Spotify and you can put comments on there these days. But one thing I really want to work through is, let's say I get and this isn't really a four tight end build related thing, but it's a late round tight end related thing, and like a late stack related thing. Let's say that I draft Tray McBride and then I get someone, let's say Drake May on my team as one of my quarterbacks. I then, obviously with May, you can go a lot of different routes right now at wide receivers. So maybe he's not the greatest example, but you know, in a scenario where Tamario Douglas is drafted and for whatever reason someone reached on him, Kyle Williams is obviously gone, Stephan Diggs is gone. Do I draft Hunter Henry? Do I complete that stack to get that tight end with Trey McBride or does that defeat the purpose a little bit of getting a player like McBride, or you know, in a scenario like this on DraftKings, like could I be throwing like will Hunter Henry find my line up in the flex spots? Sometimes or you know, like, how valuable is that. It seems intuitively, and I'd love to hear your thoughts. It seems intuitively that going that route would be more ideal if you just go with to Mario Douglas instead of a Hunter Henry, just because you can fill out the wide receiver spot. But at the same time, we want a stack. So where do you, like, where would you go in that situation.

00:09:14
Speaker 1: It's it's so funny you bring this up because I was faced with this exact conflict in this draft, because I was building a Jets Patriots stack and I was in a decision where it was I don't know who the running back or receiver that I took instead, but I had Mason Taylor sitting right there in a very soft tight end room that already had Hunter Henry and Drake May along with Garret Wilson and Breeze Hall, and I went with the non Mason Taylor pick just because having that position doubled up, specifically that onesie position, it just didn't feel as valuable to me in that game stack as spreading the chips out elsewhere. But it was very it was it was razor thin like it was there were seconds left on the clock before so did the other four.

00:10:05
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:10:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna have to ask future guests about this because you know, I don't maybe maybe it's too micro of a thing to bring up, but I do think that people are gonna be, you know, coming up like, like you know, facing this dilemma as a draft, And I think the bigger thing is, like, like your example is definitely something that people are gonna face when you get the game stack thing going right, where you're like, Okay, well, if I'm drafting Hunter Henry, should I get Mason Taylor?

00:10:29
Speaker 3: My I think you can make the argument that you would you could still go.

00:10:33
Speaker 2: Taylor only because like Hunter Henry is in a lock to do really really well in that situation, right, Whereas if you're drafting a Tree McBride or if you're drafting a George Kittle or brock Bauers, you're making the assumption that those guys are generally gonna be pretty good, right, And so like, yeah, I don't know, like I don't know like what the the right answer is to that per se. But at the same time, you know, there's scenarios where people will draft two, you know, high end quarterbacks or two high end tight end. Well, at least with the two high end tight ends, you can throw one of them in the flex, but like two higher end quarterbacks or decent investments at quarterback and you know, still end up being okay. So maybe this is just overthinking things a little bit, is what I'm what I'm basically getting.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: I definitely love your nuance of looking at a single digit tight end as opposed to my situation. I made a fifteenth round bet on Hunter Henry, so you're absolutely right, I'm not expecting this guy to be the best, and I think it probably would have been more reasonable for me to take Mason Taylor in the subsequent round as opposed to what you're saying, where we've made a bet on a single digit round tight end. I think that is definitely more interesting than my scenario. But like you also said, we could just be splitting here there.

00:11:44
Speaker 2: We might this might be you know, this is something that we didn't expect to talk about on today's show. But I like to like what like the intros of these shows. I like to workshop some stuff because it gets the conversation going, you know, in the comments and stuff like that, which is great because I want to see what people are thinking, so I can talk to these pros about these things, right whenever I interview them and stuff. I think that's something that I will bring up on future shows. And then the other thing this week that I've just been kind of not focusing heavily on but just remembering is I don't want to get too too in love with week seventeen correlation while missing out on week fifteen and sixteen, because you.

00:12:23
Speaker 3: Still got to survive. You got to get there.

00:12:26
Speaker 2: Mike Leoni has talked about this a lot, where you know, it's fine to like prioritize week seventeen, but he thinks that you just, based on research and stuff, that there's not enough love being given to week fifteen and sixteen correlation and team stacking and game stacking. So I am definitely trying to make sure I get some.

00:12:43
Speaker 3: Of that in some of these lineups as well.

00:12:45
Speaker 1: It's honestly a side of relief when you're going after a game seventeen stack and it's fallen apart, something's gone awry, and you look at your sheet and you see that there's fifteen and sixteen correlation, and you're like, Okay, at least I can there's a plan B here that I can pivot to. So yeah, I'm definitely there with you.

00:13:03
Speaker 2: I remember last year, last year's Week seventeen really came together because there was like a group of four I'm sure that's happening this year too, and I just haven't realized it yet. Like again, if any of you guys know like clusters of teams that seem to face each other a lot in Weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen, let us know in the comments, like tell us, because I'll I'll.

00:13:20
Speaker 3: Implement that and I'll deploy that.

00:13:22
Speaker 2: But you know, last year was like Chicago Minnesota. I also, when I'm drafting right now, I'm still getting mixed up with last year's Week seventeen matchups and this year's, which has.

00:13:31
Speaker 3: Been kind of a pain. But I think I have this the Week seventeen schedule memorized by this point.

00:13:37
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, like, obviously, if you're getting interdivisional players, you know you're naturally going to have a higher chance of hitting on one of those players having a Week fifteen or Week sixteen matchup against one another because they're playing each other twice in the season, you know that they're at least going to face each other, you know, during the season, and maybe that ends up happening Week fifteen sixteen. But yeah, I'm just trying to I'm trying to focus on it in a little bit more.

00:13:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, I'm trying to do a quick gaze here, and it looks like now I thought Rams Rams Hawks Carolina had something going, but no, it's just just the Hawks playing both those players. Yeah, if anybody's already on this, you're you're ahead of the curve, and please let us getch you Yeah, let us know.

00:14:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, all.

00:14:19
Speaker 1: Right, let's get into some individual players. And there was a wide receiver that really sprung onto the scene last year out in Denver who some people want to replace with the new hot young thing in Pat Bryant. But we cannot forget about dva Vele, who had a really nice end to last year and is already getting some camp buzz here I should say Ota buzz specifically here in June.

00:14:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm honestly shocked by how he performed last year. He's a really old prospect. He was like twenty six coming out. A lot of that had to do with the fact that after high school he went on a mission trip, and you know, I can't remember exactly where do you want on a mission trip? And so he delayed his collegiate playing and then he played a little bit long in college. And so that's that's the reason why he exited school when he did. I remember doing his his prospect profile and reading about that and the prospect guy. But you know, last year he wasn't that bad and like his his yards for out run rate wasn't anything atrocious, and especially for a Day three pick, you know, his counting stats weren't that bad for a I think he was in the seventh rounder. He played the slot a lot in that offense, which I think, you know, I've talked about Pat Bryant on this show, I believe, but at least on other shows that I think that he's not a bad pick. Part of that is just I want to throw darts at this offense, because this offense is ascending. You know, you get a second year quarterback and Bone Nicks, You have Sean Payton, and you have a pretty ambiguous pass catching situation where Cortland Sutton is the only true established wide receiver on that team. And so I'm okay with throwing those that like last round dart at Demon Veley, even if I don't have bon Nicks or even if I don't have you know, Kansas City Stack going to get that week seventeen correlation. I'm still okay with drafting Veley because I think that there's a chance. You know, Benjamin Albright, who's very connected to the team, to the Broncos, he tweeted my main observation at Broncos OTA's it's vle season.

00:16:16
Speaker 3: That's what he tweeted, like last week.

00:16:18
Speaker 2: So you know, if you look in my year two model, he was very much in line with like a Jalen Coker, And the difference between him and Coker is that Coker got ted McMillan added to his offense, whereas we didn't see that kind of investment made by Denver.

00:16:31
Speaker 3: So you know, Coker, you can make the argument easily, Oh, this.

00:16:34
Speaker 2: Is just a typical UDFA who had a good season and unfortunately nothing's going to come from it, which is unfortunate because I actually think Coker is pretty good. But that's a situation where they have like four viable wide receivers in Carolina. Now that at least will kind of you know, mooch off of each other, if you will, in terms of target share. But in Denver, it's really just up in the air, Like Troy Franklin hasn't proven anything. You know, Marvin Mims came on strong last year, but he might just be more of a vertical threat, and he's I think he's a fine enough pick too, just because of the best ball environment in his ability to make big plays. But I wouldn't be surprised if Devon Veley. You know, he's not gonna be a league winner by any means, but could Veley like sneak into the top.

00:17:12
Speaker 3: Forty eight at wide receiver this year. I think it's at least a possibility.

00:17:16
Speaker 1: And we know historically how wide receivers can come on in the later stages of the season. So even if you know Papa Ran gets off to a slow start, it's not like we'll be writing him off because we've seen that as a tale that is as old as time. But in the interim, this is a dude who was out there running routes in Pro football last year and making plays, so he could start to eat early and that trust could continue to build with Sean Payton throughout the season. And his role could expand from there. Another player who was very hyped last year, a man who was going very early and I think is perhaps one of the poster boys this season. Four post side sleeper is Miami Dolphins running back Jalen Wright. He was going late single digit, like early double digits last year. He was a very popular pick, but after a disastrous season in South Florida, is not getting the same love this season.

00:18:11
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, I think he's a really good pick right now at cost.

00:18:15
Speaker 2: You know, if anyone's using my rankings that I've posted on Patreon for DraftKings, you'll notice that Jalen Wright is almost like there will be some point in your draft where he's close to the top of the list just based on my ranking versus ADP. So people aren't drafting him, but he's ranked pretty high. The way I see this is Devon A. Chan is not a running back that is necessarily going to get an eighty percent rush share in that backfield. And we've seen Mike McDaniel already, you know, through his time in Miami split that backfield up. We've seen Raheem moster It get a lot of work, and then obviously eight Chan as well in that split backfield. You know, they drafted Ali Gordon this year, who I actually liked. You know, I didn't mind Jalen Wright, but I would argue that the model versus where their draft capital sat, the model liked Ollie Gordon more than Jalen Wright. But I do think that right, his speed, his size really fits the Miami McDaniel way. Where you get those I mean, it's very raheem mosterdy where you get those the speedsters who you know can can break those big plays in the outside.

00:19:14
Speaker 3: And so I don't mind Jalen right because I think.

00:19:17
Speaker 2: He could be somebody who sees one hundred and twenty to one hundred and fifty rushes this season, and then obviously there's injury upside. If something were to happen to eight Hn, then all of a sudden, you know, right is gonna climb the depth chart. I mean, it wouldn't be the first time either that you know, a Mike McDaniel running back maybe didn't see all of the work in the world as a rookie, Devon Chan who then saw an uptick in the second season.

00:19:38
Speaker 3: Devon a Chan, you know, in this system, so the scheme is a good fit.

00:19:43
Speaker 2: In my opinion, Jalen Wright last year had the best yards after contact per attempt among those running backs in Miami, and I think that he's now the RB two on that team in a pretty clear cut way. They have Alexander Madison two that they signed, but I just I have a hard time believing that you know a Day three running back in Gordon and then you know an Alexander Madison that those two are going to really supplant what the upside brings with a guy like Jalen Wright. So I've been drafting a lot of right think there's contingent upside, but there's also just general Hey, he might be able to get seven to ten touches a game, and if he breaks one, then he's going to be usable in that given week.

00:20:21
Speaker 1: Last EIGHTYP snapshot I captured from last season, he was picked one two on ud SO a late eleventh round pick, so a thirty pick drop at least. Right now, as we enter into twenty twenty five, let's go to a steady Eddie, a guy who's constantly overlooked but is honestly might be this quarterback's favorite target. They have a really strong connection. He's great in the red zone might not get to the spike weeks, but Rubio Dobs just goes out there and kind of does his job.

00:20:50
Speaker 3: Jjay.

00:20:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, there's some players where if you don't go wide receiver heavy, you want some more of that stability, you don't want as much variance. There's guys that just project well but maybe don't have like an absurd ceiling. I think Romeo Dobbs is one of those players where you can draft him and he can give you, hypothetically a top forty wide receiver season, but you know he's not being drafted as that. But he's likely not going to give you a top twenty wide receiver season, which is fine in some instances. You know, Green Bay is one of those teams that will not project very well at the individual level because they rotate their wide receiver so much, But on a week to week basis, we could still see spiked weeks from those wide receivers. So when I'm sort of in wide receiver hell and I you know, go running back heavy, or I decide to take the onesie positions earlier than than normal, Romeo Dobbs is someone that I've been going to Not only that, but there are times where you can get a later Jordan Love and get a sort of not not super super late stack, but you can get a late ish stack, you know, with green Bay. And then also that you have to bring back with Baltimore. So if you if you get a Ze Flowers or a Lamar or whomever, you know, you can bring.

00:21:53
Speaker 3: It back with a guy like Dobbs as well.

00:21:55
Speaker 2: So I uh, I'm into a mat cost right now on Best Ball.

00:21:59
Speaker 3: It's just a bet right now.

00:22:01
Speaker 1: All right, as they say, all ends start with beginnings will go full circle with your guy Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers as a break glass in case of emergency stack. Last year we talked a lot about Pats and Panthers, but you're looking at these Steelers at the ends of drafts. If you don't necessarily have as many stacks as you want.

00:22:22
Speaker 3: It's gross. It's really gross.

00:22:25
Speaker 2: I know that Aaron Rodgers and drafting Aaron Rodgers is gross. But we talked about it, you know, last week, We've talked about on the show. But these quarterbacks, man, like you, you you sometimes they just dry up so fast. Then all of a sudden you're like, oh yeah, I can I can pass on quarterback in this round, and then the next time you're up you're looking at Tyler Shuck and and Daniel Jones and and these you know, Jackson Dart and Russell Wilson.

00:22:47
Speaker 3: You know I at this time in the season.

00:22:50
Speaker 2: I am not I'm leaning more into stability than the ambiguity of these quarterback situations, because at the end of the day, like let's say Russell Wilson ends up winning the starting I don't think his ADP is going to really shift that much because we know that Jackson Dart would be coming, and I highly doubt that.

00:23:06
Speaker 3: Jackson Dart is going to start the season. So I think the Giants.

00:23:09
Speaker 2: Quarterback situation, there's not that much equity to be gained at that quarterback spot from drafting now today to drafting in August. Let's say, right, maybe there would be with New Orleans, But again, I think that we're drafting you know, Schuck for the for the late season stuff more than the early season stuff. They might start with Rattler and then kind of shift over, or if they just go with him, they go with him. But I regardless, I don't know if his ADP is going to like dramatically, dramatically shift. It's definitely not gonna go higher than cam Ward, you know, and so I just I doubt that that's going to change that much. Maybe we get some clarity with Cleveland. With the Browns, you know, right now, it seems like it's like a Picket and Flacco thing. It's I've been leaning Flacco this offseason, like I think he's going to be the starter Week one. But again, the Browns are not likely to be super competitive. So at the end of the season when we need these guys the most you know, is Joe Flack going to be that great of a best ball pick at the end of the day, And so I just default to Aaron Rodgers.

00:24:04
Speaker 3: The Steelers will be relatively competitive.

00:24:06
Speaker 2: This is a Mike Tomlin thing and what he does where you know, he is a nine to win ten win coach pretty frequently, and so if they're competitive late in the season, they're probably not gonna, you know, switch and go to a different quarterback in that offense.

00:24:20
Speaker 3: So if Aaron Rodgers is starting all year, he's gonna have some spiked weeks.

00:24:23
Speaker 2: And there are some pass catchers that you can get late on Pittsburgh that could get some run. Calvin Austin is one Roman Wilson who didn't play last year because of injury. You know, he a day two pick might be someone who's viable. And then Pat Fryarmouth is a relatively late tight end as well, So you.

00:24:41
Speaker 3: Know, it's very very ugly.

00:24:42
Speaker 2: It's not something that I'm like striving to do, but it is an emergency situation. And then the other one, like I do sometimes like if I'm not gonna go to Rogers route, I'm gonna stack like Daniel Jones with Adni Mitchell, where I think the writing is on the wall right now that Dimes is at least going to start the season, and I think that there's more weekly upside with his archetype because we know he has the rushing mobile that you know, he has the mobility. So even if he doesn't start down the stretch, like if they go to Anthony Richardson, you know during the playoff weeks or something like that, you're at least getting more spiked weak action from him than more than likely someone like Joe Flacco, just because there's gonna be more of a baseline for the mobility. And then I've talked about Ad Ni Mitchell where I just think that he's or maybe I didn't on this show.

00:25:22
Speaker 3: I did it on the Late Round Fantasy Football show. But ad Ni.

00:25:25
Speaker 2: Mitchell to me, you know, he's the wide receiver four if you will, on on Indianapolis. But he had one of the best open scores according to ESPN last year. He was like top ten in the league. You know, he's a second year guy. My model didn't love him. But he's got the athleticism, he's got seemingly got some ability there, and he's one injury away from getting a lot more work in that offense. And maybe he just emerges naturally too. So I don't mind going with like a Dimes in eighty Mitchell stack there too. It's it's look, I know, it's very very ugly. This is only in desperation mode, in emergency mode.

00:25:56
Speaker 3: Trust me.

00:25:56
Speaker 1: I had Dimes sniped for me this morning, I duo of BTJ and Josh Downs, and I was like, I need a third quarterback. Dimes is a nice little fit. And then he was gone. So I was like, all, I guess twenty twenty four Riches back, we're punding quarterback. We're going to qv and hoping nobody gets hurt.

00:26:12
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:26:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, anyway, So let's get to our guest. I sat down with Liam Murphy. Now, to be totally clear, this interview happened last week, so I don't think anything dramatically changed from last week's discussion. But Liam, he's a great dude. He's the owner of beatbestball dot com. He's been a multiple best Ball champion, including two high stakes wins over on DraftKings. He's a great streamer over on YouTube. We talked about his approach on DraftKings. We talked about zero RB quarterback strategy, and he kind of had a different take, i think than some of the other guests that I've talked to so far on quarterback. But we talked about stacking in general, unique combinations and how to kind of get those unique combinations and how forceful you need to be and getting those combinations and so much more. So, without further ado, here is my interview with Liam Murphy. All right, Liam, So I've been asking this question to every guest so far and becoming a best Ball bro because I think it's just really important as people transition from these half PPR platforms like an underdog to going to draftings where it's full PPR.

00:27:25
Speaker 3: What are some of the things that you change from a.

00:27:27
Speaker 2: Draft strategy perspective when you're going from half PPR to full PPR.

00:27:31
Speaker 4: Well, there's what you should do logically, and then there's what the market does. And so let's talk about that, right, Because logically, quarterback points contribute a lower percentage of your score on a PPR site. Right, This is just basic, Right, Like when a wide receiver catches ten balls, they score more points on a PPR site. Therefore, your quarterback scoring twenty points is a lower percentage of your overall score. So what should happen is quarterbacks should go later on PPR sites, right, and quarterbacks should go earlier on half point PPR sites. But when a quarterback scores forty, I mean that's hard to that's hard to you know, pick up the pace and I have point from your skill position players. What actually happens on DraftKings in my experience, is a different story, right. DraftKings is a huge platform, which is part of the benefit. Right, everyone knows what DraftKings is. You got some people loading up a draft and being like, let me get my quarterback, let me get my Giants quarterback. In the first round, you know, like that will happen, and God bless those people. We want that, right, But in my experience what actually happens on DraftKings is if you are not vigilant to the room, if you're not looking at the room, quarterbacks will fly off the board. It also tends to be a site where running backs go earlier, you know, in a vacuum. Obviously we want the players who catch passes more, right, but you kind of have to treat it room by room. Some room are pretty uniform. Some rooms can get pretty chaotic where you know. I did a DraftKings five five to five draft last weekend, my first one of the year, trying to defend that that championship. And yeah, one of the drafters took six running backs and one wide receiver through seven rounds and then he his quarterback room was four quarterbacks. He ready for his quarterback room. It was Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, like.

00:29:31
Speaker 3: He like the quarterbacks were.

00:29:32
Speaker 4: He punted off quarterback and he had no starters left other than maybe Aaron Rodgers, probably Aaron Rodgers.

00:29:38
Speaker 3: But you know who even knows.

00:29:40
Speaker 4: They're like I got Tyler Shuck before him and so he's got he got like Jackson Dart, Rogers, Flacco and maybe an Inchadur. You know, like, so's he's got two swings at the Browns quarterback and probably not even starting. Another drafter in that room. Took four quarterbacks as well. So it's like I built a zero RB team with Jamar Chase Rashi, Rice Trade McBride, and then I got DeVonta Smith, uh Tet McMillan, Olave and Jordan Addison. And you know, I was trying to get running backs, but like the room was hoarding it, so I just had to adjust and I ended up building a three quarterback, nine running back, six wide receiver, two tight end room. Uh and you know my running back room is I got Miles Sanders in there.

00:30:28
Speaker 3: You know, we just got a lot of bullets there.

00:30:30
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's a long answer. I don't even know I answered your yourself. But like obviously the skill players they score more points on PPR sites because they catch balls and that's how.

00:30:39
Speaker 3: The scoring system works. Yeah.

00:30:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I think that what you bring up is really important that on on DraftKings, like if you're if you are used to other you know, like playing on underdog or something where things seem to be very structured. Let's say and and and it's it's sort of people following following in line with ADP, there's there's and. This is something that it's been consistent and consistently said, is that on DraftKings you see a lot of takes and picks more all over the place. Do you do you find that you like that X you can take advantage of that more and you can think more in the fly, like you going with a nine running back.

00:31:14
Speaker 3: Build obviously is not a common build whatsoever.

00:31:17
Speaker 2: But what you're obviously doing in that scenario is reacting and saying, Okay, I didn't spend up any draft capital running back early, so I'm gonna get a quantity instead of the quality of the position later.

00:31:28
Speaker 3: Do you think that you personally have an advantage of that?

00:31:31
Speaker 2: Do you think that others, if they studied the game, would have an advantage in doing that too?

00:31:34
Speaker 4: I mean, generally, my viewpoint about best ball is like why I like it is the more decisions we need to make continuously, Like I'm gonna have an advantage because I think I make good decisions, right, So it's like I like that we have to make twenty individual decisions versus yeah, a daily fantasy lineup where you can click, you know, generate my lineup for me.

00:31:53
Speaker 3: You didn't even make a decision. The computer made.

00:31:55
Speaker 4: Decision for you, right, Like I like that you have to adapt on the fly. This is why I do pretty strictly all fast drafts, right, like you the better And I like that we're making these decisions and adjusting to the rooms, and like, look, it's not it's not always going to work, right, Like my my nine running back room, I might not have even got, you know, like Jordan Mason's my RB one.

00:32:13
Speaker 3: So it's like it.

00:32:14
Speaker 4: Might not work out, folks, Right, but you got you know, when you're drafting enough teams, So if you want to draft a high you know, quantity of teams, try a lower buy in if you don't have a big bank roll, right, But like, you know, you got to try different builds, you Like. I think what happened last year with a lot of people is we've seen the success of zero running back year to year, and all of a sudden, like seventy percent of the field was building zero running back teams. And it was a bad year to build zero running back just because of how the scoring went. So it's like you got this like mega calamity where it's like everyone's doing the same thing and it was a bad year to do it. And this is why you should you should vary your your builds somewhat.

00:32:56
Speaker 2: See you you brought up zero RB. I know you've been an advocate of zero RB in the past. Is is that something that you find easier to do that you're more comfortable with on DraftKings? Uh, specifically this season because you know, through through my season long analysis, you know there's a lot of recency bias that goes on with ADP where you know, if there's a good running back season the previous year, then there's a higher ADPs with running back the next season, and you know, same thing with other positions, et cetera, et cetera. Do you think that that's gonna spill over year over? You're in the best ball scene And is that easier than for you to say? No, you know what, I'm not going to go running back because this is a full PPR platform and running backs are going way too early in my opinion, So I'm going to build more zero RB teams this year on a platform like draftings.

00:33:40
Speaker 4: So I don't I don't like try to build like on on DraftKings. I don't build like a wildly different portfolio of teams versus on a half point site, right Like, I'm still I'm still mixing it. In general, I always believe in the concept of zero RB because it's very easily to conceptualize when it would be the best build. Right, Like, wide receiver is almost always the scarcest position as far as like wide receivers who truly matter. We know it's a skill paced position, right where it's like you can give andre Yoshivas a million routes. He's not going to be Jamar Chase right like he does not where you know, if Zach Moss was getting forty touches a game, Okay, yeah he could do.

00:34:20
Speaker 3: He's not fast ast Chase.

00:34:21
Speaker 4: Brown, but he could do ninety percent of Chase Brown, Right, So all you need CMC goes down week one, you know, Derrick Henry goes down week four, whatever James Cook holds out, you know, Alvin Kamara hits the age cliff. All you need is a couple of these things to go. You take a swing at the backup. You happen to be right now you have a locked and starter where you didn't pay the draft capital. So yeah, I still believe in the concept of zero RB on draftings heavily. However, I will note I generally advise.

00:34:50
Speaker 3: People to like.

00:34:52
Speaker 4: The way I like to approach it is there's not a ton of running backs I love, but I do like a lot of the like I love Jamir Gibbs, right, I love guys like this. So my general advice is you should be if you like a Jamiir Gibbs, if you like an eight Chan, if you like a Derrick Henry, if you like a Saquon, maybe you break the tie towards that running back early because I promise you there are going to be wide receiver values in round eleven, round twelve, round thirteen that you're not used to seeing on a half point PPR site, where it's like you're gonna get Rashid Shaheed in the one forties, You're gonna get like Luther Burden go thirty picks later on DraftKings, right, like you're gonna get these guys here. So it's like, yeah, I'll you know, Ceedee Lam versus Jamier Gibbs. I like them both A lot, But maybe I'll take Gibbs a little bit more often on DraftKings just to give me one anchor, and then I still know I'm gonna build such a strong wide receiver room because for whatever reason, wide receiver goes like super late on DraftKings.

00:35:51
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:35:52
Speaker 2: Well, I mean the bottom line is, and what you're saying is that if you don't lean into what the market's doing on DraftKings, you're probably just gonna only have zero RB team if you do that, right, because because the market is pushing these running backs up more than expected, and if you don't eventually kind of lean into that a bit, then you will never have you know, that that optimal roster, that that that non zero RB roster. Meanwhile, you know there are because they are pushing the running backs up, there are the burden types later. So you got to kind of play the market the game a little bit, right, Like, you got to play what that market's doing to some degree. If you just ignore it completely, then you're not gonna get the values that you would probably want, right.

00:36:29
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I've definitely done that some years and in some drafts where I've just been like stubborn about it, but like ye're right, you know, but like like I like, for example, I don't want to draft Joe Mixon at the three four term, which is roughly his ADP on Draft Kings. He goes maybe ten to twenty picks later, an underdog, Like I don't want to do that. But I like Jamir Gibbs, you know. So it's like, let me get my Gibbs, let me adjust in the market. And yes, still some teams I will build zero RB. I'll build teams with six wide receivers and stop. You know where a big mistake of zero RB, Like my first year playing was like okay, I started the draft with five wide receivers and then I still ended with nine wide receivers, And it's like that's not that's not adding up exactly there where it's like, yeah, you only need two running backs each week, but you got to get shots at getting these difference makers right right right that that nine running back team I referenced my running back room has like Isaac Grendo, I like that one a lot.

00:37:24
Speaker 3: You know, it's not the CNC.

00:37:26
Speaker 4: Is this hits a snag or whatever, like he's he's rock and rolling. Ray Davis I had to reach on Ray Davis because you know, the running backs were gone, so whatever, I had to reach a full round on Ray Davis. Not hard to see that one working out, you know, get some goal line touches, whatever, Miles Sanders, I mean possibly Cowboys starter, anything happens in Dallas.

00:37:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, anything, So we got some pieces there. Are there any you mentioned Joe Mixon?

00:37:51
Speaker 2: Are there any other early round running backs that you are generally avoiding?

00:37:55
Speaker 3: You like Gibbs, but who are you not really going after?

00:37:58
Speaker 4: It's gonna be real tough for me to click Derrick Henry on a PPR site at his age fifty eight season.

00:38:04
Speaker 3: I mean, look, the nice thing about.

00:38:06
Speaker 4: Henry is he has an elite single week ceiling, which, like, this is what we want in best ball.

00:38:12
Speaker 3: Rick.

00:38:12
Speaker 4: This is why I prefer Jamiir Gibbs to be Jeon Robinson because Bijon, you know, he's gonna he's gonna get all these touches. The offense is probably gonna improve. But we've really not seen Bijon hit nuclear fantasy scorers. Forty points, fifty points like these are stuff that wins you, tournaments, wins you playoff pods, advantages you, right, Like he's a great bet for twenty twenty five and maybe maybe he gets some more explosive, gets more touchdowns whatever. But like Jamiir Gibbs, I mean, the man went on an insane run when Montgomery was gone. Who knows about Montgomery's health. So, yeah, Henry's gonna be tough for me. I'll bend the need to Saquon. I'm gonna mix Saquon in. You know, I still prefer Jefferson and Lamb, but like I'll take him sometimes at the two to three mix in. Yeah, mix in is a little bit tough for me, and it really it's gonna depend on the price. Like I've not done as many DraftKings million makers yet have probably done like ten to twelve so far today. But like, if the market's making me take James Connor at the four or five turn, like, no, I'm sorry, I'm not gonna do that, I'm gonna wait a little bit right, Like yeah, if they're you know, like I like Jayalen Warren. I think I think it's pretty presumptuous what we're doing with the price of Caleb Johnson, you know, like, and so.

00:39:29
Speaker 3: In general, I like the guys to catch passes. So like I love a champ. I love Gibbs, you know.

00:39:33
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, and smart a lot of I mean, look, every every ounce of research, especially in the middle rounds, I'm gonna be doing. Actually, by the time this goes out, I'll have had a show out.

00:39:43
Speaker 3: On middle round running backs.

00:39:44
Speaker 2: And uh, you know how important that pass catching element is because in the middle rounds, those running backs, especially like in round like you know, five to nine, in that range, there's such a wide variety of the type of running back that you'll find in terms of like what their projected receiving role is.

00:39:59
Speaker 3: And the guys, guys who are pass catchers exceed their average rapts.

00:40:02
Speaker 2: And expectation at such an astronomically strong rate versus the guys who don't, you know, like the guys like Brian Robinson, I just have never been you know, privy toward you know, and like going going after them.

00:40:13
Speaker 3: Brian Robinson picked eighty. That's a noe for me. Brian Robinson pick one hundred. Okay, yeah, I'll entertain that.

00:40:19
Speaker 4: And it's like different, stuff's pretty fickle. It's like, well, if you like the guy at twenty picks later, yeah, yeah, sh exactly, man, Like yeah, there's.

00:40:26
Speaker 3: Some weird stuff like that on DK.

00:40:28
Speaker 2: Like one of the most glaring things that I found with the running backs this year was like the Washington backfield.

00:40:33
Speaker 3: And that it's shrunk more and more on draftings.

00:40:36
Speaker 2: But when I first started, like in May drafting on DK, the delta between Eckler to Brian Robinson on a full PPR platform was wild to me, Like it just it seems like that should be.

00:40:47
Speaker 3: Shrunk way more.

00:40:48
Speaker 2: My projections basically have them like back to back to begin with, like it's not and the fact that there was like a twenty running back gap. You know, it's just this massive gap, which is crazy. So you know, going going after those those pass catchers in season long and obviously in best ball in a full PPR platform like this obviously, you know, makes a lot of sense.

00:41:06
Speaker 4: There is some like weird vibe coded stuff happening in the market right where it's like, yeah, Eckler was objectively a great pick last year until he got hurt, right, It just feels like people like, you know, it's June, it's May, people, you know, JK. Dobbins is still sitting out there. Nick Chubb's still sitting out there. Deebo Samuel there, but it's like, yeah, I mean, if Eckler is just Eckler from last year, which is not even like Eckler at the peak, Like why would you not want this guy? And it's like, yeah, hold up seventeen weeks, but you know, yes.

00:41:35
Speaker 2: He'll easily outperform that cost if if he is just even if he's just the dude from last year, right, like even like and yeah, it just doesn't really make.

00:41:43
Speaker 3: That much sense to me.

00:41:44
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about quarterback because obviously in season long you are going to focus heavily on mobility.

00:41:52
Speaker 3: On rushing.

00:41:52
Speaker 2: You want those guys that can give you that predictable floor. But my question to you is do you care about that as much in best ball? Because if you look at like weekly ceilings and such, you can obviously still get you know, like, for instance, in season long, I'm going to tell everyone this year to fade Jared Goff at ADP right because he's a QB eight or whatever from a from a price perspective, and he has a crazy touchdown rate. Are coming up a season with a crazy touchdown rate that's almost bound to regress the play. You know, he doesn't give you any upside with his legs. Those kinds of players from a season long lock him into your lineup standpoint. They have an incredible amount of volatility week to week, and you know you need those pocket passers to hit big in touchdown rate for them to be really viable.

00:42:36
Speaker 3: And that's just not something that I want to bet on.

00:42:38
Speaker 2: Whenever I can get you know, a drake may like literally like five rounds later in a season long draft, right. But my question to you is, you know, it seems like quarterback is dictated so much by the weapons you draft early and also quarterback, you know the these pocket passers can still have and will still have spiked weeks. You know, the first time Jared Goff is a four touchdown game, someone's gonna come at me and be like you're.

00:43:04
Speaker 4: Gonna hear it?

00:43:04
Speaker 3: Oh wow, yeah, yeah, yeah, you faded.

00:43:06
Speaker 2: God, It's like I understand he's gonna have spiked weeks. So to you, my question to you is are you drafting quarterbacks with the rushing aspect heavily in mind as we are in season long or are you doing it more so based on what you've already drafted and knowing that these pocket passers will still give you some spiked weeks.

00:43:24
Speaker 4: So I mean, yeah, the stacking dictates a lot of it. And I would say like in general, my quarterback portfolio most years is pretty is pretty spread out because it's like, I you know, realistically, any of these guys can have thirty or forty points week seventeen, and it's not where I want to say my edges. It's like I don't want to be like this is the guy you need this year, you know, like I could see pass to many of them. I will say some years though, I do, like, you know, the years where Mahomes was going at the same price as like Josh Allen, I'm like, this is insane, right, Like Mahomes is, mah is just mostly a statue guy unless it's playoffs, which it will not be in the regular season. So it's like I'm gonna fulfade that, like I'm gonna take the unicorn and Josh Allen. I do care about rushing a lot, right, Like I've swung and miss on Justin Fields plenty of times. I've swung and miss on Trey Lance last year. Yes, I did have a lot of Jayden Daniels. That's a final hit, like that was justification for years of swinging at you know, like I have an aggressive ranking on Justin Fields because I was worried pre draft that they would draft someone, but they didn't. It's him and Tyron Taylor. And it's like unless Field, like unless there's like a revolt from the locker room, like they got to give this guy most of the year, So it's like, yeah, I care about a guy like Fields who can just go for forty you know, right, that's pretty valuable. But in general, like, yeah, I'm spreading it out, and I will note that the quarterback market as a whole is a little bit different this year on every platform, where usually on underdog you could get legit Like in past years, Kim Ward would been an eighteenth round pick an underdog. I don't know why, but all the quarterbacks went late on underdog. What's happening this year is that QB window. Everyone's talking about that, like eighth round, ninth round, tenth round, eleventh round, where the first quarterback off the board is like Mahomes or Baker Mayfield and the last quarterback off the board is like Trevor Lawrence, CJ. Stroud, JJ McCarthy. Ye, like so many people on every platform are taking two to three guys in that range, and that impacts the back end and the front end. Where on the back end that is causing cam Ward to no longer be this eighteenth round pick. Right, you're gonna have to pay whatever it is, a fifteenth round, a sixteenth round, like, or you're gonna have to take Tyler Shuck a little bit earlier than you would want, especially, like you got to pay attention there, like when four drafters in your room take three quarterbacks in those rounds, Like you just gotta do the math in your head and be like, well, there's not gonna be that many.

00:45:58
Speaker 3: Starters left, like right, and supplies drying up. Yeah, I got to go for it.

00:46:02
Speaker 4: And people get antsy at every at every position when that happens, Like when they see positions flying off.

00:46:08
Speaker 3: They want to check it off for themselves there. Yeah, are you a big elite quarterback guy?

00:46:13
Speaker 2: Because on DraftKings, and I had this conversation with Neil last week on DraftKings, how the quarterbacks are pushed up a little bit just in general, like where you know you'll get the the the bakers and the like that tier and like the bow knicks, like earlier.

00:46:28
Speaker 3: That all that ends up making the.

00:46:30
Speaker 2: Elite quarterbacks a little bit more attractive to a degree because they're being being drafted in the same the same spot the other guys are getting drafted earlier. So that just naturally gives the elite quarterbacks more of that like value edge. And that was something that Neil and I kind of went back and forth on. But I'm curious if, like you see that as well, and if historically, like even beyond this year, like as has elite quarterback been a direction that you've gone in, you know, in Best Ball.

00:46:56
Speaker 4: I would say, in general, I've been into the elite quarterbacks this year. You know, DraftKings is a different market. Like Josh Allen was my quarterback the year I won BBM two. Patrick Mahomes in the fourth round was my quarterback when I won the five five five one year, right, Like, so like in general, yeah, I do like elite quarterback because what I really like is I don't want to build every team three six eight three, which three three quarterbacks, six running back, eight wide receivers, three tight ends. That's like base normal draft capital adjust from there if you're new to Best Ball. But like you know, like I like going only two quarterbacks and you know, if a guy gets hurt, so be it.

00:47:35
Speaker 3: But like I want the.

00:47:36
Speaker 4: Extra stab at landing a difference maker skill player. And so this year, you know, like the elite quarterbacks, I'm not taking them in the second round like where they will go some years on or some drafts on DraftKings. Yeah, but at that three four turn Lamar, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, like yeah, I want some access to these guys because in any given year they can realistically just go like thirty forty forty and you're like.

00:48:06
Speaker 2: You and you know who they are, right, like we know that it's them that are going to be the ones that are doing that.

00:48:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like it's no mystery, and all you really need is you need the skill players around them to not be the skeleton keys. Like right, okay, So like if you take Josh Allen over Mike Evans and you need Mike Evans, you lose, you know, yeah, so be it. But I would say, like the I don't feel that like Herbert Purdy, Caleb you know, all the quarterbacks in there, I don't feel like they're inappropriately priced. Like I don't feel like it's not like some years where it's like the elites go in the third round and then those guys go in like the sixth round. That's like, well, I mean I only got to pay two more rounds to get the QB one instead of the QB fifteen, you know, like it is appropriate price. So like, yeah, I am making most of my teams getting like a bon Nix and a Kyler justin Fields and a Party Caleb and whatever. But like I always want, you know, I'm a Bills fan, so I gotta have some Josh Allen personally though, would have Josh Allen QB three this year, oh wow after Lamar, And I'm just working like there's got.

00:49:05
Speaker 3: To be one year.

00:49:06
Speaker 4: I don't know if it is a year, but like he's not gonna just steal fifteen rushing touchdowns every year, Like they're not going to need him to do that. They're gonna say for the playoffs sometimes. And I'm just getting a little like sixth cents, like like Jayden, he's gonna have to rock it off like twenty five points a game, you know a week.

00:49:24
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah.

00:49:25
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts is one that like to me, has been like I mean because you can get him in the fifth yeah, at times on DK and I know that. I just I think that the perception with Hurts is just that he's just not as good of a quarterback as those other three guys necessarily are. You know, Jane Daniels is being the up and comer, and there's just that like unknown upside with him. I just have had a hard time, you know, not drafting Jalen Hurts. I want to ask you something about this actually, so when when Pat when Pat Crane was on, I had the discussion with him, if you're at the one spot right on draftings, you'll get you know, Jamar Chase, and then you can get t Higgins and Trey McBride right in the in the at the two three turn. Then you're stacking week seventeen, and then you're at the four or five turn and Jalen Hurts is often there, but Joe Burrow is often there. And my question to you, as a full blown best ball bro and that scenario, are you taking the because I would assume that you like.

00:50:19
Speaker 3: Hurts more than Burrow just straight up, like in a vacuum. I have them ranked next to each other. So do you have him.

00:50:24
Speaker 2: Ranked next to Okay, Okay, so you're so in that's in that scenario, you're easily taking Burrow, then.

00:50:30
Speaker 3: I am taking. The answer is it's a mix.

00:50:33
Speaker 4: In general, I'm gonna go for the stack because it just makes things easier, right, Like when Chase scores forty, which is the story I'm telling Andy McBride scrows thirty, Burrow's coming around. But I would want some times to have yeah, like sometimes Chase is gonna score thirty, Burrow scores twenty, and Hurt scores forty, and it's more. It's a rarer combo exactly. Now, DraftKings is not like on some platforms, you can take Chase into Higgins and you can pass on Burrow at the four or five turn and you can get him at the six seven turn. Draftings is not a platform to try that game. You can't do it because Burrow doesn't even make it to the four or five turn to stack up with Jamar Chase, like fifty percent of the time, like people Joe Burrow.

00:51:20
Speaker 3: You know, like they want their guy, they get their guy.

00:51:24
Speaker 4: But you know, I think what you're saying is a it's a question of how often is that stack being made, What is the optimal frequency of that, you know, and like how much leverage am I getting here? And I think you're asking the questions like, yeah, I would want some hurts there. I would pass on Burrow totally there sometimes too, just do new quarterback, you know, Yeah.

00:51:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, There's been times where like when I'm in the one spot and I get that Higgins Chase combo and then I get McBride. I there's sometimes where I pass on them and pass on a quarterback at the four or five and don't get Burrow, and then I get Kyler later right to pair with McBride, and then you have at least somewhat of a of a different you know, week seventeen kind of game stack.

00:52:05
Speaker 3: Let's talk about Week seventeen since we're kind of bringing that up right.

00:52:07
Speaker 2: So the reason I keep saying the Bengals and the Cardinals is because my best ball bros have told me the importance of these week seventeen games, you know, just intuitively, Week seventeen is when the championships are happening, So you want to game stack, you know, to optimize if that game goes off, then your team would hypothetically go off. How important, though, is Week seventeen to you, like, like, let's say that you have two quarterbacks, like you said you like to do you have a two quarterback team, you stacked both of them. Are are those stacks almost automatically going to have a player on the opposite field, opposite side of the field in that game you know for that player? So if you get Jamar Chase and t Higgins, are you desperately trying And then you get Joe Burrow, are you desperately trying to get a cardinal in that lineup?

00:52:51
Speaker 3: Because they play each other Week seventeen?

00:52:53
Speaker 4: So I mean Week seventeen stacking is quite important to me. Like you know, I sent you some of my my two tournament teams that one on DK and you maybe you could highlight those and post production or whatever you could cut this, but like you coul look at those teams, like fifteen of the twenty players are like correlated for Week seventeen sometimes or like the year one BBM two. I think I helped popularize the Week seventeen a bit, like I had a ton of Week seventeen correlation, Like I don't win BBM two without a monraw in Rashad Penny right, like the bringback so I'll just do two player combos, you know, like you don't always need the quarterback, but it should be a tie break because as it becomes more popular, you know, like like for an easy tie break, there is like you're choosing between Michael Wilson and to Mario Douglass. You're gonna take Michael Wilson for the Week seventeen correlation, right, And you know, my teams that have reached the finals and done well either won the tournament or like you know, gotten like top thirty in BBM, they have been heavily correlated for Week seventeen because it helped you hit you know, eighty five ninety percentile outcomes and you don't need to hit ninety nine point ninety nine nine to win these these tournaments. But there are every single team I build is not correlated for Week seventeen. Sometimes I do build teams with none, you know, yeah, because it is like the it is the players at the end of the day. But yeah, there are some teams that are heavily correlated for Week seventeen, like almost every single pick, but not like twenty five players from the same game like some people.

00:54:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, like you're not going so so far out of your way for that, Like what like hare, I'll say this, would you go like around round and a half to force a stack like a same team stack and not do that in a same game stack in a week seventeen stack.

00:54:40
Speaker 3: You know what I mean?

00:54:40
Speaker 2: Like if you have let's say that you have Kyler and you're in the latter rounds, you need a wide receiver in general, but you'll say, Okay, I'll get Michael Wilson around ahead of ADP just to make sure that I get another player. You know, I have McBride, but let's just get one more player to add to that stack. Whereas if you had you know, Burrow and Chase and Higgins, would you still do that and make that reach for a player like Michael Wilson or would you play the ADP value game more in that week seventeen scenario?

00:55:08
Speaker 3: So the later it is in the draft, like, the less you care.

00:55:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I don't know, like like what's the difference between a twelfth round pick seventeenth round.

00:55:17
Speaker 3: Pick, right?

00:55:18
Speaker 4: But like like I'm not taking James Connor at the two three turn to pair with Jamar Chase, right, Like I don't think it's that important. I am a big proponent in uniqueness though, So like, I think it's always okay to reach a full round on your quarterback just because you can just say, look the guy in this round. So let's say, let's just pretend that Lamar always won at the three four turn and not in you know, he always went three four turn, and you take him at the one two turn, and you say, you know what the skeleton key is this year? It's two players at the three four turn. It's the second round fails, which happens sometimes like the year Calvin Ridley was there.

00:55:57
Speaker 3: It was a failure of a second round.

00:55:59
Speaker 4: You know, you know, you just have the only Lamar team with two three four turn guys and all the other field has their first.

00:56:05
Speaker 3: And second round pick. Then they have Lamar and a skilled player.

00:56:08
Speaker 4: Like I think you can always justify things with uniqueness in general. But yeah, I'm not like making like wild reaches early for Week seventeen correlation in general.

00:56:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, do you do that kind of thing like the Lamar example, Do you do that more late in the in the best ball drafting season or does it matter to you? What I guess what I'm thinking is is that like, if you do it late you can kind of see where the fluctuations happen throughout the summer with a player like let's just say Lamar.

00:56:36
Speaker 3: All summer goes.

00:56:38
Speaker 2: At the three four turn, and then you decide to draft them at the two to three turn in August, because you know there's gonna be way fewer teams that have them lined up. And maybe I'm not thinking about this properly, but way fewer teams have them lined up with those players that are going on that side of the draft board, Like do you think about that as the season goes on?

00:56:56
Speaker 3: Is that an important piece of your strategy personally?

00:56:59
Speaker 4: No, what you're saying is what many people believe in, Like many people have preached, Oh, there's no point in reaching for uniqueness until August, once you have.

00:57:05
Speaker 3: All the all the data.

00:57:07
Speaker 4: And my pushback there would be, like, let's take Chewba Hubbard. Lest year, Chuba Hubbard went from like a fifteenth round pick to a tenth round pick. So my early drafted teams are going to have unique ADPs, hopefully guys that go up in value that is unique anyways, And so by reaching for this uniqueness, now I can ideally have my cake and eat it too, where you yeah, I mean, yeah, okay, so I might not have like an unduped combo come August, but the rest of my draft is so unique and I'm really only like my May teams I'm hoping are competing with the other May teams, you know, because they're going there's gonna be different, Like we're gonna be taking different players in August drafts in the twentieth round, Like we might not be taking Blake Korn, we might not be taking Jarquis Hunter. We might not be taking Dylan Samson or drume Ford. You know, like we're gonna be making different bets there, guys in the ninth round, sixth round, fifth round, like who knows, Like I got a running back of tears ACL and now I and like let's just use CMC.

00:58:06
Speaker 3: CMC breaks a.

00:58:07
Speaker 4: Leg, and now Isaac Grendo is like a second round pick, and it's like, well, I have this unique Isaac Grendel team from May. I think uniqueness is always valuable and you can kind of think through like players who will go up, like I think many people think Rashiet Rice is going up in price, right, yeah, and so it's like create your unique combos now, because it doesn't really matter what happens. He's going he's going up.

00:58:29
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah.

00:58:31
Speaker 2: And also like there maybe people are also overthinking it a bit. And this is me just obviously thinking out loud about this, but maybe people are also overthinking that a bit. And this is what to your point of what you're saying. But like, there are so many players on your team, right, there's twenty inputs on your team that you're almost making the assumption if you were to take Lamar at the two to three turn as opposed to the three to four turn, you know, to reach and make things unique, you're almost making the assumption that the rest of the ADP has remained stagnant, right, where like all those players, where all those players have just remained the same, and the only thing that's shifting is Lamar going from three to four to two three, right, Like, And that seems kind of insane to think that way.

00:59:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly right. So it's like, but by thinking out loud, I'm a big proponent of that. That's how that's how I came up with you know, like when my first year playing basketball, there was nothing on the internet. You know, there's like an article or two by TJ Hernandez.

00:59:24
Speaker 3: Shout out TJ. Yeah, shout out TJ.

00:59:26
Speaker 4: Man.

00:59:26
Speaker 3: We miss you in these uh these these fantasy football streets. Yeah yeah, all right, I will ask you one more question.

00:59:32
Speaker 2: One player that you seem to be drafting most on draftings you think is most undervalued.

00:59:37
Speaker 3: You can name more than one if you want to.

00:59:38
Speaker 2: But who are Who's a guy or two that you seem to be going back to on that platform.

00:59:44
Speaker 4: So I mean, again, I've not done a ton of drafts yet, but like some guys who like stick out with like a sore thumb, are some of these mid range wide receivers the mid to late round, kind of like the last tier of guys we have hoped for. In that group, I would put guys like Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Rashid shi Hied, the rookies, Agbuka Burden, and I don't I don't know why DraftKings hates rookies. Like last year, I was just slamming Brian Thomas all year long, and now it's like Luther Burden and Miika A Buka, like these guys go very late. I Mika Buka went seventeenth overall, And I mean your guess is as good as mine about the Chris Godwin versus Buka split. How healthy Chris Godwin is? You know, I'm a I'm a top down guy. The bucks they're gonna be good. Let me get peoples of it. I'll figure out the rest later. So Yeah, definitely like a Rashi Shihed, Luther Burden and Igbuka. I mean sometimes these guys even like a Colston Lovelin, Like sometimes these guys are available like one forty one fifty and it's, oh my god, this this is a crazy value.

01:00:44
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:00:44
Speaker 2: No, I like the Igbuka shout a lot. There's a trend that I've always gone back to, uh in the in the draft guide where if you get these like middle to into the late round wider rookie wide receivers who had good prospect scores regardless of their situation, they hit. Actually was what got me Brian Thomas so heavily last year was that when you found A and I instead of going by round, I'm looking at just general wide receiver positioning, like within the position, when you get a guy who's like into that like wide receiver three to five range, who is a really solid you know, round one rookie really good prospect score, their hit rates unbelievable against costs. And so I know that the Igbuka situation doesn't look that amazing, but I've been drafting him a lot too, because it's like guys get hurt.

01:01:29
Speaker 3: Things can change. He could just emerge. Maybe he's really.

01:01:31
Speaker 2: Good, and I think he's really good, and god would not be healthy, like yeah, yeah, Tomlin might not be healthy, Like there are plenty of outs for Aguca to at least have a better than anticipated rookie season and he.

01:01:42
Speaker 3: Can still have spiked weeks even with Godwin in Mike Evans healthy.

01:01:45
Speaker 4: Absolutely yeah, And like anyone that gets hit with the Q tag DraftKings for whatever reason will like load up a Q tag in May and June.

01:01:53
Speaker 3: If a guy is like, you know, sick.

01:01:56
Speaker 4: For the day, Yeah, I know, the Q tag will be treated like they had the plague. Like they will drop sometimes twenty to thirty picks scoop up the Q tags friends scoop them up. Like it doesn't always work, but like Josh Downs is an example. Last year he went from like a tenth round pick to like a fourteenth or something like that, or like an eighth and I was just like, all right, whatever, Like it didn't work with Hopkins, who I also scooped it on, but it did work with Downs, and so it's like, yeah, like there's a lot of Week one brain for June. We feel really confident about these teams. We feel really confident. It's Mike Evans, and it's and it's uh Chris.

01:02:31
Speaker 3: Godwin and at Buda. I don't know, but.

01:02:33
Speaker 4: Like folks, this is a very chaotic game. They need to last seventeen weeks that you know. Ibuka could do nothing but score you thirty five points week seventeen, and it's worth the pick. He was the seventeenth overall pick in the real NFL draft. You know, yeah, so like good get good player, yeah, good player, Yeah, good player. Leon.

01:02:51
Speaker 2: This is great, man. Let everyone know what you're up to, what you're working on, where they can find you.

01:02:55
Speaker 4: Got YouTube channel mostly you can just search my name Lea Murphy and I got best ball stuff at beatbestball dot com.

01:03:01
Speaker 3: Appreciated JJ. This was a lot of fun, man.

01:03:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, of course, always love chatting with you. You can find all my stuff over on lateround dot com. Make sure you're pre ordering the draft guide and you can still check out the Prospect Guide otherwise everyone, thank you.