289: 15 Transactions for Week 5

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ zach Esen, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com. In This is episode two hundred and eighty nine of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I feel like at the start of every football season we see people on Twitter tweeting about fantasy football, saying things like this is the weirdest year we've ever seen. Have you ever noticed that at the end of the season, we never really think that, or at least not to that degree. It's because of sample size. When we're working off of just a few games, crazy things are bound to happen. Weird stuff is going to occur, and you can use sample size to your advantage when you buy and sell players in fantasy football when you know that sample size is the thing and your league mates just don't care about it as much. Now, I've got some transactions to help you on today's show, but before get into them, I wanted to talk to you guys about Odds Fire, which is a new odds comparison tool our engineers have developed over on NumberFire dot com. Odds fires the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated US market. Compare odds, quickly, identify the best value, and even examine first party FanDuel data all in one place. It's not just helpful for sports betting, but it's really helpful for fantasy purposes as well. I use it all the time, so check out the experience for free now on number fire or at oddsfire dot com. Gambling problem Call one eight hundred gambler by DeAndre Hopkins. DeAndre Hopkins right now is ranked outside the top twenty wide receivers in fantasy football, and honestly, that's after three pretty mediocre performances because he had a Week one game that was monstrous. Outside of that monster game, he hasn't ranked higher than wide receiver thirty eight in weekly PPR scoring. So I think any logical fantasy player thinks that DeAndre Hopkins is a bye, and I obviously agree. He's seen at least twenty percent of Houston targets in each of their four games. He's still sitting nicely with a twenty nine percent target share on the season. Now, the Texans didn't look good on Sunday, I totally get it, but they also faced Jalen Ramsey and the Jags and then Casey Hayward and the Chargers. They get Atlanta in Week five. That's a very very good matchup for DeAndre Hopkins. I think he gets back on track this week by Odell Beckham. So, Odell Beckham's in a similar spot as Hopkins. You took him early in your draft, but outside of that one big game, he's been hurting your fantasy team. But the peripherals are still there. His lowest single game target share was twenty two point six percent. That's only been hit by twenty one wideouts across the entire season. That's his weekly floor right now, and the Cleveland offense is clearly underperformed aside from this past week. When an offense isn't moving the ball down the field very well, that hurts everyone in that offense. Now, I do think that DeAndre Hopkins is the better buy between these two players, but Beckham should still be a wide receiver won this season as long as he's healthy because volume always wins in fantasy football, sell Will Disley. So here's the thing about Will Disley he could actually finish as a tight end one this season because of the lack of pass catching options in Seattle, and the Seahawks just sent the other tight end they had, Nick Venette, to Pittsburgh last week. Now, with that being said, he's not going to keep up this pace. Will Disley isn't going to continue doing what he did in Week four. He saw almost thirty percent of the Seahawks targets on Sunday, but it was also the best matchup that he could find in the entire league. The Cardinals have been by far the worst team at stopping tight ends this year. Before this past week, Disley was seeing a target share in the fifteen percent range, and there's nothing wrong with that. But he's not going to keep up a thirty percent target share week in and week out. And the other thing too, is that he's overperformed in the touchdown column this year. As I always talk about, touchdowns and yards have a strong correlation to one another. The higher the yardage total, the more touchdowns a player is likely to have. Based on the tight end yards per touchdown rate over the last five years, Disley's one hundred and eighty one receiving yards this season should have netted him about one point four touchdowns. Instead he has four. That makes him a huge regression candidate in the touchdown column. It's probably not as big as what the yards to touchdown conversion shows, but there is some touchdown regression coming. So if you can sell him for a usable running back or wide receiver piece, I'm all for it. Some people may not be buying into him, so I think it's fine if you want to hold him as well. Add Jordan Wilkins and Naim Hines. So Marlon Mack has an ankle injury, so that leaves the backfield to Jordan Wilkins and Nahim Hines. Wilkins had twenty point five percent of the team snaps on Sunday, while Nahim Hines had forty five percent of them, and it was in a negative game script. But here's the thing. Week five probably is also going to feature a negative game script. The Colts are nine and a half point underdogs against the Chiefs, So if that's the case and Marlon Mack is out, Naim Heines could get a lot of run. I think both Wilkins and Hines are worth adding, but Hines is the one that I would give priority to sell Jordan Howard. So, based on Jordan Howard's rushing and receiving yardage totals this season, he should have about a touchdown and a half. Instead he has four. That's one of the biggest differentials in the should have touchdowns versus actual touchdowns in the NFL. Now, this has obviously been helped by this big three touchdown performance that he had on Thursday night against the Packers. And in that game he did see an uptick and snaps. He had over fifty percent of the team snaps, and I do think that he's gonna see the field more often after that performance. But I will say Miles Sanders could have scored on some of those plays. Jordan Howard was better in that game, but Miles Sanders could have done some of those things. But even still, you do have Sanders and Darren Sproles in this backfield. Still, I mean, prior to that game, Jordan Howard wasn't seeing more than a third of the team snaps. Now, maybe you want to wait to sell Howard because he does have a nice matchup in Week five against the Jets. I can understand that's probably gonna be usable, but I also think that you can use that tidbit when negotiating a trade. The bigger picture here still shows Jordan Howard as a player who's in a split backfield, and he has touchdown regression coming by carry On Johnson. In the two games since CJ. Anderson was cut by Detroit, carry On Johnson has seen eighty percent and seventy eight point eight percent of the Lions running back rushes. Before that happened in the first two weeks of the season, those numbers were fifty seven point one percent and fifty percent. That's a significant difference, and that's led to more volume on the ground for Johnson. He's seen at least twenty attempts in each of the team's last two games, and without CJ Anderson there, Johnson's been the clear cut goal line guy. He has five goal line attempts over the last two games. Now, I will say that his six point seven percent target share is a little bit worrisome right now, but the secondary numbers are still pointing in the right direction for carry On Johnson, and the reason to buy right now is twofold. The first is that Detroit gets Green Bay in their next game, and Green Bay's been awful against running backs to start the year. But Johnson also has a bye this week. If you're sitting at four and oh or if you're three to one, Johnson's the perfect target for you right now, especially if Johnson is on a team that's struggling because he has a bye this week, that team might need help through this by. If you're four and oh, you can take the hit. So I think Johnson's a great BY candidate right now because of that, because of the matchup, and because of his usage. Add Chris Herndon. So Herndon isn't eligible to return from his four game suspension until Week six because the Jets had their bye, and hopefully that coincides with Sam Darnold's comeback because obviously he's been sidelined with mono. But the tight end landscape's a mess. We're throwing darts out here, and I think Chris Herndon is a great dart to throw. Last season, as a rookie, only ten tight ends had more Top twelve Fantasy performances than Chris Herndon had, and he was just one of twenty eight rookie tight ends in NFL history last year to hit five hundred receiving yards. He's still out there in eighty three percent of Yahoo leagues, and he should be rostered hold Calvin Ridley. So I got a few questions about Calvin Ridley, so I figured I'd feature him on the show. And right now, I think he's just a hold. You can't train him after another down performance. But he also shouldn't go after him because the peripheral numbers really aren't there. So far, through four games, Ridley has seen more than thirteen point three percent of Atlanta's targets in just one game, and he's been consistently out snapped by Mohammed sanu Now a lot of you are sitting back and saying, why are the Falcons doing this? I don't totally know. I think Calvin Ridley is a better wide receiver than Mohammed sanou is. It could be due to this hip injury that he's dealing with, though maybe that's why the volume isn't going his way. But whatever it is, if you've got Ridley, you can't do much but hope. You just have to hope that things turn around. But I do think that it would only make sense for Atlanta to feature him a little bit more by Julian Edelman. In the fifteen Transactions article this week, I said that Julian Edelman has underappreciated volume in fantasy football, and I think that's true. I think that's the right way to describe what Julian Edelman brings to the table. He just sees volume all the time, and I'm always buying volume. This season, the only game where he's seen a sub twenty percent target chair was against Miami, and in that Miami game, Antonio Brown was active in playing for the Patriots. Antonio Brown isn't on the team anymore, so that gives a nice floor week in and week out for Julian Edelman. But upcoming for New England are also plus matchups against Washington and both New York teams. So I think given the way the Patriots performed against Buffalo they had a down week, this is the time to buy Julian Edelman, especially in PPR formats. Sell Chris Carson. So, as we all know, Chris Carson had fumbling issues through the first three weeks of the season. He didn't fumble in Week four, that's great news. He had twenty two carries, he had one hundred and four yards, on the ground, he had four targets and four catches through the air for another forty one yards. He had a great game, but we also have to bring it back a little bit. He was facing Arizona. That's one of the weaker defense is that you'll find. And it was without Rashad Penny. The last time we saw Rashad Penny, he was on the field for about a third of the team snaps. But then on top of that, in that game against Pittsburgh, this was back in week two, Chris Carson had a running back rushing share of fifty five point six percent. In Week four it was eighty eight percent. So to put this all another way, Rashad Penny was sidelined and that really helps Chris Carson. And then on top of that, he was in a plus matchup. But the fumbling concern is still there. We don't know how the coaches are going to react if Chris Carson puts the ball on the ground again, and competition is absolutely a concern. Rashad Penny hasn't been active, but he's likely to be active in Week five. That's what Pete Carroll said. So if you want to sell Chris Carson after his performance against Arizona. I can't fault you add Benjamin Watson. So Chris Herndon is not the only suspended tight end who's about to be done with his suspension. Benjamin Watson is two. He set to return in Week five for New England, and that gives the Patriots a much needed boost at the tight end position, because after four games, New England tight ends have seen a league low three point five percent target share. Now, maybe that has something to do with offensive scheme, but we can't ignore that it probably has something to do with talent as well. So Watson could end up being somewhat of a reliable pass catcher and a really good offense that's worthy of a waiver wire at in most leagues. Given the tight end landscape by Marquise Brown. You guys are probably sick of me talking about Hollywood Brown because I talked about him last week as well, and he definitely didn't live up to expectations last week. But he's a big play waiting to happen, and every number points to a monster game happening. He's seen at least nineteen percent of Baltimore's targets in every game played this year and he has a twenty five percent target share. Now, that's a great number for any wide receiver, let alone a rookie wide receiver who missed most of the offseason. And according to airyards dot Com, the only players with more air yards than Hollywood Brown so far are Mike Evans and Keenan Allen. So he's in an offense that's targeting him at a high rate and those targets are coming down the field. I'm going by process here. Process says to buy Hollywood Brown, sell AJ Brown. Now. I liked AJ Brown as a prospect entering the league. I just hated his situation and I still hate his situation. Marcus Mariota looked good in Week four, but he was also going up against Atlanta, who just lost Kean O'Neil. And even if Mariota continues to look great, it's tough to bank on Brown's usage. His highest snapshare of the season is just fifty percent and his target share is under sixteen percent. AJ Brown is probably the best pass catcher on this team. I actually said that earlier this season, but with the Laney Walker, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries also fighting for targets in a low volume offense. You can sell aj Brown after this good performance, but don't do it in dynasty leagues. Add Jalen Samuels and sell James Connor. So the Steelers featured a way more creative offense than Week four against Cincinnati, and they consistently put James Connor and Jylen Samuels on the field at the same time. Connor ended up missing a few plays because of an injury, but even still, he was on the field for sixty four point four percent of Pittsburgh snaps and Samuel's on the field for forty five point eight percent of them. But because Jalen Samuels is so versatile, both players ended up with ten carries in eight receptions, and I think that this is the time to trade away James Connor. The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and only the Dolphins have given up more fantasy points so far this year than the Bengals to running backs. Connor's value in fantasy football entering this season was that he looked like he was going to be the workhorse for Pittsburgh. He doesn't look to be the workhorse for Pittsburgh anymore, because the Steelers need to take this pressure off of Mason Rudolph in order for them to be effective, and all the while, Jalen Samuels needs to be added. He's available in seventy percent of Yahoo leagues, making him a top waiver wire option for most of you listening to this right now. Add the Carolina Panthers defense. So over the last two weeks, the Panthers have had really good matchups for their defensive line and they've gotten a lot of sacks as a result. They currently dying first in the league in sack rate, or the number of sacks a defense has divided by the number of pass attempts that they've seen. Now. Meanwhile, Jacksonville, who's their opponent this week, they rank just outside the top ten and sack rate offensively, so they've allowed sacks at a fairly high rate. This game is in Charlotte. The Panthers are listened to three and a half point favorites over on FanDuel's sportsbook, and it's a low over undergame. So Carolina, who's rostered in just fifteen percent of Yahoo leagues, They're a great defensive streaming choice. The sixteenth transaction this week that you can't get in the fifteen transactions column over on number fire dot com is to buy Alan Robinson. Look, I know that Mitch Trubisky is injured. We don't know what the situation is going to look like fully right now, but Chase Daniel isn't the worst backup in the world, and maybe Trubisky comes back sooner than expected. In fact, pro Footballdoc of pro footballdoc dot com wrote that Trubisky is quote very unlikely to play in London next week, but has a good chance to play a week seven after the week six by In my opinion, Trubisky could still face surgery in the off season, but should be back to full form in a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, Alan Robinson has seen at least twenty one percent of Chicago's targets in every game this year, and he currently has a twenty five point two percent target share. He hasn't scored, but based on his yardage total, we're looking at one point seven touchdowns. That's how many he should have. That one point seven difference is one of the higher ones in the league. So I still like Robinson, especially if you're a team that's performing well and you can take a short term hit. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and if you could do me a favor if you're on Apple Podcasts, leave me a rating and review, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. Talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Ten Trends episode.